College Basketball Pairwise NCAA Forecast #13

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , ,

If the season ended today -  (rankings here :)

The Field of 68.  Easier to present it this way – ignoring procedural seeding rules.  Conference champs (leaders, wins first tiebreak, pairwise ranking second) in caps.  This week, after looking at the criteria – it felt like we did need at least one “How did they play” component, so we’ve added the Pomeroy Ranking to the composition of the rankings.  Technically this is still only 20% of the crtieria, and at best 50% (since every team can be compared on both RPI and KenPom at the least).  So yes, this is not consistent with the frameworks earlier, but hopefully it is a better one in what the committee should be looking at.

An addtional feature, now that the conference tournaments have started – I tried to apply the bracketing rules now, and so this week’s 68 is internally consistent with what the tournament could look like:

East Region (Boston, Massachusetts – #1 Overall Seed)

(Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)

  • (1) SYRACUSE vs (16) STONY BROOK/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
  • (8) Virginia vs (9) HARVARD

(Albuquerque, New Mexico)

  • (4) UNLV vs (13) Oregon/South Dakota State
  • (5) Saint Louis vs (12) Virginia Commonwealth

(Omaha, Nebraska)

  • (2) Marquette vs (15) AKRON
  • (7) Southern Mississippi vs (10) Purdue

(Nashville, Tennessee)

  • (3) Missouri vs (14) DAVIDSON
  • (6) Creighton vs (11) Miami-FL

West Region (Phoenix, Arizona – #4 overall seed)

(Greensboro, North Carolina)

  • (1) North Carolina vs (16) VALPARAISO
  • (8) Iowa State vs (9) San Diego State

(Nashville, Tennessee)

  • (4) Georgetown vs (13) Northwestern/Xavier
  • (5) New Mexico vs (12) BELMONT

(Columbus, Ohio)

  • (2) MICHIGAN STATE vs (15) MONTANA
  • (7) California vs (10) SAINT MARY’S

(Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)

  • (3) TEMPLE vs (14) NEVADA
  • (6) MEMPHIS vs (11) Seton Hall

South Region (Atlanta, Georgia – #2 Overall seed)

(Louisville, Kentucky)

  • (1) KENTUCKY vs (16) LONG ISLAND
  • (8) Florida State vs (9) ORAL ROBERTS

(Portland, Oregon)

  • (4) Gonzaga vs (13) West Virginia
  • (5) Wisconsin vs (12) MIDDLE TENNESSEE

(Louisville, Kentucky)

  • (2) Ohio State vs (15) TEXAS-ARLINGTON
  • (7) Alabama vs (10) Kansas State

(Albuquerque, New Mexico)

  • (3) Baylor vs (14) WASHINGTON
  • (6) Louisville vs (11) Brigham Young

Midwest Region (Saint Louis, Missouri – #3 Overall Seed)

(Greensboro, North Carolina)

  • (1) DUKE vs (16) UNC-ASHEVILLE/SAVANNAH STATE
  • (8) MURRAY STATE vs (9) Connecticut

(Portland, Oregon)

  • (4) Indiana vs (13) Texas
  • (5) Florida vs (12) IONA

(Omaha, Nebraska)

  • (2) KANSAS vs (15) BUCKNELL
  • (7) Vanderbilt vs (10) Notre Dame

(Columbus, Ohio)

  • (3) WICHITA STATE vs (14) DREXEL
  • (6) Michigan vs (11) LONG BEACH STATE

Last Four In: Oregon, Northwestern, Xavier, South Dakota State

First Four Out: Cincinnati, Arizona, Dayton, Saint Joseph’s

Next Four Out: South Florida, Ohio, Colorado State, Mississippi State

Multi-Bid Leagues

  • Pac 12 (4)
  • Atlantic 10 (3)
  • Big Ten (7)
  • Big 12 (6)
  • Big East (8)
  • Colonial (2)
  • ACC (5)
  • West Coast (3)
  • Summit (2)
  • SEC (4)
  • Conference USA (2)
  • Mountain West (3)

The NIT Field (the regular season champs below the current at-large cut line, and the remaining at-larges without a home … as spots are clinched, at-large teams join the pool)

  1. Drexel
  2. Cincinnati
  3. Arizona
  4. Dayton
  5. Washington
  6. Saint Joseph’s
  7. South Florida
  8. Ohio
  9. Davidson
  10. Colorado State
  11. Mississippi State
  12. NC State
  13. Illinois
  14. LSU
  15. Cleveland State
  16. Denver
  17. Northern Iowa
  18. New Mexico State
  19. Tulsa
  20. Central Florida
  21. Akron
  22. Massachusetts
  23. George Mason
  24. Texas-Arlington
  25. Bucknell
  26. Montana
  27. Valparaiso
  28. Long Island
  29. UNC-Asheville
  30. Stony Brook
  31. Mississippi Valley State
  32. Savannah State

 

 

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #6

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , ,

With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (2) Heat (25-7)
  2. (4) Thunder (25-7)
  3. (1) Bulls (26-8)
  4. (3) Sixers (20-12)
  5. (5) Spurs (23-9)
  6. (9) Mavericks (20-12)
  7. (6) Hawks (19-13)
  8. (8) Nuggets (18-15)
  9. (7) Blazers (17-16)
  10. (10) Lakers (19-13)
  11. (15) Magic (21-12)
  12. (11) Clippers (19-11)
  13. (13) Rockets (19-14)
  14. (16) Grizzlies (18-15)
  15. (14) Pacers (19-12)
  16. (12) Celtics (15-16)
  17. (17) Timberwolves (16-17)
  18. (19) Warriors (12-17)
  19. (18) Jazz (15-16)
  20. (20) Bucks (13-20)
  21. (22) Suns (14-19)
  22. (21) Knicks (16-17)
  23. (24) Hornets (7-24)
  24. (23) Cavaliers (12-17)
  25. (25) Raptors (9-23)
  26. (26) Kings (10-21)
  27. (28) Nets (10-24)
  28. (29) Pistons (11-22)
  29. (27) Wizards (7-25)
  30. (30) Bobcats (4-27)

Some notes:

  1. Who is that masked man at #4.  As Jim Ross might say, MY GAWD!!!  IT’S THE SAN ANTONIO SPURS!!  Somehow or another, they are a factor again – rising all the way up to the lofty #5 position.  Of course this should not be surprising us anymore – the Spurs decade long run of contendorhood is pretty amazing.  What is more interesting though is how stereotypes tend to work.  If you dismiss the Spurs – or just don’t think of them – you might lean on what you remember from 2003 and 2007 as to who they are – withering defense and Tim Duncan.  However, this team – assembling so many wins against a good schedule – is actually not a good defensive team.  It is weird to say that the Spurs are an offensive team – and certainly their below average pace hides the explosiveness – but this is a team that wins by scoring (6th on offense).  In particular, they win because they can shoot – 4th in total FG%, 3rd best three point percentage while making the 5th most (per possession) – it carries them to the 5th best true shooting team in the league.  The shot generation is average – they don’t recover many of their few misses, but they hardly turn it over so they are getting a solid number of looks.  On defense, they actually resemble the 2007 Suns more than the 2007 Spurs, where their real strength is not fouling (tops in the league), allowing the 8th fewest makes from 3 and 2nd in the league in defensive rebounding.  They force a lot of 2 point shots and recover misses – which allows their defense to be meh (instead of bad).
  2. And while we get a view of the top with the Spurs, let’s go down low and appreciate the awesome level of badness that is the Charlotte Bobcats.  At 4-27, the record is pristine to be sure.  They are on pace to win more than the 9-73 rate the 1973 Sixers team did.  Indeed, I expect some winning to pick up as Gerald Henderson returns and the other teams start to care less and focus on playoff positioning.  This is all crap we know.  In the same vein, the Bobcats are currently rating a staggering -10.7 points.  Let’s put it this way, the Wizards – also terrible at 7-25, would be nearly 5 point favorites – it’s really that bad.  The Bobcats lack of talent is obvious – seriously if Kemba Walker is your beacon of hope (Walker is a nice prospect – but a Vinnie Johnson upside) what can you say?  Obviously the Bobcats are the worst offense in the league, alternating poor shooting with poor offensive rebounding.  They are the worst at making shots they get, and 23rd in getting shots of any kind.  What is a surprise to a degree though is defensively they are also pretty terrible, allowing the 28th best FG% overall and being 2nd from the bottom in forcing turnovers along with a desultory 24th in rebounding.  Really the team is just bad in an admirably consistent way.  Even the Timberwolves of last year for instance, estimably awful, but capable at recovering misses.  Charlotte can’t even do that right.

College Basketball Pairwise NCAA Forecast #12

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , ,

If the season ended today -  (rankings here :)

The Field of 68.  Easier to present it this way – ignoring procedural seeding rules.  Conference champs (leaders, wins first tiebreak, pairwise ranking second) in caps.  This week, after looking at the criteria – it felt like we did need at least one “How did they play” component, so we’ve added the Pomeroy Ranking to the composition of the rankings.  Technically this is still only 20% of the crtieria, and at best 50% (since every team can be compared on both RPI and KenPom at the least).  So yes, this is not consistent with the frameworks earlier, but hopefully it is a better one in what the committee should be looking at:

BOSTON

  • (1) SYRACUSE vs (16) LONG ISLAND/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
  • (8) ORAL ROBERTS vs (9) Iowa State
  • (4) Saint Louis vs (13) Oregon
  • (5) Indiana vs (12) Purdue
  • (2) MISSOURI vs (15) DAVIDSON
  • (7) UNLV vs (10) BYU
  • (3) WICHITA STATE vs (14) AKRON
  • (6) SOUTHERN MISS vs (11) SAINT MARY’S

PHOENIX

  • (1) MICHIGAN STATE vs (16) WEBER STATE
  • (8) Virginia vs (9) Connecticut
  • (4) Georgetown vs (13) NEVADA
  • (5) Wisconsin vs (12) IONA
  • (2) North Carolina vs (15) VALPARAISO
  • (7) Memphis vs (10) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
  • (3) Baylor vs (14) DREXEL
  • (6) Louisville vs (11) San Diego State

ATLANTA

  • (1) KENTUCKY vs (16) VERMONT/SAVANNAH STATE
  • (8) Alabama vs (9) Notre Dame
  • (4) Florida vs (13) Miami-FL/Arizona
  • (5) Florida State vs (12) LONG BEACH STATE
  • (2) Kansas vs (15) TEXAS-ARLINGTON
  • (7) Creighton vs (10) Kansas State
  • (3) Marquette vs (14) BELMONT
  • (6) CALIFORNIA vs (11) Texas

SAINT LOUIS

  • (1) DUKE vs (16) NC-ASHEVILLE
  • (8) Vanderbilt vs (9) West Virginia
  • (4) TEMPLE vs (13) Cincinnati/Washington
  • (5) Michigan vs (12) VCU
  • (2) Ohio State vs (15) BUCKNELL
  • (7) HARVARD vs (10) Seton Hall
  • (3) NEW MEXICO vs (14) MURRAY STATE
  • (6) Gonzaga vs (11) Northwestern

First four out: Xavier, South Dakota State, Saint Joseph’s, Massachusetts

Next four out: NC State, LSU, South Florida, Colorado State

Multi-Bid Leagues

  • Pac 12 (4)
  • Big East (9)
  • ACC (5)
  • Big Ten (7)
  • Mountain West (3)
  • Big 12 (6)
  • West Coast (3)
  • SEC (4)
  • Conference USA (2)
  • Missouri Valley (2)
  • Atlantic 10 (2)

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #5

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , ,

With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (1) Bulls (23-7)
  2. (3) Heat (22-7)
  3. (2) Sixers (20-9)
  4. (4) Thunder (21-6)
  5. (8) Spurs (19-9)
  6. (6) Hawks (18-10)
  7. (5) Blazers (15-13)
  8. (7) Nuggets (16-12)
  9. (13) Mavericks (18-11)
  10. (9) Lakers (16-12)
  11. (11) Clippers (17-9)
  12. (10) Celtics (15-12)
  13. (14) Rockets (16-12)
  14. (12) Pacers (17-10)
  15. (17) Magic (18-11)
  16. (15) Grizzlies (14-14)
  17. (16) Timberwolves (13-16)
  18. (18) Jazz (14-13)
  19. (21) Warriors (11-14)
  20. (19) Bucks (12-16)
  21. (22) Knicks (13-15)
  22. (20) Suns (12-16)
  23. (24) Cavaliers (10-16)
  24. (23) Hornets (5-23)
  25. (25) Raptors (9-20)
  26. (26) Kings (10-17)
  27. (28) Wizards (6-22)
  28. (27) Nets (8-21)
  29. (29) Pistons (8-21)
  30. (30) Bobcats (3-25)

Some notes:

  1. We start with a trip to Oakland and the league’s most Quixotic fans – Warriors fans.  For anybody who watched their shocking upset of the Mavericks in 2007, the ability of the fans to lift a team is palpable there – it sounded like the old Chicago Stadium, and that’s saying something.  Alas, that upset has been the extent of the highlights on the court.  Indeed the last few years we have had bad teams, but entertaining ones that could light up the scoreboard.  With Mark Jackson taking over as coach, there was a commitment to a more defense, championship timber club.  What is interesting though is that the defensive culture in Golden State is still as lax as ever – while the offense is actually much better.  The numbers are a bit muted as these Warriors are middle of the road in terms of pace – but this is the most efficient offense (relative to the league) Golden State has had recently.  What is particularly interesting comparing side by side is how little things have changed.  They still shoot the three both very well and very frequently.  They still don’t get to the line hardly at all – and they are a pretty shaky rebounding team (and indeed substantially worse offensively).  However – they take care of the ball a bit better and are shooting their 2-pointers a lot better, enough to be 4th in the league in FG%.  This is also though a harbinger of rough times maybe – 2 pt FG% is pretty fickle, and one thinks there might be some regression coming.  Scanning the personnel, it is not like there is a huge change in the shape of the offense.  The defense as mentioned before is as bad as ever – and they are still a horrendous defensive rebounding side, and are near the bottom in sending opponents to the line.  Jackson has the team gambling less defensively – but it has not shown in the final results.  The Warriors have a ways to go for the positive changes in ownership to reflect in the product.
  2. Checking in at 18-11, and starting to move up the ladder are the Magic.  Of course 2 weeks ago, we left them with a disastrous week, featuring a 56 point outing at Boston and blown 27 point lead hosting Boston (yay Boston).  Since then though the Magic have perked up.  Really, we always hear about the psychodrama surrounding Dwight Howard – but possibly he has found some contentment (or resignation) in the current situation.  Despite the Magic’s offensive issues a couple of weeks back, where they had been struggling was on the defensive end of the floor.  Last year the Magic were 3rd in the league defensively despite having very little defensive muscle besides Howard.  Earlier in the year the team had been scuffling, but we see them up to 12th now.  The Magic in the past have focused on defending without fouling (not gambling) and superior rebounding.  This year, the rebounding has been there but the attention to detail in defense has not – but it has improved.  Magic up to a reasonable 11th in FG%, and so up their fortunes have come with it.
  3. This week’s edition would be incomplete without noting the jump the Knicks have made.  I have no real metric argument here, just a chance to rant a bit on Jeremy Lin.  The Knicks themselves are still a shaky offensive team with a surprisingly good defense considering D’Antoni’s reputation (2nd in the league in forced turnovers, 7th in defensive rebounding – they just don’t give up a ton of looks at the basket which makes up for their meh FG%).  But Lin of course has had the best first 4 starts in league history.  You have to be realistic of course – he is not this good, very few players are.  That said, he is 6’3″ 200 lbs – basically Chauncey Billups’ size.  He has a lot of steals, rebounds, gets to the line a lot.  Unlike most small school kids, he is an elite athlete.  He needs to shoot better, but that you can improve.  Lin is a rotation caliber PG right now, and the Knicks have none of those – and there is no reason he cannot be a solid starter for a long time.
  4. The big move up this week has been Dallas.  At 18-11, it is amazing to see Rick Carlisle cobble together this start despite the issues they had with conditioning and injuries.  More amazing is how despite losing Tyson Chandler, the Mavericks have remade themselves into a defensive juggernaut.  They are 18-11 against a solid schedule despite being 20th in offense (still not getting to the line, still not getting second shots, but now missing the shots they DO take).  Instead the historically underwhelming (or undervalued) Mavs D is carrying them this year.  Yeah Odom has sucked on offense, but he is a very useful defender.  So is Vince Carter despite his reputation, and Brendan Haywood has successfully impersonated a competent C this year.  All that adds up to a team that is 3rd in FG defense and 5th in forcing turnovers.  The Mavs are top 10 in TS% and shot prevention – and that has allowed them to survive themselves.  Given the reputations and past performances of their top guys on offense – this is nothing but good news for the long term.

College Basketball Pairwise NCAA Forecast #11

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , ,

If the season ended today -  (rankings here :)

The Field of 68.  Easier to present it this way – ignoring procedural seeding rules.  Conference champs (leaders, wins first tiebreak, pairwise ranking second) in caps:

BOSTON

  • (1) SYRACUSE v (16) NORFOLK STATE/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
  • (8) Memphis vs (9) Seton Hall
  • (4) Temple vs (13) West Virginia
  • (5) Creighton vs (12) Arkansas
  • (2) Baylor vs (15) BUCKNELL
  • (7) Florida State vs (10) NC State
  • (3) Marquette vs (14) DAVIDSON
  • (6) SAINT MARY’S vs (11) Connecticut

PHOENIX

  • (1) MISSOURI vs (16) VALPARAISO
  • (8) San Diego State vs (9) Iowa State
  • (4) Gonzaga vs (13) MURRAY STATE
  • (5) Michigan vs (12) Minnesota
  • (2) North Carolina vs (15) LONG ISLAND
  • (7) Vanderbilt vs (10) HARVARD
  • (3) Louisville vs (14) LONG BEACH STATE
  • (6) Wisconsin vs (11) Oregon

ATLANTA

  • (1) KENTUCKY vs (16) UNC-ASHEVILLE/STONY BROOK
  • (8) CALIFORNIA vs (9) Alabama
  • (4) UNLV vs (13) Mississippi/Arizona
  • (5) SOUTHERN MISS vs (12) NEVADA
  • (2) Kansas vs (15) WEBER STATE
  • (7) Virginia vs (10) IONA
  • (3) Michigan State vs (14) AKRON
  • (6) Saint Louis vs (11) Notre Dame

SAINT LOUIS

  • (1) DUKE vs (16) MERCER
  • (8) New Mexico vs (9) Mississippi State
  • (4) WICHITA STATE vs (13) Washington/Northern Iowa
  • (5) Indiana vs (12) Kansas State
  • (2) OHIO STATE vs (15) TEXAS-ARLINGTON
  • (7) ORAL ROBERTS vs (10) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
  • (3) Georgetown vs (14) VCU
  • (6) Florida vs (11) Brigham Young

First four out: Miami-FL, Xavier, Illinois, Massachusetts

Next four out: Northwestern, Saint Joseph’s, Purdue, Texas

Multi-Bid Leagues

  • Pac 12 (4)
  • Missouri Valley (3)
  • SEC (7)
  • Big East (8)
  • Big 12 (5)
  • Big Ten (6)
  • West Coast (3)
  • ACC (5)
  • Conference USA (2)
  • Mountain West (3)
  • Atlantic 10 (2)

On Whitney Houston

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , ,

“Didn’t We Almost Have It All?” obviously now becomes a certain piece of dark irony.  It was amazing scanning my social network how much of a cultural thud the death of Whitney Houston made.  Of course then I put on her classic performance where she turned David Letterman into a pile of goo:

Really this video kind of contained everything – the beauty, the voice, the charisma.  Seeing her in this setting was the same sort of chills basketball evaluators could get seeing Shaquille O’Neal at LSU or a film critic seeing Boyz In da Hood.  This sort of total package does not come along often – to say the least.  I mean seriously – when Simon Cowell was berating American Idol contestants about “star presence” or whatever, he was really describing Whitney.

What is interesting ruminating about her death and the reaction is that, well, the normal sort of thing that comes with somebody dying young does not seem to apply.  For instance, when Amy Winehouse passed fairly recently, that death was also rather inevitable.  However, she was still only 27, and many people had fucked their lives up royally at that age to pull their shit together.  There was definitely the sense that another opus was in her – and possibly a happy life, if she did not die in the meantime.  Whitney offered no such promise anymore – her ghastly work on the Bobby Brown reality show gave that game up (as well as underlining the sort of negative stereotype bukaki that set the world up for the Real Housewives of Atlanta)  In some ways the fact that she had not been really relevant culturally for nearly a decade was cleansing I think.  Her old fans had their chance to give up on her and toss her into the “missed opportunity” pile in 2002.  Now her death can be met with an elegiac shrug and some gratitude towards the music that she did produce.  (even if we are hearing a bit too much of “I Will Always Love You” compared to the above)

Yeah, she should have been the Streisand for folks my age.  Yeah, she had a refinement and perceived “class” that set her apart.  But it is a testament to the sheer amount of talent she had that she could more or less squander most of her gifts and potential, and still have a career prolific enough that fans can be nostalgic for something considerable today.  She was not an auteur, or a songwriter of note, but that voice – you don’t get that everyday.  Fortunately we’ve had a decade to absorb that THAT Whitney was gone forever.

Mad Men: Season 3 (SPOILERS!!)

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , ,

When we last left the gang at Sterling-Cooper, the firm was being acquired by a parent company in England.  Meanwhile, Don Draper’s own affairs continued to get muddier as he and his wife started drifting apart but returned together as she got pregnant.  Peggy Olson, the other REAL protagonist, continues to rise up the ranks and push imperfectly to find herself.  She had to give up a child, and finally Pete Campbell – who was the inseminator – got to hear it from her.

This third season of Mad Men could be called the series’ strongest season yet – but that is hard to say.  Moreover, this is definitely the season where a lot of the threads started to pay off.  Some of the social forces and interactions that were threatening to invade their worlds do so – and the impact on the corresponding interactions and whatnot is at its most fascinating.  Some specific observations (click on links for Season 1 and Season 2 reviews):

  1. Really the stories seem to revolve around agency.  Betty is still pretty darn weird – but the lack of agency she feels makes sense.  After all, she was raised to be a housewife or whatever constitutes virtue for a gal raised in the 40s/50s.  She is a daughter, then Don’s wife.  She owns NOTHING, and she is clearly unhappy.  However, with so few outlets to get anything done, both socially and actually – consider the advice she gets about divorce (she is pretty screwed without consent).  Her acting out makes sense.
  2. On the other hand, the catalyst for her making a move with Don was one of the stranger sequences of the year.  Indeed the entire world (within this framework) reaction to the Kennedy Assassination was one of the most significant storylines of the season.  That Betty would be shaken by it makes total sense, but Betty’s emotional reaction and the transition to her own life, all of that rang false.  Part of it is the necessary simplifying about how large events drive personal ones – but most of it is January Jones’ poor acting.
  3. Of course at the center of this is what has to be the central scene of the entire series to date – where Don confesses his reality – the whole thing – to Betty.  Her reactions here seem false, but I think a lot of that is poor acting choices more than anything.  She does not seem appropriately blown away by what Don says – and yeah while he does lie a lot, it is hard to make up a whopper like this.  The lack of tenderness she showed as he actually did pour his soul out seems to belie their relationship.  She seems very cold to me here.  Of course my wife has not revealed that she has stolen a breast cancer victim’s identity back in Northern Ohio – so what do I know?
  4. The question of agency also lingers with Joan, the well endowed Christina Hendricks.  For her, it is at home trying to stand by a man who is doing his residency and trying to become a full time surgeon.  At work – she has all sorts of power as head of the secretarial pool and office manager.  There is agency there, but at home she has to try to stand by her man, and fit into a paradigm – including leaving Sterling Cooper.  Her farewell of course leads to the most surprising and funny surprise of the whole season.  The horrible special effects were a great touch.
  5. Peggy is fighting uphill still – she DOES have ownership of her life.  It has been hard though.  In the way that she still has to keep having people take her seriously – and she is pretty clearly the best creative there of Don’s minions.  Alas, her personal life seems to have a lot of bad decisions – although the show forgets to circle back on her affair with Duck.  The dynamic between Don and Peggy is very interesting – Don clearly is very fond of her work, but is also capable of cruelty – especially when she tries to stand up for herself.
  6. It really is Don’s ugliest side – aside from possible alcoholism (though that describes a lot of the ad men) – and it hurts to watch him be cruel and short to folks like Peggy only because we see how complicated and unhappy his situation is.  He has reserves of tenderness and sadness – but when a woman comes close to having control, to “speak her mind” Don snaps back.  Really Don clearly has issues with losing control over his life and his narrative.  When he snaps back – it is not pretty.
  7. Still, the lawnmower – wow.
  8. The main business of course with Sterling Cooper was the pending sale and reforming of the firm.  How all that unfolds is one of the neat episodes of the season.  Of course it (somehow inevitably) involves Joan being in the right place at the right time.  I am still surprised so much of the band stayed together.

5150 and Craft vs Crackle

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , ,

As you might have noticed, Van Halen has been coming up in some recent listening.  That the pickup in my IPod use coincides with an apparent new album coming out is coincidence.  Indeed, a review of their new work simply makes one pine for times when they were still throwin the fastball.  As everybody who grew up in the 80s know of course is that Van Halen really was two distinct movements – the David Lee Roth chapter and the Sammy Hagar one – and while the former is more fondly remembered, the latter was perhaps a better crafted band, and the contrast between the two spawn interesting notions about music in general.

A lot of these questions came into my head as I put on the first Van Halen Sammy Hagar album, 5150, which stands up very nicely as arguably the band’s best album – and one of the most professional of rock albums generally.  What is interesting about the album is that – well, I am not sure how to put it, so let me back up.  Consider X, a punk band from Los Angeles whose record of the same name was touched on a while back in this section of the blogosphere.  Without pretentiously quoting myself, that review noted a certain endearing lack of polish.  There are some real good songs, and a couple that showed much more finesse than you’d think – but what drove the train was the passion and palpable energy.  They wanted to be something special, and it courses through the album.  There are flaws, and a lot noise – but the album works both in spite of it and because of it.  5150 on the other hand, certainly does not sound like it’s ripped out from anybody’s soul.  What we actually have here is 1980′s rock-pop craftsmanship of the highest order.  The album and its charms owe not the crackling firepower of the Sex Pistols, but more to the pristine production and meticulous perfection of Steely Dan.  There is not a bad track to be found, indeed consider a few of the songs that come after the midpoint of the record:

In a 1986 rock-pop sort of way, these are really well made songs.  Eddie Van Halen’s guitar, as noted previously was all time great – and for the derisive “Van Hagar” bleatings you get on internet forums and such, Sammy Hagar was a much more polished singer than David Lee Roth.  Also you have Michael Anthony not just providing bass but the layer of high backing vocals which make the Van Halen harmonizing among the most distinctive.  It is really how their harmony sounds that drives the “this is a Van Halen song” sentiment home.  Now what is interesting to ponder is whether this is sufficient?  Is this made with love sufficiently?  This is a stark contrast to more flawed but archetypally bad-ass rock and roll that we have grown up with.  But can just a bunch of great, well produced songs be valued too?  I am not sure the term “corporate rock” applies – but there is stuff like this or Steely Dan or Peter Frampton or – what we have is not the garage band kickassness, but the sense of pros doing really pro stuff.

PLAYOFFS??!! The Big Ten is Talkin PLAYOFFS??!!

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , ,

Well, the first of the Plus-1 four team playoff ideas has leaked.  That the Big Ten is choosing it is not a surprise, seeing as they want to get ahead of anything that could pillory the Rose Bowl’s sanctity or whatever.  Indeed – their plan is only mildly interesting.  Two national semifinals, hosted at campus sites.  This largely leaves the Rose Bowl in tact – but the other big Bowl Games would have to be discouraged.  It is one thing to have your game’s prestige hijacked by the national title – but another to have four possible games hijacked.  Of course, this plan is in an embryonic state – university presidents will have to make the final call – and probably would not be enacted anytime soon.  However, it is another plan in the foundation of moving college football toward a four team playoff.

Now – a couple folks on Twitter noted other more democratic options – an 8 team field with only conference winners, or a 16 team field with the 11 BCS conference winners.  This makes it feel like a March Madness setup allegedly – but that is silly.  It is the large school at-larges that allow March Madness to work.  I doubt that people want to see a really good team sit at home at the expense of a C-USA team getting a seed.  Sure, they say – win your league , but the leagues are not populated with good teams equally.  I am not making a pro huge mediocre program here – but certainly Alabama should not have been shut out of ANY national title conversation.  Even a 16 team field is 5 at-larges, only 31% of the field – a far smaller proposition than college basketball for one.  Freeing bowls to make their own choices, and having two teams from a conference in the Final Four never killed anybody.  Sure, 4 is a small field, but as Stewart Mandel documents – honestly, how many times has the #4/#5 distinction been THAT big a deal.  Somebody will always be excluded.

That said, the Big Ten idea of campus semifinals is flawed.  First, it would reduce upsets – not that it is a big deal, but good for television.  Second, it would seriously marginalize the bowls which are marginalized to begin with.  The Bowl Structure is flat out not going to change, so no point pretending otherwise.  So instead, take the BCS bowls, roll them into the national title, and give a couple of advantages to the Top 2 teams.  Also, exclude conference runners up from the Top 2 and you are all set.  Will this exclude teams from non BCS leagues?  No.  Boise State has less room for error, but if Boise State was good enough to get to the Top 4, no doubt that a bowl and a TV network would be tickled.  The good news is the playoff is inevitable, just all these silly steps in the middle.

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #4

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , ,

With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (3) Bulls (21-6)
  2. (2) Sixers (18-7)
  3. (1) Heat (18-6)
  4. (6) Thunder (19-5)
  5. (8) Blazers (14-11)
  6. (4) Hawks (16-9)
  7. (5) Nuggets (15-10)
  8. (9) Spurs (17-9)
  9. (11) Lakers (14-11)
  10. (12) Celtics (13-10)
  11. (10) Clippers (15-7)
  12. (15) Pacers (16-7)
  13. (7) Mavericks (14-11)
  14. (14) Rockets (14-11)
  15. (17) Grizzlies (12-13)
  16. (13) Timberwolves (12-12)
  17. (18) Magic (15-10)
  18. (16) Jazz (13-10)
  19. (19) Bucks (10-13)
  20. (21) Suns (10-14)
  21. (22) Warriors (8-13)
  22. (24) Knicks (10-15)
  23. (20) Hornets (4-21)
  24. (25) Cavaliers (9-13)
  25. (23) Raptors (8-18)
  26. (28) Kings (9-15)
  27. (26) Nets (8-18)
  28. (27) Wizards (5-20)
  29. (28) Pistons (6-20)
  30. (30) Bobcats (3-21)

Some notes:

  1. Back in the top spot is Chicago – they have been there before this year, they finished the regular season last year #1.  Put simply, there is something to lean on here.  That said, as the Miami playoff showed, the offense was a problem.  The Bulls won last year with a combination of the league’s best defense and an offense that was above average – much the same formula the Celtics took to the title when Tom Thibodeau was assisting Doc Rivers.  That said, unlike the Celtics – the Bulls were in 2011 one of the league’s better shot generating teams.  The Bulls were 4th in the league at offensive rebounding and while the turnover rate was below average, it was enough to give them a lot of shots at the basket.  Despite a mediocre TS team, they were able to squeeze some extra juice out of their possessions.  What is interesting this year is the turnaround their offense HAS made – and it gives some hope for them advancing further in the playoffs.  The Bulls simply put, are making more shots.  Replacing Keith Bogans’ corpse with Richard Hamilton’s corpse has helped.  Also, a shocking improvement (probably unsustainable) by CJ Watson has upped the ante too – along with Derrick Rose upping his own FG%.  The team is just shooting better, their 3 point percentage has also gone up to 7th in the league – and while they get to the line less, it is by no means a huge drop off.  The TS side of the formula has gone up – while the already excellent shot generation is even better.  The Bulls are tops in the league in offensive rebounding, and they take care of the ball much better this season … all this leads to the 2nd best shot generating team in basketball.  So the Bulls are getting more shots up, and making more shots – this bodes well.
  2. The Suns … 20th in offense, it’s inconceivable.  Let’s move on.
  3. The 6th ranked Hawks did not have a particularly good week – and they are showing some possible regression to the mean here.  Al Horford is a really good player, and it is hard to imagine them being able to truck on without him so fearlessly.  But this is a good team, and that’s still 16 games they don’t have to win again.  The pieces are there to make the playoffs and possibly win a round considering the non-Miami and Chicago flotsam in the conference.  What is remarkable is the Hawks have been a legitimately good team this year with virtually no turnover from last year – when they were a searingly mediocre one.  Obviously the first real change is in personnel where Jeff Teague has showed he can be a legitimately decent NBA point guard.  If you saw him at Wake Forest, the elite level athletic ability has not abated.  He has been very strong defensively and has run a solid offense – not the elite level they were in 2010 on that end of the floor, but a more than estimable 11th.  However, their big leap has been defensively.  A year ago, this was an area of mediocrity, while now it is a strength.  Part of it is having Teague to check point guards.  Part of it is having an elite defender like Kirk Hinrich to be able to match up with a variety of alignments.  Part of it is Marvin Williams settling into becoming a good rotation player, and Josh Smith limiting his mental vacations.  But whatever the cause, the same roster which only was 11th in TS allowed due to its ability to resist committing fouls and defend the three, the roster which was near the bottom of the league in shot prevention – is in the top ten in both.  The Hawks have defended two point shots better this year while still fouling very little.  Moreover, they have risen from 29th in forcing turnovers a year ago to a solid 14th.  If the Hawks continue to defend this well – and really Josh Smith has to be the pillar here – they will not go away.
  4. The Clippers acquisition of Kenyon Martin is a quiet gem of a move.  The team clearly has a giant pile of bupkus behind Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan.  Everybody knows that.  But what everybody might not know is that the front court has also been quietly atrocious defensively.  Griffin has not shown an ability to be a high effort defender, and Jordan for his shot blocking clearly has not learned any of the Tim Duncan calculus on when is a good time to take a chance.  What is interesting is that despite an elite defensive backcourt – the Clippers are a pretty bad defensive team, and bad in a surprisingly across the board way.  They have issues defending the two, the three (28th), they foul too much (28th) and they aren’t especially distinguished at recovering misses when they DO happen (19th) or forcing turnovers (19th).  The offense has had to carry them and largely it has.  Martin, who has been an elite defensive big his whole life HAS to be able to help this somewhat.  Of course, part of defense is scheme and coaching and scouting, and this is still the cheap-ass CLIPPERS we are talking about.  If you think Vinnie Del Negro is an incompetent coach, the defensive level here might be something your lawyer might use in a trial.