College Basketball Pairwise NCAA Forecast #8

If the season ended today -  (rankings here :)

The Field of 68.  Easier to present it this way – ignoring procedural seeding rules.  Conference champs (leaders, wins first tiebreak, pairwise ranking second) in caps:

BTW: Got a lot of traffic from Seton Hall fans for having them as a #2 seed.  Hey, as of last Sunday their resume was excellent.  I am not saying it will hold or trying to “predict” – more a “should” bracket than a “will”.  Either way, they have been excellent this season – enjoy!

BOSTON

  • (1) SYRACUSE vs (16) UNC-ASHEVILLE/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
  • (8) Florida vs (9) Virginia
  • (4) DAYTON vs (13) Oregon/Iowa State
  • (5) West Virginia vs (12) Colorado State
  • (2) North Carolina vs (15) AKRON
  • (7) Michigan vs (10) MURRAY STATE
  • (3) CREIGHTON vs (14) LONG BEACH STATE
  • (6) Wichita State vs (11) North Carolina State

PHOENIX

  • (1) Missouri vs (16) GEORGE MASON
  • (8) CALIFORNIA vs (9) IONA
  • (4) Gonzaga vs (13) DAVIDSON
  • (5) Southern Miss vs (12) Mississippi
  • (2) KANSAS vs (15) NORFOLK STATE
  • (7) Louisville vs (10) Minnesota
  • (3) Marquette vs (14) CENTRAL FLORIDA
  • (6) UConn vs (11) MIDDLE TENNESSEE

ATLANTA

  • (1) KENTUCKY vs (16) TEXAS-ARLINGTON/BOSTON UNIVERSITY
  • (8) Vanderbilt vs (9) Florida State
  • (4) Michigan State vs (13) Memphis/Purdue
  • (5) Temple vs (12) Northern Iowa
  • (2) OHIO STATE vs (15) BELMONT
  • (7) Illinois vs (10) Alabama
  • (3) Seton Hall vs (14) WEBER STATE
  • (6) Mississippi State vs (11) HARVARD

SAINT LOUIS

  • (1) DUKE vs (16) LONG ISLAND
  • (8) SAINT MARY’S vs (9) SAN DIEGO STATE
  • (4) UNLV vs (13) CLEVELAND STATE
  • (5) Indiana vs (12) Arkansas
  • (2) Baylor vs (15) BUCKNELL
  • (7) Wisconsin vs (10) ORAL ROBERTS
  • (3) Georgetown vs (14) NEVADA
  • (6) Kansas State vs (11) Xavier

First four out: New Mexico, Saint Louis, South Dakota State, Denver

Next four out: Marshall, Northwestern, Ohio, Stanford

Multi-Bid Leagues

  • Big 12 (5)
  • Big Ten (8)
  • Conference USA (3)
  • Pac 12 (2)
  • Mountain West (3)
  • Missouri Valley (3)
  • SEC (7)
  • Atlantic 10 (3)
  • West Coast (2)
  • Big East (7)

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #2

Well, since the last time we did this report, the league has crammed in another 116 games.  As we had pointed out then, the effects of the lockout and the accelerated offseason showed in some pretty shoddy basketball.  Well with more data, through 241 games the league PPP is still at 0.998, a far cry from last year’s 1.04.  Put another way, currently only 6 teams are above that number this season compared to 15 a year ago at this time.  Just like last week, we can see other metrics.

  • Turnover Rate: Last Year: 15.3% of possessions, This Year: 16.0%
  • TS%: Last Year: 54%, This Year: 52.1%
  • Shots per possession: Last Year: 0.962, This Year: 0.958.

With even two more weeks, the trends have been getting worse, instead of better.  The turnovers remain up, while the shooting is going down, and so the leaguewide scoring has gone down with it.  Just like we mentioned last time, it is tempting to attribute this to great defense – but given the lack of cohesion on so many rosters and the limited time together, it feels a lot like poor offense is much more to blame.  One place this might be evident is leaguewide foul shooting.  A year ago it was 76.4%, while this year it is down to 74.5%.  There is no reason for this to be the case other than guys just shooting poorly.  The league 3P% (35.6 to 34.0) has dipped as well.  So if you think that there have been a lot of low scoring, high turnover, poor shooting games – it’s not just you.

That said, despite the hide your eyes bad level of offensive play, and the way too aggressive schedule – the league is starting to unfold.  The latest rankings are in a permanent home this year, so hopefully you can skip right to the good stuff without reading all this jibberish.  However, if you are reading this – might as well get some observations out of the way:

  1. The Sixers hold the number one position again.  Granted, their losses to the Knicks and Heat do not give much confidence that this is the team’s true level.  However, they have clobbered the flotsam on their schedule.  120-89 over the Wizards, 112-85 over the Kings, etc etc.  This has led to that very lofty league’s #1 defensive ranking.  The Sixers are still excelling at preventing good looks, as their league best TS% allowed shows.  In particular, they continue to do a sensational job at limiting high value shots – leading the league in fewest three pointers allowed and 3rd in FT rate allowed.  That said, in the blowout loss to Miami, the Sixers allowed 54% shooting, 7 threes made in 89 possessions and 21 FTs, all much higher than their lofty levels, and all actually closer to last in the league than anything.  The Sixers seem to be above their heads, but the empirical case for them is still strong.
  2. This early in the season it is interesting to note teams whose rankings and record do not match.  A glaring case is the Indiana Pacers, whom the writer-sphere seems to think is a team to watch and whatever.  Certainly their depth is a virtue in this short season, and they have a number of good, close wins – last night at the Lakers most prominently.  The defense has been excellent, in particular leading the league in FG defense.  Without any other sensational fundamentals, their 41% FG allowed has carried them to the league’s 5th rated defense.  However, their scoring margin has not been that eye popping, mostly because of a gang which so far has not shot straight.  The 41% FG allowed is great.  The 41.9% FG of their own?  Yikes.  Fortunately, they have shot the three well (4th in the league and could stand to shoot it more) and have been one of the best teams in the league at converting at the foul line.  This has propped them up to 23rd in TS%, still not good, especially with the team being a pedestrian 26th in shots per possession.  The Pacers need to crank up the efficiency on that end of the floor.
  3. The big mover in a good way though has clearly been the Grizzlies – which is particularly surprising given the extended absence of Zach Randolph.  As you recall, last year’s late run sans Rudy Gay was driven by almost a 1976 style of play with very few three pointers and a maniacal attention to getting inside.  What is interesting is that much of their offensive style has not changed – actually they have kind of turned into the 2008-2010 Boston Celtics.  They are still not shooting the three (second from the bottom in threes per possession), they don’t get to the line much – but they shoot the twos very well, 4th in overall FG% and that has kept their TS% in the middle of the pack despite being only average at generating shots (16th – this is better tham the Celtics normally do since the Grizzlies actually crash the boards and limit turnovers).  The drop in shot generation and getting to the line has limited the offensive bonanza that their FG% would portend.  Z-Bo clearly helps in both areas.  Just as clearly, he doesn’t help play defense – and the Grizzlies have continued to be an elite turnover generating team – the Tony Allen Experience indeed – and that has been more than sufficient to offset any defensive rebounding help Z-Bo offered.  The Grizzlies were the best team in the league a season ago at preventing looks at the basket.  Now, that is not the case, but they have managed to stay a respectable 7th.

As far as the rankings through the games of 1/22/12? (Rankings from the first report – 1/8/12  – in parentheses):

  1. (1) Sixers (11-5)
  2. (5) Bulls (15-3)
  3. (3) Heat (11-5)
  4. (6) Hawks (12-5)
  5. (10) Thunder (13-3)
  6. (4) Nuggets (12-5)
  7. (9) Lakers (10-8)
  8. (13) Jazz (10-5) Suns (4-4)
  9. (16) Mavericks (10-7)
  10. (2) Blazers (9-7)
  11. (24) Grizzlies (9-6)
  12. (17) Magic (11-4)
  13. (12) Spurs (10-7)
  14. (7) Clippers (9-6)
  15. (14) Pacers (11-4)
  16. (11) Timberwolves (7-9)
  17. (19) Rockets (9-7)
  18. (8) Suns (6-9)
  19. (20) Celtics (6-9)
  20. (18) Hornets (3-13)
  21. (23) Bucks (6-9)
  22. (22) Warriors (5-10)
  23. (25) Knicks (6-10)
  24. (15) Raptors (4-13)
  25. (21) Cavaliers (6-9)
  26. (29) Nets (5-11)
  27. (28) Kings (6-11)
  28. (27) Pistons (4-13)
  29. (30) Wizards (2-14)
  30. (26) Bobcats (3-14)

Anyway, hopefully the season report will be a semi-regular feature.  Even still, the rankings will be updated at least once a week.

The Rossi (and the Short North of Columbus)

It is funny.  Since my life has led me Ohio-ward (certainly more than the 30+ years preceding), I have been to Columbus (well – bedroom communities therein) so much, but I have seen so little of the city itself.  So it was with a bit of excitement that I did get to hit the Short North area of the city – a bit from downtown and apparently where the “cool kids” are going.  Some of the highlights:

  • The Short North reminded me of Bridge Street in Huntsville, Alabama or Atlantic Station in Atlanta (well, allegedly – it popped up after my reign there ended).  It was fine, had a lot of the usual young people, girls in short skirts, douchebags in striped dress shirts.  Lot of the sorts of pubs where I’d hang out and fancier locales where I decidedly would not.  But it also looked new – not like a mall, but sort of like it was all built at once.  It felt developed – I guess where I live in Arlington, the Shirlington area would be a mini-sort of version.  Culture fabrication of a sort.
  • The North Market though, just off the Short North part of High Street – that’s the real deal.  The market was very evocative of Quincy Market in Boston, just under one roof this festival of foods and groceries.  Hell, there was a Jeni’s Ice Cream – and Jeni’s is pretty clearly the best ice cream that has ever been developed in the United States – so that is a plus already.  However, the other markets all looked wonderful – I wish I had a chance to get lunch there, but some of the key German-Polish places and the Italian stuff looked like the real thing.
  • We did stop at a fairly high end joint in the area – The Rossi – a fancypants sort of Classic American themed place.  Among the specials was one of the better butternut squash soups I have had.  The soup was not overly thick like a puree or an applesauce, and had a hint of heat – did a nice job avoiding cloying sweetness.  It offset a pretty sad charcuterie board that my wife got.  You know there’s a problem when the waitress could not identify the meats on the plate (and frankly they were salamis – whoopee).  But really where my heart sank was the Croque Madame I ordered.  How do you make a Croque Madame and skimp on the gruyere?  I mean, I don’t give a crap about the ham – there has to be some, but I don’t need to be overloaded like I was at a family restaurant.  However, why you order a croque or a Monte Cristo, or another artery stopping grilled cheese, is for stringy, unctuous melty goodness.  You have to be able to see the gooieness and determined that this is a fair price for possibly dying from a coronary later that evening.  It has to create that Pavlovian response.  Instead here we got a little cheese – enough to show that it exists, but an entirely unbalanced thing.  Also, the egg was overdone – the yolk was set which also undercut any unctuous possibility.  Of course this is a restaurant, and so we have folks who are giant fraidy cats about cooking eggs properly.  Oh well.  That said, the other dishes at the table (a salmon salad in particular) looked nice.  It is always hard to get fired up about a high end “American” restaurant – and this is not the place to start – but I am sure most people would enjoy it.

College Basketball Pairwise NCAA Forecast #7

If the season ended today -  (rankings here :)

The Field of 68.  Easier to present it this way – ignoring procedural seeding rules.  Conference champs (leaders, wins first tiebreak, pairwise ranking second) in caps:

BOSTON

  • (1) SYRACUSE vs (16) UNC-ASHEVILLE/TEXAS SOUTHERN
  • (8) COLORADO STATE vs (9) ORAL ROBERTS
  • (4) Georgetown vs (13) MURRAY STATE
  • (5) Virginia vs (12) San Diego State/Harvard
  • (2) Ohio State vs (15) AKRON
  • (7) IONA vs (10) Memphis
  • (3) MICHIGAN STATE vs (14) GEORGE MASON
  • (6) SAINT MARY’S vs (11) Florida

PHOENIX

  • (1) KENTUCKY vs (16) TEXAS-ARLINGTON
  • (8) Temple vs (9) Xavier
  • (4) CREIGHTON vs (13) NEVADA
  • (5) Southern Miss vs (12) Wisconsin
  • (2) Connecticut vs (15) LONG ISLAND
  • (7) Michigan vs (10) Long Island
  • (3) Kansas vs (14) WEBER STATE
  • (6) DAYTON vs (11) Purdue

SAINT LOUIS

  • (1) BAYLOR vs (16) PENNSYLVANIA/ALBANY
  • (8) Louisville vs (9) Minnesota
  • (4) Indiana vs (13) MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  • (5) Alabama vs (12) Kansas State/NC State
  • (2) Missouri vs (15) MILWAUKEE
  • (7) West Virginia vs (10) Northern Iowa
  • (3) Gonzaga vs (14) BELMONT
  • (6) Mississippi State vs (11) Denver

ATLANTA

  • (1) DUKE vs (16) BUCKNELL
  • (8) CALIFORNIA vs (9) Wichita State
  • (4) North Carolina vs (13) DAVIDSON
  • (5) Marquette vs (12) Stanford
  • (2) Seton Hall vs (15) NORFOLK STATE
  • (7) Vanderbilt vs (10) MARSHALL
  • (3) Illinois vs (14) LONG BEACH STATE
  • (6) UNLV vs (11) New Mexico

First four out: Oregon, Arkansas, Florida State, BYU

Next four out: Iowa State, Saint Joseph’s, Arizona, Saint Louis

Multi-Bid Leagues

  • ACC (4)
  • Pac 12 (2)
  • Big Ten (9)
  • Mountain West (4)
  • SEC (5)
  • Conference USA (3)
  • Missouri Valley (3)
  • Ivy League (2)
  • Sun Belt (2)
  • Big East (7)
  • Atlantic 10 (3)
  • West Coast (2)
  • Big 12 (4)

College Basketball Pairwise NCAA Forecast #6

If the season ended today – correcting for a horrid math error (rankings here :)

The Field of 68.  Easier to present it this way – ignoring procedural seeding rules.  Conference champs (leaders, wins first tiebreak, pairwise ranking second) in caps:

BOSTON

  • (1) Syracuse vs (16) MISSISSIPPI VALLEY-UNC ASHEVILLE
  • (8) Florida vs (9) SAINT MARY’S
  • (4) Kansas vs (13) CLEVELAND STATE
  • (5) Temple vs (12) MARSHALL
  • (2) Gonzaga vs (15) GEORGE MASON
  • (7) Kansas State vs (10) Mississippi
  • (3) Missouri vs (14) BELMONT
  • (6) Marquette vs (11) Mississippi State

PHOENIX

  • (1) KENTUCKY vs (16) BUCKNELL
  • (8) Vanderbilt vs (9) ORAL ROBERTS
  • (4) Illinois vs (13) LONG BEACH STATE
  • (5) Georgetown vs (12) MURRAY STATE
  • (2) Duke vs (15) AKRON
  • (7) Louisville vs (10) Wichita State
  • (3) Ohio State vs (14) LASALLE
  • (6) UNLV vs (11) Harvard

SAINT LOUIS

  • (1) Indiana vs (16) TEXAS-ARLINGTON/STONY BROOK
  • (8) West Virginia vs (9) Northern Iowa
  • (4) Alabama vs (13) DAVIDSON
  • (5) Virginia vs (12) Arizona/NC State
  • (2) MICHIGAN STATE vs (15) WEBER STATE
  • (7) Purdue vs (10) Iowa State
  • (3) Connecticut vs (14) COLORADO
  • (6) IONA vs (11) Xavier

ATLANTA

  • (1) BAYLOR vs (16) LONG ISLAND
  • (8) Denver vs (9) California
  • (4) CREIGHTON vs (13) MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  • (5) Michigan vs (12) Saint Joseph’s/Minnesota
  • (2) Seton Hall vs (15) NORFOLK STATE
  • (7) Dayton vs (10) Colorado State
  • (3) North Carolina vs (14) NEVADA
  • (6) Southern Miss vs (11) Northwestern

First four out: Stanford, New Mexico, Ohio, Memphis

Next four out: Arkansas, Oregon, Texas, LSU

Multi-Bid Leagues

  • Big East (7)
  • SEC (6)
  • West Coast (2)
  • Big 12 (5)
  • Atlantic 10 (5)
  • Conference USA (2)
  • Big Ten (8)
  • ACC (4)
  • Missouri Valley (3)
  • Mountain West (2)
  • Pac 12 (3)
  • Sun Belt (2)

 

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #1

So, let me get this straight.  We are trying to squeeze in 66 games in 4 months, instead of the normal 82 games in 6 – all of this with a two week training camp and offseason?  And the basketball was going to be good?  Ummm … ok.  Yeah, the Christmas games between New York and Boston and the Lakers and the Bulls were false alarms apparently – as we have had some really crappy basketball to start the year.  How crappy?  Well, last year overall we were averaging 1.045 points per possession.  Right now, the number is 0.998.  Put simply, was was 27th a year ago is 15th right now – yeeah.  So if you thought the points have dropped off (with the pace staying the same), you’re right.  Even if we just compare the first 125 games of the league season (how many games have been played to date), last season we had 1.033 points per possession.  1.033 this year would place you at 8th in the league.  Compare some other stats across the last two season’s first 125 games:

  • Turnover Rate: Last Year: 15.9% of possessions, This Year: 15.9%
  • TS%: Last Year: 54%, This Year: 52%
  • Shots per possession: Last Year: 0.98, This Year: 0.96.

Basically the game has slowed, down – teams are shooting less efficiently, and getting fewer looks at the basket.  It is tempting to salute defense, but this early in the season – one thinks that it is more shoddy play than high quality defending.

That said, despite the hide your eyes bad level of offensive play, and the way too aggressive schedule – the league is starting to unfold.  The latest rankings are in a permanent home this year, so hopefully you can skip right to the good stuff without reading all this jibberish.  However, if you are reading this – might as well get some observations out of the way:

  1. Yes, that is right, the Sixers start out at #1.  You get through a five game road trip to start the season with just two losses and have a +15 normalized scoring margin?  You’re doing something right.  As we know, Doug Collins – the Al Dunlap of NBA Coaches – took this merry band of misfits into a playoff team a year ago, and with almost no personnel changes – what is this?  The Sixers have the league’s top offense AND league’s top defense, and the way they have done both is a study in contrasts.  On offense, it has been a possession based strategy – the Sixers turn the ball over less than anybody, and have ended up 2nd in the league in shots per possession.  Take a pretty good 6th in TS%, and you have a team that is scoring at a very high level.  On defense, they have struggled taking the ball away or preventing offensive rebounds.  This could cause a problem down the road, but their top ranked TS% defense has held up its end of the bargain.  They have been very strong in all phases of ball shooting defense – tops in FG defense, tops in fewest FTs allowed, tops in fewest three point looks.
  2. The Heat of course were the favorites entering, and have done nothing to dissuade those bullish about them.  One obvious thing the Heat have changes tactically is getting out and running.  Their pace has risen from 21st to tops in the league – and so have the points, as they are still a good offensive team.   The pace increase has come from obviously their own priorities, but also their league leading turnover forcing defense – lot of chances to get into the open floor.  That said, there are some things to clean up – in particular trouble defending the 3 and fouling too much.  But the Heat are the league’s best TS%, and it is hard to say a whole lot bad about them.  The win at Atlanta with a skeleton crew and no James or Wade was particularly impressive.
  3. On the other end of the spectrum is the local entry, the Washington Wizards.  They are the league’s worst offense – by 4 points over 29th place.  To put it another way, the difference between 29 and 30 is larger than the difference between #29 and #25.  The Wizards badness on offense is a bit of a surprise with one of the league’s best offensive coaches in Flip Saunders and the Point Guard of the Future in John Wall.  However, John Wall has just been a dreadful shooter, and the Wizards in general do not seem to be getting good shots.  They are bad at shooting in general, and shoot two many contested two pointers – consider they are 29th in three point rate and 24th in FT attempts.  The Wizards have a knack for avoiding all high efficiency scoring – and as a result they are 30th in the league with a thud in TS%.

As far as the rankings through the games of 1/8/12?

  1. Sixers (5-2)
  2. Blazers (6-2)
  3. Heat (8-1)
  4. Nuggets (6-3)
  5. Bulls (7-2)
  6. Hawks (6-3)
  7. Clippers (4-2)
  8. Suns (4-4)
  9. Lakers (6-4)
  10. Thunder (8-2)
  11. Timberwolves (3-5)
  12. Spurs (6-3)
  13. Jazz (5-3)
  14. Pacers (6-2)
  15. Raptors (3-5)
  16. Mavericks (4-5)
  17. Magic (6-3)
  18. Hornets (3-6)
  19. Rockets (2-6)
  20. Celtics (4-4)
  21. Cavaliers (4-4)
  22. Warriors (2-6)
  23. Bucks (2-6)
  24. Grizzlies (3-5)
  25. Knicks (4-4)
  26. Bobcats (2-6)
  27. Pistons (2-6)
  28. Kings (3-6)
  29. Nets (2-7)
  30. Wizards (0-8)

Anyway, hopefully the season report will be a semi-regular feature.  Even still, the rankings will be updated at least once a week.

College Basketball Pairwise NCAA Forecast #5

If the season ended today (rankings here :)

The Field of 68.  Easier to present it this way.  Conference champs (leaders, wins first tiebreak, pairwise ranking second) in caps:

  1. SYRACUSE
  2. BAYLOR
  3. Indiana
  4. MURRAY STATE
  5. KENTUCKY
  6. VIRGINIA
  7. Seton Hall
  8. Missouri
  9. Ohio State
  10. Duke
  11. SOUTHERN MISS
  12. HARVARD
  13. MICHIGAN STATE
  14. GONZAGA
  15. UConn
  16. IONA
  17. UNLV
  18. Georgetown
  19. Kansas State
  20. CREIGHTON
  21. North Carolina
  22. Saint Mary’s
  23. Illinois
  24. Kansas
  25. Middle Tennessee
  26. Denver
  27. Alabama
  28. CLEVELAND STATE
  29. New Mexico
  30. Michigan
  31. San Diego State
  32. Iowa State
  33. Florida
  34. Purdue
  35. Louisville
  36. West Virginia
  37. Ohio
  38. Wichita State
  39. California
  40. Northern Iowa
  41. DAYTON
  42. Mississippi State
  43. ORAL ROBERTS
  44. Central Florida
  45. Stanford
  46. Marquette
  47. Colorado State
  48. Arkansas
  49. Brigham Young
  50. Charleston/Virginia Tech
  51. Robert Morris/Vanderbilt
  52. DAVIDSON
  53. NEVADA
  54. GEORGE MASON
  55. LONG BEACH STATE
  56. BELMONT
  57. NORFOLK STATE
  58. COLORADO
  59. WEBER STATE
  60. LONG ISLAND
  61. BUFFALO
  62. LAMAR
  63. BUCKNELL/TEXAS SOUTHERN
  64. STONY BROOK/NC-ASHEVILLE

The first four teams out:

  1. Marshall
  2. Wagner
  3. Saint Louis
  4. NC State

The next four teams out:

  1. Northwestern
  2. Temple
  3. Arizona
  4. LaSalle

A Real BCS Fix, I know, I know …

On New Year’s Day (ok, not really) – the traditonal big day for College Football, we are once again fully introduced to the sheer inadequacy of the BCS.  It is deeply comical for the announcers to talk about “BCS records” as if the other non-national title BCS bowls are anything special – aside from the Rose Bowl which has its own history to work with.  Obviously, as my friend Adam points out, the playoff is the best solution – but there are also a ton of entrenched interests holding that up.  A seeded plus-one seems to be gaining momentum, and actually if it got implemented, it would be a startling display of common sense for college football.  Now, while this is not a 16 team playoff with every conference represented, we can create a system which identifies the most worthy champion more frequently than any other system college football has had.

  1. Revamp the BCS formula back towards the 1998 formula.  No, I am not asking for the 1998 formula again.  However, a BCS formula that reduces the impact of the polls (which was the intent of the BCS to begin with) – brings back margin of victory (which has real value in identifying quality) and objectively sorts teams over multiple criteria.  If college hockey can do this (or modesty be damned, if I can do it) then doing something on this front is not that difficult.  This will not eliminate the arguments over who is #1 or #2, but it is at least not being determined by coaches who don’t watch other teams, and is consistent in measurement.
  2. Create the 20 team list from which the BCS can choose teams.  Note there is no automatic qualification here.  This eliminates carrying a sister of the poor – or the Big East.  Twenty teams for 10 spots – the Bowls get their economic flexibility and the smaller programs have a reasonable shot still to get picked.
  3. The top 4 teams are the national semifinalists.  In this season, you’d have (using my rankings) LSU, Oklahoma State, Alabama and Stanford.  You follow the rankings exactly – EXCEPT if one of the top 2 teams is not a conference champion.  Conferences should not be the end all, but a conference championship is the goal of every team – and so that should be rewarded.  Thus, the top 2 seeded semifinalists MUST be conference champions.  Why stop at 4 teams when there are more? Personally, we know this is the most likely arrangement to be implemented quickly, and anyway, there are so rarely more than four truly WORTHY teams (there aren’t even 4 really this year) that we are not missing much.
  4. Now we get to the BCS bowls.  I add two pretty prestigious bowls to the existing mix.  So, it’s the Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, Orange, Cotton and Peach bowls.  The national semifinalists are placed first.  The Top 2 seeds get bowl preference – not quite home field advantage, but it counts.  I added Atlanta and Dallas for some additional choices here.  Also the Cotton Bowl will be a part of any new BCS in real life, how do you leave out Cowboys Stadium?  So, LSU goes to the Sugar Bowl, and Oklahoma State goes to the Cotton Bowl.  The national semifinals are LSU-Stanford and Oklahoma State-Alabama.  The Rose Bowl gets its matchup and the other bowls select as they must.  Note this means if a Pac 12 or Big Ten team is among the Top 2, the Rose Bowl can move to the national semifinal status, which keeps both tradition and lets the BCS work.
  5. The BCS title game we are waiting a week for would instead host the winner of the national semifinals.

It is not a perfect arrangement, but if we back-tested this with the 2010 pre-BCS rankings from previous years?

2010

  • Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs Stanford
  • Rose Bowl: Oregon vs TCU

2009

  • Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs Cincinnati
  • Cotton Bowl: Texas vs TCU

2008

  • Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs Alabama
  • Orange Bowl: Florida vs Texas

2007

  • Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs Oklahoma
  • Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Virginia Tech

2006

  • Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs LSU
  • Orange Bowl: Florida vs Michigan

2005

  • Rose Bowl: USC vs Ohio State
  • Cotton Bowl: Texas vs Penn State

2004

  • Rose Bowl: USC vs Texas
  • Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs Auburn

2003

  • Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Michigan
  • Rose Bowl: USC vs Oklahoma (note: Oklahoma BCS #1 but lost their conference championship game)

2002

  • Orange Bowl: Miami vs USC
  • Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs Georgia

2001

  • Orange Bowl: Miami vs Oregon
  • Fiesta Bowl: Colorado vs Nebraska (Nebraska BCS #2, but Colorado conference champ)

2000

  • Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs Washington
  • Orange Bowl: Florida State vs Miami

1999

  • Orange Bowl: Florida State vs Alabama
  • Sugar Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Nebraska

1998

  • Sugar Bowl: Tennessee vs Ohio State
  • Orange Bowl: Florida State vs Kansas State

Somehow, this would work I think.

College Basketball Pairwise NCAA Forecast #4

If the season ended today (rankings here :)

AUTOMATIC BIDS (31) (ties broken with pairwise ranking):

  • America East: Albany (8-6, #151)
  • Atlantic 10: Saint Louis (12-2, #34)
  • ACC: Duke (12-1, #3)
  • Atlantic Sun: Belmont (9-5, #73)
  • Big 12: Baylor (13-0, #2)
  • Big East: Syracuse (15-0, #1)
  • Big Sky: Weber State (10-3, #81)
  • Big South: Coastal Carolina (10-3, #94)
  • Big Ten: Ohio State (13-2, #20)
  • Big West: Cal State-Fullerton (9-3, #141)
  • Colonial: VCU (10-3, #79)
  • Conference USA: Southern Miss (13-2, #18)
  • Horizon: Milwaukee (10-5, #102)
  • Ivy: Harvard (12-1, #11)
  • Metro Atlantic: Fairfield (8-6, #137)
  • Mid-American: Ohio (12-1, #13)
  • MEAC: Norfolk State (10-5, #77)
  • Missouri Valley: Missouri State (9-5, #89)
  • Mountain West: UNLV (15-2, #19)
  • Northeast: Robert Morris (10-4, #62)
  • Ohio Valley: Murray State (14-0, #7)
  • Pac 12: California (12-3, #56)
  • Patriot: Lehigh (11-4, #47)
  • SEC: Kentucky (13-1, #8)
  • Southern: Charleston (10-3, #53)
  • Southland: Lamar (9-5, #98)
  • SWAC: Jackson State (2-10, #203)
  • Summit: South Dakota State (12-4, #41)
  • Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State (13-2, #35)
  • West Coast: Saint Mary’s (13-2, #29)
  • WAC: Nevada (10-3, #83)

The two opening round doubleheaders feature, the last 4 at-large teams and the 4 lowest seeds in general:

  • Bubble Matchups: Kansas vs Virginia Tech, New Mexico vs Iowa State
  • Lowest Seeds: Weber State vs Jackson State, Maine vs Charleston Southern

The draw, disregarding regions and seeding rules:

EAST (Boston)

  • (1) Syracuse vs (16) Cal State-Fullerton/Albany
  • (8) Cleveland State vs (9) Alabama
  • (4) Seton Hall vs (13) Indiana State/West Virginia
  • (5) Gonzaga vs (12) Wichita State/Oral Roberts
  • (2) Kentucky vs (15) Nevada
  • (7) Creighton vs (10) Denver
  • (3) North Carolina vs (14) Weber State
  • (6) Louisville vs (11) South Dakota State

WEST (Phoenix)

  • (1) Connecticut vs (16) Milwaukee
  • (8) Saint Mary’s vs (9) Illinois
  • (4) Ohio vs (13) Robert Morris
  • (5) Michigan State vs (12) Wagner
  • (2) Missouri vs (15) Lamar
  • (7) Oklahoma vs (10) Purdue
  • (3) Virginia vs (14) Belmont
  • (6) Marquette vs (11) Colorado State

MIDWEST (Saint Louis)

  • (1) Baylor vs (16) Fairfield/Jackson State
  • (8) Minnesota vs (9) Saint Louis
  • (4) Ohio State vs (13) Charleston
  • (5) Southern Miss vs (12) Lehigh
  • (2) Murray State vs (15) Missouri State
  • (7) San Diego State vs (10) New Mexico
  • (3) Kansas State vs (14) VCU
  • (6) Michigan vs (11) Wisconsin

SOUTH (Atlanta)

  • (1) Duke vs (16) Eastern Kentucky
  • (8) Mississippi State vs (9) Middle Tennessee State
  • (4) Georgetown vs (13) California
  • (5) UNLV vs (12) Virginia Tech
  • (2) Indiana vs (15) Coastal Carolina
  • (7) Florida vs (10) Temple
  • (3) Harvard vs (14) Norfolk State
  • (6) Iona vs (11) North Dakota State

Conference Ratings

  1. Big Ten
  2. Big 12
  3. SEC
  4. ACC
  5. Mountain West
  6. Big East
  7. Atlantic 10
  8. Missouri Valley
  9. West Coast
  10. Pac 12

The Adventures of Tintin

It is interesting how loaded a term Steven Spielberg’s name is at this point.  Doubtlessly one of the very greatest filmmakers alive, Spielberg’s canon is so well known that it is a waste of disk space on WordPress’s servers for me to rattle them off.  He has been able to touch a cultural nexus, the intersection of mass culture and actual legitimate art, in a way that only folks like The Beatles, Kanye West, Picasso have been able to do.  His thrillers and science fiction movies of the 70s and 80s are part of the tapestry of our youth (well “our” if you are my age).  What is striking about The Adventures of Tintin is not that it is his first animated piece, or that it is his skillful adaptation of a children’s literary classic – but that it is a “Spielberg movie”, and one realizes with a start just how long it has been since he has actually MADE one of these things.  Minority Report and Munich are superb movies, but throwback entertainments they are not.  Instead, we have Sean Connery stepping into Bond in 1980, or Michael Jordan scoring 55 points wearing Chuck Person’s number at Madison Square Garden.  Okay, okay, it’s not quite THAT good – but it tickles the Indiana Jones receptors just the same.

Tintin is a journalist of some repute in France presumably in some time that is not precisely modern  He procures a model ship at a local market after sitting for a portrait (a wink to Herge fans no doubt) and coming home.  Meanwhile a pickpocket seems to be working his magic in the crowded square, and of course Tintin’s loyal companion Snowy, is barking to try (unsuccessfully) to get his master’s attention.  In any case, while trying to see what his dog wants, Tintin is approached by a couple of shadowy figures who seem very interested in the ship.  Despite the sorts of ominous warnings that movie characters immemoriam have neglected, Tintin brings it home, and suddenly narrowly avoids some bullet fire.  The model boat breaks and something rolls behind the desk – Snowy seems to have an idea.

Snowy is one of the real delights of the film, and Spielberg takes so much care in producing him.  We’ve heard dogs bark in movies like Snowy does, but how often do we hear the animated dog slobber, or that tinny sound that sounds like microphone feedback dogs make as they are entering or departing a whimper?  Spielberg doesn’t have to do this – it’s a barely noticeable detail but you appreciate that it’s there.  Snowy often times seems like the smartest organism in the movie – and the issues a dog has communicating its brilliance to us luddite humans is felt acutely here.  In any case, the model ship and the attempt to take it leads Tintin to investigate and takes him to the Haddock Mansion where he spots another model ship.  Could the two be related?  Could the need to find the ships result in an adventure where Tintin is trying to outwit the bad guys?  Well, that’s entertainment for you.

The movie rushes headlong into the adventures as Tintin, Snowy and a key figure go from land to sea to a quaint notion of a Moroccan port.  There are chases, fights and an opera singer with a key power for a key time.  All of this is handled with such easy precision that it’s invisible.  Spielberg is just such an easy craftsman in putting this stuff together.  The animation, of the motion capture sort that was used in The Polar Express is handled here in a way where you just sort of take it for granted.  The movie is shot in that crappy 3-D technology, but Spielberg does not linger on it – it makes the chase scenes more visceral, but it is surprisingly unobtrusive and the colors still pop.  Spielberg has such command of the medium and storytelling that you end up focused on the latter.  The resolution is totally enjoyable in that way that ties up the loose ends and leaves room for umpteen sequels – I almost laughed at how it set the deal up.

If there is a weakness in the movie it might have been the choice to go 3-D motion capture.  The movie works and Spielberg is too good to make it a distraction, but the clear line technique of Herge is such a raison d’etre for the book series that abandoning it is a curious decision.  Can it be Tintin if you don’t use the drawing style?  I don’t know – so Spielberg is not gunning for authenticity on that front.  That said, he has created a fun entertainment that is hard not to enjoy and feel like your money and time were not wasted.  It’s not his best movie since Catch Me if You Can, but it is his most Spielbergian.