Here we are, the first rankings of the year, after 1 week of action. The method has tweaked a little this year, so here is what you need to know.
Offense: (Points per possession x League Average Possessions per game) = the points the team scores in an average speed game
Defense: the points a team allows in an average speed game adjusted to account for free throws, since a team defense should not receive credit for the ability of their opponents to shoot freebies.
Road: 3.5 points is the assumed home court advantage, so over an 82 game season this number should be 1.75 (half the games played on the road). This measures on a 0-3.5 scale how “road heavy” a team’s schedule is.
SOS: The possession-normalized scoring margin of a team’s opponents when not playing that team.
Rating: Offense – Defense + Road + SOS
So, with that out of the way, how did Week 1 go?
| Rank | Team | W | L | Off | Def | Road | SOS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 3 | 1 | 100.764 (13) | 87.714 (2) | 2.625 | 7.105 (6) | 22.78 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 2 | 1 | 102.524 (8) | 93.83 (4) | 2.333 | 4.432 (12) | 15.459 |
| 3 | Lakers | 3 | 0 | 105.416 (5) | 96.359 (11) | 1.167 | 5.161 (9) | 15.384 |
| 4 | Hornets | 3 | 0 | 101.312 (10) | 96.014 (10) | 1.167 | 8.579 (4) | 15.044 |
| 5 | Grizzlies | 2 | 1 | 96.563 (22) | 95.151 (7) | 1.167 | 11.273 (1) | 13.851 |
| 6 | Magic | 1 | 1 | 92.526 (27) | 90.833 (3) | 1.75 | 9.253 (3) | 12.697 |
| 7 | Mavericks | 2 | 1 | 100.504 (14) | 86.984 (1) | 1.167 | -4.57 (28) | 10.117 |
| 8 | Bulls | 2 | 1 | 101.293 (11) | 96.43 (12) | 1.167 | 2.616 (14) | 8.646 |
| 9 | Knicks | 1 | 2 | 97.334 (20) | 97.829 (13) | 2.333 | 6.521 (8) | 8.359 |
| 10 | Suns | 1 | 2 | 104.33 (6) | 106.081 (27) | 2.333 | 6.537 (7) | 7.119 |
| 11 | Rockets | 0 | 3 | 103.533 (7) | 106.733 (29) | 2.333 | 7.908 (5) | 7.041 |
| 12 | Celtics | 2 | 1 | 95.031 (23) | 94.564 (5) | 1.167 | 4.846 (11) | 6.48 |
| 13 | Blazers | 3 | 1 | 105.819 (4) | 103.264 (23) | 2.625 | 0.211 (17) | 5.391 |
| 14 | Sixers | 0 | 3 | 93.242 (26) | 100.078 (17) | 1.167 | 9.36 (2) | 3.691 |
| 15 | Raptors | 1 | 2 | 99.01 (17) | 95.331 (8) | 1.167 | -1.549 (20) | 3.297 |
| 16 | Warriors | 2 | 1 | 106.8 (2) | 102.871 (21) | 1.167 | -1.967 (21) | 3.128 |
| 17 | Hawks | 3 | 0 | 107.66 (1) | 99.232 (15) | 2.333 | -9.148 (30) | 1.614 |
| 18 | Jazz | 1 | 2 | 97.444 (19) | 100.548 (18) | 2.333 | 1.16 (15) | 0.389 |
| 19 | Spurs | 2 | 1 | 101.155 (12) | 98.696 (14) | 1.167 | -3.395 (26) | 0.231 |
| 20 | Nets | 2 | 1 | 99.754 (15) | 105.933 (26) | 0 | 4.883 (10) | -1.296 |
| 21 | Bucks | 1 | 2 | 94.3 (24) | 95.777 (9) | 2.333 | -2.242 (22) | -1.386 |
| 22 | Timberwolves | 1 | 2 | 92.15 (28) | 94.884 (6) | 1.167 | 0.113 (18) | -1.454 |
| 23 | Kings | 3 | 1 | 106.536 (3) | 107.93 (30) | 2.625 | -4.406 (27) | -3.174 |
| 24 | Pistons | 0 | 3 | 97.991 (18) | 101.619 (19) | 2.333 | -2.35 (23) | -3.645 |
| 25 | Pacers | 2 | 1 | 102.068 (9) | 103.077 (22) | 2.333 | -5.317 (29) | -3.992 |
| 26 | Thunder | 2 | 1 | 99.695 (16) | 102.654 (20) | 1.167 | -2.545 (24) | -4.337 |
| 27 | Bobcats | 0 | 3 | 97.306 (21) | 106.555 (28) | 2.333 | 1.141 (16) | -5.775 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 1 | 2 | 93.644 (25) | 100.011 (16) | 1.167 | -0.634 (19) | -5.835 |
| 29 | Clippers | 0 | 4 | 88.302 (30) | 104.543 (25) | 0.875 | 3.475 (13) | -11.892 |
| 30 | Wizards | 0 | 2 | 88.455 (29) | 104.519 (24) | 3.5 | -3.312 (25) | -15.877 |
Some observations from Week 1:
- The Heat’s defense has been sensational. Considering that they have not allowed 90 points yet, and three of those opponents (Nets, Celtics, Magic) have the size down low to expose an alleged vulnerability, this is a bad bad sign for the rest of the league. If the offense gets figured out, this could be as good as they had dreamed.
- Note the very skewed strength of schedules. This will obviously compress as the season goes on.
- The Suns are a paltry 20th in the league in pace so far, and the Rockets are 2nd? This is early season for you.
- A new feature we’ll have here, now that the Clippers are off to such a horrible start is the Baron Davis watch. I wondered if having a star talent like Blake Griffin would get Baron Davis to play like the guy who is such a nightmare of skills. Alas, through 3 games (missing one with a sore knee) Davis is 1-9 from three point land. Hooray self sabotage!
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