NFL Power Rankings – Week 10

by Sriram

Another week of strange results, none stranger than the Miami Dolphins lining up six guys behind center to beat the Tennessee Titans.  As the season evolves, the movements up and down the table get smaller.  That said, when you hang 59 points up, it gets you noticed.  As always this is a combination of scoring margin and opponents scoring margin against other teams – this week’s story is about the actual data, and not the ordinal data per se:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Titans 5 4 0 11.663 2.969 9 1
2 Packers 6 3 0 11.25 1.583 19 3
3 Jets 7 2 0 10.649 2.26 13 4
4 Steelers 6 3 0 10.521 4.382 2 2
5 Eagles 6 3 0 10.32 3.431 4 9
6 Patriots 7 2 0 9.219 2.524 12 12
7 Falcons 7 2 0 8.552 2.108 17 8
8 Colts 6 3 0 8.336 0.28 24 6
9 Chargers 4 5 0 8.056 1.611 18 7
10 Ravens 6 3 0 7.618 2.229 14 11
11 Giants 6 3 0 5.883 0.078 25 5
12 Lions 2 7 0 5.878 3.045 8 10
13 Raiders 5 4 0 5.809 0.642 23 15
14 Browns 3 6 0 5.313 4.868 1 14
15 Saints 6 3 0 4.809 -1.914 32 16
16 Chiefs 5 4 0 3.938 -0.007 26 13
17 Dolphins 5 4 0 3.681 3.958 3 21
18 Bears 6 3 0 3.347 -1.042 29 19
19 Vikings 3 6 0 1.851 2.795 10 17
20 Bengals 2 7 0 0.854 2.132 16 22
21 Broncos 3 6 0 -0.01 3.156 6 26
22 Rams 4 5 0 -0.198 -1.67 31 23
23 Redskins 4 5 0 -0.303 3.086 7 18
24 Texans 4 5 0 -0.328 2.561 11 20
25 Seahawks 5 4 0 -1.443 -0.054 27 27
26 49ers 3 6 0 -1.455 1.212 20 25
27 Cowboys 2 7 0 -1.963 2.176 15 29
28 Bucs 6 3 0 -1.966 -1.521 30 24
29 Jaguars 5 4 0 -3.368 1.076 21 30
30 Bills 1 8 0 -4.191 3.253 5 31
31 Cardinals 3 6 0 -6.686 0.786 22 28
32 Panthers 1 8 0 -10.748 -0.137 28 32

As I mentioned above, the actual numbers are the story of the NFL right now, much less so than the Titans still measuring up as the #1 team in the league.  Why is this the case?  Well, let’s take a trip down memory lane to last year’s final rankings.

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 Saints 13 3 0 12.538 0.475 25
2 Patriots 10 6 0 12.133 3.227 5
3 Packers 11 5 0 11.944 0.413 27
4 Vikings 12 4 0 11.874 0.64 23
5 Ravens 9 7 0 11.219 2.063 11
6 Cowboys 11 5 0 10.699 2.011 13
7 Chargers 13 3 0 10.188 0.423 26
8 Colts 14 2 0 9.914 1.711 18
9 Jets 9 7 0 9.729 1.901 14
10 Eagles 11 5 0 9.171 1.858 16
11 Falcons 9 7 0 6.74 2.943 6
12 Panthers 8 8 0 5.963 4.01 2
13 Texans 9 7 0 5.575 0.388 29
14 Steelers 9 7 0 5.55 1.05 20
15 49ers 8 8 0 5.202 0.389 28
16 Cardinals 10 6 0 4.446 -0.429 32
17 Bengals 9 7 0 4.286 2.333 8
18 Dolphins 7 9 0 3.912 4.037 1
19 Broncos 8 8 0 3.553 1.85 17
20 Giants 8 8 0 3.203 3.265 4
21 Titans 8 8 0 1.861 2.205 9
22 Bears 7 9 0 0.74 1.881 15
23 Bills 6 10 0 -0.157 2.343 7
24 Redskins 4 12 0 -2.254 0.215 30
25 Jaguars 7 9 0 -2.682 0.896 21
26 Bucs 3 13 0 -4.159 3.747 3
27 Chiefs 5 11 0 -5.081 0.513 24
28 Browns 5 11 0 -5.145 1.23 19
29 Seahawks 5 11 0 -5.289 0.039 31
30 Raiders 5 11 0 -6.96 2.181 10
31 Lions 2 14 0 -10.271 2.057 12
32 Rams 1 15 0 -13.181 0.756 22

As we see even with the flawed sample here, that the top rating of 12.5 points (and remember these are points scored netted by opponents scoring margin) is higher than the current Titans score of 11.7.   And the league worst Panthers rating of -10.7 is significantly better than the Rams’ -13.2 stinkfest.  Put into English, the league is squished together more this season.  Indeed, the median for this year to date is 3.7 versus last year’s 4.3.  Of course last year, we know the Colts and Saints sat people the last couple of weeks.  So let’s cut this off at Week 14:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 Saints 13 1 0 15.493 0.814 25
2 Colts 14 0 0 14.307 2.539 9
3 Ravens 8 6 0 12.084 2.477 10
4 Patriots 9 5 0 11.972 3.544 3
5 Eagles 10 4 0 11.075 1.468 18
6 Vikings 11 3 0 10.768 0.072 28
7 Chargers 11 3 0 9.875 0.946 23
8 Cowboys 9 5 0 8.714 1.964 16
9 Packers 9 5 0 8.408 -0.36 30
10 Giants 8 6 0 7.431 3.163 4
11 Bengals 9 5 0 6.668 2.026 15
12 Jets 7 7 0 6.498 1.123 20
13 Cardinals 9 5 0 6.079 0.151 27
14 Broncos 8 6 0 5.66 2.321 11
15 Texans 7 7 0 5.535 0.856 24
16 49ers 6 8 0 5.438 2.759 8
17 Falcons 7 7 0 5.275 3.9 1
18 Dolphins 7 7 0 4.399 3.613 2
19 Steelers 7 7 0 4.274 0.024 29
20 Titans 7 7 0 3.663 2.806 6
21 Panthers 6 8 0 1.988 2.952 5
22 Jaguars 7 7 0 -0.727 1.433 19
23 Bears 5 9 0 -1.265 1.717 17
24 Bills 5 9 0 -1.654 1.096 21
25 Redskins 4 10 0 -2.122 -0.479 31
26 Seahawks 5 9 0 -4.381 -0.81 32
27 Bucs 2 12 0 -5.989 2.797 7
28 Browns 3 11 0 -6.633 2.082 14
29 Raiders 5 9 0 -6.823 2.302 12
30 Chiefs 3 11 0 -8.12 0.415 26
31 Lions 2 12 0 -10.148 2.191 13
32 Rams 1 13 0 -12.059 1.048 22

The bookends are even MORE pronounced once we removed the garbage time week.  In fact last year by that time, there were four teams that graded higher than any team does this year.  Last year, there was only one team within three points of the Saints (the Colts).  As of now there are 7 teams separated by that margin at the top.  I am not sure if Tennessee is the best, and the wins sure don’t indicate that they are.  But the numbers are so constricted that their case that they could be … is not torn to crap – not yet anyway.

As far as other news goes?  The Bucs are sure low ranked for a 28th rated team.  Deal with it, they need to beat somebody we respect  Finally, I am not sure if the Eagles are the 2nd best team in the NFC, but if Vick is healthy and it clicks like last night – their offense can surely impersonate an unbeatable lot.

 

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