As Miami is fighting through injuries and the Spurs have sort of kept the pace, the buried lead of the season as we turn past the halfway point is that the Hornets ain’t goin anywhere. After an initial swoon, Chris Paul’s team is suddenly 30-16 and in a really good position in the West playoff race. The free for all in the East is what has my attention though. The rankings methodology is here:
| Rank | Team | W | L | Off | Def | Road | SOS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 31 | 13 | 103.732 (4) | 95.441 (5) | 1.83 | 1.356 (26) | 11.477 |
| 2 | Spurs | 38 | 7 | 104.029 (3) | 96.17 (7) | 1.478 | 2.013 (11) | 11.349 |
| 3 | Celtics | 33 | 10 | 101.607 (10) | 94.001 (2) | 1.547 | 1.406 (25) | 10.559 |
| 4 | Lakers | 32 | 13 | 104.235 (2) | 97.072 (8) | 1.789 | 0.719 (30) | 9.67 |
| 5 | Magic | 29 | 16 | 101.957 (9) | 96.057 (6) | 1.711 | 1.472 (24) | 9.082 |
| 6 | Bulls | 31 | 14 | 98.146 (19) | 92.132 (1) | 1.556 | 1.13 (27) | 8.7 |
| 7 | Hornets | 30 | 16 | 98.298 (18) | 94.286 (3) | 1.674 | 2.527 (3) | 8.213 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 28 | 15 | 100.147 (13) | 97.533 (10) | 1.628 | 2.68 (2) | 6.921 |
| 9 | Nuggets | 25 | 18 | 104.263 (1) | 101.67 (23) | 1.465 | 2.349 (5) | 6.407 |
| 10 | Thunder | 28 | 16 | 102.386 (7) | 100.641 (18) | 1.75 | 2.392 (4) | 5.887 |
| 11 | Hawks | 29 | 16 | 99.756 (14) | 97.435 (9) | 1.867 | 0.785 (29) | 4.974 |
| 12 | Knicks | 23 | 21 | 102.486 (6) | 101.058 (21) | 1.909 | 1.583 (19) | 4.92 |
| 13 | Jazz | 27 | 17 | 101.342 (11) | 100.242 (16) | 1.75 | 1.515 (21) | 4.365 |
| 14 | Rockets | 21 | 25 | 102.256 (8) | 101.817 (24) | 1.826 | 1.851 (13) | 4.116 |
| 15 | Blazers | 25 | 21 | 99.28 (15) | 98.756 (15) | 1.826 | 1.5 (22) | 3.85 |
| 16 | Sixers | 19 | 25 | 98.026 (20) | 97.663 (11) | 1.83 | 1.519 (20) | 3.712 |
| 17 | Grizzlies | 22 | 23 | 97.684 (21) | 98.285 (14) | 1.944 | 1.815 (14) | 3.159 |
| 18 | Bucks | 16 | 26 | 93.359 (29) | 95.293 (4) | 1.917 | 2.93 (1) | 2.913 |
| 19 | Suns | 20 | 23 | 102.812 (5) | 104.293 (29) | 1.872 | 1.746 (17) | 2.138 |
| 20 | Pacers | 16 | 25 | 95.454 (24) | 97.738 (12) | 1.793 | 2.038 (9) | 1.546 |
| 21 | Warriors | 19 | 25 | 100.474 (12) | 103.23 (27) | 1.83 | 2.008 (12) | 1.081 |
| 22 | Clippers | 17 | 26 | 98.358 (17) | 101.508 (22) | 1.302 | 2.125 (7) | 0.277 |
| 23 | Bobcats | 17 | 25 | 95 (26) | 97.903 (13) | 1.583 | 1.478 (23) | 0.158 |
| 24 | Pistons | 17 | 28 | 97.33 (23) | 102.214 (25) | 1.867 | 2.024 (10) | -0.994 |
| 25 | Raptors | 13 | 32 | 98.8 (16) | 104.36 (30) | 1.867 | 2.215 (6) | -1.479 |
| 26 | Timberwolves | 10 | 34 | 97.563 (22) | 103.096 (26) | 1.83 | 2.121 (8) | -1.582 |
| 27 | Kings | 10 | 32 | 95.185 (25) | 100.355 (17) | 1.667 | 0.899 (28) | -2.604 |
| 28 | Nets | 13 | 32 | 94.741 (28) | 100.93 (19) | 1.867 | 1.714 (18) | -2.609 |
| 29 | Wizards | 13 | 30 | 94.835 (27) | 101.053 (20) | 1.709 | 1.81 (15) | -2.698 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 8 | 36 | 92.699 (30) | 104.125 (28) | 1.989 | 1.794 (16) | -7.644 |
As of this pressing, the East is in terms of rankings a few distinct levels:
- The Heat are of course #1, the Celtics #3 and Magic #5, Bulls #6. The ratings spread is 2.7 points – basically right within the home court margin of 3.5 points. Put simply, they are pretty close.
- The Hawks are #11 with a pedestrian rating of 4.974. Relative to East teams, the Knicks, Sixers, Bucks and Pacers are all within home court range. That said, the Hawks are 29-16, so while they are lucky, that is a huge lead over anyone else in the flotsam. This makes them a sort of one team tier.
- So 3 playoff positions with the Knicks, Sixers, Bucks, Pacers all rating kinda similarly, with the #23 Bobcats and #24 Pistons being peers recordwise. Earlier in the year it seemed like the Knicks were safe, and as the only above .500 team in this bunch – their position is probably safe. However, there is little room to move, and 23-21 does not inspire much confidence.
- The Bucks continue to amaze – and I have no idea if they will ever match the preseason promise. Despite the presence of Corey Maggette and Drew Gooden, brought in specifically to augment their offense, they remain a 29th in the league – only held up by the shocking awfulness of the Cavaliers. Their badness on offense is marked by a general total inability to shoot the ball. Their shot generation is actually not bad. They grab a fair number of misses, only 12th in turnover rate – 5th in the league in shot generation, but just dead last in true shooting percentage. This involves last place FG% combined with both low frequency and low percentage of three pointers – offsetting reasonable foul shooting. However, the Bucks have played the league’s toughest slate to date – but their inability to just put the ball in the basket has been vexing. The reason they are in any sort of playoff conversation is 1) it’s the east and 2) their defense (4th overall) is still very stern.
