Yeah, this is EXACTLY how I expected the teams to stack up heading into the second half of the season. As always, rankings and formula are here:
| Rank | Team | W | L | Pythag | SOS | Recent | RecRank | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 49 | 37 | 0.558 (7) | 0.502 (13) | 0.646 | 1 | 0.569 |
| 2 | Washington Nationals | 49 | 34 | 0.59 (2) | 0.504 (9) | 0.594 | 3 | 0.563 |
| 3 | Anaheim Angels | 48 | 38 | 0.562 (6) | 0.501 (14) | 0.606 | 2 | 0.556 |
| 4 | Chicago White Sox | 47 | 38 | 0.583 (5) | 0.497 (19) | 0.564 | 5 | 0.548 |
| 5 | Saint Louis Cardinals | 46 | 40 | 0.589 (3) | 0.509 (5) | 0.538 | 8 | 0.545 |
| 6 | New York Mets | 46 | 40 | 0.526 (12) | 0.5 (15) | 0.59 | 4 | 0.539 |
| 7 | Texas Rangers | 52 | 34 | 0.597 (1) | 0.504 (12) | 0.505 | 17 | 0.535 |
| 8 | New York Yankees | 52 | 33 | 0.588 (4) | 0.486 (28) | 0.512 | 15 | 0.529 |
| 9 | Boston Red Sox | 43 | 43 | 0.548 (8) | 0.496 (20) | 0.524 | 10 | 0.522 |
| 10 | Detroit Tigers | 44 | 42 | 0.508 (15) | 0.492 (24) | 0.56 | 6 | 0.52 |
| 11 | Oakland Athletics | 43 | 43 | 0.505 (17) | 0.494 (21) | 0.557 | 7 | 0.518 |
| 12 | Atlanta Braves | 46 | 39 | 0.545 (9) | 0.491 (26) | 0.515 | 12 | 0.517 |
| 13 | Milwaukee Brewers | 40 | 45 | 0.488 (18) | 0.519 (1) | 0.537 | 9 | 0.515 |
| 14 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 42 | 43 | 0.514 (14) | 0.511 (3) | 0.518 | 11 | 0.514 |
| 15 | Cincinnati Reds | 47 | 39 | 0.538 (10) | 0.5 (16) | 0.497 | 18 | 0.511 |
| 16 | Toronto Blue Jays | 43 | 43 | 0.529 (11) | 0.491 (25) | 0.486 | 19 | 0.502 |
| 17 | Cleveland Indians | 44 | 41 | 0.464 (21) | 0.493 (23) | 0.514 | 13 | 0.49 |
| 18 | Seattle Mariners | 37 | 51 | 0.472 (20) | 0.49 (27) | 0.506 | 16 | 0.489 |
| 19 | Tampa Bay Rays | 45 | 41 | 0.506 (16) | 0.485 (29) | 0.463 | 23 | 0.484 |
| 20 | San Francisco Giants | 46 | 40 | 0.488 (19) | 0.507 (7) | 0.429 | 25 | 0.475 |
| 21 | Kansas City Royals | 37 | 47 | 0.444 (24) | 0.498 (18) | 0.475 | 21 | 0.472 |
| 22 | San Diego Padres | 34 | 53 | 0.391 (30) | 0.51 (4) | 0.512 | 14 | 0.471 |
| 23 | Chicago Cubs | 33 | 51 | 0.423 (26) | 0.499 (17) | 0.485 | 20 | 0.469 |
| 24 | Miami Marlins | 41 | 44 | 0.423 (25) | 0.504 (11) | 0.467 | 22 | 0.465 |
| 25 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 47 | 40 | 0.515 (13) | 0.512 (2) | 0.365 | 30 | 0.464 |
| 26 | Philadelphia Phillies | 36 | 50 | 0.454 (22) | 0.509 (6) | 0.411 | 26 | 0.458 |
| 27 | Colorado Rockies | 32 | 52 | 0.416 (27) | 0.504 (10) | 0.404 | 28 | 0.441 |
| 28 | Minnesota Twins | 36 | 49 | 0.392 (29) | 0.493 (22) | 0.436 | 24 | 0.44 |
| 29 | Houston Astros | 33 | 53 | 0.406 (28) | 0.505 (8) | 0.407 | 27 | 0.44 |
| 30 | Baltimore Orioles | 45 | 40 | 0.451 (23) | 0.479 (30) | 0.377 | 29 | 0.436 |
While somehow or another I do not expect the Pirates to keep churning out this level of performance – at the same time, the pitching behind James McDonald has been really good, and clearly Andrew McCutchen is having an MVP caliber season. Even if they just go .500 the rest of the way, that is a 87-75, which puts them well within reach of the wild card. Using the power rankings as a proxy win pct, they project even better. Indeed, if we use the overall ranking to forecast projected record, the playoff seeds might look like this:
American League
- Rangers (93-69)
- Yankees (93-69)
- White Sox (89-73)
- Angels (90-72)
- Tigers (84-78)
As such, with the added wild card team, the race for the last playoff spot has thrown the AL into chaos – as there are a lot of teams with .500-ish projections. Boson (83-79), Oakland (82-80), Toronto (81-81), Cleveland (82-80), Tampa (82-80), Baltimore (79-83) all project to maybe be around to to the final week. So there is a ton of baseball to be played and a seeming guarantee that a meh team could win the world series.
The NL
- Nationals (93-69)
- Pirates (92-70)
- Diamondbacks (82-80)
- Cardinals (87-75)
- Mets (87-75)
The NL is a bit more top heavy I suppose, though the Braves (87), Reds (86), Brewers (80) and Giants/Dodgers (82) are around too. What is interesting is the stark lack of the teams that make the system so (sniff!) unfair. Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers all not represented (though a couple of those teams are on the fringes). While I do not expect this to be a true small market World Series, the claim that baseball has to the best parity model of any sport is still very much in tow.
The Pirates are playing great baseball, but it’s hard to forget their meltdown a year ago.
Sure. But they also had a negative run differential while putting up a decent record. This has been a stronger outfit. Not saying it will last, but they deserve the respect accorded to a strong team while they are.
Agreed.