Tag Archives: Baltimore

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2012 MLB Update #2

Last time we did this was at the end of May – where the surprising start of the Los Angeles Dodgers had seemed to be lording over the league – of course after four straight shutout losses, and Matt Kemp’s prolonged absence – their hideous offense has seemed to catch up with them.  (Seriously, James Loney as a a first basemen for a team with any aspirations – .236/.303/.323).  Saint Louis has seemed to be the best in the NL – at least thinking about them entering the season, and it has largely stood up – although their close game record has been peculiar.   But as we hurtle towards the halfway point of the season, suddenly the cream is starting to rise:

Rank Team W L Pythag SOS Recent RecRank Total
1 Texas Rangers 49 29 0.629 (1) 0.501 (16) 0.579 5 0.569
2 Boston Red Sox 41 36 0.573 (6) 0.499 (19) 0.623 1 0.565
3 Anaheim Angels 43 34 0.578 (5) 0.498 (20) 0.616 2 0.564
4 Chicago White Sox 42 35 0.57 (7) 0.508 (6) 0.56 7 0.546
5 Washington Nationals 44 31 0.582 (3) 0.504 (12) 0.551 8 0.546
6 New York Mets 42 36 0.532 (11) 0.498 (21) 0.593 3 0.541
7 Saint Louis Cardinals 40 37 0.583 (2) 0.512 (3) 0.504 14 0.533
8 New York Yankees 46 30 0.581 (4) 0.487 (26) 0.526 11 0.531
9 Pittsburgh Pirates 41 35 0.505 (16) 0.504 (11) 0.584 4 0.531
10 Arizona Diamondbacks 39 37 0.533 (10) 0.506 (9) 0.546 9 0.528
11 Oakland Athletics 37 41 0.502 (17) 0.49 (24) 0.56 6 0.517
12 San Francisco Giants 44 34 0.526 (14) 0.511 (5) 0.504 15 0.514
13 Cincinnati Reds 42 35 0.527 (13) 0.504 (10) 0.506 13 0.512
14 Toronto Blue Jays 39 38 0.535 (8) 0.487 (27) 0.497 17 0.507
15 Milwaukee Brewers 34 42 0.471 (21) 0.519 (1) 0.503 16 0.498
16 Philadelphia Phillies 36 43 0.484 (18) 0.511 (4) 0.497 18 0.497
17 Tampa Bay Rays 41 36 0.508 (15) 0.483 (29) 0.495 19 0.495
18 Kansas City Royals 35 39 0.458 (23) 0.499 (18) 0.526 10 0.494
19 Detroit Tigers 37 40 0.481 (19) 0.492 (23) 0.508 12 0.494
20 Atlanta Braves 40 36 0.534 (9) 0.487 (28) 0.43 27 0.484
21 Los Angeles Dodgers 43 35 0.53 (12) 0.513 (2) 0.381 30 0.475
22 Seattle Mariners 34 46 0.467 (22) 0.488 (25) 0.44 24 0.465
23 Baltimore Orioles 42 34 0.476 (20) 0.473 (30) 0.445 23 0.464
24 Houston Astros 32 45 0.429 (26) 0.507 (7) 0.447 22 0.461
25 Cleveland Indians 38 38 0.433 (24) 0.499 (17) 0.438 26 0.457
26 Chicago Cubs 27 48 0.405 (27) 0.504 (13) 0.454 21 0.454
27 San Diego Padres 28 50 0.365 (30) 0.506 (8) 0.482 20 0.451
28 Colorado Rockies 29 46 0.429 (25) 0.504 (14) 0.394 29 0.442
29 Miami Marlins 36 40 0.404 (28) 0.501 (15) 0.4 28 0.435
30 Minnesota Twins 30 45 0.366 (29) 0.497 (22) 0.44 25 0.434

We have been waiting for the Rangers to really start to assert themselves. Indeed Texas and Anaheim on paper looked like the best teams in baseball entering the season – Anaheim with its terrific pitching and Texas with its overall balance.  I don’t buy Boston as the #2 team either, but they have been very good lately with a 12-7 record and the top run differential during that time.  Bobby Valentine is a weird, oily guy – and Terry Francona did a magnificent job in his time – but Bobby has done an outstanding job with a patchwork outfield and figuring out a bullpen which looked like a human powder keg.

Clearly – the paper tiger so far has been Baltimore, with a negative run differential but still a 42-34 record.  On the other hand, with the second wild card position – that is 42 wins they don’t have to get, so while the rankings project Baltimore to finish 82-80, 85-77 might be good enough to make the playoffs.  What is particularly notable this season is how close the entire field actually is.  You look at the rankings themselves – the difference between #4 and #10 works out to 2 wins over a 162 game slate.  Indeed, the rankings only see four 90 win teams right now (Rangers, Angels, Yankees, Nationals) let alone any 100 win team.  This season has been a particular display of parity and it will be interesting to see if this holds.

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2011 NFL Power Rankings #3

Another week, another number one bites the dust.  Of course, as the underlying quality of the teams gets revealed, some of the movement in the rankings is explained there.  Also – now with 4 games down, the “good team” criteria kicks in.  So if a team has at least played 1/3 of their schedule (1 game so far) against > .500 RPI teams, the games count in that comparison criteria.  Anyway, at number one is probably the people’s number one:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Packers 4 0 0.802 (1) 19.875 (2) 31
2 Lions 4 0 0.776 (2) 15.104 (5) 30
3 Patriots 3 1 0.696 (5) 17.979 (3) 27
4 Bills 3 1 0.698 (4) 13.521 (6) 27
5 Saints 3 1 0.724 (3) 17.208 (4) 27
6 Titans 3 1 0.651 (6) 12.063 (8) 26
7 Ravens 3 1 0.651 (6) 21.292 (1) 26
8 Texans 3 1 0.63 (9) 12.375 (7) 23
9 Cowboys 2 2 0.573 (13) 12 (9) 23
10 49ers 3 1 0.599 (11) 8.083 (10) 21
11 Redskins 3 1 0.641 (8) 6.833 (13) 20
12 Raiders 2 2 0.542 (15) 7.938 (11) 19
13 Jets 2 2 0.526 (17) 6.938 (12) 18
14 Bucs 3 1 0.554 (14) 3.917 (18) 18
15 Giants 3 1 0.618 (10) 6.625 (15) 17
16 Bengals 2 2 0.516 (19) 6.563 (16) 16
17 Bears 2 2 0.49 (20) 6.792 (14) 16
18 Steelers 2 2 0.526 (17) 4.188 (17) 12
19 Broncos 1 3 0.401 (22) 1.917 (20) 12
20 Chargers 3 1 0.583 (12) -1.229 (23) 9
21 Falcons 2 2 0.536 (16) -2.75 (26) 8
22 Jaguars 1 3 0.354 (25) -6.292 (27) 7
23 Eagles 1 3 0.354 (24) 1.042 (21) 6
24 Browns 2 2 0.406 (21) -6.333 (28) 5
25 Panthers 1 3 0.333 (26) 0.042 (22) 5
26 Cardinals 1 3 0.297 (28) 3.208 (19) 5
27 Seahawks 1 3 0.302 (27) -8.167 (29) 3
28 Dolphins 0 4 0.234 (30) -2.208 (24) 2
29 Vikings 0 4 0.255 (29) -2.396 (25) 2
30 Chiefs 1 3 0.359 (23) -12.063 (32) 1
31 Colts 0 4 0.214 (32) -9.208 (30) 0
32 Rams 0 4 0.229 (31) -10.354 (31) 0

Notes?

  • Detroit leaps to #2 both by staying unbeaten and beating a team who has been well regarded so far.  Dallas, #9 on this list, is only 2-2, but has played four good opponents.  They are just a bit behind Green Bay, though I think it is fair to say GB passes the eye test as well as the numerical one.
  • Baltimore, with the best adjusted scoring margin in the league, seems to have the most upside of any team on the list.  They have shown a propensity to score, though the Sunday game against the Jets was a different deal with all those returns and whatnot.
  • It is impossible to write this without mentioning the Eagles, suddenly 1-3 and 2 games off the pace in the NFC East.  Given the crazy level of turnover they underwent, it stands to reason that they will be a better team in Week 10 than now.  However, the team has to put some games away, or it might be too late.  This is not the NBA or baseball, where you have 50 games to iron things out.
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2010 NFL Power Rankings – Final

Well, one week of the playoffs is already in the can … that said, for posterity’s sake, here are the final numbers:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Patriots 14 2 0 17.09 3.481 2 1
2 Packers 10 6 0 13.324 2.745 6 3
3 Steelers 12 4 0 12.965 2.653 9 4
4 Falcons 13 3 0 10.79 1.353 22 5
5 Chargers 9 7 0 9.833 0.833 24 2
6 Ravens 12 4 0 8.99 1.803 16 7
7 Jets 11 5 0 8.251 2.329 11 8
8 Eagles 10 6 0 7.571 2.164 12 6
9 Saints 11 5 0 6.634 0.29 28 9
10 Colts 10 6 0 6.559 1.872 14 10
11 Bears 11 5 0 6.182 1.666 20 13
12 Raiders 8 8 0 4.792 1.495 21 15
13 Giants 10 6 0 4.647 0.475 25 11
14 Titans 6 10 0 4.588 1.854 15 12
15 Lions 6 10 0 3.851 2.851 5 16
16 Chiefs 10 6 0 3.771 -0.479 30 14
17 Bucs 10 6 0 3.59 0.403 27 21
18 Texans 6 10 0 1.895 2.458 10 19
19 Dolphins 7 9 0 1.302 3.302 3 17
20 Cowboys 6 10 0 1.125 1.797 17 20
21 Browns 5 11 0 0.733 2.671 7 18
22 Bengals 4 12 0 0.317 3.755 1 27
23 Vikings 6 10 0 0.218 2.656 8 24
24 49ers 6 10 0 -0.447 0.459 26 28
25 Redskins 6 10 0 -0.87 1.974 13 26
26 Rams 7 9 0 -1.355 -0.871 31 25
27 Jaguars 8 8 0 -1.423 0.952 23 22
28 Bills 4 12 0 -3.284 3.231 4 23
29 Seahawks 7 9 0 -3.974 0.151 29 29
30 Broncos 4 12 0 -4.008 1.773 18 30
31 Cardinals 5 11 0 -8.242 -0.945 32 31
32 Panthers 2 14 0 -9.675 1.732 19 32

If we used the raw numbers from this thing for the wild card round, we would have had (without adjusting for home field):

Saints by 10.6 over the Seahawks, Jets by 1.8 over the Colts, Ravens by 5.2 over the Chiefs, Packers by 5.7 over the Eagles.  Pat on the back for me, even if my picks did not make the mark!

For the record, incorporating the Week 18 results, the raw numbers for this weekends matchups (the delta in “margin”):

Steelers by 2.8 over the Ravens, Packers by 2.6 over the Falcons, Patriots by 8.7 over the Jets, Bears by 9.3 over the Seahawks … picks to come later in the week

 

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2010 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round

Wow, it HAS been a while, hasn’t it? Anyhoo, Happy New Year to this teeny tiny following here, and I hope that your holidays have been good. Writing from India, obviously great blogging time has been intermittent. (Thus the dearth of power rankings) Of course, there will be posts covering that adventure forthcoming.

However, there is the business at hand, the wild card round and the four matches. With time a wastin before my flight tonight, time to get some wrong picks out there. This way if I am wrong, I have to be accountable – I did not attend Tom Coughlin’s school of blame shifting.

New Orleans Saints (-10.5) at Seattle Seahawks: It is hard for this to not offend my sensibility. The Seahawks of Pete Carroll, by virtue of their location in the truly execrable NFC West, rode a 7-9 record to a home game against the Saints. The Saints are considerable still, though lacking the creds of last year, in particular a decimated running back corps. The defense has been less turnover strong than a year ago. But come on! Even with home field, the Seabags were one of the league’s worst most of the season, and they were debating QBs for the game. The only question is if the Saints cover. Saints 34, Seahawks 17

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5): Rematch of last year’s AFC title game. The Jets are better, the Colts are worse. Now, the Jets have issues running consistently, while Mark Sanchez is beat up at quarterback. The defense is strong though. However the blitz heavy defense is made to order for Peyton Manning if his line can block. And they’ll have to with their injuries at skill positions and their near total inability to run. Peyton can make any prognosticator look bad, but the Jets have to be smarter in their defense this season, especially with a stronger cornerback tandem. Few points but Jets 20, Colts 14

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5): Rematch of week 1, but this might as well not be. That Eagle team thought Kevin Kolb would be starting. Instead we have the force of nature that is Mike Vick back in the playoffs for the first time in 6 seasons. The Eagles are the most dynamic offense in the league with unmatched big play ability from both passing and running avenues. The Packers have a big play defense and their own force of nature in Aaron Rodgers quarterbacking, but a line that gives him little help, and a total inability to run the football. The Eagles defense makes plays but gives points up, while their return and kicking game require no explanation. Anyway, this is clearly the best game of the weekend. The Eagles do just enough. Eagles 31, Packers 28

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs: The playoffs are back in Kansas City, which is neat. And this team is in line with what the 90s Martyball teams would love – running hard, passing smart, strong defense. Baltimore clearly is an elite team, especially when they keep the offense focused around Ray Rice like they did in their win over the Saints in Week 15. The defense gets the ink, but they have given up big ground games to opponents much of the year. In a lot of ways this is an offense driven Raven team between Flacco, Rice and their depth at receiver. Baltimore scares me as a Patriots fan but they have to advance first, and the Chiefs might be the wrong matchup. This is no fun without calling a surprise. Chiefs 23, Ravens 20

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Divisionals and The Conference Finals

I do not have the notes in front of me (nor the time to research) if this has been the least competitive playoff tournament in NFL history.  That said, it’s pretty darn uncompetitive.  Eight games in two weekends – only two true crackers, although certainly compelling.  One thing that we discover again though from the divisionals was the power of the bye.  It is easy to rally behind good looking wildcard winners – but bye winners get them for a reason.  Some quick thoughts:

Saints 45, Cardinals 14 – I tuned out at halftime.  This was a royal butt kicking, a demonstration of the Saints ridiculous speed, and the Cardinals pathetic defense.  80 points in 3 playoff halves does not a Super Bowl Champion make.  While Reggie Bush is a poor man’s Joshua Cribbs with a better agent, he had a humongous impact.  Really this was a good team that depends on speed, letting it loose on turf.  The Saints defense while not great, is excellent at front running.

Colts 20, Ravens 3 – The Ravens successfully threw the ball downfield on their first drive then stopped trying the rest of the way.  Their offense looked constipated and hopelessly dependent on Ray Rice, and had none of the nasty up front they showed against the Patriots.  Flacco was not especially good, but the game plan was really really mediocre.  I’m not sure John Harbaugh was even awake.  On the other side, the Colts speedy defense is built to eat this sort of vanilla crap up.  The Colts were so untested defensively that the offense did not have to be great, aside from a key drive at the end of the half.  Really a perfect result – a win where they held back tactically – really have to consider this great fortune.

Vikings 34, Cowboys 3 - Karma can be a bitch, and the Vikings blatantly running up the score in the 4th might come back to haunt them.  However, this does not discount what a tremendous game they played.  Favre of course was excellent – his first TD pass was beautiful and his little move to avoid the sack for the 2nd TD was savvy also.  The defense was dominant, stopping anything the Cowboys tried inside and giving Tony Romo so little time, I can’t even blame him for his performance.  The Cowboys did not go downfield – but I don’t know how much time they had to make any sort of 15-25 yard route develop!  The end runs by Felix Jones were the only plays they hit consistently, but that was not nearly enough.

Jets 17, Chargers 14 – The downside of being a defensively oriented, possession minimizing team is that it is hard to blow an opponent away.  The upside of course, is that it is hard to be blown out.  This game had a classic arc, akin to the Patriots highway robbery of the Chargers in 2006.  The Chargers executed quite the ass whoopin in the first half yardage wise.  They were moving the ball without a ton of difficulty while the Jets looked completely overmatched offensively.  However, with Nate Kaeding’s gakked 36 yarder, the Chargers could only take a 7-0 lead with them into halftime.  Sure the lead LOOKED huge because of the Jets incompetence on offense, and inability on paper to scheme their way from behind.  But it is still a 1 possession game – all you need is a play and some luck.  The break came from the Rivers pick on his side of the field, and suddenly the Jets had the short field which they cashed into the go-ahead TD.  Adding Shonn Greene’s run to make it 17-7, the Jets then had some luck when they managed to hang on to a perfect onsides kick.  Just like that, AFC title game bound.  Also, much should be said about Mark Sanchez – the rookie is a clear role player in this offense, but has made a lot of third down plays to keep drives going – and that is a hat tip in his general direction.

So what about the two games Sunday?

Colts 24, Jets 10 – Cinderella stops right here.  The Jets strength defensively is getting pressure on Manning and sealing off the outside with Revis.  Manning, as a terrific veteran QB, is adept at breaking the blitz down and finding the open receivers – heck, Rivers made the big mistakes last week, but still put up numbers showing that the Jets can be sliced apart if the line can keep the QB upright.  However, Dallas Clark is the key here.  The Colts can slice the middle of the field better than the Chargers (and definitely the Bengals) with their TE/Slot game – and that takes Darrelle Revis out of the equation.  The Jets will have to be judicious with their overloading and blitzing and their up the middle guys need to be able to match up.  Good luck with that.  The Colts defense will not be tested in the same manner – though the Jets physicality against their speed is an interesting matchup.  If the Jets had a reliable downfield game, this could be interesting – alas.

Saints 31, Vikings 28 – Should I be cynical and assume that Brett Favre will make one backbreaking interception at some point in the proceedings?  He has not done that virtually all year – so maybe the balanced offense will help here.  Adrian Peterson has been excellent this season if your standard is not skewed by Chris Johnson.  However the shock and awe has not been there.  Will that be a problem against the Saints – I don’t know.  The Saints speed in the backfield and aggressive pass rush make for a good team with a lead.  They will allow points.  So that leaves the Vikings stout D against the Saints wildly imaginative offense.  The Saints in the dome are hard to deal with, and the down hill inside running that the Vikings are so good at stopping is not essential to the Saint attack.  Can the Vikings stop their speed?  They will give it a go, but not quite.

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Wild Card Weekend and The Divisionals

Full disclosure – I had a previous commitment which precluded me from watching the best (and perhaps, only good) one of the four wildcard matchups – the hellacious Arizona 51-45 win over Green Bay – aside from highlight form.  I expect it will be NFL Network’s game of the week – so some more complete thoughts are warranted then.  Obviously sounded like a great game – if not a great defensive performance until the end – and full marks to Arizona for stemming the tide when the Packers seemed to have turned things around.  As for the rest of it:

Jets 24, Bengals 14 – The Jets continued their physical, mauling defense and stifled the Bengals passing game.  Darrelle Revis is the best cover CB in the league obviously, and the Jets front seven is good enough to not make him defend more than he (or any defensive back) can.  But the offensive side of the ball was where the Jets triumphed.  The Jets have been ultra careful not to expose Sanchez – and they did a great job keeping him from being stuck in “pass when we have to pass” situations.  They remained unpredictable with their running game and used it to give Sanchez some easy throws which he made.  And hey he showed poise.

Cowboys 34, Eagles 14 – The Eagles are an outstanding football team.  They hung 45 up on the Giants very recently, they beat some good opponents, their offense is young and gifted in so many places.  The Cowboys just match up very well with them, especially in the trenches where so many games are won.  The Cowboys just flogged the Eagles up front and the rest took care of itself.  The way the Cowboys have played since shocking New Orleans a few weeks back, they are going to be a very tough out.

Ravens 33, Patriots 14 – A complete wipeout.  The Ravens and Patriots have been different teams all season – the Patriots have been so beaten up by injury and attrition, their lack of depth at receiver was exposed.  Their defense has been below average much of the season.  The Ravens suffered from a lot of bad luck and lot of close losses.  But their upside is so much greater than the Patriots and they played near the top of their form.  This was a physical beat down – and the shocking beginning upset any game plan the Patriots might have had.  Just a sad day in Mudville.  The Patriots Era is not over – not by any stretch – but Belichick (one of his poorer coaching seasons) has some work to do.

So now the iron enters the fray.  The Wild Card memories reek with the bias of recency – and we tend to forget that the reason the teams with byes got them was because they deserved them largely.  Does this mean we will see four servings to the firing squad?

Cardinals at Saints – The Cardinals defense got lit up by a very talented Green Bay team.  The Saints indoors might be even more gifted.  Kurt Warner has proven how good he is when is protected.  Facing a very aggressive Gregg Williams defense, the challenge will be to rob Warner of time.  Can it happen?  Sure – especially with Anquan Boldin hurt (though he might be available, who knows – either way not 100%).  The Saints ended the season on a 3 game losing streak, including a varsity-free Week 17.  However, the bye, being at home, and their ability to generate speed all bode well.  I admire the Cardinals toughness – this is a better team than the one that stumbled into the Super Bowl last season – but the Saints have too much firepower under the dome.  Saints 34, Cardinals 24

Ravens at Colts – This is not your father’s Colts team.  I am not sure how much I have seen them really light it up.  It is a testament to Peyton’s brilliance that they have not dropped off offensively.  That said, the Ravens defense is good – maybe not as good as they looked against the fossilized Patriots attack, but good.  The Colts though have had trouble exploding at times – though augmented by better defense than normal.  Their first meeting was a 17-15 tight game where the Ravens had 5 FGs, and against a good team you need more TDs.  Colts inside though should have a little better luck.  Colts 24 , Ravens 17

Cowboys at Vikings – Vikings stumbled down the stretch.  Cowboys are surging and riding a nasty physical defense and an explosive balanced offense.  The Vikings, aside from pasting a character-free Giants team, have shown vulnerability.  The size on the inside of their defensive front bodes well against the Cowboys, but the outside defense, I am less certain.  Also Favre has been good at serving up key turnovers against good teams.  There are so many pro Cowboys signs that I should veer the other way and pick a Vikings rout, but the Cowboys have looked so strong.  I will hate myself for this: Cowboys 27, Vikings 24

Jets at Chargers – The Jets defense and blitzing will cut into what the Chargers like doing – throwing the ball deep.  The Chargers will have to be patient, and might have to win a rock fight.  The Jets running game also plays well against a very suspect Chargers defensive front.  And as last week showed, Sanchez can make a play or two if the situations are handled smartly.  That said, the firepower for th Jets is limited with Braylon Edwards being more likely to drop a big play than make one.  The Chargers will struggle, but not enough.  Chargers 20, Jets 10

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Happy New Year – NFL Playoffs are Back

With 17 weeks in the book, it is time to offer some thoughts on each of the Wild Card matchups, going in chronological order:

However first of all, some comment on the Wes Welker injury.  It happens – first quarter, guy makes a cut, untouched, season over.  (or whatever, given how coy Bill Belichick is)  It is tempting to say that this validates the Colts decision to sit their starters and turn their backs on an unbeaten season (not accomplished since the 1972 Miami Dolphins) – which has its eloquent defenders.  The defenses are fair and reasonable.  However, the argument misses a couple of key points:

  • History.  The unbeaten season is historically a fairly big deal – there is a reason that it has not been chased down in 37 years – it’s hard!  No true football fan believes that the 1972 Dolphins are the greatest team of all time.  But they are the one that never lost a game, and so there is immortality.  Maybe the players don’t care – somehow I doubt it.
  • Causation.  The 2007 Patriots did not lose the Super Bowl due to the chase of history.  There may have been stress factors, and dealing with being cast as villains – but really that might have been 2% of the cause.  The Giants were just better once – which is how single elimination tends to work.
  • You never know.  Welker blew out his knee in a somewhat meaningless game.  But it was the first quarter, he was not touched.  Manning could have been hurt in the same manner.  Football is a hard game.  Heck, airplane travel is dangerous – but the Patriots made the trip.  They are not faberge eggs – you hope they don’t go out like this, but it’s a risk with the sport.
  • Customer service.  The teams that DO play preseason games in January should declare their intentions.  Fans deserve (especially paying ones) to watch football.  They already are saddled with 2 preseason games, they should not be forced to buy a third or fourth.

Rant over.  Now to the playoff games:

  • Jets at Bengals:  One of three Week 17 rematches this weekend.  The Bengals did play their varsity against the Jets and the Jets, in a win or else mode, pasted them.  That said, the scenery changes to Cincinnati this weekend.  Both teams have stout defenses and pedestrian offenses, though the Bengals can throw the ball better.  The Jets are trying to keep Mark Sanchez away from having a role in the final result of games, but you cannot hide him forever.  He has star ability and presence, but he is a rookie and has looked like one.  The Jets have the league’s best defense and it’s best defensive player (Darrelle Revis).  The team can run and win bad weather games.  But the Bengals have a little more firepower and I suspect they held back a bit tactically.  Bengals 17, Jets 13
  • Eagles at Cowboys:  This is a little different.  Eagles had a lot to play for – a division title and a bye.  The bye of course increases the odds of winning it all geometrically.  The Cowboys manhandled them up front and won with defense and running.  There is the usual adage about the difficulty of beating a team three times, but the Cowboys physicality makes it hard to pick against them.  Cowboys 27, Eagles 17
  • Ravens at Patriots:  The Ravens are 9-7, theoretically limping into the postseason, like the 10-6 Patriots are.  However, I look at the Ravens 7 losses, and see that they were all to playoff teams except for a loss to the Steelers, and that they were outscored in those games by a combined 38 points.  In other words, the losses were competitive.  Add their second in the AFC +130 scoring margin, and the resume looks more impressive.  The Patriots have a higher scoring margin and 10-6, and playing at home, so they are in good shape, right?  Well, there is the Welker injury, that is one thing.  Tom Brady’s 3 broken ribs and resulting mediocre play is another thing.  They smashed bad teams and played well at home.  On the road their defense seemed not very good, and they had a knack for collapsing facing adversity.  The character seems lacking a bit.  They can beat the Ravens, but I have a hard time picturing it, with the injuries and all.  Ravens 23, Patriots 20
  • Packers at Cardinals: Well the Packers belted them 33-7 this past Sunday.  However, Arizona did play Matt Leinart extensively, and I am not sure how much they cared about the result.  The Cardinals have a true track record now, and this year even have some very big high profile wins.  The inconsistency is there (really the NFC is wide open), but the Cardinals know how to work in big games, especially if the weather is not a big deal.  The Packers with Rodgers can flat out score, and Charles Woodson has been magnificent defensively.  However, their protection has been an issue at times this season and I am not convinced they are ready to win this sort of game – not yet anyway.  Cardinals 30, Packers 27