Tag Archives: baseball

by

2012 MLB Update #4 – The Home Stretch

First, apologies in advance for the lack of attentiveness and diligence with putting together baseball missives – indeed the season has flown by, and the Red Sox-Dodgers blockbuster clearly announced the exit of Boston from the pennant chase and reconfigured the race for 2012 and beyond.  Or did it really?  A bit more on this, but first, the rankings as of today:

Rank Team W L Pythag SOS Recent RecRank Total
1 Saint Louis Cardinals 71 57 0.61 (1) 0.51 (2) 0.573 3 0.564
2 Atlanta Braves 73 56 0.579 (5) 0.496 (20) 0.616 2 0.564
3 Tampa Bay Rays 70 58 0.57 (6) 0.493 (23) 0.625 1 0.563
4 Washington Nationals 77 50 0.6 (2) 0.505 (6) 0.561 4 0.555
5 Chicago White Sox 71 56 0.565 (8) 0.505 (7) 0.557 5 0.542
6 Texas Rangers 76 52 0.593 (3) 0.496 (19) 0.536 11 0.542
7 Cincinnati Reds 78 52 0.568 (7) 0.508 (3) 0.537 10 0.538
8 New York Yankees 74 54 0.585 (4) 0.484 (30) 0.538 9 0.536
9 Oakland Athletics 70 57 0.541 (9) 0.493 (25) 0.544 8 0.526
10 Detroit Tigers 69 58 0.528 (12) 0.495 (22) 0.552 6 0.525
11 Milwaukee Brewers 60 67 0.507 (17) 0.514 (1) 0.545 7 0.522
12 Los Angeles Dodgers 69 60 0.53 (11) 0.507 (5) 0.523 14 0.52
13 Arizona Diamondbacks 64 65 0.527 (13) 0.505 (8) 0.525 13 0.519
14 San Francisco Giants 71 57 0.53 (10) 0.501 (11) 0.506 16 0.512
15 Seattle Mariners 62 67 0.504 (18) 0.488 (28) 0.533 12 0.508
16 Boston Red Sox 62 67 0.527 (14) 0.493 (24) 0.49 17 0.503
17 Pittsburgh Pirates 68 60 0.51 (16) 0.507 (4) 0.463 23 0.493
18 San Diego Padres 60 70 0.452 (23) 0.504 (9) 0.513 15 0.49
19 Anaheim Angels 66 62 0.52 (15) 0.492 (26) 0.451 25 0.488
20 Philadelphia Phillies 61 67 0.478 (19) 0.5 (12) 0.479 19 0.485
21 Kansas City Royals 56 71 0.451 (24) 0.499 (15) 0.484 18 0.478
22 Baltimore Orioles 70 57 0.46 (22) 0.488 (27) 0.474 20 0.474
23 Colorado Rockies 52 75 0.423 (25) 0.5 (13) 0.474 21 0.466
24 Minnesota Twins 52 76 0.41 (27) 0.496 (21) 0.466 22 0.457
25 New York Mets 59 69 0.464 (21) 0.497 (18) 0.41 27 0.457
26 Chicago Cubs 49 78 0.4 (28) 0.499 (14) 0.456 24 0.452
27 Miami Marlins 58 71 0.411 (26) 0.498 (16) 0.439 26 0.449
28 Toronto Blue Jays 57 70 0.47 (20) 0.488 (29) 0.367 30 0.442
29 Cleveland Indians 55 73 0.386 (29) 0.498 (17) 0.378 28 0.421
30 Houston Astros 40 88 0.338 (30) 0.502 (10) 0.369 29 0.403

If we went and projected records (using ranking for rest of season), your playoff seeds:

American League:

  1. Texas Rangers (94-68)
  2. New York Yankees (92-70)
  3. Chicago White Sox (90-72)
  4. Oakland Athletics (88-74)
  5. Detroit Tigers (87-75)

National League

  1. Washington Nationals (96-66)
  2. Cincinnati Reds (95-67)
  3. San Francisco Giants (88-74)
  4. Atlanta Braves (92-70)
  5. Saint Louis Cardinals (90-72)
  • Obviously, the Nationals’ magical season has continued unabated.  There is the Stephen Strasburg drama – and the Nationals decision is defensible, although I definitely disagree – but even without him their rotation is formidable.  That said, a rotation sans Strasburg and a fairly pedestrian lineup could spell a short stay in October.
  • On the other hand, the Cardinals are still in a strong chase for the wild card.  The Giants, Dodgers, Pirates are all still very much in the chase.  That said, unlike the Nationals, the Cardinals seem the total package.  Their league best pythagorean speaks to just how strong their peripherals are.  The wins have not showed up frequently enough, but this is a seriously dangerous outfit if they can find their way into the main draw.  The Braves-Cardinals wild card game might be the most dramatic single game of the entire NL playoffs.
  • The Dodgers as of now rate as an 86-76 team, but this is without considering the fascinating trade which netted them Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford.  Is there reason to think these changes will help them to close the gap with either the Giants or Cards?  Well, Adrian Gonzalez is going to have a huge impact – not just because he is a good ballplayer, but because he is replacing James Loney – who is providing middle infield level production at first freakin base.  Anytime you can bounce back from true replacement level to fringy elite, there can be an outsized impact in the wash.  As a Red Sox fan though, it is hard to see Josh Beckett bouncing back to more than 4/5 sort of starter though.  The pitches don’t work anymore and his own approach to pitching has never been “crafty”.
  • The deal guarantees nothing for Boston obviously.  Prospects are dudes who haven’t delivered in a major league capacity – that is the point.  The only major league body they have is James Loney, who is barely that.  That said, the prospects Boston did get were among the best in the Dodgers’ system – both De La Rosa and Webster have been graded very favorability as arms with significant promise.  That the Red Sox got actual prospects in a salary dump is a small miracle.  The Red Sox have some of their future back – which says good things about Ben Cherington as GM – if the bizarre, status obsessed ownership lets him do his thing.  But can these owners leave well enough alone and let winning move the needle?  Well, that’s the allotment of optimism I have for my day.
by

2012 MLB Update #3 – the All Star Break

Yeah, this is EXACTLY how I expected the teams to stack up heading into the second half of the season.  As always, rankings and formula are here:

Rank Team W L Pythag SOS Recent RecRank Total
1 Pittsburgh Pirates 49 37 0.558 (7) 0.502 (13) 0.646 1 0.569
2 Washington Nationals 49 34 0.59 (2) 0.504 (9) 0.594 3 0.563
3 Anaheim Angels 48 38 0.562 (6) 0.501 (14) 0.606 2 0.556
4 Chicago White Sox 47 38 0.583 (5) 0.497 (19) 0.564 5 0.548
5 Saint Louis Cardinals 46 40 0.589 (3) 0.509 (5) 0.538 8 0.545
6 New York Mets 46 40 0.526 (12) 0.5 (15) 0.59 4 0.539
7 Texas Rangers 52 34 0.597 (1) 0.504 (12) 0.505 17 0.535
8 New York Yankees 52 33 0.588 (4) 0.486 (28) 0.512 15 0.529
9 Boston Red Sox 43 43 0.548 (8) 0.496 (20) 0.524 10 0.522
10 Detroit Tigers 44 42 0.508 (15) 0.492 (24) 0.56 6 0.52
11 Oakland Athletics 43 43 0.505 (17) 0.494 (21) 0.557 7 0.518
12 Atlanta Braves 46 39 0.545 (9) 0.491 (26) 0.515 12 0.517
13 Milwaukee Brewers 40 45 0.488 (18) 0.519 (1) 0.537 9 0.515
14 Arizona Diamondbacks 42 43 0.514 (14) 0.511 (3) 0.518 11 0.514
15 Cincinnati Reds 47 39 0.538 (10) 0.5 (16) 0.497 18 0.511
16 Toronto Blue Jays 43 43 0.529 (11) 0.491 (25) 0.486 19 0.502
17 Cleveland Indians 44 41 0.464 (21) 0.493 (23) 0.514 13 0.49
18 Seattle Mariners 37 51 0.472 (20) 0.49 (27) 0.506 16 0.489
19 Tampa Bay Rays 45 41 0.506 (16) 0.485 (29) 0.463 23 0.484
20 San Francisco Giants 46 40 0.488 (19) 0.507 (7) 0.429 25 0.475
21 Kansas City Royals 37 47 0.444 (24) 0.498 (18) 0.475 21 0.472
22 San Diego Padres 34 53 0.391 (30) 0.51 (4) 0.512 14 0.471
23 Chicago Cubs 33 51 0.423 (26) 0.499 (17) 0.485 20 0.469
24 Miami Marlins 41 44 0.423 (25) 0.504 (11) 0.467 22 0.465
25 Los Angeles Dodgers 47 40 0.515 (13) 0.512 (2) 0.365 30 0.464
26 Philadelphia Phillies 36 50 0.454 (22) 0.509 (6) 0.411 26 0.458
27 Colorado Rockies 32 52 0.416 (27) 0.504 (10) 0.404 28 0.441
28 Minnesota Twins 36 49 0.392 (29) 0.493 (22) 0.436 24 0.44
29 Houston Astros 33 53 0.406 (28) 0.505 (8) 0.407 27 0.44
30 Baltimore Orioles 45 40 0.451 (23) 0.479 (30) 0.377 29 0.436

While somehow or another I do not expect the Pirates to keep churning out this level of performance – at the same time, the pitching behind James McDonald has been really good, and clearly Andrew McCutchen is having an MVP caliber season.  Even if they just go .500 the rest of the way, that is a 87-75, which puts them well within reach of the wild card.  Using the power rankings as a proxy win pct, they project even better.  Indeed, if we use the overall ranking to forecast projected record, the playoff seeds might look like this:

American League

  1. Rangers (93-69)
  2. Yankees (93-69)
  3. White Sox (89-73)
  4. Angels (90-72)
  5. Tigers (84-78)

As such, with the added wild card team, the race for the last playoff spot has thrown the AL into chaos – as there are a lot of teams with .500-ish projections.  Boson (83-79), Oakland (82-80), Toronto (81-81), Cleveland (82-80), Tampa (82-80), Baltimore (79-83) all project to maybe be around to to the final week.  So there is a ton of baseball to be played and a seeming guarantee that a meh team could win the world series.

The NL

  1. Nationals (93-69)
  2. Pirates (92-70)
  3. Diamondbacks (82-80)
  4. Cardinals (87-75)
  5. Mets (87-75)

The NL is a bit more top heavy I suppose, though the Braves (87), Reds (86), Brewers (80) and Giants/Dodgers (82) are around too.  What is interesting is the stark lack of the teams that make the system so (sniff!) unfair.  Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers all not represented (though a couple of those teams are on the fringes).  While I do not expect this to be a true small market World Series, the claim that baseball has to the best parity model of any sport is still very much in tow.

by

2012 MLB Update #2

Last time we did this was at the end of May – where the surprising start of the Los Angeles Dodgers had seemed to be lording over the league – of course after four straight shutout losses, and Matt Kemp’s prolonged absence – their hideous offense has seemed to catch up with them.  (Seriously, James Loney as a a first basemen for a team with any aspirations – .236/.303/.323).  Saint Louis has seemed to be the best in the NL – at least thinking about them entering the season, and it has largely stood up – although their close game record has been peculiar.   But as we hurtle towards the halfway point of the season, suddenly the cream is starting to rise:

Rank Team W L Pythag SOS Recent RecRank Total
1 Texas Rangers 49 29 0.629 (1) 0.501 (16) 0.579 5 0.569
2 Boston Red Sox 41 36 0.573 (6) 0.499 (19) 0.623 1 0.565
3 Anaheim Angels 43 34 0.578 (5) 0.498 (20) 0.616 2 0.564
4 Chicago White Sox 42 35 0.57 (7) 0.508 (6) 0.56 7 0.546
5 Washington Nationals 44 31 0.582 (3) 0.504 (12) 0.551 8 0.546
6 New York Mets 42 36 0.532 (11) 0.498 (21) 0.593 3 0.541
7 Saint Louis Cardinals 40 37 0.583 (2) 0.512 (3) 0.504 14 0.533
8 New York Yankees 46 30 0.581 (4) 0.487 (26) 0.526 11 0.531
9 Pittsburgh Pirates 41 35 0.505 (16) 0.504 (11) 0.584 4 0.531
10 Arizona Diamondbacks 39 37 0.533 (10) 0.506 (9) 0.546 9 0.528
11 Oakland Athletics 37 41 0.502 (17) 0.49 (24) 0.56 6 0.517
12 San Francisco Giants 44 34 0.526 (14) 0.511 (5) 0.504 15 0.514
13 Cincinnati Reds 42 35 0.527 (13) 0.504 (10) 0.506 13 0.512
14 Toronto Blue Jays 39 38 0.535 (8) 0.487 (27) 0.497 17 0.507
15 Milwaukee Brewers 34 42 0.471 (21) 0.519 (1) 0.503 16 0.498
16 Philadelphia Phillies 36 43 0.484 (18) 0.511 (4) 0.497 18 0.497
17 Tampa Bay Rays 41 36 0.508 (15) 0.483 (29) 0.495 19 0.495
18 Kansas City Royals 35 39 0.458 (23) 0.499 (18) 0.526 10 0.494
19 Detroit Tigers 37 40 0.481 (19) 0.492 (23) 0.508 12 0.494
20 Atlanta Braves 40 36 0.534 (9) 0.487 (28) 0.43 27 0.484
21 Los Angeles Dodgers 43 35 0.53 (12) 0.513 (2) 0.381 30 0.475
22 Seattle Mariners 34 46 0.467 (22) 0.488 (25) 0.44 24 0.465
23 Baltimore Orioles 42 34 0.476 (20) 0.473 (30) 0.445 23 0.464
24 Houston Astros 32 45 0.429 (26) 0.507 (7) 0.447 22 0.461
25 Cleveland Indians 38 38 0.433 (24) 0.499 (17) 0.438 26 0.457
26 Chicago Cubs 27 48 0.405 (27) 0.504 (13) 0.454 21 0.454
27 San Diego Padres 28 50 0.365 (30) 0.506 (8) 0.482 20 0.451
28 Colorado Rockies 29 46 0.429 (25) 0.504 (14) 0.394 29 0.442
29 Miami Marlins 36 40 0.404 (28) 0.501 (15) 0.4 28 0.435
30 Minnesota Twins 30 45 0.366 (29) 0.497 (22) 0.44 25 0.434

We have been waiting for the Rangers to really start to assert themselves. Indeed Texas and Anaheim on paper looked like the best teams in baseball entering the season – Anaheim with its terrific pitching and Texas with its overall balance.  I don’t buy Boston as the #2 team either, but they have been very good lately with a 12-7 record and the top run differential during that time.  Bobby Valentine is a weird, oily guy – and Terry Francona did a magnificent job in his time – but Bobby has done an outstanding job with a patchwork outfield and figuring out a bullpen which looked like a human powder keg.

Clearly – the paper tiger so far has been Baltimore, with a negative run differential but still a 42-34 record.  On the other hand, with the second wild card position – that is 42 wins they don’t have to get, so while the rankings project Baltimore to finish 82-80, 85-77 might be good enough to make the playoffs.  What is particularly notable this season is how close the entire field actually is.  You look at the rankings themselves – the difference between #4 and #10 works out to 2 wins over a 162 game slate.  Indeed, the rankings only see four 90 win teams right now (Rangers, Angels, Yankees, Nationals) let alone any 100 win team.  This season has been a particular display of parity and it will be interesting to see if this holds.

by

2012 MLB Power Rankings #1

Wow, the first baseball post of the year!  Frankly, I have not been following too too much.  With the respendent NBA and NHL playoffs, it has been easy to ignore.  Also, small sample sizes abound anyway.  It’s hard to make any real statement about your team before Memorial Day anyway.  For what it’s worth, we have decided to try a quantitative ranking this season.  The method is detailed boringly here.  But here is the rankings through today:

Rank Team W L Pythag SOS PythRecent SOSRecent RecRank
1 Los Angeles Dodgers 30 14 0.621 (3) 0.516 (6) 0.52 0.574 3
2 Texas Rangers 27 18 0.688 (1) 0.489 (24) 0.466 0.564 12
3 Toronto Blue Jays 24 21 0.588 (4) 0.499 (18) 0.511 0.551 4
4 Saint Louis Cardinals 25 20 0.65 (2) 0.511 (9) 0.507 0.549 18
5 San Francisco Giants 24 21 0.508 (15) 0.525 (2) 0.568 0.539 2
6 Cleveland Indians 26 18 0.503 (16) 0.502 (15) 0.478 0.537 1
7 Washington Nationals 26 18 0.562 (6) 0.513 (8) 0.508 0.528 13
8 Houston Astros 21 23 0.534 (9) 0.497 (21) 0.528 0.526 6
9 Atlanta Braves 26 20 0.576 (5) 0.509 (10) 0.47 0.525 15
10 Philadelphia Phillies 23 23 0.511 (14) 0.527 (1) 0.476 0.524 10
11 Chicago White Sox 23 22 0.529 (11) 0.504 (11) 0.528 0.521 11
12 Boston Red Sox 22 22 0.533 (10) 0.488 (25) 0.414 0.574 9
13 Anaheim Angels 21 25 0.494 (17) 0.518 (3) 0.537 0.574 7
14 Cincinnati Reds 25 19 0.524 (12) 0.492 (23) 0.503 0.574 8
15 Kansas City Royals 17 26 0.44 (22) 0.5 (17) 0.504 0.574 5
16 Tampa Bay Rays 27 18 0.537 (7) 0.475 (29) 0.383 0.574 19
17 Miami Marlins 24 21 0.483 (18) 0.518 (4) 0.505 0.492 21
18 Baltimore Orioles 28 17 0.535 (8) 0.475 (30) 0.447 0.491 23
19 Detroit Tigers 20 24 0.474 (20) 0.502 (16) 0.498 0.488 17
20 Seattle Mariners 21 26 0.478 (19) 0.487 (26) 0.448 0.487 14
21 Milwaukee Brewers 18 26 0.43 (25) 0.514 (7) 0.534 0.478 16
22 New York Yankees 23 21 0.518 (13) 0.494 (22) 0.457 0.47 30
23 Arizona Diamondbacks 20 25 0.464 (21) 0.503 (14) 0.421 0.469 25
24 Colorado Rockies 16 27 0.44 (23) 0.516 (5) 0.515 0.465 26
25 New York Mets 24 21 0.415 (26) 0.503 (13) 0.551 0.452 27
26 Oakland Athletics 22 23 0.439 (24) 0.497 (20) 0.498 0.451 29
27 San Diego Padres 17 29 0.392 (27) 0.498 (19) 0.512 0.45 24
28 Pittsburgh Pirates 20 24 0.383 (28) 0.486 (27) 0.573 0.444 22
29 Minnesota Twins 15 29 0.332 (30) 0.503 (12) 0.488 0.436 20
30 Chicago Cubs 15 29 0.373 (29) 0.483 (28) 0.531 0.426 28

Obviously it is hard – and probably silly – to dive too big into surprises. What I can say is that the ranked teams with good records tend to suffer from the scoring margin associated with a not so good team. Luck in close games is good for the standings – beats having to win the games again – but it is not something you can predict future success with. Also now with 40 games or so in the book, the last 25% of the schedule (the recent stats) are included – so how a team is playing now matters a bit more. In any case, from early evidence we can derive some overrated/underrated:

Overrated: (22) Yankees, (25) Mets.  Two above .500 teams who are playing like a far inferior side.  Somewhat expected with the Mets, but less so with the Yankees, but the pitching has not gotten better.

Underrated: (8) Astros, (10) Phillies.  Phillies makes sense – the pitching and past performance are worth it.  The Astros have played like a better team than their record.  This is particularly funny since on paper, this looked like the worst non-expansion team in many a moon.  Brad Mills obvious 1st quarter Manager of the Year in the NL.

by

2011 Major League Baseball Preview/Division Series Picks

Wow, that sucked.  At the same time, in the abstract, it was a terrific night of baseball.  Yes, the season is long.  It is hard to say one datapoint is more than any other.  But alone with soccer, baseball is the best vehicle in sports (and perhaps entertainment/art in general) to just create incomprehensible tension.  I was 8 years old again – it works every time, even in a season where I did not order the Major League Extra Innings Package and maintained some distance from the operation.  But when the Red Sox’ collapse was complete – the emptiness returns.  At the same time – there is nothing metaphysical about what happened.  The Red Sox did not lack “clubhouse unity” or “leadership”.  This is still the core of a team that came back from the dead to knock out Cleveland in 2007, and score one of the biggest comebacks of all time in 2008 against Tampa Bay (though they lost in 7).  The ticker is there – but the pitching was not.  Whether it be attrition or incompetence, a 7 ERA for the starters is simply impossible to overcome.  The good news is salvation lies within – the Boston market will want heads to roll because they are crazy.  However, there is nothing that a bout of health could not fix – and getting the depth back to 2004/2007 levels.  But there are 8 teams playing apparently.  So we break them down.

A quick ranking of the teams’ body of work:  A good place to start with the teams is to ignore the record and go to the run margin – a better predictor of future success and a better tool for measuring underlying performance.  Suppose we constructed an RPI formula using a teams pythagorean record, and the pythagorean record of its opponents and its opponents’ opponents.  You’d get a result like this (in order, number of expected wins):

  1. New York Yankees 94.38 expected wins, strength of schedule 81.68 wins (5th overall)
  2. Texas Rangers  92.98, SoS 81.31 (8th)
  3. Philadelphia Phillies 92.94, SoS 80.68 (10th)
  4. Tampa Bay Rays 89.89, SoS 81.86 (4th)
  5. Boston Red Sox 88.46, 82.14 (2nd)
  6. Milwaukee Brewers 85.44, 80.03 (17th)
  7. Saint Louis Cardinals 85.17, 79.57 (25th)
  8. Arizona Diamondbacks 84.47, 79.93 (21st)
  9. Detroit Tigers 84.03, 78.87 (28th)
  10. Anaheim Angels 83.93, 80.83 (9th)
  11. Atlanta Braves 83.16, 80.64 (11th)
  12. Cincinnati Reds 81.22, 79.78 (22nd)
  13. San Francisco Giants 81.17, 80.19 (14th)
  14. Los Angeles Dodgers 81.03, 78.72 (29th)
  15. Toronto Blue Jays 80.40, 82.59 (1st)
  16. San Diego Padres 79.43, 80.02 (18th)
  17. Washington Nationals 79.07, 80.56 (12th)
  18. Colorado Rockies 78.47, 80.13 (15th)
  19. Oakland Athletics 77.84, 79.43 (26th)
  20. New York Mets 77.26, 80.01 (19th)
  21. Chicago White Sox 76.88, 78.94 (27th)
  22. Florida Marlins 76.59, 81.56 (6th)
  23. Cleveland Indians 76.11, 77.4 (30th)
  24. Seattle Mariners 74.83, 82.05 (3rd)
  25. Chicago Cubs 74.66, 79.98 (20th)
  26. Pittsburgh Pirates 74.07, 79.57 (24th)
  27. Kansas City Royals 73.00, 79.60 (23rd)
  28. Baltimore Orioles 71.90, 81.48 (7th)
  29. Houston Astros 70.53, 80.5 (13th)
  30. Minnesota Twins 70.18, 80.07 (16th)

So the playoff matchups: #1 Yankees vs #9 Tigers, #2 Rangers vs #4 Rays, #3 Phillies vs #7 Cardinals and #6 Brewers vs #8 Diamondbacks.   A few thoughts about each:

Yankees-Tigers: The Tigers run differential looks impressive.  Their raw pythagorean record is actually 89.2 expected wins, but gets knocked down a lot for their really bad division that they run roughshod through.  The Yankees fundamentals are more persistent.  As far as the games themselves, the Tigers have a small edge when Verlander starts.  It is either a dead heat with CC Sabbathia or a slight edge at best.  The Yankees could crush every other schmoe Detroit puts out there.  Detroit needs to win Verlander’s starts to have a shot – this feels like too much to overcome with a hoss like CC.  Yankees in 3.

Rangers-Rays: This was a knee knocker last year, and no reason it should be different this time around.  Tampa Bay is the league’s best run prevention team, finishing 3rd in runs scored but playing in the tougher league with a much harder schedule than the teams that outpaced them (PHI and SF).  Their offense is merely adequate, and has been streaky at times – though Longoria has caught fire.  Texas is sort of the opposite.  Runs are no problemo here – and their run prevention was 9th in the league against the 2nd hardest schedule – so it certainly is more than adequate.  The starting matchups are even throughout.  Really at this point I think Texas can score a bit more easily.  Rangers in 5

Phillies-Cardinals: The amazing surge the Cardinals used to get in was amazing.  The Braves stumbled down the stretch but unlike the Red Sox collapse this was more a matter of the Cardinals “catching” them.  The Cardinals can hit all right, though they also played in a very poor division.  And Philadelphia is another kettle of fish pitchingwise.  I am not sure this is something the Cardinals would wish.  Maybe they win Carpenter’s start – but Phillies are too much.  Phillies in 4

Brewers-Diamondbacks: Do you believe in Ian Kennedy?  Neither do I.  Not when facing the rotation in the National League that can give the Phillies a run for their money.  Milwaukee finished strong on the strength of an unsustainably good home record.  So is their lofty spot justified?  God their division was weak!  This is all new for these Diamondbacks – and they are built to be back here several times in the future.  That said, the Brewers starting pitching is something I like better here.  Arizona allowed slightly more runs, but their pitching strength is tied in their bullpen.  I am not sure they can match what the Brewers have in the rotation.  Greinke in particular can carry a team.  Brewers in 5

 

by

League Championship Series Previews

Let’s cut to the chase … two potentially great LCS matchups on the table … all four teams have good short series winning ballclubs.

Yankees vs Rangers:

Your ALCS matchup.  The key to the series is the secondary starting pitching, especially now that Texas had to use Cliff Lee to win Game 5 against Tampa.  That said, the Friday ALCS start is of great help as Lee will be ready on full rest for Game 3, setting up a Game 3/7 possibility.  Game 1 becomes a big key with the Yankees running Sabbathia against CJ Wilson presumably for Texas.  The Yankees almost HAVE to claim CC’s starts as he is far and away their most reliable starter to pick off good hitting, which the Rangers are not lacking.  The Yankees are the best baserunner generating team in the league, and can mash any sort of mediocre pitching.  The Rangers back end starters are in trouble here – which makes CJ Wilson’s work all the more important.  Cliff Lee cannot be used more than twice, and the Rangers have to force the second time to occur – this makes it an uphill battle for them.  So in the battle of the team of Nixon vs the team of George Bush Jr, Yankees in 6 is the pick.

Phillies vs Giants

Look at all that starting pitching!  Halladay vs Lincecum, Oswalt vs Cain, Hamels vs Sanchez.  All of these matchups are really restaurant quality – and Halladay is so pitch efficient that the Phillies might be able to bypass their #4 starter, which is not a strength.  Runs will be hard to come by, and so we are left with focusing on offenses.  On that front, there is no comparison.  The Phillies offense lacks the greatness of the last couple of years, but their depth is much better than the Giants, whose best hitter pre-Buster Posey this season was a journeyman fungible corner like Aubrey Huff.  Howard might not have had a great season, but he is a threat.  Utley is terrific, Werth has had a strong season.  It is hard to see how the Giants score enough.  Phillies in 5

by

MLB Division Series Previews

After the marathon, now comes the four week sprint to the finish line.  The baseball playoffs are the most compelling of sporting events – tension in every pitch, and really the exact opposite set of skills being tested.  If the regular season is about run scoring and organizational depth, the postseason is about everyday lineup and the ability to prevent baserunners.  So with that, the previews of each of the four Division Series matchups.

Yankees vs Twins

On paper, the Yankees are the best team in the American League.  The lineup is unmatched and the bullpen is very strong.  The defense is not as bad as it has been in year’s past with Brett Gardner representing a huge upgrade over what they were wheeling out in the past.  That said, the rotation has sagged, with AJ Burnett turning from a coach back into a pumpkin, and Andy Pettitte’s effectiveness being not guaranteed.  The Twins were right there for best record until the last weekend, but when we look at the sort of components you need to win short series baseball, there is not a ton there:

  • Lineups: Puh-leeze.  The Yankees smashed other pitchers into oblivion all season, despite Alex Rodriguez fading to merely very good, and Derek Jeter slipping to somewhat above average.  Robinson Cano is a legitimate MVP candidate, and they get power out of so many positions.  The Twins get on base, but without Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer is the only scary hitter they have – although Jim Thome has had a nice wayback machine season. (Edge: Yankees)
  • Bullpen: Both have been good down the stretch, but the Yankees miss more bats.  The less contact at this time of year, the better. (Edge: Yankees)
  • Defense: Both solid here.  Twins always make it a priority, though Yanks might be better in the edges.  If we use Fangraphs runs saved, Twins are 3rd, the Yankees are 10th in the AL.  For UZR, Twins are 2nd, Yanks are 5th.  (Edge: Twins)
  • Rotation:  Yanks have more upside, though both teams only have one reliable starter.  Sabbathia must be a horse for the Yankees to make their dreams come true.  Liriano is an ace, though not sure he has the durability needed here. (Edge: Yankees)
  • Manager: Both are obsessed with smallball, and Girardi managed the Yankees out of basically 3 of their 4 losses in the postseason last year.  Gardenhire is less inclined to screw things up.  (Edge: Twins)

The Twins last year were the worst team ever to make the postseason.  This is a much better squad.  But for short series baseball, they are not the Yankees equal, even with the Yankees being worse than a year ago.  Yankees in 4

Rays vs Rangers

This is a fascinating matchup of youth and upside.  Two great farm systems bearing all their fruit – really this is as wide open an AL playoff as there has been in quite some time.  The Rays made the World Series in 2008, so we know their short series credentials are strong.  The Rangers less so, though this is far more dangerous than the Gonzalez-Pudge-Rick Helling teams they ran out in the mid to late 90s.

  • Lineup: The Rays lack star power.  Longoria is their one true stud, as Zobrist has not been as good as in year’s previous.  But they take excellent at-bats up and down the lineup.  They are a good on base team.  The Rangers are a better on base team, but in a better hitters park.  But Josh Hamilton has been magnificent and Nelson Cruz has shown a lot of power.  (Edge: Rangers, but not by much)
  • Rotation: David Price and Cliff Lee are both Cy Young caliber guys.  But behind them, stuff changes.  CJ Wilson has the stuff of an excellent #2, but the dropoff is solid.  The Rays with James Shields, Matt Garza, Wade Davis have more options, though Cliff Lee could pitch in short rest. (Edge: Rays)
  • Bullpen: Rafael Soriano and Neftali Feliz are great closers.  Both bullpens have lefty and righty options and good setup guys.  The Rays are a little better here .  (Edge: Rays, slightly)
  • Defense: The Rays are a terrific run preventing defense. (5th in Runs Saved, 3rd in UZR)  The Rangers are more middle of the pack (9th and 7th respectively)  The Rays rode their defense to a pennant in 2008 – we know they can do this. (Edge: Rays)
  • Managing: Maddon is solid, respects OBP, and has shown sound tactics all season.  He hurt them in 2008, but seems smarter.  Washington has been with the Rangers for years.  He is certainly not bad.  (Edge: Rays)

A Rangers win is not a surprise here.  They are so talented and young in so many places.  They could rule the West for years.  But the Rays are the best team in baseball.  Does that mean they escape the murderous AL?  I don’t know – because there are tough opponents like this.  Rays in 5

Braves vs Giants

The Braves have stumbled to the finish line under the weight of serious injury problems.  They are a terrific on-base team though it has not translated to runs – though Jason Heyward is going to be a superstar.  The pitching has been solid all year.  Fortunately they are facing another offensively starved team led by a young uberstar (Buster Posey) in the Giants.  Both of these teams should be cannon fodder for the team below, but this is the most fascinating of the first round series.

Offense: Both stink.  The Braves have so many guys hurt, and the Giants have just been anemic all season.  That said, the Giants play in such a pitcher’s park that will explain some of their horror show, and with revived Pat Burrell, Aubrey Huff and Posey, they have a bit more to offer personnel wise than the Braves who are Heyward, Brian McCann and hope.  (Edge: Giants, slightly)

Defense: Both good.  3rd and 4th in runs saved.  That said, the Giants UZR is much better – indicating they get to more balls possibly.  This is somewhat speculative but the Giants show a bit more. (Edge: Giants)

Rotation: Both strong.  Lincecum and Cain are studs and Jonathan Sanchez and Baumgartner are all good for the Giants.  The Braves had to fight to the last day and use Tim Hudson, their ace, to get in.  This means that Derek Lowe needs to be able to give 2 starts to win this series.  For that reaso alone the Giants have the edge.

Bullpen: Both excellent.   Both managers have a lot of weapons at their disposal, the Braves being the bigger surprise with Billy Wagner having a wayback machine season.  (Push)

Manager: Cox is one of the best ever.  Bochy is not.  But he’s not Dusty Baker either.  (Edge: Braves)

Braves got a gift matchup, and they need it given how badly they limped to the finish line.  The Giants have the sort of team that can win a short series with that nasty top 3 in the rotation and solid defense.  The Braves on-base talent though could be enough to squeeze this series out.  This is a serially weird series to call, but I have to pick something.  Giants in 5

Phillies vs Reds

Here we are, your World Series favorite.  The Phillies with Oswalt, have such a short series devastating rotation and a lineup comparable to a good AL team that it’s hard to not see them get to their 3rd world series in a row, and for once a rotation edge on any AL team.  The Reds are young and gifted though, but this is the wrong year to get this matchup.

Lineup: The Phillies have fewer holes than the average NL lineup.  When healthy Chase Utley is the best player in baseball, and Ryan Howard is a good hitting 1B albeit split heavy and overrated.  Werth has had a terrific contract year.  This is not as strong a lineup as they have had in the past but certainly good.  The Reds are younger and Joey Votto is an MVP candidate.  Jay Bruce is a serious upside guy also and Scott Rolen has had a nice wayback season.   Both teams enjoy hitting parks.  (Edge: Reds)

Rotation: The Reds have been better than one’d expect, with Cueto having a strong year.  But the Phillies run out two potential #1 types in Halladay and Hamels with Oswalt being a tick below but damn good.  Really this top 3 might make them the favorites to win it all, period this year. (Edge: Phillies big)

Bullpen: Neither team is especially good.  The difference is the rotations and usage patterns of each manager, which shift the balance here.  In a vacuum, it’s a push, but games are played in TV sets, not in vacuums.  (Edge: Phillies)

Defense:  The Reds have been strong, 4th in the NL is UZR and Runs Saved.  The Phillies are middle of the pack in both.  The outfield defense in particular with Ibanez and Victorino seems meh.  The Reds can field the ball, if the pitchers can keep it in the park.  (Edge: Reds)

Manager: Charlie Manuel is old school while Dusty Baker might have run his staff into the ground.  Somehow, the Reds got in despite it.  Manuel will trust his lineup and not overmanage.  Dusty of course, well … we know.  (Edge: Phillies)

The Phillies are the heavy favorite in the NL and could very well win the whole damn thing with that pitching.  They have short series muscle to the teeth.  The Reds are young and this series has some slugfest potential – some – but the Phils might end up doing most of the slugging with that Reds staff. Phillies in 3

by

A Perfectly Bad Break

I feel bad for everybody – like Armando Galarraga, who was denied a perfect game by what turns out to have been a missed call by an ump.  In the same vein, when I see a stupid characterization like Jerry Crasnick offered for Jim Joyce – I feel bad for Joyce too.  Consider (from the Crasnick piece):

After umpire Bill Hohn displayed some egregiously bad judgment in ejecting Houston pitcherRoy Oswalt in the third inning of a game with Washington last week, Major League Baseball vice president Bob Watson made it clear that Hohn could expect to be addressed in a “very stern” way.

The commissioner’s office might have to invent a new adjective for the conversation that Mike Port, MLB’s vice president of umpiring, is about to have with Jim Joyce.

It’s not an exaggeration to say that two themes have predominated in the first two months of the baseball season — perfect games and questionable umpiring. For one mind-blowing, Twilight Zone-esque sequence of events Wednesday night, those dual storylines coalesced in the Comerica Park infield.

Wow, someone has the fever!  Did he Joyce miss the call?  Of course he did.  Watching it in real time, it was a nonobvious play – but the Cleveland batter was out by a good enough margin to not miss the call.  But he missed the call – and he was the first to admit it.  He has shown nothing but class - compared to the disgraceful Joe West.  So somehow the outrage here is pretty misplaced.  I mean, calls are missed all the time, and this one was an inconsequential call in a game the Tigers were going to cruise in.  There have been 20 perfect games in history, but you’d be hard pressed to name but a couple.

I feel bad that someone got screwed out of a perfect game by fate, but a whole hog investigation is stupid.  Considering that I lived through the 2002 Western Conference Finals,  and Eric Gregg against the Braves among others, this is pretty small potatoes.  In real time, this was not an easy call – I’m sorry it just wasn’t.  And this was not a game critical call, let alone a playoff tilting one.  Fortunately Bud did the right thing.

by

Another Stupid McGwire Quip

Well, it had to happen.  More old timers piling on the so called “steroid era”.  Here is Ferguson Jenkins’ particular bit of erudition:

The Hall of Fame ace sent an open letter to The Associated Press this week, telling the former home-run king: “You have not even begun to apologize to those you have harmed.”

“How many pitchers do you think he ended their careers by hitting numbers of home runs of them?” Jenkins said during a telephone interview Wednesday.

Ummmm … ok … well, let’s see here … first of all, it’s not like pitchers did not use steroids, right?  Somehow I cannot think they are hapless victims – or complete morons depending on your point of view – the pitchers who used were in the same proportion as hitters, unless proven otherwise.

Also – and this is opening a can of worms of sorts – why are we under the impression that only these guys did steroids?  Let’s draw the start of the Steroid Era as the strike of 1994 for the sake of argument, so Matt Williams’ run at Maris stays in play.  As far as I can tell, steroids had been around for an awfully long time before that, in some form or another.  Is it possible that old timers were also using?  After all, the performance pressures were the same – possibly moreso before free agency where one employer controlled your ability to make a living in the sport you love?  Also – nobody has really offered conclusive evidence that steroids created a new distribution in terms of results among players … we anecdotally remember the absurdly great seasons (which can be caused by expansion) but it is not like crappy players didn’t take them at the same rate and still stayed crappy.  If 70% of players used, then 70% would have outpaced 30% distinctly, but none of that causation has been shown, let alone investigated by the Verducci-Olney-Heyman set.

McGwire is no hero – he broke the law, and most likely engaged in seedy, crack-head like things – and I am not calling any of the steroid guys good.  But this is an era of great mystery, and a drug environment that we know almost nothing about, aside from the fact that it happened for a period of time.  We don’t know the causation – what the causation was – and who actually used both now and in the past.  The old timers piling on current players or protecting their reputations, and their name in the sun – should not obscure that.  I guess this makes me the asshole, huh?

by

McGwire and Dereliction in Media

Well, by now, we know what news Mark McGwire admitted he had used steroids in the past.  The admission was tearful, with his voice cracking, and as far as I could tell, pretty sincere.  It was the admission he withheld in his testimony at Congress’ shameful dog and pony show on steroids in 2005.  What has been fascinating about the story has been the cacaphony of self righteous, mean spirited, and frankly, sensationalistic reporting about him and the whole so-called “steroid era” in baseball.  Writers have used it as reason to make up their own rules about the Hall of Fame, to grandstand about cheaters and braying about how the game is struggling (since there is SO MUCH evidence of that), and to score some points opening up a newscast as the repugnant Brian Williams repugnantly did on NBC last night. (glad his priorities are straight)

The reporting from the media shows some of the dereliction that has invaded national mainstream press work across the board, whether it be being court stenographers for the White House or reporting on a book comprised almost entirely of hearsay.  Writers like Buster Olney and Tom Verducci have made a cottage industry out of reporting on steroids, let alone TJ Quinn.  Now I am not saying steroids are good – indeed they are illegal, and McGwire broke the law.  But focusing entirely on the “cheating” aspect, the media has taken the effect on homeruns entirely as an article of faith.  They saw the homeruns, it must have been causal.  They have had more fun with catching steroid users than they have had with actually covering baseball.  Indeed look at the reaction on the sports-sphere to his confession, whether it be Olney, Verducci, Killion, Stark.  Indeed, consider the language in Ann Killion’s piece:

McGwire never got the memo that the American public understands steroids. That we’ve been beat over the head with facts and evidence for the past seven years. That we know what they do.

Make you stronger. Hit a ball farther. Pad your statistics.

What McGwire said on Monday in his carefully orchestrated, weepy coast-to-coast confessional sounds like something he scripted back in 2001 when he retired. An excuse that the public might have swallowed a decade ago. But not now.

It’s a little stunning that after all these years of waiting, after all these years he had to prepare for this moment that McGwire — and his chief apologist,Tony La Russa, — botched the admission.

Oh, the firebreathing, and dishonesty.  Could McGwire have been more forthcoming?  Maybe.  But honestly, the media wants blood – tears aren’t enough.  The media seem to just want to pillory him regardless.  How much time has actually been spent on steroids themselves in the context of his accomplishments, aside from the basic non sequitur “steroids created McGwire”?  You would think that the evidence of the effect of steroids in baseball is incontrovertible, but clearly, it is not.  Where is that honest discussion in the context of the Hall of Fame, for instance?  Is this era really any less shameful, than oh I don’t know, the world before integration?  McGwire is no hero – but the coverage of steroids in baseball is exponentially more repugnant.