Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #6

With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (2) Heat (25-7)
  2. (4) Thunder (25-7)
  3. (1) Bulls (26-8)
  4. (3) Sixers (20-12)
  5. (5) Spurs (23-9)
  6. (9) Mavericks (23-12)
  7. (6) Hawks (19-13)
  8. (8) Nuggets (18-15)
  9. (7) Blazers (17-16)
  10. (10) Lakers (19-13)
  11. (15) Magic (21-12)
  12. (11) Clippers (19-11) Celtics (15-12)
  13. (13) Rockets (19-14)
  14. (16) Grizzlies (18-15)
  15. (14) Pacers (19-12)
  16. (12) Celtics (15-16)
  17. (17) Timberwolves (16-17)
  18. (19) Warriors (12-17) Jazz (14-13)
  19. (18) Jazz (15-16)
  20. (20) Bucks (13-20)
  21. (22) Suns (14-19)
  22. (21) Knicks (16-17)
  23. (24) Hornets (7-24)
  24. (23) Cavaliers (12-17)
  25. (25) Raptors (9-23)
  26. (26) Kings (10-21)
  27. (28) Nets (10-24)
  28. (29) Pistons (11-22)
  29. (27) Wizards (7-25)
  30. (30) Bobcats (4-27)

Some notes:

  1. Who is that masked man at #4.  As Jim Ross might say, MY GAWD!!!  IT’S THE SAN ANTONIO SPURS!!  Somehow or another, they are a factor again – rising all the way up to the lofty #5 position.  Of course this should not be surprising us anymore – the Spurs decade long run of contendorhood is pretty amazing.  What is more interesting though is how stereotypes tend to work.  If you dismiss the Spurs – or just don’t think of them – you might lean on what you remember from 2003 and 2007 as to who they are – withering defense and Tim Duncan.  However, this team – assembling so many wins against a good schedule – is actually not a good defensive team.  It is weird to say that the Spurs are an offensive team – and certainly their below average pace hides the explosiveness – but this is a team that wins by scoring (6th on offense).  In particular, they win because they can shoot – 4th in total FG%, 3rd best three point percentage while making the 5th most (per possession) – it carries them to the 5th best true shooting team in the league.  The shot generation is average – they don’t recover many of their few misses, but they hardly turn it over so they are getting a solid number of looks.  On defense, they actually resemble the 2007 Suns more than the 2007 Spurs, where their real strength is not fouling (tops in the league), allowing the 8th fewest makes from 3 and 2nd in the league in defensive rebounding.  They force a lot of 2 point shots and recover misses – which allows their defense to be meh (instead of bad).
  2. And while we get a view of the top with the Spurs, let’s go down low and appreciate the awesome level of badness that is the Charlotte Bobcats.  At 4-27, the record is pristine to be sure.  They are on pace to win more than the 9-73 rate the 1973 Sixers team did.  Indeed, I expect some winning to pick up as Gerald Henderson returns and the other teams start to care less and focus on playoff positioning.  This is all crap we know.  In the same vein, the Bobcats are currently rating a staggering -10.7 points.  Let’s put it this way, the Wizards – also terrible at 7-25, would be nearly 5 point favorites – it’s really that bad.  The Bobcats lack of talent is obvious – seriously if Kemba Walker is your beacon of hope (Walker is a nice prospect – but a Vinnie Johnson upside) what can you say?  Obviously the Bobcats are the worst offense in the league, alternating poor shooting with poor offensive rebounding.  They are the worst at making shots they get, and 23rd in getting shots of any kind.  What is a surprise to a degree though is defensively they are also pretty terrible, allowing the 28th best FG% overall and being 2nd from the bottom in forcing turnovers along with a desultory 24th in rebounding.  Really the team is just bad in an admirably consistent way.  Even the Timberwolves of last year for instance, estimably awful, but capable at recovering misses.  Charlotte can’t even do that right.

College Basketball Pairwise NCAA Forecast #12

If the season ended today -  (rankings here :)

The Field of 68.  Easier to present it this way – ignoring procedural seeding rules.  Conference champs (leaders, wins first tiebreak, pairwise ranking second) in caps.  This week, after looking at the criteria – it felt like we did need at least one “How did they play” component, so we’ve added the Pomeroy Ranking to the composition of the rankings.  Technically this is still only 20% of the crtieria, and at best 50% (since every team can be compared on both RPI and KenPom at the least).  So yes, this is not consistent with the frameworks earlier, but hopefully it is a better one in what the committee should be looking at:

BOSTON

  • (1) SYRACUSE vs (16) LONG ISLAND/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
  • (8) ORAL ROBERTS vs (9) Iowa State
  • (4) Saint Louis vs (13) Oregon
  • (5) Indiana vs (12) Purdue
  • (2) MISSOURI vs (15) DAVIDSON
  • (7) UNLV vs (10) BYU
  • (3) WICHITA STATE vs (14) AKRON
  • (6) SOUTHERN MISS vs (11) SAINT MARY’S

PHOENIX

  • (1) MICHIGAN STATE vs (16) WEBER STATE
  • (8) Virginia vs (9) Connecticut
  • (4) Georgetown vs (13) NEVADA
  • (5) Wisconsin vs (12) IONA
  • (2) North Carolina vs (15) VALPARAISO
  • (7) Memphis vs (10) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
  • (3) Baylor vs (14) DREXEL
  • (6) Louisville vs (11) San Diego State

ATLANTA

  • (1) KENTUCKY vs (16) VERMONT/SAVANNAH STATE
  • (8) Alabama vs (9) Notre Dame
  • (4) Florida vs (13) Miami-FL/Arizona
  • (5) Florida State vs (12) LONG BEACH STATE
  • (2) Kansas vs (15) TEXAS-ARLINGTON
  • (7) Creighton vs (10) Kansas State
  • (3) Marquette vs (14) BELMONT
  • (6) CALIFORNIA vs (11) Texas

SAINT LOUIS

  • (1) DUKE vs (16) NC-ASHEVILLE
  • (8) Vanderbilt vs (9) West Virginia
  • (4) TEMPLE vs (13) Cincinnati/Washington
  • (5) Michigan vs (12) VCU
  • (2) Ohio State vs (15) BUCKNELL
  • (7) HARVARD vs (10) Seton Hall
  • (3) NEW MEXICO vs (14) MURRAY STATE
  • (6) Gonzaga vs (11) Northwestern

First four out: Xavier, South Dakota State, Saint Joseph’s, Massachusetts

Next four out: NC State, LSU, South Florida, Colorado State

Multi-Bid Leagues

  • Pac 12 (4)
  • Big East (9)
  • ACC (5)
  • Big Ten (7)
  • Mountain West (3)
  • Big 12 (6)
  • West Coast (3)
  • SEC (4)
  • Conference USA (2)
  • Missouri Valley (2)
  • Atlantic 10 (2)

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #5

With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (1) Bulls (23-7)
  2. (3) Heat (22-7)
  3. (2) Sixers (20-9)
  4. (4) Thunder (21-6)
  5. (8) Spurs (19-9)
  6. (6) Hawks (18-10)
  7. (5) Blazers (15-13)
  8. (7) Nuggets (16-12)
  9. (13) Mavericks (18-11)
  10. (9) Lakers (16-12)
  11. (11) Clippers (17-9)
  12. (10) Celtics (15-12)
  13. (14) Rockets (16-12)
  14. (12) Pacers (17-10)
  15. (17) Magic (18-11)
  16. (15) Grizzlies (14-14)
  17. (16) Timberwolves (13-16)
  18. (18) Jazz (14-13)
  19. (21) Warriors (11-14)
  20. (19) Bucks (12-16)
  21. (22) Knicks (13-15)
  22. (20) Suns (12-16)
  23. (24) Cavaliers (10-16)
  24. (23) Hornets (5-23)
  25. (25) Raptors (9-20)
  26. (26) Kings (10-17)
  27. (28) Wizards (6-22)
  28. (27) Nets (8-21)
  29. (29) Pistons (8-21)
  30. (30) Bobcats (3-25)

Some notes:

  1. We start with a trip to Oakland and the league’s most Quixotic fans – Warriors fans.  For anybody who watched their shocking upset of the Mavericks in 2007, the ability of the fans to lift a team is palpable there – it sounded like the old Chicago Stadium, and that’s saying something.  Alas, that upset has been the extent of the highlights on the court.  Indeed the last few years we have had bad teams, but entertaining ones that could light up the scoreboard.  With Mark Jackson taking over as coach, there was a commitment to a more defense, championship timber club.  What is interesting though is that the defensive culture in Golden State is still as lax as ever – while the offense is actually much better.  The numbers are a bit muted as these Warriors are middle of the road in terms of pace – but this is the most efficient offense (relative to the league) Golden State has had recently.  What is particularly interesting comparing side by side is how little things have changed.  They still shoot the three both very well and very frequently.  They still don’t get to the line hardly at all – and they are a pretty shaky rebounding team (and indeed substantially worse offensively).  However – they take care of the ball a bit better and are shooting their 2-pointers a lot better, enough to be 4th in the league in FG%.  This is also though a harbinger of rough times maybe – 2 pt FG% is pretty fickle, and one thinks there might be some regression coming.  Scanning the personnel, it is not like there is a huge change in the shape of the offense.  The defense as mentioned before is as bad as ever – and they are still a horrendous defensive rebounding side, and are near the bottom in sending opponents to the line.  Jackson has the team gambling less defensively – but it has not shown in the final results.  The Warriors have a ways to go for the positive changes in ownership to reflect in the product.
  2. Checking in at 18-11, and starting to move up the ladder are the Magic.  Of course 2 weeks ago, we left them with a disastrous week, featuring a 56 point outing at Boston and blown 27 point lead hosting Boston (yay Boston).  Since then though the Magic have perked up.  Really, we always hear about the psychodrama surrounding Dwight Howard – but possibly he has found some contentment (or resignation) in the current situation.  Despite the Magic’s offensive issues a couple of weeks back, where they had been struggling was on the defensive end of the floor.  Last year the Magic were 3rd in the league defensively despite having very little defensive muscle besides Howard.  Earlier in the year the team had been scuffling, but we see them up to 12th now.  The Magic in the past have focused on defending without fouling (not gambling) and superior rebounding.  This year, the rebounding has been there but the attention to detail in defense has not – but it has improved.  Magic up to a reasonable 11th in FG%, and so up their fortunes have come with it.
  3. This week’s edition would be incomplete without noting the jump the Knicks have made.  I have no real metric argument here, just a chance to rant a bit on Jeremy Lin.  The Knicks themselves are still a shaky offensive team with a surprisingly good defense considering D’Antoni’s reputation (2nd in the league in forced turnovers, 7th in defensive rebounding – they just don’t give up a ton of looks at the basket which makes up for their meh FG%).  But Lin of course has had the best first 4 starts in league history.  You have to be realistic of course – he is not this good, very few players are.  That said, he is 6’3″ 200 lbs – basically Chauncey Billups’ size.  He has a lot of steals, rebounds, gets to the line a lot.  Unlike most small school kids, he is an elite athlete.  He needs to shoot better, but that you can improve.  Lin is a rotation caliber PG right now, and the Knicks have none of those – and there is no reason he cannot be a solid starter for a long time.
  4. The big move up this week has been Dallas.  At 18-11, it is amazing to see Rick Carlisle cobble together this start despite the issues they had with conditioning and injuries.  More amazing is how despite losing Tyson Chandler, the Mavericks have remade themselves into a defensive juggernaut.  They are 18-11 against a solid schedule despite being 20th in offense (still not getting to the line, still not getting second shots, but now missing the shots they DO take).  Instead the historically underwhelming (or undervalued) Mavs D is carrying them this year.  Yeah Odom has sucked on offense, but he is a very useful defender.  So is Vince Carter despite his reputation, and Brendan Haywood has successfully impersonated a competent C this year.  All that adds up to a team that is 3rd in FG defense and 5th in forcing turnovers.  The Mavs are top 10 in TS% and shot prevention – and that has allowed them to survive themselves.  Given the reputations and past performances of their top guys on offense – this is nothing but good news for the long term.

College Basketball Pairwise NCAA Forecast #11

If the season ended today -  (rankings here :)

The Field of 68.  Easier to present it this way – ignoring procedural seeding rules.  Conference champs (leaders, wins first tiebreak, pairwise ranking second) in caps:

BOSTON

  • (1) SYRACUSE v (16) NORFOLK STATE/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
  • (8) Memphis vs (9) Seton Hall
  • (4) Temple vs (13) West Virginia
  • (5) Creighton vs (12) Arkansas
  • (2) Baylor vs (15) BUCKNELL
  • (7) Florida State vs (10) NC State
  • (3) Marquette vs (14) DAVIDSON
  • (6) SAINT MARY’S vs (11) Connecticut

PHOENIX

  • (1) MISSOURI vs (16) VALPARAISO
  • (8) San Diego State vs (9) Iowa State
  • (4) Gonzaga vs (13) MURRAY STATE
  • (5) Michigan vs (12) Minnesota
  • (2) North Carolina vs (15) LONG ISLAND
  • (7) Vanderbilt vs (10) HARVARD
  • (3) Louisville vs (14) LONG BEACH STATE
  • (6) Wisconsin vs (11) Oregon

ATLANTA

  • (1) KENTUCKY vs (16) UNC-ASHEVILLE/STONY BROOK
  • (8) CALIFORNIA vs (9) Alabama
  • (4) UNLV vs (13) Mississippi/Arizona
  • (5) SOUTHERN MISS vs (12) NEVADA
  • (2) Kansas vs (15) WEBER STATE
  • (7) Virginia vs (10) IONA
  • (3) Michigan State vs (14) AKRON
  • (6) Saint Louis vs (11) Notre Dame

SAINT LOUIS

  • (1) DUKE vs (16) MERCER
  • (8) New Mexico vs (9) Mississippi State
  • (4) WICHITA STATE vs (13) Washington/Northern Iowa
  • (5) Indiana vs (12) Kansas State
  • (2) OHIO STATE vs (15) TEXAS-ARLINGTON
  • (7) ORAL ROBERTS vs (10) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
  • (3) Georgetown vs (14) VCU
  • (6) Florida vs (11) Brigham Young

First four out: Miami-FL, Xavier, Illinois, Massachusetts

Next four out: Northwestern, Saint Joseph’s, Purdue, Texas

Multi-Bid Leagues

  • Pac 12 (4)
  • Missouri Valley (3)
  • SEC (7)
  • Big East (8)
  • Big 12 (5)
  • Big Ten (6)
  • West Coast (3)
  • ACC (5)
  • Conference USA (2)
  • Mountain West (3)
  • Atlantic 10 (2)

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #4

With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (3) Bulls (21-6)
  2. (2) Sixers (18-7)
  3. (1) Heat (18-6)
  4. (6) Thunder (19-5)
  5. (8) Blazers (14-11)
  6. (4) Hawks (16-9)
  7. (5) Nuggets (15-10)
  8. (9) Spurs (17-9)
  9. (11) Lakers (14-11)
  10. (12) Celtics (13-10)
  11. (10) Clippers (15-7)
  12. (15) Pacers (16-7)
  13. (7) Mavericks (14-11)
  14. (14) Rockets (14-11)
  15. (17) Grizzlies (12-13)
  16. (13) Timberwolves (12-12)
  17. (18) Magic (15-10)
  18. (16) Jazz (13-10)
  19. (19) Bucks (10-13)
  20. (21) Suns (10-14)
  21. (22) Warriors (8-13)
  22. (24) Knicks (10-15)
  23. (20) Hornets (4-21)
  24. (25) Cavaliers (9-13)
  25. (23) Raptors (8-18)
  26. (28) Kings (9-15)
  27. (26) Nets (8-18)
  28. (27) Wizards (5-20)
  29. (28) Pistons (6-20)
  30. (30) Bobcats (3-21)

Some notes:

  1. Back in the top spot is Chicago – they have been there before this year, they finished the regular season last year #1.  Put simply, there is something to lean on here.  That said, as the Miami playoff showed, the offense was a problem.  The Bulls won last year with a combination of the league’s best defense and an offense that was above average – much the same formula the Celtics took to the title when Tom Thibodeau was assisting Doc Rivers.  That said, unlike the Celtics – the Bulls were in 2011 one of the league’s better shot generating teams.  The Bulls were 4th in the league at offensive rebounding and while the turnover rate was below average, it was enough to give them a lot of shots at the basket.  Despite a mediocre TS team, they were able to squeeze some extra juice out of their possessions.  What is interesting this year is the turnaround their offense HAS made – and it gives some hope for them advancing further in the playoffs.  The Bulls simply put, are making more shots.  Replacing Keith Bogans’ corpse with Richard Hamilton’s corpse has helped.  Also, a shocking improvement (probably unsustainable) by CJ Watson has upped the ante too – along with Derrick Rose upping his own FG%.  The team is just shooting better, their 3 point percentage has also gone up to 7th in the league – and while they get to the line less, it is by no means a huge drop off.  The TS side of the formula has gone up – while the already excellent shot generation is even better.  The Bulls are tops in the league in offensive rebounding, and they take care of the ball much better this season … all this leads to the 2nd best shot generating team in basketball.  So the Bulls are getting more shots up, and making more shots – this bodes well.
  2. The Suns … 20th in offense, it’s inconceivable.  Let’s move on.
  3. The 6th ranked Hawks did not have a particularly good week – and they are showing some possible regression to the mean here.  Al Horford is a really good player, and it is hard to imagine them being able to truck on without him so fearlessly.  But this is a good team, and that’s still 16 games they don’t have to win again.  The pieces are there to make the playoffs and possibly win a round considering the non-Miami and Chicago flotsam in the conference.  What is remarkable is the Hawks have been a legitimately good team this year with virtually no turnover from last year – when they were a searingly mediocre one.  Obviously the first real change is in personnel where Jeff Teague has showed he can be a legitimately decent NBA point guard.  If you saw him at Wake Forest, the elite level athletic ability has not abated.  He has been very strong defensively and has run a solid offense – not the elite level they were in 2010 on that end of the floor, but a more than estimable 11th.  However, their big leap has been defensively.  A year ago, this was an area of mediocrity, while now it is a strength.  Part of it is having Teague to check point guards.  Part of it is having an elite defender like Kirk Hinrich to be able to match up with a variety of alignments.  Part of it is Marvin Williams settling into becoming a good rotation player, and Josh Smith limiting his mental vacations.  But whatever the cause, the same roster which only was 11th in TS allowed due to its ability to resist committing fouls and defend the three, the roster which was near the bottom of the league in shot prevention – is in the top ten in both.  The Hawks have defended two point shots better this year while still fouling very little.  Moreover, they have risen from 29th in forcing turnovers a year ago to a solid 14th.  If the Hawks continue to defend this well – and really Josh Smith has to be the pillar here – they will not go away.
  4. The Clippers acquisition of Kenyon Martin is a quiet gem of a move.  The team clearly has a giant pile of bupkus behind Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan.  Everybody knows that.  But what everybody might not know is that the front court has also been quietly atrocious defensively.  Griffin has not shown an ability to be a high effort defender, and Jordan for his shot blocking clearly has not learned any of the Tim Duncan calculus on when is a good time to take a chance.  What is interesting is that despite an elite defensive backcourt – the Clippers are a pretty bad defensive team, and bad in a surprisingly across the board way.  They have issues defending the two, the three (28th), they foul too much (28th) and they aren’t especially distinguished at recovering misses when they DO happen (19th) or forcing turnovers (19th).  The offense has had to carry them and largely it has.  Martin, who has been an elite defensive big his whole life HAS to be able to help this somewhat.  Of course, part of defense is scheme and coaching and scouting, and this is still the cheap-ass CLIPPERS we are talking about.  If you think Vinnie Del Negro is an incompetent coach, the defensive level here might be something your lawyer might use in a trial.

College Basketball Pairwise NCAA Forecast #10

If the season ended today -  (rankings here :)

The Field of 68.  Easier to present it this way – ignoring procedural seeding rules.  Conference champs (leaders, wins first tiebreak, pairwise ranking second) in caps:

BOSTON

  • (1) SYRACUSE vs (16) NORFOLK STATE/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
  • (8) ORAL ROBERTS vs (9) Iowa State
  • (4) Florida State vs (13) Brigham Young/Northern Iowa
  • (5) Gonzaga vs (12) North Carolina State
  • (2) CREIGHTON vs (15) WEBER STATE
  • (7) Wisconsin vs (10) Arkansas
  • (3) Florida vs (14) VCU
  • (6) Connecticut vs (11) Minnesota

PHOENIX

  • (1) BAYLOR vs (16) TEXAS-ARLINGTON
  • (8) Virginia vs (9) Saint Louis
  • (4) Kansas vs (13) NEVADA
  • (5) Louisville vs (12) MURRAY STATE
  • (2) NORTH CAROLINA vs (15) BUCKNELL
  • (7) Vanderbilt vs (10) Kansas State
  • (3) Georgetown vs (14) WASHINGTON
  • (6) Wichita State vs (11) IONA

ATLANTA

  • (1) KENTUCKY vs (16) LONG ISLAND/STONY BROOK
  • (8) West Virginia vs (9) New Mexico
  • (4) Michigan State vs (13) CLEVELAND STATE
  • (5) SAINT MARY’S vs (12) Miami-FL
  • (2) Duke vs (15) AKRON
  • (7) Mississippi State vs (10) Memphis
  • (3) SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI vs (14) DAVIDSON
  • (6) SAN DIEGO STATE vs (11) Illinois

SAINT LOUIS

  • (1) OHIO STATE vs (16) UNC-ASHEVILLE
  • (8) Alabama vs (9) Harvard
  • (4) TEMPLE vs (13) Xavier/Mississippi
  • (5) UNLV vs (12) Seton Hall
  • (2) Missouri vs (15) BELMONT
  • (7) Indiana vs (10) California
  • (3) Marquette vs (14) LONG BEACH STATE
  • (6) Michigan vs (11) MIDDLE TENNESSEE

First four out: Arizona, Northwestern, Ohio, Saint Joseph’s

Next four out: South Dakota State, Purdue, Pittsburgh, Colorado State

Multi-Bid Leagues

  • Missouri Valley (3)
  • SEC (7)
  • Atlantic 10 (3)
  • West Coast (3)
  • ACC (6)
  • Big East (7)
  • Big Ten (7)
  • Conference USA (2)
  • Pac 12 (2)
  • Big 12 (5)
  • Mountain West (3)

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #3

OK, OK … I’m done whining about the quality of basketball so far.  It is what it is – maybe the season will get better – but the season is unfolding in a compelling way.  How have the rankings changed since last week’s tome?  Here ya go (previous position in parentheses):

  1. (3) Heat (16-5)
  2. (1) Sixers (15-6)
  3. (2) Bulls (18-5)
  4. (4) Hawks (15-6)
  5. (6) Nuggets (14-6)
  6. (5) Thunder (16-4)
  7. (9) Mavericks (14-8)
  8. (10) Blazers (12-9)
  9. (13) Spurs (13-9)
  10. (14) Clippers (12-7)
  11. (7) Lakers (12-9)
  12. (19) Celtics (9-10)
  13. (16) Timberwolves (10-11)
  14. (17) Rockets (12-9)
  15. (15) Pacers (13-6)
  16. (8) Jazz (12-7)
  17. (11) Grizzlies (10-10)
  18. (12) Magic (12-8)
  19. (21) Bucks (9-11)
  20. (20) Hornets (4-17)
  21. (18) Suns (7-13)
  22. (22) Warriors (6-12)
  23. (24) Raptors (7-14)
  24. (23) Knicks (7-13)
  25. (25) Cavaliers (8-11)
  26. (26) Nets (7-13)
  27. (29) Wizards (4-17)
  28. (27) Kings (6-14)
  29. (28) Pistons (4-18)
  30. (30) Bobcats (3-18)

Some notes:

  1. The big mover in the right direction has been Boston.  Yeah, 9-10 is not oozing impressiveness, and the schedule has not been the most strenuous.  However, the dual wins over Orlando and spunky win over Indiana more than offset the toe stub against the Cavaliers.  Considering how few points they have scored all season, it is easy for storyline NBA writers to talk about their offensive woes and how their defense misses Kendrick Perkins.  As it turns out, their offensive woes are overrated – they are not very good offensively, but they have been this way for a while now with the snail like pace they operate at.  The Celtics, as usual, are a good TS% team – 7th in the league, but between their indifferent offensive rebounding and lousy turnover rate – the Celtics like last year still generate the fewest looks of any team in the league.  That said, the defense has risen since Paul Pierce has returned.  The defense now is 2nd in the league, the best of the non-Sixers (who have lapped the field so far in that department).  Really where the team misses Perkins perhaps and still needs to improve is its 15th ranked defensive rebounding.  However, the Celtics are back to sort of usual – they need scoring more than defense.
  2. One thing to note about Boston’s results is that it might be skewed by its results over Orlando who had sort of a worst week ever.  Aside from a good win at Indiana, the Magic have been littered with awesomely poor efforts in Boston, and hosting Boston in the 2nd half, and then at New Orleans (though the Hornets are not as bad as their record).  Yeah their offense has looked horrible lately, but they always look that way because of the number of 3s hoisted up.  The TS% is a bit worse than a year ago (12th from 9th) but the real dropoff has been defensively.  This year the Magic – though about the same defensively quantitatively a year ago – has slipped from elite to decent.  Considering that Dwight Howard is their only good defensive player – he might be the cause.  Is he checking out of the season the way Melo did?  Considering his willingness to answer questions about future destinations on the record a la Melo 2011, it is hard to say no.
  3. The Magic right now are just punching above its metric weight.  The plunge of the week though went to Utah who slipped on the basis of a 2-2 week, with a home loss to Toronto being particularly mystifying.  The Jazz have been the beneficiaries of great seasons from Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap.  The bigs have led the Jazz to the 3rd most frequent visitor to the foul line, and the league’s 2nd best offensive rebound rate.  The two guys are strong with the ball too – as the Jazz have been a very low turnover team.  Sure Devin Harris has struggled and was never a passing point guard to begin with, but the Jazz with their pounding offense – manage to take care of the ball since it does not move much.  The Jazz are near the bottom of the league from 3, so this is really a 1976 sort of strategy – but so far the quantity approach (3rd in the league in shot generation) has worked out.  Really the Jazz have had to win with offense as the defense is not very good – merely 16th in the league – and seems distinguished only by the number of fouls committed.  Some things don’t change.
  4. If the Magic are the bad of recent note, the Ugly, Pathetic, and Sad have to be the Phoenix Suns.  A mere two seasons ago we’re talking about a team that was a scant two wins from the Finals.  Obviously they chose to let Amare go for financial reasons or whatever – but all of the personnel moves since are amazing to regard in collective.  I mean, in 2010 this team averaged 108 points per average paced game.  To give a perspective, the best team in 2011 was Denver at 104.3 let alone this year’s Denver’s 100.6.  So the Suns were a full 8 points better than the elite teams of this season!  Of course the 2010 Suns were merely a sentence of one of the great paragraphs in NBA history – a six year stretch interrupted by a brief blip where the otherwise brilliant Steve Kerr thought they needed to change – some of the best, most well oiled offensive teams ever.  Indeed while Mike D’Antoni was there, the defense was actually fairly good – the lack of physicality and pace of play obscured the fact that the team did a good job defending without fouling and largely preventing high value shots.  But you look at last year – as the Suns added Josh Childress, and then Vince Carter and Marcin Gortat – and became a more conventional alignment  – the team slipped to a mortal 9th place.  Meanwhile without Stoudemire there to provide any meaningful resistance – the defense actually DID start to stink.  This year it’s just depressing how far it has fallen.  The Suns are a mere 17th in pace, and now a sick sad 23rd in offense.  A Steve Nash team 23rd in offense?  92 points per game?  SIXTEEN POINTS WORSE than 2010?  From first in true shooting to 19th.  It’s a shame – and it feels entirely self inflicted as Steve Kerr laughs maniacally from his TNT position.  I am not sure the old way would have won a title – but we know THIS way won’t, and it ends up being horrendous basketball to boot.  A team that cranks out 60 win seasons – even if you don’t think it is a particular sustainable model – is some SORT of contender?  Shouldn’t Phoenix have ridden that out?  It’s not like they were blown out in their chances to shine.  Sigh.

 

 

College Basketball Pairwise NCAA Forecast #9

If the season ended today -  (rankings here :)

The Field of 68.  Easier to present it this way – ignoring procedural seeding rules.  Conference champs (leaders, wins first tiebreak, pairwise ranking second) in caps:

BOSTON

  • (1) SYRACUSE vs (16) UNC-ASHEVILLE/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
  • (8) ORAL ROBERTS vs (9) Connecticut
  • (4) Michigan State vs (13) CLEVELAND STATE
  • (5) SAINT MARY’S vs (12) IONA
  • (2) Missouri vs (15) LONG BEACH STATE
  • (7) Michigan vs (10) HARVARD
  • (3) Marquette vs (14) WEBER STATE
  • (6) Florida State vs (11) Mississippi

PHOENIX

  • (1) Duke vs (16) TEXAS-ARLINGTON
  • (8) West Virginia vs (9) Illinois
  • (4) Florida vs (13) MASSACHUSETTS
  • (5) Indiana vs (12) Iowa State
  • (2) Ohio State vs (15) BELMONT
  • (7) Mississippi State vs (10) Minnesota
  • (3) Temple vs (14) NEVADA
  • (6) Wisconsin vs (11) Arkansas

ATLANTA

  • (1) KENTUCKY vs (16) LONG ISLAND/STONY BROOK
  • (8) CALIFORNIA vs (9) Kansas State
  • (4) UNLV vs (13) Dayton/BYU
  • (5) Georgetown vs (12) Purdue
  • (2) KANSAS vs (15) BUCKNELL
  • (7) Wichita State vs (10) Alabama
  • (3) Creighton vs (14) AKRON
  • (6) Virginia vs (11) MIDDLE TENNESSEE

SAINT LOUIS

  • (1) Baylor vs (16) NORFOLK STATE
  • (8) Seton Hall vs (9) Memphis
  • (4) SOUTHERN MISS vs (13) NC State/Colorado State
  • (5) Vanderbilt vs (12) MURRAY STATE
  • (2) North Carolina vs (15) GEORGE MASON
  • (7) San Diego State vs (10) New Mexico
  • (3) Gonzaga vs (14) DAVIDSON
  • (6) Louisville vs (11) Xavier

First four out: Oregon, Saint Louis, Ohio, Northern Iowa

Next four out: Washington, Northwestern, Stanford, Saint Joseph’s

Multi-Bid Leagues

  • West Coast (3)
  • Atlantic 10 (4)
  • Mountain West (4)
  • ACC (5)
  • Big Ten (8)
  • Big 12 (5)
  • SEC (7)
  • Conference USA (2)
  • Big East (7)
  • Missouri Valley (2)

College Basketball Pairwise NCAA Forecast #8

If the season ended today -  (rankings here :)

The Field of 68.  Easier to present it this way – ignoring procedural seeding rules.  Conference champs (leaders, wins first tiebreak, pairwise ranking second) in caps:

BTW: Got a lot of traffic from Seton Hall fans for having them as a #2 seed.  Hey, as of last Sunday their resume was excellent.  I am not saying it will hold or trying to “predict” – more a “should” bracket than a “will”.  Either way, they have been excellent this season – enjoy!

BOSTON

  • (1) SYRACUSE vs (16) UNC-ASHEVILLE/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
  • (8) Florida vs (9) Virginia
  • (4) DAYTON vs (13) Oregon/Iowa State
  • (5) West Virginia vs (12) Colorado State
  • (2) North Carolina vs (15) AKRON
  • (7) Michigan vs (10) MURRAY STATE
  • (3) CREIGHTON vs (14) LONG BEACH STATE
  • (6) Wichita State vs (11) North Carolina State

PHOENIX

  • (1) Missouri vs (16) GEORGE MASON
  • (8) CALIFORNIA vs (9) IONA
  • (4) Gonzaga vs (13) DAVIDSON
  • (5) Southern Miss vs (12) Mississippi
  • (2) KANSAS vs (15) NORFOLK STATE
  • (7) Louisville vs (10) Minnesota
  • (3) Marquette vs (14) CENTRAL FLORIDA
  • (6) UConn vs (11) MIDDLE TENNESSEE

ATLANTA

  • (1) KENTUCKY vs (16) TEXAS-ARLINGTON/BOSTON UNIVERSITY
  • (8) Vanderbilt vs (9) Florida State
  • (4) Michigan State vs (13) Memphis/Purdue
  • (5) Temple vs (12) Northern Iowa
  • (2) OHIO STATE vs (15) BELMONT
  • (7) Illinois vs (10) Alabama
  • (3) Seton Hall vs (14) WEBER STATE
  • (6) Mississippi State vs (11) HARVARD

SAINT LOUIS

  • (1) DUKE vs (16) LONG ISLAND
  • (8) SAINT MARY’S vs (9) SAN DIEGO STATE
  • (4) UNLV vs (13) CLEVELAND STATE
  • (5) Indiana vs (12) Arkansas
  • (2) Baylor vs (15) BUCKNELL
  • (7) Wisconsin vs (10) ORAL ROBERTS
  • (3) Georgetown vs (14) NEVADA
  • (6) Kansas State vs (11) Xavier

First four out: New Mexico, Saint Louis, South Dakota State, Denver

Next four out: Marshall, Northwestern, Ohio, Stanford

Multi-Bid Leagues

  • Big 12 (5)
  • Big Ten (8)
  • Conference USA (3)
  • Pac 12 (2)
  • Mountain West (3)
  • Missouri Valley (3)
  • SEC (7)
  • Atlantic 10 (3)
  • West Coast (2)
  • Big East (7)

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #2

Well, since the last time we did this report, the league has crammed in another 116 games.  As we had pointed out then, the effects of the lockout and the accelerated offseason showed in some pretty shoddy basketball.  Well with more data, through 241 games the league PPP is still at 0.998, a far cry from last year’s 1.04.  Put another way, currently only 6 teams are above that number this season compared to 15 a year ago at this time.  Just like last week, we can see other metrics.

  • Turnover Rate: Last Year: 15.3% of possessions, This Year: 16.0%
  • TS%: Last Year: 54%, This Year: 52.1%
  • Shots per possession: Last Year: 0.962, This Year: 0.958.

With even two more weeks, the trends have been getting worse, instead of better.  The turnovers remain up, while the shooting is going down, and so the leaguewide scoring has gone down with it.  Just like we mentioned last time, it is tempting to attribute this to great defense – but given the lack of cohesion on so many rosters and the limited time together, it feels a lot like poor offense is much more to blame.  One place this might be evident is leaguewide foul shooting.  A year ago it was 76.4%, while this year it is down to 74.5%.  There is no reason for this to be the case other than guys just shooting poorly.  The league 3P% (35.6 to 34.0) has dipped as well.  So if you think that there have been a lot of low scoring, high turnover, poor shooting games – it’s not just you.

That said, despite the hide your eyes bad level of offensive play, and the way too aggressive schedule – the league is starting to unfold.  The latest rankings are in a permanent home this year, so hopefully you can skip right to the good stuff without reading all this jibberish.  However, if you are reading this – might as well get some observations out of the way:

  1. The Sixers hold the number one position again.  Granted, their losses to the Knicks and Heat do not give much confidence that this is the team’s true level.  However, they have clobbered the flotsam on their schedule.  120-89 over the Wizards, 112-85 over the Kings, etc etc.  This has led to that very lofty league’s #1 defensive ranking.  The Sixers are still excelling at preventing good looks, as their league best TS% allowed shows.  In particular, they continue to do a sensational job at limiting high value shots – leading the league in fewest three pointers allowed and 3rd in FT rate allowed.  That said, in the blowout loss to Miami, the Sixers allowed 54% shooting, 7 threes made in 89 possessions and 21 FTs, all much higher than their lofty levels, and all actually closer to last in the league than anything.  The Sixers seem to be above their heads, but the empirical case for them is still strong.
  2. This early in the season it is interesting to note teams whose rankings and record do not match.  A glaring case is the Indiana Pacers, whom the writer-sphere seems to think is a team to watch and whatever.  Certainly their depth is a virtue in this short season, and they have a number of good, close wins – last night at the Lakers most prominently.  The defense has been excellent, in particular leading the league in FG defense.  Without any other sensational fundamentals, their 41% FG allowed has carried them to the league’s 5th rated defense.  However, their scoring margin has not been that eye popping, mostly because of a gang which so far has not shot straight.  The 41% FG allowed is great.  The 41.9% FG of their own?  Yikes.  Fortunately, they have shot the three well (4th in the league and could stand to shoot it more) and have been one of the best teams in the league at converting at the foul line.  This has propped them up to 23rd in TS%, still not good, especially with the team being a pedestrian 26th in shots per possession.  The Pacers need to crank up the efficiency on that end of the floor.
  3. The big mover in a good way though has clearly been the Grizzlies – which is particularly surprising given the extended absence of Zach Randolph.  As you recall, last year’s late run sans Rudy Gay was driven by almost a 1976 style of play with very few three pointers and a maniacal attention to getting inside.  What is interesting is that much of their offensive style has not changed – actually they have kind of turned into the 2008-2010 Boston Celtics.  They are still not shooting the three (second from the bottom in threes per possession), they don’t get to the line much – but they shoot the twos very well, 4th in overall FG% and that has kept their TS% in the middle of the pack despite being only average at generating shots (16th – this is better tham the Celtics normally do since the Grizzlies actually crash the boards and limit turnovers).  The drop in shot generation and getting to the line has limited the offensive bonanza that their FG% would portend.  Z-Bo clearly helps in both areas.  Just as clearly, he doesn’t help play defense – and the Grizzlies have continued to be an elite turnover generating team – the Tony Allen Experience indeed – and that has been more than sufficient to offset any defensive rebounding help Z-Bo offered.  The Grizzlies were the best team in the league a season ago at preventing looks at the basket.  Now, that is not the case, but they have managed to stay a respectable 7th.

As far as the rankings through the games of 1/22/12? (Rankings from the first report – 1/8/12  – in parentheses):

  1. (1) Sixers (11-5)
  2. (5) Bulls (15-3)
  3. (3) Heat (11-5)
  4. (6) Hawks (12-5)
  5. (10) Thunder (13-3)
  6. (4) Nuggets (12-5)
  7. (9) Lakers (10-8)
  8. (13) Jazz (10-5) Suns (4-4)
  9. (16) Mavericks (10-7)
  10. (2) Blazers (9-7)
  11. (24) Grizzlies (9-6)
  12. (17) Magic (11-4)
  13. (12) Spurs (10-7)
  14. (7) Clippers (9-6)
  15. (14) Pacers (11-4)
  16. (11) Timberwolves (7-9)
  17. (19) Rockets (9-7)
  18. (8) Suns (6-9)
  19. (20) Celtics (6-9)
  20. (18) Hornets (3-13)
  21. (23) Bucks (6-9)
  22. (22) Warriors (5-10)
  23. (25) Knicks (6-10)
  24. (15) Raptors (4-13)
  25. (21) Cavaliers (6-9)
  26. (29) Nets (5-11)
  27. (28) Kings (6-11)
  28. (27) Pistons (4-13)
  29. (30) Wizards (2-14)
  30. (26) Bobcats (3-14)

Anyway, hopefully the season report will be a semi-regular feature.  Even still, the rankings will be updated at least once a week.