Well, that was a strange week away, huh? After last week knocked Alabama off of the island, with Texas A&M winning the game of the year – it sure seemed like we were in an Oregon-Kansas State collision course. Of course, this week both Oregon and Kansas State screwed that up – and so Notre Dame is now the one lone unbeaten, and Notre Dame still has a game left with the disappointing but potent USC. Pretty clearly the SEC is back in the game here. As always, rankings below are as of yesterday’s action, and the methodology can be found here:

Some notes from the week, and then our playoff preview:

• I guess we should/could have seen this week’s two losses coming – or for that matter Alabama’s loss.  Alabama had recorded that wildly impressive comeback at LSU – but they also had built up their shield of invincibility against a very soft schedule – and an SEC schedule without any of the East threats.  Texas A&M is at least as good as LSU and had more playmaking with Manziell and thus they lost.  Kansas State?  Well that is less forgivable as Baylor gave up 40 points a game and 71 to West Virginia – though they have an elite offense.  Oregon merely lost an overtime game to a peer elite program – they had not faced much truly difficult opposition all season either, but Stanford is really really good.
• So, with 2 weeks to go – what should we be focusing on.  Well, Stanford has to win at UCLA (#19 in this list) to clinch the Pac-12 North and earn the honor of facing UCLA a second time for the Pac-12 title.  If Stanford loses, then Oregon comes back into play – if it wins at #15 Oregon State in the Civil War.  For some reason, I keep expecting Oregon to emerge from this.  The funny thing is that Oregon took its loss late, which is usually suicidal – but has a chance to build up some serious brownie points.
• Florida is in a peculiarly good position.  They are going to lose the SEC East, so their season ends with their annual tilt against #5 Florida State.  They beat Florida, their #2 RPI position will continue to strengthen.  Meanwhile they will be standing by and watching the SEC title game.  For the most part, the SEC title game winner is ahead of Florida in the pecking order.  However, if Georgia loses to Georgia Tech this week – and GT has been pretty good in Athens the two times Paul Johnson had faced them – and then beats Alabama in the SEC title game, it might be hard to keep Florida from being the #1 team in the SEC.  That said, I have to think Alabama is the most likely option.
• From a straight BCS perspective, Alabama and Georgia and Notre Dame have the simplest “win and your in” tasks.  The ratings here are not huge Georgia fans, but as a practical BCS matter, it’s straightforward.

So how would our rankings and what we think of the rest of the season inform the BCS projection?

• Notre Dame is #1.  Florida is the rankings #2 – but playing the season out, Alabama feels much more likely, so Notre Dame v Alabama
• Oregon v Nebraska is the Rose Bowl, Florida State qualifies for the Orange Bowl, Kansas State qualifies for the Fiesta Bowl.
• The Sugar Bowl loses Alabama as its tie-in, so it gets a replacement.  The choice is between Florida and Georgia, but Florida’s resume is just a ton better.
• The Fiesta Bowl gets the first at-large.  All of the Pac-12 teams will be 3-loss teams in this scenario.  Oklahoma is the Big 12 team that would make the most sense but Kansas State is here already.  So we stay in the Pac-12 and go with UCLA – we are out of Pac-12 teams but the other conferences do not make a ton of sense.
• The Sugar Bowl gets Clemson – very easy here.  Orange gets Louisville.

So in summation:

• BCS Title Game: Notre Dame v Alabama
• Rose Bowl: Oregon v Nebraska
• Sugar Bowl: Florida v Clemson
• Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State v UCLA
• Orange Bowl: Florida State v Louisville

A National Playoff model – now that we know what it will look like, is easier to fill.  If we assume the Fiesta Bowl and the Sugar Bowl get the National Semifinals based on – well they are the last bowls to get rotated in …

• The Top 4 seeds are: Notre Dame, Alabama (winning the SEC), Florida State (who in this view beats Florida), and Oregon (who nudges out K-State with wins over Oregon State and UCLA, of course Stanford wins out this is moot and goes to K-State).  Oregon/Kansas State get the #3 seed in this view.
• As such, Notre Dame plays Florida State in the Fiesta Bowl, Alabama plays Oregon in the Sugar Bowl.
• The Sugar Bowl as part of the national title rotation sends its champs to other places – but since both K-State and Alabama are actual semifinalists, no big deal.
• The Rose Bowl loses Oregon, but gets a replacement – Oregon takes Stanford here and goes Stanford-Nebraska for the Rose Bowl (avoiding a regular season rematch of Nebraska-UCLA)
• The Orange Bowl loses Florida State and goes with Clemson instead.  Florida as the next best SEC team goes here.
• The Peach Bowl and Cotton get whomever … we got with Kansas State v Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl and Georgia v Oklahoma in the Peach Bowl.

Well, after the most profound weekend of the year – where Kansas State, Alabama, and Oregon all had major tests while Notre Dame almost failed a test nobody saw coming – the race gets a little more definition. Alabama as of yesterday morning had played precisely nobody – and now after their win in the Game of the Year to date this season, that is fixed. Notre Dame continues to be spotty on offense, and needed some real luck, but they have put a lot of wins up. Kansas State keeps navigating through a very good Big 12 without a ton of difficulty, though one hopes Colin Klein’s injury is not serious. As always, rankings below are as of yesterday’s action, and the methodology can be found here:

So what is the fun stuff this week?

• Well clearly, wow with Oregon’s 62 point outburst.  730 yards in a regulation game against a real opponent.  Yeah yeah, you hear the “wait til they play an SEC team” bleatings, but the team had no trouble moving the ball against LSU last year – they just made mistakes.  They will be deserved underdogs against an Alabama, but what weapons they have!
• Notre Dame – wow what a lucky Pass Interference.  But every team needs some luck – heck Alabama needed LSU to whiff on a series of 50-50 chances.
• LSU is a heck of a team, and might be better than last year’s edition because of a real quarterback – but that’s a moot point now.

Enough of the pleasantries, the BCS assessment:

• National Title Game: Alabama vs Kansas State – K-State moved ahead of Notre Dame after last week, no real shock there
• Rose Bowl: still Oregon vs Nebraska, we can agree on that
• Fiesta and Sugar Bowl lose teams, we get Florida to the Sugar Bowl and Notre Dame to the Fiesta Bowl
• Fiesta, Sugar, Orange the pecking order … so Notre Dame gets Oregon State, Florida gets Clemson and Florida State plays Louisville.

So the BCS lineup to me should be:

• Championship: Alabama v Kansas State
• Rose: Oregon v Nebraska
• Sugar: Florida v Clemson
• Fiesta: Notre Dame v Oregon State
• Orange: Florida State v Louisville

If we go to the National Playoff Model, using the Fiesta and Sugar Bowls as the semifinals:

• Alabama v Oregon, Kansas State v Notre Dame … for the sake of venue, the former goes to New Orleans, the latter to Glendale
• Rose Bowl takes Nebraska, but replaces Oregon with Oregon State
• Orange Bowl as a contracted bowl takes Florida State vs South Carolina
• Thing that isn’t Champions Bowl takes Florida and Oklahoma
• Peach Bowl: Clemson vs Georgia

Well, after falling asleep at the wheel for a week, a week where Florida threw down against South Carolina and Kansas State continued to stake their claim in an increasingly amazing season, we are back in the saddle. Of course, this past week’s action was also very telling as Alabama faced its first decent opponent since the opener and Notre Dame had a chance to show the doubters a thing or two against the increasingly mighty Sooners. Interestingly, compared to the last time we did this, Notre Dame has done nothing but really bolster their resume, but then so did another team with a Heisman clubhouse leader.  As always, rankings below are as of yesterday’s action, and the methodology can be found here:

As for the impressions of the last week (or two)?

1. Alabama continues its leading adjusted scoring margin by taking apart previously unbeaten Mississippi State.  Obviously this leads into their big road test coming up at LSU.  LSU will not be scared of them sure, but Alabama’s offense looks downright frightening with the efficiency AJ McCarron is displaying.  I have a hard time trusting LSU’s offense, but still Baton Rouge at night is not to be slept on.
2. Florida as you recall was the top team here for the last few weeks, but obviously cede that with the loss to Georgia.  However, the drop is merely to #4, as Georgia is not chopped liver, and they are still #2 in the RPI.  Their resume is spectacular, just a bit less spectacular than it had been.
3. Notre Dame of course with its stunning domination of Oklahoma I think at this point has to have quieted critics – and this is coming from someone who dislikes Notre Dame!  The schedule opens up until the season ending jaunt to USC.  I am not sure they will ever wow people like Oregon does, but their #1 RPI position is extremely worthy.  That said, they are tied with Kansas State for pairwins, but beat them out with the higher RPI.

So, where does this leave us for a BCS “should” projection?

• Alabama vs Notre Dame as your national title game.  This is pretty obvious.
• Rose Bowl gets what it wants – Oregon vs Nebraska
• Florida is #4 and the non-SEC winner, so automatically in
• Rest of the lineup is Fiesta-Sugar-Orange in priority.  The automatic bids are Kansas State (Big 12), Florida State (ACC), Big East (Louisville).  Oregon State and Texas Tech get the honors for the other slots.

The bowl lineup:

• BCS Title Game: Alabama v Notre Dame
• Rose: Oregon v Nebraska
• Fiesta: Kansas State v Oregon State
• Sugar: Florida v Texas Tech
• Orange: Florida State v Louisville

If we go to the 2014-15 “National Championship” model, with is more fleshed out you’d be looking at your six championship bowls:

• Rose Bowl (Big Ten Champ v Pac-12 Champ)
• Champions Bowl (either Cotton or Sugar, SEC champ v Big-12 champ)
• Orange Bowl (ACC Champ v either Notre Dame, SEC at-large or Big Ten at-large)
• Fiesta Bowl
• Cotton-Sugar Bowl
• Peach Bowl (yes, I know it has a corporate name – I don’t care)

The Top 4 seeds would be Alabama, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Oregon.  Since a committee is selecting the four teams, them passing over a league champ for an SEC team that won’t win its division most likely seems a hard sell.  Two of the six bowls will be deemed national semifinals.  Given the rotation the BCS had, it stands to reason the Fiesta and Sugar would get its turn.  So the Sugar Bowl gets Alabama vs Oregon, while Notre Dame-Kansas State is the Fiesta Bowl matchup.  This leaves us with the other four bowls to deal with, so let’s go.

Contracted Bowls:

The Rose Bowl gets Nebraska, period.  Losing Oregon to the Final Four, they get their choice of the highest remaining teams.  Oregon State is #10 and still a worthy Pac-12 team to take, so we have an Oregon State vs Nebraska Rose Bowl

The Champions Bowl loses both its teams, but we are contracted to have an SEC-Big 12 matchup, so we go down the line to Florida vs Texas Tech.  We assume this is the Cotton Bowl this year.

The Orange Bowl gets Florida State and the best team remaining.  The best choice is Georgia, so Florida State v Georgia

The final bowl is the Peach Bowl.  As an access bowl it has no ties, just the best matchup.  We take South Carolina v Stanford.

In summary:

• Fiesta Bowl (Semifinal A): Notre Dame v Kansas State
• Sugar Bowl (Semifinal B): Alabama v Oregon
• Champions Bowl: Florida v Texas Tech
• Rose Bowl: Oregon State v Nebraska
• Orange Bowl: Florida State v Georgia
• Peach Bowl: South Carolina v Stanford

Well, Sunday night and that must mean the first BCS Rankings hit the presses.  I can proudly say that the Top 2 as of initial printing, 2 of my Top 3 match the BCS, which granted is not the goal of the rankings – after all I think mine are better!  But it is interesting that the #1 team in terms of adjusted scoring margin and the #2 team in RPI terms sit at the top – a classic case of the “what” vs the “who”.   As always, rankings below are as of yesterday’s action, and the methodology can be found here:

What have we learned this week?

1. I think at this point, I’d expect the adjusted scoring margin to better match the BCS and whatnot.  After all, the BCS is largely concerned with eye test, and Alabama and Oregon answer the mail there.  Of course, these rankings consider the “who” as well as the “how”.  Is Notre Dame “better” than Alabama?  That is hard to justify by the eye test, but it is clear that Notre Dame, Florida, Oregon State, have all actually “accomplished” more.  That said, clearly Alabama will get its chances.
2. The big game of the week was South Carolina-LSU obviously, a win LSU had to have to keep its BCS hopes going.  South Carolina was #6 of course last week, and clearly the rankings did not punish them for a close loss.  Indeed, LSU adds some beef for their until recently fairly lean profile.
3. The big winners of the week turn out to be Oklahoma.  With their evisceration of Texas, Oklahoma is in very good shape to possibly be in line to move up if they keep winning Big 12 games.  Especially with Texas Tech’s win looking better and better, Oklahoma could be at the top of this list pretty soon.

So what does this mean BCS-wise?

• Championship Game: Notre Dame vs Alabama, pretty straighforward.  The Sugar Bowl takes Florida getting first crack
• Rose Bowl gets Oregon State, which nips out Oregon on the vast difference in schedule merit.  From the Big Ten, someone has to win I guess – Michigan gets the nod for now.
• Fiesta Bowl – Kansas State at the top, they play Oregon … Sugar Bowl – Florida vs Texas Tech, though I’d imagine it will be Oklahoma if you ask me this later.  Orange Bowl gets Cincinnati vs Maryland – ick!

Notre Dame, Florida, Bama and Oregon State are your final four.

Well, that was interesting.  It is hard to decide what was the highlight of the weekend – South Carolina’s loud pronouncement of their intention, Florida continuing to quietly amass the best resume in the county, Notre Dame sort of doing the same thing, or the Big Ten and ACC competing to see which conference outlook is the most depressing.  That said, Ohio State is clearly a national title contender, oh …. As always, rankings below are as of yesterday’s action, and the methodology can be found here:

A few of the quick notes:

• First off, definitely a hat tip to West Virginia.  Coming from the Big East, there has been much skepticism whether the throw-heavy attack can handle a high timber of opponent.  Last week’s win over Baylor did not prove much as Baylor’s defense is pretty awful.  But going to Austin, against a pretty good Texas team?  There you go.
• Staying in the Big 12, last week’s surprise of Texas Tech seemed like a mirage – and well, you know …
• Florida State’s shocking loss at NC State takes them off of the National Championship chase, I’d think.  Given the increasingly horrendous form of the ACC, it is hard to envision how Florida State could pile up the schedule brownie points to win a 1 loss tie.  Speaking of horrible ACC form, Georgia Tech forgetting how to play defense, Virginia Tech losing at UNC after going 0-2 against the Big East, Virginia getting drubbed by Duke, Notre Dame can’t get “into” the league fast enough.

Where does this leave our BCS projection?

• The national title game.  Florida has the best resume in the country, and Notre Dame with its rout of Miami is starting to pile up a lot of quality.  (and Notre Dame’s schedule ahead offers many more chances)
• The Rose Bowl gets the teams it wants, Oregon vs Michigan – the highest rated of the conference unbeatens.  Frankly, I’d give Ohio State the nod given their ranking and how silly prospective punishment is – but hey, we’ll follow the regs for now.
• The Sugar Bowl gets a replacement, and obviously #3 Alabama.  The order to fill the rest is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange.  Right now Kansas State is the Fiesta Bowl rep, and so they get Stanford.  The Sugar Bowl gets West Virginia and the Orange Bowl gets – dare I say – Duke (the highest ranked unbeaten) against Cincinnati from the Big East

In summary

• BCS Title Game: Florida v Notre Dame
• Rose Bowl: Oregon v Michigan
• Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State v Stanford
• Sugar Bowl: Alabama v West Virginia
• Orange Bowl: Duke v Cincinnati

In a national semifinal sort of framework, the top four seeds are clearly Florida, Notre Dame, Alabama and Oregon – though Ohio State obviously would get in if eligible.

One of the good things about being a fan of a large, BCS-level sort of school, even one with the sort of football Napoleon complex that Georgia Tech has, is that when it’s time to line up a cupcake, I win either way.  While it was disappointing and baffling to see Georgia Tech get their clocks cleaned by Middle Tennessee State yesterday, at the same time a Sun Belt team beat a high falutin snooty ACC/SEC program, and that is never a bad thing.  After all, these schools are being played to give the large school an automatic victory – it is always fun when the jobber does not play according to the script.  Similarly, Washington – a good team despite getting obliterated by LSU in Baton Rouge – decimated by injury, showed big and knocked off last week’s #1 Stanford Cardinal.  Suddenly, it is looking like an SEC/Big 12 oligarchy – in other words, a lot like the last few years.   As always, rankings below are as of yesterday’s action, and the methodology can be found here:

Behold, the new #1 – and it’s still not Alabama! Florida has delivered the mail to a more consistent degree than any other team in the country to date – and this is fully knowing that they almost kicked a game away to Bowling Green. The wins at College Station and Knoxville look very strong, and with South Carolina stumbling around for a spell against Kentucky, THAT even looks a scooch better now. Alabama is a better team and their top ranked adjusted scoring margin shows that, but Florida has unambiguously accomplished more. A couple other highlights from the week?

• Texas Tech’s schedule looks less soft than it is at this point.  Basically Iowa State was its first decent opponent.  To give you an idea, Texas State, New Mexico and the erstwhile FBS collective rank 87, 68 and 113 respectively.  Iowa State is #14 which is what is holding Texas Tech up, as well as Texas State’s decent start.  I suspect this will thin out over time.
• After a nice start, the Pac-12 has faded a bit, although they have a bunch of teams littered with upside.  In particular, Oregon State’s #1 RPI ranking is to be commended.  UCLA, Arizona and Wisconsin have a combined 1 loss against other opponents – the Beavers have delivered a combination of defense and QB play to remain a pest.  Few schools and coaches are as well matched as Oregon State and Mike Riley, who with the occasional hiccup delivers quality season after quality season in a very very hard place to win.

So what does this leave as far as BCS projectin?

1. Well, with Florida and Alabama in different divisions, hard to give them the Top 2.  So we move to #3 where Texas Tech for now gets the honor opposite Florida.  Obviously, it’s early.
2. With the Sugar and Fiesta Bowl losing anchors, we slide Alabama and Kansas State into those slots respectively.
3. With Ohio State not eligible, have to move to Northwestern as the Big Ten rep, with Oregon taking the Pac-12.
4. The batting order for the rest is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange.  Fiesta Bowl with the first pick takes Notre Dame, Sugar Bowl takes Stanford to oppose Alabama and the Orange Bowl takes the Big East champ, Cincinnati for now.

This week’s BCS Lineup:

• BCS Title Game: Florida vs Texas Tech
• Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Northwestern
• Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs Notre Dame
• Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs Stanford
• Orange Bowl: Florida State vs Cincinnati

Going to the 2014 model, Florida and Texas Tech the Top 2 seeds.  Alabama clearly #3 and Kansas State gets the nod at #4 for now.

Well, with the effects of the Hurricane – as opposed to the Miami Hurricanes, which had its own effect on the erstwhile Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – it took until Week 4, for all teams to have 2 games under their belt, and thus enough data to do the rankings. This has been an interesting season to date, marked by yet another round of “Notre Dame is back” bleats along with some strong evidence that Florida State might be for real. The continuing power of the SEC should surprise nobody, but the great start of the Pac 12 deserves a lot of consideration. Anyway, rankings below are as of yesterday’s action, and the methodology can be found here:

A few notes on what we see so far?

• Well, obviously it’s early, so the Strength of Schedule will start to iron itself out.  That said how is Stanford #1?  USC went 3-0 in its other games, Duke is 3-0 in its other games and San Jose State is 3-0 in its other games.  Alabama has better power metrics, but Arkansas 0-2 against other teams and Michigan’s loss to ND hurts their RPI.  Oregon State has the top RPI so far – like Stanford its opponents are unbeaten against the rest of their schedule to date.
• The model does not know the preseason Top 25, and it does not know how good LSU is on the eye test (I discount the uninspired result against Auburn, road game against a rival – that can happen).  Same with West Virginia or whatever.  Oregon only leapt up to #3 on the strength of a blowout of a team like Arizona that looked pretty good before this, as well as Arkansas State being solid since their opener.
• There is no BCS buster this year.  The Sun Belt and MAC have represented well.  In theory, Ohio COULD get to the Top 16, but really that is the only viable candidate.

Obviously, the BCS will be a vestige of Christmases past after the 2013 season – but we will still be doing it this season.  As such, we will still project:

• The BCS Title Game: Stanford vs Alabama, pretty straightforward
• With the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl losing its anchor teams, the top at-larges move up here.  Oregon slides into the Rose Bowl and Florida moves to the Sugar Bowl
• The rest of the bowl selection this year goes Fiesta, Sugar, Orange in priority.  Fiesta takes the best Big 12 team (Texas) and the top at-large left (Notre Dame).  The Sugar Bowl takes Kansas State as an at-large and the Orange Bowl, having the Big East champ available along with the ACC champ  will be Florida State vs Louisville
• So in summary – BCS Title Game: Stanford v Alabama, Rose Bowl: Michigan State v Oregon, Sugar Bowl: Florida v Kansas State, Fiesta Bowl: Texas v Notre Dame, Orange Bowl: Florida State v Louisville

If we’re going to the 2014 National Semifinal model – which has not been fully fleshed out, but knowing what we know – Stanford and Alabama would be the top 2 seeds.  Oregon would probably not be the #3 seed as Stanford would have beaten them for the Pac-12 North.  Texas, Florida and Notre Dame would also have semifinal claims – with league titles and RPI edges, Texas and Notre Dame would get the nods this week.