With last week’s number one going down in Oakland, we were going to get some shuffling at the top. In a scant three weeks we are almost out of unbeatens – and have some real intrigue here. As noted before the rankings compare each team with the other in terms of: RPI, adjusted scoring margin, record vs good teams, head to head and common opponents. Also note that the model is meant to be unbiased – so it only knows what the season has told us so far, and as we learn more about the teams, the results will reflect that. So without further intro:
| Rank | Team | W | L | RPI | Margin | PairWins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bills | 3 | 0 | 0.861 (1) | 16.667 (6) | 28 |
| 2 | Packers | 3 | 0 | 0.833 (2) | 17.583 (5) | 27 |
| 3 | Raiders | 2 | 1 | 0.746 (4) | 19.042 (3) | 26 |
| 4 | Saints | 2 | 1 | 0.667 (7) | 20.333 (1) | 25 |
| 5 | Cowboys | 2 | 1 | 0.746 (4) | 15 (7) | 24 |
| 6 | Patriots | 2 | 1 | 0.662 (8) | 18.792 (4) | 23 |
| 7 | Jets | 2 | 1 | 0.681 (6) | 12.5 (11) | 23 |
| 8 | Lions | 3 | 0 | 0.75 (3) | 13.958 (9) | 23 |
| 9 | Ravens | 2 | 1 | 0.607 (10) | 19.292 (2) | 22 |
| 10 | Redskins | 2 | 1 | 0.625 (9) | 14.417 (8) | 22 |
| 11 | Titans | 2 | 1 | 0.583 (12) | 12.542 (10) | 21 |
| 12 | Texans | 2 | 1 | 0.579 (13) | 12.417 (12) | 19 |
| 13 | 49ers | 2 | 1 | 0.572 (14) | 8.917 (13) | 18 |
| 14 | Bucs | 2 | 1 | 0.53 (17) | 7 (16) | 13 |
| 15 | Bengals | 1 | 2 | 0.414 (21) | 8.917 (14) | 12 |
| 16 | Giants | 2 | 1 | 0.565 (15) | 3.833 (19) | 12 |
| 17 | Bears | 1 | 2 | 0.435 (18) | 4.167 (17) | 12 |
| 18 | Steelers | 2 | 1 | 0.593 (11) | 0.458 (22) | 11 |
| 19 | Broncos | 1 | 2 | 0.393 (22) | 7.167 (15) | 11 |
| 20 | Cardinals | 1 | 2 | 0.389 (24) | 2 (20) | 8 |
| 21 | Panthers | 1 | 2 | 0.365 (25) | 0.417 (23) | 6 |
| 22 | Jaguars | 1 | 2 | 0.431 (19) | -6.667 (27) | 5 |
| 23 | Browns | 2 | 1 | 0.419 (20) | -6.417 (26) | 5 |
| 24 | Chargers | 2 | 1 | 0.556 (16) | -7.542 (28) | 5 |
| 25 | Falcons | 1 | 2 | 0.361 (26) | -4 (25) | 4 |
| 26 | Seahawks | 1 | 2 | 0.389 (23) | -8.75 (29) | 4 |
| 27 | Eagles | 1 | 2 | 0.331 (27) | -3.917 (24) | 3 |
| 28 | Vikings | 0 | 3 | 0.25 (29) | 3.917 (18) | 3 |
| 29 | Dolphins | 0 | 3 | 0.194 (30) | 1.167 (21) | 2 |
| 30 | Colts | 0 | 3 | 0.167 (31) | -9.667 (30) | 1 |
| 31 | Chiefs | 0 | 3 | 0.306 (28) | -17.583 (32) | 0 |
| 32 | Rams | 0 | 3 | 0.167 (31) | -15.208 (31) | 0 |
Some notes:
- The big mover of the week was San Francisco going up to 13. Their win against Cincinnati, combined with the Seahawks first win of the year and the Cowboys win over the previous #2 Redskins gives their schedule a boost. The Steelers similarly benefitted from their own win over the Colts as well as the Ravens and Seahawks each winning.
- The plunge of the week goes to the Redskins and Jets. That said, both lost to solid opponents, so not a whole lot bad can be said – except that the Redskins will be kicking themselves for blitzing on a 3rd and 21.
- It is way too early to say there will be a lot of turnover in the playoff pecking order this year, but 4 division winners from a year ago have faced some tough sledding. The Eagles in particular have gone 1-2 against a not that impressive a schedule. Of course one expected that they’d be a better team in Week 11 than Week 3.
