Tag Archives: Boston

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2012 MLB Update #4 – The Home Stretch

First, apologies in advance for the lack of attentiveness and diligence with putting together baseball missives – indeed the season has flown by, and the Red Sox-Dodgers blockbuster clearly announced the exit of Boston from the pennant chase and reconfigured the race for 2012 and beyond.  Or did it really?  A bit more on this, but first, the rankings as of today:

Rank Team W L Pythag SOS Recent RecRank Total
1 Saint Louis Cardinals 71 57 0.61 (1) 0.51 (2) 0.573 3 0.564
2 Atlanta Braves 73 56 0.579 (5) 0.496 (20) 0.616 2 0.564
3 Tampa Bay Rays 70 58 0.57 (6) 0.493 (23) 0.625 1 0.563
4 Washington Nationals 77 50 0.6 (2) 0.505 (6) 0.561 4 0.555
5 Chicago White Sox 71 56 0.565 (8) 0.505 (7) 0.557 5 0.542
6 Texas Rangers 76 52 0.593 (3) 0.496 (19) 0.536 11 0.542
7 Cincinnati Reds 78 52 0.568 (7) 0.508 (3) 0.537 10 0.538
8 New York Yankees 74 54 0.585 (4) 0.484 (30) 0.538 9 0.536
9 Oakland Athletics 70 57 0.541 (9) 0.493 (25) 0.544 8 0.526
10 Detroit Tigers 69 58 0.528 (12) 0.495 (22) 0.552 6 0.525
11 Milwaukee Brewers 60 67 0.507 (17) 0.514 (1) 0.545 7 0.522
12 Los Angeles Dodgers 69 60 0.53 (11) 0.507 (5) 0.523 14 0.52
13 Arizona Diamondbacks 64 65 0.527 (13) 0.505 (8) 0.525 13 0.519
14 San Francisco Giants 71 57 0.53 (10) 0.501 (11) 0.506 16 0.512
15 Seattle Mariners 62 67 0.504 (18) 0.488 (28) 0.533 12 0.508
16 Boston Red Sox 62 67 0.527 (14) 0.493 (24) 0.49 17 0.503
17 Pittsburgh Pirates 68 60 0.51 (16) 0.507 (4) 0.463 23 0.493
18 San Diego Padres 60 70 0.452 (23) 0.504 (9) 0.513 15 0.49
19 Anaheim Angels 66 62 0.52 (15) 0.492 (26) 0.451 25 0.488
20 Philadelphia Phillies 61 67 0.478 (19) 0.5 (12) 0.479 19 0.485
21 Kansas City Royals 56 71 0.451 (24) 0.499 (15) 0.484 18 0.478
22 Baltimore Orioles 70 57 0.46 (22) 0.488 (27) 0.474 20 0.474
23 Colorado Rockies 52 75 0.423 (25) 0.5 (13) 0.474 21 0.466
24 Minnesota Twins 52 76 0.41 (27) 0.496 (21) 0.466 22 0.457
25 New York Mets 59 69 0.464 (21) 0.497 (18) 0.41 27 0.457
26 Chicago Cubs 49 78 0.4 (28) 0.499 (14) 0.456 24 0.452
27 Miami Marlins 58 71 0.411 (26) 0.498 (16) 0.439 26 0.449
28 Toronto Blue Jays 57 70 0.47 (20) 0.488 (29) 0.367 30 0.442
29 Cleveland Indians 55 73 0.386 (29) 0.498 (17) 0.378 28 0.421
30 Houston Astros 40 88 0.338 (30) 0.502 (10) 0.369 29 0.403

If we went and projected records (using ranking for rest of season), your playoff seeds:

American League:

  1. Texas Rangers (94-68)
  2. New York Yankees (92-70)
  3. Chicago White Sox (90-72)
  4. Oakland Athletics (88-74)
  5. Detroit Tigers (87-75)

National League

  1. Washington Nationals (96-66)
  2. Cincinnati Reds (95-67)
  3. San Francisco Giants (88-74)
  4. Atlanta Braves (92-70)
  5. Saint Louis Cardinals (90-72)
  • Obviously, the Nationals’ magical season has continued unabated.  There is the Stephen Strasburg drama – and the Nationals decision is defensible, although I definitely disagree – but even without him their rotation is formidable.  That said, a rotation sans Strasburg and a fairly pedestrian lineup could spell a short stay in October.
  • On the other hand, the Cardinals are still in a strong chase for the wild card.  The Giants, Dodgers, Pirates are all still very much in the chase.  That said, unlike the Nationals, the Cardinals seem the total package.  Their league best pythagorean speaks to just how strong their peripherals are.  The wins have not showed up frequently enough, but this is a seriously dangerous outfit if they can find their way into the main draw.  The Braves-Cardinals wild card game might be the most dramatic single game of the entire NL playoffs.
  • The Dodgers as of now rate as an 86-76 team, but this is without considering the fascinating trade which netted them Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford.  Is there reason to think these changes will help them to close the gap with either the Giants or Cards?  Well, Adrian Gonzalez is going to have a huge impact – not just because he is a good ballplayer, but because he is replacing James Loney – who is providing middle infield level production at first freakin base.  Anytime you can bounce back from true replacement level to fringy elite, there can be an outsized impact in the wash.  As a Red Sox fan though, it is hard to see Josh Beckett bouncing back to more than 4/5 sort of starter though.  The pitches don’t work anymore and his own approach to pitching has never been “crafty”.
  • The deal guarantees nothing for Boston obviously.  Prospects are dudes who haven’t delivered in a major league capacity – that is the point.  The only major league body they have is James Loney, who is barely that.  That said, the prospects Boston did get were among the best in the Dodgers’ system – both De La Rosa and Webster have been graded very favorability as arms with significant promise.  That the Red Sox got actual prospects in a salary dump is a small miracle.  The Red Sox have some of their future back – which says good things about Ben Cherington as GM – if the bizarre, status obsessed ownership lets him do his thing.  But can these owners leave well enough alone and let winning move the needle?  Well, that’s the allotment of optimism I have for my day.
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2012 MLB Update #2

Last time we did this was at the end of May – where the surprising start of the Los Angeles Dodgers had seemed to be lording over the league – of course after four straight shutout losses, and Matt Kemp’s prolonged absence – their hideous offense has seemed to catch up with them.  (Seriously, James Loney as a a first basemen for a team with any aspirations – .236/.303/.323).  Saint Louis has seemed to be the best in the NL – at least thinking about them entering the season, and it has largely stood up – although their close game record has been peculiar.   But as we hurtle towards the halfway point of the season, suddenly the cream is starting to rise:

Rank Team W L Pythag SOS Recent RecRank Total
1 Texas Rangers 49 29 0.629 (1) 0.501 (16) 0.579 5 0.569
2 Boston Red Sox 41 36 0.573 (6) 0.499 (19) 0.623 1 0.565
3 Anaheim Angels 43 34 0.578 (5) 0.498 (20) 0.616 2 0.564
4 Chicago White Sox 42 35 0.57 (7) 0.508 (6) 0.56 7 0.546
5 Washington Nationals 44 31 0.582 (3) 0.504 (12) 0.551 8 0.546
6 New York Mets 42 36 0.532 (11) 0.498 (21) 0.593 3 0.541
7 Saint Louis Cardinals 40 37 0.583 (2) 0.512 (3) 0.504 14 0.533
8 New York Yankees 46 30 0.581 (4) 0.487 (26) 0.526 11 0.531
9 Pittsburgh Pirates 41 35 0.505 (16) 0.504 (11) 0.584 4 0.531
10 Arizona Diamondbacks 39 37 0.533 (10) 0.506 (9) 0.546 9 0.528
11 Oakland Athletics 37 41 0.502 (17) 0.49 (24) 0.56 6 0.517
12 San Francisco Giants 44 34 0.526 (14) 0.511 (5) 0.504 15 0.514
13 Cincinnati Reds 42 35 0.527 (13) 0.504 (10) 0.506 13 0.512
14 Toronto Blue Jays 39 38 0.535 (8) 0.487 (27) 0.497 17 0.507
15 Milwaukee Brewers 34 42 0.471 (21) 0.519 (1) 0.503 16 0.498
16 Philadelphia Phillies 36 43 0.484 (18) 0.511 (4) 0.497 18 0.497
17 Tampa Bay Rays 41 36 0.508 (15) 0.483 (29) 0.495 19 0.495
18 Kansas City Royals 35 39 0.458 (23) 0.499 (18) 0.526 10 0.494
19 Detroit Tigers 37 40 0.481 (19) 0.492 (23) 0.508 12 0.494
20 Atlanta Braves 40 36 0.534 (9) 0.487 (28) 0.43 27 0.484
21 Los Angeles Dodgers 43 35 0.53 (12) 0.513 (2) 0.381 30 0.475
22 Seattle Mariners 34 46 0.467 (22) 0.488 (25) 0.44 24 0.465
23 Baltimore Orioles 42 34 0.476 (20) 0.473 (30) 0.445 23 0.464
24 Houston Astros 32 45 0.429 (26) 0.507 (7) 0.447 22 0.461
25 Cleveland Indians 38 38 0.433 (24) 0.499 (17) 0.438 26 0.457
26 Chicago Cubs 27 48 0.405 (27) 0.504 (13) 0.454 21 0.454
27 San Diego Padres 28 50 0.365 (30) 0.506 (8) 0.482 20 0.451
28 Colorado Rockies 29 46 0.429 (25) 0.504 (14) 0.394 29 0.442
29 Miami Marlins 36 40 0.404 (28) 0.501 (15) 0.4 28 0.435
30 Minnesota Twins 30 45 0.366 (29) 0.497 (22) 0.44 25 0.434

We have been waiting for the Rangers to really start to assert themselves. Indeed Texas and Anaheim on paper looked like the best teams in baseball entering the season – Anaheim with its terrific pitching and Texas with its overall balance.  I don’t buy Boston as the #2 team either, but they have been very good lately with a 12-7 record and the top run differential during that time.  Bobby Valentine is a weird, oily guy – and Terry Francona did a magnificent job in his time – but Bobby has done an outstanding job with a patchwork outfield and figuring out a bullpen which looked like a human powder keg.

Clearly – the paper tiger so far has been Baltimore, with a negative run differential but still a 42-34 record.  On the other hand, with the second wild card position – that is 42 wins they don’t have to get, so while the rankings project Baltimore to finish 82-80, 85-77 might be good enough to make the playoffs.  What is particularly notable this season is how close the entire field actually is.  You look at the rankings themselves – the difference between #4 and #10 works out to 2 wins over a 162 game slate.  Indeed, the rankings only see four 90 win teams right now (Rangers, Angels, Yankees, Nationals) let alone any 100 win team.  This season has been a particular display of parity and it will be interesting to see if this holds.

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2012 NBA Playoffs: Conference Finals Preview

And then there were four.  After the Boston Celtics’ glorious though kind of unwatchable Game 7 win, we are left with 4 of the league’s 7 best teams and three of the top four.  Of course this is no surprise given the NBA playoffs spectacular ability to identify the best team – you end up with precious few true surprises.  So with a fairly chalky Final Four, how will this shake out?

Eastern Conference Finals: Miami Heat (4th overall, 6th offense, 4th defense) vs Boston Celtics (7th overall, 24th offense, 1st defense)

Wow, Avery Bradley’s loss is huge.  Given how incompetent he looked for a year and half of his career, this is kind of incredible.  Indeed, as John Hollinger pointed out, even with a rough shooting postseason, Bradley led the Celtics in +/-.  If you remember his sensational block on Dwayne Wade in their regular season encounters – then you can see how Bradley’s loss coupled with Wade’s amazing last couple games in the Indiana series portend to something scary for Boston.  Considering how horrible their offense has been, the Celtics need to lean on their defense and without Bradley that will be hard.  Sure, Chris Bosh’s injury is a slow healer and a high risk one – he won’t be 100% – but LeBron and Wade are clicking so easily now that it is hard to envision the shorthanded Celtics being more than a bug on a windshield.  Heat in 5

Western Conference Finals: San Antonio Spurs (2nd overall, 1st offense, 10th defense) vs Oklahoma City Thunder (3rd overall, 2nd offense, 8th defense)

The Spurs, with Parker and when not punting games to rest their old guys have won 43 of their last 47 games.  This is obviously phenomenal.  They have had blowouts down the stretch against all of their peers, including Oklahoma City.  However, the Thunder’s body of work is a little better than the Spurs with a slightly better defense.  However, San Antonio’s defense has hunkered down in the postseason – and you’d like to think that Duncan and Splitter mean a tougher interior D than Ibaka – who can block shots but not so much at position defense.  Can the Thunder stop the Spurs’ pick and roll?  It is hard to envision, given how the Spurs can spread you out so completely.  In contrast, the Thunder’s offensive prowess is built into individual ability more than a passing and motion attack.  Harden vs Ginobli, Parker vs Westbrook.  The Thunder thrive on winning 1-on-1 battles, but can they win enough here to hang with the Spurs?  Despite Durant’s brilliance – I just don’t see it.  It is going to be a hell of a series though.  Spurs in 6

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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #10 – Final Report and Playoff Preview

First as you have probably seen from the last couple of entries, people still have Cystic Fibrosis – blah blah blah – click here to help …

FINALLY.  The best of the playoff seasons is upon us.  Of course this was after a truly execrable last couple of weeks of the season where teams were playing scrubs shamelessly while still charging full prices.  The Tuesday Celtics-Heat game was a particular atrocity.  So the rankings could be skewed a tiny bit.  But whatever, the playoffs are here and looks at the series are coming up … how have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (2) Bulls (50-16)
  2. (4) Spurs (50-16)
  3. (1) Thunder (47-19)
  4. (3) Heat (46-20)
  5. (5) Sixers (35-31)
  6. (10) Nugggets (38-28)
  7. (6) Celtics (39-27)
  8. (8) Hawks (40-26)
  9. (7) Grizzlies (41-25)
  10. (15) Clippers (40-26)
  11. (13) Mavericks (36-30)
  12. (9) Lakers (41-25)
  13. (14) Knicks (36-30)
  14. (16) Pacers (42-24)
  15. (11) Magic (37-29)
  16. (12) Rockets (34-32)
  17. (18) Suns (33-33)
  18. (20) Jazz (36-30)
  19. (19) Bucks (31-35)
  20. (17) Blazers (28-38)
  21. (21) Timberwolves (26-40)
  22. (22) Warriors (23-43)
  23. (24) Hornets (21-45)
  24. (23) Raptors (23-43)
  25. (25) Kings (22-44)
  26. (29) Wizards (20-46)
  27. (27) Pistons (25-42)
  28. (28) Nets (22-44)
  29. (26) Wizards (21-45)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-59)

It’s the playoffs!  So – quick looks at your first round series are in order:

  • (E1) Bulls v (E8) Sixers – This is #1 vs #5.  What a matchup!  However, the Sixers have really stumbled down the stretch, but the metrics have been strong as the Sixers blowouts early still have resonance.  The Bulls with Derrick Rose’s dicey injury situation could be great – but they could be tricky.  Defense will be the order of the day (#2 v #3) and neither team is great from outside.  I can’t imagine the Bulls losing this but the Sixers match up well with them, better than they do with the Heat.  Bulls in 7
  • (E4) Celtics v (E5) Hawks – #7 vs #8.  Interestingly here the lower seed has home court.  The Celtics have been very strong down the stretch.  But so have the Hawks, both in the Top 6 since the trade deadline.  The Celtics have serious issues with rebounding and size, but the Hawks are 26th in offensive rebounding, so it is hard to read that as a huge edge.  The games have all been close in their head to head.  Really more of a coin flip than the experts purport.  Hawks in 7
  • (E2) Heat v (E7) Knicks – #4 vs #13 Fun series with two defensively adept teams.  Anthony and LeBron will be a great matchup and the Novak/Smith bench for the Knicks could explode.  But it is hard to envision the Knicks winning in Miami.  This is a fun series but Heat in 6
  • (E3) Pacers v (E6) Magic – The Pacers have the 5th best record in the league but merely #14 in rankings.  This describes the Pacers in general – a nice team, lot of good players, but is this the juice to win a playoff series?  The Magic will be motivated with no Dwight Howard and “nobody believing in them”. Did the Pacers more competitive than it seemed result vs Chicago last year inform them or will the Magic’s winning experience do it?  Without Glen Davis, the Magic just don’t have enough players now – good or otherwise.  Pacers in 5
  • (W1) Spurs v (W8) Jazz – Spurs can flat out score, but the Jazz can attack with size.  Will the Spurs lose in round 1 again?  Frankly I’d have more faith in the Jazz if their defense was not so mediocre.  Against the buzz saw offense of San Antonio it is tough sledding.  Spurs in 5
  • (W4) Grizzlies v (W5) Clippers – Grizzlies are a sexy pick to upset the apple cart.  However this is not last year’s Zach Randolph.  Meanwhile the Clippers just have more better players and one of the game’s best all around players and leaders.  Look how the Hornets stole 2 games against the Lakers with Chris Paul and nobody – he is just that good.  In the playoffs, the stars play more.  Lob City is not done yet.  Clippers in 6
  • (W2) Thunder v (W7) Mavericks – Hard series to peg.  On paper, Thunder should rip through this.  In actuality, Dallas can throw a lot of junk D at them and make the Thunder really work for it.  But it won’t be enough.  Thunder in 7
  • (W3) Lakers v (W6) Nuggets – Denver has depth.  The Lakers don’t.  Denver has speed, and the Lakers have real issues with that.  But the Lakers have all the really good players here and their size and ability to dictate in the half court.  I hope Denver can make this fun.  I think the Lakers grind it out enough.  Lakers in 6
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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #9

Ten or so games left, and things are starting to take shape with some amazing jumps since the trade deadline now that we have some games of data to work with.   How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (1) Thunder (42-15)
  2. (2) Bulls (43-14)
  3. (1) Heat (40-15)
  4. (5) Spurs (40-15)
  5. (4) Sixers (29-27)
  6. (16) Celtics (32-24)
  7. (12) Grizzlies (33-23)
  8. (6) Hawks (34-23)
  9. (7) Lakers (36-22)
  10. (9) Nuggets (31-26)
  11. (8) Magic (34-23)
  12. (14) Rockets (32-25)
  13. (10) Mavericks (31-26)
  14. (15) Knicks (29-27)
  15. (13) Clippers (34-23)
  16. (11) Pacers (35-22)
  17. (17) Blazers (27-31)
  18. (22) Suns (30-27) Timberwolves (22-24)
  19. (19) Bucks (28-29)
  20. (21) Jazz (30-28)
  21. (18) Timberwolves (25-33)
  22. (20) Warriors (22-34)
  23. (25) Raptors (20-38)
  24. (23) Hornets (15-42) Cavaliers (17-26)
  25. (26) Kings (19-38)
  26. (24) Cavaliers (18-36)
  27. (27) Pistons (21-36)
  28. (28) Nets (21-37)
  29. (29) Wizards (13-44)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-48)

Some notes:

  • I can hear Jim Ross’ voice now.  (seriously – if you could have any announcer for any sporting event of any sort of meaning – JR takes a back seat to nobody) MY GAWD, IS THAT, IT’S THE BOSTON CELTICS!!!!  The Celtics surge into relevancy has been staggering, especially as their schedule has started to include playoff team after playoff team.  Since the trade deadline Boston is 6th in the league in point differential, and tops in defense allowing a staggering 86 points per average game.  How have they done it?  Well in terms of personnel, the move of Kevin Garnett to center and Avery Bradley to the starting lineup has created an athletic lineup and allowed Boston to play its best players more frequently.  The numbers since the deadline have been amazing, and they have surged into tops in the league for the season.  Without a good rebounding squad, Boston has had to defend the shot hard and they have done so leading the league in FG and 3PT percentage, by such a margin that pedestrian shot prevention (20th) has not been an issue.  I am not saying they will go anywhere – the offense is still putrid by good team standards- but the defensive surge has given them a chance.
  • Similarly the Memphis Grizzlies, after a brief hiccup, have started to get well with a very strong stretch and the adding of Zach Randolph to the mix.  Their 7th ranking seems a bit high, but really they are being buoyed by their league toughest schedule to date.  Also, they – like Boston – are no great shakes offensively.  However, the Grizzlies have put together a good defensive team built on volume.  The Grizzlies force turnovers and rebound misses.  They have the 5th widest gap between their FGs and Opponents on a possession basis.  The rugged physical style makes them a fascinating playoff team – though their unwillingness to shoot 3s is a worry.  Also, volume dependent teams have had a history of struggling as the teams in front of them go up in quality.
  • At the moment the Atlantic Division winner is guaranteed a Top 4 seed, while the runners up are no higher than 7th.  Put simply, the Sixers’ struggles – a combination of poor offense and some really bad close game luck, has then on the edge of having to play Chicago in Round 1.  Boston-Atlanta is a much more benign matchup to say the least.  Out west the surging Grizzlies are only 2 games behind the Lakers for 3rd in the conference.  The folks in Bristol might have a giant circle jerk if that happens as the Lakers-Clippers 1st round series would become a reality.
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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #3

OK, OK … I’m done whining about the quality of basketball so far.  It is what it is – maybe the season will get better – but the season is unfolding in a compelling way.  How have the rankings changed since last week’s tome?  Here ya go (previous position in parentheses):

  1. (3) Heat (16-5)
  2. (1) Sixers (15-6)
  3. (2) Bulls (18-5)
  4. (4) Hawks (15-6)
  5. (6) Nuggets (14-6)
  6. (5) Thunder (16-4)
  7. (9) Mavericks (14-8)
  8. (10) Blazers (12-9)
  9. (13) Spurs (13-9)
  10. (14) Clippers (12-7)
  11. (7) Lakers (12-9)
  12. (19) Celtics (9-10)
  13. (16) Timberwolves (10-11)
  14. (17) Rockets (12-9)
  15. (15) Pacers (13-6)
  16. (8) Jazz (12-7)
  17. (11) Grizzlies (10-10)
  18. (12) Magic (12-8)
  19. (21) Bucks (9-11)
  20. (20) Hornets (4-17)
  21. (18) Suns (7-13)
  22. (22) Warriors (6-12)
  23. (24) Raptors (7-14)
  24. (23) Knicks (7-13)
  25. (25) Cavaliers (8-11)
  26. (26) Nets (7-13)
  27. (29) Wizards (4-17)
  28. (27) Kings (6-14)
  29. (28) Pistons (4-18)
  30. (30) Bobcats (3-18)

Some notes:

  1. The big mover in the right direction has been Boston.  Yeah, 9-10 is not oozing impressiveness, and the schedule has not been the most strenuous.  However, the dual wins over Orlando and spunky win over Indiana more than offset the toe stub against the Cavaliers.  Considering how few points they have scored all season, it is easy for storyline NBA writers to talk about their offensive woes and how their defense misses Kendrick Perkins.  As it turns out, their offensive woes are overrated – they are not very good offensively, but they have been this way for a while now with the snail like pace they operate at.  The Celtics, as usual, are a good TS% team – 7th in the league, but between their indifferent offensive rebounding and lousy turnover rate – the Celtics like last year still generate the fewest looks of any team in the league.  That said, the defense has risen since Paul Pierce has returned.  The defense now is 2nd in the league, the best of the non-Sixers (who have lapped the field so far in that department).  Really where the team misses Perkins perhaps and still needs to improve is its 15th ranked defensive rebounding.  However, the Celtics are back to sort of usual – they need scoring more than defense.
  2. One thing to note about Boston’s results is that it might be skewed by its results over Orlando who had sort of a worst week ever.  Aside from a good win at Indiana, the Magic have been littered with awesomely poor efforts in Boston, and hosting Boston in the 2nd half, and then at New Orleans (though the Hornets are not as bad as their record).  Yeah their offense has looked horrible lately, but they always look that way because of the number of 3s hoisted up.  The TS% is a bit worse than a year ago (12th from 9th) but the real dropoff has been defensively.  This year the Magic – though about the same defensively quantitatively a year ago – has slipped from elite to decent.  Considering that Dwight Howard is their only good defensive player – he might be the cause.  Is he checking out of the season the way Melo did?  Considering his willingness to answer questions about future destinations on the record a la Melo 2011, it is hard to say no.
  3. The Magic right now are just punching above its metric weight.  The plunge of the week though went to Utah who slipped on the basis of a 2-2 week, with a home loss to Toronto being particularly mystifying.  The Jazz have been the beneficiaries of great seasons from Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap.  The bigs have led the Jazz to the 3rd most frequent visitor to the foul line, and the league’s 2nd best offensive rebound rate.  The two guys are strong with the ball too – as the Jazz have been a very low turnover team.  Sure Devin Harris has struggled and was never a passing point guard to begin with, but the Jazz with their pounding offense – manage to take care of the ball since it does not move much.  The Jazz are near the bottom of the league from 3, so this is really a 1976 sort of strategy – but so far the quantity approach (3rd in the league in shot generation) has worked out.  Really the Jazz have had to win with offense as the defense is not very good – merely 16th in the league – and seems distinguished only by the number of fouls committed.  Some things don’t change.
  4. If the Magic are the bad of recent note, the Ugly, Pathetic, and Sad have to be the Phoenix Suns.  A mere two seasons ago we’re talking about a team that was a scant two wins from the Finals.  Obviously they chose to let Amare go for financial reasons or whatever – but all of the personnel moves since are amazing to regard in collective.  I mean, in 2010 this team averaged 108 points per average paced game.  To give a perspective, the best team in 2011 was Denver at 104.3 let alone this year’s Denver’s 100.6.  So the Suns were a full 8 points better than the elite teams of this season!  Of course the 2010 Suns were merely a sentence of one of the great paragraphs in NBA history – a six year stretch interrupted by a brief blip where the otherwise brilliant Steve Kerr thought they needed to change – some of the best, most well oiled offensive teams ever.  Indeed while Mike D’Antoni was there, the defense was actually fairly good – the lack of physicality and pace of play obscured the fact that the team did a good job defending without fouling and largely preventing high value shots.  But you look at last year – as the Suns added Josh Childress, and then Vince Carter and Marcin Gortat – and became a more conventional alignment  – the team slipped to a mortal 9th place.  Meanwhile without Stoudemire there to provide any meaningful resistance – the defense actually DID start to stink.  This year it’s just depressing how far it has fallen.  The Suns are a mere 17th in pace, and now a sick sad 23rd in offense.  A Steve Nash team 23rd in offense?  92 points per game?  SIXTEEN POINTS WORSE than 2010?  From first in true shooting to 19th.  It’s a shame – and it feels entirely self inflicted as Steve Kerr laughs maniacally from his TNT position.  I am not sure the old way would have won a title – but we know THIS way won’t, and it ends up being horrendous basketball to boot.  A team that cranks out 60 win seasons – even if you don’t think it is a particular sustainable model – is some SORT of contender?  Shouldn’t Phoenix have ridden that out?  It’s not like they were blown out in their chances to shine.  Sigh.

 

 

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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 18

It’s Tuesday, so it must mean new rankings are here – and this represents a break of sorts with the trade deadline occurring last Thursday.  As usual, the methodology is here.

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Heat 44 17 103.619 (4) 95.452 (4) 1.836 1.195 (29) 11.198
2 Spurs 49 10 103.89 (2) 96.184 (7) 1.72 1.703 (18) 11.129
3 Celtics 43 15 99.955 (13) 93.129 (2) 1.69 1.595 (23) 10.11
4 Lakers 42 19 103.701 (3) 97.135 (9) 1.836 1.403 (27) 9.804
5 Bulls 41 17 99.317 (16) 92.857 (1) 1.69 1.445 (26) 9.594
6 Magic 37 22 101.053 (10) 95.469 (5) 1.661 1.502 (25) 8.747
7 Mavericks 43 16 102.568 (7) 98.254 (13) 1.72 1.9 (12) 7.935
8 Hornets 35 26 98.711 (18) 95.736 (6) 1.779 1.947 (11) 6.701
9 Nuggets 35 26 104.295 (1) 101.81 (21) 1.664 1.981 (10) 6.131
10 Thunder 36 22 102.701 (5) 100.767 (16) 1.75 2.353 (2) 6.037
11 Sixers 30 29 99.496 (15) 97.106 (8) 1.839 1.28 (28) 5.509
12 Knicks 30 27 102.414 (9) 101.167 (19) 1.781 1.631 (22) 4.659
13 Grizzlies 33 28 98.472 (20) 97.662 (10) 1.893 1.646 (19) 4.35
14 Rockets 30 31 102.551 (8) 102.018 (23) 1.836 1.838 (13) 4.207
15 Suns 31 27 102.652 (6) 102.028 (24) 1.69 1.639 (21) 3.952
16 Blazers 33 26 99.629 (14) 99.293 (15) 1.78 1.716 (16) 3.832
17 Hawks 36 24 99.07 (17) 98.221 (12) 1.983 0.868 (30) 3.7
18 Jazz 32 29 100.36 (12) 100.961 (18) 1.721 1.744 (15) 2.864
19 Pacers 26 32 97.267 (22) 98.03 (11) 1.69 1.547 (24) 2.474
20 Bucks 22 36 93.83 (30) 95.273 (3) 1.81 1.995 (9) 2.363
21 Bobcats 26 33 96.627 (25) 98.485 (14) 1.72 1.645 (20) 1.507
22 Warriors 26 32 100.396 (11) 103.067 (28) 1.569 2.178 (6) 1.076
23 Clippers 21 40 97.247 (23) 101.845 (22) 1.721 2.196 (4) -0.68
24 Pistons 22 39 98.534 (19) 103.013 (27) 1.721 2.045 (8) -0.712
25 Kings 15 43 95.451 (26) 100.954 (17) 1.69 1.704 (17) -2.11
26 Timberwolves 14 46 96.697 (24) 102.305 (25) 1.692 1.744 (14) -2.172
27 Raptors 16 44 98.065 (21) 104.281 (29) 1.692 2.178 (5) -2.346
28 Nets 17 43 94.859 (27) 101.574 (20) 1.808 2.08 (7) -2.827
29 Wizards 15 44 94.599 (28) 102.513 (26) 1.72 2.507 (1) -3.687
30 Cavaliers 11 48 94.45 (29) 104.904 (30) 1.78 2.228 (3) -6.446

This week’s observations revolve around the context of some of the big deals and what to look at going forward. In particular:

  • The Celtics moving Perkins would seem to reduce their effectiveness defending the inside.  Meanwhile Green gives them some different skills, and Troy Murphy gives them some offensive firepower.  Will their 13th ranked offense compensate for the perceived defensive dropoff?
  • The Thunder by adding Perk and Mohammed, got bigger and tougher inside.  Also moving Serge Ibaka into the starting lineup should improve their defense.  Will their mediocre 16th ranked defense improve significantly?
  • The Hawks added Kirk Hinrich because they did not want a human traffic cone to be their point guard.  Will their 12th ranked defense improve enough to really make them more than just a no-man’s land team in the East?
  • The Knicks made the highest profile moves of anybody.  The Knicks have been 9th in offense, 19th in defense.  One suspects Melo will add little value to the latter – but can the team’s offense rise up to REALLY make them interesting?
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Dare to be Stupid – Two Teams, Two Big Moves, One Broken Heart

Kendrick Perkins has his limitations.  If you are throwing the ball down to him possession after possession, your offense probably needs a lot of help.  He can’t hit a 20 footer.  But he is a hellacious defender, knew what he was, and a great screen setter.  His scowl was one of the iconic images of this current generation of Celtics.  So his trade hits home a bit.  You hate losing people who have won titles for you.  But you don’t want to overvalue your own guys either.  Perk was not over or underrated, but properly valued by this team.  But he was a player who had trade value.

Celtics get Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic and a protected 2012 first round pick (originally Clippers)

Thunder get Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson

The Celtics are shifting to be a smaller team.  Jeff Green gives their roster some positional flexibility they did not have previously – he can swing between the 3 and 4, and they can deploy lineups like they did in 2008 with James Posey.  However, their ability to defend the post has been substantially weakened.  However, can their strong defensive concept allow then to manage using Glen Davis, an acquired buyout.  The draft pick is useful, whenever it gets cashed in – and the Celtics are in excellent position after this 2 year run is over.  However, for the immediate term, this is a risk.  (The Celtics also freed up some roster spots by dealing Marquis Daniels, Luke Harangody and Semih Erden – but really I have nothing to say)

For the Thunder, this gives them the size underneath they lacked against the Lakers.  Perkins is not a 35 minute a game stalwart, but he is sure as hell a 25-30 minute one when healthy.  He is tough and rugged and able to match up with the bottomless array of West bigs.  Robinson – well he is fun, but I am not sure how he fits in their plans, although he does some of the same things Russell Westbrook does – so their 2nd unit might have use.

However, this is not the end of either team’s moves:

Thunder get Nazr Mohammed

Bobcats get DJ White and Morris Peterson

The Thunder get a useful big man to tag team with Perkins for two players I forgot existed?  Sign Sam Presti up!  Obviously the Peterson deal is a classic salary cap corpse – he might not play a day for the cheapskate Bobcats.  DJ White I remember from the Hoosier days.  He has some ability and potential I suppose – I mean they had to acquire him for some reason, right?

**************************************************************************

The Bobcats also moved their one all-star:

Blazers get Gerald Wallace

Bobcats get Joel Pryzbilla, Sean Marks, Dante Cunningham a 2011 first round pick and a 2013 protected pick

This feels like the Bobcats got a haul.  Really they got Cunningham, two picks and a couple of expiring deals.  I’m sure that will make their fans feel better.  The Blazers get a good small forward with some power forward skills.  Considering their push to make the playoffs – and how soft the Western Conference bottom is at this point, why the hell not.

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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 11

A-ha!  Finally caught up.  Once the photos and narrative of the India experience are culled, I am sure they will sneak onto these pages.  In the meantime, what has happened in the NBA?  The methodology, as always, is here:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Heat 30 9 104.064 (2) 94.12 (3) 1.795 1.303 (25) 13.042
2 Spurs 31 6 104.712 (1) 96.709 (7) 1.419 1.947 (13) 11.368
3 Celtics 28 9 101.167 (11) 93.903 (2) 1.703 1.93 (15) 10.897
4 Magic 25 12 101.171 (10) 95.153 (5) 1.608 1.599 (22) 9.225
5 Lakers 27 11 103.284 (5) 96.884 (9) 1.75 0.638 (29) 8.788
6 Bulls 25 12 98.64 (17) 92.648 (1) 1.608 1.168 (26) 8.767
7 Mavericks 26 10 101.474 (9) 96.962 (10) 1.361 2.657 (2) 8.53
8 Hornets 22 16 97.98 (19) 95.679 (6) 1.75 2.307 (5) 6.357
9 Hawks 25 14 100.608 (13) 96.982 (11) 1.885 0.64 (28) 6.151
10 Thunder 25 13 101.68 (8) 99.538 (17) 1.658 1.856 (16) 5.657
11 Knicks 21 15 103.321 (3) 101.22 (21) 1.847 1.501 (24) 5.449
12 Jazz 25 13 100.923 (12) 99.149 (16) 1.658 1.852 (17) 5.285
13 Blazers 20 18 99.23 (15) 98.477 (14) 2.026 2.042 (10) 4.821
14 Nuggets 20 16 102.639 (6) 101.843 (24) 1.653 1.957 (12) 4.406
15 Sixers 15 22 98.104 (18) 97.744 (12) 1.986 1.6 (21) 3.947
16 Rockets 17 21 101.814 (7) 101.331 (23) 1.934 1.514 (23) 3.93
17 Bucks 14 21 93.192 (30) 95.099 (4) 1.9 3.434 (1) 3.426
18 Grizzlies 17 21 97.302 (20) 98.514 (15) 1.934 1.776 (19) 2.498
19 Suns 15 20 103.299 (4) 105.268 (30) 1.7 2.4 (3) 2.131
20 Pacers 14 20 94.205 (27) 96.711 (8) 1.647 2.013 (11) 1.154
21 Warriors 15 22 99.205 (16) 102.923 (27) 2.081 2.315 (4) 0.678
22 Clippers 12 24 96.875 (23) 100.696 (18) 1.361 1.823 (18) -0.637
23 Bobcats 14 21 95.035 (24) 97.998 (13) 1.6 0.717 (27) -0.645
24 Raptors 13 24 99.575 (14) 104.175 (29) 1.797 1.937 (14) -0.866
25 Pistons 12 25 97.111 (22) 102.353 (25) 1.892 2.125 (7) -1.225
26 Timberwolves 9 29 97.272 (21) 102.901 (26) 1.934 2.076 (9) -1.619
27 Wizards 9 26 94.405 (26) 100.986 (19) 1.8 2.251 (6) -2.53
28 Nets 10 27 93.996 (28) 101.274 (22) 1.892 2.087 (8) -3.299
29 Kings 8 26 94.906 (25) 101.124 (20) 1.338 0.459 (30) -4.421
30 Cavaliers 8 29 93.745 (29) 103.858 (28) 1.892 1.733 (20) -6.489

The Celtics, with their injury issues and post-Christmas letdown have slipped, and suddenly the Heat (who honestly are two points short of a 25 game winning streak or something) look like your clear #1.  I wish I had more insight, but still trying to figure out what happened on this hemisphere the last two weeks!

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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 4

(this covers the events through November 22, 2010)

As the worm turns – here we are again for another batch of power rankings.  What is interesting about how the season has evolved is that early on, it sure felt like a Heat-Lakers oligarchy.  However, the Hornets hot start changed things.  This week the third #1 in four weeks (see here for the methodology):

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Celtics 10 4 103.354 (5) 93.944 (3) 2 2.804 (7) 14.214
2 Heat 8 6 103.69 (4) 95.377 (5) 1.25 3.38 (3) 12.943
3 Spurs 12 1 105.357 (2) 95.998 (6) 1.346 1.551 (20) 12.256
4 Lakers 12 2 108.875 (1) 98.868 (12) 1.5 -0.764 (29) 10.743
5 Hornets 11 2 100.761 (12) 94.026 (4) 1.615 1.812 (17) 10.162
6 Magic 9 4 100.716 (14) 93.552 (2) 1.346 1.558 (19) 10.069
7 Mavericks 8 4 101.559 (10) 96.959 (8) 1.458 3.208 (4) 9.266
8 Bulls 7 4 100.624 (15) 97.05 (9) 1.591 3.032 (6) 8.196
9 Nuggets 7 6 101.936 (9) 100.709 (15) 1.885 3.175 (5) 6.286
10 Bucks 5 8 93.121 (30) 92.447 (1) 1.615 3.987 (2) 6.276
11 Pacers 6 6 98.666 (20) 96.513 (7) 1.458 2.266 (12) 5.877
12 Blazers 8 6 101.296 (11) 99.846 (14) 2 1.688 (18) 5.139
13 Jazz 10 5 99.928 (17) 98.55 (11) 1.867 1.854 (16) 5.099
14 Bobcats 5 8 100.133 (16) 99.086 (13) 1.885 1.861 (15) 4.793
15 Thunder 10 4 102.621 (7) 102.203 (20) 1.5 2.403 (10) 4.32
16 Suns 7 7 104.303 (3) 106.631 (30) 2.25 4.153 (1) 4.076
17 Hawks 8 6 102.752 (6) 101.12 (16) 1.5 0.386 (27) 3.518
18 Sixers 3 10 96.433 (26) 97.677 (10) 1.885 1.938 (14) 2.578
19 Raptors 5 9 99.036 (19) 102.176 (19) 2 2.322 (11) 1.182
20 Rockets 3 10 100.742 (13) 103.996 (28) 2.154 2.123 (13) 1.023
21 Knicks 6 8 102.232 (8) 103.193 (24) 2.25 -0.543 (28) 0.746
22 Grizzlies 5 9 96.649 (25) 101.195 (17) 1.75 2.705 (8) -0.091
23 Warriors 8 7 99.281 (18) 101.796 (18) 1.867 0.504 (26) -0.144
24 Pistons 5 8 98.406 (21) 102.527 (21) 1.885 0.914 (24) -1.322
25 Nets 4 9 98.306 (22) 102.939 (23) 1.885 0.769 (25) -1.979
26 Cavaliers 5 7 96.898 (24) 102.566 (22) 1.75 1.246 (23) -2.672
27 Wizards 4 8 95.655 (28) 103.551 (26) 1.75 1.247 (22) -4.899
28 Timberwolves 4 11 94.591 (29) 103.665 (27) 2.1 1.327 (21) -5.648
29 Kings 4 9 97.193 (23) 103.401 (25) 1.346 -1.232 (30) -6.094
30 Clippers 2 13 95.858 (27) 106.451 (29) 1.633 2.634 (9) -6.326

What to make of things?

  • The Lakers being 4th is a matter probably of undervaluing them.  Per usual, their schedule is frontloaded with patsies and home games, as their strength of schedule seems to indicate.  As such, their tough games are ahead of them.  The eye test puts them higher than 4th, especially when Bynum returns – but right now the chances to score brownie points have not been there.
  • The Celtics came off of a couple of curious losses to the Thunder and the Raptors (though the Raptors to date have actually been fairly not-horrible), but then came the absolute destruction of the Hawks, whose offense is starting to fade a bit.  The Celtics defense remains as stout as ever, 3rd in the league.  What has improved in the early going this season is the offense, off to a sharp 5th after last year’s more pedestrian numbers.  The real key to this is the turnover rate – which has dropped from their usual “among the worst in the league” to a fairly manageable 13th this season.  In spite of them continuing to be one of the worst teams in the league at creating looks at the bucket (offensive rebounding still not good), the reduction in turnovers has given their top ranked true shooting team a chance to actually convert opportunities into points.
  • One of the interesting early season pleasant surprises have been the Indiana Pacers.  Considering their lack of true top shelf talent, that they are 11th, even early in the season, ahead of teams like the Jazz or Thunder, is a pleasant harbinger for the future.  True, their record is only 6-6, but their defense, ranked 7th in the league, has given their team a chance to compete.  This of course was shown most latently in their shocking win in Miami Monday.  How have they done it, despite a pedestrian offense.  Jim O’Brien has his flaws, but he has always been able to coach defense.  To his credit, the team has shown spunk on that end, despite what looks to be a lack of athleticism for the most part.  They have a competitive 9th ranked TS% defense – which is surprising considering they hack quite a bit (26th in the league at fouling) and are a mediocre three point defense.  What has happened is that they – even after trading Troy Murphy – have become a superior shot prevention squad.  They force turnovers at a solid league average level – and have the 4th best defensive rebound rate.  Add those together and they are a strong 8th place in preventing looks per possession – augmenting their strong shooting defense.  If the defense keeps up, one would think some of their offensive flaws most notably their turnovers and their absolute inability to get to the line, could lead to some pleasant surprises in the win column as well.