Meadow Muffins of the Mind

The droppings of some guy's imagination.

Tag: Browns

NFL Power Rankings – Week 9

Just when the Patriots seem to be growing, they get whomped by the Cleveland Browns.  The Seahawks show some serious mirage-properties.  The Bengals look finished.  Yep, it’s the NFL wildness.  As always the rankings are a combination of scoring margin and opponents scoring margin against other teams.

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Titans 5 3 0 13.786 2.942 7 1
2 Steelers 6 2 0 13.03 4.499 3 2
3 Packers 6 3 0 10.734 1.067 20 7
4 Jets 6 2 0 10.097 1.847 13 4
5 Giants 6 2 0 9.004 0.848 21 10
6 Colts 5 3 0 8.97 0.658 23 6
7 Chargers 4 5 0 8.225 1.781 15 5
8 Falcons 6 2 0 8.126 1.501 17 8
9 Eagles 5 3 0 8.052 4.209 5 9
10 Lions 2 6 0 7.917 4.917 1 11
11 Ravens 6 2 0 7.482 1.232 19 13
12 Patriots 6 2 0 7.306 1.837 14 3
13 Chiefs 5 3 0 6.971 0.471 25 12
14 Browns 3 5 0 6.113 4.863 2 21
15 Raiders 5 4 0 5.801 0.634 24 14
16 Saints 6 3 0 5.299 -1.423 31 19
17 Vikings 3 5 0 2.401 2.151 11 15
18 Redskins 4 4 0 2.204 2.329 10 18
19 Bears 5 3 0 1.843 -1.345 30 16
20 Texans 4 4 0 1.656 4.469 4 20
21 Dolphins 4 4 0 1.518 3.33 6 17
22 Bengals 2 6 0 0.134 1.259 18 23
23 Rams 4 4 0 0.076 -1.518 32 22
24 Bucs 5 3 0 -2.166 0.209 28 28
25 49ers 2 6 0 -3.167 0.208 29 26
26 Broncos 2 6 0 -3.619 2.443 9 27
27 Seahawks 4 4 0 -3.998 0.252 27 24
28 Cardinals 3 5 0 -4.579 1.577 16 30
29 Cowboys 1 7 0 -4.768 1.951 12 25
30 Jaguars 4 4 0 -5.069 0.806 22 29
31 Bills 0 8 0 -5.737 2.888 8 31
32 Panthers 1 7 0 -10.036 0.464 26 32

Some of the key observations as the Thursday night schedule starts to heat up?

  • Holy blowout!  The Patriots getting demolished by the Browns sent them plummeting to 12th from 3rd.  I am not sure they are this bad, but they do not have a ton of margin for error as their receivers gel.  That said, the Browns are THIS close to being a good team.
  • Ditto for 10th ranked Detroit.  Another tough loss to a good team.  They are THIS close to breaking through with all that talent on the offensive side of the ball.
  • Dallas and Carolina might consider taking the rest of the season off.
  • Seattle falls to 4-4 with a destructive loss to the surging Giants.  On the surface the loss is not a shock – but could this start the trend of Pete Carroll teams falling down the toilet as the season evolves?

NFL Power Rankings – Week 7

After six weeks, the Steelers fall from the #1 perch.  Their controversial escape from Miami motivates this to a degree, but really a team which has been covertly piling up good result after good result is now at the top.  As always, 50% a team’s scoring margin, 50% the opponents margin against other teams … and so, a very AFC heavy Top 10 …

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Titans 5 2 0 15.577 2.542 13 2
2 Steelers 5 1 0 15.546 4.671 1 1
3 Jets 5 1 0 12.014 0.597 23 3
4 Patriots 5 1 0 11.231 2.856 11 5
5 Colts 4 2 0 8.975 0.308 24 6
6 Chiefs 4 2 0 8.242 0.158 26 11
7 Falcons 5 2 0 8.162 1.448 19 7
8 Giants 5 2 0 7.851 3.208 9 9
9 Ravens 5 2 0 7.36 2.502 14 4
10 Chargers 2 5 0 7.173 1.387 20 13
11 Eagles 4 3 0 6.651 2.544 12 8
12 Packers 4 3 0 6.108 0.18 25 12
13 Lions 1 5 0 6.043 3.543 7 10
14 Bears 4 3 0 4.798 1.583 18 14
15 Vikings 2 4 0 4.321 3.404 8 15
16 Redskins 4 3 0 4.048 2.976 10 17
17 Cowboys 1 5 0 2.824 3.574 6 18
18 Browns 2 5 0 2.744 4.173 3 25
19 Texans 4 2 0 2.711 3.878 5 21
20 Seahawks 4 2 0 2.204 -1.713 31 19
21 Dolphins 3 3 0 1.878 4.128 4 24
22 Raiders 3 4 0 1.731 -0.34 29 27
23 Bengals 2 4 0 1.628 0.794 22 22
24 Rams 3 4 0 0.379 -0.014 27 23
25 Saints 4 3 0 -0.457 -3.207 32 20
26 Broncos 2 5 0 -1.494 4.292 2 16
27 49ers 1 6 0 -3.357 1.643 16 26
28 Bucs 4 2 0 -4.035 -0.201 28 28
29 Cardinals 3 3 0 -5.422 2.369 15 29
30 Jaguars 3 4 0 -8.195 1.59 17 30
31 Panthers 1 5 0 -9.61 -1.61 30 31
32 Bills 0 6 0 -10.056 1.028 21 32

Some observations from this week’s madness?

  • One of my friends on Facebook complained about the Eagles being rated lower than the Falcons despite a head to head victory.  My standard response is that the model does not know how good the teams are.  Each week’s results reveal that – so an early victory gets better or worse with age.  This obviously is unfair to injury cases, but you have to take that as it is.  Also games like Detroit’s 44-6 win over the Rams and this weeks Raiders pasting of Denver skew a bit.
  • The plunge of the week was Denver sliding to 26.  I don’t think much needs to be said.
  • Big mover is Cleveland, with as stunning a result as Oakland’s.  And, to be fair, they have competed fairly well – and Peyton Hillis has been a covert fantasy hero.  At the top of the charts, the mover is Kansas City – who week after week is proving that they might really be a good team.  Certainly nobody else in the AFC West is.
  • Chargers and Cowboys are the poster boys for punching below their weight.  The Chargers in particular have the fundamentals (#1 offense, #1 defense) of an elite team, but the wins have not followed.  Their #10 ranking is fair (the model sees what it sees) but obviously they have the losses to prove any sort of anecdotal “they suck” case.

NFL Power Rankings – Week 2

(unrelated note: two more mobile feasts added to the food truck page)

Well, if we can come up with a model to rank college football teams, might as well do the same with the NFL.  The nice thing with the NFL is 1) two games in the books for everyone so strength of schedule numbers are cleaner and 2) no neutral site games to worry about aside from the Halloween 49ers-Broncos game in London.  With 2 weeks of datapoints in the books, where do we shake down?

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 Steelers 2 0 0 36.75 28 1
2 Falcons 1 1 0 23.75 9.5 7
3 Texans 2 0 0 23.25 15 2
4 Packers 2 0 0 19.5 0.75 20
5 Chiefs 2 0 0 19 12.75 3
6 Colts 1 1 0 18.5 9.75 6
7 Chargers 1 1 0 17 6.25 11
8 Jets 1 1 0 12.75 6.25 11
9 Titans 1 1 0 12.5 4 13
10 Eagles 1 1 0 12.5 12.75 3
11 Browns 0 2 0 11 11.75 5
12 Broncos 1 1 0 8.5 1.75 15
13 Bears 2 0 0 5 -2.75 22
14 Vikings 0 2 0 4.75 7.5 9
15 Bucs 2 0 0 4 -5.75 26
16 Patriots 1 1 0 3.75 2 14
17 Ravens 1 1 0 3.25 1.75 15
18 Redskins 1 1 0 3 1.5 18
19 Seahawks 1 1 0 2.5 -3.25 24
20 Jaguars 1 1 0 -0.5 6.75 10
21 Lions 0 2 0 -0.5 1.75 15
22 Cowboys 0 2 0 -3.75 1 19
23 Dolphins 2 0 0 -4.5 -12.5 30
24 Bills 0 2 0 -5.25 9 8
25 Bengals 1 1 0 -5.75 -3 23
26 Saints 2 0 0 -7 -12.75 31
27 Cardinals 1 1 0 -11.375 -0.5 21
28 Giants 1 1 0 -13.5 -9.75 29
29 Raiders 1 1 0 -15.75 -6 27
30 49ers 0 2 0 -16.5 -4.25 25
31 Panthers 0 2 0 -20 -8.75 28
32 Rams 0 2 0 -26.625 -25.375 32

A few thoughts:

  • The methodology is the same as for college football.  As such, the Steelers being at the top is not a surprise.  Two solid wins over teams that kicked the tar out of its other opponent.  The Rams being the worst is a mild surprise given how pathetic the Bills have actually played compared to the Rams decent results.  But the Rams have played a couple of lousy teams and have little to show for it.
  • The two 0-2 teams with positive rankings are the Vikings and Browns.  The Browns seem a bit unsustainable, only because I am not sure the results of Kansas City and Tampa in the future will buoy the Browns so.  The Vikings however did play two good teams New Orleans and Miami (who I sense might be punching above their 23rd rank weight).
  • The Packers schedule is light like the Dolphins I suppose, but the Packers have crushed it so far – the Dolphins have been very impressive defensively, but it is hard to keep winning 15-10 games.
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