Tag Archives: Cardinals

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2012 NFL Update #3

The problem with having something giant magically pop up in your life is that the old things slip – like putting an NFL update together in time.  Alas, my neglect of this – especially with the league going to Thursday games.  Obviously with Arizona’s execrable offensive line performance, the lofty perch the Cardinals hold in the pre-Week 4 power rankings will change.  At the same time, there is more of the league to observe, so here is a quick update with the rankings prior to Thursday.  Note that if we added Thursday to the soup the Rams would be #7 and the Cardinals would be #4.

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Texans 4 0 0.627 (4) 21.083 (1) 29
2 Falcons 4 0 0.67 (3) 18.875 (3) 29
3 Cardinals 4 0 0.75 (1) 16.542 (5) 29
4 Ravens 3 1 0.625 (5) 16.25 (6) 27
5 Bears 3 1 0.604 (8) 13.063 (8) 25
6 Patriots 2 2 0.609 (7) 17.625 (4) 24
7 Eagles 3 1 0.677 (2) 3.938 (15) 24
8 Vikings 3 1 0.578 (10) 6.854 (11) 23
9 49ers 3 1 0.623 (6) 15.542 (7) 22
10 Broncos 2 2 0.563 (11) 19.375 (2) 21
11 Bengals 3 1 0.56 (12) 3.875 (16) 19
12 Rams 2 2 0.503 (15) 4.125 (14) 19
13 Seahawks 2 2 0.594 (9) 8 (10) 19
14 Packers 2 2 0.466 (21) 10.646 (9) 18
15 Chargers 3 1 0.554 (13) 3.667 (17) 15
16 Dolphins 1 3 0.499 (16) 4.458 (13) 14
17 Cowboys 2 2 0.498 (17) 2.646 (19) 13
18 Colts 1 2 0.479 (18) -3.333 (26) 12
19 Giants 2 2 0.448 (22) 6.458 (12) 10
20 Jaguars 1 3 0.552 (14) -1.917 (23) 9
21 Lions 1 3 0.429 (23) -2.188 (24) 9
22 Steelers 1 2 0.379 (28) 0 (20) 6
23 Redskins 2 2 0.401 (26) 2.708 (18) 6
24 Jets 2 2 0.467 (20) -2.208 (25) 5
25 Bills 2 2 0.388 (27) -5.042 (28) 3
26 Titans 1 3 0.469 (19) -7.792 (29) 3
27 Browns 0 4 0.411 (25) -3.375 (27) 3
28 Chiefs 1 3 0.417 (24) -7.917 (30) 2
29 Bucs 1 3 0.313 (30) -0.271 (21) 2
30 Panthers 1 3 0.307 (31) -1.188 (22) 1
31 Raiders 1 3 0.368 (29) -9.75 (32) 0
32 Saints 0 4 0.188 (32) -8.042 (31) 0

Some of the usual observations:

  • Despite the intro – the Cardinals 4-0(1) start is still pretty remarkable.  What is particular fascinating is that the entire NFC West is .500 or better – just think that two seasons ago this was the sickest joke in playoff football history.  Season is long, so there is time for this to change, but still.
  • Patriots sagging at 1-2 hung up a 45 point second half over the poor Buffalo Bills.  2-2 is not “fixed” by any means, but the 4th rated scoring margin portends to bigger things ahead.
  • We have talked about the NFC East as a surprise, but clearly the NFL’s biggest shock so far is the 3-1 start enjoyed by the Minnesota Vikings – who were largely expected to stink.  Adrian Peterson’s return has helped a ton, but really it is the development of Christian Ponder into an adequate NFL quarterback and a defense which has largely been good enough.  They have not piled up any of the Bears/Vikings games yet, but a win over Detroit at least for now seems like a nice feather.
  • The disappointment?  Well – it has to be the Saints, though last week represented progress.  Frankly, in prime time with Drew Brees ready to set a record, it would be hard to envision them losing to San Diego – although their defense is horrific enough to allow that possibility.  Can the Saints go 10-2 the rest of the way?  I wouldn’t put it past them, but clearly they are up against it now in the playoff chase.
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2012 NFL Update #2

Well, that was something, wasn’t it?  What I can say about the ghastly prime time games involving the Patriots, Ravens, Packers and Seahawks is that, well – it’s unpredictable.  Cris Collinsworth, while the best football analyst on television is also the spearhead of the most visible broadcast, was at his wits end trying not to blurt out that this is pretty ridiculous.  What is fascinating about the scab refs is not that they have screwed up pass interference calls or 100 mph sort of snap judgments – but that they have been so reliably bad at the easy stuff.  We see balls mis-spotted, we see fumble calls being egregiously blown.  The refs are screwing up way worse than you’d expect.  It obviously is reflecting in a product, which has become much more compelling, but in a rather creepy dangerous sort of “what’s gonna happen next” sort of way.

That said, there has been 3 weeks of football in the can, and thus more trends and such.  As the season goes on, the fluctuations in the rankings will shrink – but right now the schedule strength causes a lot of flopping about.  So what of Week 3?

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Falcons 3 0 0.75 (3) 25.667 (1) 30
2 Texans 3 0 0.681 (5) 25.667 (1) 29
3 Cardinals 3 0 0.847 (1) 21 (3) 29
4 Seahawks 2 1 0.764 (2) 16.917 (6) 28
5 Ravens 2 1 0.639 (7) 17 (5) 25
6 Broncos 1 2 0.599 (8) 20.917 (4) 24
7 Jets 2 1 0.553 (14) 10.917 (10) 23
8 Cowboys 2 1 0.678 (6) 8.625 (13) 23
9 Patriots 1 2 0.589 (10) 16 (7) 22
10 Eagles 2 1 0.692 (4) 2.167 (20) 22
11 49ers 2 1 0.567 (11) 9.5 (12) 20
12 Vikings 2 1 0.556 (13) 4.333 (16) 19
13 Packers 1 2 0.53 (15) 13.417 (8) 17
14 Chargers 2 1 0.592 (9) 5.583 (15) 16
15 Giants 2 1 0.508 (16) 11.292 (9) 16
16 Dolphins 1 2 0.502 (17) 8.333 (14) 14
17 Steelers 1 2 0.389 (24) 3.333 (17) 13
18 Bills 2 1 0.484 (18) 3.25 (18) 12
19 Jaguars 1 2 0.561 (12) 2.667 (19) 12
20 Bears 2 1 0.458 (20) 9.917 (11) 12
21 Bucs 1 2 0.444 (21) 1.208 (21) 10
22 Bengals 2 1 0.47 (19) -1.083 (23) 9
23 Chiefs 1 2 0.436 (22) -3.25 (24) 8
24 Colts 1 2 0.433 (23) -4.083 (26) 6
25 Raiders 1 2 0.363 (25) -7.25 (28) 4
26 Lions 1 2 0.347 (28) -6.917 (27) 4
27 Titans 1 2 0.363 (25) -14.5 (31) 3
28 Rams 1 2 0.319 (29) -0.083 (22) 3
29 Browns 0 3 0.361 (27) -8.417 (29) 2
30 Redskins 1 2 0.242 (30) -3.583 (25) 2
31 Panthers 1 2 0.224 (31) -9.042 (30) 1
32 Saints 0 3 0.069 (32) -14.75 (32) 0

Some of the quick thoughts from the week past:

  • You will hear all sorts of doomsday stats about the Saints 0-3 start and how so few teams have made the playoffs after an 0-3 beginning.  Of course these stats are nonsense as far proving that a bad start is fatal – it is more that 0-3 is a harbinger that your team sucks, and THAT is why the 0-3 start is problematic.  It is a sign of league balance that there are only two winless sides at this point.  The Saints start has been particularly troubling as the Redskins, Panthers and Chiefs are by no means a murderer’s row of opposition.  The Browns – well, we knew this all along.
  • The Cardinals as of today certainly earned their lofty ranking.  The dominant victory over the Eagles showed another game where they allowed fewer than 20 points.  The defense – with studs like Patrick Peterson and Darnell Dockett – has been championship timber so far even with the offense being relatively uninspiring.  If this sounds like a familiar formula to win the NFC West, well …
  • On the other hand, the Falcons and Texans are passing the eye test much easier.  The Falcons – football’s boring, stable boyfriend – have shown some duende and force in the early going not yet seen.  Do they have the horsepower to not just be a quality team but a truly fear inducing one?  The Texans, they are just so balanced across the board – although that division might end up inflating their record slightly.  But you can’t quibble with the results so far.
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2012 NFL Update #1

Ahoy mateys! Finally, with Week 2 in the books and all 32 teams having 2 games in the bag – we have enough schedule data to start putting some power rankings together. The methodology and consistent updates are here per usual, but what does the first snapshot of the season look like?

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 49ers 2 0 1 (1) 21.75 (5) 30
2 Cardinals 2 0 0.938 (2) 30.5 (2) 30
3 Seahawks 1 1 0.813 (3) 21.25 (6) 28
4 Packers 1 1 0.763 (5) 20 (7) 27
5 Broncos 1 1 0.75 (6) 26.5 (3) 26
6 Eagles 2 0 0.688 (7) 19.25 (8) 26
7 Falcons 2 0 0.688 (7) 15 (10) 24
8 Texans 2 0 0.625 (10) 36.5 (1) 22
9 Ravens 1 1 0.688 (7) 24.5 (4) 22
10 Steelers 1 1 0.563 (12) 16.5 (9) 20
11 Lions 1 1 0.813 (3) 10.5 (13) 19
12 Dolphins 1 1 0.5 (15) 14 (11) 17
13 Bears 1 1 0.563 (12) 6.25 (16) 15
14 Rams 1 1 0.5 (15) 8.25 (14) 15
15 Jets 1 1 0.438 (18) 11.5 (12) 14
16 Patriots 1 1 0.563 (12) 4.5 (18) 13
17 Cowboys 1 1 0.613 (11) 3.75 (20) 13
18 Bucs 1 1 0.438 (18) 5.25 (17) 12
19 Giants 1 1 0.45 (17) -1.75 (23) 11
20 Jaguars 0 2 0.313 (22) 4 (19) 9
21 Chargers 2 0 0.375 (21) 3.5 (21) 9
22 Colts 1 1 0.438 (18) -6.5 (26) 7
23 Raiders 0 2 0.313 (22) -4 (25) 6
24 Bengals 1 1 0.313 (22) -6.75 (27) 5
25 Browns 0 2 0.313 (22) -12 (29) 3
26 Bills 1 1 0.25 (28) -10.5 (28) 2
27 Redskins 1 1 0.238 (30) 7 (15) 2
28 Titans 0 2 0.313 (22) -14.5 (31) 1
29 Panthers 1 1 0.188 (31) 0.5 (22) 1
30 Chiefs 0 2 0.313 (22) -17 (32) 0
31 Vikings 1 1 0.25 (28) -13 (30) 0
32 Saints 0 2 0 (32) -3.75 (24) 0

Obviously – as one could surmise – there is not a lot of data here, just two weeks of quality to evaluate, but that doesn’t mean that there are not things to discuss.

  • Ahoy NFC West!  The 49ers we knew should be good.  But the authoritative wins over Green Bay and Detroit were eye openers.  The combined 2-0 record of opponents obviously overstates the schedule, but not that much.  Seattle and Arizona also have 2-0 schedules.  Arizona’s win at New England ties the Saints loss to the Redskins as the season’s biggest surprise to date.
  • The Saints at #32 are obviously the big surprise in the other direction.  The losses, and truly hideous defensive performances, have taken a lot of the bloom off of the Super Bowl contending rose.  Obviously the coaching staff shakeup has caused some strife – but still, these were not particularly distinguished teams they have lost to.
  • Both Andrew Luck and RG3 look like the real things.  RG3′s results are better so far yes, but his team is more talented, and it is easier I think for a dual threat quarterback to have an early impact.  Griffin’s cool and decision making have been excellent, but Luck has had a lot more put on his shoulders.  The Colts are further behind in development, and he has been given more of the finished NFL offense (somehow I suspect Griffin running option out of the pistol will not last if Shanahan had his druthers).
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2012 MLB Update #4 – The Home Stretch

First, apologies in advance for the lack of attentiveness and diligence with putting together baseball missives – indeed the season has flown by, and the Red Sox-Dodgers blockbuster clearly announced the exit of Boston from the pennant chase and reconfigured the race for 2012 and beyond.  Or did it really?  A bit more on this, but first, the rankings as of today:

Rank Team W L Pythag SOS Recent RecRank Total
1 Saint Louis Cardinals 71 57 0.61 (1) 0.51 (2) 0.573 3 0.564
2 Atlanta Braves 73 56 0.579 (5) 0.496 (20) 0.616 2 0.564
3 Tampa Bay Rays 70 58 0.57 (6) 0.493 (23) 0.625 1 0.563
4 Washington Nationals 77 50 0.6 (2) 0.505 (6) 0.561 4 0.555
5 Chicago White Sox 71 56 0.565 (8) 0.505 (7) 0.557 5 0.542
6 Texas Rangers 76 52 0.593 (3) 0.496 (19) 0.536 11 0.542
7 Cincinnati Reds 78 52 0.568 (7) 0.508 (3) 0.537 10 0.538
8 New York Yankees 74 54 0.585 (4) 0.484 (30) 0.538 9 0.536
9 Oakland Athletics 70 57 0.541 (9) 0.493 (25) 0.544 8 0.526
10 Detroit Tigers 69 58 0.528 (12) 0.495 (22) 0.552 6 0.525
11 Milwaukee Brewers 60 67 0.507 (17) 0.514 (1) 0.545 7 0.522
12 Los Angeles Dodgers 69 60 0.53 (11) 0.507 (5) 0.523 14 0.52
13 Arizona Diamondbacks 64 65 0.527 (13) 0.505 (8) 0.525 13 0.519
14 San Francisco Giants 71 57 0.53 (10) 0.501 (11) 0.506 16 0.512
15 Seattle Mariners 62 67 0.504 (18) 0.488 (28) 0.533 12 0.508
16 Boston Red Sox 62 67 0.527 (14) 0.493 (24) 0.49 17 0.503
17 Pittsburgh Pirates 68 60 0.51 (16) 0.507 (4) 0.463 23 0.493
18 San Diego Padres 60 70 0.452 (23) 0.504 (9) 0.513 15 0.49
19 Anaheim Angels 66 62 0.52 (15) 0.492 (26) 0.451 25 0.488
20 Philadelphia Phillies 61 67 0.478 (19) 0.5 (12) 0.479 19 0.485
21 Kansas City Royals 56 71 0.451 (24) 0.499 (15) 0.484 18 0.478
22 Baltimore Orioles 70 57 0.46 (22) 0.488 (27) 0.474 20 0.474
23 Colorado Rockies 52 75 0.423 (25) 0.5 (13) 0.474 21 0.466
24 Minnesota Twins 52 76 0.41 (27) 0.496 (21) 0.466 22 0.457
25 New York Mets 59 69 0.464 (21) 0.497 (18) 0.41 27 0.457
26 Chicago Cubs 49 78 0.4 (28) 0.499 (14) 0.456 24 0.452
27 Miami Marlins 58 71 0.411 (26) 0.498 (16) 0.439 26 0.449
28 Toronto Blue Jays 57 70 0.47 (20) 0.488 (29) 0.367 30 0.442
29 Cleveland Indians 55 73 0.386 (29) 0.498 (17) 0.378 28 0.421
30 Houston Astros 40 88 0.338 (30) 0.502 (10) 0.369 29 0.403

If we went and projected records (using ranking for rest of season), your playoff seeds:

American League:

  1. Texas Rangers (94-68)
  2. New York Yankees (92-70)
  3. Chicago White Sox (90-72)
  4. Oakland Athletics (88-74)
  5. Detroit Tigers (87-75)

National League

  1. Washington Nationals (96-66)
  2. Cincinnati Reds (95-67)
  3. San Francisco Giants (88-74)
  4. Atlanta Braves (92-70)
  5. Saint Louis Cardinals (90-72)
  • Obviously, the Nationals’ magical season has continued unabated.  There is the Stephen Strasburg drama – and the Nationals decision is defensible, although I definitely disagree – but even without him their rotation is formidable.  That said, a rotation sans Strasburg and a fairly pedestrian lineup could spell a short stay in October.
  • On the other hand, the Cardinals are still in a strong chase for the wild card.  The Giants, Dodgers, Pirates are all still very much in the chase.  That said, unlike the Nationals, the Cardinals seem the total package.  Their league best pythagorean speaks to just how strong their peripherals are.  The wins have not showed up frequently enough, but this is a seriously dangerous outfit if they can find their way into the main draw.  The Braves-Cardinals wild card game might be the most dramatic single game of the entire NL playoffs.
  • The Dodgers as of now rate as an 86-76 team, but this is without considering the fascinating trade which netted them Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford.  Is there reason to think these changes will help them to close the gap with either the Giants or Cards?  Well, Adrian Gonzalez is going to have a huge impact – not just because he is a good ballplayer, but because he is replacing James Loney – who is providing middle infield level production at first freakin base.  Anytime you can bounce back from true replacement level to fringy elite, there can be an outsized impact in the wash.  As a Red Sox fan though, it is hard to see Josh Beckett bouncing back to more than 4/5 sort of starter though.  The pitches don’t work anymore and his own approach to pitching has never been “crafty”.
  • The deal guarantees nothing for Boston obviously.  Prospects are dudes who haven’t delivered in a major league capacity – that is the point.  The only major league body they have is James Loney, who is barely that.  That said, the prospects Boston did get were among the best in the Dodgers’ system – both De La Rosa and Webster have been graded very favorability as arms with significant promise.  That the Red Sox got actual prospects in a salary dump is a small miracle.  The Red Sox have some of their future back – which says good things about Ben Cherington as GM – if the bizarre, status obsessed ownership lets him do his thing.  But can these owners leave well enough alone and let winning move the needle?  Well, that’s the allotment of optimism I have for my day.
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NFL Power Rankings – Week 5

In a strange week of upsets and strange blowouts, we get strange impacts.  The formula is pretty simple, a team’s rating is:

50% their scoring margin (with blowout margins getting less credit)

50% opponents scoring margin against other teams (i.e. factoring out the results against that team)

The Steelers have been #1 all season with the combination of schedule strength and results.  With this being their bye week, not much changed.  There were some shakeups though:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Steelers 3 1 0 20.917 10.229 1 1
2 Jets 4 1 0 14.6 2.4 12 2
3 Titans 3 2 0 12.842 4.042 6 7
4 Ravens 4 1 0 12.45 6.35 2 4
5 Colts 3 2 0 11.383 2.283 13 9
6 Patriots 3 1 0 11.073 0.885 18 6
7 Falcons 4 1 0 10.1 0 26 10
8 Packers 3 2 0 9.963 1.863 16 8
9 Chiefs 3 1 0 9.625 2.875 8 3
10 Lions 1 4 0 8.829 4.929 3 21
11 Chargers 2 3 0 7.988 -0.613 27 5
12 Bears 4 1 0 7.633 1.933 15 18
13 Eagles 3 2 0 6.325 0.475 22 11
14 Giants 3 2 0 5.675 2.675 10 24
15 Broncos 2 3 0 4.158 4.458 5 13
16 Vikings 1 3 0 3.604 2.854 9 23
17 Cowboys 1 3 0 3.531 3.281 7 14
18 Redskins 3 2 0 3.033 2.233 14 12
19 Browns 1 4 0 2.325 4.725 4 19
20 Bengals 2 3 0 2.067 0.367 24 16
21 Seahawks 2 2 0 0.391 -0.859 29 17
22 Bucs 3 1 0 -0.979 -1.229 30 25
23 Texans 3 2 0 -1.425 0.775 20 15
24 Rams 2 3 0 -2.454 -1.904 31 20
25 Raiders 2 3 0 -3.125 0.075 25 28
26 Saints 3 2 0 -3.763 -4.563 32 22
27 Dolphins 2 2 0 -3.99 0.76 21 26
28 Jaguars 3 2 0 -4.15 0.45 23 27
29 49ers 0 5 0 -6.196 2.504 11 29
30 Cardinals 3 2 0 -6.338 1.313 17 30
31 Panthers 0 5 0 -11.033 -0.833 28 32
32 Bills 0 5 0 -12.525 0.875 19 31

The noteworthy items?

  • The Lions are almost certainly not a Top 10 team, but a 44-6 result will do that for you.  Mix some close results against decent teams in … the long run ought to solve this – but we have not reached the long run yet.
  • Chiefs fall to 9, but they do look like a Top 10 defense at least against the Colts.  Matt Cassel though does not smell like a QB for this caliber of team though.
  • Three 3-2 teams in the bottom 8.  When you don’t beat anybody who is demonstrably good, this will happen.  Saints are better than this – I am not sure the Cardinals and Jags are though.
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Divisionals and The Conference Finals

I do not have the notes in front of me (nor the time to research) if this has been the least competitive playoff tournament in NFL history.  That said, it’s pretty darn uncompetitive.  Eight games in two weekends – only two true crackers, although certainly compelling.  One thing that we discover again though from the divisionals was the power of the bye.  It is easy to rally behind good looking wildcard winners – but bye winners get them for a reason.  Some quick thoughts:

Saints 45, Cardinals 14 – I tuned out at halftime.  This was a royal butt kicking, a demonstration of the Saints ridiculous speed, and the Cardinals pathetic defense.  80 points in 3 playoff halves does not a Super Bowl Champion make.  While Reggie Bush is a poor man’s Joshua Cribbs with a better agent, he had a humongous impact.  Really this was a good team that depends on speed, letting it loose on turf.  The Saints defense while not great, is excellent at front running.

Colts 20, Ravens 3 – The Ravens successfully threw the ball downfield on their first drive then stopped trying the rest of the way.  Their offense looked constipated and hopelessly dependent on Ray Rice, and had none of the nasty up front they showed against the Patriots.  Flacco was not especially good, but the game plan was really really mediocre.  I’m not sure John Harbaugh was even awake.  On the other side, the Colts speedy defense is built to eat this sort of vanilla crap up.  The Colts were so untested defensively that the offense did not have to be great, aside from a key drive at the end of the half.  Really a perfect result – a win where they held back tactically – really have to consider this great fortune.

Vikings 34, Cowboys 3 - Karma can be a bitch, and the Vikings blatantly running up the score in the 4th might come back to haunt them.  However, this does not discount what a tremendous game they played.  Favre of course was excellent – his first TD pass was beautiful and his little move to avoid the sack for the 2nd TD was savvy also.  The defense was dominant, stopping anything the Cowboys tried inside and giving Tony Romo so little time, I can’t even blame him for his performance.  The Cowboys did not go downfield – but I don’t know how much time they had to make any sort of 15-25 yard route develop!  The end runs by Felix Jones were the only plays they hit consistently, but that was not nearly enough.

Jets 17, Chargers 14 – The downside of being a defensively oriented, possession minimizing team is that it is hard to blow an opponent away.  The upside of course, is that it is hard to be blown out.  This game had a classic arc, akin to the Patriots highway robbery of the Chargers in 2006.  The Chargers executed quite the ass whoopin in the first half yardage wise.  They were moving the ball without a ton of difficulty while the Jets looked completely overmatched offensively.  However, with Nate Kaeding’s gakked 36 yarder, the Chargers could only take a 7-0 lead with them into halftime.  Sure the lead LOOKED huge because of the Jets incompetence on offense, and inability on paper to scheme their way from behind.  But it is still a 1 possession game – all you need is a play and some luck.  The break came from the Rivers pick on his side of the field, and suddenly the Jets had the short field which they cashed into the go-ahead TD.  Adding Shonn Greene’s run to make it 17-7, the Jets then had some luck when they managed to hang on to a perfect onsides kick.  Just like that, AFC title game bound.  Also, much should be said about Mark Sanchez – the rookie is a clear role player in this offense, but has made a lot of third down plays to keep drives going – and that is a hat tip in his general direction.

So what about the two games Sunday?

Colts 24, Jets 10 – Cinderella stops right here.  The Jets strength defensively is getting pressure on Manning and sealing off the outside with Revis.  Manning, as a terrific veteran QB, is adept at breaking the blitz down and finding the open receivers – heck, Rivers made the big mistakes last week, but still put up numbers showing that the Jets can be sliced apart if the line can keep the QB upright.  However, Dallas Clark is the key here.  The Colts can slice the middle of the field better than the Chargers (and definitely the Bengals) with their TE/Slot game – and that takes Darrelle Revis out of the equation.  The Jets will have to be judicious with their overloading and blitzing and their up the middle guys need to be able to match up.  Good luck with that.  The Colts defense will not be tested in the same manner – though the Jets physicality against their speed is an interesting matchup.  If the Jets had a reliable downfield game, this could be interesting – alas.

Saints 31, Vikings 28 – Should I be cynical and assume that Brett Favre will make one backbreaking interception at some point in the proceedings?  He has not done that virtually all year – so maybe the balanced offense will help here.  Adrian Peterson has been excellent this season if your standard is not skewed by Chris Johnson.  However the shock and awe has not been there.  Will that be a problem against the Saints – I don’t know.  The Saints speed in the backfield and aggressive pass rush make for a good team with a lead.  They will allow points.  So that leaves the Vikings stout D against the Saints wildly imaginative offense.  The Saints in the dome are hard to deal with, and the down hill inside running that the Vikings are so good at stopping is not essential to the Saint attack.  Can the Vikings stop their speed?  They will give it a go, but not quite.

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Wild Card Weekend and The Divisionals

Full disclosure – I had a previous commitment which precluded me from watching the best (and perhaps, only good) one of the four wildcard matchups – the hellacious Arizona 51-45 win over Green Bay – aside from highlight form.  I expect it will be NFL Network’s game of the week – so some more complete thoughts are warranted then.  Obviously sounded like a great game – if not a great defensive performance until the end – and full marks to Arizona for stemming the tide when the Packers seemed to have turned things around.  As for the rest of it:

Jets 24, Bengals 14 – The Jets continued their physical, mauling defense and stifled the Bengals passing game.  Darrelle Revis is the best cover CB in the league obviously, and the Jets front seven is good enough to not make him defend more than he (or any defensive back) can.  But the offensive side of the ball was where the Jets triumphed.  The Jets have been ultra careful not to expose Sanchez – and they did a great job keeping him from being stuck in “pass when we have to pass” situations.  They remained unpredictable with their running game and used it to give Sanchez some easy throws which he made.  And hey he showed poise.

Cowboys 34, Eagles 14 – The Eagles are an outstanding football team.  They hung 45 up on the Giants very recently, they beat some good opponents, their offense is young and gifted in so many places.  The Cowboys just match up very well with them, especially in the trenches where so many games are won.  The Cowboys just flogged the Eagles up front and the rest took care of itself.  The way the Cowboys have played since shocking New Orleans a few weeks back, they are going to be a very tough out.

Ravens 33, Patriots 14 – A complete wipeout.  The Ravens and Patriots have been different teams all season – the Patriots have been so beaten up by injury and attrition, their lack of depth at receiver was exposed.  Their defense has been below average much of the season.  The Ravens suffered from a lot of bad luck and lot of close losses.  But their upside is so much greater than the Patriots and they played near the top of their form.  This was a physical beat down – and the shocking beginning upset any game plan the Patriots might have had.  Just a sad day in Mudville.  The Patriots Era is not over – not by any stretch – but Belichick (one of his poorer coaching seasons) has some work to do.

So now the iron enters the fray.  The Wild Card memories reek with the bias of recency – and we tend to forget that the reason the teams with byes got them was because they deserved them largely.  Does this mean we will see four servings to the firing squad?

Cardinals at Saints – The Cardinals defense got lit up by a very talented Green Bay team.  The Saints indoors might be even more gifted.  Kurt Warner has proven how good he is when is protected.  Facing a very aggressive Gregg Williams defense, the challenge will be to rob Warner of time.  Can it happen?  Sure – especially with Anquan Boldin hurt (though he might be available, who knows – either way not 100%).  The Saints ended the season on a 3 game losing streak, including a varsity-free Week 17.  However, the bye, being at home, and their ability to generate speed all bode well.  I admire the Cardinals toughness – this is a better team than the one that stumbled into the Super Bowl last season – but the Saints have too much firepower under the dome.  Saints 34, Cardinals 24

Ravens at Colts – This is not your father’s Colts team.  I am not sure how much I have seen them really light it up.  It is a testament to Peyton’s brilliance that they have not dropped off offensively.  That said, the Ravens defense is good – maybe not as good as they looked against the fossilized Patriots attack, but good.  The Colts though have had trouble exploding at times – though augmented by better defense than normal.  Their first meeting was a 17-15 tight game where the Ravens had 5 FGs, and against a good team you need more TDs.  Colts inside though should have a little better luck.  Colts 24 , Ravens 17

Cowboys at Vikings – Vikings stumbled down the stretch.  Cowboys are surging and riding a nasty physical defense and an explosive balanced offense.  The Vikings, aside from pasting a character-free Giants team, have shown vulnerability.  The size on the inside of their defensive front bodes well against the Cowboys, but the outside defense, I am less certain.  Also Favre has been good at serving up key turnovers against good teams.  There are so many pro Cowboys signs that I should veer the other way and pick a Vikings rout, but the Cowboys have looked so strong.  I will hate myself for this: Cowboys 27, Vikings 24

Jets at Chargers – The Jets defense and blitzing will cut into what the Chargers like doing – throwing the ball deep.  The Chargers will have to be patient, and might have to win a rock fight.  The Jets running game also plays well against a very suspect Chargers defensive front.  And as last week showed, Sanchez can make a play or two if the situations are handled smartly.  That said, the firepower for th Jets is limited with Braylon Edwards being more likely to drop a big play than make one.  The Chargers will struggle, but not enough.  Chargers 20, Jets 10

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Happy New Year – NFL Playoffs are Back

With 17 weeks in the book, it is time to offer some thoughts on each of the Wild Card matchups, going in chronological order:

However first of all, some comment on the Wes Welker injury.  It happens – first quarter, guy makes a cut, untouched, season over.  (or whatever, given how coy Bill Belichick is)  It is tempting to say that this validates the Colts decision to sit their starters and turn their backs on an unbeaten season (not accomplished since the 1972 Miami Dolphins) – which has its eloquent defenders.  The defenses are fair and reasonable.  However, the argument misses a couple of key points:

  • History.  The unbeaten season is historically a fairly big deal – there is a reason that it has not been chased down in 37 years – it’s hard!  No true football fan believes that the 1972 Dolphins are the greatest team of all time.  But they are the one that never lost a game, and so there is immortality.  Maybe the players don’t care – somehow I doubt it.
  • Causation.  The 2007 Patriots did not lose the Super Bowl due to the chase of history.  There may have been stress factors, and dealing with being cast as villains – but really that might have been 2% of the cause.  The Giants were just better once – which is how single elimination tends to work.
  • You never know.  Welker blew out his knee in a somewhat meaningless game.  But it was the first quarter, he was not touched.  Manning could have been hurt in the same manner.  Football is a hard game.  Heck, airplane travel is dangerous – but the Patriots made the trip.  They are not faberge eggs – you hope they don’t go out like this, but it’s a risk with the sport.
  • Customer service.  The teams that DO play preseason games in January should declare their intentions.  Fans deserve (especially paying ones) to watch football.  They already are saddled with 2 preseason games, they should not be forced to buy a third or fourth.

Rant over.  Now to the playoff games:

  • Jets at Bengals:  One of three Week 17 rematches this weekend.  The Bengals did play their varsity against the Jets and the Jets, in a win or else mode, pasted them.  That said, the scenery changes to Cincinnati this weekend.  Both teams have stout defenses and pedestrian offenses, though the Bengals can throw the ball better.  The Jets are trying to keep Mark Sanchez away from having a role in the final result of games, but you cannot hide him forever.  He has star ability and presence, but he is a rookie and has looked like one.  The Jets have the league’s best defense and it’s best defensive player (Darrelle Revis).  The team can run and win bad weather games.  But the Bengals have a little more firepower and I suspect they held back a bit tactically.  Bengals 17, Jets 13
  • Eagles at Cowboys:  This is a little different.  Eagles had a lot to play for – a division title and a bye.  The bye of course increases the odds of winning it all geometrically.  The Cowboys manhandled them up front and won with defense and running.  There is the usual adage about the difficulty of beating a team three times, but the Cowboys physicality makes it hard to pick against them.  Cowboys 27, Eagles 17
  • Ravens at Patriots:  The Ravens are 9-7, theoretically limping into the postseason, like the 10-6 Patriots are.  However, I look at the Ravens 7 losses, and see that they were all to playoff teams except for a loss to the Steelers, and that they were outscored in those games by a combined 38 points.  In other words, the losses were competitive.  Add their second in the AFC +130 scoring margin, and the resume looks more impressive.  The Patriots have a higher scoring margin and 10-6, and playing at home, so they are in good shape, right?  Well, there is the Welker injury, that is one thing.  Tom Brady’s 3 broken ribs and resulting mediocre play is another thing.  They smashed bad teams and played well at home.  On the road their defense seemed not very good, and they had a knack for collapsing facing adversity.  The character seems lacking a bit.  They can beat the Ravens, but I have a hard time picturing it, with the injuries and all.  Ravens 23, Patriots 20
  • Packers at Cardinals: Well the Packers belted them 33-7 this past Sunday.  However, Arizona did play Matt Leinart extensively, and I am not sure how much they cared about the result.  The Cardinals have a true track record now, and this year even have some very big high profile wins.  The inconsistency is there (really the NFC is wide open), but the Cardinals know how to work in big games, especially if the weather is not a big deal.  The Packers with Rodgers can flat out score, and Charles Woodson has been magnificent defensively.  However, their protection has been an issue at times this season and I am not convinced they are ready to win this sort of game – not yet anyway.  Cardinals 30, Packers 27
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MLB Preview – NL Central

Other divisions here, here, here and here:

1. Chicago Cubs

The billy goat curse

Is fake but is fun to discuss

This team is league best

2. Cincinnati Reds

Votto could be a star

Volquez is on his way there

Will Dusty stink

3. Saint Louis Cardinals

Pujols NLs best

Ludwick fluky Ankiel not

But need Carpenter

4. Milwaukee Brewers

Rickie Weeks its time

To live up to the promise

Gallardo step up too

5. Houston Astros

Ed Wade is moron

Hunter Pence and Roy Oswalt

Only source of hope

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Always last it so seems

Have a few good players there

They will be traded