Tag Archives: Cincinnati

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2011 NFL Power Rankings #7

With Green Bay taking its bye week this week, the focus was on some of the other teams, especially San Francisco and whether it could retain it’s surprising to say the least status in the Top 5.  Sure, Cleveland was not a great opponent, but still required work.  Moreover, the Eagles on Sunday night delivered a stern message, that does not show in the rankings yet, but could be a harbinger down the road … maybe.  Without further ado.  As always, teams are compared on RPI (with a road win component), record vs good teams, record vs common opponents, head to head and adjusted scoring margin.

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Packers 7 0 0.743 (1) 15.367 (2) 30
2 49ers 6 1 0.678 (2) 15.838 (1) 30
3 Bills 5 2 0.657 (4) 15.03 (3) 29
4 Ravens 5 2 0.616 (7) 13.132 (5) 27
5 Lions 6 2 0.63 (6) 13.54 (4) 27
6 Patriots 5 2 0.664 (3) 12.086 (6) 26
7 Bengals 5 2 0.607 (8) 8.084 (11) 23
8 Saints 5 3 0.594 (9) 8.483 (10) 23
9 Steelers 6 2 0.64 (5) 7.721 (12) 22
10 Texans 5 3 0.554 (13) 10.402 (7) 21
11 Bears 4 3 0.53 (17) 9.254 (8) 19
12 Falcons 4 3 0.576 (10) 5.628 (15) 19
13 Chiefs 4 3 0.557 (11) -1.137 (24) 18
14 Jets 4 3 0.532 (16) 6.487 (13) 17
15 Raiders 4 3 0.543 (15) 1.589 (16) 17
16 Chargers 4 3 0.553 (14) 1.066 (18) 15
17 Titans 4 3 0.508 (19) 0.979 (20) 13
18 Bucs 4 3 0.523 (18) -0.321 (22) 13
19 Cowboys 3 4 0.494 (21) 5.699 (14) 12
20 Giants 5 2 0.556 (12) 0.994 (19) 12
21 Eagles 3 4 0.496 (20) 8.863 (9) 11
22 Redskins 3 4 0.442 (22) -1.191 (25) 9
23 Jaguars 2 6 0.347 (27) -0.355 (23) 7
24 Broncos 2 5 0.399 (25) -3.636 (28) 7
25 Seahawks 2 5 0.408 (24) -2.449 (27) 7
26 Vikings 2 6 0.376 (26) 1.112 (17) 6
27 Browns 3 4 0.425 (23) -4.376 (29) 4
28 Panthers 2 6 0.313 (28) 0.851 (21) 4
29 Rams 1 6 0.302 (29) -8.356 (31) 3
30 Cardinals 1 6 0.268 (30) -2.349 (26) 2
31 Dolphins 0 7 0.235 (32) -4.913 (30) 0
32 Colts 0 8 0.248 (31) -10.517 (32) 0

The team making the strongest statement is Cincinnati, shooting up to a very impressive 7th.  Much of it is on the back of an NFC West oriented schedule, the same one the rest of the AFC North has, but their defense has been wonderful all season.  They are not going to go away – though I don’t see a 12-4 season in them either.  The Patriots, after being thumped by the Steelers, plunge to 6th – and really until the defense gets fixed, they don’t deserve much better.

Schedule quartiles:

Toughest schedules (opponent’s record, avg RPI)

  1. Bills (27-15, .555)
  2. Lions (27-22, .551)
  3. Raiders (25-18, .546)
  4. Falcons (25-19, .546)
  5. 49ers (25-18, .545)
  6. Bears (27-19, .541)
  7. Cowboys (24-19, .540)
  8. Patriots (24-19, .535)

Easiest schedules

  1. Steelers (22-29, .468)
  2. Chargers (18-25, .466)
  3. Titans (20-26, .463)
  4. Panthers (22-29, .460)
  5. Browns (17-26, .457)
  6. Redskins (16-27, .436)
  7. Cardinals (19-26, .433)
  8. Giants (13-29, .414)
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MLB Division Series Previews

After the marathon, now comes the four week sprint to the finish line.  The baseball playoffs are the most compelling of sporting events – tension in every pitch, and really the exact opposite set of skills being tested.  If the regular season is about run scoring and organizational depth, the postseason is about everyday lineup and the ability to prevent baserunners.  So with that, the previews of each of the four Division Series matchups.

Yankees vs Twins

On paper, the Yankees are the best team in the American League.  The lineup is unmatched and the bullpen is very strong.  The defense is not as bad as it has been in year’s past with Brett Gardner representing a huge upgrade over what they were wheeling out in the past.  That said, the rotation has sagged, with AJ Burnett turning from a coach back into a pumpkin, and Andy Pettitte’s effectiveness being not guaranteed.  The Twins were right there for best record until the last weekend, but when we look at the sort of components you need to win short series baseball, there is not a ton there:

  • Lineups: Puh-leeze.  The Yankees smashed other pitchers into oblivion all season, despite Alex Rodriguez fading to merely very good, and Derek Jeter slipping to somewhat above average.  Robinson Cano is a legitimate MVP candidate, and they get power out of so many positions.  The Twins get on base, but without Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer is the only scary hitter they have – although Jim Thome has had a nice wayback machine season. (Edge: Yankees)
  • Bullpen: Both have been good down the stretch, but the Yankees miss more bats.  The less contact at this time of year, the better. (Edge: Yankees)
  • Defense: Both solid here.  Twins always make it a priority, though Yanks might be better in the edges.  If we use Fangraphs runs saved, Twins are 3rd, the Yankees are 10th in the AL.  For UZR, Twins are 2nd, Yanks are 5th.  (Edge: Twins)
  • Rotation:  Yanks have more upside, though both teams only have one reliable starter.  Sabbathia must be a horse for the Yankees to make their dreams come true.  Liriano is an ace, though not sure he has the durability needed here. (Edge: Yankees)
  • Manager: Both are obsessed with smallball, and Girardi managed the Yankees out of basically 3 of their 4 losses in the postseason last year.  Gardenhire is less inclined to screw things up.  (Edge: Twins)

The Twins last year were the worst team ever to make the postseason.  This is a much better squad.  But for short series baseball, they are not the Yankees equal, even with the Yankees being worse than a year ago.  Yankees in 4

Rays vs Rangers

This is a fascinating matchup of youth and upside.  Two great farm systems bearing all their fruit – really this is as wide open an AL playoff as there has been in quite some time.  The Rays made the World Series in 2008, so we know their short series credentials are strong.  The Rangers less so, though this is far more dangerous than the Gonzalez-Pudge-Rick Helling teams they ran out in the mid to late 90s.

  • Lineup: The Rays lack star power.  Longoria is their one true stud, as Zobrist has not been as good as in year’s previous.  But they take excellent at-bats up and down the lineup.  They are a good on base team.  The Rangers are a better on base team, but in a better hitters park.  But Josh Hamilton has been magnificent and Nelson Cruz has shown a lot of power.  (Edge: Rangers, but not by much)
  • Rotation: David Price and Cliff Lee are both Cy Young caliber guys.  But behind them, stuff changes.  CJ Wilson has the stuff of an excellent #2, but the dropoff is solid.  The Rays with James Shields, Matt Garza, Wade Davis have more options, though Cliff Lee could pitch in short rest. (Edge: Rays)
  • Bullpen: Rafael Soriano and Neftali Feliz are great closers.  Both bullpens have lefty and righty options and good setup guys.  The Rays are a little better here .  (Edge: Rays, slightly)
  • Defense: The Rays are a terrific run preventing defense. (5th in Runs Saved, 3rd in UZR)  The Rangers are more middle of the pack (9th and 7th respectively)  The Rays rode their defense to a pennant in 2008 – we know they can do this. (Edge: Rays)
  • Managing: Maddon is solid, respects OBP, and has shown sound tactics all season.  He hurt them in 2008, but seems smarter.  Washington has been with the Rangers for years.  He is certainly not bad.  (Edge: Rays)

A Rangers win is not a surprise here.  They are so talented and young in so many places.  They could rule the West for years.  But the Rays are the best team in baseball.  Does that mean they escape the murderous AL?  I don’t know – because there are tough opponents like this.  Rays in 5

Braves vs Giants

The Braves have stumbled to the finish line under the weight of serious injury problems.  They are a terrific on-base team though it has not translated to runs – though Jason Heyward is going to be a superstar.  The pitching has been solid all year.  Fortunately they are facing another offensively starved team led by a young uberstar (Buster Posey) in the Giants.  Both of these teams should be cannon fodder for the team below, but this is the most fascinating of the first round series.

Offense: Both stink.  The Braves have so many guys hurt, and the Giants have just been anemic all season.  That said, the Giants play in such a pitcher’s park that will explain some of their horror show, and with revived Pat Burrell, Aubrey Huff and Posey, they have a bit more to offer personnel wise than the Braves who are Heyward, Brian McCann and hope.  (Edge: Giants, slightly)

Defense: Both good.  3rd and 4th in runs saved.  That said, the Giants UZR is much better – indicating they get to more balls possibly.  This is somewhat speculative but the Giants show a bit more. (Edge: Giants)

Rotation: Both strong.  Lincecum and Cain are studs and Jonathan Sanchez and Baumgartner are all good for the Giants.  The Braves had to fight to the last day and use Tim Hudson, their ace, to get in.  This means that Derek Lowe needs to be able to give 2 starts to win this series.  For that reaso alone the Giants have the edge.

Bullpen: Both excellent.   Both managers have a lot of weapons at their disposal, the Braves being the bigger surprise with Billy Wagner having a wayback machine season.  (Push)

Manager: Cox is one of the best ever.  Bochy is not.  But he’s not Dusty Baker either.  (Edge: Braves)

Braves got a gift matchup, and they need it given how badly they limped to the finish line.  The Giants have the sort of team that can win a short series with that nasty top 3 in the rotation and solid defense.  The Braves on-base talent though could be enough to squeeze this series out.  This is a serially weird series to call, but I have to pick something.  Giants in 5

Phillies vs Reds

Here we are, your World Series favorite.  The Phillies with Oswalt, have such a short series devastating rotation and a lineup comparable to a good AL team that it’s hard to not see them get to their 3rd world series in a row, and for once a rotation edge on any AL team.  The Reds are young and gifted though, but this is the wrong year to get this matchup.

Lineup: The Phillies have fewer holes than the average NL lineup.  When healthy Chase Utley is the best player in baseball, and Ryan Howard is a good hitting 1B albeit split heavy and overrated.  Werth has had a terrific contract year.  This is not as strong a lineup as they have had in the past but certainly good.  The Reds are younger and Joey Votto is an MVP candidate.  Jay Bruce is a serious upside guy also and Scott Rolen has had a nice wayback season.   Both teams enjoy hitting parks.  (Edge: Reds)

Rotation: The Reds have been better than one’d expect, with Cueto having a strong year.  But the Phillies run out two potential #1 types in Halladay and Hamels with Oswalt being a tick below but damn good.  Really this top 3 might make them the favorites to win it all, period this year. (Edge: Phillies big)

Bullpen: Neither team is especially good.  The difference is the rotations and usage patterns of each manager, which shift the balance here.  In a vacuum, it’s a push, but games are played in TV sets, not in vacuums.  (Edge: Phillies)

Defense:  The Reds have been strong, 4th in the NL is UZR and Runs Saved.  The Phillies are middle of the pack in both.  The outfield defense in particular with Ibanez and Victorino seems meh.  The Reds can field the ball, if the pitchers can keep it in the park.  (Edge: Reds)

Manager: Charlie Manuel is old school while Dusty Baker might have run his staff into the ground.  Somehow, the Reds got in despite it.  Manuel will trust his lineup and not overmanage.  Dusty of course, well … we know.  (Edge: Phillies)

The Phillies are the heavy favorite in the NL and could very well win the whole damn thing with that pitching.  They have short series muscle to the teeth.  The Reds are young and this series has some slugfest potential – some – but the Phils might end up doing most of the slugging with that Reds staff. Phillies in 3

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Wild Card Weekend and The Divisionals

Full disclosure – I had a previous commitment which precluded me from watching the best (and perhaps, only good) one of the four wildcard matchups – the hellacious Arizona 51-45 win over Green Bay – aside from highlight form.  I expect it will be NFL Network’s game of the week – so some more complete thoughts are warranted then.  Obviously sounded like a great game – if not a great defensive performance until the end – and full marks to Arizona for stemming the tide when the Packers seemed to have turned things around.  As for the rest of it:

Jets 24, Bengals 14 – The Jets continued their physical, mauling defense and stifled the Bengals passing game.  Darrelle Revis is the best cover CB in the league obviously, and the Jets front seven is good enough to not make him defend more than he (or any defensive back) can.  But the offensive side of the ball was where the Jets triumphed.  The Jets have been ultra careful not to expose Sanchez – and they did a great job keeping him from being stuck in “pass when we have to pass” situations.  They remained unpredictable with their running game and used it to give Sanchez some easy throws which he made.  And hey he showed poise.

Cowboys 34, Eagles 14 – The Eagles are an outstanding football team.  They hung 45 up on the Giants very recently, they beat some good opponents, their offense is young and gifted in so many places.  The Cowboys just match up very well with them, especially in the trenches where so many games are won.  The Cowboys just flogged the Eagles up front and the rest took care of itself.  The way the Cowboys have played since shocking New Orleans a few weeks back, they are going to be a very tough out.

Ravens 33, Patriots 14 – A complete wipeout.  The Ravens and Patriots have been different teams all season – the Patriots have been so beaten up by injury and attrition, their lack of depth at receiver was exposed.  Their defense has been below average much of the season.  The Ravens suffered from a lot of bad luck and lot of close losses.  But their upside is so much greater than the Patriots and they played near the top of their form.  This was a physical beat down – and the shocking beginning upset any game plan the Patriots might have had.  Just a sad day in Mudville.  The Patriots Era is not over – not by any stretch – but Belichick (one of his poorer coaching seasons) has some work to do.

So now the iron enters the fray.  The Wild Card memories reek with the bias of recency – and we tend to forget that the reason the teams with byes got them was because they deserved them largely.  Does this mean we will see four servings to the firing squad?

Cardinals at Saints – The Cardinals defense got lit up by a very talented Green Bay team.  The Saints indoors might be even more gifted.  Kurt Warner has proven how good he is when is protected.  Facing a very aggressive Gregg Williams defense, the challenge will be to rob Warner of time.  Can it happen?  Sure – especially with Anquan Boldin hurt (though he might be available, who knows – either way not 100%).  The Saints ended the season on a 3 game losing streak, including a varsity-free Week 17.  However, the bye, being at home, and their ability to generate speed all bode well.  I admire the Cardinals toughness – this is a better team than the one that stumbled into the Super Bowl last season – but the Saints have too much firepower under the dome.  Saints 34, Cardinals 24

Ravens at Colts – This is not your father’s Colts team.  I am not sure how much I have seen them really light it up.  It is a testament to Peyton’s brilliance that they have not dropped off offensively.  That said, the Ravens defense is good – maybe not as good as they looked against the fossilized Patriots attack, but good.  The Colts though have had trouble exploding at times – though augmented by better defense than normal.  Their first meeting was a 17-15 tight game where the Ravens had 5 FGs, and against a good team you need more TDs.  Colts inside though should have a little better luck.  Colts 24 , Ravens 17

Cowboys at Vikings – Vikings stumbled down the stretch.  Cowboys are surging and riding a nasty physical defense and an explosive balanced offense.  The Vikings, aside from pasting a character-free Giants team, have shown vulnerability.  The size on the inside of their defensive front bodes well against the Cowboys, but the outside defense, I am less certain.  Also Favre has been good at serving up key turnovers against good teams.  There are so many pro Cowboys signs that I should veer the other way and pick a Vikings rout, but the Cowboys have looked so strong.  I will hate myself for this: Cowboys 27, Vikings 24

Jets at Chargers – The Jets defense and blitzing will cut into what the Chargers like doing – throwing the ball deep.  The Chargers will have to be patient, and might have to win a rock fight.  The Jets running game also plays well against a very suspect Chargers defensive front.  And as last week showed, Sanchez can make a play or two if the situations are handled smartly.  That said, the firepower for th Jets is limited with Braylon Edwards being more likely to drop a big play than make one.  The Chargers will struggle, but not enough.  Chargers 20, Jets 10

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Happy New Year – NFL Playoffs are Back

With 17 weeks in the book, it is time to offer some thoughts on each of the Wild Card matchups, going in chronological order:

However first of all, some comment on the Wes Welker injury.  It happens – first quarter, guy makes a cut, untouched, season over.  (or whatever, given how coy Bill Belichick is)  It is tempting to say that this validates the Colts decision to sit their starters and turn their backs on an unbeaten season (not accomplished since the 1972 Miami Dolphins) – which has its eloquent defenders.  The defenses are fair and reasonable.  However, the argument misses a couple of key points:

  • History.  The unbeaten season is historically a fairly big deal – there is a reason that it has not been chased down in 37 years – it’s hard!  No true football fan believes that the 1972 Dolphins are the greatest team of all time.  But they are the one that never lost a game, and so there is immortality.  Maybe the players don’t care – somehow I doubt it.
  • Causation.  The 2007 Patriots did not lose the Super Bowl due to the chase of history.  There may have been stress factors, and dealing with being cast as villains – but really that might have been 2% of the cause.  The Giants were just better once – which is how single elimination tends to work.
  • You never know.  Welker blew out his knee in a somewhat meaningless game.  But it was the first quarter, he was not touched.  Manning could have been hurt in the same manner.  Football is a hard game.  Heck, airplane travel is dangerous – but the Patriots made the trip.  They are not faberge eggs – you hope they don’t go out like this, but it’s a risk with the sport.
  • Customer service.  The teams that DO play preseason games in January should declare their intentions.  Fans deserve (especially paying ones) to watch football.  They already are saddled with 2 preseason games, they should not be forced to buy a third or fourth.

Rant over.  Now to the playoff games:

  • Jets at Bengals:  One of three Week 17 rematches this weekend.  The Bengals did play their varsity against the Jets and the Jets, in a win or else mode, pasted them.  That said, the scenery changes to Cincinnati this weekend.  Both teams have stout defenses and pedestrian offenses, though the Bengals can throw the ball better.  The Jets are trying to keep Mark Sanchez away from having a role in the final result of games, but you cannot hide him forever.  He has star ability and presence, but he is a rookie and has looked like one.  The Jets have the league’s best defense and it’s best defensive player (Darrelle Revis).  The team can run and win bad weather games.  But the Bengals have a little more firepower and I suspect they held back a bit tactically.  Bengals 17, Jets 13
  • Eagles at Cowboys:  This is a little different.  Eagles had a lot to play for – a division title and a bye.  The bye of course increases the odds of winning it all geometrically.  The Cowboys manhandled them up front and won with defense and running.  There is the usual adage about the difficulty of beating a team three times, but the Cowboys physicality makes it hard to pick against them.  Cowboys 27, Eagles 17
  • Ravens at Patriots:  The Ravens are 9-7, theoretically limping into the postseason, like the 10-6 Patriots are.  However, I look at the Ravens 7 losses, and see that they were all to playoff teams except for a loss to the Steelers, and that they were outscored in those games by a combined 38 points.  In other words, the losses were competitive.  Add their second in the AFC +130 scoring margin, and the resume looks more impressive.  The Patriots have a higher scoring margin and 10-6, and playing at home, so they are in good shape, right?  Well, there is the Welker injury, that is one thing.  Tom Brady’s 3 broken ribs and resulting mediocre play is another thing.  They smashed bad teams and played well at home.  On the road their defense seemed not very good, and they had a knack for collapsing facing adversity.  The character seems lacking a bit.  They can beat the Ravens, but I have a hard time picturing it, with the injuries and all.  Ravens 23, Patriots 20
  • Packers at Cardinals: Well the Packers belted them 33-7 this past Sunday.  However, Arizona did play Matt Leinart extensively, and I am not sure how much they cared about the result.  The Cardinals have a true track record now, and this year even have some very big high profile wins.  The inconsistency is there (really the NFC is wide open), but the Cardinals know how to work in big games, especially if the weather is not a big deal.  The Packers with Rodgers can flat out score, and Charles Woodson has been magnificent defensively.  However, their protection has been an issue at times this season and I am not convinced they are ready to win this sort of game – not yet anyway.  Cardinals 30, Packers 27