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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #10 – Final Report and Playoff Preview

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

First as you have probably seen from the last couple of entries, people still have Cystic Fibrosis – blah blah blah – click here to help …

FINALLY.  The best of the playoff seasons is upon us.  Of course this was after a truly execrable last couple of weeks of the season where teams were playing scrubs shamelessly while still charging full prices.  The Tuesday Celtics-Heat game was a particular atrocity.  So the rankings could be skewed a tiny bit.  But whatever, the playoffs are here and looks at the series are coming up … how have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (2) Bulls (50-16)
  2. (4) Spurs (50-16)
  3. (1) Thunder (47-19)
  4. (3) Heat (46-20)
  5. (5) Sixers (35-31)
  6. (10) Nugggets (38-28)
  7. (6) Celtics (39-27)
  8. (8) Hawks (40-26)
  9. (7) Grizzlies (41-25)
  10. (15) Clippers (40-26)
  11. (13) Mavericks (36-30)
  12. (9) Lakers (41-25)
  13. (14) Knicks (36-30)
  14. (16) Pacers (42-24)
  15. (11) Magic (37-29)
  16. (12) Rockets (34-32)
  17. (18) Suns (33-33)
  18. (20) Jazz (36-30)
  19. (19) Bucks (31-35)
  20. (17) Blazers (28-38)
  21. (21) Timberwolves (26-40)
  22. (22) Warriors (23-43)
  23. (24) Hornets (21-45)
  24. (23) Raptors (23-43)
  25. (25) Kings (22-44)
  26. (29) Wizards (20-46)
  27. (27) Pistons (25-42)
  28. (28) Nets (22-44)
  29. (26) Wizards (21-45)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-59)

It’s the playoffs!  So – quick looks at your first round series are in order:

  • (E1) Bulls v (E8) Sixers – This is #1 vs #5.  What a matchup!  However, the Sixers have really stumbled down the stretch, but the metrics have been strong as the Sixers blowouts early still have resonance.  The Bulls with Derrick Rose’s dicey injury situation could be great – but they could be tricky.  Defense will be the order of the day (#2 v #3) and neither team is great from outside.  I can’t imagine the Bulls losing this but the Sixers match up well with them, better than they do with the Heat.  Bulls in 7
  • (E4) Celtics v (E5) Hawks – #7 vs #8.  Interestingly here the lower seed has home court.  The Celtics have been very strong down the stretch.  But so have the Hawks, both in the Top 6 since the trade deadline.  The Celtics have serious issues with rebounding and size, but the Hawks are 26th in offensive rebounding, so it is hard to read that as a huge edge.  The games have all been close in their head to head.  Really more of a coin flip than the experts purport.  Hawks in 7
  • (E2) Heat v (E7) Knicks – #4 vs #13 Fun series with two defensively adept teams.  Anthony and LeBron will be a great matchup and the Novak/Smith bench for the Knicks could explode.  But it is hard to envision the Knicks winning in Miami.  This is a fun series but Heat in 6
  • (E3) Pacers v (E6) Magic – The Pacers have the 5th best record in the league but merely #14 in rankings.  This describes the Pacers in general – a nice team, lot of good players, but is this the juice to win a playoff series?  The Magic will be motivated with no Dwight Howard and “nobody believing in them”. Did the Pacers more competitive than it seemed result vs Chicago last year inform them or will the Magic’s winning experience do it?  Without Glen Davis, the Magic just don’t have enough players now – good or otherwise.  Pacers in 5
  • (W1) Spurs v (W8) Jazz – Spurs can flat out score, but the Jazz can attack with size.  Will the Spurs lose in round 1 again?  Frankly I’d have more faith in the Jazz if their defense was not so mediocre.  Against the buzz saw offense of San Antonio it is tough sledding.  Spurs in 5
  • (W4) Grizzlies v (W5) Clippers – Grizzlies are a sexy pick to upset the apple cart.  However this is not last year’s Zach Randolph.  Meanwhile the Clippers just have more better players and one of the game’s best all around players and leaders.  Look how the Hornets stole 2 games against the Lakers with Chris Paul and nobody – he is just that good.  In the playoffs, the stars play more.  Lob City is not done yet.  Clippers in 6
  • (W2) Thunder v (W7) Mavericks – Hard series to peg.  On paper, Thunder should rip through this.  In actuality, Dallas can throw a lot of junk D at them and make the Thunder really work for it.  But it won’t be enough.  Thunder in 7
  • (W3) Lakers v (W6) Nuggets – Denver has depth.  The Lakers don’t.  Denver has speed, and the Lakers have real issues with that.  But the Lakers have all the really good players here and their size and ability to dictate in the half court.  I hope Denver can make this fun.  I think the Lakers grind it out enough.  Lakers in 6

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #4

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , ,

With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (3) Bulls (21-6)
  2. (2) Sixers (18-7)
  3. (1) Heat (18-6)
  4. (6) Thunder (19-5)
  5. (8) Blazers (14-11)
  6. (4) Hawks (16-9)
  7. (5) Nuggets (15-10)
  8. (9) Spurs (17-9)
  9. (11) Lakers (14-11)
  10. (12) Celtics (13-10)
  11. (10) Clippers (15-7)
  12. (15) Pacers (16-7)
  13. (7) Mavericks (14-11)
  14. (14) Rockets (14-11)
  15. (17) Grizzlies (12-13)
  16. (13) Timberwolves (12-12)
  17. (18) Magic (15-10)
  18. (16) Jazz (13-10)
  19. (19) Bucks (10-13)
  20. (21) Suns (10-14)
  21. (22) Warriors (8-13)
  22. (24) Knicks (10-15)
  23. (20) Hornets (4-21)
  24. (25) Cavaliers (9-13)
  25. (23) Raptors (8-18)
  26. (28) Kings (9-15)
  27. (26) Nets (8-18)
  28. (27) Wizards (5-20)
  29. (28) Pistons (6-20)
  30. (30) Bobcats (3-21)

Some notes:

  1. Back in the top spot is Chicago – they have been there before this year, they finished the regular season last year #1.  Put simply, there is something to lean on here.  That said, as the Miami playoff showed, the offense was a problem.  The Bulls won last year with a combination of the league’s best defense and an offense that was above average – much the same formula the Celtics took to the title when Tom Thibodeau was assisting Doc Rivers.  That said, unlike the Celtics – the Bulls were in 2011 one of the league’s better shot generating teams.  The Bulls were 4th in the league at offensive rebounding and while the turnover rate was below average, it was enough to give them a lot of shots at the basket.  Despite a mediocre TS team, they were able to squeeze some extra juice out of their possessions.  What is interesting this year is the turnaround their offense HAS made – and it gives some hope for them advancing further in the playoffs.  The Bulls simply put, are making more shots.  Replacing Keith Bogans’ corpse with Richard Hamilton’s corpse has helped.  Also, a shocking improvement (probably unsustainable) by CJ Watson has upped the ante too – along with Derrick Rose upping his own FG%.  The team is just shooting better, their 3 point percentage has also gone up to 7th in the league – and while they get to the line less, it is by no means a huge drop off.  The TS side of the formula has gone up – while the already excellent shot generation is even better.  The Bulls are tops in the league in offensive rebounding, and they take care of the ball much better this season … all this leads to the 2nd best shot generating team in basketball.  So the Bulls are getting more shots up, and making more shots – this bodes well.
  2. The Suns … 20th in offense, it’s inconceivable.  Let’s move on.
  3. The 6th ranked Hawks did not have a particularly good week – and they are showing some possible regression to the mean here.  Al Horford is a really good player, and it is hard to imagine them being able to truck on without him so fearlessly.  But this is a good team, and that’s still 16 games they don’t have to win again.  The pieces are there to make the playoffs and possibly win a round considering the non-Miami and Chicago flotsam in the conference.  What is remarkable is the Hawks have been a legitimately good team this year with virtually no turnover from last year – when they were a searingly mediocre one.  Obviously the first real change is in personnel where Jeff Teague has showed he can be a legitimately decent NBA point guard.  If you saw him at Wake Forest, the elite level athletic ability has not abated.  He has been very strong defensively and has run a solid offense – not the elite level they were in 2010 on that end of the floor, but a more than estimable 11th.  However, their big leap has been defensively.  A year ago, this was an area of mediocrity, while now it is a strength.  Part of it is having Teague to check point guards.  Part of it is having an elite defender like Kirk Hinrich to be able to match up with a variety of alignments.  Part of it is Marvin Williams settling into becoming a good rotation player, and Josh Smith limiting his mental vacations.  But whatever the cause, the same roster which only was 11th in TS allowed due to its ability to resist committing fouls and defend the three, the roster which was near the bottom of the league in shot prevention – is in the top ten in both.  The Hawks have defended two point shots better this year while still fouling very little.  Moreover, they have risen from 29th in forcing turnovers a year ago to a solid 14th.  If the Hawks continue to defend this well – and really Josh Smith has to be the pillar here – they will not go away.
  4. The Clippers acquisition of Kenyon Martin is a quiet gem of a move.  The team clearly has a giant pile of bupkus behind Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan.  Everybody knows that.  But what everybody might not know is that the front court has also been quietly atrocious defensively.  Griffin has not shown an ability to be a high effort defender, and Jordan for his shot blocking clearly has not learned any of the Tim Duncan calculus on when is a good time to take a chance.  What is interesting is that despite an elite defensive backcourt – the Clippers are a pretty bad defensive team, and bad in a surprisingly across the board way.  They have issues defending the two, the three (28th), they foul too much (28th) and they aren’t especially distinguished at recovering misses when they DO happen (19th) or forcing turnovers (19th).  The offense has had to carry them and largely it has.  Martin, who has been an elite defensive big his whole life HAS to be able to help this somewhat.  Of course, part of defense is scheme and coaching and scouting, and this is still the cheap-ass CLIPPERS we are talking about.  If you think Vinnie Del Negro is an incompetent coach, the defensive level here might be something your lawyer might use in a trial.

Dare to Be Stupid – How Much is that Lottery Pick in the Window?

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , ,

Waking up this morning, THIS story comes on the interwebs.

Cavaliers get Baron Davis and the Clippers first round pick in the 2011 draft

Clippers get Mo Williams and Jamario Moon

For the Clippers, this is pretty easy.  Mo Williams is a lot cheaper than Baron Davis, while Moon expires.  The deal they signed Davis to has largely been a disaster.  Baron Davis is the best point guard in the NBA – the man whom if you were to go to the point guard parts store to build a perfect PG, he’d probably be what a prototype would look like – when he is motivated and not injured.  Sadly that latter condition has been all too rare.  The Clippers are happy to be rid of his contract, even though they are getting an inferior player in Mo Williams.  Williams won’t be throwing Blake Griffin over the car alley-oops, but he can space the floor.  I am sure Clippers fans will not miss Baron’s 3 or 4 ill-advised threes per game.

For the Cavaliers, reportedly they were willing to buy another solid lottery pick – and Baron Davis is the cost.  Davis can help them, if yadda yadda yadda.  However, really they wanted another potential top ten pick in this draft.  I am not sure why you’d double down so hard for a pick in THIS draft – which is highly speculative (not a ton of guys you can say are turnkey), but the Cavs do need a talent infusion ASAP, and this moves that process along.

2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 1

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Here we are, the first rankings of the year, after 1 week of action.  The method has tweaked a little this year, so here is what you need to know.

Offense: (Points per possession x League Average Possessions per game) = the points the team scores in an average speed game

Defense: the points a team allows in an average speed game adjusted to account for free throws, since a team defense should not receive credit for the ability of their opponents to shoot freebies.

Road: 3.5 points is the assumed home court advantage, so over an 82 game season this number should be 1.75 (half the games played on the road).  This measures on a 0-3.5 scale how “road heavy” a team’s schedule is.

SOS: The possession-normalized scoring margin of a team’s opponents when not playing that team.

Rating: Offense – Defense + Road + SOS

So, with that out of the way, how did Week 1 go?

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Heat 3 1 100.764 (13) 87.714 (2) 2.625 7.105 (6) 22.78
2 Nuggets 2 1 102.524 (8) 93.83 (4) 2.333 4.432 (12) 15.459
3 Lakers 3 0 105.416 (5) 96.359 (11) 1.167 5.161 (9) 15.384
4 Hornets 3 0 101.312 (10) 96.014 (10) 1.167 8.579 (4) 15.044
5 Grizzlies 2 1 96.563 (22) 95.151 (7) 1.167 11.273 (1) 13.851
6 Magic 1 1 92.526 (27) 90.833 (3) 1.75 9.253 (3) 12.697
7 Mavericks 2 1 100.504 (14) 86.984 (1) 1.167 -4.57 (28) 10.117
8 Bulls 2 1 101.293 (11) 96.43 (12) 1.167 2.616 (14) 8.646
9 Knicks 1 2 97.334 (20) 97.829 (13) 2.333 6.521 (8) 8.359
10 Suns 1 2 104.33 (6) 106.081 (27) 2.333 6.537 (7) 7.119
11 Rockets 0 3 103.533 (7) 106.733 (29) 2.333 7.908 (5) 7.041
12 Celtics 2 1 95.031 (23) 94.564 (5) 1.167 4.846 (11) 6.48
13 Blazers 3 1 105.819 (4) 103.264 (23) 2.625 0.211 (17) 5.391
14 Sixers 0 3 93.242 (26) 100.078 (17) 1.167 9.36 (2) 3.691
15 Raptors 1 2 99.01 (17) 95.331 (8) 1.167 -1.549 (20) 3.297
16 Warriors 2 1 106.8 (2) 102.871 (21) 1.167 -1.967 (21) 3.128
17 Hawks 3 0 107.66 (1) 99.232 (15) 2.333 -9.148 (30) 1.614
18 Jazz 1 2 97.444 (19) 100.548 (18) 2.333 1.16 (15) 0.389
19 Spurs 2 1 101.155 (12) 98.696 (14) 1.167 -3.395 (26) 0.231
20 Nets 2 1 99.754 (15) 105.933 (26) 0 4.883 (10) -1.296
21 Bucks 1 2 94.3 (24) 95.777 (9) 2.333 -2.242 (22) -1.386
22 Timberwolves 1 2 92.15 (28) 94.884 (6) 1.167 0.113 (18) -1.454
23 Kings 3 1 106.536 (3) 107.93 (30) 2.625 -4.406 (27) -3.174
24 Pistons 0 3 97.991 (18) 101.619 (19) 2.333 -2.35 (23) -3.645
25 Pacers 2 1 102.068 (9) 103.077 (22) 2.333 -5.317 (29) -3.992
26 Thunder 2 1 99.695 (16) 102.654 (20) 1.167 -2.545 (24) -4.337
27 Bobcats 0 3 97.306 (21) 106.555 (28) 2.333 1.141 (16) -5.775
28 Cavaliers 1 2 93.644 (25) 100.011 (16) 1.167 -0.634 (19) -5.835
29 Clippers 0 4 88.302 (30) 104.543 (25) 0.875 3.475 (13) -11.892
30 Wizards 0 2 88.455 (29) 104.519 (24) 3.5 -3.312 (25) -15.877

Some observations from Week 1:

  • The Heat’s defense has been sensational.  Considering that they have not allowed 90 points yet, and three of those opponents (Nets, Celtics, Magic) have the size down low to expose an alleged vulnerability, this is a bad bad sign for the rest of the league.  If the offense gets figured out, this could be as good as they had dreamed.
  • Note the very skewed strength of schedules.  This will obviously compress as the season goes on.
  • The Suns are a paltry 20th in the league in pace so far, and the Rockets are 2nd?  This is early season for you.
  • A new feature we’ll have here, now that the Clippers are off to such a horrible start is the Baron Davis watch.  I wondered if having a star talent like Blake Griffin would get Baron Davis to play like the guy who is such a nightmare of skills.  Alas, through 3 games (missing one with a sore knee) Davis is 1-9 from three point land.  Hooray self sabotage!

2011 NBA Preview: Teams 24-19

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This is the third entry in our NBA preview series.  In the prior installment we unearthed our picks for the six worst teams in the NBA.  Now we rise up from badness to mere irrelevance:

24. Sacramento Kings (23rd overall in 2010, 22nd offense, 18th defense)

After much of the walking disasters in the previous section, the teams here seem to either be just unappealing in a boring, non transcendental way, or they are teams like the Sacramento Kings – a team with a lot of raw materials, but without a discernible near term recipe to put the flavors together.  Tyreke Evans, while playing wildly out of position as a lead guard, is one of the most impressive physical forces in the NBA, a pocket version of the LeBron James wing player as-linebacker.  Jason Thompson is an interesting forward, Carl Landry has always been a super productive forward for his pedigree, and Beno Udrih seems like he might be a competent point guard.  DeMarcus Cousins, entering as the #5 pick, is certifiably crazy.  But he is also the single best talent to enter the draft, a big man with soft hands, amazing rebounding instincts and the ability to go for 20-20 any night.  There are going to be some nights where they could crush a team like the Lakers or Celtics on the second night of a back to back.  They will also pile up a lot of losses while trying to put this chemistry experiment together.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Tyreke Evans morphs into the junior Oscar Robertson his talent tracks with.  DeMarcus Cousins IS the best big man rookie since Dwight Howard and Paul Westphal learns how to coach defense.

23. Washington Wizards (26th overall in 2010, 25th offense, 20th defense)

After the colossal disaster of a season ago, the Wizards seemed without hope – sure they had cap space, but who would buy, especially when the three top free agents were making a pinkie swear promise?  Flip Saunders did a decent job defensively – 20th is no great shakes, but at least they gave a shit compared to what Eddie Jordan wheeled out there.  However, his offense predicated on smart reads and cuts was dependent on the basketball acumen of people like Nick Young and Javale McGee.  Oops.  This is not to say these are bad players, but “heady” is not a popular descriptor.  But alas, there is hope with Ted Leonsis owning the team and John Wall landing in their laps as the #1 overall pick.  Wall is the first true facilitator the Wizards have had since Rod Strickland, and if Gilbert Arenas can handle playing shooting guard competently, they could be entertaining pretty quickly.  While the albatross of Kirk Hinrich’s deal is not great, at least he can play basketball and not just run and dunk and shoot wantonly.  Wall, Arenas’ return and the growth of Aundray Blatche could keep things interesting for a couple of months.  Really this is a step in a solid rebuilding process.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Wall is even better than I think he will be (and that’s saying a lot), Gilbert becomes an efficient shooter and Blatche emerges as one of the East’s top power forwards.  The team learns Saunders’ defensive schemes more and become a tough team to score on.

22. Memphis Grizzlies (20th overall in 2010, 17th offense, 23rd defense)

The Grizzlies are the first (ok I forgot the Cavs) 40 win team from a year ago to be on this list.  How they did it though was a bit lucky.  First of all, they were among the healthiest teams in the league.  It is hard to remember any of their core guys, Rudy Gay, OJ Mayo, Zach Randolph missing any significant action.  The Grizzlies were an athletic team that relied on volume to account for relative inaccuracy.  So while their shooting percentage (true shooting) was merely 21st, their league leading offensive rebounding pushed them up in efficiency.  That said, their defense was bad and their bench was worse.  The bench will improve as Hasheem Thabeet might be a bust at the 2nd overall pick, but should be improved as a backup center.  Also the drafting of Xavier Henry gives them some more depth in the wing.  That said, the extension for Rudy Gay was nonsensical, and the odds of human carcinogen Zach Randolph staying engaged again is low.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They played in the NBDL.  Their starting five stays as healthy and focused as they did last year and Xavier Henry plays like the guy who the college basketball experts thought Kansas was getting and not the one dimensional wimp who actually played for them.  But there is just not much ceiling here – considering what a best case scenario last year’s 40-42 was.

21. Los Angeles Clippers (27th overall in 2010, 27th on offense, 21st on defense)

This is one of the first solid upside plays we have in this list.  I could see this team making the playoffs in an everything goes right sort of way.  The key is Blake Griffin.  After missing his entire rookie season, the slam dunk #1 pick of last season shows signs of being that sort of guy this year.  If he is the real thing, then the notoriously unfocused Baron Davis could match it also.  Even as he has gotten older, Davis to me is the best package of pure point guard skills in the game.  When he focuses and stops launching 3s, he dominates games like no other point can.  But he does it so rarely that we are staring a 21st ranked team.  There is a decent amount to like even if they ARE a laughingstock franchise and hiring a crappy coach like Vinny Del Negro.  Griffin and Eric Gordon are building blocks, Al-Farooq Aminu is one of the most talented guys in this draft class (raw but a great homerun swing) and Eric Bledsoe could be a great combination guard.  But it comes down to Baron.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: If Blake Griffin is the type of superstar that can get Baron Davis to be a superstar like he can be too.  This team has the parts of a dangerous playoff team … but bet on any Clippers team at your peril.

20. Philadelphia 76ers (25th overall in 2010, 20th offense, 24th defense)

It is funny what coaching can do.  Under Maurice Cheeks, this team was young, fast and energetic.  Sure they couldn’t shoot, but they could defend and out-athlete more veteran opponents.  But their offense lacked, so the management picks up Eddie Jordan.  But the management forgot Eddie Jordan has no concept of coaching defense.  The accountability was gone and these guys fell like a rock.  Enter Doug Collins.  Collins, ever the ambulance chaser, comes out of his cushy TNT gig to try to rescue the team he played for.  Collins is a great rebuilder, but notoriously bad with young players.  Jrue Holliday is the youngest, and Evan Turner, the 2nd overall pick this year is no grizzled vet either.  Will Collins tear them a new Kwame Brown?  One hopes not, because if their confidence is not shattered (and Evan Turner is a legitimate solid fringe all-star sort as he seems to profile), they have pieces.  Andre Iguodala is a terrific glue guy, Louis Williams is a solid combo guard, Maresse Speights is a terrific post scorer.  The players under Collins will be accountable, and he has always been able to develop underachieving veterans (witness his tour in Detroit).  This team will be better just by having defensive accountability.  That said, I am not sure if they have solved their shooting problems which is years old now.  The Sixers were the 22nd ranked TS% team, and while they might get to the line more now (only 2 teams went less), they still do not have much shooting.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Thaddeus Young or Jrue Holliday make the leap based on their talent, Elton Brand steps in the way back machine and Doug Collins works his Doug Collins miracle while not turning Holliday or Evan Turner into a fetal puddle of goo.  Evan Turner also has to be that point forward/Brandon Roy type and not an overrated non athlete who succeeded due to being in a non athletic Big Ten.  Someone needs to shoot the ball too.  

19. Charlotte Bobcats (14th overall in 2010, 24th offense, 2nd defense)

This is the team I am most confident that I will underestimate.  If Doug Collins in an ambulance chasing miracle worker, Larry Brown positively has healing hands.  Look at that roster.  When Gerald Wallace or Stephen Jackson is your best player, this is not the stuff of a title winner.  There is still a lack of wow on this team, even if they were the first team to really tap into the physical gifts of Tyrus Thomas.  Out is Raymond Felton at the point and in is the oft-injured Shawn Livingston.  Livingston has the talent to be a terrific big point guard, but his lack of shooting ability limits his ceiling.  Besides that, with no first rounder infused into the team, only Thomas’ improvement provides hope offensively – that and cutting down their league worst turnover rate.  Owner Michael Jordan could suit up again and be a net positive with this bunch (it’d better than him as a General Manager).  But somehow Larry Brown persists, and he makes this mishmash competitive by using good position defense that does a good job defending (3rd best forced turnover rate) without fouling.  (lowest FT rate allowed in the league and 2nd at defending 3 pointers). 

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They could let the 2010 Phoenix Suns play offense for them.  This is such a weird mishmash of mediocre talent and unproven upside that Larry Brown getting them 44 wins a year ago is a major league miracle.  He might get 50 wins this year with his skill for all I know.  But this is not the roster with that sort of ceiling, and given Michael Jordan’s work as a GM both here and in Washington, he is not someone you can immediately assume will identify that ceiling. (Adam Morrison, cough cough)


2010 NBA Draft: Trades and More

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Well, so much for the wisdom of my mock draft notions.  However, the trades continue – and almost all of them were driven by money.  We saw Chicago and Miami seriously clear the deck to possibly add one of the monster free agents.   We also saw a smaller, leaner team like Oklahoma City take advantage of the financial aid.  So let’s go through the trades and where we end up.  We discussed some of them previously, but now for draft night itself.

Chicago Bulls send Kirk Hinrich and the 17th pick (Kevin Serraphin) to the Washington Wizards for a future 2nd round pick: In other words, the Bulls drove Kirk Hinrich to O’Hare in order to get themselves a chance to get 2 of the big kahuna free agents.  Obviously if this nets Lebron and Chris Bosh, this is a major win.  That said, the Wizards did pretty well.  One can quibble on the cash, but the Wizards got a young raw body in Serraphin they could try to develop or stuff overseas – and Hinrich is a very useful 3rd guard to go with Arenas and Wall.  The Wizards might suck next year, but there will be hope and interest.

New Orleans Hornets trade the 11th pick (Cole Aldrich) and Morris Peterson to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 21st pick (Craig Brackins) and the 26th pick (Quincy Pondexter): The Hornets were up against the luxury tax – and these problems endangered the ability to keep the team together, and perhaps made a previously unfathomable Chris Paul trade even theoretically possible.  Fortunately for real NBA fans this might have been averted.  Of course count on the Oklahoma City Thunder and Sam Presti to pounce on the chance to play the draft game.  The Thunder need more bench scoring and more size – Peterson can supply the former.  Cole Aldrich is not a star – but he is one of the surest things in the draft.  He is a rotation player.  The Hornets with Pondexter get an elite athlete and defender, and Craig Brackins has the inside-outside potential to be a good stretch-4 in the league.  Considering they did this deal for financial reasons – they got a solid talent haul.

Oklahoma City Thunder send the 18th pick (Eric Bledsoe) to the Los Angeles Clippers for a lottery protected future #1: Bill Belichick would have wept with joy at this trade.  The Thunder, seeing limited possibilities in this draft, end up spinning Bledsoe to the Clippers for a protected pick.  This keeps them with future draft assets, and if the Clippers make the playoffs it will be as a low seed so what the hell.  For the Clippers, they do get a talented guy who can possibly spell Baron Davis.

Dallas Mavericks trade cash to the Memphis Grizzlies for the 25th pick (Dominique Jones): The Grizzlies had a bunch of picks – they did not want to pay them all, so this made sense – though an international stash might have been better in a stronger international year.  Why the Mavericks moved up to get a guy who replicates what Jason Terry and Rodrique Beaubois do?  Hey, it’s Cuban’s money.

Dallas Mavericks trade the 50th pick (Solomon Alabi) to the Toronto Raptors for a future 2nd round pick and cash: Another roster spot the Mavs did not want to pay.  For the Raptors, who are so size deprived, this was a no brainer.  It’s a shot in the dark – but unlike a first rounder there is no onerous contract to worry about.

Atlanta Hawks trade the 24th pick (Damion James) to the New Jersey Nets for the 27th pick (Jordan Crawford) and the 31st pick (Tibor Pleiss) -  the Hawks spin the 31st pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder for cash: Damion James is a nice player – one of the most NBA ready guys, though his upside is limited.  What is hard to understand is why the Nets dealt a valuable pick (#31) to move up 3 spots in the draft.  The marginal value of the move up is nil.  Jordan Crawford has much more upside than James does.  The Hawks wanted cash more than another player, so of course the Thunder swoop in to clean up the mess and collect another asset to stash overseas.

Minnesota Timberwolves trade the 16th pick (Luke Babbitt) and Ryan Gomes to the Portland TrailBlazers for Martell Webster: This is another curious deal.  Gomes is a useful and only partially guaranteed deal.  Luke Babbitt has as much upside as any wing in the draft.  Martell Webster is a promising young player – but has not really shown that wow.  How this is a fair match I don’t know.  Given that Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard was doing this after being told he would be canned – this is a much better deal than his employers deserve.

Minnesota Timberwolves trade the 23rd pick (Trevor Booker) and the 56th pick (Hamadi Ndiaye) to the Washington Wizards for the 30th pick (Lazar Hayward) and 35th pick (Nemanja Bjeilca): I have no opinion on this.  Booker can play – but I was surprised the Wizards agreed so much.

Indiana Pacers trade the 57th pick (Ryan Reid) and cash to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 51st pick (Magnum Rolle): Rolle is 24, but athletic and tall.  Pacers need that.  I have no idea who Reid is.  

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Overall, the Blazers, Thunder and Celtics (who got Avery Bradley – a Monta Ellis talent – with more defense – and Luke Harangody who profiles as the type of player NBA types undervalue) managed the exercise nicely.  The Timberwolves were full of sound and fury – but not sure where it took them.  And then there are the pants (h/t Esquire):

NBA Trade Deadline: The Next Batch

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More trades trickle in …

  • Knicks get Brian Cardinal, Timberwolves get Darko Milicic

The beer league softball MVP look-alike was immediately cut by the Knicks, so you know what sort of esteem they held his basketball skills in.  That said, it does save them some money – and it wasn’t like Darko was playing.  The Timberwolves of course, well … I don’t know what they are doing.  If Darko has an NBA future – ok ok, I can’t rationalize.

  • Bucks get John Salmons and the right to swap picks outside of the Top 10 in this year’s draft, Bulls get Hakim Warrick, Joe Alexander

The Bulls did really well.  Initially this deal was Kurt Thomas and Francisco Elson – which was just cap relief.  But these guys might actually help – especially Hakim Warrick – bonus!  With the expiring contracts the Bulls hoard more cap space to possibly go after Dwayne Wade.  In the short run, losing Salmons, a key rotation player, adversely affects their playoff chances.  But it is a hard move to fault.

For the Bucks, the deal makes some sense.  Salmons impacts them positively.  He is a capable starting wing – and with Jennings and Bogut, the team’s defense will be solid.  Bucks have looked like a potential playoff team so far, at least in the East.  Their fans could benefit by some progress – and this is a good step forward without screwing their long term contract situation up.

  • Cavaliers get Antawn Jamison and Sebastian Telfair, Wizards get Al Thornton, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Emir Preldzic and Cleveland’s 2010 first rounder, Clippers get Drew Gooden

Lot of cap stories here.  Ilgauskas and Gooden will be bought out.  The Cavaliers obviously wanted Jamison.  He offers rebounding and perimeter shooting they do not have in a big man.  He is a good fit with the bigs they have, and with his ability to score without overhandling, he is a great fit with a creative force like LeBron.  They have a lot of money to pay in this deal, as Telfair will probably cash in his player option next season.  He is of no use to them, but will be an expense.  Ilgauskas is a prime candidate to re-sign with the Cavs, but who knows there?  But this improves them no doubt.  The Wizards get more cap relief with Ilgauskas’ expiring deal.  Al Thornton represents some actual young talent.  From what I can tell, the upside is low, but he is a capable rotation player.  The draft pick probably won’t be high impact – but it’s something, and of much more use to a talent starved Wiz team than it was to Cleveland.

The NBA Trade Deadline – Two So Far

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With the NBA Trade Deadline coming up at 3 PM tomorrow, the league is at an uncertain point.  Allegedly, a lot of teams are floundering financially and are willing to sell players off.  Contenders of course need more talent, and are trying to use expiring deals and cash to make it happen.  Of course, how many deals actually go down will be interesting – contenders seem to be trying to go for the fleecing deals where a smaller talent margin might help more.  So far two deals:

  • Wizards get: Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, Quinton Ross and James Singleton … Mavericks get Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, DeShawn Stevenson

The Wizards begin their sell-off.  Haywood was the Wizards best player this year, but he is ultimately a good but low impact center.  Butler has been awful this season, sporting a poor 13.63 PER and shooting a dicey 41.8%.  He is also a bad defender and part of the selfishness that caused a Wizards team to be 22nd in the league in offense despite having Gil Arenas, Mike Miller and Antawn Jamison on the floor.  The Wizards get expiring contracts in Gooden, Ross, Singleton and Howard (whose 2011 is not guaranteed).   That said, the deal clears a lot off their cap, but they are still over the luxury tax number by 3 million, and still not below the cap (thus able to participate in the free agent market fully).  They still have work to do, but the deal accomplishes what was intended.

For Dallas, the deal seems like a lateral move to me.  Haywood is an improvement on Dampier to a degree, but given that Dirk should be a smallball center at times, it seems like overkill.  Not sure if it helps much.  Caron Butler has been awful – and really aside from health is not an improvement over Josh Howard at least so far this season.  DeShawn Stevenson’s corpse is there to match salaries.  Ultimately the job is to close the gap on Denver and LA, and this deal does not do that.

  • Blazers get Marcus Camby … Clippers get Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw and $$

This deal is a good match for both teams.  Camby is a free agent, and not getting younger.  He probably does not want to retire a Clipper.  So the Clippers converted him into value.  Steve Blake is a useful backup PG, and Travis Outlaw is a high ceiling player and the Clippers get his Bird rights (basically the ability to give a giant raise).  At least Outlaw is a trade asset, and maybe more.  The Blazers of course had such horrible luck with the Oden and Pryzbilla injuries.  They might not be contenders as snakebitten as they have been, but they have a winning record and should make the playoffs.  They owe their fans a chance to go for it – and so they got a center on a short hitch basically for free – or certainly not for assets they would miss.  It is not a conference tilting trade, but the Blazers improved at a low cost.

Week 4 NBA Power Rankings

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If you want to know, how I do this, check here.  Otherwise, cut to the chase:

Some observations:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Blazers 11 5 102.334 (6) 93.088 (2) 1.75 2.779 (21) 13.774
2 Hawks 11 3 105.086 (3) 98.108 (15) 1.75 4.742 (8) 13.47
3 Celtics 10 4 100.925 (10) 91.466 (1) 1.5 1.383 (28) 12.341
4 Nuggets 9 4 104.52 (4) 98.334 (16) 2.154 3.427 (15) 11.767
5 Lakers 10 3 98.444 (18) 93.356 (3) 0.808 5.614 (3) 11.51
6 Rockets 8 6 101.272 (8) 97.809 (13) 2 5.05 (4) 10.513
7 Mavericks 10 3 100.29 (14) 94.603 (5) 1.885 2.931 (18) 10.502
8 Suns 11 3 107.45 (1) 102.923 (26) 2.25 2.884 (19) 9.661
9 Magic 11 3 101.004 (9) 95.636 (8) 1.75 2.123 (25) 9.24
10 Cavaliers 10 4 101.303 (7) 96.016 (10) 1.75 1.35 (29) 8.388
11 Spurs 6 6 103.34 (5) 100.678 (19) 1.167 4.384 (12) 8.213
12 Thunder 7 7 96.295 (23) 95.121 (6) 2 5.021 (5) 8.196
13 Heat 8 5 100.051 (15) 95.769 (9) 1.077 2.826 (20) 8.184
14 Raptors 6 8 106.949 (2) 108.37 (30) 2 4.844 (7) 5.422
15 Jazz 7 6 100.553 (13) 101.558 (20) 1.885 4.429 (11) 5.309
16 Bucks 8 4 98.182 (19) 95.173 (7) 1.458 0.374 (30) 4.841
17 Kings 5 8 100.801 (12) 102.83 (25) 1.885 4.655 (10) 4.511
18 Pistons 5 9 97.757 (22) 100.2 (18) 2.25 4.34 (13) 4.147
19 Bulls 6 7 92.821 (27) 96.911 (12) 2.154 5.637 (2) 3.7
20 Clippers 6 9 98.073 (20) 98.483 (17) 1.4 2.645 (22) 3.635
21 Pacers 5 6 95.87 (24) 96.602 (11) 1.273 2.421 (24) 2.963
22 Hornets 6 9 99.999 (16) 105.027 (29) 1.867 6.055 (1) 2.894
23 Warriors 4 8 100.84 (11) 104.779 (28) 2.042 3.022 (16) 1.125
24 Bobcats 4 9 89.232 (28) 94.207 (4) 1.885 3.675 (14) 0.585
25 Wizards 3 9 95.236 (25) 102.245 (23) 2.042 4.911 (6) -0.056
26 Grizzlies 5 9 99.087 (17) 104.196 (27) 1.75 3.019 (17) -0.341
27 Sixers 5 8 97.832 (21) 102.567 (24) 1.615 1.545 (27) -1.574
28 Knicks 3 10 95.121 (26) 101.56 (21) 1.346 2.609 (23) -2.485
29 Nets 0 13 86.528 (30) 97.956 (14) 1.885 2.047 (26) -7.497
30 Timberwolves 1 13 87.692 (29) 101.699 (22) 1.75 4.725 (9) -7.532

Some of this week’s takeaways:

  • Given that the Celtics last year started out 27-3, that there is not one 2 loss team left this early in the season is kind of striking. The teams we expected to suck out loud (Grizzlies, Griffin-less Clippers, I’m looking at you) are actually just ordinarily mediocre.
  • A new #1 emerges in Portland.  The Celtics slip to #3 on the strength (weakness) of a ghastly shooting night against the Magic and a very mediocre effort against the Knicks (and frankly, a fairly desultory one against the Warriors).  As a fan, I was getting used to my Lester Hudson sightings.
  • Blazers winning on the strength of an efficient 6th ranked offense, which might not be highlighted by announcers because of their very slow tempo (2nd to last in the league).  Their 2nd ranked defense has been a revelation too – Greg Oden is quietly having an outstanding season – and if he knew how to play without fouling, Bill Simmons’ homoerotic Kevin Durant love would be kind of unfounded.
  • Wow the Timberwolves are bad.  With a good PG in Sessions and an interesting rookie in Flynn and a very capable post player, how they are so constipated offensively is hard to fathom.  At least the Nets have been ravaged by injuries. (btw: how can Lawrence Frank be on the chopping block when his entire starting five and only all star has been hurt most of the season?)
  • Rockets are #6 still – and still, I am stunned.