Tag Archives: Jaguars

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NFL Power Rankings – Week 5

In a strange week of upsets and strange blowouts, we get strange impacts.  The formula is pretty simple, a team’s rating is:

50% their scoring margin (with blowout margins getting less credit)

50% opponents scoring margin against other teams (i.e. factoring out the results against that team)

The Steelers have been #1 all season with the combination of schedule strength and results.  With this being their bye week, not much changed.  There were some shakeups though:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Steelers 3 1 0 20.917 10.229 1 1
2 Jets 4 1 0 14.6 2.4 12 2
3 Titans 3 2 0 12.842 4.042 6 7
4 Ravens 4 1 0 12.45 6.35 2 4
5 Colts 3 2 0 11.383 2.283 13 9
6 Patriots 3 1 0 11.073 0.885 18 6
7 Falcons 4 1 0 10.1 0 26 10
8 Packers 3 2 0 9.963 1.863 16 8
9 Chiefs 3 1 0 9.625 2.875 8 3
10 Lions 1 4 0 8.829 4.929 3 21
11 Chargers 2 3 0 7.988 -0.613 27 5
12 Bears 4 1 0 7.633 1.933 15 18
13 Eagles 3 2 0 6.325 0.475 22 11
14 Giants 3 2 0 5.675 2.675 10 24
15 Broncos 2 3 0 4.158 4.458 5 13
16 Vikings 1 3 0 3.604 2.854 9 23
17 Cowboys 1 3 0 3.531 3.281 7 14
18 Redskins 3 2 0 3.033 2.233 14 12
19 Browns 1 4 0 2.325 4.725 4 19
20 Bengals 2 3 0 2.067 0.367 24 16
21 Seahawks 2 2 0 0.391 -0.859 29 17
22 Bucs 3 1 0 -0.979 -1.229 30 25
23 Texans 3 2 0 -1.425 0.775 20 15
24 Rams 2 3 0 -2.454 -1.904 31 20
25 Raiders 2 3 0 -3.125 0.075 25 28
26 Saints 3 2 0 -3.763 -4.563 32 22
27 Dolphins 2 2 0 -3.99 0.76 21 26
28 Jaguars 3 2 0 -4.15 0.45 23 27
29 49ers 0 5 0 -6.196 2.504 11 29
30 Cardinals 3 2 0 -6.338 1.313 17 30
31 Panthers 0 5 0 -11.033 -0.833 28 32
32 Bills 0 5 0 -12.525 0.875 19 31

The noteworthy items?

  • The Lions are almost certainly not a Top 10 team, but a 44-6 result will do that for you.  Mix some close results against decent teams in … the long run ought to solve this – but we have not reached the long run yet.
  • Chiefs fall to 9, but they do look like a Top 10 defense at least against the Colts.  Matt Cassel though does not smell like a QB for this caliber of team though.
  • Three 3-2 teams in the bottom 8.  When you don’t beat anybody who is demonstrably good, this will happen.  Saints are better than this – I am not sure the Cardinals and Jags are though.
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NFL Power Rankings – Week 3

As has been explained before, the rankings are 50% a team’s margin of victory – 50% the other team’s scoring margin against everybody else.  After 28 points, additional points are only counted half up to 42.  Thus, the best a team can do for a given game is 38.5 points (a 6 touchdown win on the road).  So theoretically the best possible score is 77 (win all your games by 42 points against teams who beat their other opponents on the road by 42).  With that sort of scale in mind, the week 3 rundown:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Steelers 3 0 0 32.667 17.417 1 1
2 Falcons 2 1 0 21.625 9.958 2 2
3 Packers 2 1 0 19.458 6.792 4 4
4 Titans 2 1 0 18.375 5.208 6 9
5 Jets 2 1 0 15.417 7.25 3 8
6 Bears 3 0 0 12.667 6.5 5 13
7 Colts 2 1 0 11.667 0 21 6
8 Chiefs 3 0 0 10.167 -1 27 5
9 Eagles 2 1 0 9.417 0.167 20 9
10 Chargers 1 2 0 9.333 3.333 11 7
11 Ravens 2 1 0 8.333 5 7 17
12 Texans 2 1 0 5.417 4.583 9 3
13 Cowboys 1 2 0 4.5 1.833 13 22
14 Patriots 2 1 0 4.417 0.583 16 16
15 Seahawks 2 1 0 3.417 -2.75 30 19
16 Vikings 1 2 0 2.75 -0.083 23 14
17 Saints 2 1 0 2.75 -0.083 23 26
18 Dolphins 2 1 0 2.25 -0.417 25 23
19 Browns 0 3 0 2.083 3.75 10 11
20 Bengals 2 1 0 1.417 -2.25 29 25
21 Broncos 1 2 0 0.333 0.5 17 12
22 Lions 0 3 0 -0.125 4.875 8 20
23 Redskins 1 2 0 -1.833 0.667 15 18
24 Rams 1 2 0 -3.542 -7.375 31 32
25 Bucs 2 1 0 -3.583 -1.75 28 15
26 Raiders 1 2 0 -5.208 0.458 18 29
27 Cardinals 2 1 0 -6.917 0 21 27
28 Giants 1 2 0 -8.5 0.333 19 28
29 Bills 0 3 0 -8.667 2.333 12 24
30 49ers 0 3 0 -12.667 1.333 14 30
31 Jaguars 1 2 0 -13.917 -0.75 26 20
32 Panthers 0 3 0 -23 -11.167 32 31

Some observations for the week?

  • The Steelers stay at the top with their win over TB.  Their three opponents have not lost to anyone else.  Right now the defense has carried them – I don’t think Tampa will be a good team for much longer, but the model does not know that.
  • The big leaps of the week go to Dallas and New Orleans.  The latter might be a surprise, but the Falcons become the best team they’ve played, by far – and that combined with the close result lifted the ship quite a bit.
  • On the negative side, the Jaguars 11 spot drop is the worst of the week – a decisive loss combined with losses by previous opponents cause the double whammy.  Bucs felt it also.
  • The Panthers and 49ers remain lousy – though now the Jaguars join them.