Tag Archives: Kansas City

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2011 NFL Power Rankings #1

Fortunately, in contrast to college, the NFL power ranking schedule data comes in nice and quick.  With no byes to be had – the two game minimum needed (so each opponent has another opponent to use for SoS measure) comes nice and quick.  In any case, the lecture on the pairwise comparison method is used this year, similar to the crap we are doing with college teams.  In any case, we’ll keep the first ranking short and sweet:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Jets 2 0 1 (1) 23.25 (5) 28
2 Redskins 2 0 0.875 (2) 20.5 (6) 26
3 Cowboys 1 1 0.725 (7) 29.25 (1) 25
4 Packers 2 0 0.813 (4) 19.5 (7) 25
5 Raiders 1 1 0.725 (7) 24.375 (3) 23
6 Patriots 2 0 0.813 (4) 17.75 (9) 22
7 Lions 2 0 0.813 (4) 12.875 (11) 21
8 Saints 1 1 0.625 (11) 24 (4) 20
9 Texans 2 0 0.688 (9) 12.75 (12) 19
10 Titans 1 1 0.563 (12) 12 (13) 18
11 Bills 2 0 0.875 (2) 6.375 (18) 16
12 Bengals 1 1 0.538 (15) 15.25 (10) 15
13 Cardinals 1 1 0.563 (12) 11.75 (15) 15
14 Ravens 1 1 0.438 (18) 25.5 (2) 14
15 Bucs 1 1 0.438 (18) 19.5 (7) 13
16 Broncos 1 1 0.463 (17) 10 (16) 12
17 Bears 1 1 0.563 (12) 5.5 (19) 12
18 Chargers 1 1 0.438 (18) 8.5 (17) 11
19 Jaguars 1 1 0.688 (9) -0.5 (24) 10
20 Falcons 1 1 0.438 (18) 2.25 (22) 9
21 Eagles 1 1 0.413 (22) 2.5 (21) 8
22 Dolphins 0 2 0.313 (25) 12 (13) 7
23 Giants 1 1 0.5 (16) -4.25 (25) 7
24 Browns 1 1 0.375 (23) -6.75 (26) 6
25 Steelers 1 1 0.313 (25) -7.75 (27) 4
26 Panthers 0 2 0.25 (28) 3.5 (20) 4
27 49ers 1 1 0.275 (27) 0 (23) 4
28 Vikings 0 2 0.125 (29) -9 (28) 3
29 Colts 0 2 0.125 (29) -10.5 (29) 2
30 Chiefs 0 2 0.375 (23) -25.125 (31) 1
31 Rams 0 2 0.063 (31) -15.25 (30) 1
32 Seahawks 0 2 0 (32) -26.75 (32) 0

Some of the observations from two weeks of data?

  1. Despite being outscored 89-10 in two games, the Chiefs are not the worst team in the league.  Basically that their opponents have been slightly less horrible than the Seahawks and Rams puts them at #30.  However, any sort of mention of the Chiefs warrants sighs of despair – amazing they hosted a playoff game a year ago.
  2. The Jets at#1 is the combination of their own performance (2-0 of course) and their opponents solid performance in their other games.  With the 5th rated scoring margin, it feels like the fundamentals are there too (well small sample sizes notwithstanding).  Of course they are expected to win the AFC, so not exactly a bulletin here.
  3. Remember the model only knows what we have seen so far.  The Jets opponents will not be unbeaten against everyone else for instance.  Similarly, Seattle’s opponents will not remain this horrible – although Seattle very well might.
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2010 NFL Power Rankings – Final

Well, one week of the playoffs is already in the can … that said, for posterity’s sake, here are the final numbers:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Patriots 14 2 0 17.09 3.481 2 1
2 Packers 10 6 0 13.324 2.745 6 3
3 Steelers 12 4 0 12.965 2.653 9 4
4 Falcons 13 3 0 10.79 1.353 22 5
5 Chargers 9 7 0 9.833 0.833 24 2
6 Ravens 12 4 0 8.99 1.803 16 7
7 Jets 11 5 0 8.251 2.329 11 8
8 Eagles 10 6 0 7.571 2.164 12 6
9 Saints 11 5 0 6.634 0.29 28 9
10 Colts 10 6 0 6.559 1.872 14 10
11 Bears 11 5 0 6.182 1.666 20 13
12 Raiders 8 8 0 4.792 1.495 21 15
13 Giants 10 6 0 4.647 0.475 25 11
14 Titans 6 10 0 4.588 1.854 15 12
15 Lions 6 10 0 3.851 2.851 5 16
16 Chiefs 10 6 0 3.771 -0.479 30 14
17 Bucs 10 6 0 3.59 0.403 27 21
18 Texans 6 10 0 1.895 2.458 10 19
19 Dolphins 7 9 0 1.302 3.302 3 17
20 Cowboys 6 10 0 1.125 1.797 17 20
21 Browns 5 11 0 0.733 2.671 7 18
22 Bengals 4 12 0 0.317 3.755 1 27
23 Vikings 6 10 0 0.218 2.656 8 24
24 49ers 6 10 0 -0.447 0.459 26 28
25 Redskins 6 10 0 -0.87 1.974 13 26
26 Rams 7 9 0 -1.355 -0.871 31 25
27 Jaguars 8 8 0 -1.423 0.952 23 22
28 Bills 4 12 0 -3.284 3.231 4 23
29 Seahawks 7 9 0 -3.974 0.151 29 29
30 Broncos 4 12 0 -4.008 1.773 18 30
31 Cardinals 5 11 0 -8.242 -0.945 32 31
32 Panthers 2 14 0 -9.675 1.732 19 32

If we used the raw numbers from this thing for the wild card round, we would have had (without adjusting for home field):

Saints by 10.6 over the Seahawks, Jets by 1.8 over the Colts, Ravens by 5.2 over the Chiefs, Packers by 5.7 over the Eagles.  Pat on the back for me, even if my picks did not make the mark!

For the record, incorporating the Week 18 results, the raw numbers for this weekends matchups (the delta in “margin”):

Steelers by 2.8 over the Ravens, Packers by 2.6 over the Falcons, Patriots by 8.7 over the Jets, Bears by 9.3 over the Seahawks … picks to come later in the week

 

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2010 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round

Wow, it HAS been a while, hasn’t it? Anyhoo, Happy New Year to this teeny tiny following here, and I hope that your holidays have been good. Writing from India, obviously great blogging time has been intermittent. (Thus the dearth of power rankings) Of course, there will be posts covering that adventure forthcoming.

However, there is the business at hand, the wild card round and the four matches. With time a wastin before my flight tonight, time to get some wrong picks out there. This way if I am wrong, I have to be accountable – I did not attend Tom Coughlin’s school of blame shifting.

New Orleans Saints (-10.5) at Seattle Seahawks: It is hard for this to not offend my sensibility. The Seahawks of Pete Carroll, by virtue of their location in the truly execrable NFC West, rode a 7-9 record to a home game against the Saints. The Saints are considerable still, though lacking the creds of last year, in particular a decimated running back corps. The defense has been less turnover strong than a year ago. But come on! Even with home field, the Seabags were one of the league’s worst most of the season, and they were debating QBs for the game. The only question is if the Saints cover. Saints 34, Seahawks 17

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5): Rematch of last year’s AFC title game. The Jets are better, the Colts are worse. Now, the Jets have issues running consistently, while Mark Sanchez is beat up at quarterback. The defense is strong though. However the blitz heavy defense is made to order for Peyton Manning if his line can block. And they’ll have to with their injuries at skill positions and their near total inability to run. Peyton can make any prognosticator look bad, but the Jets have to be smarter in their defense this season, especially with a stronger cornerback tandem. Few points but Jets 20, Colts 14

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5): Rematch of week 1, but this might as well not be. That Eagle team thought Kevin Kolb would be starting. Instead we have the force of nature that is Mike Vick back in the playoffs for the first time in 6 seasons. The Eagles are the most dynamic offense in the league with unmatched big play ability from both passing and running avenues. The Packers have a big play defense and their own force of nature in Aaron Rodgers quarterbacking, but a line that gives him little help, and a total inability to run the football. The Eagles defense makes plays but gives points up, while their return and kicking game require no explanation. Anyway, this is clearly the best game of the weekend. The Eagles do just enough. Eagles 31, Packers 28

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs: The playoffs are back in Kansas City, which is neat. And this team is in line with what the 90s Martyball teams would love – running hard, passing smart, strong defense. Baltimore clearly is an elite team, especially when they keep the offense focused around Ray Rice like they did in their win over the Saints in Week 15. The defense gets the ink, but they have given up big ground games to opponents much of the year. In a lot of ways this is an offense driven Raven team between Flacco, Rice and their depth at receiver. Baltimore scares me as a Patriots fan but they have to advance first, and the Chiefs might be the wrong matchup. This is no fun without calling a surprise. Chiefs 23, Ravens 20

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NFL Power Rankings – Week 7

After six weeks, the Steelers fall from the #1 perch.  Their controversial escape from Miami motivates this to a degree, but really a team which has been covertly piling up good result after good result is now at the top.  As always, 50% a team’s scoring margin, 50% the opponents margin against other teams … and so, a very AFC heavy Top 10 …

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Titans 5 2 0 15.577 2.542 13 2
2 Steelers 5 1 0 15.546 4.671 1 1
3 Jets 5 1 0 12.014 0.597 23 3
4 Patriots 5 1 0 11.231 2.856 11 5
5 Colts 4 2 0 8.975 0.308 24 6
6 Chiefs 4 2 0 8.242 0.158 26 11
7 Falcons 5 2 0 8.162 1.448 19 7
8 Giants 5 2 0 7.851 3.208 9 9
9 Ravens 5 2 0 7.36 2.502 14 4
10 Chargers 2 5 0 7.173 1.387 20 13
11 Eagles 4 3 0 6.651 2.544 12 8
12 Packers 4 3 0 6.108 0.18 25 12
13 Lions 1 5 0 6.043 3.543 7 10
14 Bears 4 3 0 4.798 1.583 18 14
15 Vikings 2 4 0 4.321 3.404 8 15
16 Redskins 4 3 0 4.048 2.976 10 17
17 Cowboys 1 5 0 2.824 3.574 6 18
18 Browns 2 5 0 2.744 4.173 3 25
19 Texans 4 2 0 2.711 3.878 5 21
20 Seahawks 4 2 0 2.204 -1.713 31 19
21 Dolphins 3 3 0 1.878 4.128 4 24
22 Raiders 3 4 0 1.731 -0.34 29 27
23 Bengals 2 4 0 1.628 0.794 22 22
24 Rams 3 4 0 0.379 -0.014 27 23
25 Saints 4 3 0 -0.457 -3.207 32 20
26 Broncos 2 5 0 -1.494 4.292 2 16
27 49ers 1 6 0 -3.357 1.643 16 26
28 Bucs 4 2 0 -4.035 -0.201 28 28
29 Cardinals 3 3 0 -5.422 2.369 15 29
30 Jaguars 3 4 0 -8.195 1.59 17 30
31 Panthers 1 5 0 -9.61 -1.61 30 31
32 Bills 0 6 0 -10.056 1.028 21 32

Some observations from this week’s madness?

  • One of my friends on Facebook complained about the Eagles being rated lower than the Falcons despite a head to head victory.  My standard response is that the model does not know how good the teams are.  Each week’s results reveal that – so an early victory gets better or worse with age.  This obviously is unfair to injury cases, but you have to take that as it is.  Also games like Detroit’s 44-6 win over the Rams and this weeks Raiders pasting of Denver skew a bit.
  • The plunge of the week was Denver sliding to 26.  I don’t think much needs to be said.
  • Big mover is Cleveland, with as stunning a result as Oakland’s.  And, to be fair, they have competed fairly well – and Peyton Hillis has been a covert fantasy hero.  At the top of the charts, the mover is Kansas City – who week after week is proving that they might really be a good team.  Certainly nobody else in the AFC West is.
  • Chargers and Cowboys are the poster boys for punching below their weight.  The Chargers in particular have the fundamentals (#1 offense, #1 defense) of an elite team, but the wins have not followed.  Their #10 ranking is fair (the model sees what it sees) but obviously they have the losses to prove any sort of anecdotal “they suck” case.
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NFL Power Rankings – Week 5

In a strange week of upsets and strange blowouts, we get strange impacts.  The formula is pretty simple, a team’s rating is:

50% their scoring margin (with blowout margins getting less credit)

50% opponents scoring margin against other teams (i.e. factoring out the results against that team)

The Steelers have been #1 all season with the combination of schedule strength and results.  With this being their bye week, not much changed.  There were some shakeups though:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Steelers 3 1 0 20.917 10.229 1 1
2 Jets 4 1 0 14.6 2.4 12 2
3 Titans 3 2 0 12.842 4.042 6 7
4 Ravens 4 1 0 12.45 6.35 2 4
5 Colts 3 2 0 11.383 2.283 13 9
6 Patriots 3 1 0 11.073 0.885 18 6
7 Falcons 4 1 0 10.1 0 26 10
8 Packers 3 2 0 9.963 1.863 16 8
9 Chiefs 3 1 0 9.625 2.875 8 3
10 Lions 1 4 0 8.829 4.929 3 21
11 Chargers 2 3 0 7.988 -0.613 27 5
12 Bears 4 1 0 7.633 1.933 15 18
13 Eagles 3 2 0 6.325 0.475 22 11
14 Giants 3 2 0 5.675 2.675 10 24
15 Broncos 2 3 0 4.158 4.458 5 13
16 Vikings 1 3 0 3.604 2.854 9 23
17 Cowboys 1 3 0 3.531 3.281 7 14
18 Redskins 3 2 0 3.033 2.233 14 12
19 Browns 1 4 0 2.325 4.725 4 19
20 Bengals 2 3 0 2.067 0.367 24 16
21 Seahawks 2 2 0 0.391 -0.859 29 17
22 Bucs 3 1 0 -0.979 -1.229 30 25
23 Texans 3 2 0 -1.425 0.775 20 15
24 Rams 2 3 0 -2.454 -1.904 31 20
25 Raiders 2 3 0 -3.125 0.075 25 28
26 Saints 3 2 0 -3.763 -4.563 32 22
27 Dolphins 2 2 0 -3.99 0.76 21 26
28 Jaguars 3 2 0 -4.15 0.45 23 27
29 49ers 0 5 0 -6.196 2.504 11 29
30 Cardinals 3 2 0 -6.338 1.313 17 30
31 Panthers 0 5 0 -11.033 -0.833 28 32
32 Bills 0 5 0 -12.525 0.875 19 31

The noteworthy items?

  • The Lions are almost certainly not a Top 10 team, but a 44-6 result will do that for you.  Mix some close results against decent teams in … the long run ought to solve this – but we have not reached the long run yet.
  • Chiefs fall to 9, but they do look like a Top 10 defense at least against the Colts.  Matt Cassel though does not smell like a QB for this caliber of team though.
  • Three 3-2 teams in the bottom 8.  When you don’t beat anybody who is demonstrably good, this will happen.  Saints are better than this – I am not sure the Cardinals and Jags are though.
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NFL Power Rankings – Week 4

Four weeks in the books, and this past week got some real key results – the Steelers no longer being unbeaten and the Bears being undressed in New York in maybe the worst football game of the season so far.  Add in the Patriots well rounded demolition of Miami, and we get a lot of change. As always, 50% of the rating is average margin of victory with adjustments for home field and diminishing marginal returns (so running up the score has less value) and the other half is the average margin of victory of a team’s opponents in all the other games those opponents play. (i.e. a team’s 3 opponent rating is 50% based on the team’s effort, and 50% on the average margin of the 3 opponents in their other games against the other teams on their schedule to date)

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Steelers 3 1 0 20.708 10.021 1 1
2 Jets 3 1 0 14.604 1.604 16 5
3 Chiefs 3 0 0 14.278 3.111 9 8
4 Ravens 3 1 0 13.021 8.896 2 11
5 Chargers 2 2 0 12.042 0.167 22 10
6 Patriots 3 1 0 11.479 1.292 20 14
7 Titans 2 2 0 11.271 2.896 11 4
8 Packers 3 1 0 8.854 -1.146 28 3
9 Colts 2 2 0 8.417 -0.458 24 7
10 Falcons 3 1 0 8.354 -0.896 25 2
11 Eagles 2 2 0 5.688 0 23 9
12 Redskins 2 2 0 5.625 5.375 4 23
13 Broncos 2 2 0 4.958 2.708 12 21
14 Cowboys 1 2 0 4.833 2.167 14 13
15 Texans 3 1 0 4.479 1.229 21 12
16 Bengals 2 2 0 4.438 1.563 17 20
17 Seahawks 2 2 0 4.208 2.958 10 15
18 Bears 3 1 0 3.958 1.958 15 6
19 Browns 1 3 0 3.646 4.146 5 19
20 Rams 2 2 0 2.813 -4.313 31 24
21 Lions 0 4 0 0.708 4.083 6 22
22 Saints 3 1 0 0.333 -2.292 29 16
23 Vikings 1 2 0 0.167 -2.667 30 16
24 Giants 2 2 0 -1.75 1.375 19 28
25 Bucs 2 1 0 -2.833 -1 27 25
26 Dolphins 2 2 0 -3.188 1.563 17 18
27 Jaguars 2 2 0 -3.75 5.375 3 31
28 Raiders 1 3 0 -6.938 -0.938 26 26
29 49ers 0 4 0 -6.979 3.146 8 30
30 Cardinals 2 2 0 -9.563 2.5 13 27
31 Bills 0 4 0 -10.688 3.563 7 29
32 Panthers 0 4 0 -13.083 -4.583 32 32

Some observations:

  • The Chiefs are the last unbeaten – amazing.  They bubble up to #3 based on positive results by teams they’ve beaten, the Chargers and Browns specifically.
  • The Redskins probably are not this good.  But their win at Philadelphia paired with the Rams and Texans victories elevated them the most this week.  The Patriots did not have that sort of schedule jump, but their battering of Miami was big.
  • The plunge of the week thusly goes to Chicago after that disgrace in New York.  Add meh performances by Green Bay get you spiraling downward.
  • Despite the close loss to the Ravens, the Steelers hold the top for another week.  No team has played better against a better slate – for now.