Tag Archives: Knicks

by

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #10 – Final Report and Playoff Preview

First as you have probably seen from the last couple of entries, people still have Cystic Fibrosis – blah blah blah – click here to help …

FINALLY.  The best of the playoff seasons is upon us.  Of course this was after a truly execrable last couple of weeks of the season where teams were playing scrubs shamelessly while still charging full prices.  The Tuesday Celtics-Heat game was a particular atrocity.  So the rankings could be skewed a tiny bit.  But whatever, the playoffs are here and looks at the series are coming up … how have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (2) Bulls (50-16)
  2. (4) Spurs (50-16)
  3. (1) Thunder (47-19)
  4. (3) Heat (46-20)
  5. (5) Sixers (35-31)
  6. (10) Nugggets (38-28)
  7. (6) Celtics (39-27)
  8. (8) Hawks (40-26)
  9. (7) Grizzlies (41-25)
  10. (15) Clippers (40-26)
  11. (13) Mavericks (36-30)
  12. (9) Lakers (41-25)
  13. (14) Knicks (36-30)
  14. (16) Pacers (42-24)
  15. (11) Magic (37-29)
  16. (12) Rockets (34-32)
  17. (18) Suns (33-33)
  18. (20) Jazz (36-30)
  19. (19) Bucks (31-35)
  20. (17) Blazers (28-38)
  21. (21) Timberwolves (26-40)
  22. (22) Warriors (23-43)
  23. (24) Hornets (21-45)
  24. (23) Raptors (23-43)
  25. (25) Kings (22-44)
  26. (29) Wizards (20-46)
  27. (27) Pistons (25-42)
  28. (28) Nets (22-44)
  29. (26) Wizards (21-45)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-59)

It’s the playoffs!  So – quick looks at your first round series are in order:

  • (E1) Bulls v (E8) Sixers – This is #1 vs #5.  What a matchup!  However, the Sixers have really stumbled down the stretch, but the metrics have been strong as the Sixers blowouts early still have resonance.  The Bulls with Derrick Rose’s dicey injury situation could be great – but they could be tricky.  Defense will be the order of the day (#2 v #3) and neither team is great from outside.  I can’t imagine the Bulls losing this but the Sixers match up well with them, better than they do with the Heat.  Bulls in 7
  • (E4) Celtics v (E5) Hawks – #7 vs #8.  Interestingly here the lower seed has home court.  The Celtics have been very strong down the stretch.  But so have the Hawks, both in the Top 6 since the trade deadline.  The Celtics have serious issues with rebounding and size, but the Hawks are 26th in offensive rebounding, so it is hard to read that as a huge edge.  The games have all been close in their head to head.  Really more of a coin flip than the experts purport.  Hawks in 7
  • (E2) Heat v (E7) Knicks – #4 vs #13 Fun series with two defensively adept teams.  Anthony and LeBron will be a great matchup and the Novak/Smith bench for the Knicks could explode.  But it is hard to envision the Knicks winning in Miami.  This is a fun series but Heat in 6
  • (E3) Pacers v (E6) Magic – The Pacers have the 5th best record in the league but merely #14 in rankings.  This describes the Pacers in general – a nice team, lot of good players, but is this the juice to win a playoff series?  The Magic will be motivated with no Dwight Howard and “nobody believing in them”. Did the Pacers more competitive than it seemed result vs Chicago last year inform them or will the Magic’s winning experience do it?  Without Glen Davis, the Magic just don’t have enough players now – good or otherwise.  Pacers in 5
  • (W1) Spurs v (W8) Jazz – Spurs can flat out score, but the Jazz can attack with size.  Will the Spurs lose in round 1 again?  Frankly I’d have more faith in the Jazz if their defense was not so mediocre.  Against the buzz saw offense of San Antonio it is tough sledding.  Spurs in 5
  • (W4) Grizzlies v (W5) Clippers – Grizzlies are a sexy pick to upset the apple cart.  However this is not last year’s Zach Randolph.  Meanwhile the Clippers just have more better players and one of the game’s best all around players and leaders.  Look how the Hornets stole 2 games against the Lakers with Chris Paul and nobody – he is just that good.  In the playoffs, the stars play more.  Lob City is not done yet.  Clippers in 6
  • (W2) Thunder v (W7) Mavericks – Hard series to peg.  On paper, Thunder should rip through this.  In actuality, Dallas can throw a lot of junk D at them and make the Thunder really work for it.  But it won’t be enough.  Thunder in 7
  • (W3) Lakers v (W6) Nuggets – Denver has depth.  The Lakers don’t.  Denver has speed, and the Lakers have real issues with that.  But the Lakers have all the really good players here and their size and ability to dictate in the half court.  I hope Denver can make this fun.  I think the Lakers grind it out enough.  Lakers in 6
by

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #5

With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (1) Bulls (23-7)
  2. (3) Heat (22-7)
  3. (2) Sixers (20-9)
  4. (4) Thunder (21-6)
  5. (8) Spurs (19-9)
  6. (6) Hawks (18-10)
  7. (5) Blazers (15-13)
  8. (7) Nuggets (16-12)
  9. (13) Mavericks (18-11)
  10. (9) Lakers (16-12)
  11. (11) Clippers (17-9)
  12. (10) Celtics (15-12)
  13. (14) Rockets (16-12)
  14. (12) Pacers (17-10)
  15. (17) Magic (18-11)
  16. (15) Grizzlies (14-14)
  17. (16) Timberwolves (13-16)
  18. (18) Jazz (14-13)
  19. (21) Warriors (11-14)
  20. (19) Bucks (12-16)
  21. (22) Knicks (13-15)
  22. (20) Suns (12-16)
  23. (24) Cavaliers (10-16)
  24. (23) Hornets (5-23)
  25. (25) Raptors (9-20)
  26. (26) Kings (10-17)
  27. (28) Wizards (6-22)
  28. (27) Nets (8-21)
  29. (29) Pistons (8-21)
  30. (30) Bobcats (3-25)

Some notes:

  1. We start with a trip to Oakland and the league’s most Quixotic fans – Warriors fans.  For anybody who watched their shocking upset of the Mavericks in 2007, the ability of the fans to lift a team is palpable there – it sounded like the old Chicago Stadium, and that’s saying something.  Alas, that upset has been the extent of the highlights on the court.  Indeed the last few years we have had bad teams, but entertaining ones that could light up the scoreboard.  With Mark Jackson taking over as coach, there was a commitment to a more defense, championship timber club.  What is interesting though is that the defensive culture in Golden State is still as lax as ever – while the offense is actually much better.  The numbers are a bit muted as these Warriors are middle of the road in terms of pace – but this is the most efficient offense (relative to the league) Golden State has had recently.  What is particularly interesting comparing side by side is how little things have changed.  They still shoot the three both very well and very frequently.  They still don’t get to the line hardly at all – and they are a pretty shaky rebounding team (and indeed substantially worse offensively).  However – they take care of the ball a bit better and are shooting their 2-pointers a lot better, enough to be 4th in the league in FG%.  This is also though a harbinger of rough times maybe – 2 pt FG% is pretty fickle, and one thinks there might be some regression coming.  Scanning the personnel, it is not like there is a huge change in the shape of the offense.  The defense as mentioned before is as bad as ever – and they are still a horrendous defensive rebounding side, and are near the bottom in sending opponents to the line.  Jackson has the team gambling less defensively – but it has not shown in the final results.  The Warriors have a ways to go for the positive changes in ownership to reflect in the product.
  2. Checking in at 18-11, and starting to move up the ladder are the Magic.  Of course 2 weeks ago, we left them with a disastrous week, featuring a 56 point outing at Boston and blown 27 point lead hosting Boston (yay Boston).  Since then though the Magic have perked up.  Really, we always hear about the psychodrama surrounding Dwight Howard – but possibly he has found some contentment (or resignation) in the current situation.  Despite the Magic’s offensive issues a couple of weeks back, where they had been struggling was on the defensive end of the floor.  Last year the Magic were 3rd in the league defensively despite having very little defensive muscle besides Howard.  Earlier in the year the team had been scuffling, but we see them up to 12th now.  The Magic in the past have focused on defending without fouling (not gambling) and superior rebounding.  This year, the rebounding has been there but the attention to detail in defense has not – but it has improved.  Magic up to a reasonable 11th in FG%, and so up their fortunes have come with it.
  3. This week’s edition would be incomplete without noting the jump the Knicks have made.  I have no real metric argument here, just a chance to rant a bit on Jeremy Lin.  The Knicks themselves are still a shaky offensive team with a surprisingly good defense considering D’Antoni’s reputation (2nd in the league in forced turnovers, 7th in defensive rebounding – they just don’t give up a ton of looks at the basket which makes up for their meh FG%).  But Lin of course has had the best first 4 starts in league history.  You have to be realistic of course – he is not this good, very few players are.  That said, he is 6’3″ 200 lbs – basically Chauncey Billups’ size.  He has a lot of steals, rebounds, gets to the line a lot.  Unlike most small school kids, he is an elite athlete.  He needs to shoot better, but that you can improve.  Lin is a rotation caliber PG right now, and the Knicks have none of those – and there is no reason he cannot be a solid starter for a long time.
  4. The big move up this week has been Dallas.  At 18-11, it is amazing to see Rick Carlisle cobble together this start despite the issues they had with conditioning and injuries.  More amazing is how despite losing Tyson Chandler, the Mavericks have remade themselves into a defensive juggernaut.  They are 18-11 against a solid schedule despite being 20th in offense (still not getting to the line, still not getting second shots, but now missing the shots they DO take).  Instead the historically underwhelming (or undervalued) Mavs D is carrying them this year.  Yeah Odom has sucked on offense, but he is a very useful defender.  So is Vince Carter despite his reputation, and Brendan Haywood has successfully impersonated a competent C this year.  All that adds up to a team that is 3rd in FG defense and 5th in forcing turnovers.  The Mavs are top 10 in TS% and shot prevention – and that has allowed them to survive themselves.  Given the reputations and past performances of their top guys on offense – this is nothing but good news for the long term.
by

2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 19

Our first rankings update after absorbing some real trade deadline results.  Obviously, the “SMALL SAMPLE SIZE” alert flashes in neon, but it is interesting to see if teams have gotten out of things what they wanted.  First, the total body of work – the methodology is here:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Spurs 51 12 103.965 (2) 96.639 (7) 1.722 1.865 (10) 10.913
2 Lakers 45 19 103.536 (3) 96.647 (8) 1.859 1.446 (28) 10.195
3 Heat 43 20 103.155 (4) 96.263 (6) 1.833 1.45 (27) 10.175
4 Celtics 46 15 100.253 (13) 93.382 (2) 1.664 1.49 (26) 10.025
5 Bulls 44 18 98.899 (17) 92.653 (1) 1.75 1.737 (20) 9.733
6 Magic 40 24 101.229 (10) 95.455 (4) 1.586 1.773 (16) 9.133
7 Mavericks 46 17 102.903 (7) 98.482 (13) 1.722 1.84 (11) 7.983
8 Nuggets 37 27 104.282 (1) 101.333 (20) 1.695 1.896 (9) 6.541
9 Thunder 39 23 103.125 (5) 100.734 (16) 1.75 2.333 (2) 6.475
10 Hornets 37 29 98.479 (20) 95.843 (5) 1.909 1.835 (12) 6.38
11 Sixers 32 30 99.674 (15) 97.211 (9) 1.75 1.192 (29) 5.404
12 Knicks 33 29 103.005 (6) 101.314 (19) 1.75 1.545 (25) 4.987
13 Rockets 33 32 102.857 (8) 101.614 (22) 1.885 1.757 (17) 4.884
14 Grizzlies 36 29 99.031 (16) 97.996 (10) 1.831 1.995 (6) 4.861
15 Blazers 36 27 99.716 (14) 99.205 (15) 1.778 1.745 (19) 4.035
16 Suns 32 29 102.585 (9) 102.121 (24) 1.779 1.785 (15) 4.027
17 Hawks 37 26 98.749 (18) 98.46 (11) 1.889 1.03 (30) 3.207
18 Jazz 33 31 100.368 (11) 101.23 (18) 1.695 1.736 (21) 2.568
19 Bucks 23 38 93.737 (30) 95.306 (3) 1.721 1.955 (7) 2.108
20 Pacers 27 35 96.974 (23) 98.468 (12) 1.75 1.553 (24) 1.809
21 Warriors 27 35 100.366 (12) 102.91 (27) 1.694 2.13 (5) 1.279
22 Bobcats 26 37 95.799 (25) 98.713 (14) 1.778 1.68 (23) 0.543
23 Clippers 24 40 97.3 (22) 101.538 (21) 1.695 2.197 (3) -0.346
24 Pistons 23 41 98.701 (19) 103.049 (28) 1.695 1.729 (22) -0.924
25 Timberwolves 15 50 96.762 (24) 102.301 (25) 1.723 1.809 (13) -2.007
26 Kings 15 46 95.542 (26) 101.227 (17) 1.664 1.747 (18) -2.274
27 Raptors 17 46 98.426 (21) 104.423 (29) 1.722 1.914 (8) -2.36
28 Nets 19 43 95.522 (27) 101.716 (23) 1.75 1.799 (14) -2.645
29 Wizards 16 46 94.707 (29) 102.436 (26) 1.694 2.166 (4) -3.869
30 Cavaliers 12 50 94.757 (28) 105.123 (30) 1.75 2.362 (1) -6.254

Sure, life is good now that the Heat are losing, right? Certainly their miserable week has been expounded on plenty.  But what else has been trending?

  • Curiously, the Nuggets since dealing Carmelo, are your #2 ranked team in the past week.  Most notable has been their defense.  Entering the deadline, they were allowing 101.8 points per pace adjusted game, 21st in the league.  In the small time since the new guys have come in – Denver has dropped to 90.5 points allowed.  Whether this is sustainable or not is anyone’s guess – but with Billups and Melo gone, the team is more athletic – and perhaps the sort of team Karl has been more successful with anyway.
  • The Bobcats, after dealing Nazr Mohammed and Gerald Wallace, basically are without players I have heard of (ok, that’s a lie – but only because I have no life).  One presumes they want to rebuild – and with their dead last performance since the deal, they might have gotten the non-playoffs they are looking for.
  • A team that notably didn’t deal, the Lakers, have not lost since the break.  Since the trade deadline, they are #1 in defense and #1 in margin in general.  Is this a quirk of playing Charlotte in addition to their nationally televised beatdown of San Antonio – or are they actually “rounding into form”.  Seeing Andrew Bynum healthy and rebounding is a scary site to the rest of the West.  The question is if the Lakers have given away too many seeding positions.
  • The Knicks?  They have seen the fruits of adding Melo on the offensive end for sure, jumping from 9th to 6th in that area.  In particular, they have been 2nd in efficiency since the deadline.  The defense is still not a virtue, and the trade has not addressed that.  The Knicks will have to outscore teams – but it seems like they might have some ability to.
by

2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 18

It’s Tuesday, so it must mean new rankings are here – and this represents a break of sorts with the trade deadline occurring last Thursday.  As usual, the methodology is here.

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Heat 44 17 103.619 (4) 95.452 (4) 1.836 1.195 (29) 11.198
2 Spurs 49 10 103.89 (2) 96.184 (7) 1.72 1.703 (18) 11.129
3 Celtics 43 15 99.955 (13) 93.129 (2) 1.69 1.595 (23) 10.11
4 Lakers 42 19 103.701 (3) 97.135 (9) 1.836 1.403 (27) 9.804
5 Bulls 41 17 99.317 (16) 92.857 (1) 1.69 1.445 (26) 9.594
6 Magic 37 22 101.053 (10) 95.469 (5) 1.661 1.502 (25) 8.747
7 Mavericks 43 16 102.568 (7) 98.254 (13) 1.72 1.9 (12) 7.935
8 Hornets 35 26 98.711 (18) 95.736 (6) 1.779 1.947 (11) 6.701
9 Nuggets 35 26 104.295 (1) 101.81 (21) 1.664 1.981 (10) 6.131
10 Thunder 36 22 102.701 (5) 100.767 (16) 1.75 2.353 (2) 6.037
11 Sixers 30 29 99.496 (15) 97.106 (8) 1.839 1.28 (28) 5.509
12 Knicks 30 27 102.414 (9) 101.167 (19) 1.781 1.631 (22) 4.659
13 Grizzlies 33 28 98.472 (20) 97.662 (10) 1.893 1.646 (19) 4.35
14 Rockets 30 31 102.551 (8) 102.018 (23) 1.836 1.838 (13) 4.207
15 Suns 31 27 102.652 (6) 102.028 (24) 1.69 1.639 (21) 3.952
16 Blazers 33 26 99.629 (14) 99.293 (15) 1.78 1.716 (16) 3.832
17 Hawks 36 24 99.07 (17) 98.221 (12) 1.983 0.868 (30) 3.7
18 Jazz 32 29 100.36 (12) 100.961 (18) 1.721 1.744 (15) 2.864
19 Pacers 26 32 97.267 (22) 98.03 (11) 1.69 1.547 (24) 2.474
20 Bucks 22 36 93.83 (30) 95.273 (3) 1.81 1.995 (9) 2.363
21 Bobcats 26 33 96.627 (25) 98.485 (14) 1.72 1.645 (20) 1.507
22 Warriors 26 32 100.396 (11) 103.067 (28) 1.569 2.178 (6) 1.076
23 Clippers 21 40 97.247 (23) 101.845 (22) 1.721 2.196 (4) -0.68
24 Pistons 22 39 98.534 (19) 103.013 (27) 1.721 2.045 (8) -0.712
25 Kings 15 43 95.451 (26) 100.954 (17) 1.69 1.704 (17) -2.11
26 Timberwolves 14 46 96.697 (24) 102.305 (25) 1.692 1.744 (14) -2.172
27 Raptors 16 44 98.065 (21) 104.281 (29) 1.692 2.178 (5) -2.346
28 Nets 17 43 94.859 (27) 101.574 (20) 1.808 2.08 (7) -2.827
29 Wizards 15 44 94.599 (28) 102.513 (26) 1.72 2.507 (1) -3.687
30 Cavaliers 11 48 94.45 (29) 104.904 (30) 1.78 2.228 (3) -6.446

This week’s observations revolve around the context of some of the big deals and what to look at going forward. In particular:

  • The Celtics moving Perkins would seem to reduce their effectiveness defending the inside.  Meanwhile Green gives them some different skills, and Troy Murphy gives them some offensive firepower.  Will their 13th ranked offense compensate for the perceived defensive dropoff?
  • The Thunder by adding Perk and Mohammed, got bigger and tougher inside.  Also moving Serge Ibaka into the starting lineup should improve their defense.  Will their mediocre 16th ranked defense improve significantly?
  • The Hawks added Kirk Hinrich because they did not want a human traffic cone to be their point guard.  Will their 12th ranked defense improve enough to really make them more than just a no-man’s land team in the East?
  • The Knicks made the highest profile moves of anybody.  The Knicks have been 9th in offense, 19th in defense.  One suspects Melo will add little value to the latter – but can the team’s offense rise up to REALLY make them interesting?
by

Dare to be Stupid – The Melo Deal

After much anticipation, we have unofficial word of Carmelo Anthony being dealt to the New York Knicks.  Honestly, I was hoping the deal would be made at halftime of the NBA All Star Game so he could switch uniforms at halftime.  Alas, no such luck.  However, the three team deal that made this happen – assuming this is the trade – is very interesting.

The Timberwolves get Eddy Curry and Anthony Randolph from the Knicks.

The Knicks get Corey Brewer from the Timberwolves.  The Knicks get Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter and Renaldo Balkman from the Nuggets.

The Nuggets get Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov, Raymond Felton, a 2014 first round pick and 2012 and 2013 second rounders that belonged to the Warriors.

For the Timberwolves, this deal is pretty basic.  They get Eddy Curry’s salary cap space and Anthony Randolph’s otherworldly but as yet untapped talent in exchange for Corey Brewer – who is a nice player, but not somebody who will be a core player on the next good Timberwolves team.  Actually I like this for the Timberwolves, and if you look carefully David Kahn has done a good job accumulating talent – granted talent without any real fit, but talent.

For the Nuggets, they obviously are a loser.  When you give up the best player in the deal – it’s a loss.  However, if you accept that Carmelo was gone – then Denver did fairly well.  They got four starters from the Knicks, all up-tempo and can fit into the system Denver already runs.  Mozgov is a bit of a wildcard – he has been awful most of the year, but has delivered a couple of encouraging performances.  The starting caliber players do not make up for Anthony and Billups, but it gets them younger and cleans up their payroll.  The draft pick bounty is not as good as what New Jersey offered – that is the surprise about Denver taking this deal.  I guess your grade for Denver is directly related to how seriously you took Melo’s position.  Denver could have called his bluff and moved him to the Nets who seemed to be offering some sort of mini Herschel Walker package.  In making this move, they seemed spooked about Anthony’s willingness to facilitate a move to the better deal.  Whether that is true or not, we’ll never know.

The Knicks pretty clearly got the best players here.  That said, one questions the Knicks dealmaking – giving up so much in this sort of move when you had so much implied leverage, it was as if the Knicks were either A) being run by Isiah Thomas (maybe they ARE) or B) channeling Barack Obama in a room full of Republicans.  The Knicks got two elite starters in Anthony and Billups.  Going with Stoudemire, this is an exciting team.  However, especially with a new labor agreement coming, I do not know if there is cap room for the Knicks to add more.  If Anthony signs, this is their team for the foreseeable future – unless they think they can move Billups for a younger point guard.  This team looks like they will be better, and maybe even a dangerous floater in the East tournament.  However, did this deal make the Knicks a serious near term threat against Boston, Miami, Chicago or Orlando?  Is Carmelo Anthony that kind of player?  He is a good rebounder and great scorer – but is he a franchise changer?  I don’t know.  The Knicks won this deal by getting one of those sorts of players who are just serially hard to find.  However, I don’t know how far this will actually get them in the brutally difficult top heavy East.

by

2011 NBA Preview: Teams 18-13

Before we get to the meat, a side note:

  • I only managed to catch the final two fights on UFC 121.  I am normally not a huge MMA guy, but when the top needle mover in the sport is going, I am up for it.  Brock Lesnar since coming over from fake sports (I knew him from WWE) has been a force of nature unlike anything MMA has seen before.  However, Cain Velasquez was the first guy he faced who was legitimately faster than him.  Lesnar came out hot but Velasquez was ready for it and after the initial rush Velasquez beat the living crap out of Lesnar.  What a performance!  Lesnar needs to figure out how to defend himself when he gets sent down – this almost killed him against Carwin.  Also, sadly, Jake Shields sucked – gave me no reason to think that John Fitch does not deserve to UFC’s #1 contender for GSP – as horrible as that sounds.
  • Wow is Lesnar’s chin awful or what?

Now, back to basketball.

As we rise up the rankings, we have passed bad teams, interesting but unripe teams, uninteresting but skilled teams … now we start getting into fringy playoff sides.

18. Indiana Pacers (21st overall in 2010, 26th offense, 14th defense)

Really the Charlotte Bobcats forecast in our previous entry and the next two entries might qualify for the least interesting teams in the league for this season.  They aren’t bad in any sort of customary way, they might even make the playoffs to be a punching bag for a really good side – but I don’t see much sizzle here.  Danny Granger is a terrific player, but clearly more of a #2 than a #1.  Darren Collison is an excellent point guard prospect, and unlike TJ Ford seems to know that passing is a good idea.  Still, is he going to be on the Rose-Rondo-Deron-CP3 sort of future short list?  But then: Brandon Rush, Tyler Hansbrough, Dontae Jones, Roy Hibbert, Mike Dunleavy.  There are a lot of decent players here, but decent is it.  To his credit, Larry Bird recognized the stasis and went for some high ceiling low probability guys in Paul George and Lance Stephenson in the draft.  If some of that works, maybe this is a playoff team and attractive to a free agent with the cap room they have.  But I don’t know.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Paul George reaches his ceiling and Darren Collison is a lot better than I think (and I respect him a lot), while Granger remains a high efficiency scorer.  Really, they might have to join the NBDL too.  This is a potential playoff team, but I don’t see what that potential means.

17. New Orleans Hornets (19th overall in 2010, 16th offense, 22nd defense)

Much drama was had regarding Chris Paul’s flailing about and tacit demanding of a trade.  Really it was part of a very eventful offseason.  Jeff Bower, the GM and interim coach left, the Hornets got someone from the Spurs (always a decent idea) and hired Monte Williams as coach, a lauded assistant I know nothing about.  They traded for Trevor Ariza to give some athleticism and drafted Quincy Pondexter for even more.  The team has some talent, but really they are the West’s Washington Wizards, who placed a lot of high value bets on decent players who did not deserve such faith.  One man’s Caron Butler, put simply, is another’s Peja Stojakovic.  Fortunately for the Hornets, they have some cap room next year, but will they fulfill Chris Paul’s wishes to have a chance to win without him making a pinkie swear promise with somebody?

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: NBA teams are only allowed to play one point guard on the floor with no other players.

16. Phoenix Suns (3rd overall in 2010, 1st offense, 19th defense)

So THIS is the fallout from one of the most joyous seasons in Suns history.  Sure they lost a tough series to the Lakers, but the season was such found money that it is hard to argue the season was nothing but a screaming success.  So they celebrated by losing Amare Stoudemire to the Knicks, bungling the situation so they could not get a giant cap exception.  They then signed Hakim Warrick, traded for Josh Childress and traded for Hedo Turkoglu, one of the ghastliest contracts in the NBA.   Louis Amundsen, their energy big man off their remarkable bench left for Golden State.  The end result is Steve Nash is surrounded by a bevy of small forwards, and a couple of VERY soft big men.  Also gone is the shooting prowess of Leandro Barbosa.  Honestly, I am not sure besides Steve Nash, Jason Richardson and Channing Frye, where the firepower is coming from outside.  Can they play the breakneck pace they always do and shoot well?  Sure.  But their defense, not a strength a year ago (and it actually WAS a strength under D’Antoni) could be earth shatteringly bad.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They somehow match last year’s true shooting percentage and offensive efficiency while Robin Lopez turns into Marcus Camby.  They need to defend marginally well and rebound.  They could majorly overachieve again, but I don’t expect any team that scares away a guy like Steve Kerr to be achieving much of anything.

15. New York Knicks

In a fun coincidence, we follow Mike D’Antoni’s old team with his current one.  On the bad side, the Knicks plan to get LeBron James as a colossal failure.  They had no way of knowing about the pinky swear promise, and as such they built up their fans’ hopes for nothing.  Some have called the offseason an unmitigated disaster.  I am inclined to empathize, but given this – their offseason was actually pretty good.  They signed Amare Stoudemire.  Sure he has no partner in crime, but by not splurging otherwise, there is some possibility to get that guy.  They fleeced Golden State trading David Lee’s one dimensional ass for Anthony Randolph who has Shawn Marion sort of ability dripping off of him.  They signed Raymond Felton to one of the smartest deals of the offseason – while that might not be a perfect fit on the court, he was a great value.  There is not the three point gunning in this lineup to satisfy D’Antoni, but there are the athletes to run, run, run.  The Knicks have the talent to get back into the playoffs at least.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: If the 2005 Suns magic strikes again and these guys all DO become great 3 point gunners.  There are a lot of 129-122 results in this team’s future.  There is no real title hope here, but the entertainment value will be there.

14. Atlanta Hawks (8th overall in 2010, 4th offense, 15th defense)

What is interesting about the Hawks offense is that they basically succeeded by not passing.  Their noted isolation heavy attack relied on shooting a lot and rebounding misses.  They led the league in lowest turnover rate because guys just shot it when they had it.  Their 4th ranked offensive rebounding stat shows how they were efficient.  They did a great job at making sure stuff was heading to the basket, such a great job that they had some slack when the ball did not go in.  That said, this team had great health and a great season off the bench for Jamal Crawford, and Josh Smith is one of the covert best players in the NBA.  Really this is the most predictable outfit in the league.  They are good and durable and playoff caliber.  But they just aren’t good enough to beat top teams in the postseason.  This has shown the last two years with their drubbings in the second round – their isolation offense gets exposed and they have no plan B.  If individual talent fails, what to do?  Allegedly new coach Larry Drew is trying to add some motion, but it’s hard to see them changing much.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: The United States east of Atlanta crumbles and falls into the sea.

13. Denver Nuggets (10th overall in 2010, 6th offense, 16th defense)

Denver is in a weird place in their development.  10th a year ago, some of that can be attributed to George Karl’s bout with cancer.  Really, this side is not significantly different from the team that outplayed the Lakers for five games in 2009 – and is the best foul drawing team in recent history.  However, health, status all of that is in flux.  Does Carmelo Anthony want out?  He has been heard making noises about a pinkie swear promise with Chris Paul, or Meg Ryan or Amy Adams, I don’t know.  But there is some evidence of unrest.  Their desperately thin frontcourt is in even more peril as Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen have significant knee issues.  While Al Harrington (a good pickup) gives them some floor spacing, he hurts their already meh defense.  The team can shoot though, especially if JR Smith can stay more consistent than he has been, and Ty Lawson has all the makings of a star just waiting to escape the cage his coaches have put him in.  Denver could win the title – the talent is there, but this is very much like what a football preview writer might have said about the Minnesota Vikings.  This could REALLY go in any direction.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Carmelo Anthony stops making doe eyes at the East Coast and plays the basketball he is capable of, their thin big rotation stays healthy and Ty Lawson and JR Smith give them a true energizer dream backcourt to supplement what the old hand of Chauncey Billups can offer.  Denver could win 55 games, they could win 35 … I am totally flummoxed.

 

by

Dare to be Stupid – More NBA Free Agency

The reporting has been a little slow lately.  Maybe it’s the Independence Day holiday – maybe just the nature of the beast and everyone waiting for LeBron.  But a couple more moves:

Atlanta Hawks sign Joe Johnson for 6 years $120 million: I wrote about this already. This is a mind bendingly stupid deal by the Hawks.  It’s not like they sell out the building – the Hawks have always been a tough draw, and Atlanta is probably the worst pro sports market in the United States anyway.  The Hawks are a good team – good enough to make the 2nd round in each of the last two playoffs.  However, they lost 8 straight in that round by double figures.  As constituted, this team cannot make the leap.  But what have they done?  Replaced Mike Woodson with his assistant who might keep their system – which is good but also has bogged down in the playoffs.  Then they re-sign their money man without any sort of hometown discount.  Basically Johnson is back solely for the coin.  And one can easily argue Josh Smith is their best player – and will be in the future.  The Hawks have doomed themselves to a very limited ceiling for the foreseeable future.

New York Knicks sign Amare Stoudemire for 5 years, $100 million: On some basic level the Knicks overpaid for Amare here.  Amare is a poor defender, and showed some low effort in the Lakers series.  He could be taken out of games at times.  But he is a prodigious inside scorer, and is returning to the system where he became a household name.  In addition, the Knicks HAD to land a big fish.  Given how they have sold this strategy to their fans, and given how little hope Knicks fans have felt for years – they NEEDED to get a big catch this offseason.  Stoudemire certainly qualifies, and will probably justify his deal.  There is also some room for the Knicks to go get someone else.  This move does not make the Knicks a title contender – but now they have a chance to put that sort of team out there – whether it be with the rest of this offseason or next year.

Boston Celtics re-sign Paul Pierce for 4 years $60 million: The haggling on the fourth year was about how guaranteed it would be.  The details when they come out will be interesting.  That said, Pierce has gone through a lot.  He survived a stabbing, and never asked to leave Boston.  And while he is not the player he was, his virtues (size and shooting ability) are durable and his secondary skills offer value.  This is an old team – but torching it was not a viable cap option – not with Garnett being unmovable through 2012.  So the Celtics and Pierce got a mutually beneficial agreement, and the Celtics have a chance to do some rebuilding on the fly with Rasheed’s contract hopefully.

Dallas Mavericks re-sign Dirk Nowitzki for 4 years $80 million: Dirk is one of the ten best players in the league, and his biggest skills (shooting, rebounding, being tall) assure he will be a viable player for far beyond this deal.  Mavericks and he also good mutual agreement.  In addition, if Dallas wanted to take a long odds stab at LeBron – they have a lot of enticing pieces to offer.

by

NBA Trade Deadline – The Final Rush

Well, after much speculation about whether it would be quiet or not – we got a real hoppin trade deadline after all!  So, as a follow up to two other posts on the topic, the final deals:

  • Bucks get Royal Ivey, Primoz Brezec and a 2010 2nd Rounder, Sixers get Jodie Meeks and Francisco Elson

Elson is a classic buyout candidate.  Useful big, solid defender, few other recognizable basketball skills.  Jodie Meeks has not shot lights out yet at the pro level, but for anyone who saw him score 54 against Tennessee, we know the kid can stroke it.  Sixers have been a lousy shooting team for years – they could use all the help they get.  The Bucks get a solid backup PG whom they are familiar with and a second round pick – which should be in the mid 30s, this year.  In other words, a deal that made sense for everyone, even if it is low profile.

  • Grizzlies get Ronnie Brewer, Jazz get protected 1st Rounder in 2011.

Jazz do not NEED Ronnie Brewer.  That said Brewer is an excellent defender and good efficient player even if he is not a good shooter.  He was good enough to start for a title contender.  The Jazz probably did not hurt themselves that much, but making a money dump when they are a legit Top 4 team in the West is a letdown.  The Grizzlies get themselves a legit rotation player and capable 6th man for what could be an outside the lottery 2011 draft pick.  Hard to get revved up about the Jazz philosophy here.

  • Kings get Dominc McGuire, Wizards get $$ and a conditional 2nd Rounder

Not much to say here.  Wizards get below the luxury tax line – and thus could keep Ilgauskas the rest of the year, and the Kings get to see a good defensive specialist sort for the rest of the season, no strings attached.  Let’s move on.

  • Bobcats get Theo Ratliff, Spurs get conditional 2nd Rounder

Another straight dump.  Ratliff could make the Bobcats rotation, maybe.  Not sure why I even listed this.

  • Bobcats get Tyrus Thomas, Bulls get Flip Murray, Acie Law and future 1st Rounder

Bulls get something for the perpetually intriguing Tyrus Thomas.  Law could be a useful backup PG, though with Derrick Rose there, it is bit of a Maytag repairman job.  Flip Murray is one dimensional – but a dimension who can catch fire (a poor man’s Eddie House).  The 1st Rounder from what I read could take a while to materialize – no earlier than 2012.  For the Bobcats, Thomas’ talent is undeniable – though he has been a knucklehead and shown the talent only in flashes.  He can walk after the season – for a playoff push, it’s a good free look for Charlotte.

  • Rockets get Jordan Hill, Jared Jeffries, Kevin Martin, Hilton Armstrong, The Knicks 1st Rounder in 2012 (Top 5 protected) and the option to switch picks with the Knicks in 2011 as long as it’s not #1.  The Knicks get Tracy McGrady and Sergio Rodriguez.  The Kings get Carl Landry, Larry Hughes and Joey Dorsey.

A lot to unpack here.  First, the Rockets did exceptionally well.  Kevin Martin is the perimeter guy they needed, and add him to Yao next season, it’s a great place to start.  Jordan Hill did not play in NY, but that does not mean he can’t be a fit in Houston.  Hilton Armstrong sucks, but hey, a big body is a big body.  Depending on what the Knicks do in free agency, the draft picks could have significant value also.

The Knicks did very well, getting Sergio Rodriguez, who has shown tons of ability in Spain, but it has not translated in the NBA.  One’d think he’d be a good fit with Mike D’Antoni.  They also cleared the salary, so suddenly they are in a position to be huge players in free agency next season.  Can they get two max guys?  Probably not, but they will be a lot better quickly.  It came at a cost, but this trade makes sense.

The Kings also did very well.  Kevin Martin is a very good player but not in their long term plans.  So they turned him into cap space and a young starting caliber big in Carl Landry.  Good all around.

  • Celtics get Nate Robinson and Marcus Landry.  Knicks get Eddie House, JR Giddens and Bill Walker

Celtics got a guy who can be an explosive 6th man for a guy who has been an explosive 6th man and 2 guys who don’t play.  Robinson has more skills than House and House has been meh this season.  Knicks get to move more salary and get a guy D’Antoni is fond of.  Overall a small sensible deal for the Celtics, who need to change their team energy.

by

NBA Trade Deadline: The Next Batch

More trades trickle in …

  • Knicks get Brian Cardinal, Timberwolves get Darko Milicic

The beer league softball MVP look-alike was immediately cut by the Knicks, so you know what sort of esteem they held his basketball skills in.  That said, it does save them some money – and it wasn’t like Darko was playing.  The Timberwolves of course, well … I don’t know what they are doing.  If Darko has an NBA future – ok ok, I can’t rationalize.

  • Bucks get John Salmons and the right to swap picks outside of the Top 10 in this year’s draft, Bulls get Hakim Warrick, Joe Alexander

The Bulls did really well.  Initially this deal was Kurt Thomas and Francisco Elson – which was just cap relief.  But these guys might actually help – especially Hakim Warrick – bonus!  With the expiring contracts the Bulls hoard more cap space to possibly go after Dwayne Wade.  In the short run, losing Salmons, a key rotation player, adversely affects their playoff chances.  But it is a hard move to fault.

For the Bucks, the deal makes some sense.  Salmons impacts them positively.  He is a capable starting wing – and with Jennings and Bogut, the team’s defense will be solid.  Bucks have looked like a potential playoff team so far, at least in the East.  Their fans could benefit by some progress – and this is a good step forward without screwing their long term contract situation up.

  • Cavaliers get Antawn Jamison and Sebastian Telfair, Wizards get Al Thornton, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Emir Preldzic and Cleveland’s 2010 first rounder, Clippers get Drew Gooden

Lot of cap stories here.  Ilgauskas and Gooden will be bought out.  The Cavaliers obviously wanted Jamison.  He offers rebounding and perimeter shooting they do not have in a big man.  He is a good fit with the bigs they have, and with his ability to score without overhandling, he is a great fit with a creative force like LeBron.  They have a lot of money to pay in this deal, as Telfair will probably cash in his player option next season.  He is of no use to them, but will be an expense.  Ilgauskas is a prime candidate to re-sign with the Cavs, but who knows there?  But this improves them no doubt.  The Wizards get more cap relief with Ilgauskas’ expiring deal.  Al Thornton represents some actual young talent.  From what I can tell, the upside is low, but he is a capable rotation player.  The draft pick probably won’t be high impact – but it’s something, and of much more use to a talent starved Wiz team than it was to Cleveland.