Tag Archives: Lakers

08.12.12
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Dare to be Stupid: The Dwight Howard Trade

Let’s start with one thing.  I don’t know what offers the Orlando Magic actually had here.  Were they really poring through various offers of other teams’ trash?  Was this really some Building 19 special we were dealing with?  It all seems terribly weird for the league’s 2nd best player.  Yeah yeah yeah, it is chic to say that Kevin Durant is the league’s best non-LeBron James player, but Dwight Howard’s total impact on both sides of the floor (as well as the general VORP factors associated with centers) is too hard to ignore.  So, lapsing into Hubie Brown’s cadence, you have the 2nd best player in the league – one who could be a free agent after this season, what is he worth?

We know that Houston amassed trade assets by the boatload leading up to this – between some credible draft picks, cap space and players who know how to play basketball and have some upside – yeah not star upside, but rotation level upside.  We know that Atlanta could have offered Al Horford and Jeff Teague – granted their motivation to do so might have been modest considering that they could have tried to sign Howard outright after the season.  It is hard to think that Aaron Affalo, Al Harrington, Nikova Vucevic, Moe Harkless, a bunch of low value draft picks is a fair price for the 2nd best player in the league.  I mean, that is a combined 0 players who are likely to be key players on the next good Orlando team.  Apparently Orlando has a beat on Jabari Parker in 2014 or something – otherwise this is pretty horrible return for a truly great (albeit truly flaky) player.

For the Lakers, this is obviously heist.  After trading a bunch of picks they don’t want for Steve Nash, getting Dwight Howard for Andrew Bynum and a sack of potatoes is pretty amazing.  With Antawn Jamison augmenting their depth, the Lakers are still way thinner than what you’d prefer and relying on some old guys with big egos (Kobe cough cough), and the pieces do not fit precisely.  But they have four of the 25 best players in the game!  Is Dwight Howard healthy and capable of being the next great Lakers center and phase into the leader of the franchise?  Well he won’t have to lead right away.  Lakers have moved up to a solid 3rd in the pecking order behind Miami and OKC.

Denver’s role here is weird.  On one hand you can blame them for midwifing a trade that reduces their chance of winning.  That said, you’d make the Affalo-Harrington for Iguodala deal tomorrow.  And he is perfect for George Karl’s system – athletic, elite defender.  Given Denver’s model, this was a really shrewd trade.  And really, Lakers or Thunder or Spurs – they probably were not going to usurp any of them anyhoo.  They get a solid A- here.

The Sixers you have to wonder – would they have amnestied Elton Brand if they knew that they could have gotten Andrew Bynum.  Doubtlessly that would have been better than Bynum and Spencer Hawes or whatever.  But that said, Andrew Bynum – health risk and all – is the best player legitimately available to acquire outside of Dwight and they landed him.  Bynum is from Jersey and the Sixers will have an edge in money they can offer.  Bynum is no lock to sign, but the Sixers have as good a chance as anybody – maybe better than that. Studs don’t show up every day – so when you can get one – ask questions later.

Overall Grades: Magic D, Lakers A+, Nuggets A-, Sixers A-

 

04.28.12
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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #10 – Final Report and Playoff Preview

First as you have probably seen from the last couple of entries, people still have Cystic Fibrosis – blah blah blah – click here to help …

FINALLY.  The best of the playoff seasons is upon us.  Of course this was after a truly execrable last couple of weeks of the season where teams were playing scrubs shamelessly while still charging full prices.  The Tuesday Celtics-Heat game was a particular atrocity.  So the rankings could be skewed a tiny bit.  But whatever, the playoffs are here and looks at the series are coming up … how have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (2) Bulls (50-16)
  2. (4) Spurs (50-16)
  3. (1) Thunder (47-19)
  4. (3) Heat (46-20)
  5. (5) Sixers (35-31)
  6. (10) Nugggets (38-28)
  7. (6) Celtics (39-27)
  8. (8) Hawks (40-26)
  9. (7) Grizzlies (41-25)
  10. (15) Clippers (40-26)
  11. (13) Mavericks (36-30)
  12. (9) Lakers (41-25)
  13. (14) Knicks (36-30)
  14. (16) Pacers (42-24)
  15. (11) Magic (37-29)
  16. (12) Rockets (34-32)
  17. (18) Suns (33-33)
  18. (20) Jazz (36-30)
  19. (19) Bucks (31-35)
  20. (17) Blazers (28-38)
  21. (21) Timberwolves (26-40)
  22. (22) Warriors (23-43)
  23. (24) Hornets (21-45)
  24. (23) Raptors (23-43)
  25. (25) Kings (22-44)
  26. (29) Wizards (20-46)
  27. (27) Pistons (25-42)
  28. (28) Nets (22-44)
  29. (26) Wizards (21-45)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-59)

It’s the playoffs!  So – quick looks at your first round series are in order:

  • (E1) Bulls v (E8) Sixers – This is #1 vs #5.  What a matchup!  However, the Sixers have really stumbled down the stretch, but the metrics have been strong as the Sixers blowouts early still have resonance.  The Bulls with Derrick Rose’s dicey injury situation could be great – but they could be tricky.  Defense will be the order of the day (#2 v #3) and neither team is great from outside.  I can’t imagine the Bulls losing this but the Sixers match up well with them, better than they do with the Heat.  Bulls in 7
  • (E4) Celtics v (E5) Hawks – #7 vs #8.  Interestingly here the lower seed has home court.  The Celtics have been very strong down the stretch.  But so have the Hawks, both in the Top 6 since the trade deadline.  The Celtics have serious issues with rebounding and size, but the Hawks are 26th in offensive rebounding, so it is hard to read that as a huge edge.  The games have all been close in their head to head.  Really more of a coin flip than the experts purport.  Hawks in 7
  • (E2) Heat v (E7) Knicks – #4 vs #13 Fun series with two defensively adept teams.  Anthony and LeBron will be a great matchup and the Novak/Smith bench for the Knicks could explode.  But it is hard to envision the Knicks winning in Miami.  This is a fun series but Heat in 6
  • (E3) Pacers v (E6) Magic – The Pacers have the 5th best record in the league but merely #14 in rankings.  This describes the Pacers in general – a nice team, lot of good players, but is this the juice to win a playoff series?  The Magic will be motivated with no Dwight Howard and “nobody believing in them”. Did the Pacers more competitive than it seemed result vs Chicago last year inform them or will the Magic’s winning experience do it?  Without Glen Davis, the Magic just don’t have enough players now – good or otherwise.  Pacers in 5
  • (W1) Spurs v (W8) Jazz – Spurs can flat out score, but the Jazz can attack with size.  Will the Spurs lose in round 1 again?  Frankly I’d have more faith in the Jazz if their defense was not so mediocre.  Against the buzz saw offense of San Antonio it is tough sledding.  Spurs in 5
  • (W4) Grizzlies v (W5) Clippers – Grizzlies are a sexy pick to upset the apple cart.  However this is not last year’s Zach Randolph.  Meanwhile the Clippers just have more better players and one of the game’s best all around players and leaders.  Look how the Hornets stole 2 games against the Lakers with Chris Paul and nobody – he is just that good.  In the playoffs, the stars play more.  Lob City is not done yet.  Clippers in 6
  • (W2) Thunder v (W7) Mavericks – Hard series to peg.  On paper, Thunder should rip through this.  In actuality, Dallas can throw a lot of junk D at them and make the Thunder really work for it.  But it won’t be enough.  Thunder in 7
  • (W3) Lakers v (W6) Nuggets – Denver has depth.  The Lakers don’t.  Denver has speed, and the Lakers have real issues with that.  But the Lakers have all the really good players here and their size and ability to dictate in the half court.  I hope Denver can make this fun.  I think the Lakers grind it out enough.  Lakers in 6
03.27.12
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The Announcement

I wonder how many people who watch him on TV even remember.  We see him yukking it up with Jon Barry on Awkward Laughing Weekly NBA Countdown on ESPN, reminiscing about days gone by with rival and close friend Larry Bird, but a mere 20 years ago, I thought he’d have been gone by now.  Look at me, saying a “mere” 20 years.  20 years is obviously barely a fart in cosmic terms, but it’s long enough for a child to have been born, develop an adolescent fixation on cigarettes, and be legally able to feed the addiction without having to resort to a fake ID.  But how it all rushes back when I saw Nelson George’s understated The Announcement, which chronicles the day that Magic Johnson revealed to the rest of us that he was HIV positive.  The movie lives up to the quality that ESPN Films has shown in its 30 for 30 series, but George aims a little deeper than most, and we don’t just get a retrospective on the announcement, but an interesting reflection on Magic Johnson’s poignant triumph, which in some ways might not have been a triumph for the battle against the disease.

I remember the day Magic said he had HIV vividly.  Really, it was hard to separate it from “Magic has AIDS”.  Yeah, I was a Celtics fan, but who could really hate Magic?  The smile, the gregariousness.  Even if it was a media image, he seemed like the friendliest guy on earth.  And for a night, we were pretty sure he only had very limited time here.  The footage of Tom Brokaw, Dan Rather reporting it – the local media guy sitting waiting for Magic’s presser with his eyes watering, Larry Bird talking about not wanting to play that night – the gravity of the announcement came rushing back.  The entire thing now still is pretty amazing in retrospect.

However, what we knew less was what it did to Magic himself.  Well obviously he had HIV and that had to be spooky.  However, what about Magic having his Magicness pulled out from underneath him?  Magic himself in the film never really expresses it so starkly – George leaves those lines for us to fill – but as he recounts his actions and we see him speak, it all sort of came together.  Of course, Magic said he would be a spokesman, and then joined George Bush Sr’s panel.  What else could he do?  He was the world’s most famous HIV patient.  But that was not Magic’s gig – and so he drifted.  Being an activist/political flunky was not going to fill the hole.  When he went back and played the All Star Game though, THAT started to get there.  Of course from there, there was the talk show, and the failed comeback, and then the successful one – and only now has Magic seemed to settle into the life and profile that made the most sense for him.  He has raised money, but has been a hero to the cause of fighting HIV by simply rediscovering himself, and being Magic the entire time.

However, and this is the most interesting point in the film – was simply being famous enough for him to have done the HIV cause proud?  Chris Rock once posited that Bill Cosby did more for black comics by just being Bill Cosby than a more active dude like Dick Gregory.  Did that apply with Magic?  His journey and the advances in medicine have left him nearly HIV-free.  Does that mean, as Andrew Sullivan naively noted, that we are really safe from AIDS now?  Sure, HIV at this point is like many forms of cancer now – get it early, attack is sufficiently, you should be able to live a pretty normal life, but that ain’t “cured”.  Magic seems to get it – and laments that in his own journey he might have contributed to the false sense of security that folks like Andrew Sullivan can make such a weirdo claim.  It does not take much to veer into wacky African politician territory from there.  I was expecting a good story about a seminal event of my lifetime, but George has gone one better and provided a meditation on triumphing over HIV, both in a macro and micro way.

03.21.12
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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #8

Can you believe it?  We are already down to the last third of the season.  The Bulls even have less than 20 games to go.  It feels so abrupt that playoffs and playoff form need to be discussed.  Of course we have the trade deadline, and some early after effects.  We covered the deals of course here.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (1) Heat (34-11)
  2. (2) Bulls (38-10)
  3. (3) Thunder (34-12)
  4. (4) Sixers (26-20)
  5. (5) Spurs (29-14)
  6. (10) Hawks (26-20)
  7. (6) Lakers (28-18)
  8. (11) Magic (29-18)
  9. (8) Nuggets (25-21)
  10. (7) Mavericks (27-20)
  11. (14) Pacers (26-18)
  12. (12) Grizzlies (25-19)
  13. (13) Clippers (27-19)
  14. (15) Rockets (25-22)
  15. (20) Knicks (22-24)
  16. (16) Celtics (24-21)
  17. (9) Blazers (21-25)
  18. (17) Timberwolves (22-24)
  19. (22) Bucks (21-24)
  20. (19) Warriors (18-25)
  21. (18) Jazz (24-22)
  22. (21) Suns (23-23)
  23. (23) Hornets (11-34)
  24. (25) Cavaliers (17-26)
  25. (24) Raptors (15-31)
  26. (26) Kings (17-29)
  27. (28) Pistons (16-29)
  28. (27) Nets (15-32)
  29. (29) Wizards (10-34)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-37)

Some notes:

  • Wowee.  Some plunge the Blazers have taken.  It’s not the losses, but the sheer lack of competitiveness.  I personally was surprised they didn’t stop after firing Nate McMillan (who is a terrific coach, but clearly had wore out his welcome).  But since the deadline the Blazers have been the worst team in the league.  They obviously shook up a lot and pulled a heist trading Gerald Wallace to the Nets.  That said, still – a lot of guys have mailed this season in.
  • Granted the post deadline stats reveal little considering the sample sizes, but the Bucks have clearly benefited from their move.  In particular they have been the top offense since the deadline with a staggering 117 points per game (pace adjusted), 8 points better than the Knicks (who have been inspired since their coaching change).  But the Bucks are also defending much better, which feels less sustainable given the personnel changes.  But the Bucks needed offense, and they needed guys who weren’t injured.  The trade has accomplished both from early evidence.
  • The Bobcats are still awful, and I know nothing about the West aside from the Thunder and Spurs being atop it.  The Lakers are 3rd yes, but still a mere 4 games ahead of 9th place.  It is very unlikely they miss the playoffs, but not impossible.

 

03.08.11
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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 19

Our first rankings update after absorbing some real trade deadline results.  Obviously, the “SMALL SAMPLE SIZE” alert flashes in neon, but it is interesting to see if teams have gotten out of things what they wanted.  First, the total body of work – the methodology is here:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Spurs 51 12 103.965 (2) 96.639 (7) 1.722 1.865 (10) 10.913
2 Lakers 45 19 103.536 (3) 96.647 (8) 1.859 1.446 (28) 10.195
3 Heat 43 20 103.155 (4) 96.263 (6) 1.833 1.45 (27) 10.175
4 Celtics 46 15 100.253 (13) 93.382 (2) 1.664 1.49 (26) 10.025
5 Bulls 44 18 98.899 (17) 92.653 (1) 1.75 1.737 (20) 9.733
6 Magic 40 24 101.229 (10) 95.455 (4) 1.586 1.773 (16) 9.133
7 Mavericks 46 17 102.903 (7) 98.482 (13) 1.722 1.84 (11) 7.983
8 Nuggets 37 27 104.282 (1) 101.333 (20) 1.695 1.896 (9) 6.541
9 Thunder 39 23 103.125 (5) 100.734 (16) 1.75 2.333 (2) 6.475
10 Hornets 37 29 98.479 (20) 95.843 (5) 1.909 1.835 (12) 6.38
11 Sixers 32 30 99.674 (15) 97.211 (9) 1.75 1.192 (29) 5.404
12 Knicks 33 29 103.005 (6) 101.314 (19) 1.75 1.545 (25) 4.987
13 Rockets 33 32 102.857 (8) 101.614 (22) 1.885 1.757 (17) 4.884
14 Grizzlies 36 29 99.031 (16) 97.996 (10) 1.831 1.995 (6) 4.861
15 Blazers 36 27 99.716 (14) 99.205 (15) 1.778 1.745 (19) 4.035
16 Suns 32 29 102.585 (9) 102.121 (24) 1.779 1.785 (15) 4.027
17 Hawks 37 26 98.749 (18) 98.46 (11) 1.889 1.03 (30) 3.207
18 Jazz 33 31 100.368 (11) 101.23 (18) 1.695 1.736 (21) 2.568
19 Bucks 23 38 93.737 (30) 95.306 (3) 1.721 1.955 (7) 2.108
20 Pacers 27 35 96.974 (23) 98.468 (12) 1.75 1.553 (24) 1.809
21 Warriors 27 35 100.366 (12) 102.91 (27) 1.694 2.13 (5) 1.279
22 Bobcats 26 37 95.799 (25) 98.713 (14) 1.778 1.68 (23) 0.543
23 Clippers 24 40 97.3 (22) 101.538 (21) 1.695 2.197 (3) -0.346
24 Pistons 23 41 98.701 (19) 103.049 (28) 1.695 1.729 (22) -0.924
25 Timberwolves 15 50 96.762 (24) 102.301 (25) 1.723 1.809 (13) -2.007
26 Kings 15 46 95.542 (26) 101.227 (17) 1.664 1.747 (18) -2.274
27 Raptors 17 46 98.426 (21) 104.423 (29) 1.722 1.914 (8) -2.36
28 Nets 19 43 95.522 (27) 101.716 (23) 1.75 1.799 (14) -2.645
29 Wizards 16 46 94.707 (29) 102.436 (26) 1.694 2.166 (4) -3.869
30 Cavaliers 12 50 94.757 (28) 105.123 (30) 1.75 2.362 (1) -6.254

Sure, life is good now that the Heat are losing, right? Certainly their miserable week has been expounded on plenty.  But what else has been trending?

  • Curiously, the Nuggets since dealing Carmelo, are your #2 ranked team in the past week.  Most notable has been their defense.  Entering the deadline, they were allowing 101.8 points per pace adjusted game, 21st in the league.  In the small time since the new guys have come in – Denver has dropped to 90.5 points allowed.  Whether this is sustainable or not is anyone’s guess – but with Billups and Melo gone, the team is more athletic – and perhaps the sort of team Karl has been more successful with anyway.
  • The Bobcats, after dealing Nazr Mohammed and Gerald Wallace, basically are without players I have heard of (ok, that’s a lie – but only because I have no life).  One presumes they want to rebuild – and with their dead last performance since the deal, they might have gotten the non-playoffs they are looking for.
  • A team that notably didn’t deal, the Lakers, have not lost since the break.  Since the trade deadline, they are #1 in defense and #1 in margin in general.  Is this a quirk of playing Charlotte in addition to their nationally televised beatdown of San Antonio – or are they actually “rounding into form”.  Seeing Andrew Bynum healthy and rebounding is a scary site to the rest of the West.  The question is if the Lakers have given away too many seeding positions.
  • The Knicks?  They have seen the fruits of adding Melo on the offensive end for sure, jumping from 9th to 6th in that area.  In particular, they have been 2nd in efficiency since the deadline.  The defense is still not a virtue, and the trade has not addressed that.  The Knicks will have to outscore teams – but it seems like they might have some ability to.
11.24.10
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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 4

(this covers the events through November 22, 2010)

As the worm turns – here we are again for another batch of power rankings.  What is interesting about how the season has evolved is that early on, it sure felt like a Heat-Lakers oligarchy.  However, the Hornets hot start changed things.  This week the third #1 in four weeks (see here for the methodology):

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Celtics 10 4 103.354 (5) 93.944 (3) 2 2.804 (7) 14.214
2 Heat 8 6 103.69 (4) 95.377 (5) 1.25 3.38 (3) 12.943
3 Spurs 12 1 105.357 (2) 95.998 (6) 1.346 1.551 (20) 12.256
4 Lakers 12 2 108.875 (1) 98.868 (12) 1.5 -0.764 (29) 10.743
5 Hornets 11 2 100.761 (12) 94.026 (4) 1.615 1.812 (17) 10.162
6 Magic 9 4 100.716 (14) 93.552 (2) 1.346 1.558 (19) 10.069
7 Mavericks 8 4 101.559 (10) 96.959 (8) 1.458 3.208 (4) 9.266
8 Bulls 7 4 100.624 (15) 97.05 (9) 1.591 3.032 (6) 8.196
9 Nuggets 7 6 101.936 (9) 100.709 (15) 1.885 3.175 (5) 6.286
10 Bucks 5 8 93.121 (30) 92.447 (1) 1.615 3.987 (2) 6.276
11 Pacers 6 6 98.666 (20) 96.513 (7) 1.458 2.266 (12) 5.877
12 Blazers 8 6 101.296 (11) 99.846 (14) 2 1.688 (18) 5.139
13 Jazz 10 5 99.928 (17) 98.55 (11) 1.867 1.854 (16) 5.099
14 Bobcats 5 8 100.133 (16) 99.086 (13) 1.885 1.861 (15) 4.793
15 Thunder 10 4 102.621 (7) 102.203 (20) 1.5 2.403 (10) 4.32
16 Suns 7 7 104.303 (3) 106.631 (30) 2.25 4.153 (1) 4.076
17 Hawks 8 6 102.752 (6) 101.12 (16) 1.5 0.386 (27) 3.518
18 Sixers 3 10 96.433 (26) 97.677 (10) 1.885 1.938 (14) 2.578
19 Raptors 5 9 99.036 (19) 102.176 (19) 2 2.322 (11) 1.182
20 Rockets 3 10 100.742 (13) 103.996 (28) 2.154 2.123 (13) 1.023
21 Knicks 6 8 102.232 (8) 103.193 (24) 2.25 -0.543 (28) 0.746
22 Grizzlies 5 9 96.649 (25) 101.195 (17) 1.75 2.705 (8) -0.091
23 Warriors 8 7 99.281 (18) 101.796 (18) 1.867 0.504 (26) -0.144
24 Pistons 5 8 98.406 (21) 102.527 (21) 1.885 0.914 (24) -1.322
25 Nets 4 9 98.306 (22) 102.939 (23) 1.885 0.769 (25) -1.979
26 Cavaliers 5 7 96.898 (24) 102.566 (22) 1.75 1.246 (23) -2.672
27 Wizards 4 8 95.655 (28) 103.551 (26) 1.75 1.247 (22) -4.899
28 Timberwolves 4 11 94.591 (29) 103.665 (27) 2.1 1.327 (21) -5.648
29 Kings 4 9 97.193 (23) 103.401 (25) 1.346 -1.232 (30) -6.094
30 Clippers 2 13 95.858 (27) 106.451 (29) 1.633 2.634 (9) -6.326

What to make of things?

  • The Lakers being 4th is a matter probably of undervaluing them.  Per usual, their schedule is frontloaded with patsies and home games, as their strength of schedule seems to indicate.  As such, their tough games are ahead of them.  The eye test puts them higher than 4th, especially when Bynum returns – but right now the chances to score brownie points have not been there.
  • The Celtics came off of a couple of curious losses to the Thunder and the Raptors (though the Raptors to date have actually been fairly not-horrible), but then came the absolute destruction of the Hawks, whose offense is starting to fade a bit.  The Celtics defense remains as stout as ever, 3rd in the league.  What has improved in the early going this season is the offense, off to a sharp 5th after last year’s more pedestrian numbers.  The real key to this is the turnover rate – which has dropped from their usual “among the worst in the league” to a fairly manageable 13th this season.  In spite of them continuing to be one of the worst teams in the league at creating looks at the bucket (offensive rebounding still not good), the reduction in turnovers has given their top ranked true shooting team a chance to actually convert opportunities into points.
  • One of the interesting early season pleasant surprises have been the Indiana Pacers.  Considering their lack of true top shelf talent, that they are 11th, even early in the season, ahead of teams like the Jazz or Thunder, is a pleasant harbinger for the future.  True, their record is only 6-6, but their defense, ranked 7th in the league, has given their team a chance to compete.  This of course was shown most latently in their shocking win in Miami Monday.  How have they done it, despite a pedestrian offense.  Jim O’Brien has his flaws, but he has always been able to coach defense.  To his credit, the team has shown spunk on that end, despite what looks to be a lack of athleticism for the most part.  They have a competitive 9th ranked TS% defense – which is surprising considering they hack quite a bit (26th in the league at fouling) and are a mediocre three point defense.  What has happened is that they – even after trading Troy Murphy – have become a superior shot prevention squad.  They force turnovers at a solid league average level – and have the 4th best defensive rebound rate.  Add those together and they are a strong 8th place in preventing looks per possession – augmenting their strong shooting defense.  If the defense keeps up, one would think some of their offensive flaws most notably their turnovers and their absolute inability to get to the line, could lead to some pleasant surprises in the win column as well.
10.26.10
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2011 NBA Preview – The Dirty Dozen

Six hours and 10 minutes to go before the store opens for the 2011 season.  12 teams left to countdown.  At this point, we are left with all teams that have a more than theoretical chance to win it all, although certainly a lot has to go right for some of the entries.  The flotsam, is passed:

12. Houston Rockets (16th overall in 2010, 19th offense, 17th defense)

Yao is back, albeit in a highly controlled role.  Kevin Martin, almost as brittle, gives them the best shooting guard they’ve had since Tracy McGrady was still alive.  Last year Rick Adelman used smoke and mirrors to keep them in the playoffs.  Luis Scola is a very good complimentary player – they have a very deep lineup.  Really, this is a team that could make a huge run, if Yao can hold up and if he can become a serious contributor late in the season.  Big ifs, so I will leave them here out of respect for Adelman and the talent Darryl Morey has assembled.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Yao and Kevin Martin give them the dynamic duo – and a healthy dynamic duo at that.

11. Milwaukee Bucks (15th overall in 2010, 23rd offense, 3rd defense)

They won last year with Brandon Jennings youth, Andrew Bogut making a mini-Leap, and the 3rd best defense in the league.  In particular, they forced turnovers at a high rate while being the best team in the league at not committing fouls.  This elevated them from their good but not awesome first shot defense into elite territory.  But their 23rd ranked offense needs to improve.  Enter Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette, offensively gifted forwards.  Chris Douglas-Roberts gives some wing options to that end.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Brandon Jennings is as good as his first season hinted, Andrew Bogut is healthy, their defense stays strong while Maggette, one of the game’s most efficient scorers, can bring their offense up.

10. Chicago Bulls (18th overall in 2010, 28th offense, 11th defense)

He will not be healthy to start the season, but Carlos Boozer portends to give the Bulls the low post scorer they have yearned for.  With him and Joakim Noah, they now have a frontcourt to compete with the East’s best.  Derrick Rose is growing, and his work for Team USA portended well.  This was a bad offensive team, particularly deficient at just shooting the ball.  Carlos Boozer will help this along – even if the Bulls were aiming for a bigger prize.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Their defense is as solid as it was by the end of last year, Derrick Rose makes the leap and Carlos Boozer provides that post presence they need to win playoff games.

9. Dallas Mavericks (12th overall in 2010, 10th offense, 12th defense)

It feels like we could write the same blurb about this team for the last 5 years.  Dirk is a GREAT player, and his cast is solid but old.  They are coached well largely, though it has not always manifested in the playoffs.  It feels like this lineup has a finite amount of time together.  All of these sentences applied in 2007, 2008 and apply today.  Rodrique Beaubois could be a terrific spark as a combo guard, and Tyson Chandler is a terrific pickup as a defensive big and usable contract.  But really where is the upside here?

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Dirk is 2006-2007 Dirk, Caron Butler is 2008 Caron Butler and Jason Kidd in 2003 Jason Kidd.  Honestly this seems like a stuck outfit.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder (6th overall in 2010, 11th offense, 7th defense)

What???  America’s sweethearts are all the way down here?  Let’s be real.  They were abnormally healthy a year ago.  They play in a brutal division.  The question is whether they make the elite leap now or next year.  Honestly, this is guessing.  Durant is going to be an MVP favorite as he should be, and Russell Westbrook is fringe all-NBA.  That is real.  They will be better than they were last year, but it might not reflect in the standings.  This is a fascinating division.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Durant and the kiddies are all growns up!

7.  Portland TrailBlazers (11th overall in 2010, 7th offense, 13th defense)

This is a very interesting team.  The Thunder burst into our consciousness last season.  The Blazers, with a similar assemblage of talent and growth curve, suffered a comically rash level of injury yet won 50 games.  They have the sheer amount of size to give the Lakers trouble – the length the Jazz lacked.  However, is the health just a glitch or a real problem?  They spent too much money on Wesley Matthews, although he is a fit for what they want to do.  This might be the season for them to make The Leap.  Andre Miller is a good trade asset, as he and Roy are a poor basketball fit.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Greg Oden gets healthy and develops.  Brandon Roy stays healthy.  The young talent just grows up.

6. Utah Jazz (5th overall in 2010, 8th offense, 10th defense)

The Jazz cannot beat the Lakers.  They were not long enough last year.  They aren’t long enough now.  They lost Boozer, but fleeced Minnesota for Al Jefferson who is a more than capable replacement.  They lost Wesley Matthews and Kyle Korver, but Gordon Hayward might be better than either by the end of the season.  Deron Williams is a great PG and Jerry Sloan is a great coach.  This team cannot beat the Lakers but they can beat anybody else.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: The Lakers suffer a fatal incommunicable illness.

5. San Antonio Spurs (4th overall in 2010, 9th offense, 9th defense)

The Spurs are on the downside.  But Manu Ginobli had a career year of sorts, and Tony Parker is playing for a contract.  Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair give them a real chance to keep Duncan’s minutes even more controlled.  The pieces are there for another big run – though it will take some help.  After all, they finished 4th last year!  The problem though is that their defense has slipped from the elite levels of their title years, and their offense is a little less efficient than it used to be.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Duncan, Ginobli and Parker go in the wayback machine a little bit … and their defense gets back towards the 2007 standard.

4. Miami Heat (13th overall in 2010, 18th offense, 4th defense)

Obviously they will be better – I don’t think we need to go over why.  In fact on the wing they will be magical, and Chris Bosh is an elite big, although not a great strength big.  They have a lot of bigs – but very little quality outside of Bosh, though Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony are good team sorts.  They will have trouble defending elite size, and teams that have that can beat them in a short series.  They might win the regular season derby – but teams that can pound them inside could very well beat them.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They can defend real size.

3. Orlando Magic (1st overall in 2010, 2nd offense, 1st defense)

HERE is real size.  The Magic are a great defensive team.  Their depth is spectacular with a second five (Duhon, Anderson, Bass, Gortat, Williams) that could win 20 game in the NBA.  Their size on the wings can at least present some resistance against the Heat’s wing elegance.  If a team cannot handle Dwight Howard with single coverage, that opens up their 3 point attack and they become very very hard to stop.  But if Howard is defended 1 on 1, look out.  They will be active looking for an impact guy via trade.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Dwight Howard becomes seriously unguardable.

2. Boston Celtics (9th overall in 2010, 12th offense, 6th defense)

The Celtics can guard Howard 1 on 1.  That has driven the Magic crazy matchup-wise.  The Celtics rank was low in 2010, but they took care to avoid injury and sacrified playoff positions.  But their defense is elite, and with Garnett being healthier, and all the size they signed in the offseason the Celtics have the chance to be much more rugged than they were last year.  Rondo made The Leap last year, this team just has to manage minutes and be strong.  They might not beat the Heat or Magic, but there is no reason to start with that assumption.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They win one more game.

Los Angeles Lakers (7th overall in 2010, 13th offense, 5th defense)

The Lakers won the title last year, with so much wrong.  Andrew Bynum was hurt so much (as usual), Derek Fisher was HORRIBLE at the point and Kobe Bryant was ailing.  Like the Celtics, the Lakers bet on health over wins in the second half of the year and it worked.  The West has a lot of good teams, but none remotely as good.  This breaks my heart to type, I cannot emphasize enough.  No team can match up with so many styles, and the length they have up front makes them an elite team.  They are a rugged strength team and it is hard to envision a team overpowering them.  Witness the Celtics’ moves in the offseason – it was clearly with this in mind.



 

06.18.10
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2010 NBA Finals Game 7: Lakers 83, Celtics 79

First and foremost, it was a great season for the Celtics.  Given their miserable 50-32 (27-27 in last 54) regular season, this amazing run came from out of nowhere.  The Celtics came within a few minutes of knocking off the three best teams in the league in consecutive series.  Without Kendrick Perkins, the Lakers ate the Celtics alive in this one, with a 23-8 offensive rebounding edge.   This allowed them to of course overcome a 13 point deficit – the Celtics offense atrophied down the stretch for reasons I am still not fully able to reconcile.  Anyway … some ruminations:

The Eerie Parralel, Part One – This game played almost identically to the 1998 Eastern Conference Final Game 7 between the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers.  The Pacers, if you remember, outshot the Bulls, hung with them for a long time.  Both teams looked exhausted and in a true ordeal of a gae, the Bulls overcame some horrendous shooting by their star (Jordan 9 for 25) with sheer will, offensive rebounding, and a lot of trips to the foul line at the end.  Kobe survived a 6 for 25 nightmare to put up a 23 and 15, piecing together a tough resourceful game on a night when the legs weren’t there.  Just like the 1998 game, this Game 7 featured sheer palpable intensity and exhaustion.  Both teams had nothing left to give.  I think of the look on Muhammad Ali’s face when he won the Thrilla in Manilla.

The Eerie Parralel, Part Two – The Game 7 between Houston and New York in 1994, notably the OJ series.  The parallel here of course was John Starks’ 2 for 18.  Ray Allen’s 3 for 14 was not as bad, but once again a key shooter having the lid on the basket.  For an undermanned Celtics side, who actually executed really well – so many open looks to have misgivings about.

The Artest for Ariza Swap – On a day that the Lakers absolutely needed Artest to not just be a role player, but a creator and two way star of his own, Artest delivered hitting the dagger 3 and being outstanding throughout.  Ariza could never have done this.

The Officiating – In the first quarter, the referees called the game very very liberally.  The physical, intense style was encouraged.  They let them play.  As the game went on, the whistles got tighter, when by the 4th the Celtics watched the Lakers take something like 15 of their 37 attempts.  It did not feel like there was an aggressiveness gap either, as Pierce was not getting calls driving to the cup – and Kobe got one 3 shot foul on a play when Ray Allen did not touch him.  The Celtics were not robbed – but they were fighting a lot of forces down the stretch.

A Classic? – It took Game 7 to have the one true knee knocker in this series.  One of the great Game 7s for sure, though it’s intensity and drama were the touchstones, not the art.  The game definitely had the feel of two exhausted sides who just willed out one more performance.  Heart everywhere.

What’s Next – Well the NBA draft next Thursday.  For the Lakers, they are the favorites to repeat next year as of now, and if they do land Chris Bosh, they might be on “70 win” watch.  Maybe.  The Celtics have a lot of uncertainty, but the East is open enough that it is hard to envision Boston slipping too much.  Realistically Danny Ainge has a chance to take the first steps towards a post Big 3 reality, rebuild on the fly a little.  We’ll see what happens.

06.16.10
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2010 NBA Finals Game 6: Lakers 89, Celtics 67

In the interest of full disclosure, I have to admit I missed the entire fourth quarter.  After the scintillating 2008 Game 4, and being in the stands in 2002 against New Jersey – I like to think I have a decent sense of what is “possible”.  I was getting annoyed in the third quarter as the Lakers lead was hovering in the 15-20 range … the Celtics were showing no signs of life offensively, but were a run away from making it interesting.  Fortunately that ended with a thud in and I could sleep easy.

Really the Lakers just wanted this game more – there is no real mystery.  The hustle stats show.  The Lakers outrebounded Boston 52-39 overall but an almost incomprehensible 30-13 in the first half when the game was basically decided.  The 12 steals, 8 blocks … floor burns, everything was tilting the Lakers way.  In a lot of ways the yammering I did for Game 1 apply just as truly here.  Aside from a potentially fatal injury to Kendrick Perkins, there is little about what transpired in Game 6 that could not be addressed by simply hard work and just making shots.

The Lakers played a great defensive game – that is self evident.  However, the Celtics shot 33%!  When a shooting percentage gets that low, defense cannot be alone an explanatory variable.  It is hard to remember so many missed dunks, layups, anything.  There was a veritable cornucopia of offensive suck – and only Ray Allen was exempt from the wagging finger of shame in this regard.  In particular, Rondo have his most useless game of the series.  Entering the finals, we expected that he’d have to be the Celtics best player for this whole thing to work – and really besides Game 2 that has simply not been the case.  That they are so close to the ring despite that is a kind of miracle.

So after all of this, there is a Game 7.  I think at this point the Lakers are the favorite, but they have been so all series.  Note the Lakers have the two routs in this series, while all of Boston’s wins have been nervous.  In a way the best thing for the Celtics (besides winning) was getting creamed.  The team’s attention will be refocused, the players were allowed to rest … and to be fair, the defense only allowed 61 points over the remaining three quarters.  The answers are there in front of them.  Now if Kendrick Perkins cannot go tomorrow – that does hurt their defense and their ability to be physical.  It hurts it a lot – and asking Admiral Akbar to pick up the slack is a bit too much.  Ultimately in a series that has had everything, a final plot twist was necessary.  I am both looking forward to and dreading Thursday night at the same time.

06.14.10
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2010 NBA Finals Game 5: Celtics 92, Lakers 86

After a miserable, entertainment free 50-32 regular season, the Celtics have improbably played their last game at home this year and go to Los Angeles with a chance to win the NBA title.  I am still in disbelief – on the other hand I am scared of how the team has set me up for a crushing heartbreak.  But that is for another time.  So, what do we make of Game 5?

  1. The first time they all clicked: After Game 1 and Game 4 (where frankly nobody went off) and Game 2 (Allen/Rondo only), the Celtics top four guys had each had serious struggles.  But tonight, led by Paul Pierce’s 27 and Kevin Garnett’s 18, the old guys carried the day, even with a more muted bench contribution. (not a bad contribution but more limited in the way one’d expect)
  2. Great defense? Kobe on paper put up a Herculean 38 points on 13-27 shooting, but trust me, THIS was hard.  Ray Allen, Tony Allen whomever did a very good job on making Kobe take tough shots.  Dude is tough, as his dazzling 19 point third quarter showed up.  As Doc Rivers said, they had to play through it, and the Celtics in the third ended up extending their lead during Kobe’s hot streak.
  3. Bynum’s Impact: Bynum was healthy and played 31 minutes, but only got one rebound.  Without him being a serious threat, this is the 2008 Lakers basically, albeit not THAT soft.  Really, the Lakers need to supporting cast to start delivering again.
  4. Hustle and English: I thought Baby’s drooling would be the image of the series.  It might have been replaced by a sensational block by Tony Allen on Pau Gasol, and then a gorgeous over the shoulder English-ridden layup by Rajon Rondo when the Celtics had to break a late press with just 2 seconds left on the half court clock.

Ultimately, in the Celtics last home game of the season, the fans carried them home – despite almost blowing a 12 point lead (on the foul line mostly!).  Now, got to find one more win this week.