World Cup Final: Spain 1, Netherlands 0 – some random thoughts

Before we get to the World Cup Final, I’d be remiss to add another couple thoughts about LeBron.

  • As is often the case, Joe Posnanski explained it the best.  On national TV, a 25 year old prodigy at the height of his powers admitted he did not want to be an immortal.  A-Rod to Jeter, Pippen to Jordan.  It was just too much work.
  • It’s clear LeBron self identifies as a winner.  He follows the Yankees and Cowboys though he is an Ohioan.  He is a frontrunner.  Being able to hang with some friends while feeding his frontrunning tendencies was all too typical.
  • Titles are not entitled.  When LeBron talked about wanting a chance to win – somehow (as flawed as the Cavs were) a team with 128 wins in 2 seasons is not a non-contender.  But he sees himself as a winner, and cannot handle the notion that he isn’t.  Rick Reilly said “He doesn’t need to win like he needs his next breath, like Lance Armstrong.”  This is wrong.  More accurately he needs to be a winner more desperately than anybody.  He does not feel the need to be the best to do so – he just likes the glow.

Now onto the World Cup, and a somewhat less than riveting Spain win over the Netherlands:

  • The officials, awful all World Cup, kept it up.  The Netherlands did deserve more fouls – they were very chippy once they realized they could not take possession from Spain.  They got physical.  But the yellow card fever was way too much, especially considering that most of the offenses were dives.  Moreover the one foul by De Jong which WAS a red card worthy offense, the refs missed.
  • Spain scored the fewest goals of any World Cup winner, but they were not a negative side.  Really with Fernando Torres’ horrendous tournament, the team lacked (besides the great David Villa) finishing touch.  When you possess without finishing, it becomes agonizing at times.  But Spain, their defense was excellent throughout – 0 goals allowed in the knockout stage says it all.
  • And Spain was positive!  In overtime and the last few minutes, Spain was the one who chased the win – the Dutch, partially due to exhaustion, were clearly staring at the clock.  When Iniesta scored the magical goal – it was fully deserved.  Spain kept trying.
  • Full marks to the Dutch though.  They played pragmatically, and a bit negatively.  But they outplayed Spain for a large portion of the middle hour of regulation, and Iker Casilla’s brilliance kept them from winning.  The Dutch did what they had to do – and it was almost enough.
  • Maybe wanting a truly great winner take all soccer game is impossible.  The tension, how much the sides care, the fear of making THE big mistake.  It prevents teams from going balls to the wall.  Only Spain did at the end in this game.  But a cautious defensive yuckfest might be the default state.

The LeBachelor

It could not be more damaging to the career of Andrew Dice Clay if it had been made as a documentary by someone who hated him.

- Roger Ebert on Dice Rules

He could have just as easily had been describing LeBron James’ portrayal of LeBron James in ESPN’s 30 for 30 documentary “LeBron James: Decision”.  Wait?  It’s not a 30 for 30?  My bad.  I will admit – I watched.  As an NBA fan and a self proclaimed pop culture aficionado, how could I not?  Besides getting the news story – that he is going to the Heat, making them the favorites in the East even if they get 9 cab drivers to occupy the remaining roster spots – the special was reality TV at its worst and most inevitable.

Indeed, this could not have done more to hurt James’ image than an expose by somebody who despised him.  That this production was devised by his management team and midwifed by ESPN makes it utterly flabbergasting.  If the World Cup was ESPN at its best, this is the Worldwide Leader might have been rock bottom.  Given that they were the network behind “Who’s Hot?” and Dick Vitale’s xenophobic rants on the NBA draftcast, that’s saying something.

Now, the first thing TS mentioned to me was that all he wants to do is win – isn’t that like other ath-a-letes?  After all, as a Celtics fan, isn’t this the same as what happened in 2008 when the Celtics landed Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen?  If one wants to make that argument, I can see it to a degree.  However, Kevin Garnett was one of the 5 best players of the 2000s, and was on a team that was below .500.  So was Ray Allen and Pierce.  They were in pretty horrendous situations – and all past their primes.  The strategy employed by Boston was VERY high risk – that it has gotten a title and a runner up is the high end outcome.  On the other hand, LeBron, at the height of his powers, is leaving a contender (for all the bashing the Cavaliers deservedly get as an organization, this team won 128 games in 2 seasons and only lost to teams that were arguably at least as good as they were) to form a super team.  Bill Simmons posited that this was all decided as early as 2007.  ”A few weeks after the 2008 Summer Olympics, Someone Who Knows Things told me the following rumor: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Chris Paul became such good friends during the 2007 Olympic trials, and then during their 2008 Olympics excursion in Beijing, that they actually made a pact in China to play together.”  In other words, the best basketball player in the world might be a fifteen year old girl.  Futhermore, where is the urge to beat the best?  At their peak, I reckon Bird wanted to beat Magic, not join him.  This whole thing reveals the sort of competitor he actually is.  In other words – not what we thought.

But enough of the competitive ramifications – the Heat will be good, period.  What one marvels at is the utter tone deafness of LeBron’s team during the entire run.  For instance, there is the very real possibility that LeBron has been sitting on this news for a long time.  But instead of a presscon and full paged ad to Cleveland fans, like a normal player might do (ok, maybe even a tweet) – LeBron’s team put together a one hour show – hired noted hack Jim Gray to interview him, and sold it to ESPN.  ESPN of course, got exactly what it wanted.  He set it at the Greenwich, Connecticut Boys and Girls Club – the noted trick of surrounding him with kids so no really inflammatory questions can be asked (not that Gray, on LeBron’s payroll, would do that) – leaving open the possibility of Vince McMahon showing up.

But alas no Vince McMahon, Shawn Michaels, Brett Michaels or any other possibility of actual entertainment or insight followed.  The studio show had league partner Stuart Scott and the ABC NBA crew of John Barry, Wilbon etc.  The possibility of asking him why he chose a national TV forum to publicly urinate on the people of Cleveland was basically zero.  They made empty headed happy talk – they had correspondents at all the relvant NBA cities.  I remember thinking how absurd the depiction of the chase for Jesus Shuttlesworth was in He Got Game – it turns out that Spike Lee was 12 years too early.

Anyway then, Jim Gray started with his questions – idiotic small talk, and it took a FULL 25 MINUTES before LeBron made the announcement.  He confessed he did not tell any of the other pursuing teams until now.  He announced his departure “I am taking my skills to South Beach” and that was that – except there were 30 more minutes of air time to fill.  The only satisfactory moment was his uncomfortable look throughout the interview and especially at a burning jersey shown to him from Cleveland.

Now, Cleveland fans should not be burning jerseys, and Dan Gilbert is a spectacular hypocrite.  After all LeBron changed basketball teams – he didn’t flood Lake Erie with crude oil or anything.  He has the right to change employers – as we all do.  HOWEVER, the choice to go on national television and publicly embarass his fans by leaving them (in other words, he turned heel, he broke up on the jumbotron … that is a bit less forgiveable.  How did his team think it was a good idea?  It was the greatest emasculation a city’s sports fans could ever have – and for no reason.  What was LeBron thinking?  We’ll never know.

Dare to Be Stupid – NBA Free Agency, LeBron Today

FINALLY, some news!

Orlando Magic sign Chris Duhon for 4 years, $15 million: Chris Duhon once had a 20 assist game.  He actually did a fairly good job running the Knicks D’Antoni attack until the sheer volume of minutes killed him.  He is not a starter for a good NBA team – but can he be a backup for a great one?  Absolutely.  He defends, he is not a penetrator – and while he is only a league average 3-point shooter, he can make it enough to space the floor the way the Magic want.  At the price, a totally reasonable signing – though the years are more than I would give a backup.

Boston Celtics re-sign Ray Allen for 2 years, $20 million: This deal puts Ray and KG on the same contract schedule.  When the Celtics re-signed Paul Pierce, they declared they would ride these guys out as long as is feasible.  While there is some risk there – honestly it was not a bad option.  They could have let Pierce and Allen walk and be under the cap and in the position to get a big name – but there was no guarantee it would work.  If Chicago – which offered a great scenario for the Big 3 free agents – end up with none of them, how can Boston?  I guess people are afraid of the cold.  As such, Ray Allen is paid well reasonably here – and the years are there.  The 2nd year is his option.

Chicago Bulls sign Carlos Boozer for 5 years, $80 million: Boozer has a history of missed games.  That is a problem.  If he is injured through the life of this contract – don’t say I didn’t warn you.  That said, in THIS insane market, the Bulls got a screaming bargain – if you just look at productivity and not durability.  The Bulls have needed a post scorer – they have one.  They needed someone who can work a pick and roll with a dynamic point guard – they have one.  Boozer looked bad against the Lakers because of his lack of length – but there are 28 other teams in the league where it is not such a latent problem.  The Bulls with a couple more smaller moves could set up to be a Top 4 team in the East.

Miami Heat sign Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh for some amount of American dollars: I was surprised they did not ride in on a tandem bicycle for their interview.  What sort of analysis is necessary here?  This is a great move for the Heat.  That said, without some heft on the bench – this is not enough to break into the Orlando-Boston tier in the East.  Right now it is a 2.5 person team.  Now with these guys they could attract some people to join them in tax free Florida – but they haven’t yet.  However, if they add that LeBron dude – all bets are off.

Now, as for what LeBron should do?  There was word of him going to the Heat – at this point it’s all speculation.  Frankly, I think for the league and for the sport – and for whatever his legacy is – it is probably the stupidest option:

  1. Dwayne Wade has already won a title.  Does LeBron need to ride his coattails in Miami to win another?  Does LeBron need to be a final piece to some other team’s puzzle?  I know I am being unfair, but that is the perception he will have to deal with.
  2. Was there really this clamoring for a dream team?  I mean these guys won a gold medal.  We know they are good.  The Chicago Bulls 72 win team was awe inspiring – but it was the culmination (largely) of a 10 year run.  The essential pieces stayed true – and were Bulls the entire time.  This is much more of a mercenary soldiers-for-hire sort of thing.  Not exactly inspiring.
  3. The Really Big Three set themselves up to be regarded like the 2003 Real Madrid side or any Chelsea football team of yore.  The pressure will be incalculable and perhaps the joy will be minimal.  Granted, the 2009 Yankees seemed to enjoy it – and the 2008 Boston Celtics were composed in a somewhat similar manner, but the Celtics were not sure if their moves would win a title.  This just does not seem like something a true competitor would do.  Indeed, Kobe’s legacy will be secure.

The special is being aired from the Greenwich, Connecticut Boys and Girls Club – near where the Knicks practice.  Is that a better indicator?  Maybe.  The Knicks make much more sense on a different level.  With Stoudemire as a #2, that is good enough to win a title with some smart filling in on the edges.  The Nets have enough young talent that LeBron could be the straw that stirs the drink.  Chicago has always been a great bet to turn it around quickly too.  Dallas would have been the most fun choice for him – but I am surprised neither side looked at each other harder.

The LeBacle: Celtics 120, Cavaliers 88

Well, many other writers I respect have weighed in (even if you might need to pay a little extra to see it).  So, clearly I am late to the party.  However, after LeBron’s putrid 3 for 14, in Cleveland’s shocking loss to Boston last night, it is would be wrong for someone who chronicled NBA power rankings to let it go without comment.  What did I see in the game?

Clearly, LeBron is struggling.  Whether it be the elbow or whatnot, he has not been as insistent as he has been in his better performances.  Indeed, examining the Cavaliers 117-113 loss to Boston at the end end of the regular season where Cleveland nearly came back from 22 down, LeBron took 31 shots and 22 FTs to go with 9 assists!  In fact, looking at all of the regular season results, this is what you get:

Regular Season vs Celtics

FG FGA FT FTA OffReb Ass TO M
Cavs 143 306 98 141 36 81 43 192
LeBron 46 97 46 66 5 33 12 165
Possessions 375.04 384 PPP 1.024 LeBron usage 0.400
LeBron Poss 149.04 149 1.000 LeBron create 0.388

I use Hollinger’s Usage Rate Calculation here. And note, there are no 3 pointers in play here – just so the assists are treated all equally (even if that is not true in a practical sense).  So LeBron was involved in 40% of the Cavaliers possessions vs the Celtics and generated nearly 39% of the offense.  In the 117-113 aforementioned game, LeBron had to assert himself, and thus his usage went up to 51%!  Over half the Cavs possessions while he was on the floor involved him in some form or another.  This is their offensive philosophy.

Look at the playoff games and what do we get?

This Series

FG FGA FT FTA OffReb Ass TO Min
Cavs 165 357 134 176 38 99 71 240
LeBron 43 93 43 58 6 33 18 208
Possessions 467.44 464 PPP 0.993 LeBron usage 0.318
LeBron Poss 147.52 140 0.949 LeBron create 0.302

So the usage dropped all series, down from 40% of possessions in the Celtics games to 31.8%.  This is a 21% drop from the regular season meetings.  LeBron has also created less of the Cavs offense by 22.2%.  The Celtics defense can get some credit – and this dropoff might be nice if we were talking about great Cavs offense.  However, the Cavs points per possession have dropped.  So the Cavs offense has dropped and LeBron’s INVOLVEMENT has dropped also.

The nadir of course was the LeBacle.  His line represented a ghastly 30.3% usage rate generating a mere 20.9% of the points.  30.3% against 40.0% in the regular season!!  This is a drop of nearly 1/4.  LeBron just did not assert himself.

Whether it is injuries or the metaphysical baloney Chuck was mentioning on Inside the NBA, LeBron has to step his game up again.  LeBron was brilliant all postseason last year, even in defeat.  This series he has not insisted on being counted – not yet anyway.  He is not the first star to have a bad stretch – indeed Kobe blatantly mailed in playoff games before – but he has a lot to answer for.

And with that, I jink my Celtics.