Tag Archives: Los Angeles

by

2012 MLB Update #4 – The Home Stretch

First, apologies in advance for the lack of attentiveness and diligence with putting together baseball missives – indeed the season has flown by, and the Red Sox-Dodgers blockbuster clearly announced the exit of Boston from the pennant chase and reconfigured the race for 2012 and beyond.  Or did it really?  A bit more on this, but first, the rankings as of today:

Rank Team W L Pythag SOS Recent RecRank Total
1 Saint Louis Cardinals 71 57 0.61 (1) 0.51 (2) 0.573 3 0.564
2 Atlanta Braves 73 56 0.579 (5) 0.496 (20) 0.616 2 0.564
3 Tampa Bay Rays 70 58 0.57 (6) 0.493 (23) 0.625 1 0.563
4 Washington Nationals 77 50 0.6 (2) 0.505 (6) 0.561 4 0.555
5 Chicago White Sox 71 56 0.565 (8) 0.505 (7) 0.557 5 0.542
6 Texas Rangers 76 52 0.593 (3) 0.496 (19) 0.536 11 0.542
7 Cincinnati Reds 78 52 0.568 (7) 0.508 (3) 0.537 10 0.538
8 New York Yankees 74 54 0.585 (4) 0.484 (30) 0.538 9 0.536
9 Oakland Athletics 70 57 0.541 (9) 0.493 (25) 0.544 8 0.526
10 Detroit Tigers 69 58 0.528 (12) 0.495 (22) 0.552 6 0.525
11 Milwaukee Brewers 60 67 0.507 (17) 0.514 (1) 0.545 7 0.522
12 Los Angeles Dodgers 69 60 0.53 (11) 0.507 (5) 0.523 14 0.52
13 Arizona Diamondbacks 64 65 0.527 (13) 0.505 (8) 0.525 13 0.519
14 San Francisco Giants 71 57 0.53 (10) 0.501 (11) 0.506 16 0.512
15 Seattle Mariners 62 67 0.504 (18) 0.488 (28) 0.533 12 0.508
16 Boston Red Sox 62 67 0.527 (14) 0.493 (24) 0.49 17 0.503
17 Pittsburgh Pirates 68 60 0.51 (16) 0.507 (4) 0.463 23 0.493
18 San Diego Padres 60 70 0.452 (23) 0.504 (9) 0.513 15 0.49
19 Anaheim Angels 66 62 0.52 (15) 0.492 (26) 0.451 25 0.488
20 Philadelphia Phillies 61 67 0.478 (19) 0.5 (12) 0.479 19 0.485
21 Kansas City Royals 56 71 0.451 (24) 0.499 (15) 0.484 18 0.478
22 Baltimore Orioles 70 57 0.46 (22) 0.488 (27) 0.474 20 0.474
23 Colorado Rockies 52 75 0.423 (25) 0.5 (13) 0.474 21 0.466
24 Minnesota Twins 52 76 0.41 (27) 0.496 (21) 0.466 22 0.457
25 New York Mets 59 69 0.464 (21) 0.497 (18) 0.41 27 0.457
26 Chicago Cubs 49 78 0.4 (28) 0.499 (14) 0.456 24 0.452
27 Miami Marlins 58 71 0.411 (26) 0.498 (16) 0.439 26 0.449
28 Toronto Blue Jays 57 70 0.47 (20) 0.488 (29) 0.367 30 0.442
29 Cleveland Indians 55 73 0.386 (29) 0.498 (17) 0.378 28 0.421
30 Houston Astros 40 88 0.338 (30) 0.502 (10) 0.369 29 0.403

If we went and projected records (using ranking for rest of season), your playoff seeds:

American League:

  1. Texas Rangers (94-68)
  2. New York Yankees (92-70)
  3. Chicago White Sox (90-72)
  4. Oakland Athletics (88-74)
  5. Detroit Tigers (87-75)

National League

  1. Washington Nationals (96-66)
  2. Cincinnati Reds (95-67)
  3. San Francisco Giants (88-74)
  4. Atlanta Braves (92-70)
  5. Saint Louis Cardinals (90-72)
  • Obviously, the Nationals’ magical season has continued unabated.  There is the Stephen Strasburg drama – and the Nationals decision is defensible, although I definitely disagree – but even without him their rotation is formidable.  That said, a rotation sans Strasburg and a fairly pedestrian lineup could spell a short stay in October.
  • On the other hand, the Cardinals are still in a strong chase for the wild card.  The Giants, Dodgers, Pirates are all still very much in the chase.  That said, unlike the Nationals, the Cardinals seem the total package.  Their league best pythagorean speaks to just how strong their peripherals are.  The wins have not showed up frequently enough, but this is a seriously dangerous outfit if they can find their way into the main draw.  The Braves-Cardinals wild card game might be the most dramatic single game of the entire NL playoffs.
  • The Dodgers as of now rate as an 86-76 team, but this is without considering the fascinating trade which netted them Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford.  Is there reason to think these changes will help them to close the gap with either the Giants or Cards?  Well, Adrian Gonzalez is going to have a huge impact – not just because he is a good ballplayer, but because he is replacing James Loney – who is providing middle infield level production at first freakin base.  Anytime you can bounce back from true replacement level to fringy elite, there can be an outsized impact in the wash.  As a Red Sox fan though, it is hard to see Josh Beckett bouncing back to more than 4/5 sort of starter though.  The pitches don’t work anymore and his own approach to pitching has never been “crafty”.
  • The deal guarantees nothing for Boston obviously.  Prospects are dudes who haven’t delivered in a major league capacity – that is the point.  The only major league body they have is James Loney, who is barely that.  That said, the prospects Boston did get were among the best in the Dodgers’ system – both De La Rosa and Webster have been graded very favorability as arms with significant promise.  That the Red Sox got actual prospects in a salary dump is a small miracle.  The Red Sox have some of their future back – which says good things about Ben Cherington as GM – if the bizarre, status obsessed ownership lets him do his thing.  But can these owners leave well enough alone and let winning move the needle?  Well, that’s the allotment of optimism I have for my day.
by

Dare to be Stupid: The Dwight Howard Trade

Let’s start with one thing.  I don’t know what offers the Orlando Magic actually had here.  Were they really poring through various offers of other teams’ trash?  Was this really some Building 19 special we were dealing with?  It all seems terribly weird for the league’s 2nd best player.  Yeah yeah yeah, it is chic to say that Kevin Durant is the league’s best non-LeBron James player, but Dwight Howard’s total impact on both sides of the floor (as well as the general VORP factors associated with centers) is too hard to ignore.  So, lapsing into Hubie Brown’s cadence, you have the 2nd best player in the league – one who could be a free agent after this season, what is he worth?

We know that Houston amassed trade assets by the boatload leading up to this – between some credible draft picks, cap space and players who know how to play basketball and have some upside – yeah not star upside, but rotation level upside.  We know that Atlanta could have offered Al Horford and Jeff Teague – granted their motivation to do so might have been modest considering that they could have tried to sign Howard outright after the season.  It is hard to think that Aaron Affalo, Al Harrington, Nikova Vucevic, Moe Harkless, a bunch of low value draft picks is a fair price for the 2nd best player in the league.  I mean, that is a combined 0 players who are likely to be key players on the next good Orlando team.  Apparently Orlando has a beat on Jabari Parker in 2014 or something – otherwise this is pretty horrible return for a truly great (albeit truly flaky) player.

For the Lakers, this is obviously heist.  After trading a bunch of picks they don’t want for Steve Nash, getting Dwight Howard for Andrew Bynum and a sack of potatoes is pretty amazing.  With Antawn Jamison augmenting their depth, the Lakers are still way thinner than what you’d prefer and relying on some old guys with big egos (Kobe cough cough), and the pieces do not fit precisely.  But they have four of the 25 best players in the game!  Is Dwight Howard healthy and capable of being the next great Lakers center and phase into the leader of the franchise?  Well he won’t have to lead right away.  Lakers have moved up to a solid 3rd in the pecking order behind Miami and OKC.

Denver’s role here is weird.  On one hand you can blame them for midwifing a trade that reduces their chance of winning.  That said, you’d make the Affalo-Harrington for Iguodala deal tomorrow.  And he is perfect for George Karl’s system – athletic, elite defender.  Given Denver’s model, this was a really shrewd trade.  And really, Lakers or Thunder or Spurs – they probably were not going to usurp any of them anyhoo.  They get a solid A- here.

The Sixers you have to wonder – would they have amnestied Elton Brand if they knew that they could have gotten Andrew Bynum.  Doubtlessly that would have been better than Bynum and Spencer Hawes or whatever.  But that said, Andrew Bynum – health risk and all – is the best player legitimately available to acquire outside of Dwight and they landed him.  Bynum is from Jersey and the Sixers will have an edge in money they can offer.  Bynum is no lock to sign, but the Sixers have as good a chance as anybody – maybe better than that. Studs don’t show up every day – so when you can get one – ask questions later.

Overall Grades: Magic D, Lakers A+, Nuggets A-, Sixers A-

 

by

2012 MLB Update #2

Last time we did this was at the end of May – where the surprising start of the Los Angeles Dodgers had seemed to be lording over the league – of course after four straight shutout losses, and Matt Kemp’s prolonged absence – their hideous offense has seemed to catch up with them.  (Seriously, James Loney as a a first basemen for a team with any aspirations – .236/.303/.323).  Saint Louis has seemed to be the best in the NL – at least thinking about them entering the season, and it has largely stood up – although their close game record has been peculiar.   But as we hurtle towards the halfway point of the season, suddenly the cream is starting to rise:

Rank Team W L Pythag SOS Recent RecRank Total
1 Texas Rangers 49 29 0.629 (1) 0.501 (16) 0.579 5 0.569
2 Boston Red Sox 41 36 0.573 (6) 0.499 (19) 0.623 1 0.565
3 Anaheim Angels 43 34 0.578 (5) 0.498 (20) 0.616 2 0.564
4 Chicago White Sox 42 35 0.57 (7) 0.508 (6) 0.56 7 0.546
5 Washington Nationals 44 31 0.582 (3) 0.504 (12) 0.551 8 0.546
6 New York Mets 42 36 0.532 (11) 0.498 (21) 0.593 3 0.541
7 Saint Louis Cardinals 40 37 0.583 (2) 0.512 (3) 0.504 14 0.533
8 New York Yankees 46 30 0.581 (4) 0.487 (26) 0.526 11 0.531
9 Pittsburgh Pirates 41 35 0.505 (16) 0.504 (11) 0.584 4 0.531
10 Arizona Diamondbacks 39 37 0.533 (10) 0.506 (9) 0.546 9 0.528
11 Oakland Athletics 37 41 0.502 (17) 0.49 (24) 0.56 6 0.517
12 San Francisco Giants 44 34 0.526 (14) 0.511 (5) 0.504 15 0.514
13 Cincinnati Reds 42 35 0.527 (13) 0.504 (10) 0.506 13 0.512
14 Toronto Blue Jays 39 38 0.535 (8) 0.487 (27) 0.497 17 0.507
15 Milwaukee Brewers 34 42 0.471 (21) 0.519 (1) 0.503 16 0.498
16 Philadelphia Phillies 36 43 0.484 (18) 0.511 (4) 0.497 18 0.497
17 Tampa Bay Rays 41 36 0.508 (15) 0.483 (29) 0.495 19 0.495
18 Kansas City Royals 35 39 0.458 (23) 0.499 (18) 0.526 10 0.494
19 Detroit Tigers 37 40 0.481 (19) 0.492 (23) 0.508 12 0.494
20 Atlanta Braves 40 36 0.534 (9) 0.487 (28) 0.43 27 0.484
21 Los Angeles Dodgers 43 35 0.53 (12) 0.513 (2) 0.381 30 0.475
22 Seattle Mariners 34 46 0.467 (22) 0.488 (25) 0.44 24 0.465
23 Baltimore Orioles 42 34 0.476 (20) 0.473 (30) 0.445 23 0.464
24 Houston Astros 32 45 0.429 (26) 0.507 (7) 0.447 22 0.461
25 Cleveland Indians 38 38 0.433 (24) 0.499 (17) 0.438 26 0.457
26 Chicago Cubs 27 48 0.405 (27) 0.504 (13) 0.454 21 0.454
27 San Diego Padres 28 50 0.365 (30) 0.506 (8) 0.482 20 0.451
28 Colorado Rockies 29 46 0.429 (25) 0.504 (14) 0.394 29 0.442
29 Miami Marlins 36 40 0.404 (28) 0.501 (15) 0.4 28 0.435
30 Minnesota Twins 30 45 0.366 (29) 0.497 (22) 0.44 25 0.434

We have been waiting for the Rangers to really start to assert themselves. Indeed Texas and Anaheim on paper looked like the best teams in baseball entering the season – Anaheim with its terrific pitching and Texas with its overall balance.  I don’t buy Boston as the #2 team either, but they have been very good lately with a 12-7 record and the top run differential during that time.  Bobby Valentine is a weird, oily guy – and Terry Francona did a magnificent job in his time – but Bobby has done an outstanding job with a patchwork outfield and figuring out a bullpen which looked like a human powder keg.

Clearly – the paper tiger so far has been Baltimore, with a negative run differential but still a 42-34 record.  On the other hand, with the second wild card position – that is 42 wins they don’t have to get, so while the rankings project Baltimore to finish 82-80, 85-77 might be good enough to make the playoffs.  What is particularly notable this season is how close the entire field actually is.  You look at the rankings themselves – the difference between #4 and #10 works out to 2 wins over a 162 game slate.  Indeed, the rankings only see four 90 win teams right now (Rangers, Angels, Yankees, Nationals) let alone any 100 win team.  This season has been a particular display of parity and it will be interesting to see if this holds.

by

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #10 – Final Report and Playoff Preview

First as you have probably seen from the last couple of entries, people still have Cystic Fibrosis – blah blah blah – click here to help …

FINALLY.  The best of the playoff seasons is upon us.  Of course this was after a truly execrable last couple of weeks of the season where teams were playing scrubs shamelessly while still charging full prices.  The Tuesday Celtics-Heat game was a particular atrocity.  So the rankings could be skewed a tiny bit.  But whatever, the playoffs are here and looks at the series are coming up … how have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (2) Bulls (50-16)
  2. (4) Spurs (50-16)
  3. (1) Thunder (47-19)
  4. (3) Heat (46-20)
  5. (5) Sixers (35-31)
  6. (10) Nugggets (38-28)
  7. (6) Celtics (39-27)
  8. (8) Hawks (40-26)
  9. (7) Grizzlies (41-25)
  10. (15) Clippers (40-26)
  11. (13) Mavericks (36-30)
  12. (9) Lakers (41-25)
  13. (14) Knicks (36-30)
  14. (16) Pacers (42-24)
  15. (11) Magic (37-29)
  16. (12) Rockets (34-32)
  17. (18) Suns (33-33)
  18. (20) Jazz (36-30)
  19. (19) Bucks (31-35)
  20. (17) Blazers (28-38)
  21. (21) Timberwolves (26-40)
  22. (22) Warriors (23-43)
  23. (24) Hornets (21-45)
  24. (23) Raptors (23-43)
  25. (25) Kings (22-44)
  26. (29) Wizards (20-46)
  27. (27) Pistons (25-42)
  28. (28) Nets (22-44)
  29. (26) Wizards (21-45)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-59)

It’s the playoffs!  So – quick looks at your first round series are in order:

  • (E1) Bulls v (E8) Sixers – This is #1 vs #5.  What a matchup!  However, the Sixers have really stumbled down the stretch, but the metrics have been strong as the Sixers blowouts early still have resonance.  The Bulls with Derrick Rose’s dicey injury situation could be great – but they could be tricky.  Defense will be the order of the day (#2 v #3) and neither team is great from outside.  I can’t imagine the Bulls losing this but the Sixers match up well with them, better than they do with the Heat.  Bulls in 7
  • (E4) Celtics v (E5) Hawks – #7 vs #8.  Interestingly here the lower seed has home court.  The Celtics have been very strong down the stretch.  But so have the Hawks, both in the Top 6 since the trade deadline.  The Celtics have serious issues with rebounding and size, but the Hawks are 26th in offensive rebounding, so it is hard to read that as a huge edge.  The games have all been close in their head to head.  Really more of a coin flip than the experts purport.  Hawks in 7
  • (E2) Heat v (E7) Knicks – #4 vs #13 Fun series with two defensively adept teams.  Anthony and LeBron will be a great matchup and the Novak/Smith bench for the Knicks could explode.  But it is hard to envision the Knicks winning in Miami.  This is a fun series but Heat in 6
  • (E3) Pacers v (E6) Magic – The Pacers have the 5th best record in the league but merely #14 in rankings.  This describes the Pacers in general – a nice team, lot of good players, but is this the juice to win a playoff series?  The Magic will be motivated with no Dwight Howard and “nobody believing in them”. Did the Pacers more competitive than it seemed result vs Chicago last year inform them or will the Magic’s winning experience do it?  Without Glen Davis, the Magic just don’t have enough players now – good or otherwise.  Pacers in 5
  • (W1) Spurs v (W8) Jazz – Spurs can flat out score, but the Jazz can attack with size.  Will the Spurs lose in round 1 again?  Frankly I’d have more faith in the Jazz if their defense was not so mediocre.  Against the buzz saw offense of San Antonio it is tough sledding.  Spurs in 5
  • (W4) Grizzlies v (W5) Clippers – Grizzlies are a sexy pick to upset the apple cart.  However this is not last year’s Zach Randolph.  Meanwhile the Clippers just have more better players and one of the game’s best all around players and leaders.  Look how the Hornets stole 2 games against the Lakers with Chris Paul and nobody – he is just that good.  In the playoffs, the stars play more.  Lob City is not done yet.  Clippers in 6
  • (W2) Thunder v (W7) Mavericks – Hard series to peg.  On paper, Thunder should rip through this.  In actuality, Dallas can throw a lot of junk D at them and make the Thunder really work for it.  But it won’t be enough.  Thunder in 7
  • (W3) Lakers v (W6) Nuggets – Denver has depth.  The Lakers don’t.  Denver has speed, and the Lakers have real issues with that.  But the Lakers have all the really good players here and their size and ability to dictate in the half court.  I hope Denver can make this fun.  I think the Lakers grind it out enough.  Lakers in 6
by

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #9

Ten or so games left, and things are starting to take shape with some amazing jumps since the trade deadline now that we have some games of data to work with.   How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (1) Thunder (42-15)
  2. (2) Bulls (43-14)
  3. (1) Heat (40-15)
  4. (5) Spurs (40-15)
  5. (4) Sixers (29-27)
  6. (16) Celtics (32-24)
  7. (12) Grizzlies (33-23)
  8. (6) Hawks (34-23)
  9. (7) Lakers (36-22)
  10. (9) Nuggets (31-26)
  11. (8) Magic (34-23)
  12. (14) Rockets (32-25)
  13. (10) Mavericks (31-26)
  14. (15) Knicks (29-27)
  15. (13) Clippers (34-23)
  16. (11) Pacers (35-22)
  17. (17) Blazers (27-31)
  18. (22) Suns (30-27) Timberwolves (22-24)
  19. (19) Bucks (28-29)
  20. (21) Jazz (30-28)
  21. (18) Timberwolves (25-33)
  22. (20) Warriors (22-34)
  23. (25) Raptors (20-38)
  24. (23) Hornets (15-42) Cavaliers (17-26)
  25. (26) Kings (19-38)
  26. (24) Cavaliers (18-36)
  27. (27) Pistons (21-36)
  28. (28) Nets (21-37)
  29. (29) Wizards (13-44)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-48)

Some notes:

  • I can hear Jim Ross’ voice now.  (seriously – if you could have any announcer for any sporting event of any sort of meaning – JR takes a back seat to nobody) MY GAWD, IS THAT, IT’S THE BOSTON CELTICS!!!!  The Celtics surge into relevancy has been staggering, especially as their schedule has started to include playoff team after playoff team.  Since the trade deadline Boston is 6th in the league in point differential, and tops in defense allowing a staggering 86 points per average game.  How have they done it?  Well in terms of personnel, the move of Kevin Garnett to center and Avery Bradley to the starting lineup has created an athletic lineup and allowed Boston to play its best players more frequently.  The numbers since the deadline have been amazing, and they have surged into tops in the league for the season.  Without a good rebounding squad, Boston has had to defend the shot hard and they have done so leading the league in FG and 3PT percentage, by such a margin that pedestrian shot prevention (20th) has not been an issue.  I am not saying they will go anywhere – the offense is still putrid by good team standards- but the defensive surge has given them a chance.
  • Similarly the Memphis Grizzlies, after a brief hiccup, have started to get well with a very strong stretch and the adding of Zach Randolph to the mix.  Their 7th ranking seems a bit high, but really they are being buoyed by their league toughest schedule to date.  Also, they – like Boston – are no great shakes offensively.  However, the Grizzlies have put together a good defensive team built on volume.  The Grizzlies force turnovers and rebound misses.  They have the 5th widest gap between their FGs and Opponents on a possession basis.  The rugged physical style makes them a fascinating playoff team – though their unwillingness to shoot 3s is a worry.  Also, volume dependent teams have had a history of struggling as the teams in front of them go up in quality.
  • At the moment the Atlantic Division winner is guaranteed a Top 4 seed, while the runners up are no higher than 7th.  Put simply, the Sixers’ struggles – a combination of poor offense and some really bad close game luck, has then on the edge of having to play Chicago in Round 1.  Boston-Atlanta is a much more benign matchup to say the least.  Out west the surging Grizzlies are only 2 games behind the Lakers for 3rd in the conference.  The folks in Bristol might have a giant circle jerk if that happens as the Lakers-Clippers 1st round series would become a reality.
by

The Announcement

I wonder how many people who watch him on TV even remember.  We see him yukking it up with Jon Barry on Awkward Laughing Weekly NBA Countdown on ESPN, reminiscing about days gone by with rival and close friend Larry Bird, but a mere 20 years ago, I thought he’d have been gone by now.  Look at me, saying a “mere” 20 years.  20 years is obviously barely a fart in cosmic terms, but it’s long enough for a child to have been born, develop an adolescent fixation on cigarettes, and be legally able to feed the addiction without having to resort to a fake ID.  But how it all rushes back when I saw Nelson George’s understated The Announcement, which chronicles the day that Magic Johnson revealed to the rest of us that he was HIV positive.  The movie lives up to the quality that ESPN Films has shown in its 30 for 30 series, but George aims a little deeper than most, and we don’t just get a retrospective on the announcement, but an interesting reflection on Magic Johnson’s poignant triumph, which in some ways might not have been a triumph for the battle against the disease.

I remember the day Magic said he had HIV vividly.  Really, it was hard to separate it from “Magic has AIDS”.  Yeah, I was a Celtics fan, but who could really hate Magic?  The smile, the gregariousness.  Even if it was a media image, he seemed like the friendliest guy on earth.  And for a night, we were pretty sure he only had very limited time here.  The footage of Tom Brokaw, Dan Rather reporting it – the local media guy sitting waiting for Magic’s presser with his eyes watering, Larry Bird talking about not wanting to play that night – the gravity of the announcement came rushing back.  The entire thing now still is pretty amazing in retrospect.

However, what we knew less was what it did to Magic himself.  Well obviously he had HIV and that had to be spooky.  However, what about Magic having his Magicness pulled out from underneath him?  Magic himself in the film never really expresses it so starkly – George leaves those lines for us to fill – but as he recounts his actions and we see him speak, it all sort of came together.  Of course, Magic said he would be a spokesman, and then joined George Bush Sr’s panel.  What else could he do?  He was the world’s most famous HIV patient.  But that was not Magic’s gig – and so he drifted.  Being an activist/political flunky was not going to fill the hole.  When he went back and played the All Star Game though, THAT started to get there.  Of course from there, there was the talk show, and the failed comeback, and then the successful one – and only now has Magic seemed to settle into the life and profile that made the most sense for him.  He has raised money, but has been a hero to the cause of fighting HIV by simply rediscovering himself, and being Magic the entire time.

However, and this is the most interesting point in the film – was simply being famous enough for him to have done the HIV cause proud?  Chris Rock once posited that Bill Cosby did more for black comics by just being Bill Cosby than a more active dude like Dick Gregory.  Did that apply with Magic?  His journey and the advances in medicine have left him nearly HIV-free.  Does that mean, as Andrew Sullivan naively noted, that we are really safe from AIDS now?  Sure, HIV at this point is like many forms of cancer now – get it early, attack is sufficiently, you should be able to live a pretty normal life, but that ain’t “cured”.  Magic seems to get it – and laments that in his own journey he might have contributed to the false sense of security that folks like Andrew Sullivan can make such a weirdo claim.  It does not take much to veer into wacky African politician territory from there.  I was expecting a good story about a seminal event of my lifetime, but George has gone one better and provided a meditation on triumphing over HIV, both in a macro and micro way.

by

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #8

Can you believe it?  We are already down to the last third of the season.  The Bulls even have less than 20 games to go.  It feels so abrupt that playoffs and playoff form need to be discussed.  Of course we have the trade deadline, and some early after effects.  We covered the deals of course here.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (1) Heat (34-11)
  2. (2) Bulls (38-10)
  3. (3) Thunder (34-12)
  4. (4) Sixers (26-20)
  5. (5) Spurs (29-14)
  6. (10) Hawks (26-20)
  7. (6) Lakers (28-18)
  8. (11) Magic (29-18)
  9. (8) Nuggets (25-21)
  10. (7) Mavericks (27-20)
  11. (14) Pacers (26-18)
  12. (12) Grizzlies (25-19)
  13. (13) Clippers (27-19)
  14. (15) Rockets (25-22)
  15. (20) Knicks (22-24)
  16. (16) Celtics (24-21)
  17. (9) Blazers (21-25)
  18. (17) Timberwolves (22-24)
  19. (22) Bucks (21-24)
  20. (19) Warriors (18-25)
  21. (18) Jazz (24-22)
  22. (21) Suns (23-23)
  23. (23) Hornets (11-34)
  24. (25) Cavaliers (17-26)
  25. (24) Raptors (15-31)
  26. (26) Kings (17-29)
  27. (28) Pistons (16-29)
  28. (27) Nets (15-32)
  29. (29) Wizards (10-34)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-37)

Some notes:

  • Wowee.  Some plunge the Blazers have taken.  It’s not the losses, but the sheer lack of competitiveness.  I personally was surprised they didn’t stop after firing Nate McMillan (who is a terrific coach, but clearly had wore out his welcome).  But since the deadline the Blazers have been the worst team in the league.  They obviously shook up a lot and pulled a heist trading Gerald Wallace to the Nets.  That said, still – a lot of guys have mailed this season in.
  • Granted the post deadline stats reveal little considering the sample sizes, but the Bucks have clearly benefited from their move.  In particular they have been the top offense since the deadline with a staggering 117 points per game (pace adjusted), 8 points better than the Knicks (who have been inspired since their coaching change).  But the Bucks are also defending much better, which feels less sustainable given the personnel changes.  But the Bucks needed offense, and they needed guys who weren’t injured.  The trade has accomplished both from early evidence.
  • The Bobcats are still awful, and I know nothing about the West aside from the Thunder and Spurs being atop it.  The Lakers are 3rd yes, but still a mere 4 games ahead of 9th place.  It is very unlikely they miss the playoffs, but not impossible.

 

by

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #4

With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (3) Bulls (21-6)
  2. (2) Sixers (18-7)
  3. (1) Heat (18-6)
  4. (6) Thunder (19-5)
  5. (8) Blazers (14-11)
  6. (4) Hawks (16-9)
  7. (5) Nuggets (15-10)
  8. (9) Spurs (17-9)
  9. (11) Lakers (14-11)
  10. (12) Celtics (13-10)
  11. (10) Clippers (15-7)
  12. (15) Pacers (16-7)
  13. (7) Mavericks (14-11)
  14. (14) Rockets (14-11)
  15. (17) Grizzlies (12-13)
  16. (13) Timberwolves (12-12)
  17. (18) Magic (15-10)
  18. (16) Jazz (13-10)
  19. (19) Bucks (10-13)
  20. (21) Suns (10-14)
  21. (22) Warriors (8-13)
  22. (24) Knicks (10-15)
  23. (20) Hornets (4-21)
  24. (25) Cavaliers (9-13)
  25. (23) Raptors (8-18)
  26. (28) Kings (9-15)
  27. (26) Nets (8-18)
  28. (27) Wizards (5-20)
  29. (28) Pistons (6-20)
  30. (30) Bobcats (3-21)

Some notes:

  1. Back in the top spot is Chicago – they have been there before this year, they finished the regular season last year #1.  Put simply, there is something to lean on here.  That said, as the Miami playoff showed, the offense was a problem.  The Bulls won last year with a combination of the league’s best defense and an offense that was above average – much the same formula the Celtics took to the title when Tom Thibodeau was assisting Doc Rivers.  That said, unlike the Celtics – the Bulls were in 2011 one of the league’s better shot generating teams.  The Bulls were 4th in the league at offensive rebounding and while the turnover rate was below average, it was enough to give them a lot of shots at the basket.  Despite a mediocre TS team, they were able to squeeze some extra juice out of their possessions.  What is interesting this year is the turnaround their offense HAS made – and it gives some hope for them advancing further in the playoffs.  The Bulls simply put, are making more shots.  Replacing Keith Bogans’ corpse with Richard Hamilton’s corpse has helped.  Also, a shocking improvement (probably unsustainable) by CJ Watson has upped the ante too – along with Derrick Rose upping his own FG%.  The team is just shooting better, their 3 point percentage has also gone up to 7th in the league – and while they get to the line less, it is by no means a huge drop off.  The TS side of the formula has gone up – while the already excellent shot generation is even better.  The Bulls are tops in the league in offensive rebounding, and they take care of the ball much better this season … all this leads to the 2nd best shot generating team in basketball.  So the Bulls are getting more shots up, and making more shots – this bodes well.
  2. The Suns … 20th in offense, it’s inconceivable.  Let’s move on.
  3. The 6th ranked Hawks did not have a particularly good week – and they are showing some possible regression to the mean here.  Al Horford is a really good player, and it is hard to imagine them being able to truck on without him so fearlessly.  But this is a good team, and that’s still 16 games they don’t have to win again.  The pieces are there to make the playoffs and possibly win a round considering the non-Miami and Chicago flotsam in the conference.  What is remarkable is the Hawks have been a legitimately good team this year with virtually no turnover from last year – when they were a searingly mediocre one.  Obviously the first real change is in personnel where Jeff Teague has showed he can be a legitimately decent NBA point guard.  If you saw him at Wake Forest, the elite level athletic ability has not abated.  He has been very strong defensively and has run a solid offense – not the elite level they were in 2010 on that end of the floor, but a more than estimable 11th.  However, their big leap has been defensively.  A year ago, this was an area of mediocrity, while now it is a strength.  Part of it is having Teague to check point guards.  Part of it is having an elite defender like Kirk Hinrich to be able to match up with a variety of alignments.  Part of it is Marvin Williams settling into becoming a good rotation player, and Josh Smith limiting his mental vacations.  But whatever the cause, the same roster which only was 11th in TS allowed due to its ability to resist committing fouls and defend the three, the roster which was near the bottom of the league in shot prevention – is in the top ten in both.  The Hawks have defended two point shots better this year while still fouling very little.  Moreover, they have risen from 29th in forcing turnovers a year ago to a solid 14th.  If the Hawks continue to defend this well – and really Josh Smith has to be the pillar here – they will not go away.
  4. The Clippers acquisition of Kenyon Martin is a quiet gem of a move.  The team clearly has a giant pile of bupkus behind Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan.  Everybody knows that.  But what everybody might not know is that the front court has also been quietly atrocious defensively.  Griffin has not shown an ability to be a high effort defender, and Jordan for his shot blocking clearly has not learned any of the Tim Duncan calculus on when is a good time to take a chance.  What is interesting is that despite an elite defensive backcourt – the Clippers are a pretty bad defensive team, and bad in a surprisingly across the board way.  They have issues defending the two, the three (28th), they foul too much (28th) and they aren’t especially distinguished at recovering misses when they DO happen (19th) or forcing turnovers (19th).  The offense has had to carry them and largely it has.  Martin, who has been an elite defensive big his whole life HAS to be able to help this somewhat.  Of course, part of defense is scheme and coaching and scouting, and this is still the cheap-ass CLIPPERS we are talking about.  If you think Vinnie Del Negro is an incompetent coach, the defensive level here might be something your lawyer might use in a trial.
by

Los Angeles

Sheer curiosity led me to Los Angeles, the 1980 debut of X – I had heard John Doe do a relatively genial interview on The Adam Carolla Show – and in an interesting coincidence, in front of me on the telly as I am tying this is another episode of Bravo’s Work of Art: The Next Great Artist.  Of course this show takes the ever-durable Top Chef formula, and attaches it to aspiring artists, as the host and critics go out and offer apparently erudite (I am a luddite – how can I contradict them?) critiques of these people’s pieces.  It is funny and intriguing and whatnot – as these sorts of shows are – but it is funny as hell that this format could choose “The Next Great Artist”, especially thinking about what total basket cases some of the true greats actually were.  Of course, these artists on this show are emotional, dramatic and cry a lot (hey, it’s reality TV!) – but it is hard not to think that they are dramatic the way that cops nowadays studied cop movies to be cop, that somehow they have internalized that this is how artistes roll.  The show produces people with talent, but the work – and for that matter, the artists themselves- don’t exactly seem to be sweatin the auteur theory.  I guess it was stuff like this that punk was meant to repudiate.

Now, I am no expert on punk.  I know the same bands you do.  We have your Clash, your Sex Pistols, your Ramones.  I’ve heard “Blitzkrieg Bop”, but then, who hasn’t? **  But a real unvarnished punk record – something touching the notion of “work of art” in that sort of non-Bravo way – that is new.  So how does a true hallmark of the genre – but one by a band that has largely disappeared from a lot of radar screens – sound fresh a scant 31 years later?

** True Story:  I knew The Ramones knew “Blitzkrieg Bop”, and I knew the SONG which has that title.  However, I did not know that the song was THAT song.  Ever sit around and have someone point out something that apparently everybody but you knew?  Like this time, my wife was telling me, ahead of going to see them at the concert, that she was telling her co-worker how she appreciated the pun in the name Fitz and the Tantrums.  I sat there blank faced as she went on totally correctly presuming that I would have picked it up.  Except that I didn’t, because I am a retard. **

Los Angeles, it must be said – oozes commitment.  Switching in my IPod between this and something that has seen the board room like a Wiz Khalifa, that sort of je ne sais quoi is evident.  X leans into the performance in a way that you see rarely in arts these days – maybe some of the seasons of Def Comedy Jam possibly.  For instance, consider the opening song “The Phone’s Off the Hook – But You’re Not”.  We get the gnashing of the guitars, and the voice of Exene, the female lead vocalist.  The voice is not polished – this is not a vocal style you are going to be inviting to Broadway – but she is belting it out with the same sort of passion.  That passion is evident, and it shows in the final product, in a way that a more produced work might have obfuscated.  The dish here is baked with love.

At the same time, sitting here and complimenting the commitment and the passion evident in the music – the love – shortchanges that skill here.  Yeah, the musicianship and vocals are not the REASON to listen to it, and the production is raw and, well, punkish – but there is some finesse going on here too.  In particular, the second track, “Johny Hit and Run Pauline” has a lovely riff which almost hints at rockabilly stuff of today.  The hook is legitimately fun – evident of a pop sensibility that belies how unfiltered it is.  There is skill here.  The skill is further evident in the phenomenal finish to the album, with “Sex and Dying in High Society:, “The Unheard Music” and the cheeky “The World’s a Mess: In My Kiss”.  Especially with the latter track, we are getting riffs and hooks that are really catchy and show a knowledge of what works musically in songs.  The finesse – even borrowing Ray Manzarek for organ at times – is evident, and Exene’s voice really works.  It’s like a rawer, rougher – Beach Boys Goes Punk.  I did not expect to enjoy this album really – or to even understand it – but I must say, it’s worth it, and a better theme music for LA than that crap Randy Newman wrote.

by

King’s Ransom

Peter Berg’s King’s Ransom made sense as the first of the ESPN 30 for 30 documentaries – an accomplished filmmaker examining one of the era’s defining stories.  It is actually amazing to think that it has been twenty years since Wayne Gretzky got dealt.  It is even more amazing to ponder that he could have been.  How can the Bulls deal Michael Jordan – and not just Michael Jordan, but the Jordan AFTER winning the titles?  THAT was the magnitude of Edmonton dealing Wayne Gretzky.  That he was traded to Los Angeles added a spin – Gretzky as a true hockey ambassador, while Edmonton had to lose their boy, to a warm weather team!

Berg’s film spends equal time discussing the machinations that got the trade to happen – as well as examining the impact in California, turning the Kings from a local afterthought into THE glam entry in the NHL map.  But we start at the beginning – the idea of Gretzky and the Oilers changing how hockey was conceived.  Their 198x average of 5.9 goals per game is unfathomable.  Wayne Gretzky had seasons of 217 points, 92 goals … 92 goals is nearly twice what the elite guys score now.  The Oilers were a high flying act, but they won 5 titles – the substance was there with the sizzle.

Edmonton is also a small city.  Edmonton is a very small market.  At some point, Gretzky wanted to make a bit more money while Edmonton’s ownership became cash strapped.  He became more valuable as a trade asset to their franchise than as a player.  As such – what we get is them finding a deal for Gretzky and asking him to help.  Berg’s film is very strong here, assembling the documentary footage, showing what a phenomenon Gretzky was.  We see what a state event his marriage was (to some chick from the Police Academy movies), and how big a deal he was.  When Gretzky wipes tears away when announcing his move – the tears were real.

However, the hole in Berg’s movie is Gretzky himself.  I am not sure why Gretzky agreed to the deal.  He wipes the tears away.  In fact, he has chances to reverse things and stay with Edmonton once the trade rumors start.  However, he accedes.  Why did he do it?  In a lot of ways, Gretzky’s view of things is the angle that is the most fascinating – but Berg cannot really unpack that.  This is compounded by the fact that Berg and Gretzky are friends, and Berg interviews Gretzky on camera.  Alas, we just get some vague answers from Gretzky.  It does not prevent the story from being good documentary, but it prevents the film from rising up further.