Tag Archives: Mavericks

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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #10 – Final Report and Playoff Preview

First as you have probably seen from the last couple of entries, people still have Cystic Fibrosis – blah blah blah – click here to help …

FINALLY.  The best of the playoff seasons is upon us.  Of course this was after a truly execrable last couple of weeks of the season where teams were playing scrubs shamelessly while still charging full prices.  The Tuesday Celtics-Heat game was a particular atrocity.  So the rankings could be skewed a tiny bit.  But whatever, the playoffs are here and looks at the series are coming up … how have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (2) Bulls (50-16)
  2. (4) Spurs (50-16)
  3. (1) Thunder (47-19)
  4. (3) Heat (46-20)
  5. (5) Sixers (35-31)
  6. (10) Nugggets (38-28)
  7. (6) Celtics (39-27)
  8. (8) Hawks (40-26)
  9. (7) Grizzlies (41-25)
  10. (15) Clippers (40-26)
  11. (13) Mavericks (36-30)
  12. (9) Lakers (41-25)
  13. (14) Knicks (36-30)
  14. (16) Pacers (42-24)
  15. (11) Magic (37-29)
  16. (12) Rockets (34-32)
  17. (18) Suns (33-33)
  18. (20) Jazz (36-30)
  19. (19) Bucks (31-35)
  20. (17) Blazers (28-38)
  21. (21) Timberwolves (26-40)
  22. (22) Warriors (23-43)
  23. (24) Hornets (21-45)
  24. (23) Raptors (23-43)
  25. (25) Kings (22-44)
  26. (29) Wizards (20-46)
  27. (27) Pistons (25-42)
  28. (28) Nets (22-44)
  29. (26) Wizards (21-45)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-59)

It’s the playoffs!  So – quick looks at your first round series are in order:

  • (E1) Bulls v (E8) Sixers – This is #1 vs #5.  What a matchup!  However, the Sixers have really stumbled down the stretch, but the metrics have been strong as the Sixers blowouts early still have resonance.  The Bulls with Derrick Rose’s dicey injury situation could be great – but they could be tricky.  Defense will be the order of the day (#2 v #3) and neither team is great from outside.  I can’t imagine the Bulls losing this but the Sixers match up well with them, better than they do with the Heat.  Bulls in 7
  • (E4) Celtics v (E5) Hawks – #7 vs #8.  Interestingly here the lower seed has home court.  The Celtics have been very strong down the stretch.  But so have the Hawks, both in the Top 6 since the trade deadline.  The Celtics have serious issues with rebounding and size, but the Hawks are 26th in offensive rebounding, so it is hard to read that as a huge edge.  The games have all been close in their head to head.  Really more of a coin flip than the experts purport.  Hawks in 7
  • (E2) Heat v (E7) Knicks – #4 vs #13 Fun series with two defensively adept teams.  Anthony and LeBron will be a great matchup and the Novak/Smith bench for the Knicks could explode.  But it is hard to envision the Knicks winning in Miami.  This is a fun series but Heat in 6
  • (E3) Pacers v (E6) Magic – The Pacers have the 5th best record in the league but merely #14 in rankings.  This describes the Pacers in general – a nice team, lot of good players, but is this the juice to win a playoff series?  The Magic will be motivated with no Dwight Howard and “nobody believing in them”. Did the Pacers more competitive than it seemed result vs Chicago last year inform them or will the Magic’s winning experience do it?  Without Glen Davis, the Magic just don’t have enough players now – good or otherwise.  Pacers in 5
  • (W1) Spurs v (W8) Jazz – Spurs can flat out score, but the Jazz can attack with size.  Will the Spurs lose in round 1 again?  Frankly I’d have more faith in the Jazz if their defense was not so mediocre.  Against the buzz saw offense of San Antonio it is tough sledding.  Spurs in 5
  • (W4) Grizzlies v (W5) Clippers – Grizzlies are a sexy pick to upset the apple cart.  However this is not last year’s Zach Randolph.  Meanwhile the Clippers just have more better players and one of the game’s best all around players and leaders.  Look how the Hornets stole 2 games against the Lakers with Chris Paul and nobody – he is just that good.  In the playoffs, the stars play more.  Lob City is not done yet.  Clippers in 6
  • (W2) Thunder v (W7) Mavericks – Hard series to peg.  On paper, Thunder should rip through this.  In actuality, Dallas can throw a lot of junk D at them and make the Thunder really work for it.  But it won’t be enough.  Thunder in 7
  • (W3) Lakers v (W6) Nuggets – Denver has depth.  The Lakers don’t.  Denver has speed, and the Lakers have real issues with that.  But the Lakers have all the really good players here and their size and ability to dictate in the half court.  I hope Denver can make this fun.  I think the Lakers grind it out enough.  Lakers in 6
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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #5

With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (1) Bulls (23-7)
  2. (3) Heat (22-7)
  3. (2) Sixers (20-9)
  4. (4) Thunder (21-6)
  5. (8) Spurs (19-9)
  6. (6) Hawks (18-10)
  7. (5) Blazers (15-13)
  8. (7) Nuggets (16-12)
  9. (13) Mavericks (18-11)
  10. (9) Lakers (16-12)
  11. (11) Clippers (17-9)
  12. (10) Celtics (15-12)
  13. (14) Rockets (16-12)
  14. (12) Pacers (17-10)
  15. (17) Magic (18-11)
  16. (15) Grizzlies (14-14)
  17. (16) Timberwolves (13-16)
  18. (18) Jazz (14-13)
  19. (21) Warriors (11-14)
  20. (19) Bucks (12-16)
  21. (22) Knicks (13-15)
  22. (20) Suns (12-16)
  23. (24) Cavaliers (10-16)
  24. (23) Hornets (5-23)
  25. (25) Raptors (9-20)
  26. (26) Kings (10-17)
  27. (28) Wizards (6-22)
  28. (27) Nets (8-21)
  29. (29) Pistons (8-21)
  30. (30) Bobcats (3-25)

Some notes:

  1. We start with a trip to Oakland and the league’s most Quixotic fans – Warriors fans.  For anybody who watched their shocking upset of the Mavericks in 2007, the ability of the fans to lift a team is palpable there – it sounded like the old Chicago Stadium, and that’s saying something.  Alas, that upset has been the extent of the highlights on the court.  Indeed the last few years we have had bad teams, but entertaining ones that could light up the scoreboard.  With Mark Jackson taking over as coach, there was a commitment to a more defense, championship timber club.  What is interesting though is that the defensive culture in Golden State is still as lax as ever – while the offense is actually much better.  The numbers are a bit muted as these Warriors are middle of the road in terms of pace – but this is the most efficient offense (relative to the league) Golden State has had recently.  What is particularly interesting comparing side by side is how little things have changed.  They still shoot the three both very well and very frequently.  They still don’t get to the line hardly at all – and they are a pretty shaky rebounding team (and indeed substantially worse offensively).  However – they take care of the ball a bit better and are shooting their 2-pointers a lot better, enough to be 4th in the league in FG%.  This is also though a harbinger of rough times maybe – 2 pt FG% is pretty fickle, and one thinks there might be some regression coming.  Scanning the personnel, it is not like there is a huge change in the shape of the offense.  The defense as mentioned before is as bad as ever – and they are still a horrendous defensive rebounding side, and are near the bottom in sending opponents to the line.  Jackson has the team gambling less defensively – but it has not shown in the final results.  The Warriors have a ways to go for the positive changes in ownership to reflect in the product.
  2. Checking in at 18-11, and starting to move up the ladder are the Magic.  Of course 2 weeks ago, we left them with a disastrous week, featuring a 56 point outing at Boston and blown 27 point lead hosting Boston (yay Boston).  Since then though the Magic have perked up.  Really, we always hear about the psychodrama surrounding Dwight Howard – but possibly he has found some contentment (or resignation) in the current situation.  Despite the Magic’s offensive issues a couple of weeks back, where they had been struggling was on the defensive end of the floor.  Last year the Magic were 3rd in the league defensively despite having very little defensive muscle besides Howard.  Earlier in the year the team had been scuffling, but we see them up to 12th now.  The Magic in the past have focused on defending without fouling (not gambling) and superior rebounding.  This year, the rebounding has been there but the attention to detail in defense has not – but it has improved.  Magic up to a reasonable 11th in FG%, and so up their fortunes have come with it.
  3. This week’s edition would be incomplete without noting the jump the Knicks have made.  I have no real metric argument here, just a chance to rant a bit on Jeremy Lin.  The Knicks themselves are still a shaky offensive team with a surprisingly good defense considering D’Antoni’s reputation (2nd in the league in forced turnovers, 7th in defensive rebounding – they just don’t give up a ton of looks at the basket which makes up for their meh FG%).  But Lin of course has had the best first 4 starts in league history.  You have to be realistic of course – he is not this good, very few players are.  That said, he is 6’3″ 200 lbs – basically Chauncey Billups’ size.  He has a lot of steals, rebounds, gets to the line a lot.  Unlike most small school kids, he is an elite athlete.  He needs to shoot better, but that you can improve.  Lin is a rotation caliber PG right now, and the Knicks have none of those – and there is no reason he cannot be a solid starter for a long time.
  4. The big move up this week has been Dallas.  At 18-11, it is amazing to see Rick Carlisle cobble together this start despite the issues they had with conditioning and injuries.  More amazing is how despite losing Tyson Chandler, the Mavericks have remade themselves into a defensive juggernaut.  They are 18-11 against a solid schedule despite being 20th in offense (still not getting to the line, still not getting second shots, but now missing the shots they DO take).  Instead the historically underwhelming (or undervalued) Mavs D is carrying them this year.  Yeah Odom has sucked on offense, but he is a very useful defender.  So is Vince Carter despite his reputation, and Brendan Haywood has successfully impersonated a competent C this year.  All that adds up to a team that is 3rd in FG defense and 5th in forcing turnovers.  The Mavs are top 10 in TS% and shot prevention – and that has allowed them to survive themselves.  Given the reputations and past performances of their top guys on offense – this is nothing but good news for the long term.
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On Dirk Nowitzki (Game 1, 2011 West Finals)

Well, this came out of nowhere.  Two teams that engaged in solid defense down the stretch met, and the result was a wild 121-112 back to the 80s shootout.  The numbers coming out of this were incredible.  Kevin Durant scored 40 points on 18 shots, had a TS% for the game of 75.9% and was not even the sickest performance on the court.  That of course was Dirk Nowitzki’s historic 93.9% TS day scoring 48 points on 15 shots.  (24-24 from the line)  There have been a lot of ways to put the game in perspective.  Indeed, the TS% is one way.  Another one I liked was the idea of points per miss.  However, in the history of brutal individual efficiency, what if we add in turnovers to Dirk’s performance.  What this means is that Dirk, could have (theoretically) scored 58 points between the turnovers, and shot attempts.  He got 48 of them, for an 82.8%.  For some perspective Kevin Durant with his 18-19 FT, 18 FGA, and 3 turnovers scored 40 out of 61 points, or 65.6%.  Indeed, below are the percentage of possible points scored for the top 10 scorers in the league this season, and a few other interesting names sprinkled in.

  1. Kevin Durant: 2161 points, 1538 FGA, 675 FTA, 218 TO = 4187 possible points = 51.6%
  2. LeBron James: 2111 out of 4201 = 50.2%
  3. Carmelo Anthony: 1940 of 4023 = 49.0%
  4. Dwayne Wade: 1941 of 3894 = 49.8%
  5. Kobe Bryant: 2078 of 4347 = 47.8%
  6. Amare Stoudemire: 1971 of 4061 = 48.5%
  7. Derrick Rose: 2026 of 4305 = 47.1%
  8. Monta Ellis: 1929 of 4157 = 46.4%
  9. Kevin Martin: 1876 of 3571 = 52.5%
  10. Dirk Nowitzki: 1681 of 3075 = 54.7%

Really Nowtizki is well clear of the field in the ability to not waste chances to score.  Indeed scoping random names in the Top 20 you see Paul Pierce at 53.3% and see just how rare an air he is.  Dirk does not create for his teammates by passing them the ball per se, but he does it by not hogging scoring chances.  It is a talent that exists in negative space, so it’s not fun or sexy – the ability to not do something.  But it is considerable and last night it was on display for the nation.

But, as for the game in total – is there anything of consequence which can be gleaned?  Unlike Game 1 in the East, a lot here did not go to script.  Neither defense will be very proud of its performance.  Both of these teams have shown offensive chops, but in a reasonably paced game (only 93 possessions, around league regular season average), both teams had sterling PPPs. (to put it another way, no team this season average 1.1 points per possession, both teams flew past 1.2 last night).  Oklahoma City gets to the line more than anybody, and sure enough they got 43 free throw attempts in the 93 possessions, which obliterates their season average, while Dallas got to the line a ton 36 times compared to their more piddly .241 per possession (basically they got to the line 14 more times than normal in this game).  Both teams shot well and made their threes – really neither Oklahoma City’s physicality nor Dallas’ zones made any real impression on the other’s offense.

Will this continue?  Oklahoma City we know will keep drawing fouls at this rate, but can Dallas keep it up?  Obviously, officials have something to do with it, but the Thunder’s inability to keep Dallas off the line was huge.  Of course nobody expects Dirk to shoot like this, but the Mavericks are a jump shooting team – it is the non-jump shots that the Thunder need to be worried about.  Dallas got the win, but it is hard to envision them creating contact at yesterday’s rate – even if Dirk can make those midrange jumpers til the cows come home.

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2011 NBA Western Conference Finals Preview

Earlier we broke down the Eastern Conference Finals, so now, the West.  This matchup is obviously a very stark case of old vs young, the Thunder with no starters over 26 against the Mavericks with no starter younger than 28.  A young athletic team which fundamentally changed after the deadline vs an old, wily zone playing team which has been relatively stable all year.  So, what do we think of it?  As always, cited rankings are from our power rankings.

Western Conference Finals: Dallas Mavericks (7th overall, 6th since March 1) vs Oklahoma City Thunder (9th overall, 3rd since March 1)

As mentioned previously, of the final four teams, Oklahoma City is the team who fundamentally changed the most from before to after Match 1.  This is because of the trade which brought in valuable big man depth in Kendrick Perkins and Nazr Mohammed.  Moreover the trade moved Jeff Green and allowed Serge Ibaka to play more and gave James Harden an increased role, which as can be gleaned from his late season split stats, he has seriously responded to.  For OKC, the present does not resemble the resent past.

Mavericks offense vs Thunder defense: Earlier in the year, this would have been a bit of a mismatch.  Before the deadline, the Thunder were 16st in defense, showing both mediocrity in defending shots (16th in TS% defense) and preventing chances (18th).  However, with the increased roles for Harden, Ibaka as well as the new guys, the defense has really stepped up to 5th overall since March 1.  Almost all of the improvement lies in improving shot defense with the TS% leaping up from 16th to 5th.  This is just a matter of defending two pointers better and three pointers better.  Prior to the trade which changed so much, the Thunder were allowing teams to shoot 47% from the floor, 21st in the league.  Since the deal, that is down to a stingy 43.8%.  Similarly, a team which allowed teams to shoot nearly 37% from three point land clamped down on that end as well.  They already were a good team at preventing three point attempts, so this further drove things down.  The Thunder with this added emphasis on defense has also fouled more as part of the physicality.  The ballhawking has improved, but the defensive rebounding is 18th and has not been improved by the trade.

Dallas has Dirk Nowitzki, and we know what a metronome of consistency he is.  The Mavericks have been consistent most of the season, their 8th place finish in offense is pretty indicative of the club they are.  Sure they lost Caron Butler early in the season, but aside from a blip when Dirk was out, they have been the team they always are.  The Mavericks, above all, are a jump shooting team.  Dirk is one of the great jump shooters who ever lived, and Jason Terry is an adept jump shooter.  They take a lot of 3s, (5th in the league in frequency) and shoot it reasonably well (indeed, it’s the only shot Jason Kidd takes these days).  They are a jump shooting team, so they do not get to the line much at all (27th).  Thus their TS% lies in their ability to shoot – if you leave them open as the Lakers did again and again, they will make them.  The nice thing for Oklahoma is that they are old, and old teams want to get back on defense, so the Mavericks are 24th in offensive rebounding.  Combine that with pedestrian turnover numbers and Dallas is very poor at generating looks.  The current version of the Thunder is no great shakes at shot prevention, but it might not matter the way Dallas plays.

Guarding Nowitzki is going to be a chore for the Thunder – Ibaka seems like the best athletic match, but he might be too young for Nowitzki’s moves.  However, the Thunder with their athleticism outside could give the Mavericks a lot of trouble with ball pressure.  If they can control the glass, they could make some hay.  What will be tricky for Oklahoma City is going from Memphis, a team who takes fewer 3s than anyone to the comparative “let if fly” mentality of the Mavericks.  The Thunder should be able to get a lot of turnovers off this team, and it might offset Dirk’s brilliance.  Edge: Thunder

Thunder offense vs Mavericks defense:  The Thunder took off offensively as the season progressed finishing 2nd in offense after March 1.  They were 2nd in TS% combining a fairly sound shooting percentage with an amazing ability to draw fouls.  The Thunder down the stretch were the 2nd most frequent FT takers in the league and they were the most frequent FT takers overall.  Russell Westbrook with his speed and willingness to throw his body into the pile and Kevin Durant with his rip move augment their skill with getting to the line a lot.  The Thunder seem punchless offensively, but as James Harden has grown as a floor spacer, the three point shooting is decent and their foul drawing ability helps minimize empty trips down the floor.  Befitting a younger team, they also led the league in recovering misses, so they generate extra chances when they do miss.  In a way the Thunder employ a Sherman tank collision oriented approach.  With the Mavericks little guards, the Thunder will have a lot of chances to attack.

The Mavericks use wile more than physicality.  Dallas will try to cover for its guards by playing a ton of zone, more zone than any team in the league, and it could frustrate a young team.  The zones keep the game outside.  Dallas did a good job forcing tough 2 point shots.  Their zone covered the 3 point line well, allowing the 6th fewest 3PA per attempt in the league, while also being 4th in fewest FTs against.  The Mavericks are a low contact outfit that funnels stuff towards Tyson Chandler and his tremendous shot erasing ability at the back.  Like a wily older zone team, the Mavericks do not force a ton of turnovers with this conservative approach, and they rebound misses solidly – though I imagine their zones make it hard sometimes hence the 12th place rank.  Their shot prevention is not great (18th) but their TS% defense is a solid 8th.

Can the Thunder get inside Mavericks zones and let their athleticism take over.  It could be a free throw contest or volleyball game at the net if the Mavericks are not careful.  On the other hand the Mavericks are so experienced and their zones so unlike what the Thunder have encountered over two rounds, it might take a while for the kids to adjust.  For the short term at least, the edge goes to the Mavericks but just slightly.

Two Keys to the Series

  1. For the Mavericks, can the zone keep the athletes of the Thunder from getting in?  The Thunder draw a ton of fouls, but the Mavs don’t commit many.  The Thunder go to the rack a lot and crash the boards, the Mavericks zone and junk defenses keep teams puzzled about how to enter.  Over seven games, can a young team crack the puzzle?  Dallas will have to limit the damage on the offensive boards in order to make the Thunder an outside team, something they do less effectively.
  2. For the Thunder, can they cover the threes and all the jump shooters.  In a way Dallas is frustrating in that they lean on the shots that a defense likes to give up.  Memphis pounded it inside, Dallas resolutely will not.  Can the Thunder make this switch effectively while not getting lazy about affairs around their basket?

Like the Eastern finals, this is a razor close series – all the cliches are there.  Youth, experience, guile, physical skill.  Is it Oklahoma City’s time?  I’m going to say yes.  Thunder in 6

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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 5

Another week, and the league gets a little more defined.  The methodology is here.  The Hornets are still upsetting the apple cart, though it seems they have pleateaued a touch.  But the Southwest Division HAS produced some legitimate surprising excitement.  I’d mention the Heat, but then I’d have to kill myself.

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Celtics 13 4 102.799 (7) 93.746 (1) 1.853 1.672 (18) 12.577
2 Mavericks 13 4 102.324 (9) 95.986 (7) 1.441 3.548 (1) 11.326
3 Spurs 15 2 105.108 (3) 97.091 (9) 1.647 1.587 (20) 11.251
4 Heat 10 8 102.791 (8) 96.793 (8) 1.361 3.483 (2) 10.842
5 Magic 13 4 101.937 (11) 94.575 (2) 1.235 1.192 (25) 9.79
6 Lakers 13 5 106.273 (1) 98.599 (12) 1.556 -0.182 (28) 9.048
7 Hornets 12 5 99.525 (15) 94.748 (4) 1.853 2.274 (11) 8.904
8 Bulls 9 6 99.304 (16) 95.941 (6) 2.1 2.658 (7) 8.121
9 Jazz 14 5 101.96 (10) 97.748 (10) 1.658 1.769 (16) 7.638
10 Nuggets 10 6 103.251 (4) 100.875 (17) 1.75 2.97 (4) 7.097
11 Pacers 9 7 98.362 (21) 95.567 (5) 1.531 1.807 (15) 6.133
12 Hawks 11 7 103.018 (5) 99.396 (13) 1.75 0.261 (27) 5.634
13 Thunder 12 6 101.824 (12) 101.596 (19) 1.556 2.78 (6) 4.563
14 Bobcats 6 11 99.989 (14) 99.436 (14) 1.853 1.606 (19) 4.012
15 Bucks 6 11 93.501 (30) 94.581 (3) 1.853 2.58 (8) 3.353
16 Suns 8 9 105.405 (2) 107.865 (30) 2.059 3.417 (3) 3.015
17 Sixers 5 13 97.257 (24) 97.829 (11) 1.944 1.193 (24) 2.566
18 Knicks 10 9 103.01 (6) 102.346 (21) 2.026 -0.342 (29) 2.348
19 Blazers 8 9 99.268 (17) 100.494 (16) 2.059 1.49 (22) 2.324
20 Grizzlies 8 10 97.785 (22) 99.994 (15) 1.556 1.92 (14) 1.267
21 Raptors 6 11 98.481 (20) 101.912 (20) 1.853 2.786 (5) 1.208
22 Rockets 5 12 100.26 (13) 103.367 (26) 2.059 1.969 (13) 0.92
23 Nets 6 12 98.832 (19) 103.026 (24) 1.944 1.578 (21) -0.671
24 Warriors 8 10 99.155 (18) 103.123 (25) 1.944 0.783 (26) -1.241
25 Pistons 6 12 97.648 (23) 102.61 (23) 1.944 1.363 (23) -1.654
26 Cavaliers 7 10 94.791 (28) 101.166 (18) 1.647 2.404 (10) -2.323
27 Wizards 5 11 96.102 (26) 103.395 (27) 1.75 2.567 (9) -2.976
28 Timberwolves 4 13 94.653 (29) 103.452 (28) 1.853 1.691 (17) -5.255
29 Kings 4 12 95.775 (27) 102.42 (22) 1.313 -0.803 (30) -6.136
30 Clippers 3 15 96.854 (25) 106.808 (29) 1.556 2.047 (12) -6.35

What to make of this?

  • The Mavericks surge to #2, mostly due to the strength of schedule.  As we have said before, this is fairly unsustainable.  Indeed if you look at the final 2009 numbers, the Rockets had the toughest schedule at 2.144 points, while the Knicks brought up the rear at 1.420.  A 0.7 point spread is microscopic.  This makes sense given that all the teams have 58 of their 82 games in common.  That said, Tyson Chandler’s inclusion in the lineup has been a godsend to their defense, boosting it from 12th a year ago to 7th now.  The improvement in defense is almost entirely attributable to a rise from 10th to 2nd in True Shooting defense – a product of a great defensive center being healthy again.
  • The interesting dropoff team so far has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Despite a strong 12-7 record, they are 13th here, down from last year’s 6th.  The offense, despite Kevin Durant, has never been a strength – 11th a year ago, 12th now.  But what has slipped is the defense, down to a paltry 19th from last year’s very strong 7th.  What has gone wrong?  Well, a year ago, the Thunder were 6th in true shooting defense and 7th in forcing turnovers.  The true shooting defense was both because of good field goal defense and being one of the best teams in the league at not sending their opponents to the line.  This year, the defense has been a disaster across the board.  22nd in FG%, 3rd worst at committing fouls, 21st in forcing turnovers.  All of that has contributed.  Considering how little personnel turnover there has been – this has to be laid at the feet of the players.  Scott Brooks’ schemes have not changed, but the attention to detail has.  The players might be thinking they are being clutch (with their wins) but they have done well in close games (6-1 with margins less than 5 pts), so well as to be unsustainable.  They have to fix the leaks in their defense, or else the “it boy” dreams of the preseason mags will just be a case of prognosticators getting it wrong again.
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2011 NBA Preview – The Dirty Dozen

Six hours and 10 minutes to go before the store opens for the 2011 season.  12 teams left to countdown.  At this point, we are left with all teams that have a more than theoretical chance to win it all, although certainly a lot has to go right for some of the entries.  The flotsam, is passed:

12. Houston Rockets (16th overall in 2010, 19th offense, 17th defense)

Yao is back, albeit in a highly controlled role.  Kevin Martin, almost as brittle, gives them the best shooting guard they’ve had since Tracy McGrady was still alive.  Last year Rick Adelman used smoke and mirrors to keep them in the playoffs.  Luis Scola is a very good complimentary player – they have a very deep lineup.  Really, this is a team that could make a huge run, if Yao can hold up and if he can become a serious contributor late in the season.  Big ifs, so I will leave them here out of respect for Adelman and the talent Darryl Morey has assembled.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Yao and Kevin Martin give them the dynamic duo – and a healthy dynamic duo at that.

11. Milwaukee Bucks (15th overall in 2010, 23rd offense, 3rd defense)

They won last year with Brandon Jennings youth, Andrew Bogut making a mini-Leap, and the 3rd best defense in the league.  In particular, they forced turnovers at a high rate while being the best team in the league at not committing fouls.  This elevated them from their good but not awesome first shot defense into elite territory.  But their 23rd ranked offense needs to improve.  Enter Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette, offensively gifted forwards.  Chris Douglas-Roberts gives some wing options to that end.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Brandon Jennings is as good as his first season hinted, Andrew Bogut is healthy, their defense stays strong while Maggette, one of the game’s most efficient scorers, can bring their offense up.

10. Chicago Bulls (18th overall in 2010, 28th offense, 11th defense)

He will not be healthy to start the season, but Carlos Boozer portends to give the Bulls the low post scorer they have yearned for.  With him and Joakim Noah, they now have a frontcourt to compete with the East’s best.  Derrick Rose is growing, and his work for Team USA portended well.  This was a bad offensive team, particularly deficient at just shooting the ball.  Carlos Boozer will help this along – even if the Bulls were aiming for a bigger prize.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Their defense is as solid as it was by the end of last year, Derrick Rose makes the leap and Carlos Boozer provides that post presence they need to win playoff games.

9. Dallas Mavericks (12th overall in 2010, 10th offense, 12th defense)

It feels like we could write the same blurb about this team for the last 5 years.  Dirk is a GREAT player, and his cast is solid but old.  They are coached well largely, though it has not always manifested in the playoffs.  It feels like this lineup has a finite amount of time together.  All of these sentences applied in 2007, 2008 and apply today.  Rodrique Beaubois could be a terrific spark as a combo guard, and Tyson Chandler is a terrific pickup as a defensive big and usable contract.  But really where is the upside here?

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Dirk is 2006-2007 Dirk, Caron Butler is 2008 Caron Butler and Jason Kidd in 2003 Jason Kidd.  Honestly this seems like a stuck outfit.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder (6th overall in 2010, 11th offense, 7th defense)

What???  America’s sweethearts are all the way down here?  Let’s be real.  They were abnormally healthy a year ago.  They play in a brutal division.  The question is whether they make the elite leap now or next year.  Honestly, this is guessing.  Durant is going to be an MVP favorite as he should be, and Russell Westbrook is fringe all-NBA.  That is real.  They will be better than they were last year, but it might not reflect in the standings.  This is a fascinating division.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Durant and the kiddies are all growns up!

7.  Portland TrailBlazers (11th overall in 2010, 7th offense, 13th defense)

This is a very interesting team.  The Thunder burst into our consciousness last season.  The Blazers, with a similar assemblage of talent and growth curve, suffered a comically rash level of injury yet won 50 games.  They have the sheer amount of size to give the Lakers trouble – the length the Jazz lacked.  However, is the health just a glitch or a real problem?  They spent too much money on Wesley Matthews, although he is a fit for what they want to do.  This might be the season for them to make The Leap.  Andre Miller is a good trade asset, as he and Roy are a poor basketball fit.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Greg Oden gets healthy and develops.  Brandon Roy stays healthy.  The young talent just grows up.

6. Utah Jazz (5th overall in 2010, 8th offense, 10th defense)

The Jazz cannot beat the Lakers.  They were not long enough last year.  They aren’t long enough now.  They lost Boozer, but fleeced Minnesota for Al Jefferson who is a more than capable replacement.  They lost Wesley Matthews and Kyle Korver, but Gordon Hayward might be better than either by the end of the season.  Deron Williams is a great PG and Jerry Sloan is a great coach.  This team cannot beat the Lakers but they can beat anybody else.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: The Lakers suffer a fatal incommunicable illness.

5. San Antonio Spurs (4th overall in 2010, 9th offense, 9th defense)

The Spurs are on the downside.  But Manu Ginobli had a career year of sorts, and Tony Parker is playing for a contract.  Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair give them a real chance to keep Duncan’s minutes even more controlled.  The pieces are there for another big run – though it will take some help.  After all, they finished 4th last year!  The problem though is that their defense has slipped from the elite levels of their title years, and their offense is a little less efficient than it used to be.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Duncan, Ginobli and Parker go in the wayback machine a little bit … and their defense gets back towards the 2007 standard.

4. Miami Heat (13th overall in 2010, 18th offense, 4th defense)

Obviously they will be better – I don’t think we need to go over why.  In fact on the wing they will be magical, and Chris Bosh is an elite big, although not a great strength big.  They have a lot of bigs – but very little quality outside of Bosh, though Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony are good team sorts.  They will have trouble defending elite size, and teams that have that can beat them in a short series.  They might win the regular season derby – but teams that can pound them inside could very well beat them.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They can defend real size.

3. Orlando Magic (1st overall in 2010, 2nd offense, 1st defense)

HERE is real size.  The Magic are a great defensive team.  Their depth is spectacular with a second five (Duhon, Anderson, Bass, Gortat, Williams) that could win 20 game in the NBA.  Their size on the wings can at least present some resistance against the Heat’s wing elegance.  If a team cannot handle Dwight Howard with single coverage, that opens up their 3 point attack and they become very very hard to stop.  But if Howard is defended 1 on 1, look out.  They will be active looking for an impact guy via trade.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Dwight Howard becomes seriously unguardable.

2. Boston Celtics (9th overall in 2010, 12th offense, 6th defense)

The Celtics can guard Howard 1 on 1.  That has driven the Magic crazy matchup-wise.  The Celtics rank was low in 2010, but they took care to avoid injury and sacrified playoff positions.  But their defense is elite, and with Garnett being healthier, and all the size they signed in the offseason the Celtics have the chance to be much more rugged than they were last year.  Rondo made The Leap last year, this team just has to manage minutes and be strong.  They might not beat the Heat or Magic, but there is no reason to start with that assumption.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They win one more game.

Los Angeles Lakers (7th overall in 2010, 13th offense, 5th defense)

The Lakers won the title last year, with so much wrong.  Andrew Bynum was hurt so much (as usual), Derek Fisher was HORRIBLE at the point and Kobe Bryant was ailing.  Like the Celtics, the Lakers bet on health over wins in the second half of the year and it worked.  The West has a lot of good teams, but none remotely as good.  This breaks my heart to type, I cannot emphasize enough.  No team can match up with so many styles, and the length they have up front makes them an elite team.  They are a rugged strength team and it is hard to envision a team overpowering them.  Witness the Celtics’ moves in the offseason – it was clearly with this in mind.



 

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Dare to be Stupid – More NBA Free Agency

The reporting has been a little slow lately.  Maybe it’s the Independence Day holiday – maybe just the nature of the beast and everyone waiting for LeBron.  But a couple more moves:

Atlanta Hawks sign Joe Johnson for 6 years $120 million: I wrote about this already. This is a mind bendingly stupid deal by the Hawks.  It’s not like they sell out the building – the Hawks have always been a tough draw, and Atlanta is probably the worst pro sports market in the United States anyway.  The Hawks are a good team – good enough to make the 2nd round in each of the last two playoffs.  However, they lost 8 straight in that round by double figures.  As constituted, this team cannot make the leap.  But what have they done?  Replaced Mike Woodson with his assistant who might keep their system – which is good but also has bogged down in the playoffs.  Then they re-sign their money man without any sort of hometown discount.  Basically Johnson is back solely for the coin.  And one can easily argue Josh Smith is their best player – and will be in the future.  The Hawks have doomed themselves to a very limited ceiling for the foreseeable future.

New York Knicks sign Amare Stoudemire for 5 years, $100 million: On some basic level the Knicks overpaid for Amare here.  Amare is a poor defender, and showed some low effort in the Lakers series.  He could be taken out of games at times.  But he is a prodigious inside scorer, and is returning to the system where he became a household name.  In addition, the Knicks HAD to land a big fish.  Given how they have sold this strategy to their fans, and given how little hope Knicks fans have felt for years – they NEEDED to get a big catch this offseason.  Stoudemire certainly qualifies, and will probably justify his deal.  There is also some room for the Knicks to go get someone else.  This move does not make the Knicks a title contender – but now they have a chance to put that sort of team out there – whether it be with the rest of this offseason or next year.

Boston Celtics re-sign Paul Pierce for 4 years $60 million: The haggling on the fourth year was about how guaranteed it would be.  The details when they come out will be interesting.  That said, Pierce has gone through a lot.  He survived a stabbing, and never asked to leave Boston.  And while he is not the player he was, his virtues (size and shooting ability) are durable and his secondary skills offer value.  This is an old team – but torching it was not a viable cap option – not with Garnett being unmovable through 2012.  So the Celtics and Pierce got a mutually beneficial agreement, and the Celtics have a chance to do some rebuilding on the fly with Rasheed’s contract hopefully.

Dallas Mavericks re-sign Dirk Nowitzki for 4 years $80 million: Dirk is one of the ten best players in the league, and his biggest skills (shooting, rebounding, being tall) assure he will be a viable player for far beyond this deal.  Mavericks and he also good mutual agreement.  In addition, if Dallas wanted to take a long odds stab at LeBron – they have a lot of enticing pieces to offer.

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2010 NBA Draft: Trades and More

Well, so much for the wisdom of my mock draft notions.  However, the trades continue – and almost all of them were driven by money.  We saw Chicago and Miami seriously clear the deck to possibly add one of the monster free agents.   We also saw a smaller, leaner team like Oklahoma City take advantage of the financial aid.  So let’s go through the trades and where we end up.  We discussed some of them previously, but now for draft night itself.

Chicago Bulls send Kirk Hinrich and the 17th pick (Kevin Serraphin) to the Washington Wizards for a future 2nd round pick: In other words, the Bulls drove Kirk Hinrich to O’Hare in order to get themselves a chance to get 2 of the big kahuna free agents.  Obviously if this nets Lebron and Chris Bosh, this is a major win.  That said, the Wizards did pretty well.  One can quibble on the cash, but the Wizards got a young raw body in Serraphin they could try to develop or stuff overseas – and Hinrich is a very useful 3rd guard to go with Arenas and Wall.  The Wizards might suck next year, but there will be hope and interest.

New Orleans Hornets trade the 11th pick (Cole Aldrich) and Morris Peterson to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 21st pick (Craig Brackins) and the 26th pick (Quincy Pondexter): The Hornets were up against the luxury tax – and these problems endangered the ability to keep the team together, and perhaps made a previously unfathomable Chris Paul trade even theoretically possible.  Fortunately for real NBA fans this might have been averted.  Of course count on the Oklahoma City Thunder and Sam Presti to pounce on the chance to play the draft game.  The Thunder need more bench scoring and more size – Peterson can supply the former.  Cole Aldrich is not a star – but he is one of the surest things in the draft.  He is a rotation player.  The Hornets with Pondexter get an elite athlete and defender, and Craig Brackins has the inside-outside potential to be a good stretch-4 in the league.  Considering they did this deal for financial reasons – they got a solid talent haul.

Oklahoma City Thunder send the 18th pick (Eric Bledsoe) to the Los Angeles Clippers for a lottery protected future #1: Bill Belichick would have wept with joy at this trade.  The Thunder, seeing limited possibilities in this draft, end up spinning Bledsoe to the Clippers for a protected pick.  This keeps them with future draft assets, and if the Clippers make the playoffs it will be as a low seed so what the hell.  For the Clippers, they do get a talented guy who can possibly spell Baron Davis.

Dallas Mavericks trade cash to the Memphis Grizzlies for the 25th pick (Dominique Jones): The Grizzlies had a bunch of picks – they did not want to pay them all, so this made sense – though an international stash might have been better in a stronger international year.  Why the Mavericks moved up to get a guy who replicates what Jason Terry and Rodrique Beaubois do?  Hey, it’s Cuban’s money.

Dallas Mavericks trade the 50th pick (Solomon Alabi) to the Toronto Raptors for a future 2nd round pick and cash: Another roster spot the Mavs did not want to pay.  For the Raptors, who are so size deprived, this was a no brainer.  It’s a shot in the dark – but unlike a first rounder there is no onerous contract to worry about.

Atlanta Hawks trade the 24th pick (Damion James) to the New Jersey Nets for the 27th pick (Jordan Crawford) and the 31st pick (Tibor Pleiss) -  the Hawks spin the 31st pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder for cash: Damion James is a nice player – one of the most NBA ready guys, though his upside is limited.  What is hard to understand is why the Nets dealt a valuable pick (#31) to move up 3 spots in the draft.  The marginal value of the move up is nil.  Jordan Crawford has much more upside than James does.  The Hawks wanted cash more than another player, so of course the Thunder swoop in to clean up the mess and collect another asset to stash overseas.

Minnesota Timberwolves trade the 16th pick (Luke Babbitt) and Ryan Gomes to the Portland TrailBlazers for Martell Webster: This is another curious deal.  Gomes is a useful and only partially guaranteed deal.  Luke Babbitt has as much upside as any wing in the draft.  Martell Webster is a promising young player – but has not really shown that wow.  How this is a fair match I don’t know.  Given that Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard was doing this after being told he would be canned – this is a much better deal than his employers deserve.

Minnesota Timberwolves trade the 23rd pick (Trevor Booker) and the 56th pick (Hamadi Ndiaye) to the Washington Wizards for the 30th pick (Lazar Hayward) and 35th pick (Nemanja Bjeilca): I have no opinion on this.  Booker can play – but I was surprised the Wizards agreed so much.

Indiana Pacers trade the 57th pick (Ryan Reid) and cash to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 51st pick (Magnum Rolle): Rolle is 24, but athletic and tall.  Pacers need that.  I have no idea who Reid is.  

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Overall, the Blazers, Thunder and Celtics (who got Avery Bradley – a Monta Ellis talent – with more defense – and Luke Harangody who profiles as the type of player NBA types undervalue) managed the exercise nicely.  The Timberwolves were full of sound and fury – but not sure where it took them.  And then there are the pants (h/t Esquire):

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The Final Power Rankings and First Round Picks

Process here. Rankings there:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Magic 59 23 104.631 (2) 96.214 (1) 1.75 3.166 (30) 13.333
2 Cavaliers 61 21 104.39 (3) 97.272 (8) 1.75 3.173 (29) 12.041
3 Suns 54 28 107.908 (1) 102.168 (19) 1.75 3.276 (25) 10.766
4 Spurs 50 32 102.717 (9) 97.59 (9) 1.75 3.532 (17) 10.41
5 Jazz 53 29 103.122 (8) 98.527 (10) 1.75 3.586 (13) 9.93
6 Thunder 50 32 101.459 (11) 97.188 (7) 1.75 3.584 (14) 9.604
7 Lakers 57 25 101.152 (13) 97.091 (5) 1.75 3.658 (10) 9.47
8 Hawks 53 29 104.132 (4) 100.085 (15) 1.75 3.381 (23) 9.178
9 Nuggets 53 29 103.777 (6) 100.105 (16) 1.75 3.63 (12) 9.051
10 Celtics 50 32 101.165 (12) 97.178 (6) 1.75 3.258 (27) 8.995
11 Blazers 50 32 103.569 (7) 99.894 (13) 1.75 3.415 (21) 8.84
12 Mavericks 55 27 102.457 (10) 98.973 (12) 1.75 3.472 (20) 8.706
13 Heat 47 35 100.305 (18) 96.849 (4) 1.75 3.219 (28) 8.426
14 Bobcats 44 38 97.408 (24) 96.389 (2) 1.75 3.411 (22) 6.18
15 Bucks 46 36 97.553 (23) 96.462 (3) 1.75 3.258 (26) 6.098
16 Rockets 42 40 100.13 (19) 100.907 (17) 1.75 3.928 (2) 4.901
17 Raptors 40 42 103.869 (5) 104.906 (30) 1.75 3.499 (18) 4.211
18 Bulls 41 41 96.563 (28) 98.573 (11) 1.75 3.568 (15) 3.308
19 Hornets 37 45 100.59 (16) 102.895 (22) 1.75 3.741 (7) 3.187
20 Grizzlies 40 42 100.398 (17) 102.932 (23) 1.75 3.739 (8) 2.955
21 Pacers 32 50 97.062 (26) 99.996 (14) 1.75 3.473 (19) 2.288
22 Warriors 26 56 100.65 (14) 104.321 (28) 1.75 3.897 (3) 1.977
23 Kings 25 57 98.103 (22) 102.032 (18) 1.75 3.868 (4) 1.689
24 Knicks 29 53 100.646 (15) 104.386 (29) 1.75 3.346 (24) 1.355
25 Sixers 27 55 99.066 (20) 103.097 (24) 1.75 3.546 (16) 1.265
26 Wizards 26 56 97.101 (25) 102.302 (20) 1.75 3.633 (11) 0.183
27 Clippers 29 53 96.693 (27) 102.357 (21) 1.75 3.866 (5) -0.048
28 Pistons 27 55 98.198 (21) 104.067 (26) 1.75 3.68 (9) -0.439
29 Timberwolves 15 67 94.652 (29) 104.233 (27) 1.75 4.111 (1) -3.719
30 Nets 12 70 94.115 (30) 103.745 (25) 1.75 3.786 (6) -4.094

A key caveat: With the last month being tanking/amateur hour and good teams being judicious with managing players – I suspect the Lakers and Cavaliers are undervalued. That said, still revealing as we get to the end:

  • The Magic have been the best team the second half of the year.  Took the season for Vince Carter to get integrated, and their defense was lazy earlier in the season.  However, back at #1, just like last year.  Their #2 offense is hard to say has dropped off at all.
  • The Cavaliers got off slow too, but rolled down the stretch save for preserving LeBron a bit.
  • Lakers really staggered to the finish.  They seemed to be shoo-ins for the best record for a while.  They can still right the ship, but with a scant 9 games separating the #1 and $#8 seed in the West who knows?

Now for some quick picks for the first round (power ranking in parens) …

EAST:

Cavaliers (2) vs Bulls (18): Bulls played hard down the stretch, Rose is a terrific PG.  But Cavs defend the position well, and there is LeBron.  Cavs in 5

Celtics (10) vs Heat (13): Celtics after a 27-5 start, are a 23-27 team.  This is not a good team right now, though they have played in stretches.  Wade the best player on the floor.  Heat playing better D than Boston, but it’s a toss up.  Celtics in 7

Magic (1) vs Bobcats (14): Top 2 defenses in the league.  Alas the Magic have offensive skill.  Magic in 5.

Hawks (8) vs Bucks (15):  Hawks have been metsa metsa since a fast start.  However, their efficient size-based offense has been there all year.  Bucks are scrappy, tough defensively, but without Bogut the size match is too problematic.  Hawks in 6

WEST:

Lakers (7) vs Thunder (6): You read that right.  Thunder have the better body of work in terms of indicators even with 9 less wins.  Durant is a prime time scorer.  They are a good defensive club (7th).  The Lakers were the top defensive team when healthy though, and the wins and home court count for something.  If Kobe is ready and effective, they should advance.  But the Thunder will not be pushovers.  Lakers in 6

Nuggets (9) vs Jazz (5): Another upside down series.  Jazz hurt themselves badly slipping out of the home court position by getting whomped by Phoenix.  They have played better basketball than Denver all season, but Denver is still better against good teams (5th, Utah 11th).  And with home court, and Utah with an iffy Boozer, they get the edge despite their own myriad of issues.  Nuggets in 7

Mavericks (12) vs Spurs (4): Mavericks have been close game kings all season.  The Spurs have outpaced them in fundamentals most of the season.  Does this mean they will win?  Not sure.  Dallas won in 5 last year and the matchups favor them in a lot of places.  That said Manu is healthy, and we have not had that for a while.  Spurs in 6

Suns (3) vs Blazers (11):  Love this series.  Lots of matchups up front (Amare vs Aldridge), at the point (Nash vs Miller), subplots (Suns vs the slowest paced team in the game … will Roy be effective).  Suns have been the big overachievers in the league this season – their last two wins have been special.  They are as good offensively as ever.  Can they defend the paint though.  This could go any direction, but I just don’t think the Blazers have the offense without Roy at 90%.  Suns in 7

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Week 18 NBA Power Rankings

The dog days of March and April are upon us as the teams head towards the finish line and prepare for the playoffs.  For this week’s feature, we will also examine the conference standings … let’s call it our bracketology – as always the methodology is here:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Cavaliers 50 15 104.814 (2) 96.847 (6) 1.777 3.009 (27) 12.753
2 Magic 44 20 103.038 (7) 96.064 (4) 1.805 3.243 (26) 12.022
3 Lakers 46 18 101.213 (11) 95.914 (2) 1.641 3.755 (9) 10.695
4 Jazz 40 22 102.682 (8) 98.33 (10) 1.637 3.966 (4) 9.955
5 Nuggets 42 21 104.31 (3) 99.658 (13) 1.667 3.54 (16) 9.858
6 Celtics 40 21 100.59 (13) 95.627 (1) 1.836 2.927 (30) 9.726
7 Spurs 36 25 102.384 (10) 98.101 (9) 1.664 3.471 (19) 9.417
8 Thunder 38 24 100.022 (15) 96.022 (3) 1.806 3.57 (15) 9.376
9 Suns 40 25 107.069 (1) 103.091 (25) 1.777 3.597 (13) 9.352
10 Hawks 40 23 104.003 (4) 100.176 (15) 1.722 3.459 (20) 9.009
11 Mavericks 44 21 102.427 (9) 99.005 (12) 1.831 3.64 (11) 8.892
12 Blazers 37 28 103.581 (6) 100.367 (16) 1.723 3.539 (17) 8.476
13 Heat 32 31 99.769 (16) 97.791 (8) 1.778 3.92 (5) 7.676
14 Bucks 33 29 97.406 (23) 96.5 (5) 1.863 2.996 (28) 5.765
15 Rockets 31 31 99.58 (18) 99.76 (14) 1.75 4.181 (1) 5.751
16 Bobcats 30 31 96.965 (24) 96.884 (7) 1.779 3.808 (7) 5.667
17 Raptors 32 29 103.876 (5) 104.427 (30) 1.664 3.428 (21) 4.541
18 Hornets 32 32 100.52 (14) 102.256 (22) 1.75 3.623 (12) 3.637
19 Grizzlies 33 31 100.842 (12) 102.65 (24) 1.695 3.587 (14) 3.475
20 Bulls 31 31 96.203 (27) 98.452 (11) 1.75 3.381 (23) 2.882
21 Kings 21 42 98.831 (21) 102.482 (23) 1.833 4.038 (2) 2.221
22 Sixers 23 39 99.031 (20) 102.142 (21) 1.863 3.334 (24) 2.086
23 Warriors 17 46 99.463 (19) 103.537 (28) 1.778 4.032 (3) 1.736
24 Knicks 22 41 99.642 (17) 103.136 (26) 1.556 2.965 (29) 1.028
25 Clippers 25 38 96.914 (25) 101.384 (18) 1.722 3.717 (10) 0.97
26 Wizards 21 39 97.744 (22) 101.984 (20) 1.692 3.288 (25) 0.739
27 Pacers 20 43 95.487 (28) 100.523 (17) 1.889 3.422 (22) 0.275
28 Pistons 22 41 96.805 (26) 101.964 (19) 1.722 3.523 (18) 0.086
29 Timberwolves 14 50 94.615 (29) 103.239 (27) 1.75 3.792 (8) -3.082
30 Nets 7 56 92.795 (30) 103.938 (29) 1.778 3.887 (6) -5.478

Some quick thoughts:

  • After an authoritative loss to Denver, despite the 3-1 week, the Thunder back to 8th.  Really the key are the margins now – virtually no difference between 4 and 10.  Unlike last year the oligarchy is less obvious.
  • Mavericks of course are the hottest team in the league but it has not shown up here as they are still 11th.  Fact is, scoring margins are better leading indicators and they have not really been authoritative against their competition – quite a bit of which is not good.

As far as what leading indicators say about the playoffs if they began today?

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Cavaliers vs (8) Bulls … (#1 power rankings vs #22)  Rose is a good player, but the Bulls 27th ranked offense is no match for Cleveland, Cavs in 4

(4) Hawks vs (5) Bucks … (#10 vs #14) Closer than it looks.  Bucks have turned a corner (#5 defense) – especially with Salmons in the backcourt.  Jennings is learning – and performance has suffered, but Hawks in 6 makes sense

(2) Magic vs (7) Heat … (#2 vs #13) Heat are very average but Dwayne Wade isn’t.  Enough to steal a game at least.  Magic in 5

(3) Celtics vs (6) Raptors … (#6 vs #17) The resistable force (Celtics quaint 13th ranked offense) against the highly movable object (the Raptors 30th ranked defense).  Fun but Celtics in 5.

Cavaliers over Hawks in 5, Magic over Celtics in 6 … Cavaliers over Magic in 7 – if Shaq is healthy to help the matchups out, but it’s a toss up series

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Lakers vs (8) Blazers … (#3 vs #12) … shows you the differences at the bottom of the conference.  Blazers are dead here, but will show some character – Lakers in 6

(4) Jazz vs (5) Suns … (#4 vs #9) … Jazz just a bad matchup with their size.  Jazz in 5

(2) Mavericks vs (7) Spurs … (#11 vs #7) … metrics to be tested here.  Mavs have the wins, Spurs indicators are better.  If Duncan is healthy as is Parker – the Spurs are STILL better – seriously. Spurs in 6

(3) Nuggets vs (6) Thunder … (#5 vs #8) … best series of the first round, Melo v Durant.  Nuggets stomped them this past week.  But for a whole series the storylines are everywhere.  Nuggets in 7

Lakers over Jazz in 5, Nuggets over Spurs in 6 … Lakers over Nuggets in 7