Tag Archives: NBA

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #6

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , ,

With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (2) Heat (25-7)
  2. (4) Thunder (25-7)
  3. (1) Bulls (26-8)
  4. (3) Sixers (20-12)
  5. (5) Spurs (23-9)
  6. (9) Mavericks (23-12)
  7. (6) Hawks (19-13)
  8. (8) Nuggets (18-15)
  9. (7) Blazers (17-16)
  10. (10) Lakers (19-13)
  11. (15) Magic (21-12)
  12. (11) Clippers (19-11) Celtics (15-12)
  13. (13) Rockets (19-14)
  14. (16) Grizzlies (18-15)
  15. (14) Pacers (19-12)
  16. (12) Celtics (15-16)
  17. (17) Timberwolves (16-17)
  18. (19) Warriors (12-17) Jazz (14-13)
  19. (18) Jazz (15-16)
  20. (20) Bucks (13-20)
  21. (22) Suns (14-19)
  22. (21) Knicks (16-17)
  23. (24) Hornets (7-24)
  24. (23) Cavaliers (12-17)
  25. (25) Raptors (9-23)
  26. (26) Kings (10-21)
  27. (28) Nets (10-24)
  28. (29) Pistons (11-22)
  29. (27) Wizards (7-25)
  30. (30) Bobcats (4-27)

Some notes:

  1. Who is that masked man at #4.  As Jim Ross might say, MY GAWD!!!  IT’S THE SAN ANTONIO SPURS!!  Somehow or another, they are a factor again – rising all the way up to the lofty #5 position.  Of course this should not be surprising us anymore – the Spurs decade long run of contendorhood is pretty amazing.  What is more interesting though is how stereotypes tend to work.  If you dismiss the Spurs – or just don’t think of them – you might lean on what you remember from 2003 and 2007 as to who they are – withering defense and Tim Duncan.  However, this team – assembling so many wins against a good schedule – is actually not a good defensive team.  It is weird to say that the Spurs are an offensive team – and certainly their below average pace hides the explosiveness – but this is a team that wins by scoring (6th on offense).  In particular, they win because they can shoot – 4th in total FG%, 3rd best three point percentage while making the 5th most (per possession) – it carries them to the 5th best true shooting team in the league.  The shot generation is average – they don’t recover many of their few misses, but they hardly turn it over so they are getting a solid number of looks.  On defense, they actually resemble the 2007 Suns more than the 2007 Spurs, where their real strength is not fouling (tops in the league), allowing the 8th fewest makes from 3 and 2nd in the league in defensive rebounding.  They force a lot of 2 point shots and recover misses – which allows their defense to be meh (instead of bad).
  2. And while we get a view of the top with the Spurs, let’s go down low and appreciate the awesome level of badness that is the Charlotte Bobcats.  At 4-27, the record is pristine to be sure.  They are on pace to win more than the 9-73 rate the 1973 Sixers team did.  Indeed, I expect some winning to pick up as Gerald Henderson returns and the other teams start to care less and focus on playoff positioning.  This is all crap we know.  In the same vein, the Bobcats are currently rating a staggering -10.7 points.  Let’s put it this way, the Wizards – also terrible at 7-25, would be nearly 5 point favorites – it’s really that bad.  The Bobcats lack of talent is obvious – seriously if Kemba Walker is your beacon of hope (Walker is a nice prospect – but a Vinnie Johnson upside) what can you say?  Obviously the Bobcats are the worst offense in the league, alternating poor shooting with poor offensive rebounding.  They are the worst at making shots they get, and 23rd in getting shots of any kind.  What is a surprise to a degree though is defensively they are also pretty terrible, allowing the 28th best FG% overall and being 2nd from the bottom in forcing turnovers along with a desultory 24th in rebounding.  Really the team is just bad in an admirably consistent way.  Even the Timberwolves of last year for instance, estimably awful, but capable at recovering misses.  Charlotte can’t even do that right.

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #5

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , ,

With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (1) Bulls (23-7)
  2. (3) Heat (22-7)
  3. (2) Sixers (20-9)
  4. (4) Thunder (21-6)
  5. (8) Spurs (19-9)
  6. (6) Hawks (18-10)
  7. (5) Blazers (15-13)
  8. (7) Nuggets (16-12)
  9. (13) Mavericks (18-11)
  10. (9) Lakers (16-12)
  11. (11) Clippers (17-9)
  12. (10) Celtics (15-12)
  13. (14) Rockets (16-12)
  14. (12) Pacers (17-10)
  15. (17) Magic (18-11)
  16. (15) Grizzlies (14-14)
  17. (16) Timberwolves (13-16)
  18. (18) Jazz (14-13)
  19. (21) Warriors (11-14)
  20. (19) Bucks (12-16)
  21. (22) Knicks (13-15)
  22. (20) Suns (12-16)
  23. (24) Cavaliers (10-16)
  24. (23) Hornets (5-23)
  25. (25) Raptors (9-20)
  26. (26) Kings (10-17)
  27. (28) Wizards (6-22)
  28. (27) Nets (8-21)
  29. (29) Pistons (8-21)
  30. (30) Bobcats (3-25)

Some notes:

  1. We start with a trip to Oakland and the league’s most Quixotic fans – Warriors fans.  For anybody who watched their shocking upset of the Mavericks in 2007, the ability of the fans to lift a team is palpable there – it sounded like the old Chicago Stadium, and that’s saying something.  Alas, that upset has been the extent of the highlights on the court.  Indeed the last few years we have had bad teams, but entertaining ones that could light up the scoreboard.  With Mark Jackson taking over as coach, there was a commitment to a more defense, championship timber club.  What is interesting though is that the defensive culture in Golden State is still as lax as ever – while the offense is actually much better.  The numbers are a bit muted as these Warriors are middle of the road in terms of pace – but this is the most efficient offense (relative to the league) Golden State has had recently.  What is particularly interesting comparing side by side is how little things have changed.  They still shoot the three both very well and very frequently.  They still don’t get to the line hardly at all – and they are a pretty shaky rebounding team (and indeed substantially worse offensively).  However – they take care of the ball a bit better and are shooting their 2-pointers a lot better, enough to be 4th in the league in FG%.  This is also though a harbinger of rough times maybe – 2 pt FG% is pretty fickle, and one thinks there might be some regression coming.  Scanning the personnel, it is not like there is a huge change in the shape of the offense.  The defense as mentioned before is as bad as ever – and they are still a horrendous defensive rebounding side, and are near the bottom in sending opponents to the line.  Jackson has the team gambling less defensively – but it has not shown in the final results.  The Warriors have a ways to go for the positive changes in ownership to reflect in the product.
  2. Checking in at 18-11, and starting to move up the ladder are the Magic.  Of course 2 weeks ago, we left them with a disastrous week, featuring a 56 point outing at Boston and blown 27 point lead hosting Boston (yay Boston).  Since then though the Magic have perked up.  Really, we always hear about the psychodrama surrounding Dwight Howard – but possibly he has found some contentment (or resignation) in the current situation.  Despite the Magic’s offensive issues a couple of weeks back, where they had been struggling was on the defensive end of the floor.  Last year the Magic were 3rd in the league defensively despite having very little defensive muscle besides Howard.  Earlier in the year the team had been scuffling, but we see them up to 12th now.  The Magic in the past have focused on defending without fouling (not gambling) and superior rebounding.  This year, the rebounding has been there but the attention to detail in defense has not – but it has improved.  Magic up to a reasonable 11th in FG%, and so up their fortunes have come with it.
  3. This week’s edition would be incomplete without noting the jump the Knicks have made.  I have no real metric argument here, just a chance to rant a bit on Jeremy Lin.  The Knicks themselves are still a shaky offensive team with a surprisingly good defense considering D’Antoni’s reputation (2nd in the league in forced turnovers, 7th in defensive rebounding – they just don’t give up a ton of looks at the basket which makes up for their meh FG%).  But Lin of course has had the best first 4 starts in league history.  You have to be realistic of course – he is not this good, very few players are.  That said, he is 6’3″ 200 lbs – basically Chauncey Billups’ size.  He has a lot of steals, rebounds, gets to the line a lot.  Unlike most small school kids, he is an elite athlete.  He needs to shoot better, but that you can improve.  Lin is a rotation caliber PG right now, and the Knicks have none of those – and there is no reason he cannot be a solid starter for a long time.
  4. The big move up this week has been Dallas.  At 18-11, it is amazing to see Rick Carlisle cobble together this start despite the issues they had with conditioning and injuries.  More amazing is how despite losing Tyson Chandler, the Mavericks have remade themselves into a defensive juggernaut.  They are 18-11 against a solid schedule despite being 20th in offense (still not getting to the line, still not getting second shots, but now missing the shots they DO take).  Instead the historically underwhelming (or undervalued) Mavs D is carrying them this year.  Yeah Odom has sucked on offense, but he is a very useful defender.  So is Vince Carter despite his reputation, and Brendan Haywood has successfully impersonated a competent C this year.  All that adds up to a team that is 3rd in FG defense and 5th in forcing turnovers.  The Mavs are top 10 in TS% and shot prevention – and that has allowed them to survive themselves.  Given the reputations and past performances of their top guys on offense – this is nothing but good news for the long term.

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #4

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , ,

With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (3) Bulls (21-6)
  2. (2) Sixers (18-7)
  3. (1) Heat (18-6)
  4. (6) Thunder (19-5)
  5. (8) Blazers (14-11)
  6. (4) Hawks (16-9)
  7. (5) Nuggets (15-10)
  8. (9) Spurs (17-9)
  9. (11) Lakers (14-11)
  10. (12) Celtics (13-10)
  11. (10) Clippers (15-7)
  12. (15) Pacers (16-7)
  13. (7) Mavericks (14-11)
  14. (14) Rockets (14-11)
  15. (17) Grizzlies (12-13)
  16. (13) Timberwolves (12-12)
  17. (18) Magic (15-10)
  18. (16) Jazz (13-10)
  19. (19) Bucks (10-13)
  20. (21) Suns (10-14)
  21. (22) Warriors (8-13)
  22. (24) Knicks (10-15)
  23. (20) Hornets (4-21)
  24. (25) Cavaliers (9-13)
  25. (23) Raptors (8-18)
  26. (28) Kings (9-15)
  27. (26) Nets (8-18)
  28. (27) Wizards (5-20)
  29. (28) Pistons (6-20)
  30. (30) Bobcats (3-21)

Some notes:

  1. Back in the top spot is Chicago – they have been there before this year, they finished the regular season last year #1.  Put simply, there is something to lean on here.  That said, as the Miami playoff showed, the offense was a problem.  The Bulls won last year with a combination of the league’s best defense and an offense that was above average – much the same formula the Celtics took to the title when Tom Thibodeau was assisting Doc Rivers.  That said, unlike the Celtics – the Bulls were in 2011 one of the league’s better shot generating teams.  The Bulls were 4th in the league at offensive rebounding and while the turnover rate was below average, it was enough to give them a lot of shots at the basket.  Despite a mediocre TS team, they were able to squeeze some extra juice out of their possessions.  What is interesting this year is the turnaround their offense HAS made – and it gives some hope for them advancing further in the playoffs.  The Bulls simply put, are making more shots.  Replacing Keith Bogans’ corpse with Richard Hamilton’s corpse has helped.  Also, a shocking improvement (probably unsustainable) by CJ Watson has upped the ante too – along with Derrick Rose upping his own FG%.  The team is just shooting better, their 3 point percentage has also gone up to 7th in the league – and while they get to the line less, it is by no means a huge drop off.  The TS side of the formula has gone up – while the already excellent shot generation is even better.  The Bulls are tops in the league in offensive rebounding, and they take care of the ball much better this season … all this leads to the 2nd best shot generating team in basketball.  So the Bulls are getting more shots up, and making more shots – this bodes well.
  2. The Suns … 20th in offense, it’s inconceivable.  Let’s move on.
  3. The 6th ranked Hawks did not have a particularly good week – and they are showing some possible regression to the mean here.  Al Horford is a really good player, and it is hard to imagine them being able to truck on without him so fearlessly.  But this is a good team, and that’s still 16 games they don’t have to win again.  The pieces are there to make the playoffs and possibly win a round considering the non-Miami and Chicago flotsam in the conference.  What is remarkable is the Hawks have been a legitimately good team this year with virtually no turnover from last year – when they were a searingly mediocre one.  Obviously the first real change is in personnel where Jeff Teague has showed he can be a legitimately decent NBA point guard.  If you saw him at Wake Forest, the elite level athletic ability has not abated.  He has been very strong defensively and has run a solid offense – not the elite level they were in 2010 on that end of the floor, but a more than estimable 11th.  However, their big leap has been defensively.  A year ago, this was an area of mediocrity, while now it is a strength.  Part of it is having Teague to check point guards.  Part of it is having an elite defender like Kirk Hinrich to be able to match up with a variety of alignments.  Part of it is Marvin Williams settling into becoming a good rotation player, and Josh Smith limiting his mental vacations.  But whatever the cause, the same roster which only was 11th in TS allowed due to its ability to resist committing fouls and defend the three, the roster which was near the bottom of the league in shot prevention – is in the top ten in both.  The Hawks have defended two point shots better this year while still fouling very little.  Moreover, they have risen from 29th in forcing turnovers a year ago to a solid 14th.  If the Hawks continue to defend this well – and really Josh Smith has to be the pillar here – they will not go away.
  4. The Clippers acquisition of Kenyon Martin is a quiet gem of a move.  The team clearly has a giant pile of bupkus behind Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan.  Everybody knows that.  But what everybody might not know is that the front court has also been quietly atrocious defensively.  Griffin has not shown an ability to be a high effort defender, and Jordan for his shot blocking clearly has not learned any of the Tim Duncan calculus on when is a good time to take a chance.  What is interesting is that despite an elite defensive backcourt – the Clippers are a pretty bad defensive team, and bad in a surprisingly across the board way.  They have issues defending the two, the three (28th), they foul too much (28th) and they aren’t especially distinguished at recovering misses when they DO happen (19th) or forcing turnovers (19th).  The offense has had to carry them and largely it has.  Martin, who has been an elite defensive big his whole life HAS to be able to help this somewhat.  Of course, part of defense is scheme and coaching and scouting, and this is still the cheap-ass CLIPPERS we are talking about.  If you think Vinnie Del Negro is an incompetent coach, the defensive level here might be something your lawyer might use in a trial.

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #3

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , ,

OK, OK … I’m done whining about the quality of basketball so far.  It is what it is – maybe the season will get better – but the season is unfolding in a compelling way.  How have the rankings changed since last week’s tome?  Here ya go (previous position in parentheses):

  1. (3) Heat (16-5)
  2. (1) Sixers (15-6)
  3. (2) Bulls (18-5)
  4. (4) Hawks (15-6)
  5. (6) Nuggets (14-6)
  6. (5) Thunder (16-4)
  7. (9) Mavericks (14-8)
  8. (10) Blazers (12-9)
  9. (13) Spurs (13-9)
  10. (14) Clippers (12-7)
  11. (7) Lakers (12-9)
  12. (19) Celtics (9-10)
  13. (16) Timberwolves (10-11)
  14. (17) Rockets (12-9)
  15. (15) Pacers (13-6)
  16. (8) Jazz (12-7)
  17. (11) Grizzlies (10-10)
  18. (12) Magic (12-8)
  19. (21) Bucks (9-11)
  20. (20) Hornets (4-17)
  21. (18) Suns (7-13)
  22. (22) Warriors (6-12)
  23. (24) Raptors (7-14)
  24. (23) Knicks (7-13)
  25. (25) Cavaliers (8-11)
  26. (26) Nets (7-13)
  27. (29) Wizards (4-17)
  28. (27) Kings (6-14)
  29. (28) Pistons (4-18)
  30. (30) Bobcats (3-18)

Some notes:

  1. The big mover in the right direction has been Boston.  Yeah, 9-10 is not oozing impressiveness, and the schedule has not been the most strenuous.  However, the dual wins over Orlando and spunky win over Indiana more than offset the toe stub against the Cavaliers.  Considering how few points they have scored all season, it is easy for storyline NBA writers to talk about their offensive woes and how their defense misses Kendrick Perkins.  As it turns out, their offensive woes are overrated – they are not very good offensively, but they have been this way for a while now with the snail like pace they operate at.  The Celtics, as usual, are a good TS% team – 7th in the league, but between their indifferent offensive rebounding and lousy turnover rate – the Celtics like last year still generate the fewest looks of any team in the league.  That said, the defense has risen since Paul Pierce has returned.  The defense now is 2nd in the league, the best of the non-Sixers (who have lapped the field so far in that department).  Really where the team misses Perkins perhaps and still needs to improve is its 15th ranked defensive rebounding.  However, the Celtics are back to sort of usual – they need scoring more than defense.
  2. One thing to note about Boston’s results is that it might be skewed by its results over Orlando who had sort of a worst week ever.  Aside from a good win at Indiana, the Magic have been littered with awesomely poor efforts in Boston, and hosting Boston in the 2nd half, and then at New Orleans (though the Hornets are not as bad as their record).  Yeah their offense has looked horrible lately, but they always look that way because of the number of 3s hoisted up.  The TS% is a bit worse than a year ago (12th from 9th) but the real dropoff has been defensively.  This year the Magic – though about the same defensively quantitatively a year ago – has slipped from elite to decent.  Considering that Dwight Howard is their only good defensive player – he might be the cause.  Is he checking out of the season the way Melo did?  Considering his willingness to answer questions about future destinations on the record a la Melo 2011, it is hard to say no.
  3. The Magic right now are just punching above its metric weight.  The plunge of the week though went to Utah who slipped on the basis of a 2-2 week, with a home loss to Toronto being particularly mystifying.  The Jazz have been the beneficiaries of great seasons from Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap.  The bigs have led the Jazz to the 3rd most frequent visitor to the foul line, and the league’s 2nd best offensive rebound rate.  The two guys are strong with the ball too – as the Jazz have been a very low turnover team.  Sure Devin Harris has struggled and was never a passing point guard to begin with, but the Jazz with their pounding offense – manage to take care of the ball since it does not move much.  The Jazz are near the bottom of the league from 3, so this is really a 1976 sort of strategy – but so far the quantity approach (3rd in the league in shot generation) has worked out.  Really the Jazz have had to win with offense as the defense is not very good – merely 16th in the league – and seems distinguished only by the number of fouls committed.  Some things don’t change.
  4. If the Magic are the bad of recent note, the Ugly, Pathetic, and Sad have to be the Phoenix Suns.  A mere two seasons ago we’re talking about a team that was a scant two wins from the Finals.  Obviously they chose to let Amare go for financial reasons or whatever – but all of the personnel moves since are amazing to regard in collective.  I mean, in 2010 this team averaged 108 points per average paced game.  To give a perspective, the best team in 2011 was Denver at 104.3 let alone this year’s Denver’s 100.6.  So the Suns were a full 8 points better than the elite teams of this season!  Of course the 2010 Suns were merely a sentence of one of the great paragraphs in NBA history – a six year stretch interrupted by a brief blip where the otherwise brilliant Steve Kerr thought they needed to change – some of the best, most well oiled offensive teams ever.  Indeed while Mike D’Antoni was there, the defense was actually fairly good – the lack of physicality and pace of play obscured the fact that the team did a good job defending without fouling and largely preventing high value shots.  But you look at last year – as the Suns added Josh Childress, and then Vince Carter and Marcin Gortat – and became a more conventional alignment  – the team slipped to a mortal 9th place.  Meanwhile without Stoudemire there to provide any meaningful resistance – the defense actually DID start to stink.  This year it’s just depressing how far it has fallen.  The Suns are a mere 17th in pace, and now a sick sad 23rd in offense.  A Steve Nash team 23rd in offense?  92 points per game?  SIXTEEN POINTS WORSE than 2010?  From first in true shooting to 19th.  It’s a shame – and it feels entirely self inflicted as Steve Kerr laughs maniacally from his TNT position.  I am not sure the old way would have won a title – but we know THIS way won’t, and it ends up being horrendous basketball to boot.  A team that cranks out 60 win seasons – even if you don’t think it is a particular sustainable model – is some SORT of contender?  Shouldn’t Phoenix have ridden that out?  It’s not like they were blown out in their chances to shine.  Sigh.

 

 

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #2

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , ,

Well, since the last time we did this report, the league has crammed in another 116 games.  As we had pointed out then, the effects of the lockout and the accelerated offseason showed in some pretty shoddy basketball.  Well with more data, through 241 games the league PPP is still at 0.998, a far cry from last year’s 1.04.  Put another way, currently only 6 teams are above that number this season compared to 15 a year ago at this time.  Just like last week, we can see other metrics.

  • Turnover Rate: Last Year: 15.3% of possessions, This Year: 16.0%
  • TS%: Last Year: 54%, This Year: 52.1%
  • Shots per possession: Last Year: 0.962, This Year: 0.958.

With even two more weeks, the trends have been getting worse, instead of better.  The turnovers remain up, while the shooting is going down, and so the leaguewide scoring has gone down with it.  Just like we mentioned last time, it is tempting to attribute this to great defense – but given the lack of cohesion on so many rosters and the limited time together, it feels a lot like poor offense is much more to blame.  One place this might be evident is leaguewide foul shooting.  A year ago it was 76.4%, while this year it is down to 74.5%.  There is no reason for this to be the case other than guys just shooting poorly.  The league 3P% (35.6 to 34.0) has dipped as well.  So if you think that there have been a lot of low scoring, high turnover, poor shooting games – it’s not just you.

That said, despite the hide your eyes bad level of offensive play, and the way too aggressive schedule – the league is starting to unfold.  The latest rankings are in a permanent home this year, so hopefully you can skip right to the good stuff without reading all this jibberish.  However, if you are reading this – might as well get some observations out of the way:

  1. The Sixers hold the number one position again.  Granted, their losses to the Knicks and Heat do not give much confidence that this is the team’s true level.  However, they have clobbered the flotsam on their schedule.  120-89 over the Wizards, 112-85 over the Kings, etc etc.  This has led to that very lofty league’s #1 defensive ranking.  The Sixers are still excelling at preventing good looks, as their league best TS% allowed shows.  In particular, they continue to do a sensational job at limiting high value shots – leading the league in fewest three pointers allowed and 3rd in FT rate allowed.  That said, in the blowout loss to Miami, the Sixers allowed 54% shooting, 7 threes made in 89 possessions and 21 FTs, all much higher than their lofty levels, and all actually closer to last in the league than anything.  The Sixers seem to be above their heads, but the empirical case for them is still strong.
  2. This early in the season it is interesting to note teams whose rankings and record do not match.  A glaring case is the Indiana Pacers, whom the writer-sphere seems to think is a team to watch and whatever.  Certainly their depth is a virtue in this short season, and they have a number of good, close wins – last night at the Lakers most prominently.  The defense has been excellent, in particular leading the league in FG defense.  Without any other sensational fundamentals, their 41% FG allowed has carried them to the league’s 5th rated defense.  However, their scoring margin has not been that eye popping, mostly because of a gang which so far has not shot straight.  The 41% FG allowed is great.  The 41.9% FG of their own?  Yikes.  Fortunately, they have shot the three well (4th in the league and could stand to shoot it more) and have been one of the best teams in the league at converting at the foul line.  This has propped them up to 23rd in TS%, still not good, especially with the team being a pedestrian 26th in shots per possession.  The Pacers need to crank up the efficiency on that end of the floor.
  3. The big mover in a good way though has clearly been the Grizzlies – which is particularly surprising given the extended absence of Zach Randolph.  As you recall, last year’s late run sans Rudy Gay was driven by almost a 1976 style of play with very few three pointers and a maniacal attention to getting inside.  What is interesting is that much of their offensive style has not changed – actually they have kind of turned into the 2008-2010 Boston Celtics.  They are still not shooting the three (second from the bottom in threes per possession), they don’t get to the line much – but they shoot the twos very well, 4th in overall FG% and that has kept their TS% in the middle of the pack despite being only average at generating shots (16th – this is better tham the Celtics normally do since the Grizzlies actually crash the boards and limit turnovers).  The drop in shot generation and getting to the line has limited the offensive bonanza that their FG% would portend.  Z-Bo clearly helps in both areas.  Just as clearly, he doesn’t help play defense – and the Grizzlies have continued to be an elite turnover generating team – the Tony Allen Experience indeed – and that has been more than sufficient to offset any defensive rebounding help Z-Bo offered.  The Grizzlies were the best team in the league a season ago at preventing looks at the basket.  Now, that is not the case, but they have managed to stay a respectable 7th.

As far as the rankings through the games of 1/22/12? (Rankings from the first report – 1/8/12  – in parentheses):

  1. (1) Sixers (11-5)
  2. (5) Bulls (15-3)
  3. (3) Heat (11-5)
  4. (6) Hawks (12-5)
  5. (10) Thunder (13-3)
  6. (4) Nuggets (12-5)
  7. (9) Lakers (10-8)
  8. (13) Jazz (10-5) Suns (4-4)
  9. (16) Mavericks (10-7)
  10. (2) Blazers (9-7)
  11. (24) Grizzlies (9-6)
  12. (17) Magic (11-4)
  13. (12) Spurs (10-7)
  14. (7) Clippers (9-6)
  15. (14) Pacers (11-4)
  16. (11) Timberwolves (7-9)
  17. (19) Rockets (9-7)
  18. (8) Suns (6-9)
  19. (20) Celtics (6-9)
  20. (18) Hornets (3-13)
  21. (23) Bucks (6-9)
  22. (22) Warriors (5-10)
  23. (25) Knicks (6-10)
  24. (15) Raptors (4-13)
  25. (21) Cavaliers (6-9)
  26. (29) Nets (5-11)
  27. (28) Kings (6-11)
  28. (27) Pistons (4-13)
  29. (30) Wizards (2-14)
  30. (26) Bobcats (3-14)

Anyway, hopefully the season report will be a semi-regular feature.  Even still, the rankings will be updated at least once a week.

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #1

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , ,

So, let me get this straight.  We are trying to squeeze in 66 games in 4 months, instead of the normal 82 games in 6 – all of this with a two week training camp and offseason?  And the basketball was going to be good?  Ummm … ok.  Yeah, the Christmas games between New York and Boston and the Lakers and the Bulls were false alarms apparently – as we have had some really crappy basketball to start the year.  How crappy?  Well, last year overall we were averaging 1.045 points per possession.  Right now, the number is 0.998.  Put simply, was was 27th a year ago is 15th right now – yeeah.  So if you thought the points have dropped off (with the pace staying the same), you’re right.  Even if we just compare the first 125 games of the league season (how many games have been played to date), last season we had 1.033 points per possession.  1.033 this year would place you at 8th in the league.  Compare some other stats across the last two season’s first 125 games:

  • Turnover Rate: Last Year: 15.9% of possessions, This Year: 15.9%
  • TS%: Last Year: 54%, This Year: 52%
  • Shots per possession: Last Year: 0.98, This Year: 0.96.

Basically the game has slowed, down – teams are shooting less efficiently, and getting fewer looks at the basket.  It is tempting to salute defense, but this early in the season – one thinks that it is more shoddy play than high quality defending.

That said, despite the hide your eyes bad level of offensive play, and the way too aggressive schedule – the league is starting to unfold.  The latest rankings are in a permanent home this year, so hopefully you can skip right to the good stuff without reading all this jibberish.  However, if you are reading this – might as well get some observations out of the way:

  1. Yes, that is right, the Sixers start out at #1.  You get through a five game road trip to start the season with just two losses and have a +15 normalized scoring margin?  You’re doing something right.  As we know, Doug Collins – the Al Dunlap of NBA Coaches – took this merry band of misfits into a playoff team a year ago, and with almost no personnel changes – what is this?  The Sixers have the league’s top offense AND league’s top defense, and the way they have done both is a study in contrasts.  On offense, it has been a possession based strategy – the Sixers turn the ball over less than anybody, and have ended up 2nd in the league in shots per possession.  Take a pretty good 6th in TS%, and you have a team that is scoring at a very high level.  On defense, they have struggled taking the ball away or preventing offensive rebounds.  This could cause a problem down the road, but their top ranked TS% defense has held up its end of the bargain.  They have been very strong in all phases of ball shooting defense – tops in FG defense, tops in fewest FTs allowed, tops in fewest three point looks.
  2. The Heat of course were the favorites entering, and have done nothing to dissuade those bullish about them.  One obvious thing the Heat have changes tactically is getting out and running.  Their pace has risen from 21st to tops in the league – and so have the points, as they are still a good offensive team.   The pace increase has come from obviously their own priorities, but also their league leading turnover forcing defense – lot of chances to get into the open floor.  That said, there are some things to clean up – in particular trouble defending the 3 and fouling too much.  But the Heat are the league’s best TS%, and it is hard to say a whole lot bad about them.  The win at Atlanta with a skeleton crew and no James or Wade was particularly impressive.
  3. On the other end of the spectrum is the local entry, the Washington Wizards.  They are the league’s worst offense – by 4 points over 29th place.  To put it another way, the difference between 29 and 30 is larger than the difference between #29 and #25.  The Wizards badness on offense is a bit of a surprise with one of the league’s best offensive coaches in Flip Saunders and the Point Guard of the Future in John Wall.  However, John Wall has just been a dreadful shooter, and the Wizards in general do not seem to be getting good shots.  They are bad at shooting in general, and shoot two many contested two pointers – consider they are 29th in three point rate and 24th in FT attempts.  The Wizards have a knack for avoiding all high efficiency scoring – and as a result they are 30th in the league with a thud in TS%.

As far as the rankings through the games of 1/8/12?

  1. Sixers (5-2)
  2. Blazers (6-2)
  3. Heat (8-1)
  4. Nuggets (6-3)
  5. Bulls (7-2)
  6. Hawks (6-3)
  7. Clippers (4-2)
  8. Suns (4-4)
  9. Lakers (6-4)
  10. Thunder (8-2)
  11. Timberwolves (3-5)
  12. Spurs (6-3)
  13. Jazz (5-3)
  14. Pacers (6-2)
  15. Raptors (3-5)
  16. Mavericks (4-5)
  17. Magic (6-3)
  18. Hornets (3-6)
  19. Rockets (2-6)
  20. Celtics (4-4)
  21. Cavaliers (4-4)
  22. Warriors (2-6)
  23. Bucks (2-6)
  24. Grizzlies (3-5)
  25. Knicks (4-4)
  26. Bobcats (2-6)
  27. Pistons (2-6)
  28. Kings (3-6)
  29. Nets (2-7)
  30. Wizards (0-8)

Anyway, hopefully the season report will be a semi-regular feature.  Even still, the rankings will be updated at least once a week.

2012 NBA Preview

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , ,

Happy Holidays to all obviously.  With the holidays come the network’s first view of the NBA, and in this lockout shortened season, we get the season opener.  Obviously, given the attention we have given to the Association before in past years, I would be remiss not to at least give a few quick thoughts on the races.

WEST:

  1. Thumder: Expectations galore.  Best returning team, and the compressed schedule and short preseason help here.
  2. Clippers: More excitement, more depth.  They should win the Pacific.
  3. Spurs: Someone has to win the hyper competitive Southwest.  Spurs did a year ago, and the roster has better balance than the Mavs and Grizzlies still.
  4. Nuggets: Team best equipped to thrive on the compressed schedule.  Team has more legit NBA players than any other, and team has best chance to improve.
  5. Mavericks: Lack of beef up front a real problem.  But they have Dirk and quality depth.
  6. Lakers: Kobe will not be healthy all season with the wrist.  They are desperately thin up front, and the betting here is that Dwight will not go anywhere.
  7. Grizzlies: Wish they could make an outside shot.  Lot of career years last year which will come back to earth, but Rudy Gay’s emergence will offset a lot.
  8. Blazers: A good team without much upside, especially with Oden still hurt.  But a bit more than the others.
  9. Rockets, Jazz are fun upside plays, especially the Jazz who are going to be very good very soon.

EAST

  1. Heat: Best team in the league, and their big 3 will have more chemistry.  They also have a near NBA level supporting cast
  2. Bulls: If Hamilton gives them scoring pop, they will be really good, better than even this.
  3. Magic: They will keep Howard for one more rodeo.  It is the best thing for the franchise.
  4. Celtics: Old bones being creamed by the schedule.  But the division is so flimsy that it won’t matter.
  5. Knicks:  Close race with Boston, but defense is soft and not sure the talent is matched for what they want to do.
  6. Pacers: Lot of good pieces and depth.  Will help with this schedule.
  7. Sixers: Doug Collins might wear out his welcome here, but the team has good chemistry.
  8. Hawks: A mediocre team in a mediocre conference.
  9. Who cares, unlike the West, the list ends at 6.

Random NBA Musings

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , ,

With the NBA shutting its doors, a few final thoughts:

  1. The Finals were of course riveting.  Dirk Nowitzki deserves the love he got, although he has been this good for years.  Finally his TEAM won, so he is suddenly a better human being.  It’s funny how TV analysts work.  But the right team won.  Dallas showed composure throughout the series late, and the coaching adjustments Rick Carlisle made throughout allowed the Mavericks to hang with Miami despite their wings being desperately ill equipped to stop the Heat … on paper.
  2. The Heat have to be disappointed.  LeBron’s disappearing act has been written about ad infinitum.  Indeed he was visibly turning down not just looks, but the chance to crush horrific defensive matchups.  It was just weird to see him look, not lost, but uninterested in producing magic.  When someone notes that he is a Yankees and Cowboys fan – a guy who doesn’t want to bleed for it – I don’t know it’s true, but the evidence is there.
  3. The NBA draft did not elicit a post from here – mostly because it was so lacking in interesting names.  I mean, seriously, is there a perennial all-star of this crop?  No.  Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams are guaranteed non-failures, but is a solid starter-fringe All Star enough to turn my insides all mushy?  Come on.  Otherwise the Wizards had the best draft – Shelvin Mack, Chris Singleton are both good character guys with good defensive chops while Jan Vesley could be the crazy run and jump ath-a-lete who can make John Wall look good.
  4. Worst draft belongs to the Kings.  Now they got some good players, but the predraft trade of the #7 pick for the #10 pick and John Salmons’ corpse makes absolutely no sense.  No basketball sense, no financial sense – one wonders if former wunderking GM Geoff Petrie is even alive.
  5. As far as the lockout goes?  The players get my approval here, although not my sympathy since nobody’s starvin here.  But the players are free to negotiate their own deals – the owners are free to pay them as the cap allows.  Nobody tells the owners to pay these players obscene salaries.  Are there struggling markets?  Yes, but then the NBA should try to make them not struggle.  Stern in the previous negotiation was going for cost certainty, which was stupid (what other business does that) but fine.  Now they are going for PROFIT certainty, which removes all the purpose of owning a business.  Why should a crap market that doesn’t support its team be profitable?  Moreover, if the large markets are not sharing revenues in a meaningful way, why should the players be the ones to solve things?  The players should give back something – but they know that.  The owners are trying to break them.
  6. I expect this to be a while.
On the last point, I hope I’m wrong.

2011 NBA Finals Preview

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , ,

Without a ton of time to write, and because I’ve done a pretty extensive writeup on both teams at various intervals through this shiznit, let’s just stick with a few random things:

  1. Can Dallas play Barea and Terry together against the Miami wings?  Will the Wade factor be too much?
  2. Rebounding could decide the series.  Neither team is very good at it.  However with Chandler, Haywood and Nowitzki, Dallas has more bodies to throw at the problem.
  3. Free throws will also be a big deal.  Dallas was one of the worst teams in the league at getting to the line all season (with some exceptions in the last series) while Miami has been the league’s best all season.  Can Dallas manage the “hidden points” gap there?
  4. Nowitzki’s mismatch on Miami is substantial.  However, the story will be Dallas’ wings defensively against Miami’s ferocious firepower.  Can Dallas between the zones and Shawn Marion, find a way to cobble together a solution.

The pick: Miami in 6.  Dallas has Nowitzki and has been good all season.  But Miami with those top of the roster guys … pains me to say it …

On Dirk Nowitzki (Game 1, 2011 West Finals)

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , ,

Well, this came out of nowhere.  Two teams that engaged in solid defense down the stretch met, and the result was a wild 121-112 back to the 80s shootout.  The numbers coming out of this were incredible.  Kevin Durant scored 40 points on 18 shots, had a TS% for the game of 75.9% and was not even the sickest performance on the court.  That of course was Dirk Nowitzki’s historic 93.9% TS day scoring 48 points on 15 shots.  (24-24 from the line)  There have been a lot of ways to put the game in perspective.  Indeed, the TS% is one way.  Another one I liked was the idea of points per miss.  However, in the history of brutal individual efficiency, what if we add in turnovers to Dirk’s performance.  What this means is that Dirk, could have (theoretically) scored 58 points between the turnovers, and shot attempts.  He got 48 of them, for an 82.8%.  For some perspective Kevin Durant with his 18-19 FT, 18 FGA, and 3 turnovers scored 40 out of 61 points, or 65.6%.  Indeed, below are the percentage of possible points scored for the top 10 scorers in the league this season, and a few other interesting names sprinkled in.

  1. Kevin Durant: 2161 points, 1538 FGA, 675 FTA, 218 TO = 4187 possible points = 51.6%
  2. LeBron James: 2111 out of 4201 = 50.2%
  3. Carmelo Anthony: 1940 of 4023 = 49.0%
  4. Dwayne Wade: 1941 of 3894 = 49.8%
  5. Kobe Bryant: 2078 of 4347 = 47.8%
  6. Amare Stoudemire: 1971 of 4061 = 48.5%
  7. Derrick Rose: 2026 of 4305 = 47.1%
  8. Monta Ellis: 1929 of 4157 = 46.4%
  9. Kevin Martin: 1876 of 3571 = 52.5%
  10. Dirk Nowitzki: 1681 of 3075 = 54.7%

Really Nowtizki is well clear of the field in the ability to not waste chances to score.  Indeed scoping random names in the Top 20 you see Paul Pierce at 53.3% and see just how rare an air he is.  Dirk does not create for his teammates by passing them the ball per se, but he does it by not hogging scoring chances.  It is a talent that exists in negative space, so it’s not fun or sexy – the ability to not do something.  But it is considerable and last night it was on display for the nation.

But, as for the game in total – is there anything of consequence which can be gleaned?  Unlike Game 1 in the East, a lot here did not go to script.  Neither defense will be very proud of its performance.  Both of these teams have shown offensive chops, but in a reasonably paced game (only 93 possessions, around league regular season average), both teams had sterling PPPs. (to put it another way, no team this season average 1.1 points per possession, both teams flew past 1.2 last night).  Oklahoma City gets to the line more than anybody, and sure enough they got 43 free throw attempts in the 93 possessions, which obliterates their season average, while Dallas got to the line a ton 36 times compared to their more piddly .241 per possession (basically they got to the line 14 more times than normal in this game).  Both teams shot well and made their threes – really neither Oklahoma City’s physicality nor Dallas’ zones made any real impression on the other’s offense.

Will this continue?  Oklahoma City we know will keep drawing fouls at this rate, but can Dallas keep it up?  Obviously, officials have something to do with it, but the Thunder’s inability to keep Dallas off the line was huge.  Of course nobody expects Dirk to shoot like this, but the Mavericks are a jump shooting team – it is the non-jump shots that the Thunder need to be worried about.  Dallas got the win, but it is hard to envision them creating contact at yesterday’s rate – even if Dirk can make those midrange jumpers til the cows come home.