Wow, have things been busy in real-life land! Anyway, not much time to post, but figured some sort of update is needed.
As you might have noticed, NBA and College Basketball are back and so the power rankings are being updated – and a fresh batch of college basketball ones have just been noted. More formal updates will be coming, but figured it was worth a gander.
More music reviews – I have a few albums I have been trudging through as well as an experiment on one with one of my friends.
The college football title game is an obvious choice – although I’d argue Florida has a better profile. I’ll have more on what actually happened and some ideas on how things would look in a more perfect universe.
Let’s start with one thing. I don’t know what offers the Orlando Magic actually had here. Were they really poring through various offers of other teams’ trash? Was this really some Building 19 special we were dealing with? It all seems terribly weird for the league’s 2nd best player. Yeah yeah yeah, it is chic to say that Kevin Durant is the league’s best non-LeBron James player, but Dwight Howard’s total impact on both sides of the floor (as well as the general VORP factors associated with centers) is too hard to ignore. So, lapsing into Hubie Brown’s cadence, you have the 2nd best player in the league – one who could be a free agent after this season, what is he worth?
We know that Houston amassed trade assets by the boatload leading up to this – between some credible draft picks, cap space and players who know how to play basketball and have some upside – yeah not star upside, but rotation level upside. We know that Atlanta could have offered Al Horford and Jeff Teague – granted their motivation to do so might have been modest considering that they could have tried to sign Howard outright after the season. It is hard to think that Aaron Affalo, Al Harrington, Nikova Vucevic, Moe Harkless, a bunch of low value draft picks is a fair price for the 2nd best player in the league. I mean, that is a combined 0 players who are likely to be key players on the next good Orlando team. Apparently Orlando has a beat on Jabari Parker in 2014 or something – otherwise this is pretty horrible return for a truly great (albeit truly flaky) player.
For the Lakers, this is obviously heist. After trading a bunch of picks they don’t want for Steve Nash, getting Dwight Howard for Andrew Bynum and a sack of potatoes is pretty amazing. With Antawn Jamison augmenting their depth, the Lakers are still way thinner than what you’d prefer and relying on some old guys with big egos (Kobe cough cough), and the pieces do not fit precisely. But they have four of the 25 best players in the game! Is Dwight Howard healthy and capable of being the next great Lakers center and phase into the leader of the franchise? Well he won’t have to lead right away. Lakers have moved up to a solid 3rd in the pecking order behind Miami and OKC.
Denver’s role here is weird. On one hand you can blame them for midwifing a trade that reduces their chance of winning. That said, you’d make the Affalo-Harrington for Iguodala deal tomorrow. And he is perfect for George Karl’s system – athletic, elite defender. Given Denver’s model, this was a really shrewd trade. And really, Lakers or Thunder or Spurs – they probably were not going to usurp any of them anyhoo. They get a solid A- here.
The Sixers you have to wonder – would they have amnestied Elton Brand if they knew that they could have gotten Andrew Bynum. Doubtlessly that would have been better than Bynum and Spencer Hawes or whatever. But that said, Andrew Bynum – health risk and all – is the best player legitimately available to acquire outside of Dwight and they landed him. Bynum is from Jersey and the Sixers will have an edge in money they can offer. Bynum is no lock to sign, but the Sixers have as good a chance as anybody – maybe better than that. Studs don’t show up every day – so when you can get one – ask questions later.
And then there were four. After the Boston Celtics’ glorious though kind of unwatchable Game 7 win, we are left with 4 of the league’s 7 best teams and three of the top four. Of course this is no surprise given the NBA playoffs spectacular ability to identify the best team – you end up with precious few true surprises. So with a fairly chalky Final Four, how will this shake out?
Eastern Conference Finals: Miami Heat (4th overall, 6th offense, 4th defense) vs Boston Celtics (7th overall, 24th offense, 1st defense)
Wow, Avery Bradley’s loss is huge. Given how incompetent he looked for a year and half of his career, this is kind of incredible. Indeed, as John Hollinger pointed out, even with a rough shooting postseason, Bradley led the Celtics in +/-. If you remember his sensational block on Dwayne Wade in their regular season encounters – then you can see how Bradley’s loss coupled with Wade’s amazing last couple games in the Indiana series portend to something scary for Boston. Considering how horrible their offense has been, the Celtics need to lean on their defense and without Bradley that will be hard. Sure, Chris Bosh’s injury is a slow healer and a high risk one – he won’t be 100% – but LeBron and Wade are clicking so easily now that it is hard to envision the shorthanded Celtics being more than a bug on a windshield. Heat in 5
Western Conference Finals: San Antonio Spurs (2nd overall, 1st offense, 10th defense) vs Oklahoma City Thunder (3rd overall, 2nd offense, 8th defense)
The Spurs, with Parker and when not punting games to rest their old guys have won 43 of their last 47 games. This is obviously phenomenal. They have had blowouts down the stretch against all of their peers, including Oklahoma City. However, the Thunder’s body of work is a little better than the Spurs with a slightly better defense. However, San Antonio’s defense has hunkered down in the postseason – and you’d like to think that Duncan and Splitter mean a tougher interior D than Ibaka – who can block shots but not so much at position defense. Can the Thunder stop the Spurs’ pick and roll? It is hard to envision, given how the Spurs can spread you out so completely. In contrast, the Thunder’s offensive prowess is built into individual ability more than a passing and motion attack. Harden vs Ginobli, Parker vs Westbrook. The Thunder thrive on winning 1-on-1 battles, but can they win enough here to hang with the Spurs? Despite Durant’s brilliance – I just don’t see it. It is going to be a hell of a series though. Spurs in 6
First as you have probably seen from the last couple of entries, people still have Cystic Fibrosis – blah blah blah – click here to help …
FINALLY. The best of the playoff seasons is upon us. Of course this was after a truly execrable last couple of weeks of the season where teams were playing scrubs shamelessly while still charging full prices. The Tuesday Celtics-Heat game was a particular atrocity. So the rankings could be skewed a tiny bit. But whatever, the playoffs are here and looks at the series are coming up … how have the rankings changed since we last did this?
(2) Bulls (50-16)
(4) Spurs (50-16)
(1) Thunder (47-19)
(3) Heat (46-20)
(5) Sixers (35-31)
(10) Nugggets (38-28)
(6) Celtics (39-27)
(8) Hawks (40-26)
(7) Grizzlies (41-25)
(15) Clippers (40-26)
(13) Mavericks (36-30)
(9) Lakers (41-25)
(14) Knicks (36-30)
(16) Pacers (42-24)
(11) Magic (37-29)
(12) Rockets (34-32)
(18) Suns (33-33)
(20) Jazz (36-30)
(19) Bucks (31-35)
(17) Blazers (28-38)
(21) Timberwolves (26-40)
(22) Warriors (23-43)
(24) Hornets (21-45)
(23) Raptors (23-43)
(25) Kings (22-44)
(29) Wizards (20-46)
(27) Pistons (25-42)
(28) Nets (22-44)
(26) Wizards (21-45)
(30) Bobcats (7-59)
It’s the playoffs! So – quick looks at your first round series are in order:
(E1) Bulls v (E8) Sixers – This is #1 vs #5. What a matchup! However, the Sixers have really stumbled down the stretch, but the metrics have been strong as the Sixers blowouts early still have resonance. The Bulls with Derrick Rose’s dicey injury situation could be great – but they could be tricky. Defense will be the order of the day (#2 v #3) and neither team is great from outside. I can’t imagine the Bulls losing this but the Sixers match up well with them, better than they do with the Heat. Bulls in 7
(E4) Celtics v (E5) Hawks – #7 vs #8. Interestingly here the lower seed has home court. The Celtics have been very strong down the stretch. But so have the Hawks, both in the Top 6 since the trade deadline. The Celtics have serious issues with rebounding and size, but the Hawks are 26th in offensive rebounding, so it is hard to read that as a huge edge. The games have all been close in their head to head. Really more of a coin flip than the experts purport. Hawks in 7
(E2) Heat v (E7) Knicks – #4 vs #13 Fun series with two defensively adept teams. Anthony and LeBron will be a great matchup and the Novak/Smith bench for the Knicks could explode. But it is hard to envision the Knicks winning in Miami. This is a fun series but Heat in 6
(E3) Pacers v (E6) Magic – The Pacers have the 5th best record in the league but merely #14 in rankings. This describes the Pacers in general – a nice team, lot of good players, but is this the juice to win a playoff series? The Magic will be motivated with no Dwight Howard and “nobody believing in them”. Did the Pacers more competitive than it seemed result vs Chicago last year inform them or will the Magic’s winning experience do it? Without Glen Davis, the Magic just don’t have enough players now – good or otherwise. Pacers in 5
(W1) Spurs v (W8) Jazz – Spurs can flat out score, but the Jazz can attack with size. Will the Spurs lose in round 1 again? Frankly I’d have more faith in the Jazz if their defense was not so mediocre. Against the buzz saw offense of San Antonio it is tough sledding. Spurs in 5
(W4) Grizzlies v (W5) Clippers – Grizzlies are a sexy pick to upset the apple cart. However this is not last year’s Zach Randolph. Meanwhile the Clippers just have more better players and one of the game’s best all around players and leaders. Look how the Hornets stole 2 games against the Lakers with Chris Paul and nobody – he is just that good. In the playoffs, the stars play more. Lob City is not done yet. Clippers in 6
(W2) Thunder v (W7) Mavericks – Hard series to peg. On paper, Thunder should rip through this. In actuality, Dallas can throw a lot of junk D at them and make the Thunder really work for it. But it won’t be enough. Thunder in 7
(W3) Lakers v (W6) Nuggets – Denver has depth. The Lakers don’t. Denver has speed, and the Lakers have real issues with that. But the Lakers have all the really good players here and their size and ability to dictate in the half court. I hope Denver can make this fun. I think the Lakers grind it out enough. Lakers in 6
Ten or so games left, and things are starting to take shape with some amazing jumps since the trade deadline now that we have some games of data to work with. How have the rankings changed since we last did this?
(1) Thunder (42-15)
(2) Bulls (43-14)
(1) Heat (40-15)
(5) Spurs (40-15)
(4) Sixers (29-27)
(16) Celtics (32-24)
(12) Grizzlies (33-23)
(6) Hawks (34-23)
(7) Lakers (36-22)
(9) Nuggets (31-26)
(8) Magic (34-23)
(14) Rockets (32-25)
(10) Mavericks (31-26)
(15) Knicks (29-27)
(13) Clippers (34-23)
(11) Pacers (35-22)
(17) Blazers (27-31)
(22) Suns (30-27) Timberwolves (22-24)
(19) Bucks (28-29)
(21) Jazz (30-28)
(18) Timberwolves (25-33)
(20) Warriors (22-34)
(25) Raptors (20-38)
(23) Hornets (15-42) Cavaliers (17-26)
(26) Kings (19-38)
(24) Cavaliers (18-36)
(27) Pistons (21-36)
(28) Nets (21-37)
(29) Wizards (13-44)
(30) Bobcats (7-48)
Some notes:
I can hear Jim Ross’ voice now. (seriously – if you could have any announcer for any sporting event of any sort of meaning – JR takes a back seat to nobody) MY GAWD, IS THAT, IT’S THE BOSTON CELTICS!!!! The Celtics surge into relevancy has been staggering, especially as their schedule has started to include playoff team after playoff team. Since the trade deadline Boston is 6th in the league in point differential, and tops in defense allowing a staggering 86 points per average game. How have they done it? Well in terms of personnel, the move of Kevin Garnett to center and Avery Bradley to the starting lineup has created an athletic lineup and allowed Boston to play its best players more frequently. The numbers since the deadline have been amazing, and they have surged into tops in the league for the season. Without a good rebounding squad, Boston has had to defend the shot hard and they have done so leading the league in FG and 3PT percentage, by such a margin that pedestrian shot prevention (20th) has not been an issue. I am not saying they will go anywhere – the offense is still putrid by good team standards- but the defensive surge has given them a chance.
Similarly the Memphis Grizzlies, after a brief hiccup, have started to get well with a very strong stretch and the adding of Zach Randolph to the mix. Their 7th ranking seems a bit high, but really they are being buoyed by their league toughest schedule to date. Also, they – like Boston – are no great shakes offensively. However, the Grizzlies have put together a good defensive team built on volume. The Grizzlies force turnovers and rebound misses. They have the 5th widest gap between their FGs and Opponents on a possession basis. The rugged physical style makes them a fascinating playoff team – though their unwillingness to shoot 3s is a worry. Also, volume dependent teams have had a history of struggling as the teams in front of them go up in quality.
At the moment the Atlantic Division winner is guaranteed a Top 4 seed, while the runners up are no higher than 7th. Put simply, the Sixers’ struggles – a combination of poor offense and some really bad close game luck, has then on the edge of having to play Chicago in Round 1. Boston-Atlanta is a much more benign matchup to say the least. Out west the surging Grizzlies are only 2 games behind the Lakers for 3rd in the conference. The folks in Bristol might have a giant circle jerk if that happens as the Lakers-Clippers 1st round series would become a reality.
Can you believe it? We are already down to the last third of the season. The Bulls even have less than 20 games to go. It feels so abrupt that playoffs and playoff form need to be discussed. Of course we have the trade deadline, and some early after effects. We covered the deals of course here. How have the rankings changed since we last did this?
(1) Heat (34-11)
(2) Bulls (38-10)
(3) Thunder (34-12)
(4) Sixers (26-20)
(5) Spurs (29-14)
(10) Hawks (26-20)
(6) Lakers (28-18)
(11) Magic (29-18)
(8) Nuggets (25-21)
(7) Mavericks (27-20)
(14) Pacers (26-18)
(12) Grizzlies (25-19)
(13) Clippers (27-19)
(15) Rockets (25-22)
(20) Knicks (22-24)
(16) Celtics (24-21)
(9) Blazers (21-25)
(17) Timberwolves (22-24)
(22) Bucks (21-24)
(19) Warriors (18-25)
(18) Jazz (24-22)
(21) Suns (23-23)
(23) Hornets (11-34)
(25) Cavaliers (17-26)
(24) Raptors (15-31)
(26) Kings (17-29)
(28) Pistons (16-29)
(27) Nets (15-32)
(29) Wizards (10-34)
(30) Bobcats (7-37)
Some notes:
Wowee. Some plunge the Blazers have taken. It’s not the losses, but the sheer lack of competitiveness. I personally was surprised they didn’t stop after firing Nate McMillan (who is a terrific coach, but clearly had wore out his welcome). But since the deadline the Blazers have been the worst team in the league. They obviously shook up a lot and pulled a heist trading Gerald Wallace to the Nets. That said, still – a lot of guys have mailed this season in.
Granted the post deadline stats reveal little considering the sample sizes, but the Bucks have clearly benefited from their move. In particular they have been the top offense since the deadline with a staggering 117 points per game (pace adjusted), 8 points better than the Knicks (who have been inspired since their coaching change). But the Bucks are also defending much better, which feels less sustainable given the personnel changes. But the Bucks needed offense, and they needed guys who weren’t injured. The trade has accomplished both from early evidence.
The Bobcats are still awful, and I know nothing about the West aside from the Thunder and Spurs being atop it. The Lakers are 3rd yes, but still a mere 4 games ahead of 9th place. It is very unlikely they miss the playoffs, but not impossible.
Sadly, this year’s deadline passed with several deals but no real earth shattering ones (well except for maybe one). Obviously, Dwight Howard’s flights of fancy put a bunch of teams into chaos. Indeed, Stephen A Smith laughably (any other kind of SAS piece) thought Howard owed the Nets an apology for acting like he has control of his future employment. Hey, if Danny Ainge would pimp out Paul Pierce without even a hint of a qualm, Howard not being straight when he has some pull should be lauded. At least he did not shit on an American city on tv.
But then what are we left with – a bunch of midlevel deals that showed that as long as some teams are managed by dummies and others are not hilarity can ensure. We are also left wondering why the lockout ever took place when some teams still are overpaying schmucks.
Warriors trade Monta Ellis, Kwame Brown and Ekpe Udoh to the Bucks for Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson
It is instructive to note that the Jazz own the Warriors first rounder unless its a top 7 pick. What better way to try to save your draft than trading for guys who can’t play. If this was all the Warriors did it would have been a smart move. Bogut is an elite defensive C and unless he is like Sam Jackson in Unbreakable (given his luck I can’t rule this out) he will return and help them become a far more professional culture on that side of thr floor. But Bogut is hurt so the Warriors, talent starved with the injuries could save their pick with losing.
For the Bucks, they are actually well run, so this move makes sense. Ellis is overrated but has elite scoring in him. The Bucks needed that. Yeah he is an unerringly bad defender, but in GS he will finally be accountable to a coach who does not mail it in on that end. Also the Bucks have guards like Shawn Livingston and Beno Udrih who can check big guards. Udoh is a capable defending big and unlike Bogut he is healthy. Plus this cleans their balance sheet for next season. Shrewd dealing for a small market. Yeah, this is not going to win a title – but they got good controllable players – and that is not trivial, and it could get them into the playoffs over the Knicks.
Warriors trade Stephen Jackson to Spurs for Richard Jefferson and the Spurs 1st Rounder in 2012
If the Warriors stuck with their first move, I’d understand. But alas, they traded instead for a late first round pick and the right to pay Richard Jefferson for a year and 11 million dollars longer than they would have had to pay Stephen Jackson. Sure, Jefferson is a semicompetent pro, but for a tanking strategy (referenced above), it is probably not that helpful. It’s like they studied Sam Presti and Kevin Pritchard’s innovations of renting out cap space for future assets, but did not process it fully. A first rounder is nice, but is the 25th pick worth 11 million bucks? For the Spurs, it clears their 2013 balance sheet up – and Popovich connected with Stephen Jackson during the 2003 rodeo. Jackson will just be part of their wing rotation, but he can fit in there – and more cheaply. There is a reason the Spurs are the Spurs.
Raptors trade Leandro Barbosa to the Pacers for a 2012 2nd round pick; Grizzlies trade Sam Young to the Sixers for the rights to Ricky Sanchez
Two straight salary dumps by teams turn into two decent depth moves for everybody else involved. I have no idea who Ricky Sanchez is, and I am pretty sure you don’t either. Basically he is filler so the Grizzlies can say they acquired something instead of just giving Young away. Young was being blocked in the Memphis rotation - but he is still a player with some sort of value. Thus it is a bit weird to have Philly take him for free. Barbosa represented a salary millstone for Toronto, so the Pacers take him off their hands for the rest of the season. But once again, it’s a money trail not a basketball one – the Pacers get another solid scorer for their very deep team. Neither trade is a homerun, but it is hard to knock them either.
Cavaliers trade Ramon Sessions and Christian Eyenga to the Lakers for Luke Walton and their 2012 1st rounder (from Dallas)
Yippee. The Cavaliers now have four of the top 40 picks in the upcoming 2012 draft. But they are paying Luke Walton 2 years for nothing in order to secure one of the picks. THIS is why the Cavaliers are where they are and the Lakers … well, aren’t. Ramon Sessions is a fringy starting level PG. He sucks defensively, is kind of a pick and roll guy who needs the ball – definitely a non-triangle point man. He is no Derrick Rose. However, the Lakers at the point did not have Derrick Rose. They did not have Derrick Rose, they did not even have Jalen Rose – they had Derek Fisher’s corpse. The Lakers in this move have improved not just a weakness, but one of the worst position situations anybody had in the NBA. To boot, they got Eyenga, the sort of super athletic lottery ticket throw in that baseball guys like Keith Law (I know, I link to his personal blog but you need to be reading that too) wholeheartedly approve of. Eyenga has shown in past cups of coffee that there is some there there. For the Lakers to get a starter, a projectable wing player AND dump Luke Walton’s contract, all for a pick that won’t crack their rotation? The value of a first rounder is real, but it’s not the price the Cavs paid for it – not for a late 1st.
Nets trade Shawne Williams, Mehmet Okur and their 2012 1st Rounder (top 3 protected) to the Blazers for Gerald Wallace
OK. So Gerald Wallace, Marshon Brooks, Jordan Farmar. THIS is what is supposed to keep Deron Williams in town? Really? Once Dwight Howard decided to put off the circus for another year, the Nets really needed to rethink this. Instead, they deal their own pick with very little protection to Portland for Gerald Wallace. Wallace was excellent in Portland last season and good for a while this year until the lockout minutes started to wear him down. He is what he is – a solid midlevel starter. Is this what is supposed to get Deron Williams aroused? Puh-leeze. Fake Prokhorov would have done better.
For the Blazers, I have no idea who is driving the ship. They have struggled in close games, but have clearly tuned out Nate McMillan. Frankly – I though firing Nate was sufficient – the Blazers’ point differential was too good to not try to bet on. I didn’t think the reset button needed to be hit. That said, the Blazers chose this path – and given that, they got a tremendous return for Wallace. Okur is just a salary match, but Shawne Williams has shown he can be a smallball power forward, and that pick is very juicy. This makes sense on a lot of levels, once you take the premise that they have raised the flag on this season.
Blazers trade Marcus Camby to Houston for Jonny Flynn and Hasheem Thabeet and Minnesota’s 2nd Rounder in 2012
The Blazers weren’t done raising the flag. In moving Camby, they get a couple of youngsters to test drive. Yeah, both have been busts in multiple places, but they are still young and their contracts expire at the end of the season – no obligation to purchase. Moving Camby also potentially moves LaMarcus Aldridge to center, where he plays his best anyway. For the Rockets, Camby is expiring – their balance sheet stays the same, their cap next season is ok, and Camby is still a quality big man who can defend, rebound and pass. The Rockets need more toughness inside – Camby fits the bill. This is the case of two good organizations (Portland in spite of itself) doing something smart together.
Wizards get Nene from the Nuggets, Brian Cook and a future 2nd rounder from the Clippers … Nuggets receive Javale McGee and Ronny Turiaf from the Wizards … the Clippers get Nick Young fron the Wizards
I live outside of Washington, DC. I totally get why the Wizards wanted to dump these guys. Young is one of the biggest knuckleheads in the league. Javale McGee might be THE biggest knucklehead in the league:
Combined their IQ is about 20 and they think that a good game involves chucking 20 shots. However, there is your enmity towards your guys versus an honest valuation. As such, Ernie Grunfeld and the Wizards front office seriously whiffed here. These guys are morons – but they are also talented and young, and have real value. For example, Javale McGee – with the hoops IQ of a dung beetle – is averaging 12 points, 9 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in 27 minutes a game … and he is 24! Imagine if he actually knew what he was doing? The Wizards did not show an ability to separate what he isn’t from what he is. So instead they deal him for Nene, a good big man, but with limited upside and a long contract. Is Nene really going to be better than McGee in three years? Maybe, but I doubt it – and that he is better now offers no solace, not with a team as far away as the Wizards are.
For the Clippers, this is a phenomenal move – getting a floor spacer for free. Nick Young can’t do much on the basketball court, but he can shoot and score. That is precisely what the Clippers need – so to rent him for the rest of the season for what amounts to Brian Cook’s corpse and a pick they will not miss? This is a total no-brainer.
Denver of course, craves depth and athleticism. Ronny Turiaf provides both as a very willing hustling backup power forward. But of course Javale McGee is the lottery ticket here. We know he is 24, and very productive considering he doesn’t know what he is doing and has been basking in a quagmire of a basketball culture which has not challenged him to be better. George Karl, on the other hand, is a real basketball coach who will push McGee and hold him accountable to his teammates and to his own talent. I’m not saying Karl and McGee will connect, but McGee is the type of otherworldly talent you watch and wonder what could happen with a real coach, and a culture that demands his best. Now we’ll get to find out.
Blazers fire Nate McMillan
Look at the stinkers the Blazers have put up lately. Nate did a great job there in chaotic circumstances, but clearly time for a new voice.
Mike D’Antoni resigns as Knicks coach
Apparently Stephen A Smith’s tour in Philadelphia made him think that a superstar chucking at 40% needs more shots. But really, Anthony’s ghastly numbers have impacted the Knicks much more than anything D’Antoni has done. His reputation and track record as a coach speaks for itself. It is fun to make fun of him and cast those Phoenix teams as akin to Don Nelson’s Warriors but that is a criminal undervaluation. (60 wins a year vs fringy playoffs!) The Knicks might improve maybe – but I doubt it. Not when Melo and Stoudemire have given them so little while being paid like they are worth a lot.
One of the vestiges of this terribly accelerated NBA season is how quickly we are around the bend. The Bulls to wit have played 40 of the 66 games now, 60% of the schedule. Considering how late we started, it really has felt like an avalanche, so we have playoff races to attend to. How have the rankings changed since we last did this?
(1) Heat (28-9)
(3) Bulls (32-8)
(2) Thunder (30-8)
(4) Sixers (22-17)
(5) Spurs (25-12)
(10) Lakers (23-14)
(6) Mavericks (22-17)
(8) Nuggets (22-17)
(9) Blazers (19-19)
(7) Hawks (22-15)
(11) Magic (25-14)
(14) Grizzlies (22-15)
(12) Clippers (23-14)
(15) Pacers (23-13)
(13) Rockets (21-17)
(16) Celtics (19-17)
(17) Timberwolves (19-19)
(19) Jazz (18-19)
(18) Warriors (15-20)
(22) Knicks (18-19)
(22) Suns (17-20)
(20) Bucks (15-23)
(23) Hornets (9-29)
(25) Raptors (12-26)
(24) Cavaliers (13-23)
(26) Kings (12-26)
(27) Nets (12-26)
(28) Pistons (12-26)
(29) Wizards (8-29)
(30) Bobcats (4-31)
Some notes:
While the East playoff picture is coming into focus as far as the 8 teams who will be standing at the end of the season (sure the Bucks can rally but it’s not likely, not when their defense is an un-Skiles like 21st), the West is very much a free for all. Consider the Top 8 as of this writing:
Thunder (2nd in power rankings)
Spurs (5th)
Clippers (13th)
Lakers (6th)
Grizzlies (12th)
Mavericks (7th)
Nuggets (8th)
Rockets (15th)
Timberwolves (17th)
Blazers (9th)
Jazz (18th)
So the Rockets cannot feel safe. Portland has the 2nd highest scoring margin in the West, and at 9th overall – they have outperformed their record. Portland has an ungodly bad record in close games – and that is usually a function of luck – and that should start to turn around. On the other hand, the Jazz and Timberwolves are recordwise in a position to rally but the performance compared the the Blazers is not nearly as optimistic. Should be fun down the stretch.
With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff. How have the rankings changed since we last did this?
(2) Heat (25-7)
(4) Thunder (25-7)
(1) Bulls (26-8)
(3) Sixers (20-12)
(5) Spurs (23-9)
(9) Mavericks (20-12)
(6) Hawks (19-13)
(8) Nuggets (18-15)
(7) Blazers (17-16)
(10) Lakers (19-13)
(15) Magic (21-12)
(11) Clippers (19-11)
(13) Rockets (19-14)
(16) Grizzlies (18-15)
(14) Pacers (19-12)
(12) Celtics (15-16)
(17) Timberwolves (16-17)
(19) Warriors (12-17)
(18) Jazz (15-16)
(20) Bucks (13-20)
(22) Suns (14-19)
(21) Knicks (16-17)
(24) Hornets (7-24)
(23) Cavaliers (12-17)
(25) Raptors (9-23)
(26) Kings (10-21)
(28) Nets (10-24)
(29) Pistons (11-22)
(27) Wizards (7-25)
(30) Bobcats (4-27)
Some notes:
Who is that masked man at #4. As Jim Ross might say, MY GAWD!!! IT’S THE SAN ANTONIO SPURS!! Somehow or another, they are a factor again – rising all the way up to the lofty #5 position. Of course this should not be surprising us anymore – the Spurs decade long run of contendorhood is pretty amazing. What is more interesting though is how stereotypes tend to work. If you dismiss the Spurs – or just don’t think of them – you might lean on what you remember from 2003 and 2007 as to who they are – withering defense and Tim Duncan. However, this team – assembling so many wins against a good schedule – is actually not a good defensive team. It is weird to say that the Spurs are an offensive team – and certainly their below average pace hides the explosiveness – but this is a team that wins by scoring (6th on offense). In particular, they win because they can shoot – 4th in total FG%, 3rd best three point percentage while making the 5th most (per possession) – it carries them to the 5th best true shooting team in the league. The shot generation is average – they don’t recover many of their few misses, but they hardly turn it over so they are getting a solid number of looks. On defense, they actually resemble the 2007 Suns more than the 2007 Spurs, where their real strength is not fouling (tops in the league), allowing the 8th fewest makes from 3 and 2nd in the league in defensive rebounding. They force a lot of 2 point shots and recover misses – which allows their defense to be meh (instead of bad).
And while we get a view of the top with the Spurs, let’s go down low and appreciate the awesome level of badness that is the Charlotte Bobcats. At 4-27, the record is pristine to be sure. They are on pace to win more than the 9-73 rate the 1973 Sixers team did. Indeed, I expect some winning to pick up as Gerald Henderson returns and the other teams start to care less and focus on playoff positioning. This is all crap we know. In the same vein, the Bobcats are currently rating a staggering -10.7 points. Let’s put it this way, the Wizards – also terrible at 7-25, would be nearly 5 point favorites – it’s really that bad. The Bobcats lack of talent is obvious – seriously if Kemba Walker is your beacon of hope (Walker is a nice prospect – but a Vinnie Johnson upside) what can you say? Obviously the Bobcats are the worst offense in the league, alternating poor shooting with poor offensive rebounding. They are the worst at making shots they get, and 23rd in getting shots of any kind. What is a surprise to a degree though is defensively they are also pretty terrible, allowing the 28th best FG% overall and being 2nd from the bottom in forcing turnovers along with a desultory 24th in rebounding. Really the team is just bad in an admirably consistent way. Even the Timberwolves of last year for instance, estimably awful, but capable at recovering misses. Charlotte can’t even do that right.
With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff. How have the rankings changed since we last did this?
(1) Bulls (23-7)
(3) Heat (22-7)
(2) Sixers (20-9)
(4) Thunder (21-6)
(8) Spurs (19-9)
(6) Hawks (18-10)
(5) Blazers (15-13)
(7) Nuggets (16-12)
(13) Mavericks (18-11)
(9) Lakers (16-12)
(11) Clippers (17-9)
(10) Celtics (15-12)
(14) Rockets (16-12)
(12) Pacers (17-10)
(17) Magic (18-11)
(15) Grizzlies (14-14)
(16) Timberwolves (13-16)
(18) Jazz (14-13)
(21) Warriors (11-14)
(19) Bucks (12-16)
(22) Knicks (13-15)
(20) Suns (12-16)
(24) Cavaliers (10-16)
(23) Hornets (5-23)
(25) Raptors (9-20)
(26) Kings (10-17)
(28) Wizards (6-22)
(27) Nets (8-21)
(29) Pistons (8-21)
(30) Bobcats (3-25)
Some notes:
We start with a trip to Oakland and the league’s most Quixotic fans – Warriors fans. For anybody who watched their shocking upset of the Mavericks in 2007, the ability of the fans to lift a team is palpable there – it sounded like the old Chicago Stadium, and that’s saying something. Alas, that upset has been the extent of the highlights on the court. Indeed the last few years we have had bad teams, but entertaining ones that could light up the scoreboard. With Mark Jackson taking over as coach, there was a commitment to a more defense, championship timber club. What is interesting though is that the defensive culture in Golden State is still as lax as ever – while the offense is actually much better. The numbers are a bit muted as these Warriors are middle of the road in terms of pace – but this is the most efficient offense (relative to the league) Golden State has had recently. What is particularly interesting comparing side by side is how little things have changed. They still shoot the three both very well and very frequently. They still don’t get to the line hardly at all – and they are a pretty shaky rebounding team (and indeed substantially worse offensively). However – they take care of the ball a bit better and are shooting their 2-pointers a lot better, enough to be 4th in the league in FG%. This is also though a harbinger of rough times maybe – 2 pt FG% is pretty fickle, and one thinks there might be some regression coming. Scanning the personnel, it is not like there is a huge change in the shape of the offense. The defense as mentioned before is as bad as ever – and they are still a horrendous defensive rebounding side, and are near the bottom in sending opponents to the line. Jackson has the team gambling less defensively – but it has not shown in the final results. The Warriors have a ways to go for the positive changes in ownership to reflect in the product.
Checking in at 18-11, and starting to move up the ladder are the Magic. Of course 2 weeks ago, we left them with a disastrous week, featuring a 56 point outing at Boston and blown 27 point lead hosting Boston (yay Boston). Since then though the Magic have perked up. Really, we always hear about the psychodrama surrounding Dwight Howard – but possibly he has found some contentment (or resignation) in the current situation. Despite the Magic’s offensive issues a couple of weeks back, where they had been struggling was on the defensive end of the floor. Last year the Magic were 3rd in the league defensively despite having very little defensive muscle besides Howard. Earlier in the year the team had been scuffling, but we see them up to 12th now. The Magic in the past have focused on defending without fouling (not gambling) and superior rebounding. This year, the rebounding has been there but the attention to detail in defense has not – but it has improved. Magic up to a reasonable 11th in FG%, and so up their fortunes have come with it.
This week’s edition would be incomplete without noting the jump the Knicks have made. I have no real metric argument here, just a chance to rant a bit on Jeremy Lin. The Knicks themselves are still a shaky offensive team with a surprisingly good defense considering D’Antoni’s reputation (2nd in the league in forced turnovers, 7th in defensive rebounding – they just don’t give up a ton of looks at the basket which makes up for their meh FG%). But Lin of course has had the best first 4 starts in league history. You have to be realistic of course – he is not this good, very few players are. That said, he is 6’3″ 200 lbs – basically Chauncey Billups’ size. He has a lot of steals, rebounds, gets to the line a lot. Unlike most small school kids, he is an elite athlete. He needs to shoot better, but that you can improve. Lin is a rotation caliber PG right now, and the Knicks have none of those – and there is no reason he cannot be a solid starter for a long time.
The big move up this week has been Dallas. At 18-11, it is amazing to see Rick Carlisle cobble together this start despite the issues they had with conditioning and injuries. More amazing is how despite losing Tyson Chandler, the Mavericks have remade themselves into a defensive juggernaut. They are 18-11 against a solid schedule despite being 20th in offense (still not getting to the line, still not getting second shots, but now missing the shots they DO take). Instead the historically underwhelming (or undervalued) Mavs D is carrying them this year. Yeah Odom has sucked on offense, but he is a very useful defender. So is Vince Carter despite his reputation, and Brendan Haywood has successfully impersonated a competent C this year. All that adds up to a team that is 3rd in FG defense and 5th in forcing turnovers. The Mavs are top 10 in TS% and shot prevention – and that has allowed them to survive themselves. Given the reputations and past performances of their top guys on offense – this is nothing but good news for the long term.
