Tag Archives: New Orleans

2012 NFL Update #3

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , ,

The problem with having something giant magically pop up in your life is that the old things slip – like putting an NFL update together in time.  Alas, my neglect of this – especially with the league going to Thursday games.  Obviously with Arizona’s execrable offensive line performance, the lofty perch the Cardinals hold in the pre-Week 4 power rankings will change.  At the same time, there is more of the league to observe, so here is a quick update with the rankings prior to Thursday.  Note that if we added Thursday to the soup the Rams would be #7 and the Cardinals would be #4.

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Texans 4 0 0.627 (4) 21.083 (1) 29
2 Falcons 4 0 0.67 (3) 18.875 (3) 29
3 Cardinals 4 0 0.75 (1) 16.542 (5) 29
4 Ravens 3 1 0.625 (5) 16.25 (6) 27
5 Bears 3 1 0.604 (8) 13.063 (8) 25
6 Patriots 2 2 0.609 (7) 17.625 (4) 24
7 Eagles 3 1 0.677 (2) 3.938 (15) 24
8 Vikings 3 1 0.578 (10) 6.854 (11) 23
9 49ers 3 1 0.623 (6) 15.542 (7) 22
10 Broncos 2 2 0.563 (11) 19.375 (2) 21
11 Bengals 3 1 0.56 (12) 3.875 (16) 19
12 Rams 2 2 0.503 (15) 4.125 (14) 19
13 Seahawks 2 2 0.594 (9) 8 (10) 19
14 Packers 2 2 0.466 (21) 10.646 (9) 18
15 Chargers 3 1 0.554 (13) 3.667 (17) 15
16 Dolphins 1 3 0.499 (16) 4.458 (13) 14
17 Cowboys 2 2 0.498 (17) 2.646 (19) 13
18 Colts 1 2 0.479 (18) -3.333 (26) 12
19 Giants 2 2 0.448 (22) 6.458 (12) 10
20 Jaguars 1 3 0.552 (14) -1.917 (23) 9
21 Lions 1 3 0.429 (23) -2.188 (24) 9
22 Steelers 1 2 0.379 (28) 0 (20) 6
23 Redskins 2 2 0.401 (26) 2.708 (18) 6
24 Jets 2 2 0.467 (20) -2.208 (25) 5
25 Bills 2 2 0.388 (27) -5.042 (28) 3
26 Titans 1 3 0.469 (19) -7.792 (29) 3
27 Browns 0 4 0.411 (25) -3.375 (27) 3
28 Chiefs 1 3 0.417 (24) -7.917 (30) 2
29 Bucs 1 3 0.313 (30) -0.271 (21) 2
30 Panthers 1 3 0.307 (31) -1.188 (22) 1
31 Raiders 1 3 0.368 (29) -9.75 (32) 0
32 Saints 0 4 0.188 (32) -8.042 (31) 0

Some of the usual observations:

  • Despite the intro – the Cardinals 4-0(1) start is still pretty remarkable.  What is particular fascinating is that the entire NFC West is .500 or better – just think that two seasons ago this was the sickest joke in playoff football history.  Season is long, so there is time for this to change, but still.
  • Patriots sagging at 1-2 hung up a 45 point second half over the poor Buffalo Bills.  2-2 is not “fixed” by any means, but the 4th rated scoring margin portends to bigger things ahead.
  • We have talked about the NFC East as a surprise, but clearly the NFL’s biggest shock so far is the 3-1 start enjoyed by the Minnesota Vikings – who were largely expected to stink.  Adrian Peterson’s return has helped a ton, but really it is the development of Christian Ponder into an adequate NFL quarterback and a defense which has largely been good enough.  They have not piled up any of the Bears/Vikings games yet, but a win over Detroit at least for now seems like a nice feather.
  • The disappointment?  Well – it has to be the Saints, though last week represented progress.  Frankly, in prime time with Drew Brees ready to set a record, it would be hard to envision them losing to San Diego – although their defense is horrific enough to allow that possibility.  Can the Saints go 10-2 the rest of the way?  I wouldn’t put it past them, but clearly they are up against it now in the playoff chase.

2012 NFL Update #2

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , , ,

Well, that was something, wasn’t it?  What I can say about the ghastly prime time games involving the Patriots, Ravens, Packers and Seahawks is that, well – it’s unpredictable.  Cris Collinsworth, while the best football analyst on television is also the spearhead of the most visible broadcast, was at his wits end trying not to blurt out that this is pretty ridiculous.  What is fascinating about the scab refs is not that they have screwed up pass interference calls or 100 mph sort of snap judgments – but that they have been so reliably bad at the easy stuff.  We see balls mis-spotted, we see fumble calls being egregiously blown.  The refs are screwing up way worse than you’d expect.  It obviously is reflecting in a product, which has become much more compelling, but in a rather creepy dangerous sort of “what’s gonna happen next” sort of way.

That said, there has been 3 weeks of football in the can, and thus more trends and such.  As the season goes on, the fluctuations in the rankings will shrink – but right now the schedule strength causes a lot of flopping about.  So what of Week 3?

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Falcons 3 0 0.75 (3) 25.667 (1) 30
2 Texans 3 0 0.681 (5) 25.667 (1) 29
3 Cardinals 3 0 0.847 (1) 21 (3) 29
4 Seahawks 2 1 0.764 (2) 16.917 (6) 28
5 Ravens 2 1 0.639 (7) 17 (5) 25
6 Broncos 1 2 0.599 (8) 20.917 (4) 24
7 Jets 2 1 0.553 (14) 10.917 (10) 23
8 Cowboys 2 1 0.678 (6) 8.625 (13) 23
9 Patriots 1 2 0.589 (10) 16 (7) 22
10 Eagles 2 1 0.692 (4) 2.167 (20) 22
11 49ers 2 1 0.567 (11) 9.5 (12) 20
12 Vikings 2 1 0.556 (13) 4.333 (16) 19
13 Packers 1 2 0.53 (15) 13.417 (8) 17
14 Chargers 2 1 0.592 (9) 5.583 (15) 16
15 Giants 2 1 0.508 (16) 11.292 (9) 16
16 Dolphins 1 2 0.502 (17) 8.333 (14) 14
17 Steelers 1 2 0.389 (24) 3.333 (17) 13
18 Bills 2 1 0.484 (18) 3.25 (18) 12
19 Jaguars 1 2 0.561 (12) 2.667 (19) 12
20 Bears 2 1 0.458 (20) 9.917 (11) 12
21 Bucs 1 2 0.444 (21) 1.208 (21) 10
22 Bengals 2 1 0.47 (19) -1.083 (23) 9
23 Chiefs 1 2 0.436 (22) -3.25 (24) 8
24 Colts 1 2 0.433 (23) -4.083 (26) 6
25 Raiders 1 2 0.363 (25) -7.25 (28) 4
26 Lions 1 2 0.347 (28) -6.917 (27) 4
27 Titans 1 2 0.363 (25) -14.5 (31) 3
28 Rams 1 2 0.319 (29) -0.083 (22) 3
29 Browns 0 3 0.361 (27) -8.417 (29) 2
30 Redskins 1 2 0.242 (30) -3.583 (25) 2
31 Panthers 1 2 0.224 (31) -9.042 (30) 1
32 Saints 0 3 0.069 (32) -14.75 (32) 0

Some of the quick thoughts from the week past:

  • You will hear all sorts of doomsday stats about the Saints 0-3 start and how so few teams have made the playoffs after an 0-3 beginning.  Of course these stats are nonsense as far proving that a bad start is fatal – it is more that 0-3 is a harbinger that your team sucks, and THAT is why the 0-3 start is problematic.  It is a sign of league balance that there are only two winless sides at this point.  The Saints start has been particularly troubling as the Redskins, Panthers and Chiefs are by no means a murderer’s row of opposition.  The Browns – well, we knew this all along.
  • The Cardinals as of today certainly earned their lofty ranking.  The dominant victory over the Eagles showed another game where they allowed fewer than 20 points.  The defense – with studs like Patrick Peterson and Darnell Dockett – has been championship timber so far even with the offense being relatively uninspiring.  If this sounds like a familiar formula to win the NFC West, well …
  • On the other hand, the Falcons and Texans are passing the eye test much easier.  The Falcons – football’s boring, stable boyfriend – have shown some duende and force in the early going not yet seen.  Do they have the horsepower to not just be a quality team but a truly fear inducing one?  The Texans, they are just so balanced across the board – although that division might end up inflating their record slightly.  But you can’t quibble with the results so far.

2012 NFL Update #1

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Ahoy mateys! Finally, with Week 2 in the books and all 32 teams having 2 games in the bag – we have enough schedule data to start putting some power rankings together. The methodology and consistent updates are here per usual, but what does the first snapshot of the season look like?

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 49ers 2 0 1 (1) 21.75 (5) 30
2 Cardinals 2 0 0.938 (2) 30.5 (2) 30
3 Seahawks 1 1 0.813 (3) 21.25 (6) 28
4 Packers 1 1 0.763 (5) 20 (7) 27
5 Broncos 1 1 0.75 (6) 26.5 (3) 26
6 Eagles 2 0 0.688 (7) 19.25 (8) 26
7 Falcons 2 0 0.688 (7) 15 (10) 24
8 Texans 2 0 0.625 (10) 36.5 (1) 22
9 Ravens 1 1 0.688 (7) 24.5 (4) 22
10 Steelers 1 1 0.563 (12) 16.5 (9) 20
11 Lions 1 1 0.813 (3) 10.5 (13) 19
12 Dolphins 1 1 0.5 (15) 14 (11) 17
13 Bears 1 1 0.563 (12) 6.25 (16) 15
14 Rams 1 1 0.5 (15) 8.25 (14) 15
15 Jets 1 1 0.438 (18) 11.5 (12) 14
16 Patriots 1 1 0.563 (12) 4.5 (18) 13
17 Cowboys 1 1 0.613 (11) 3.75 (20) 13
18 Bucs 1 1 0.438 (18) 5.25 (17) 12
19 Giants 1 1 0.45 (17) -1.75 (23) 11
20 Jaguars 0 2 0.313 (22) 4 (19) 9
21 Chargers 2 0 0.375 (21) 3.5 (21) 9
22 Colts 1 1 0.438 (18) -6.5 (26) 7
23 Raiders 0 2 0.313 (22) -4 (25) 6
24 Bengals 1 1 0.313 (22) -6.75 (27) 5
25 Browns 0 2 0.313 (22) -12 (29) 3
26 Bills 1 1 0.25 (28) -10.5 (28) 2
27 Redskins 1 1 0.238 (30) 7 (15) 2
28 Titans 0 2 0.313 (22) -14.5 (31) 1
29 Panthers 1 1 0.188 (31) 0.5 (22) 1
30 Chiefs 0 2 0.313 (22) -17 (32) 0
31 Vikings 1 1 0.25 (28) -13 (30) 0
32 Saints 0 2 0 (32) -3.75 (24) 0

Obviously – as one could surmise – there is not a lot of data here, just two weeks of quality to evaluate, but that doesn’t mean that there are not things to discuss.

  • Ahoy NFC West!  The 49ers we knew should be good.  But the authoritative wins over Green Bay and Detroit were eye openers.  The combined 2-0 record of opponents obviously overstates the schedule, but not that much.  Seattle and Arizona also have 2-0 schedules.  Arizona’s win at New England ties the Saints loss to the Redskins as the season’s biggest surprise to date.
  • The Saints at #32 are obviously the big surprise in the other direction.  The losses, and truly hideous defensive performances, have taken a lot of the bloom off of the Super Bowl contending rose.  Obviously the coaching staff shakeup has caused some strife – but still, these were not particularly distinguished teams they have lost to.
  • Both Andrew Luck and RG3 look like the real things.  RG3′s results are better so far yes, but his team is more talented, and it is easier I think for a dual threat quarterback to have an early impact.  Griffin’s cool and decision making have been excellent, but Luck has had a lot more put on his shoulders.  The Colts are further behind in development, and he has been given more of the finished NFL offense (somehow I suspect Griffin running option out of the pistol will not last if Shanahan had his druthers).

Dare to be Stupid – Deron Williams Too??? (and more)

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

At first glance, the thesis of Isiah Thomas pulling the strings on the Knicks makes sense.  The Knicks giving up 4/5 of their starting lineup for two players while the Nets gave up less for a better player – that is definitely something Isiah would do.  That cynicism aside, this deal is a bit more complicated.  While we’re at it, we’ll add Golden State into the soup:

The Nets get Deron Williams, Dan Gadzuric and Brandan Wright

The Warriors get Troy Murphy

The Jazz get Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, the Nets unprotected 2011 first round pick and a Top 7 protected pick from the Warriors.  (At this second, the Warriors have the 11th worst record in the league – so there is a half-decent chance the Jazz will get to cash this in.)

The Warriors get Troy Murphy’s expiring salary and were able to dump Brandan Wright – whom they had no plans for, and Dan Gadzuric’s toxic contract.  This was a cap clearing move – hooray them.

For the Jazz, this is a weird deal.  They had considerable leverage with Deron Williams – with Jerry Sloan leaving, it seemed they could have tried to rebuild in a manner to keep him around.  Yet they jumped ship on the deal.  That said, they got a ton back for him.  Devin Harris is a legitimate NBA starting point guard.  Whether he is very good or just solid good is up to the observer – but he is young and he can play.  Derrick Favors is a huge upside big with defensive ability – the Jazz bigs currently are solid upside bigs with no defensive ability.  It’s a complimentary skill set, which we like.

The Nets ultimately are placing a massive bet on the collective bargaining agreement.  If the cap is lowered, or a franchise provision is put in – the Nets will have made out great.  If Deron Williams can just leave willy nilly – this is a ho-ho-horrendous move.  The downside – as Stephen A Smith wrote in his usual “I wrote this in crayon” sort of way:

Next season is an entirely different matter, specifically because Williams will be in the last year of his deal and can opt out of his contract in 2012. The disaster scenario is staring Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov squarely in the face. It’s a scenario that could have Williams, from a vantage point just across the Hudson River, witnessing the resurgence of a Knicks franchise inching to within an All-Star point guard of legitimate championship contention. Now imagine Williams as the missing piece, with Gotham City clamoring for his arrival.

Actually – maybe he wrote it in magazine clippings like mass murderers on TV movies do, but I digress.  That is the obvious downside – that Deron Williams takes his show somewhere else because he does not want to wait for Team Rocka to show up in Crooklyn in two years.  But with the rumbles on the labor front – there is a better chance the Nets will keep Williams than there is that he will be anywhere else – and certainly better than the odds of Stephen A’s wet dream coming true.

The Nets are not close to a title from this move.  But then, neither are the Knicks despite bleating to the contrary.  (if they manned up and dealt Chauncey for Steve Nash, things might change)  But in the long run, they have a bit more movement potential than the Knicks do.  Either way, it will be interesting.

************************************************************************

A smaller trade of note, something more in the line of what you’d expect around the deadline, a pseudo-contender trying to position themselves:

Hornets get Carl Landry

Kings get Marcus Thornton and $$$

For the Hornets, they want to win as much as possible while they still have Chris Paul.  Carl Landry gives them a potentially huge weapon for their desperately thin frontcourt.  Off the bench, he was brilliant for the Rockets in the past – he can do that here.

For the Kings, they get a fun bench gunner and a lot of money.  I have nothing else to add.

2010 NFL Power Rankings – Final

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Well, one week of the playoffs is already in the can … that said, for posterity’s sake, here are the final numbers:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Patriots 14 2 0 17.09 3.481 2 1
2 Packers 10 6 0 13.324 2.745 6 3
3 Steelers 12 4 0 12.965 2.653 9 4
4 Falcons 13 3 0 10.79 1.353 22 5
5 Chargers 9 7 0 9.833 0.833 24 2
6 Ravens 12 4 0 8.99 1.803 16 7
7 Jets 11 5 0 8.251 2.329 11 8
8 Eagles 10 6 0 7.571 2.164 12 6
9 Saints 11 5 0 6.634 0.29 28 9
10 Colts 10 6 0 6.559 1.872 14 10
11 Bears 11 5 0 6.182 1.666 20 13
12 Raiders 8 8 0 4.792 1.495 21 15
13 Giants 10 6 0 4.647 0.475 25 11
14 Titans 6 10 0 4.588 1.854 15 12
15 Lions 6 10 0 3.851 2.851 5 16
16 Chiefs 10 6 0 3.771 -0.479 30 14
17 Bucs 10 6 0 3.59 0.403 27 21
18 Texans 6 10 0 1.895 2.458 10 19
19 Dolphins 7 9 0 1.302 3.302 3 17
20 Cowboys 6 10 0 1.125 1.797 17 20
21 Browns 5 11 0 0.733 2.671 7 18
22 Bengals 4 12 0 0.317 3.755 1 27
23 Vikings 6 10 0 0.218 2.656 8 24
24 49ers 6 10 0 -0.447 0.459 26 28
25 Redskins 6 10 0 -0.87 1.974 13 26
26 Rams 7 9 0 -1.355 -0.871 31 25
27 Jaguars 8 8 0 -1.423 0.952 23 22
28 Bills 4 12 0 -3.284 3.231 4 23
29 Seahawks 7 9 0 -3.974 0.151 29 29
30 Broncos 4 12 0 -4.008 1.773 18 30
31 Cardinals 5 11 0 -8.242 -0.945 32 31
32 Panthers 2 14 0 -9.675 1.732 19 32

If we used the raw numbers from this thing for the wild card round, we would have had (without adjusting for home field):

Saints by 10.6 over the Seahawks, Jets by 1.8 over the Colts, Ravens by 5.2 over the Chiefs, Packers by 5.7 over the Eagles.  Pat on the back for me, even if my picks did not make the mark!

For the record, incorporating the Week 18 results, the raw numbers for this weekends matchups (the delta in “margin”):

Steelers by 2.8 over the Ravens, Packers by 2.6 over the Falcons, Patriots by 8.7 over the Jets, Bears by 9.3 over the Seahawks … picks to come later in the week

 

2010 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Wow, it HAS been a while, hasn’t it? Anyhoo, Happy New Year to this teeny tiny following here, and I hope that your holidays have been good. Writing from India, obviously great blogging time has been intermittent. (Thus the dearth of power rankings) Of course, there will be posts covering that adventure forthcoming.

However, there is the business at hand, the wild card round and the four matches. With time a wastin before my flight tonight, time to get some wrong picks out there. This way if I am wrong, I have to be accountable – I did not attend Tom Coughlin’s school of blame shifting.

New Orleans Saints (-10.5) at Seattle Seahawks: It is hard for this to not offend my sensibility. The Seahawks of Pete Carroll, by virtue of their location in the truly execrable NFC West, rode a 7-9 record to a home game against the Saints. The Saints are considerable still, though lacking the creds of last year, in particular a decimated running back corps. The defense has been less turnover strong than a year ago. But come on! Even with home field, the Seabags were one of the league’s worst most of the season, and they were debating QBs for the game. The only question is if the Saints cover. Saints 34, Seahawks 17

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5): Rematch of last year’s AFC title game. The Jets are better, the Colts are worse. Now, the Jets have issues running consistently, while Mark Sanchez is beat up at quarterback. The defense is strong though. However the blitz heavy defense is made to order for Peyton Manning if his line can block. And they’ll have to with their injuries at skill positions and their near total inability to run. Peyton can make any prognosticator look bad, but the Jets have to be smarter in their defense this season, especially with a stronger cornerback tandem. Few points but Jets 20, Colts 14

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5): Rematch of week 1, but this might as well not be. That Eagle team thought Kevin Kolb would be starting. Instead we have the force of nature that is Mike Vick back in the playoffs for the first time in 6 seasons. The Eagles are the most dynamic offense in the league with unmatched big play ability from both passing and running avenues. The Packers have a big play defense and their own force of nature in Aaron Rodgers quarterbacking, but a line that gives him little help, and a total inability to run the football. The Eagles defense makes plays but gives points up, while their return and kicking game require no explanation. Anyway, this is clearly the best game of the weekend. The Eagles do just enough. Eagles 31, Packers 28

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs: The playoffs are back in Kansas City, which is neat. And this team is in line with what the 90s Martyball teams would love – running hard, passing smart, strong defense. Baltimore clearly is an elite team, especially when they keep the offense focused around Ray Rice like they did in their win over the Saints in Week 15. The defense gets the ink, but they have given up big ground games to opponents much of the year. In a lot of ways this is an offense driven Raven team between Flacco, Rice and their depth at receiver. Baltimore scares me as a Patriots fan but they have to advance first, and the Chiefs might be the wrong matchup. This is no fun without calling a surprise. Chiefs 23, Ravens 20

2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 6

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , ,

Six weeks are in the books. On one hand, the best teams have not been clarified (though we are learning) – but the truly bad is starting to emerge. That said, the Knicks are piling up wins – and the Pacers remain interesting. As always, the methodology is here:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Heat 14 8 103.436 (5) 94.6 (4) 1.432 2.587 (5) 12.855
2 Celtics 16 4 103.069 (6) 93.245 (1) 1.75 1.27 (22) 12.843
3 Spurs 17 3 105.101 (3) 96.709 (9) 1.575 1.162 (26) 11.128
4 Mavericks 16 4 101.863 (9) 95.305 (5) 1.575 2.553 (6) 10.687
5 Lakers 14 6 106.387 (1) 98.237 (12) 1.575 -0.139 (28) 9.586
6 Magic 15 6 101.269 (12) 94.476 (2) 1.5 1.195 (25) 9.488
7 Jazz 16 6 101.544 (10) 97.252 (10) 1.432 2.086 (13) 7.809
8 Bulls 11 8 98.718 (18) 96.634 (8) 1.842 3.405 (1) 7.331
9 Hornets 13 7 98.314 (20) 95.549 (6) 1.75 2.729 (4) 7.244
10 Nuggets 13 6 102.787 (7) 100.048 (15) 1.474 2.277 (12) 6.49
11 Hawks 14 8 101.468 (11) 98.546 (13) 1.75 1.274 (21) 5.945
12 Pacers 10 9 98.759 (17) 96.394 (7) 1.658 1.727 (18) 5.749
13 Suns 11 9 106.095 (2) 106.46 (30) 1.925 2.835 (3) 4.395
14 Knicks 13 9 104.093 (4) 102.039 (20) 2.068 -0.356 (30) 3.766
15 Sixers 6 14 97.775 (22) 97.521 (11) 1.925 1.261 (23) 3.44
16 Thunder 14 8 101.008 (13) 101.861 (19) 1.75 2.283 (11) 3.18
17 Rockets 7 13 102.187 (8) 103.519 (27) 2.1 2.394 (9) 3.162
18 Bucks 7 13 93.002 (30) 94.573 (3) 1.75 2.971 (2) 3.15
19 Bobcats 7 13 97.935 (21) 98.822 (14) 1.925 1.903 (16) 2.941
20 Blazers 9 11 98.872 (16) 100.21 (16) 2.1 0.985 (27) 1.747
21 Grizzlies 8 14 98.543 (19) 101.64 (18) 1.75 2.422 (7) 1.075
22 Raptors 8 13 99.695 (14) 102.738 (21) 1.667 2.409 (8) 1.033
23 Warriors 8 12 99.301 (15) 102.981 (23) 1.925 1.215 (24) -0.54
24 Nets 6 15 96.544 (25) 101.628 (17) 1.833 1.841 (17) -1.409
25 Timberwolves 5 16 96.246 (27) 102.989 (24) 2 2.285 (10) -2.459
26 Pistons 7 14 97.222 (23) 103.191 (25) 1.833 1.429 (20) -2.707
27 Clippers 5 17 96.805 (24) 104.685 (28) 1.591 2.065 (15) -4.224
28 Wizards 6 13 96.381 (26) 104.759 (29) 1.842 2.081 (14) -4.455
29 Cavaliers 7 13 94.214 (29) 103.501 (26) 1.75 1.66 (19) -5.877
30 Kings 4 15 94.855 (28) 102.975 (22) 1.474 -0.254 (29) -6.901

So the Heat are back at #1, mostly through a solid winning streak pounding some meh opposition. At the same time, that’s what is supposed to happen right?

  • After their fast start, the Hornets have slipped back to some version of normalcy at #9.  What is interesting is that for the hullaballoo made of getting Trevor Ariza and becoming more athletic, they are not exactly an up tempo team.  Frankly, with the best  point guard on earth, you’d expect a great offense, but New Orleans is actually a fairly pedestrian 20th.  Looking at their quality and quantity stats, it is noted that they are 26th in the  league at generating shots, between their 28th best offensive rebounding rate and a decent, but not special turnover rate.  They have to shoot very well (like the Celtics, another low quantity team) to be a good offense, but their 16th ranked true shooting percentage holds it back.  What HAS worked for them is defense.  Right now they place an estimable 6th – a combination of the 9th best true shooting defense and the 5th best shot prevention team.  They force enough turnovers and prevent second shots well enough to limit scoring chances, and the scoring chances they allow, are defended well.  In the long run, the offense needs to improve to be a serious threat to the top – especially a team like the Lakers who are so good at both shooting and generating looks.

NFL Power Rankings – Week 11

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , ,

Three teams share the lead with an 8-2 record.  None of them are #1.  As always, a combination of scoring margin and opponents’ scoring margin:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Packers 7 3 0 13.456 1.781 15 2
2 Steelers 7 3 0 13.025 4.5 2 4
3 Eagles 7 3 0 10.894 3.694 5 5
4 Falcons 8 2 0 10.161 2.311 12 7
5 Titans 5 5 0 9.703 2.178 13 1
6 Patriots 8 2 0 9.581 3.256 8 6
7 Jets 8 2 0 9.542 1.692 17 3
8 Ravens 7 3 0 8.592 0.992 19 10
9 Chargers 5 5 0 8.331 0.431 26 9
10 Colts 6 4 0 8.067 0.767 23 8
11 Saints 7 3 0 5.429 -2.121 32 15
12 Giants 6 4 0 5.406 0.831 21 11
13 Browns 3 7 0 5.061 4.711 1 14
14 Bears 7 3 0 5.033 -0.867 28 18
15 Chiefs 6 4 0 4.469 -0.881 29 16
16 Lions 2 8 0 3.844 2.544 11 12
17 Dolphins 5 5 0 2.467 4.317 3 17
18 Raiders 5 5 0 2.453 0.628 24 13
19 Redskins 5 5 0 1.583 3.983 4 23
20 Texans 4 6 0 0.665 3.215 9 24
21 Bucs 7 3 0 0.056 -1.994 31 28
22 Cowboys 3 7 0 0.04 2.165 14 27
23 Vikings 3 7 0 -0.111 3.539 6 19
24 Bills 2 8 0 -0.403 3.322 7 30
25 Broncos 3 7 0 -1.55 3.05 10 21
26 Rams 4 6 0 -1.731 -1.356 30 22
27 Jaguars 6 4 0 -1.858 1.742 16 29
28 Bengals 2 8 0 -2.261 1.689 18 20
29 Seahawks 5 5 0 -2.67 -0.27 27 25
30 49ers 3 7 0 -3.961 0.539 25 26
31 Cardinals 3 7 0 -7.335 0.84 20 31
32 Panthers 1 9 0 -11.119 0.831 22 32

The simple takeaway from this week – the Saints are starting to round into form it seems. That and the Bucs 21-0 win over the 49ers – their best result of the year – did not go unnoticed by the model.

What is also interesting is that while the AFC continues to dominate the Top 10, the NFC is starting to rise to the top, with three of the four top rated teams being NFC entries.  In a year without a dominant outfit, it might very well be that the NFC has the best teams – but the AFC just has many many more good ones.  I mean even the bad AFC teams – like Buffalo, clearly are playing good football now, marked by their shocking comeback over the possibly dead Bengals.

2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 3

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , ,

The Heat of course, lost a couple of times, the Celtics had a big win, and there are no longer any unbeatens in the Association.  How does this manifest itself in the rankings so far?  The method behind the madness is here:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Hornets 8 1 103.513 (7) 93.816 (3) 1.556 5.516 (1) 16.769
2 Heat 6 4 105.662 (3) 96.329 (6) 1.4 4.296 (4) 15.029
3 Celtics 8 2 102.756 (10) 95.554 (4) 2.1 4.235 (5) 13.536
4 Mavericks 7 2 102.836 (9) 95.662 (5) 1.167 2.441 (10) 10.782
5 Magic 7 3 101.247 (15) 92.73 (2) 1.05 0.448 (25) 10.015
6 Spurs 8 1 105 (5) 97.964 (8) 1.556 0.676 (24) 9.267
7 Lakers 8 2 108.585 (1) 100.93 (13) 1.05 0.252 (26) 8.957
8 Bucks 5 5 94.097 (28) 91.455 (1) 1.75 4.454 (3) 8.846
9 Nuggets 5 5 102.363 (11) 100.984 (14) 2.1 5.138 (2) 8.617
10 Bulls 5 3 102.291 (12) 96.851 (7) 0.875 1.274 (19) 7.59
11 Suns 6 4 105.882 (2) 104.285 (27) 1.75 3.613 (7) 6.96
12 Blazers 6 5 103.789 (6) 101.533 (18) 2.227 1.427 (17) 5.91
13 Jazz 7 4 101.592 (13) 101.433 (15) 2.227 1.992 (13) 4.378
14 Hawks 7 4 105.266 (4) 101.487 (17) 1.591 -1.048 (28) 4.322
15 Pacers 4 4 99.835 (18) 99.41 (9) 1.75 1.905 (15) 4.08
16 Sixers 2 8 98.66 (22) 99.85 (11) 2.1 2.801 (9) 3.712
17 Rockets 3 6 101.486 (14) 102.215 (19) 2.333 1.92 (14) 3.524
18 Bobcats 4 7 100.078 (17) 99.818 (10) 1.909 1.013 (21) 3.182
19 Thunder 6 4 103.223 (8) 105.522 (28) 1.4 2.022 (12) 1.122
20 Warriors 7 4 99.244 (21) 100.012 (12) 1.909 -0.189 (27) 0.952
21 Grizzlies 4 7 97.288 (26) 102.275 (21) 1.909 4.028 (6) 0.95
22 Raptors 2 8 99.536 (19) 104.1 (26) 2.1 2.383 (11) -0.081
23 Knicks 3 7 97.822 (24) 101.461 (16) 1.75 0.74 (22) -1.149
24 Pistons 4 7 98.172 (23) 102.587 (23) 2.227 0.697 (23) -1.491
25 Nets 4 6 99.486 (20) 103.63 (24) 1.4 1.179 (20) -1.566
26 Cavaliers 4 5 97.442 (25) 102.578 (22) 1.556 -1.275 (29) -4.855
27 Wizards 2 6 93.44 (30) 102.227 (20) 1.75 1.65 (16) -5.387
28 Timberwolves 3 9 93.477 (29) 103.721 (25) 2.333 1.406 (18) -6.505
29 Clippers 1 10 94.723 (27) 105.797 (29) 1.591 2.958 (8) -6.525
30 Kings 3 6 100.447 (16) 107.321 (30) 1.556 -3.063 (30) -8.381

Some observations about the third week?

  • After two weeks at the top, the rankings could not deny the New Orleans’ Hornets hot start any longer.  Chris Paul has been the league’s best player so far – until he falls apart, that does not seem to be changing.  But moreover, the Hornets (against a very good schedule to date) have succeeded with a good defensive approach.  They are 3rd in total defense, and strong on both the quality and quantity dimensions.  Their true shooting percentage against is 3rd in the league (so they do a good job preventing scoring chances from becoming baskets) and they allow the 6th fewest shots per possession (so they do a good job preventing scoring chances generally).
  • After showing some early evidence that they might be the worst team in recent history, the Timberwolves put together a couple of wins and have started to move up the charts a little bit.  Obviously a move from 30th to 28th is faint praise, but it’s something.  Their offense is still putrid, and is only saved at all by their league leading ability to generate shots (Kevin Love’s 31 and 31 for instance).
  • SPOTLIGHT TEAM:  This week, we check in on the Cleveland Cavaliers since LeBron, well … you know.  They had a fun emotional opening night victory over a Boston team which was playing a second night of a back to back after a jihad with the Heat.  The Cavaliers looked like they could be interesting.  Alas, they have slipped to 26th in the rankings, despite their 4-5 record (they have had a very favorable early schedule).  Their offense is currently 23rd after being 3rd place a year ago.  This is obviously not shocking.  A bit more surprising is that losing LeBron James, not a good three point shooter, their team three point proficiency has plummeted from 2nd in the league a year ago to a very pedestrian 21st.  Add the loss of free throw generation that LeBron took with him, the Cavs true shooting percentage has slipped from 3rd to 22nd.  This more than offsets the small gain in shot quantity they have added (perhaps by playing JJ Hickson more).  Defensively, their dropoff is also not a huge surprise, but for different reasons.  Bron is a great defensive player, but Mike Brown, their fired coach was a great defensive coach.  They have always been stout on that end – it is part of Brown’s DNA coaching under Larry Brown.  What is interesting this year is that their quantity stats are about the same – they force more turnovers, but defensively rebound less effectively – but across the board, their shooting defense is just a lot worse – down from 3rd to 21st in true shooting defense.  Really, this cannot be attributed to LeBron.

2011 NBA Preview: Teams 18-13

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Before we get to the meat, a side note:

  • I only managed to catch the final two fights on UFC 121.  I am normally not a huge MMA guy, but when the top needle mover in the sport is going, I am up for it.  Brock Lesnar since coming over from fake sports (I knew him from WWE) has been a force of nature unlike anything MMA has seen before.  However, Cain Velasquez was the first guy he faced who was legitimately faster than him.  Lesnar came out hot but Velasquez was ready for it and after the initial rush Velasquez beat the living crap out of Lesnar.  What a performance!  Lesnar needs to figure out how to defend himself when he gets sent down – this almost killed him against Carwin.  Also, sadly, Jake Shields sucked – gave me no reason to think that John Fitch does not deserve to UFC’s #1 contender for GSP – as horrible as that sounds.
  • Wow is Lesnar’s chin awful or what?

Now, back to basketball.

As we rise up the rankings, we have passed bad teams, interesting but unripe teams, uninteresting but skilled teams … now we start getting into fringy playoff sides.

18. Indiana Pacers (21st overall in 2010, 26th offense, 14th defense)

Really the Charlotte Bobcats forecast in our previous entry and the next two entries might qualify for the least interesting teams in the league for this season.  They aren’t bad in any sort of customary way, they might even make the playoffs to be a punching bag for a really good side – but I don’t see much sizzle here.  Danny Granger is a terrific player, but clearly more of a #2 than a #1.  Darren Collison is an excellent point guard prospect, and unlike TJ Ford seems to know that passing is a good idea.  Still, is he going to be on the Rose-Rondo-Deron-CP3 sort of future short list?  But then: Brandon Rush, Tyler Hansbrough, Dontae Jones, Roy Hibbert, Mike Dunleavy.  There are a lot of decent players here, but decent is it.  To his credit, Larry Bird recognized the stasis and went for some high ceiling low probability guys in Paul George and Lance Stephenson in the draft.  If some of that works, maybe this is a playoff team and attractive to a free agent with the cap room they have.  But I don’t know.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Paul George reaches his ceiling and Darren Collison is a lot better than I think (and I respect him a lot), while Granger remains a high efficiency scorer.  Really, they might have to join the NBDL too.  This is a potential playoff team, but I don’t see what that potential means.

17. New Orleans Hornets (19th overall in 2010, 16th offense, 22nd defense)

Much drama was had regarding Chris Paul’s flailing about and tacit demanding of a trade.  Really it was part of a very eventful offseason.  Jeff Bower, the GM and interim coach left, the Hornets got someone from the Spurs (always a decent idea) and hired Monte Williams as coach, a lauded assistant I know nothing about.  They traded for Trevor Ariza to give some athleticism and drafted Quincy Pondexter for even more.  The team has some talent, but really they are the West’s Washington Wizards, who placed a lot of high value bets on decent players who did not deserve such faith.  One man’s Caron Butler, put simply, is another’s Peja Stojakovic.  Fortunately for the Hornets, they have some cap room next year, but will they fulfill Chris Paul’s wishes to have a chance to win without him making a pinkie swear promise with somebody?

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: NBA teams are only allowed to play one point guard on the floor with no other players.

16. Phoenix Suns (3rd overall in 2010, 1st offense, 19th defense)

So THIS is the fallout from one of the most joyous seasons in Suns history.  Sure they lost a tough series to the Lakers, but the season was such found money that it is hard to argue the season was nothing but a screaming success.  So they celebrated by losing Amare Stoudemire to the Knicks, bungling the situation so they could not get a giant cap exception.  They then signed Hakim Warrick, traded for Josh Childress and traded for Hedo Turkoglu, one of the ghastliest contracts in the NBA.   Louis Amundsen, their energy big man off their remarkable bench left for Golden State.  The end result is Steve Nash is surrounded by a bevy of small forwards, and a couple of VERY soft big men.  Also gone is the shooting prowess of Leandro Barbosa.  Honestly, I am not sure besides Steve Nash, Jason Richardson and Channing Frye, where the firepower is coming from outside.  Can they play the breakneck pace they always do and shoot well?  Sure.  But their defense, not a strength a year ago (and it actually WAS a strength under D’Antoni) could be earth shatteringly bad.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They somehow match last year’s true shooting percentage and offensive efficiency while Robin Lopez turns into Marcus Camby.  They need to defend marginally well and rebound.  They could majorly overachieve again, but I don’t expect any team that scares away a guy like Steve Kerr to be achieving much of anything.

15. New York Knicks

In a fun coincidence, we follow Mike D’Antoni’s old team with his current one.  On the bad side, the Knicks plan to get LeBron James as a colossal failure.  They had no way of knowing about the pinky swear promise, and as such they built up their fans’ hopes for nothing.  Some have called the offseason an unmitigated disaster.  I am inclined to empathize, but given this – their offseason was actually pretty good.  They signed Amare Stoudemire.  Sure he has no partner in crime, but by not splurging otherwise, there is some possibility to get that guy.  They fleeced Golden State trading David Lee’s one dimensional ass for Anthony Randolph who has Shawn Marion sort of ability dripping off of him.  They signed Raymond Felton to one of the smartest deals of the offseason – while that might not be a perfect fit on the court, he was a great value.  There is not the three point gunning in this lineup to satisfy D’Antoni, but there are the athletes to run, run, run.  The Knicks have the talent to get back into the playoffs at least.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: If the 2005 Suns magic strikes again and these guys all DO become great 3 point gunners.  There are a lot of 129-122 results in this team’s future.  There is no real title hope here, but the entertainment value will be there.

14. Atlanta Hawks (8th overall in 2010, 4th offense, 15th defense)

What is interesting about the Hawks offense is that they basically succeeded by not passing.  Their noted isolation heavy attack relied on shooting a lot and rebounding misses.  They led the league in lowest turnover rate because guys just shot it when they had it.  Their 4th ranked offensive rebounding stat shows how they were efficient.  They did a great job at making sure stuff was heading to the basket, such a great job that they had some slack when the ball did not go in.  That said, this team had great health and a great season off the bench for Jamal Crawford, and Josh Smith is one of the covert best players in the NBA.  Really this is the most predictable outfit in the league.  They are good and durable and playoff caliber.  But they just aren’t good enough to beat top teams in the postseason.  This has shown the last two years with their drubbings in the second round – their isolation offense gets exposed and they have no plan B.  If individual talent fails, what to do?  Allegedly new coach Larry Drew is trying to add some motion, but it’s hard to see them changing much.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: The United States east of Atlanta crumbles and falls into the sea.

13. Denver Nuggets (10th overall in 2010, 6th offense, 16th defense)

Denver is in a weird place in their development.  10th a year ago, some of that can be attributed to George Karl’s bout with cancer.  Really, this side is not significantly different from the team that outplayed the Lakers for five games in 2009 – and is the best foul drawing team in recent history.  However, health, status all of that is in flux.  Does Carmelo Anthony want out?  He has been heard making noises about a pinkie swear promise with Chris Paul, or Meg Ryan or Amy Adams, I don’t know.  But there is some evidence of unrest.  Their desperately thin frontcourt is in even more peril as Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen have significant knee issues.  While Al Harrington (a good pickup) gives them some floor spacing, he hurts their already meh defense.  The team can shoot though, especially if JR Smith can stay more consistent than he has been, and Ty Lawson has all the makings of a star just waiting to escape the cage his coaches have put him in.  Denver could win the title – the talent is there, but this is very much like what a football preview writer might have said about the Minnesota Vikings.  This could REALLY go in any direction.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Carmelo Anthony stops making doe eyes at the East Coast and plays the basketball he is capable of, their thin big rotation stays healthy and Ty Lawson and JR Smith give them a true energizer dream backcourt to supplement what the old hand of Chauncey Billups can offer.  Denver could win 55 games, they could win 35 … I am totally flummoxed.