Tag Archives: New York

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2012 MLB Power Rankings #1

Wow, the first baseball post of the year!  Frankly, I have not been following too too much.  With the respendent NBA and NHL playoffs, it has been easy to ignore.  Also, small sample sizes abound anyway.  It’s hard to make any real statement about your team before Memorial Day anyway.  For what it’s worth, we have decided to try a quantitative ranking this season.  The method is detailed boringly here.  But here is the rankings through today:

Rank Team W L Pythag SOS PythRecent SOSRecent RecRank
1 Los Angeles Dodgers 30 14 0.621 (3) 0.516 (6) 0.52 0.574 3
2 Texas Rangers 27 18 0.688 (1) 0.489 (24) 0.466 0.564 12
3 Toronto Blue Jays 24 21 0.588 (4) 0.499 (18) 0.511 0.551 4
4 Saint Louis Cardinals 25 20 0.65 (2) 0.511 (9) 0.507 0.549 18
5 San Francisco Giants 24 21 0.508 (15) 0.525 (2) 0.568 0.539 2
6 Cleveland Indians 26 18 0.503 (16) 0.502 (15) 0.478 0.537 1
7 Washington Nationals 26 18 0.562 (6) 0.513 (8) 0.508 0.528 13
8 Houston Astros 21 23 0.534 (9) 0.497 (21) 0.528 0.526 6
9 Atlanta Braves 26 20 0.576 (5) 0.509 (10) 0.47 0.525 15
10 Philadelphia Phillies 23 23 0.511 (14) 0.527 (1) 0.476 0.524 10
11 Chicago White Sox 23 22 0.529 (11) 0.504 (11) 0.528 0.521 11
12 Boston Red Sox 22 22 0.533 (10) 0.488 (25) 0.414 0.574 9
13 Anaheim Angels 21 25 0.494 (17) 0.518 (3) 0.537 0.574 7
14 Cincinnati Reds 25 19 0.524 (12) 0.492 (23) 0.503 0.574 8
15 Kansas City Royals 17 26 0.44 (22) 0.5 (17) 0.504 0.574 5
16 Tampa Bay Rays 27 18 0.537 (7) 0.475 (29) 0.383 0.574 19
17 Miami Marlins 24 21 0.483 (18) 0.518 (4) 0.505 0.492 21
18 Baltimore Orioles 28 17 0.535 (8) 0.475 (30) 0.447 0.491 23
19 Detroit Tigers 20 24 0.474 (20) 0.502 (16) 0.498 0.488 17
20 Seattle Mariners 21 26 0.478 (19) 0.487 (26) 0.448 0.487 14
21 Milwaukee Brewers 18 26 0.43 (25) 0.514 (7) 0.534 0.478 16
22 New York Yankees 23 21 0.518 (13) 0.494 (22) 0.457 0.47 30
23 Arizona Diamondbacks 20 25 0.464 (21) 0.503 (14) 0.421 0.469 25
24 Colorado Rockies 16 27 0.44 (23) 0.516 (5) 0.515 0.465 26
25 New York Mets 24 21 0.415 (26) 0.503 (13) 0.551 0.452 27
26 Oakland Athletics 22 23 0.439 (24) 0.497 (20) 0.498 0.451 29
27 San Diego Padres 17 29 0.392 (27) 0.498 (19) 0.512 0.45 24
28 Pittsburgh Pirates 20 24 0.383 (28) 0.486 (27) 0.573 0.444 22
29 Minnesota Twins 15 29 0.332 (30) 0.503 (12) 0.488 0.436 20
30 Chicago Cubs 15 29 0.373 (29) 0.483 (28) 0.531 0.426 28

Obviously it is hard – and probably silly – to dive too big into surprises. What I can say is that the ranked teams with good records tend to suffer from the scoring margin associated with a not so good team. Luck in close games is good for the standings – beats having to win the games again – but it is not something you can predict future success with. Also now with 40 games or so in the book, the last 25% of the schedule (the recent stats) are included – so how a team is playing now matters a bit more. In any case, from early evidence we can derive some overrated/underrated:

Overrated: (22) Yankees, (25) Mets.  Two above .500 teams who are playing like a far inferior side.  Somewhat expected with the Mets, but less so with the Yankees, but the pitching has not gotten better.

Underrated: (8) Astros, (10) Phillies.  Phillies makes sense – the pitching and past performance are worth it.  The Astros have played like a better team than their record.  This is particularly funny since on paper, this looked like the worst non-expansion team in many a moon.  Brad Mills obvious 1st quarter Manager of the Year in the NL.

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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #10 – Final Report and Playoff Preview

First as you have probably seen from the last couple of entries, people still have Cystic Fibrosis – blah blah blah – click here to help …

FINALLY.  The best of the playoff seasons is upon us.  Of course this was after a truly execrable last couple of weeks of the season where teams were playing scrubs shamelessly while still charging full prices.  The Tuesday Celtics-Heat game was a particular atrocity.  So the rankings could be skewed a tiny bit.  But whatever, the playoffs are here and looks at the series are coming up … how have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (2) Bulls (50-16)
  2. (4) Spurs (50-16)
  3. (1) Thunder (47-19)
  4. (3) Heat (46-20)
  5. (5) Sixers (35-31)
  6. (10) Nugggets (38-28)
  7. (6) Celtics (39-27)
  8. (8) Hawks (40-26)
  9. (7) Grizzlies (41-25)
  10. (15) Clippers (40-26)
  11. (13) Mavericks (36-30)
  12. (9) Lakers (41-25)
  13. (14) Knicks (36-30)
  14. (16) Pacers (42-24)
  15. (11) Magic (37-29)
  16. (12) Rockets (34-32)
  17. (18) Suns (33-33)
  18. (20) Jazz (36-30)
  19. (19) Bucks (31-35)
  20. (17) Blazers (28-38)
  21. (21) Timberwolves (26-40)
  22. (22) Warriors (23-43)
  23. (24) Hornets (21-45)
  24. (23) Raptors (23-43)
  25. (25) Kings (22-44)
  26. (29) Wizards (20-46)
  27. (27) Pistons (25-42)
  28. (28) Nets (22-44)
  29. (26) Wizards (21-45)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-59)

It’s the playoffs!  So – quick looks at your first round series are in order:

  • (E1) Bulls v (E8) Sixers – This is #1 vs #5.  What a matchup!  However, the Sixers have really stumbled down the stretch, but the metrics have been strong as the Sixers blowouts early still have resonance.  The Bulls with Derrick Rose’s dicey injury situation could be great – but they could be tricky.  Defense will be the order of the day (#2 v #3) and neither team is great from outside.  I can’t imagine the Bulls losing this but the Sixers match up well with them, better than they do with the Heat.  Bulls in 7
  • (E4) Celtics v (E5) Hawks – #7 vs #8.  Interestingly here the lower seed has home court.  The Celtics have been very strong down the stretch.  But so have the Hawks, both in the Top 6 since the trade deadline.  The Celtics have serious issues with rebounding and size, but the Hawks are 26th in offensive rebounding, so it is hard to read that as a huge edge.  The games have all been close in their head to head.  Really more of a coin flip than the experts purport.  Hawks in 7
  • (E2) Heat v (E7) Knicks – #4 vs #13 Fun series with two defensively adept teams.  Anthony and LeBron will be a great matchup and the Novak/Smith bench for the Knicks could explode.  But it is hard to envision the Knicks winning in Miami.  This is a fun series but Heat in 6
  • (E3) Pacers v (E6) Magic – The Pacers have the 5th best record in the league but merely #14 in rankings.  This describes the Pacers in general – a nice team, lot of good players, but is this the juice to win a playoff series?  The Magic will be motivated with no Dwight Howard and “nobody believing in them”. Did the Pacers more competitive than it seemed result vs Chicago last year inform them or will the Magic’s winning experience do it?  Without Glen Davis, the Magic just don’t have enough players now – good or otherwise.  Pacers in 5
  • (W1) Spurs v (W8) Jazz – Spurs can flat out score, but the Jazz can attack with size.  Will the Spurs lose in round 1 again?  Frankly I’d have more faith in the Jazz if their defense was not so mediocre.  Against the buzz saw offense of San Antonio it is tough sledding.  Spurs in 5
  • (W4) Grizzlies v (W5) Clippers – Grizzlies are a sexy pick to upset the apple cart.  However this is not last year’s Zach Randolph.  Meanwhile the Clippers just have more better players and one of the game’s best all around players and leaders.  Look how the Hornets stole 2 games against the Lakers with Chris Paul and nobody – he is just that good.  In the playoffs, the stars play more.  Lob City is not done yet.  Clippers in 6
  • (W2) Thunder v (W7) Mavericks – Hard series to peg.  On paper, Thunder should rip through this.  In actuality, Dallas can throw a lot of junk D at them and make the Thunder really work for it.  But it won’t be enough.  Thunder in 7
  • (W3) Lakers v (W6) Nuggets – Denver has depth.  The Lakers don’t.  Denver has speed, and the Lakers have real issues with that.  But the Lakers have all the really good players here and their size and ability to dictate in the half court.  I hope Denver can make this fun.  I think the Lakers grind it out enough.  Lakers in 6
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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #5

With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (1) Bulls (23-7)
  2. (3) Heat (22-7)
  3. (2) Sixers (20-9)
  4. (4) Thunder (21-6)
  5. (8) Spurs (19-9)
  6. (6) Hawks (18-10)
  7. (5) Blazers (15-13)
  8. (7) Nuggets (16-12)
  9. (13) Mavericks (18-11)
  10. (9) Lakers (16-12)
  11. (11) Clippers (17-9)
  12. (10) Celtics (15-12)
  13. (14) Rockets (16-12)
  14. (12) Pacers (17-10)
  15. (17) Magic (18-11)
  16. (15) Grizzlies (14-14)
  17. (16) Timberwolves (13-16)
  18. (18) Jazz (14-13)
  19. (21) Warriors (11-14)
  20. (19) Bucks (12-16)
  21. (22) Knicks (13-15)
  22. (20) Suns (12-16)
  23. (24) Cavaliers (10-16)
  24. (23) Hornets (5-23)
  25. (25) Raptors (9-20)
  26. (26) Kings (10-17)
  27. (28) Wizards (6-22)
  28. (27) Nets (8-21)
  29. (29) Pistons (8-21)
  30. (30) Bobcats (3-25)

Some notes:

  1. We start with a trip to Oakland and the league’s most Quixotic fans – Warriors fans.  For anybody who watched their shocking upset of the Mavericks in 2007, the ability of the fans to lift a team is palpable there – it sounded like the old Chicago Stadium, and that’s saying something.  Alas, that upset has been the extent of the highlights on the court.  Indeed the last few years we have had bad teams, but entertaining ones that could light up the scoreboard.  With Mark Jackson taking over as coach, there was a commitment to a more defense, championship timber club.  What is interesting though is that the defensive culture in Golden State is still as lax as ever – while the offense is actually much better.  The numbers are a bit muted as these Warriors are middle of the road in terms of pace – but this is the most efficient offense (relative to the league) Golden State has had recently.  What is particularly interesting comparing side by side is how little things have changed.  They still shoot the three both very well and very frequently.  They still don’t get to the line hardly at all – and they are a pretty shaky rebounding team (and indeed substantially worse offensively).  However – they take care of the ball a bit better and are shooting their 2-pointers a lot better, enough to be 4th in the league in FG%.  This is also though a harbinger of rough times maybe – 2 pt FG% is pretty fickle, and one thinks there might be some regression coming.  Scanning the personnel, it is not like there is a huge change in the shape of the offense.  The defense as mentioned before is as bad as ever – and they are still a horrendous defensive rebounding side, and are near the bottom in sending opponents to the line.  Jackson has the team gambling less defensively – but it has not shown in the final results.  The Warriors have a ways to go for the positive changes in ownership to reflect in the product.
  2. Checking in at 18-11, and starting to move up the ladder are the Magic.  Of course 2 weeks ago, we left them with a disastrous week, featuring a 56 point outing at Boston and blown 27 point lead hosting Boston (yay Boston).  Since then though the Magic have perked up.  Really, we always hear about the psychodrama surrounding Dwight Howard – but possibly he has found some contentment (or resignation) in the current situation.  Despite the Magic’s offensive issues a couple of weeks back, where they had been struggling was on the defensive end of the floor.  Last year the Magic were 3rd in the league defensively despite having very little defensive muscle besides Howard.  Earlier in the year the team had been scuffling, but we see them up to 12th now.  The Magic in the past have focused on defending without fouling (not gambling) and superior rebounding.  This year, the rebounding has been there but the attention to detail in defense has not – but it has improved.  Magic up to a reasonable 11th in FG%, and so up their fortunes have come with it.
  3. This week’s edition would be incomplete without noting the jump the Knicks have made.  I have no real metric argument here, just a chance to rant a bit on Jeremy Lin.  The Knicks themselves are still a shaky offensive team with a surprisingly good defense considering D’Antoni’s reputation (2nd in the league in forced turnovers, 7th in defensive rebounding – they just don’t give up a ton of looks at the basket which makes up for their meh FG%).  But Lin of course has had the best first 4 starts in league history.  You have to be realistic of course – he is not this good, very few players are.  That said, he is 6’3″ 200 lbs – basically Chauncey Billups’ size.  He has a lot of steals, rebounds, gets to the line a lot.  Unlike most small school kids, he is an elite athlete.  He needs to shoot better, but that you can improve.  Lin is a rotation caliber PG right now, and the Knicks have none of those – and there is no reason he cannot be a solid starter for a long time.
  4. The big move up this week has been Dallas.  At 18-11, it is amazing to see Rick Carlisle cobble together this start despite the issues they had with conditioning and injuries.  More amazing is how despite losing Tyson Chandler, the Mavericks have remade themselves into a defensive juggernaut.  They are 18-11 against a solid schedule despite being 20th in offense (still not getting to the line, still not getting second shots, but now missing the shots they DO take).  Instead the historically underwhelming (or undervalued) Mavs D is carrying them this year.  Yeah Odom has sucked on offense, but he is a very useful defender.  So is Vince Carter despite his reputation, and Brendan Haywood has successfully impersonated a competent C this year.  All that adds up to a team that is 3rd in FG defense and 5th in forcing turnovers.  The Mavs are top 10 in TS% and shot prevention – and that has allowed them to survive themselves.  Given the reputations and past performances of their top guys on offense – this is nothing but good news for the long term.
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2011 NFL Power Rankings #8

Sorry. Not much time to write about the NFL this week. You know how this works – here is the table. Yeah yeah the Giants are under-ranked. The good teams will start to improve their ranking, but the climb has just started presumably.

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Packers 8 0 0.749 (1) 15.991 (1) 31
2 49ers 7 1 0.682 (2) 14.661 (2) 30
3 Ravens 6 2 0.654 (3) 14.336 (3) 29
4 Lions 6 2 0.626 (5) 13.933 (4) 28
5 Saints 6 3 0.615 (6) 8.45 (10) 27
6 Patriots 5 3 0.582 (10) 10.375 (7) 24
7 Jets 5 3 0.598 (7) 9.552 (9) 23
8 Bears 5 3 0.581 (11) 10.371 (8) 23
9 Bills 5 3 0.563 (14) 10.571 (6) 21
10 Bengals 6 2 0.627 (4) 8.038 (11) 20
11 Texans 6 3 0.57 (13) 10.879 (5) 19
12 Steelers 6 3 0.576 (12) 7.342 (13) 19
13 Falcons 5 3 0.591 (9) 6.628 (14) 19
14 Raiders 5 4 0.523 (15) -0.54 (24) 17
15 Cowboys 4 4 0.509 (16) 5.442 (15) 17
16 Giants 6 2 0.594 (8) 3.054 (16) 16
17 Bucs 4 4 0.503 (17) 0.696 (20) 15
18 Chiefs 4 4 0.478 (18) -6.793 (30) 13
19 Broncos 3 5 0.462 (20) -0.484 (23) 13
20 Titans 4 4 0.465 (19) 1.063 (18) 12
21 Eagles 3 5 0.458 (21) 7.701 (12) 11
22 Chargers 4 5 0.453 (22) 0.812 (19) 10
23 Redskins 3 5 0.415 (24) -0.621 (26) 8
24 Vikings 2 6 0.375 (26) 0.521 (21) 6
25 Seahawks 2 6 0.395 (25) -2.311 (27) 6
26 Jaguars 2 6 0.359 (27) -0.258 (22) 5
27 Browns 3 5 0.416 (23) -4.093 (29) 4
28 Dolphins 1 7 0.33 (28) -0.571 (25) 3
29 Panthers 2 6 0.324 (29) 1.41 (17) 3
30 Cardinals 2 6 0.311 (30) -3.219 (28) 2
31 Rams 1 7 0.293 (31) -8.088 (31) 1
32 Colts 0 9 0.247 (32) -12.362 (32) 0
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2011 NFL Power Rankings #5

Well, we are down to a single unbeaten – and so we get a change at the top yet again.  The 49ers, the team that precipitated the change with the win over previous #1 Detroit – was justly rewarded by the numbers.  What ARE those numbers??

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Packers 6 0 0.749 (1) 15.908 (3) 31
2 Patriots 5 1 0.73 (2) 14.604 (4) 30
3 49ers 5 1 0.698 (3) 16.892 (2) 29
4 Ravens 4 1 0.672 (5) 19.948 (1) 27
5 Lions 5 1 0.684 (4) 13.219 (5) 27
6 Bills 4 2 0.65 (7) 12.392 (6) 26
7 Raiders 4 2 0.613 (9) 7.546 (12) 24
8 Titans 3 2 0.581 (11) 6.368 (14) 22
9 Steelers 4 2 0.589 (10) 6.873 (13) 22
10 Saints 4 2 0.64 (8) 9.808 (8) 22
11 Cowboys 2 3 0.535 (15) 10.88 (7) 20
12 Bengals 4 2 0.57 (13) 6.108 (15) 18
13 Bucs 4 2 0.576 (12) 0.067 (22) 17
14 Jets 3 3 0.514 (16) 7.715 (11) 16
15 Texans 3 3 0.492 (18) 8.448 (10) 16
16 Redskins 3 2 0.491 (19) 1.69 (18) 15
17 Bears 3 3 0.472 (21) 9.55 (9) 15
18 Falcons 3 3 0.508 (17) 2.025 (17) 14
19 Chargers 4 1 0.653 (6) 0.253 (21) 11
20 Giants 4 2 0.555 (14) 1.675 (19) 11
21 Seahawks 2 3 0.476 (20) -0.335 (23) 11
22 Eagles 2 4 0.47 (22) 5.008 (16) 10
23 Broncos 1 4 0.361 (25) 1.23 (20) 9
24 Vikings 1 5 0.304 (26) -2.369 (25) 6
25 Jaguars 1 5 0.292 (27) -5.371 (27) 5
26 Panthers 1 5 0.288 (28) -1.1 (24) 4
27 Browns 2 3 0.392 (24) -5.44 (28) 3
28 Chiefs 2 3 0.461 (23) -9.785 (31) 3
29 Cardinals 1 4 0.268 (29) -3.945 (26) 3
30 Dolphins 0 5 0.243 (31) -5.81 (29) 1
31 Rams 0 5 0.262 (30) -9.498 (30) 1
32 Colts 0 6 0.225 (32) -10.348 (32) 0

A few items to note:

  • The most obvious quirk is the muddle in the NFC East.  How are the first place Giants at 4-2, only 20th and only the 3rd highest rated team in the division?  Well, the Giants have a >.500 RPI (schedule adjusted winning percentage basically) but their strength of schedule is 29th in the league.  The Cowboys have a better adjusted scoring margin (basically they have done better margin wise than their opponents typically allow) and have played the #1 schedule in the league.  The Redskins gap is explained mostly by the head-to-head, and that the Redskins have played more good teams than the Giants have (but not by a huge margin).  It is hard to get that worked up about shuffling the teams around.
  • Packers are the obvious top ranked team.  The 31 pairwins shows that they outflank every team in the five ratings criteria, and with the #1 RPI and #3 scoring margin – even considering their pedestrian schedule (17th so far) their resume is clearly the tops.
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2011 NFL Power Rankings #2

With last week’s number one going down in Oakland, we were going to get some shuffling at the top.  In a scant three weeks we are almost out of unbeatens – and have some real intrigue here.  As noted before the rankings compare each team with the other in terms of: RPI, adjusted scoring margin, record vs good teams, head to head and common opponents.  Also note that the model is meant to be unbiased – so it only knows what the season has told us so far, and as we learn more about the teams, the results will reflect that.  So without further intro:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Bills 3 0 0.861 (1) 16.667 (6) 28
2 Packers 3 0 0.833 (2) 17.583 (5) 27
3 Raiders 2 1 0.746 (4) 19.042 (3) 26
4 Saints 2 1 0.667 (7) 20.333 (1) 25
5 Cowboys 2 1 0.746 (4) 15 (7) 24
6 Patriots 2 1 0.662 (8) 18.792 (4) 23
7 Jets 2 1 0.681 (6) 12.5 (11) 23
8 Lions 3 0 0.75 (3) 13.958 (9) 23
9 Ravens 2 1 0.607 (10) 19.292 (2) 22
10 Redskins 2 1 0.625 (9) 14.417 (8) 22
11 Titans 2 1 0.583 (12) 12.542 (10) 21
12 Texans 2 1 0.579 (13) 12.417 (12) 19
13 49ers 2 1 0.572 (14) 8.917 (13) 18
14 Bucs 2 1 0.53 (17) 7 (16) 13
15 Bengals 1 2 0.414 (21) 8.917 (14) 12
16 Giants 2 1 0.565 (15) 3.833 (19) 12
17 Bears 1 2 0.435 (18) 4.167 (17) 12
18 Steelers 2 1 0.593 (11) 0.458 (22) 11
19 Broncos 1 2 0.393 (22) 7.167 (15) 11
20 Cardinals 1 2 0.389 (24) 2 (20) 8
21 Panthers 1 2 0.365 (25) 0.417 (23) 6
22 Jaguars 1 2 0.431 (19) -6.667 (27) 5
23 Browns 2 1 0.419 (20) -6.417 (26) 5
24 Chargers 2 1 0.556 (16) -7.542 (28) 5
25 Falcons 1 2 0.361 (26) -4 (25) 4
26 Seahawks 1 2 0.389 (23) -8.75 (29) 4
27 Eagles 1 2 0.331 (27) -3.917 (24) 3
28 Vikings 0 3 0.25 (29) 3.917 (18) 3
29 Dolphins 0 3 0.194 (30) 1.167 (21) 2
30 Colts 0 3 0.167 (31) -9.667 (30) 1
31 Chiefs 0 3 0.306 (28) -17.583 (32) 0
32 Rams 0 3 0.167 (31) -15.208 (31) 0

Some notes:

  1. The big mover of the week was San Francisco going up to 13.  Their win against Cincinnati, combined with the Seahawks first win of the year and the Cowboys win over the previous #2 Redskins gives their schedule a boost.  The Steelers similarly benefitted from their own win over the Colts as well as the Ravens and Seahawks each winning.
  2. The plunge of the week goes to the Redskins and Jets.  That said, both lost to solid opponents, so not a whole lot bad can be said – except that the Redskins will be kicking themselves for blitzing on a 3rd and 21.
  3. It is way too early to say there will be a lot of turnover in the playoff pecking order this year, but 4 division winners from a year ago have faced some tough sledding.  The Eagles in particular have gone 1-2 against a not that impressive a schedule.  Of course one expected that they’d be a better team in Week 11 than Week 3.
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2011 NFL Power Rankings #1

Fortunately, in contrast to college, the NFL power ranking schedule data comes in nice and quick.  With no byes to be had – the two game minimum needed (so each opponent has another opponent to use for SoS measure) comes nice and quick.  In any case, the lecture on the pairwise comparison method is used this year, similar to the crap we are doing with college teams.  In any case, we’ll keep the first ranking short and sweet:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Jets 2 0 1 (1) 23.25 (5) 28
2 Redskins 2 0 0.875 (2) 20.5 (6) 26
3 Cowboys 1 1 0.725 (7) 29.25 (1) 25
4 Packers 2 0 0.813 (4) 19.5 (7) 25
5 Raiders 1 1 0.725 (7) 24.375 (3) 23
6 Patriots 2 0 0.813 (4) 17.75 (9) 22
7 Lions 2 0 0.813 (4) 12.875 (11) 21
8 Saints 1 1 0.625 (11) 24 (4) 20
9 Texans 2 0 0.688 (9) 12.75 (12) 19
10 Titans 1 1 0.563 (12) 12 (13) 18
11 Bills 2 0 0.875 (2) 6.375 (18) 16
12 Bengals 1 1 0.538 (15) 15.25 (10) 15
13 Cardinals 1 1 0.563 (12) 11.75 (15) 15
14 Ravens 1 1 0.438 (18) 25.5 (2) 14
15 Bucs 1 1 0.438 (18) 19.5 (7) 13
16 Broncos 1 1 0.463 (17) 10 (16) 12
17 Bears 1 1 0.563 (12) 5.5 (19) 12
18 Chargers 1 1 0.438 (18) 8.5 (17) 11
19 Jaguars 1 1 0.688 (9) -0.5 (24) 10
20 Falcons 1 1 0.438 (18) 2.25 (22) 9
21 Eagles 1 1 0.413 (22) 2.5 (21) 8
22 Dolphins 0 2 0.313 (25) 12 (13) 7
23 Giants 1 1 0.5 (16) -4.25 (25) 7
24 Browns 1 1 0.375 (23) -6.75 (26) 6
25 Steelers 1 1 0.313 (25) -7.75 (27) 4
26 Panthers 0 2 0.25 (28) 3.5 (20) 4
27 49ers 1 1 0.275 (27) 0 (23) 4
28 Vikings 0 2 0.125 (29) -9 (28) 3
29 Colts 0 2 0.125 (29) -10.5 (29) 2
30 Chiefs 0 2 0.375 (23) -25.125 (31) 1
31 Rams 0 2 0.063 (31) -15.25 (30) 1
32 Seahawks 0 2 0 (32) -26.75 (32) 0

Some of the observations from two weeks of data?

  1. Despite being outscored 89-10 in two games, the Chiefs are not the worst team in the league.  Basically that their opponents have been slightly less horrible than the Seahawks and Rams puts them at #30.  However, any sort of mention of the Chiefs warrants sighs of despair – amazing they hosted a playoff game a year ago.
  2. The Jets at#1 is the combination of their own performance (2-0 of course) and their opponents solid performance in their other games.  With the 5th rated scoring margin, it feels like the fundamentals are there too (well small sample sizes notwithstanding).  Of course they are expected to win the AFC, so not exactly a bulletin here.
  3. Remember the model only knows what we have seen so far.  The Jets opponents will not be unbeaten against everyone else for instance.  Similarly, Seattle’s opponents will not remain this horrible – although Seattle very well might.
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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 19

Our first rankings update after absorbing some real trade deadline results.  Obviously, the “SMALL SAMPLE SIZE” alert flashes in neon, but it is interesting to see if teams have gotten out of things what they wanted.  First, the total body of work – the methodology is here:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Spurs 51 12 103.965 (2) 96.639 (7) 1.722 1.865 (10) 10.913
2 Lakers 45 19 103.536 (3) 96.647 (8) 1.859 1.446 (28) 10.195
3 Heat 43 20 103.155 (4) 96.263 (6) 1.833 1.45 (27) 10.175
4 Celtics 46 15 100.253 (13) 93.382 (2) 1.664 1.49 (26) 10.025
5 Bulls 44 18 98.899 (17) 92.653 (1) 1.75 1.737 (20) 9.733
6 Magic 40 24 101.229 (10) 95.455 (4) 1.586 1.773 (16) 9.133
7 Mavericks 46 17 102.903 (7) 98.482 (13) 1.722 1.84 (11) 7.983
8 Nuggets 37 27 104.282 (1) 101.333 (20) 1.695 1.896 (9) 6.541
9 Thunder 39 23 103.125 (5) 100.734 (16) 1.75 2.333 (2) 6.475
10 Hornets 37 29 98.479 (20) 95.843 (5) 1.909 1.835 (12) 6.38
11 Sixers 32 30 99.674 (15) 97.211 (9) 1.75 1.192 (29) 5.404
12 Knicks 33 29 103.005 (6) 101.314 (19) 1.75 1.545 (25) 4.987
13 Rockets 33 32 102.857 (8) 101.614 (22) 1.885 1.757 (17) 4.884
14 Grizzlies 36 29 99.031 (16) 97.996 (10) 1.831 1.995 (6) 4.861
15 Blazers 36 27 99.716 (14) 99.205 (15) 1.778 1.745 (19) 4.035
16 Suns 32 29 102.585 (9) 102.121 (24) 1.779 1.785 (15) 4.027
17 Hawks 37 26 98.749 (18) 98.46 (11) 1.889 1.03 (30) 3.207
18 Jazz 33 31 100.368 (11) 101.23 (18) 1.695 1.736 (21) 2.568
19 Bucks 23 38 93.737 (30) 95.306 (3) 1.721 1.955 (7) 2.108
20 Pacers 27 35 96.974 (23) 98.468 (12) 1.75 1.553 (24) 1.809
21 Warriors 27 35 100.366 (12) 102.91 (27) 1.694 2.13 (5) 1.279
22 Bobcats 26 37 95.799 (25) 98.713 (14) 1.778 1.68 (23) 0.543
23 Clippers 24 40 97.3 (22) 101.538 (21) 1.695 2.197 (3) -0.346
24 Pistons 23 41 98.701 (19) 103.049 (28) 1.695 1.729 (22) -0.924
25 Timberwolves 15 50 96.762 (24) 102.301 (25) 1.723 1.809 (13) -2.007
26 Kings 15 46 95.542 (26) 101.227 (17) 1.664 1.747 (18) -2.274
27 Raptors 17 46 98.426 (21) 104.423 (29) 1.722 1.914 (8) -2.36
28 Nets 19 43 95.522 (27) 101.716 (23) 1.75 1.799 (14) -2.645
29 Wizards 16 46 94.707 (29) 102.436 (26) 1.694 2.166 (4) -3.869
30 Cavaliers 12 50 94.757 (28) 105.123 (30) 1.75 2.362 (1) -6.254

Sure, life is good now that the Heat are losing, right? Certainly their miserable week has been expounded on plenty.  But what else has been trending?

  • Curiously, the Nuggets since dealing Carmelo, are your #2 ranked team in the past week.  Most notable has been their defense.  Entering the deadline, they were allowing 101.8 points per pace adjusted game, 21st in the league.  In the small time since the new guys have come in – Denver has dropped to 90.5 points allowed.  Whether this is sustainable or not is anyone’s guess – but with Billups and Melo gone, the team is more athletic – and perhaps the sort of team Karl has been more successful with anyway.
  • The Bobcats, after dealing Nazr Mohammed and Gerald Wallace, basically are without players I have heard of (ok, that’s a lie – but only because I have no life).  One presumes they want to rebuild – and with their dead last performance since the deal, they might have gotten the non-playoffs they are looking for.
  • A team that notably didn’t deal, the Lakers, have not lost since the break.  Since the trade deadline, they are #1 in defense and #1 in margin in general.  Is this a quirk of playing Charlotte in addition to their nationally televised beatdown of San Antonio – or are they actually “rounding into form”.  Seeing Andrew Bynum healthy and rebounding is a scary site to the rest of the West.  The question is if the Lakers have given away too many seeding positions.
  • The Knicks?  They have seen the fruits of adding Melo on the offensive end for sure, jumping from 9th to 6th in that area.  In particular, they have been 2nd in efficiency since the deadline.  The defense is still not a virtue, and the trade has not addressed that.  The Knicks will have to outscore teams – but it seems like they might have some ability to.
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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 18

It’s Tuesday, so it must mean new rankings are here – and this represents a break of sorts with the trade deadline occurring last Thursday.  As usual, the methodology is here.

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Heat 44 17 103.619 (4) 95.452 (4) 1.836 1.195 (29) 11.198
2 Spurs 49 10 103.89 (2) 96.184 (7) 1.72 1.703 (18) 11.129
3 Celtics 43 15 99.955 (13) 93.129 (2) 1.69 1.595 (23) 10.11
4 Lakers 42 19 103.701 (3) 97.135 (9) 1.836 1.403 (27) 9.804
5 Bulls 41 17 99.317 (16) 92.857 (1) 1.69 1.445 (26) 9.594
6 Magic 37 22 101.053 (10) 95.469 (5) 1.661 1.502 (25) 8.747
7 Mavericks 43 16 102.568 (7) 98.254 (13) 1.72 1.9 (12) 7.935
8 Hornets 35 26 98.711 (18) 95.736 (6) 1.779 1.947 (11) 6.701
9 Nuggets 35 26 104.295 (1) 101.81 (21) 1.664 1.981 (10) 6.131
10 Thunder 36 22 102.701 (5) 100.767 (16) 1.75 2.353 (2) 6.037
11 Sixers 30 29 99.496 (15) 97.106 (8) 1.839 1.28 (28) 5.509
12 Knicks 30 27 102.414 (9) 101.167 (19) 1.781 1.631 (22) 4.659
13 Grizzlies 33 28 98.472 (20) 97.662 (10) 1.893 1.646 (19) 4.35
14 Rockets 30 31 102.551 (8) 102.018 (23) 1.836 1.838 (13) 4.207
15 Suns 31 27 102.652 (6) 102.028 (24) 1.69 1.639 (21) 3.952
16 Blazers 33 26 99.629 (14) 99.293 (15) 1.78 1.716 (16) 3.832
17 Hawks 36 24 99.07 (17) 98.221 (12) 1.983 0.868 (30) 3.7
18 Jazz 32 29 100.36 (12) 100.961 (18) 1.721 1.744 (15) 2.864
19 Pacers 26 32 97.267 (22) 98.03 (11) 1.69 1.547 (24) 2.474
20 Bucks 22 36 93.83 (30) 95.273 (3) 1.81 1.995 (9) 2.363
21 Bobcats 26 33 96.627 (25) 98.485 (14) 1.72 1.645 (20) 1.507
22 Warriors 26 32 100.396 (11) 103.067 (28) 1.569 2.178 (6) 1.076
23 Clippers 21 40 97.247 (23) 101.845 (22) 1.721 2.196 (4) -0.68
24 Pistons 22 39 98.534 (19) 103.013 (27) 1.721 2.045 (8) -0.712
25 Kings 15 43 95.451 (26) 100.954 (17) 1.69 1.704 (17) -2.11
26 Timberwolves 14 46 96.697 (24) 102.305 (25) 1.692 1.744 (14) -2.172
27 Raptors 16 44 98.065 (21) 104.281 (29) 1.692 2.178 (5) -2.346
28 Nets 17 43 94.859 (27) 101.574 (20) 1.808 2.08 (7) -2.827
29 Wizards 15 44 94.599 (28) 102.513 (26) 1.72 2.507 (1) -3.687
30 Cavaliers 11 48 94.45 (29) 104.904 (30) 1.78 2.228 (3) -6.446

This week’s observations revolve around the context of some of the big deals and what to look at going forward. In particular:

  • The Celtics moving Perkins would seem to reduce their effectiveness defending the inside.  Meanwhile Green gives them some different skills, and Troy Murphy gives them some offensive firepower.  Will their 13th ranked offense compensate for the perceived defensive dropoff?
  • The Thunder by adding Perk and Mohammed, got bigger and tougher inside.  Also moving Serge Ibaka into the starting lineup should improve their defense.  Will their mediocre 16th ranked defense improve significantly?
  • The Hawks added Kirk Hinrich because they did not want a human traffic cone to be their point guard.  Will their 12th ranked defense improve enough to really make them more than just a no-man’s land team in the East?
  • The Knicks made the highest profile moves of anybody.  The Knicks have been 9th in offense, 19th in defense.  One suspects Melo will add little value to the latter – but can the team’s offense rise up to REALLY make them interesting?
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Dare to be Stupid – The Melo Deal

After much anticipation, we have unofficial word of Carmelo Anthony being dealt to the New York Knicks.  Honestly, I was hoping the deal would be made at halftime of the NBA All Star Game so he could switch uniforms at halftime.  Alas, no such luck.  However, the three team deal that made this happen – assuming this is the trade – is very interesting.

The Timberwolves get Eddy Curry and Anthony Randolph from the Knicks.

The Knicks get Corey Brewer from the Timberwolves.  The Knicks get Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter and Renaldo Balkman from the Nuggets.

The Nuggets get Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov, Raymond Felton, a 2014 first round pick and 2012 and 2013 second rounders that belonged to the Warriors.

For the Timberwolves, this deal is pretty basic.  They get Eddy Curry’s salary cap space and Anthony Randolph’s otherworldly but as yet untapped talent in exchange for Corey Brewer – who is a nice player, but not somebody who will be a core player on the next good Timberwolves team.  Actually I like this for the Timberwolves, and if you look carefully David Kahn has done a good job accumulating talent – granted talent without any real fit, but talent.

For the Nuggets, they obviously are a loser.  When you give up the best player in the deal – it’s a loss.  However, if you accept that Carmelo was gone – then Denver did fairly well.  They got four starters from the Knicks, all up-tempo and can fit into the system Denver already runs.  Mozgov is a bit of a wildcard – he has been awful most of the year, but has delivered a couple of encouraging performances.  The starting caliber players do not make up for Anthony and Billups, but it gets them younger and cleans up their payroll.  The draft pick bounty is not as good as what New Jersey offered – that is the surprise about Denver taking this deal.  I guess your grade for Denver is directly related to how seriously you took Melo’s position.  Denver could have called his bluff and moved him to the Nets who seemed to be offering some sort of mini Herschel Walker package.  In making this move, they seemed spooked about Anthony’s willingness to facilitate a move to the better deal.  Whether that is true or not, we’ll never know.

The Knicks pretty clearly got the best players here.  That said, one questions the Knicks dealmaking – giving up so much in this sort of move when you had so much implied leverage, it was as if the Knicks were either A) being run by Isiah Thomas (maybe they ARE) or B) channeling Barack Obama in a room full of Republicans.  The Knicks got two elite starters in Anthony and Billups.  Going with Stoudemire, this is an exciting team.  However, especially with a new labor agreement coming, I do not know if there is cap room for the Knicks to add more.  If Anthony signs, this is their team for the foreseeable future – unless they think they can move Billups for a younger point guard.  This team looks like they will be better, and maybe even a dangerous floater in the East tournament.  However, did this deal make the Knicks a serious near term threat against Boston, Miami, Chicago or Orlando?  Is Carmelo Anthony that kind of player?  He is a good rebounder and great scorer – but is he a franchise changer?  I don’t know.  The Knicks won this deal by getting one of those sorts of players who are just serially hard to find.  However, I don’t know how far this will actually get them in the brutally difficult top heavy East.