Tag Archives: NFL

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2012 NFL Update #5

Well with week 8 underway, not a whole lot to type here.  But the power rankings heading into this week – including the Bucs manhandling of the Vikings this past Thursday:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Texans 6 1 0.615 (1) 16.152 (1) 31
2 Bears 5 1 0.595 (2) 15.239 (2) 30
3 Falcons 6 0 0.594 (4) 11.258 (8) 28
4 Packers 4 3 0.595 (3) 13.299 (6) 26
5 49ers 5 2 0.59 (5) 13.759 (5) 26
6 Giants 5 2 0.523 (12) 13.865 (4) 24
7 Ravens 5 2 0.558 (8) 4.583 (16) 23
8 Broncos 3 3 0.573 (6) 15.017 (3) 22
9 Seahawks 4 3 0.564 (7) 7.63 (10) 22
10 Patriots 4 3 0.554 (10) 11.439 (7) 20
11 Cardinals 4 3 0.531 (11) 4.798 (15) 19
12 Cowboys 3 3 0.555 (9) 5.249 (12) 17
13 Jets 3 4 0.517 (13) 5.133 (13) 16
14 Redskins 3 4 0.5 (18) 7.753 (9) 16
15 Vikings 5 3 0.514 (14) 2.918 (18) 16
16 Dolphins 3 3 0.509 (16) 4.192 (17) 12
17 Chargers 3 3 0.475 (22) 1.994 (20) 12
18 Rams 3 4 0.496 (20) 5.005 (14) 12
19 Eagles 3 3 0.497 (19) 1.049 (23) 11
20 Steelers 3 3 0.49 (21) 1.436 (21) 10
21 Lions 2 4 0.511 (15) 2.337 (19) 10
22 Bucs 3 4 0.427 (27) 6.819 (11) 10
23 Colts 3 3 0.464 (23) -4.443 (27) 9
24 Bills 3 4 0.457 (24) -6.645 (29) 6
25 Titans 3 4 0.509 (17) -7.738 (30) 6
26 Bengals 3 4 0.406 (30) -2.024 (25) 5
27 Raiders 2 4 0.444 (26) -5.967 (28) 2
28 Saints 2 4 0.38 (31) 1.053 (22) 2
29 Panthers 1 5 0.411 (29) 0.265 (24) 2
30 Jaguars 1 5 0.446 (25) -8.522 (31) 1
31 Browns 1 6 0.369 (32) -3.193 (26) 0
32 Chiefs 1 5 0.414 (28) -9.574 (32) 0

Anyway, not much time to ponder the significance of all of this – suffice to say Houston is very good.

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2012 NFL Update #4

Well, with just five weeks in the books, we are down to two unbeaten teams, and both of them came off weeks where they looked fairly vulnerable, whether it be the Texans against the Jets or the Falcons against the Redskins.  Meanwhile, the NFC West had another good week with San Francisco’s vivisection of Buffalo, Seattle winning ugly again and the Rams strangling the Texans.  Overall, this has been a much more interesting and quality division than we had any right to expect.  To the rankings, with methodology here:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Texans 5 0 0.618 (3) 15.1 (5) 30
2 Bears 4 1 0.623 (2) 16.796 (2) 30
3 Cardinals 4 1 0.681 (1) 10.75 (8) 29
4 Falcons 5 0 0.607 (5) 16.025 (3) 27
5 49ers 4 1 0.609 (4) 19.092 (1) 27
6 Rams 3 2 0.604 (6) 8.513 (10) 26
7 Vikings 4 1 0.584 (7) 7.496 (11) 25
8 Seahawks 3 2 0.581 (8) 6.617 (13) 22
9 Patriots 3 2 0.573 (10) 14.188 (6) 21
10 Ravens 4 1 0.562 (11) 11.025 (7) 21
11 Eagles 3 2 0.574 (9) 2.971 (17) 21
12 Broncos 2 3 0.55 (12) 15.375 (4) 20
13 Jets 2 3 0.524 (16) 1.233 (19) 16
14 Cowboys 2 2 0.527 (15) 4.583 (15) 16
15 Packers 2 3 0.487 (18) 10.075 (9) 16
16 Dolphins 2 3 0.546 (13) 4.192 (16) 15
17 Colts 2 2 0.516 (17) -0.047 (23) 15
18 Bengals 3 2 0.475 (20) 0.175 (21) 13
19 Jaguars 1 4 0.538 (14) -5.004 (28) 11
20 Steelers 2 2 0.471 (22) -1.177 (25) 11
21 Redskins 2 3 0.477 (19) 4.583 (14) 10
22 Lions 1 3 0.468 (23) 1.203 (20) 9
23 Chargers 3 2 0.456 (24) 1.567 (18) 8
24 Giants 3 2 0.404 (27) 7.113 (12) 5
25 Bills 2 3 0.422 (26) -8.275 (30) 3
26 Panthers 1 4 0.361 (29) 0.038 (22) 3
27 Chiefs 1 4 0.425 (25) -6.188 (29) 2
28 Saints 1 4 0.282 (32) -2.775 (26) 2
29 Titans 1 4 0.472 (21) -9.567 (31) 1
30 Bucs 1 3 0.331 (31) -0.526 (24) 1
31 Browns 0 5 0.35 (30) -4.725 (27) 0
32 Raiders 1 3 0.38 (28) -10.615 (32) 0

Some of the takeaways from the week?

  • Well, the Saints four week sojourn at the bottom ended as Drew Brees threw his way into the record books.  Granted, the passing game in the paleazoic era that Unitas played in was totally different, but it’s still an honor.
  • Look at all of those NFC West teams, 4 in the top 8.  Still, one has to think this could change – but it is striking how quickly things have turned from the disaster of two years ago.
  • Really so far, this season has been a very NFC-centric field, and it shows with the dearth of highly ranked AFC teams.  Indeed, the Texans, Patriots and Ravens seem among a very small cadre of reliable sides.
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2012 NFL Update #3

The problem with having something giant magically pop up in your life is that the old things slip – like putting an NFL update together in time.  Alas, my neglect of this – especially with the league going to Thursday games.  Obviously with Arizona’s execrable offensive line performance, the lofty perch the Cardinals hold in the pre-Week 4 power rankings will change.  At the same time, there is more of the league to observe, so here is a quick update with the rankings prior to Thursday.  Note that if we added Thursday to the soup the Rams would be #7 and the Cardinals would be #4.

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Texans 4 0 0.627 (4) 21.083 (1) 29
2 Falcons 4 0 0.67 (3) 18.875 (3) 29
3 Cardinals 4 0 0.75 (1) 16.542 (5) 29
4 Ravens 3 1 0.625 (5) 16.25 (6) 27
5 Bears 3 1 0.604 (8) 13.063 (8) 25
6 Patriots 2 2 0.609 (7) 17.625 (4) 24
7 Eagles 3 1 0.677 (2) 3.938 (15) 24
8 Vikings 3 1 0.578 (10) 6.854 (11) 23
9 49ers 3 1 0.623 (6) 15.542 (7) 22
10 Broncos 2 2 0.563 (11) 19.375 (2) 21
11 Bengals 3 1 0.56 (12) 3.875 (16) 19
12 Rams 2 2 0.503 (15) 4.125 (14) 19
13 Seahawks 2 2 0.594 (9) 8 (10) 19
14 Packers 2 2 0.466 (21) 10.646 (9) 18
15 Chargers 3 1 0.554 (13) 3.667 (17) 15
16 Dolphins 1 3 0.499 (16) 4.458 (13) 14
17 Cowboys 2 2 0.498 (17) 2.646 (19) 13
18 Colts 1 2 0.479 (18) -3.333 (26) 12
19 Giants 2 2 0.448 (22) 6.458 (12) 10
20 Jaguars 1 3 0.552 (14) -1.917 (23) 9
21 Lions 1 3 0.429 (23) -2.188 (24) 9
22 Steelers 1 2 0.379 (28) 0 (20) 6
23 Redskins 2 2 0.401 (26) 2.708 (18) 6
24 Jets 2 2 0.467 (20) -2.208 (25) 5
25 Bills 2 2 0.388 (27) -5.042 (28) 3
26 Titans 1 3 0.469 (19) -7.792 (29) 3
27 Browns 0 4 0.411 (25) -3.375 (27) 3
28 Chiefs 1 3 0.417 (24) -7.917 (30) 2
29 Bucs 1 3 0.313 (30) -0.271 (21) 2
30 Panthers 1 3 0.307 (31) -1.188 (22) 1
31 Raiders 1 3 0.368 (29) -9.75 (32) 0
32 Saints 0 4 0.188 (32) -8.042 (31) 0

Some of the usual observations:

  • Despite the intro – the Cardinals 4-0(1) start is still pretty remarkable.  What is particular fascinating is that the entire NFC West is .500 or better – just think that two seasons ago this was the sickest joke in playoff football history.  Season is long, so there is time for this to change, but still.
  • Patriots sagging at 1-2 hung up a 45 point second half over the poor Buffalo Bills.  2-2 is not “fixed” by any means, but the 4th rated scoring margin portends to bigger things ahead.
  • We have talked about the NFC East as a surprise, but clearly the NFL’s biggest shock so far is the 3-1 start enjoyed by the Minnesota Vikings – who were largely expected to stink.  Adrian Peterson’s return has helped a ton, but really it is the development of Christian Ponder into an adequate NFL quarterback and a defense which has largely been good enough.  They have not piled up any of the Bears/Vikings games yet, but a win over Detroit at least for now seems like a nice feather.
  • The disappointment?  Well – it has to be the Saints, though last week represented progress.  Frankly, in prime time with Drew Brees ready to set a record, it would be hard to envision them losing to San Diego – although their defense is horrific enough to allow that possibility.  Can the Saints go 10-2 the rest of the way?  I wouldn’t put it past them, but clearly they are up against it now in the playoff chase.
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2012 NFL Update #2

Well, that was something, wasn’t it?  What I can say about the ghastly prime time games involving the Patriots, Ravens, Packers and Seahawks is that, well – it’s unpredictable.  Cris Collinsworth, while the best football analyst on television is also the spearhead of the most visible broadcast, was at his wits end trying not to blurt out that this is pretty ridiculous.  What is fascinating about the scab refs is not that they have screwed up pass interference calls or 100 mph sort of snap judgments – but that they have been so reliably bad at the easy stuff.  We see balls mis-spotted, we see fumble calls being egregiously blown.  The refs are screwing up way worse than you’d expect.  It obviously is reflecting in a product, which has become much more compelling, but in a rather creepy dangerous sort of “what’s gonna happen next” sort of way.

That said, there has been 3 weeks of football in the can, and thus more trends and such.  As the season goes on, the fluctuations in the rankings will shrink – but right now the schedule strength causes a lot of flopping about.  So what of Week 3?

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Falcons 3 0 0.75 (3) 25.667 (1) 30
2 Texans 3 0 0.681 (5) 25.667 (1) 29
3 Cardinals 3 0 0.847 (1) 21 (3) 29
4 Seahawks 2 1 0.764 (2) 16.917 (6) 28
5 Ravens 2 1 0.639 (7) 17 (5) 25
6 Broncos 1 2 0.599 (8) 20.917 (4) 24
7 Jets 2 1 0.553 (14) 10.917 (10) 23
8 Cowboys 2 1 0.678 (6) 8.625 (13) 23
9 Patriots 1 2 0.589 (10) 16 (7) 22
10 Eagles 2 1 0.692 (4) 2.167 (20) 22
11 49ers 2 1 0.567 (11) 9.5 (12) 20
12 Vikings 2 1 0.556 (13) 4.333 (16) 19
13 Packers 1 2 0.53 (15) 13.417 (8) 17
14 Chargers 2 1 0.592 (9) 5.583 (15) 16
15 Giants 2 1 0.508 (16) 11.292 (9) 16
16 Dolphins 1 2 0.502 (17) 8.333 (14) 14
17 Steelers 1 2 0.389 (24) 3.333 (17) 13
18 Bills 2 1 0.484 (18) 3.25 (18) 12
19 Jaguars 1 2 0.561 (12) 2.667 (19) 12
20 Bears 2 1 0.458 (20) 9.917 (11) 12
21 Bucs 1 2 0.444 (21) 1.208 (21) 10
22 Bengals 2 1 0.47 (19) -1.083 (23) 9
23 Chiefs 1 2 0.436 (22) -3.25 (24) 8
24 Colts 1 2 0.433 (23) -4.083 (26) 6
25 Raiders 1 2 0.363 (25) -7.25 (28) 4
26 Lions 1 2 0.347 (28) -6.917 (27) 4
27 Titans 1 2 0.363 (25) -14.5 (31) 3
28 Rams 1 2 0.319 (29) -0.083 (22) 3
29 Browns 0 3 0.361 (27) -8.417 (29) 2
30 Redskins 1 2 0.242 (30) -3.583 (25) 2
31 Panthers 1 2 0.224 (31) -9.042 (30) 1
32 Saints 0 3 0.069 (32) -14.75 (32) 0

Some of the quick thoughts from the week past:

  • You will hear all sorts of doomsday stats about the Saints 0-3 start and how so few teams have made the playoffs after an 0-3 beginning.  Of course these stats are nonsense as far proving that a bad start is fatal – it is more that 0-3 is a harbinger that your team sucks, and THAT is why the 0-3 start is problematic.  It is a sign of league balance that there are only two winless sides at this point.  The Saints start has been particularly troubling as the Redskins, Panthers and Chiefs are by no means a murderer’s row of opposition.  The Browns – well, we knew this all along.
  • The Cardinals as of today certainly earned their lofty ranking.  The dominant victory over the Eagles showed another game where they allowed fewer than 20 points.  The defense – with studs like Patrick Peterson and Darnell Dockett – has been championship timber so far even with the offense being relatively uninspiring.  If this sounds like a familiar formula to win the NFC West, well …
  • On the other hand, the Falcons and Texans are passing the eye test much easier.  The Falcons – football’s boring, stable boyfriend – have shown some duende and force in the early going not yet seen.  Do they have the horsepower to not just be a quality team but a truly fear inducing one?  The Texans, they are just so balanced across the board – although that division might end up inflating their record slightly.  But you can’t quibble with the results so far.
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2012 NFL Update #1

Ahoy mateys! Finally, with Week 2 in the books and all 32 teams having 2 games in the bag – we have enough schedule data to start putting some power rankings together. The methodology and consistent updates are here per usual, but what does the first snapshot of the season look like?

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 49ers 2 0 1 (1) 21.75 (5) 30
2 Cardinals 2 0 0.938 (2) 30.5 (2) 30
3 Seahawks 1 1 0.813 (3) 21.25 (6) 28
4 Packers 1 1 0.763 (5) 20 (7) 27
5 Broncos 1 1 0.75 (6) 26.5 (3) 26
6 Eagles 2 0 0.688 (7) 19.25 (8) 26
7 Falcons 2 0 0.688 (7) 15 (10) 24
8 Texans 2 0 0.625 (10) 36.5 (1) 22
9 Ravens 1 1 0.688 (7) 24.5 (4) 22
10 Steelers 1 1 0.563 (12) 16.5 (9) 20
11 Lions 1 1 0.813 (3) 10.5 (13) 19
12 Dolphins 1 1 0.5 (15) 14 (11) 17
13 Bears 1 1 0.563 (12) 6.25 (16) 15
14 Rams 1 1 0.5 (15) 8.25 (14) 15
15 Jets 1 1 0.438 (18) 11.5 (12) 14
16 Patriots 1 1 0.563 (12) 4.5 (18) 13
17 Cowboys 1 1 0.613 (11) 3.75 (20) 13
18 Bucs 1 1 0.438 (18) 5.25 (17) 12
19 Giants 1 1 0.45 (17) -1.75 (23) 11
20 Jaguars 0 2 0.313 (22) 4 (19) 9
21 Chargers 2 0 0.375 (21) 3.5 (21) 9
22 Colts 1 1 0.438 (18) -6.5 (26) 7
23 Raiders 0 2 0.313 (22) -4 (25) 6
24 Bengals 1 1 0.313 (22) -6.75 (27) 5
25 Browns 0 2 0.313 (22) -12 (29) 3
26 Bills 1 1 0.25 (28) -10.5 (28) 2
27 Redskins 1 1 0.238 (30) 7 (15) 2
28 Titans 0 2 0.313 (22) -14.5 (31) 1
29 Panthers 1 1 0.188 (31) 0.5 (22) 1
30 Chiefs 0 2 0.313 (22) -17 (32) 0
31 Vikings 1 1 0.25 (28) -13 (30) 0
32 Saints 0 2 0 (32) -3.75 (24) 0

Obviously – as one could surmise – there is not a lot of data here, just two weeks of quality to evaluate, but that doesn’t mean that there are not things to discuss.

  • Ahoy NFC West!  The 49ers we knew should be good.  But the authoritative wins over Green Bay and Detroit were eye openers.  The combined 2-0 record of opponents obviously overstates the schedule, but not that much.  Seattle and Arizona also have 2-0 schedules.  Arizona’s win at New England ties the Saints loss to the Redskins as the season’s biggest surprise to date.
  • The Saints at #32 are obviously the big surprise in the other direction.  The losses, and truly hideous defensive performances, have taken a lot of the bloom off of the Super Bowl contending rose.  Obviously the coaching staff shakeup has caused some strife – but still, these were not particularly distinguished teams they have lost to.
  • Both Andrew Luck and RG3 look like the real things.  RG3′s results are better so far yes, but his team is more talented, and it is easier I think for a dual threat quarterback to have an early impact.  Griffin’s cool and decision making have been excellent, but Luck has had a lot more put on his shoulders.  The Colts are further behind in development, and he has been given more of the finished NFL offense (somehow I suspect Griffin running option out of the pistol will not last if Shanahan had his druthers).
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2011 NFL Power Rankings #11

With Green Bay and Baltimore offering powerful defenses of their lofty positions, and the Saints making an emphatic Monday night statements, we have this week’s rankings:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Packers 11 0 0.75 (1) 17.012 (1) 31
2 Ravens 8 3 0.656 (3) 13.739 (3) 30
3 Patriots 8 3 0.632 (5) 14.462 (2) 28
4 Saints 8 3 0.645 (4) 10.585 (6) 28
5 49ers 9 2 0.66 (2) 12.266 (5) 28
6 Texans 8 3 0.621 (7) 13.154 (4) 25
7 Steelers 8 3 0.63 (6) 8.767 (9) 25
8 Bears 7 4 0.58 (8) 10.32 (7) 23
9 Lions 7 4 0.574 (9) 9.669 (8) 23
10 Bengals 7 4 0.571 (10) 6.797 (12) 20
11 Cowboys 7 4 0.567 (11) 7.808 (10) 20
12 Falcons 7 4 0.559 (12) 6.327 (13) 19
13 Broncos 6 5 0.543 (14) 1.465 (20) 18
14 Raiders 7 4 0.558 (13) 1.531 (19) 17
15 Jets 6 5 0.532 (15) 6.881 (11) 16
16 Titans 6 5 0.512 (17) 4.039 (16) 16
17 Bills 5 6 0.481 (18) 2.129 (17) 14
18 Eagles 4 7 0.436 (21) 4.641 (14) 12
19 Giants 6 5 0.52 (16) 1.973 (18) 11
20 Seahawks 4 7 0.442 (20) -0.18 (23) 11
21 Chargers 4 7 0.42 (23) 0.591 (21) 10
22 Bucs 4 7 0.445 (19) -0.615 (24) 10
23 Jaguars 3 8 0.386 (27) 0.164 (22) 9
24 Redskins 4 7 0.417 (24) -1.002 (25) 7
25 Dolphins 3 8 0.376 (28) 4.161 (15) 5
26 Chiefs 4 7 0.412 (25) -8.062 (30) 5
27 Browns 4 7 0.399 (26) -2.347 (27) 4
28 Cardinals 4 7 0.433 (22) -2.486 (28) 4
29 Vikings 2 9 0.355 (30) -2.834 (29) 2
30 Panthers 3 8 0.361 (29) -1.466 (26) 2
31 Rams 2 9 0.331 (31) -8.069 (31) 1
32 Colts 0 11 0.238 (32) -12.582 (32) 0

Last week we discussed the quarterback challenges facing Houston and Chicago.  For Houston, with Matt Leinart going out for the season, it got a lot worse.  For Chicago, Haine just did not play well.  That said, both teams were competitive anyway – and the Texans might still be in the drivers seat in their division anyway.  The Bears fortunately do not have to win those games again, but with Atlanta and the Giants still around as viable, the sharks are starting to close in.

8 Toughest Schedules (Opp W/L, Opp SoS x OppOpp SoS)

  1. Tampa Bay Bucs (66-44, .549)
  2. Detroit Lions (63-47, .542)
  3. Chicago Bears (60-50, .533)
  4. Baltimore Ravens (62-48, .531)
  5. Denver Broncos (61-49, .528)
  6. New York Jets (59-51, .527)
  7. Minnesota Vikings (60-50, .521)
  8. San Diego Chargers (57-53, .513)

8 Easiest Schedules To Date

  1. Saint Louis Rams (55-55, .486)
  2. Carolina Panthers (51-59, .477)
  3. Indianapolis Colts (51-59, .475)
  4. New York Giants (50-60, .474)
  5. Kansas City Chiefs (47-63, .474)
  6. Cleveland Browns (49-61, .471)
  7. Washington Redskins (47-63, .457)
  8. Arizona Cardinals (45-65, .457)

At this point with 5 games to go, the playoff picture keeps getting clearer:

AFC East: Patriots 2 games clear with an easy schedule left.  They are in, the only question is how high.

AFC South: Texans have the QB problems, but 2 games up on the Titans.  This is not impossible to collapse, but the division still feels ok.

AFC North: Ravens have effectively a 1 game lead on Pittsburgh with the tiebreak.  Really hard to envision either of them missing the playoffs.

AFC West: Raiders v Broncos for 1-spot.  Denver’s defense has been brilliant, but feels like Oakland HAS to have this right?

Wild Card: If the Steelers are going to get a Wild Card, that leaves the Broncos, the Jets, the Titans and the Bills fighting for one spot

NFC East: Cowboys have the schedule advantage and now a 1-game lead.

NFC North: Packers look good.  The Bears and Lions are still in excellent shape at 7-4.

NFC South: Falcons are in the WC chase.  Could they catch the Saints?  Nominally yes, but I doubt it.

NFC West: 49ers.  Done and done.  The division is so bad that it is hard to envision them missing a bye.

Wild Card: Really it is the Bears, Lions and Falcons and Giants for two positions.  The Bears and Lions seem to have the edges here, but the injury to Cutler really hurts.

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2011 NFL Power Rankings #10

With the Packers holding off challenges left and right and Von Miller quietly starting to rule the world out in Denver, the rankings continue to churn up and down and all around. You know the refrain about how this is put together, let’s cut to the chase:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Packers 10 0 0.748 (1) 16.048 (1) 31
2 49ers 9 1 0.683 (2) 13.783 (2) 30
3 Ravens 7 3 0.634 (4) 13 (5) 29
4 Saints 7 3 0.64 (3) 8.703 (9) 28
5 Patriots 7 3 0.615 (5) 13.674 (3) 27
6 Lions 7 3 0.611 (6) 10.399 (7) 25
7 Bears 7 3 0.607 (8) 11.941 (6) 24
8 Steelers 7 3 0.61 (7) 9.59 (8) 23
9 Texans 7 3 0.601 (9) 13.328 (4) 22
10 Cowboys 6 4 0.561 (11) 8.494 (10) 21
11 Bengals 6 4 0.565 (10) 7.456 (11) 20
12 Falcons 6 4 0.557 (12) 6.592 (13) 20
13 Broncos 5 5 0.514 (15) 1.072 (19) 17
14 Raiders 6 4 0.543 (13) 0.085 (22) 17
15 Jets 5 5 0.511 (16) 6.638 (12) 15
16 Bills 5 5 0.496 (17) 2.425 (18) 14
17 Titans 5 5 0.491 (18) 4.158 (15) 14
18 Giants 6 4 0.536 (14) 3.806 (16) 14
19 Eagles 4 6 0.459 (21) 6.358 (14) 12
20 Seahawks 4 6 0.478 (19) 0.853 (20) 12
21 Bucs 4 6 0.463 (20) -0.699 (23) 11
22 Chargers 4 6 0.445 (22) 0.825 (21) 10
23 Jaguars 3 7 0.396 (25) -0.906 (24) 7
24 Chiefs 4 6 0.432 (23) -9.203 (31) 7
25 Dolphins 3 7 0.382 (27) 3.622 (17) 6
26 Redskins 3 7 0.372 (28) -1.476 (25) 6
27 Browns 4 6 0.406 (24) -3.267 (29) 3
28 Vikings 2 8 0.361 (29) -3.008 (28) 3
29 Cardinals 3 7 0.389 (26) -1.956 (27) 3
30 Rams 2 8 0.347 (30) -8.214 (30) 2
31 Panthers 2 8 0.312 (31) -1.592 (26) 1
32 Colts 0 10 0.241 (32) -13.05 (32) 0

So yes, two games separate the middle SIXTEEN teams in this field.  Talk about crowded.  Really any order you pick can be defensible.  That is why the injuries to Schaub and Cutler could be big problems.  There is just a ton of competition here for the Bears and Texans, though fortunately for Houston not so much in its own division.  The Broncos feel like a paper tiger but if they are going to defend this well, they can overcome Incompletion Jesus.  Why not?

8 Toughest Schedules (Opp W/L, Opp SoS x OppOpp SoS)

  1. Tampa Bay Bucs (56-34, .562)
  2. Chicago Bears (50-40, .539)
  3. Detroit Lions (49-41, .536)
  4. Denver Broncos (51-39, .528)
  5. New York Jets (48-42, .522)
  6. Minnesota Vikings (49-41, .522)
  7. Seattle Seahawks (50-40, .521)
  8. Atlanta Falcons (46-44, .519)

8 Easiest Schedules To Date

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars (43-47, .483)
  2. Miami Dolphins (43-47, .482)
  3. Tennessee Titans (42-48, .482)
  4. New York Giants (40-50, .472)
  5. Arizona Cardinals (39-51, .469)
  6. Kansas City Chiefs (37-53, .464)
  7. Cleveland Browns (39-51, .464)
  8. Washington Redskins (39-51, .462)

BTW: Great tripleheader Thursday.  Green Bay-Detroit, San Francisco-Baltimore, two top 10 matchups.  Dallas-Miami looks less good but Miami has the scoring margin of a much better team than their record indicates.

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2011 NFL Power Rankings #9

At this point in the proceedings, #1 and #2 are clear. However, look at the rest of the league? Baltimore had the big win over Pittsburgh, but a weird loss to Seattle.  The Saints had a great win over Atlanta, but coming off of a crazy loss to Saint Louis.  The Steelers, Patriots also split good results.  So the tier of good teams is very muddled.  To wit, the rankings for this week:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Packers 9 0 0.747 (1) 17.917 (1) 31
2 49ers 8 1 0.683 (2) 13.472 (2) 30
3 Ravens 6 3 0.626 (4) 12.843 (5) 29
4 Saints 7 3 0.64 (3) 8.838 (9) 28
5 Patriots 6 3 0.616 (5) 12.972 (4) 26
6 Steelers 7 3 0.611 (6) 9.519 (8) 25
7 Bears 6 3 0.595 (9) 12.087 (6) 24
8 Texans 7 3 0.6 (8) 12.976 (3) 23
9 Lions 6 3 0.607 (7) 10.502 (7) 23
10 Bengals 6 3 0.58 (11) 7.443 (11) 20
11 Giants 6 3 0.586 (10) 3.844 (17) 20
12 Jets 5 4 0.534 (13) 7.108 (12) 19
13 Cowboys 5 4 0.532 (14) 8.698 (10) 18
14 Bills 5 4 0.527 (15) 5.458 (15) 17
15 Falcons 5 4 0.54 (12) 5.92 (14) 17
16 Raiders 5 4 0.521 (16) -0.345 (23) 16
17 Titans 5 4 0.505 (17) 4.561 (16) 15
18 Broncos 4 5 0.499 (18) 0.323 (20) 14
19 Bucs 4 5 0.465 (19) -2.243 (28) 13
20 Chiefs 4 5 0.437 (21) -8.306 (31) 11
21 Chargers 4 5 0.453 (20) 0.886 (18) 11
22 Seahawks 3 6 0.433 (22) 0 (21) 10
23 Jaguars 3 6 0.418 (23) -0.179 (22) 9
24 Eagles 3 6 0.417 (24) 6.125 (13) 9
25 Redskins 3 6 0.394 (25) -1.906 (25) 7
26 Dolphins 2 7 0.355 (30) 0.788 (19) 4
27 Vikings 2 7 0.377 (28) -1.983 (26) 4
28 Rams 2 7 0.362 (29) -6.707 (30) 3
29 Cardinals 3 6 0.389 (26) -2.127 (27) 3
30 Browns 3 6 0.385 (27) -4.302 (29) 2
31 Panthers 2 7 0.313 (31) -1.343 (24) 1
32 Colts 0 10 0.242 (32) -12.904 (32) 0

It is amazing to see the Eagles at 3-6 at this point.  The NFC East might be close enough to still win, but they have used just about all their slack – if they have any remaining.  The hottest team in the league outside of the top two is probably the Chicago Bears, who have surged into the #7 position.  That said, how comfortable are  you with them for the long haul?  Me neither, though the increased reliance on Forte is a plus.

Oh yeah, the Colts still stink.

Now, the schedule quartiles

Eight hardest schedules to date (Opp W/L, Opp SoS/2nd Order):

  1. Detroit Lions (41-31, .547)
  2. Chicago Bears (41-32, .542)
  3. Tampa Bay Bucs (43-33, .539)
  4. New England Patriots (41-32, .535)
  5. Seattle Seahawks (43-30, .533)
  6. Denver Broncos (41-31, .526)
  7. New York Jets (38-34, .526)
  8. Dallas Cowboys (37-35, .522)

Easiest Schedules

  1. Houston Texans (39-44, .483)
  2. Miami Dolphins (35-38, .478)
  3. Tennessee Titans (34-41, .475)
  4. New York Giants (32-40, .474)
  5. Cleveland Browns (32-42, .468)
  6. Washington Redskins (30-42, .454)
  7. Kansas City Chiefs (27-46, .448)
  8. Arizona Cardinals (28-45, .445)

 

by

2011 NFL Power Rankings #8

Sorry. Not much time to write about the NFL this week. You know how this works – here is the table. Yeah yeah the Giants are under-ranked. The good teams will start to improve their ranking, but the climb has just started presumably.

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Packers 8 0 0.749 (1) 15.991 (1) 31
2 49ers 7 1 0.682 (2) 14.661 (2) 30
3 Ravens 6 2 0.654 (3) 14.336 (3) 29
4 Lions 6 2 0.626 (5) 13.933 (4) 28
5 Saints 6 3 0.615 (6) 8.45 (10) 27
6 Patriots 5 3 0.582 (10) 10.375 (7) 24
7 Jets 5 3 0.598 (7) 9.552 (9) 23
8 Bears 5 3 0.581 (11) 10.371 (8) 23
9 Bills 5 3 0.563 (14) 10.571 (6) 21
10 Bengals 6 2 0.627 (4) 8.038 (11) 20
11 Texans 6 3 0.57 (13) 10.879 (5) 19
12 Steelers 6 3 0.576 (12) 7.342 (13) 19
13 Falcons 5 3 0.591 (9) 6.628 (14) 19
14 Raiders 5 4 0.523 (15) -0.54 (24) 17
15 Cowboys 4 4 0.509 (16) 5.442 (15) 17
16 Giants 6 2 0.594 (8) 3.054 (16) 16
17 Bucs 4 4 0.503 (17) 0.696 (20) 15
18 Chiefs 4 4 0.478 (18) -6.793 (30) 13
19 Broncos 3 5 0.462 (20) -0.484 (23) 13
20 Titans 4 4 0.465 (19) 1.063 (18) 12
21 Eagles 3 5 0.458 (21) 7.701 (12) 11
22 Chargers 4 5 0.453 (22) 0.812 (19) 10
23 Redskins 3 5 0.415 (24) -0.621 (26) 8
24 Vikings 2 6 0.375 (26) 0.521 (21) 6
25 Seahawks 2 6 0.395 (25) -2.311 (27) 6
26 Jaguars 2 6 0.359 (27) -0.258 (22) 5
27 Browns 3 5 0.416 (23) -4.093 (29) 4
28 Dolphins 1 7 0.33 (28) -0.571 (25) 3
29 Panthers 2 6 0.324 (29) 1.41 (17) 3
30 Cardinals 2 6 0.311 (30) -3.219 (28) 2
31 Rams 1 7 0.293 (31) -8.088 (31) 1
32 Colts 0 9 0.247 (32) -12.362 (32) 0
by

2011 NFL Power Rankings #7

With Green Bay taking its bye week this week, the focus was on some of the other teams, especially San Francisco and whether it could retain it’s surprising to say the least status in the Top 5.  Sure, Cleveland was not a great opponent, but still required work.  Moreover, the Eagles on Sunday night delivered a stern message, that does not show in the rankings yet, but could be a harbinger down the road … maybe.  Without further ado.  As always, teams are compared on RPI (with a road win component), record vs good teams, record vs common opponents, head to head and adjusted scoring margin.

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Packers 7 0 0.743 (1) 15.367 (2) 30
2 49ers 6 1 0.678 (2) 15.838 (1) 30
3 Bills 5 2 0.657 (4) 15.03 (3) 29
4 Ravens 5 2 0.616 (7) 13.132 (5) 27
5 Lions 6 2 0.63 (6) 13.54 (4) 27
6 Patriots 5 2 0.664 (3) 12.086 (6) 26
7 Bengals 5 2 0.607 (8) 8.084 (11) 23
8 Saints 5 3 0.594 (9) 8.483 (10) 23
9 Steelers 6 2 0.64 (5) 7.721 (12) 22
10 Texans 5 3 0.554 (13) 10.402 (7) 21
11 Bears 4 3 0.53 (17) 9.254 (8) 19
12 Falcons 4 3 0.576 (10) 5.628 (15) 19
13 Chiefs 4 3 0.557 (11) -1.137 (24) 18
14 Jets 4 3 0.532 (16) 6.487 (13) 17
15 Raiders 4 3 0.543 (15) 1.589 (16) 17
16 Chargers 4 3 0.553 (14) 1.066 (18) 15
17 Titans 4 3 0.508 (19) 0.979 (20) 13
18 Bucs 4 3 0.523 (18) -0.321 (22) 13
19 Cowboys 3 4 0.494 (21) 5.699 (14) 12
20 Giants 5 2 0.556 (12) 0.994 (19) 12
21 Eagles 3 4 0.496 (20) 8.863 (9) 11
22 Redskins 3 4 0.442 (22) -1.191 (25) 9
23 Jaguars 2 6 0.347 (27) -0.355 (23) 7
24 Broncos 2 5 0.399 (25) -3.636 (28) 7
25 Seahawks 2 5 0.408 (24) -2.449 (27) 7
26 Vikings 2 6 0.376 (26) 1.112 (17) 6
27 Browns 3 4 0.425 (23) -4.376 (29) 4
28 Panthers 2 6 0.313 (28) 0.851 (21) 4
29 Rams 1 6 0.302 (29) -8.356 (31) 3
30 Cardinals 1 6 0.268 (30) -2.349 (26) 2
31 Dolphins 0 7 0.235 (32) -4.913 (30) 0
32 Colts 0 8 0.248 (31) -10.517 (32) 0

The team making the strongest statement is Cincinnati, shooting up to a very impressive 7th.  Much of it is on the back of an NFC West oriented schedule, the same one the rest of the AFC North has, but their defense has been wonderful all season.  They are not going to go away – though I don’t see a 12-4 season in them either.  The Patriots, after being thumped by the Steelers, plunge to 6th – and really until the defense gets fixed, they don’t deserve much better.

Schedule quartiles:

Toughest schedules (opponent’s record, avg RPI)

  1. Bills (27-15, .555)
  2. Lions (27-22, .551)
  3. Raiders (25-18, .546)
  4. Falcons (25-19, .546)
  5. 49ers (25-18, .545)
  6. Bears (27-19, .541)
  7. Cowboys (24-19, .540)
  8. Patriots (24-19, .535)

Easiest schedules

  1. Steelers (22-29, .468)
  2. Chargers (18-25, .466)
  3. Titans (20-26, .463)
  4. Panthers (22-29, .460)
  5. Browns (17-26, .457)
  6. Redskins (16-27, .436)
  7. Cardinals (19-26, .433)
  8. Giants (13-29, .414)