Tag Archives: Nuggets

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Dare to be Stupid: The Dwight Howard Trade

Let’s start with one thing.  I don’t know what offers the Orlando Magic actually had here.  Were they really poring through various offers of other teams’ trash?  Was this really some Building 19 special we were dealing with?  It all seems terribly weird for the league’s 2nd best player.  Yeah yeah yeah, it is chic to say that Kevin Durant is the league’s best non-LeBron James player, but Dwight Howard’s total impact on both sides of the floor (as well as the general VORP factors associated with centers) is too hard to ignore.  So, lapsing into Hubie Brown’s cadence, you have the 2nd best player in the league – one who could be a free agent after this season, what is he worth?

We know that Houston amassed trade assets by the boatload leading up to this – between some credible draft picks, cap space and players who know how to play basketball and have some upside – yeah not star upside, but rotation level upside.  We know that Atlanta could have offered Al Horford and Jeff Teague – granted their motivation to do so might have been modest considering that they could have tried to sign Howard outright after the season.  It is hard to think that Aaron Affalo, Al Harrington, Nikova Vucevic, Moe Harkless, a bunch of low value draft picks is a fair price for the 2nd best player in the league.  I mean, that is a combined 0 players who are likely to be key players on the next good Orlando team.  Apparently Orlando has a beat on Jabari Parker in 2014 or something – otherwise this is pretty horrible return for a truly great (albeit truly flaky) player.

For the Lakers, this is obviously heist.  After trading a bunch of picks they don’t want for Steve Nash, getting Dwight Howard for Andrew Bynum and a sack of potatoes is pretty amazing.  With Antawn Jamison augmenting their depth, the Lakers are still way thinner than what you’d prefer and relying on some old guys with big egos (Kobe cough cough), and the pieces do not fit precisely.  But they have four of the 25 best players in the game!  Is Dwight Howard healthy and capable of being the next great Lakers center and phase into the leader of the franchise?  Well he won’t have to lead right away.  Lakers have moved up to a solid 3rd in the pecking order behind Miami and OKC.

Denver’s role here is weird.  On one hand you can blame them for midwifing a trade that reduces their chance of winning.  That said, you’d make the Affalo-Harrington for Iguodala deal tomorrow.  And he is perfect for George Karl’s system – athletic, elite defender.  Given Denver’s model, this was a really shrewd trade.  And really, Lakers or Thunder or Spurs – they probably were not going to usurp any of them anyhoo.  They get a solid A- here.

The Sixers you have to wonder – would they have amnestied Elton Brand if they knew that they could have gotten Andrew Bynum.  Doubtlessly that would have been better than Bynum and Spencer Hawes or whatever.  But that said, Andrew Bynum – health risk and all – is the best player legitimately available to acquire outside of Dwight and they landed him.  Bynum is from Jersey and the Sixers will have an edge in money they can offer.  Bynum is no lock to sign, but the Sixers have as good a chance as anybody – maybe better than that. Studs don’t show up every day – so when you can get one – ask questions later.

Overall Grades: Magic D, Lakers A+, Nuggets A-, Sixers A-

 

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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #10 – Final Report and Playoff Preview

First as you have probably seen from the last couple of entries, people still have Cystic Fibrosis – blah blah blah – click here to help …

FINALLY.  The best of the playoff seasons is upon us.  Of course this was after a truly execrable last couple of weeks of the season where teams were playing scrubs shamelessly while still charging full prices.  The Tuesday Celtics-Heat game was a particular atrocity.  So the rankings could be skewed a tiny bit.  But whatever, the playoffs are here and looks at the series are coming up … how have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (2) Bulls (50-16)
  2. (4) Spurs (50-16)
  3. (1) Thunder (47-19)
  4. (3) Heat (46-20)
  5. (5) Sixers (35-31)
  6. (10) Nugggets (38-28)
  7. (6) Celtics (39-27)
  8. (8) Hawks (40-26)
  9. (7) Grizzlies (41-25)
  10. (15) Clippers (40-26)
  11. (13) Mavericks (36-30)
  12. (9) Lakers (41-25)
  13. (14) Knicks (36-30)
  14. (16) Pacers (42-24)
  15. (11) Magic (37-29)
  16. (12) Rockets (34-32)
  17. (18) Suns (33-33)
  18. (20) Jazz (36-30)
  19. (19) Bucks (31-35)
  20. (17) Blazers (28-38)
  21. (21) Timberwolves (26-40)
  22. (22) Warriors (23-43)
  23. (24) Hornets (21-45)
  24. (23) Raptors (23-43)
  25. (25) Kings (22-44)
  26. (29) Wizards (20-46)
  27. (27) Pistons (25-42)
  28. (28) Nets (22-44)
  29. (26) Wizards (21-45)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-59)

It’s the playoffs!  So – quick looks at your first round series are in order:

  • (E1) Bulls v (E8) Sixers – This is #1 vs #5.  What a matchup!  However, the Sixers have really stumbled down the stretch, but the metrics have been strong as the Sixers blowouts early still have resonance.  The Bulls with Derrick Rose’s dicey injury situation could be great – but they could be tricky.  Defense will be the order of the day (#2 v #3) and neither team is great from outside.  I can’t imagine the Bulls losing this but the Sixers match up well with them, better than they do with the Heat.  Bulls in 7
  • (E4) Celtics v (E5) Hawks – #7 vs #8.  Interestingly here the lower seed has home court.  The Celtics have been very strong down the stretch.  But so have the Hawks, both in the Top 6 since the trade deadline.  The Celtics have serious issues with rebounding and size, but the Hawks are 26th in offensive rebounding, so it is hard to read that as a huge edge.  The games have all been close in their head to head.  Really more of a coin flip than the experts purport.  Hawks in 7
  • (E2) Heat v (E7) Knicks – #4 vs #13 Fun series with two defensively adept teams.  Anthony and LeBron will be a great matchup and the Novak/Smith bench for the Knicks could explode.  But it is hard to envision the Knicks winning in Miami.  This is a fun series but Heat in 6
  • (E3) Pacers v (E6) Magic – The Pacers have the 5th best record in the league but merely #14 in rankings.  This describes the Pacers in general – a nice team, lot of good players, but is this the juice to win a playoff series?  The Magic will be motivated with no Dwight Howard and “nobody believing in them”. Did the Pacers more competitive than it seemed result vs Chicago last year inform them or will the Magic’s winning experience do it?  Without Glen Davis, the Magic just don’t have enough players now – good or otherwise.  Pacers in 5
  • (W1) Spurs v (W8) Jazz – Spurs can flat out score, but the Jazz can attack with size.  Will the Spurs lose in round 1 again?  Frankly I’d have more faith in the Jazz if their defense was not so mediocre.  Against the buzz saw offense of San Antonio it is tough sledding.  Spurs in 5
  • (W4) Grizzlies v (W5) Clippers – Grizzlies are a sexy pick to upset the apple cart.  However this is not last year’s Zach Randolph.  Meanwhile the Clippers just have more better players and one of the game’s best all around players and leaders.  Look how the Hornets stole 2 games against the Lakers with Chris Paul and nobody – he is just that good.  In the playoffs, the stars play more.  Lob City is not done yet.  Clippers in 6
  • (W2) Thunder v (W7) Mavericks – Hard series to peg.  On paper, Thunder should rip through this.  In actuality, Dallas can throw a lot of junk D at them and make the Thunder really work for it.  But it won’t be enough.  Thunder in 7
  • (W3) Lakers v (W6) Nuggets – Denver has depth.  The Lakers don’t.  Denver has speed, and the Lakers have real issues with that.  But the Lakers have all the really good players here and their size and ability to dictate in the half court.  I hope Denver can make this fun.  I think the Lakers grind it out enough.  Lakers in 6
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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 20

With the Heat’s trials and tribulations, and a couple of enormous wins, where does this take us rankings-wise?  As always, you can find the methodology here:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Heat 46 21 103.613 (3) 96.115 (5) 1.724 1.641 (25) 10.862
2 Lakers 48 20 103.558 (4) 96.655 (7) 1.904 1.716 (22) 10.524
3 Spurs 54 13 103.869 (2) 96.996 (8) 1.724 1.889 (12) 10.485
4 Bulls 47 18 99.536 (15) 92.671 (1) 1.723 1.671 (24) 10.258
5 Celtics 47 18 99.847 (13) 93.218 (2) 1.669 1.387 (28) 9.685
6 Magic 42 26 101.266 (10) 95.762 (4) 1.699 1.725 (21) 8.928
7 Mavericks 47 19 103.012 (6) 98.573 (12) 1.697 2.002 (5) 8.139
8 Nuggets 40 27 104.784 (1) 101.025 (17) 1.724 1.867 (13) 7.351
9 Thunder 43 23 103.289 (5) 100.238 (16) 1.803 1.922 (9) 6.776
10 Hornets 39 30 98.688 (19) 96.179 (6) 1.826 1.909 (11) 6.245
11 Rockets 34 34 102.743 (8) 101.625 (21) 1.853 1.92 (10) 4.89
12 Sixers 34 33 99.225 (16) 97.413 (9) 1.776 1.26 (29) 4.849
13 Grizzlies 37 31 99.065 (17) 98.203 (10) 1.801 2.056 (3) 4.719
14 Knicks 34 31 102.962 (7) 101.74 (24) 1.777 1.588 (26) 4.586
15 Blazers 37 29 99.599 (14) 99.14 (15) 1.856 1.845 (14) 4.161
16 Suns 33 32 101.989 (9) 102.224 (25) 1.723 1.971 (6) 3.459
17 Hawks 38 28 98.429 (21) 98.371 (11) 1.856 1.231 (30) 3.145
18 Bucks 26 39 93.773 (30) 94.618 (3) 1.723 1.749 (17) 2.628
19 Jazz 35 33 100.383 (12) 101.711 (23) 1.75 1.74 (18) 2.162
20 Warriors 30 37 100.431 (11) 102.419 (26) 1.724 1.758 (15) 1.494
21 Pacers 28 38 96.761 (23) 98.598 (13) 1.803 1.429 (27) 1.394
22 Bobcats 28 38 95.84 (26) 98.816 (14) 1.75 1.685 (23) 0.458
23 Clippers 26 42 97.43 (22) 101.372 (19) 1.801 2.126 (2) -0.014
24 Pistons 23 44 98.86 (18) 103.864 (28) 1.776 1.94 (8) -1.288
25 Timberwolves 17 51 96.633 (24) 101.688 (22) 1.699 1.731 (20) -1.625
26 Kings 16 49 95.975 (25) 101.556 (20) 1.669 1.955 (7) -1.957
27 Nets 22 43 95.543 (27) 101.197 (18) 1.669 1.752 (16) -2.232
28 Raptors 18 48 98.487 (20) 104.24 (29) 1.644 1.733 (19) -2.376
29 Wizards 16 49 94.231 (29) 102.591 (27) 1.615 2.054 (4) -4.692
30 Cavaliers 12 53 94.257 (28) 104.919 (30) 1.723 2.264 (1) -6.675

With the trade deadline done and the playoffs coming up, starting last week, we have been tracking the pre and post deadline splits to see where the player movement has taken teams. Granted, in Oklahoma City’s case the new guys have largely not played. In any case, here are the Top 10 teams by real point differential since the deadline:

  • 10. Bucks (4.06)
  • 9.  Heat (4.44)
  • 8. Celtics (4.93)
  • 7. Mavericks (5.48)
  • 6. Rockets (6.16)
  • 5. Nets (6.30)
  • 4. Lakers (9.96)
  • 3. Bulls (10.41)
  • 2. Thunder (11.09)
  • 1. Nuggets (16.58)

The bottom 5 since the deadline:

  • 26. Pacers (-9.45)
  • 27. Pistons (-10.29)
  • 28. Bobcats (-12.59)
  • 29. Wizards (-12.6)
  • 30. Cavaliers (-12.72)

One of the funny things is that the Pacers and Bobcats are battling, such as it is – for the East’s 8th spot.  Both teams feel like a virtual bye for the East top seed, compared to the very stern Sixers (#12) in the 7th position.  The Bucks somehow, are only 1.5 games out of the 8th spot, and they might end up being the most challenging of the three to an East top seed.

In the West, Denver’s amazing two weeks has suddenly not only kept them from sliding out of the playoffs, but have given them a pretty darn good chance to hold the 5th position and be an annoying opponent for somebody.  What has changed with Melo’s departure?  As we said last week – defense.  Since the deadline, the Nuggets defense, which was a very shaky 21st (101.8 real ppg) has been playing at a much much higher rate – 4th overall in fact (92.8 real ppg allowed).  Combine that with their offense, which has improved from their #1 entering and suddenly they look like a fascinating opponent.  How has this defensive turnaround taken place?  Obviously improving defensive fundamentals has been important – their true shooting defense has gone from 54.8% to 52.8% (18th to 10th … mostly from cutting down fouls and allowing fewer 3s ) – but the real story has been Denver’s stunning improvement in shot allowance.  Pre-trade, the Nuggets were one of the league’s worst teams at allowing shots (26th).  However since the deadline they have been the third BEST team in the league at preventing looks.  This is due to serious increases in BOTH shot quantity components.  The Nuggets, for a George Karl team, were an uncharacteristic 29th in the league in forcing turnovers – since the deal they have moved up to 6th with an over 20% increase.  The Nuggets have also tightened up the defensive boards, going from a solid 9th to the best defensive rebounding side since the trade, grabbing over 81% of misses.  I am not sure who “the guy” is in their lineup – but don’t sleep on them because Melo is gone.

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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 19

Our first rankings update after absorbing some real trade deadline results.  Obviously, the “SMALL SAMPLE SIZE” alert flashes in neon, but it is interesting to see if teams have gotten out of things what they wanted.  First, the total body of work – the methodology is here:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Spurs 51 12 103.965 (2) 96.639 (7) 1.722 1.865 (10) 10.913
2 Lakers 45 19 103.536 (3) 96.647 (8) 1.859 1.446 (28) 10.195
3 Heat 43 20 103.155 (4) 96.263 (6) 1.833 1.45 (27) 10.175
4 Celtics 46 15 100.253 (13) 93.382 (2) 1.664 1.49 (26) 10.025
5 Bulls 44 18 98.899 (17) 92.653 (1) 1.75 1.737 (20) 9.733
6 Magic 40 24 101.229 (10) 95.455 (4) 1.586 1.773 (16) 9.133
7 Mavericks 46 17 102.903 (7) 98.482 (13) 1.722 1.84 (11) 7.983
8 Nuggets 37 27 104.282 (1) 101.333 (20) 1.695 1.896 (9) 6.541
9 Thunder 39 23 103.125 (5) 100.734 (16) 1.75 2.333 (2) 6.475
10 Hornets 37 29 98.479 (20) 95.843 (5) 1.909 1.835 (12) 6.38
11 Sixers 32 30 99.674 (15) 97.211 (9) 1.75 1.192 (29) 5.404
12 Knicks 33 29 103.005 (6) 101.314 (19) 1.75 1.545 (25) 4.987
13 Rockets 33 32 102.857 (8) 101.614 (22) 1.885 1.757 (17) 4.884
14 Grizzlies 36 29 99.031 (16) 97.996 (10) 1.831 1.995 (6) 4.861
15 Blazers 36 27 99.716 (14) 99.205 (15) 1.778 1.745 (19) 4.035
16 Suns 32 29 102.585 (9) 102.121 (24) 1.779 1.785 (15) 4.027
17 Hawks 37 26 98.749 (18) 98.46 (11) 1.889 1.03 (30) 3.207
18 Jazz 33 31 100.368 (11) 101.23 (18) 1.695 1.736 (21) 2.568
19 Bucks 23 38 93.737 (30) 95.306 (3) 1.721 1.955 (7) 2.108
20 Pacers 27 35 96.974 (23) 98.468 (12) 1.75 1.553 (24) 1.809
21 Warriors 27 35 100.366 (12) 102.91 (27) 1.694 2.13 (5) 1.279
22 Bobcats 26 37 95.799 (25) 98.713 (14) 1.778 1.68 (23) 0.543
23 Clippers 24 40 97.3 (22) 101.538 (21) 1.695 2.197 (3) -0.346
24 Pistons 23 41 98.701 (19) 103.049 (28) 1.695 1.729 (22) -0.924
25 Timberwolves 15 50 96.762 (24) 102.301 (25) 1.723 1.809 (13) -2.007
26 Kings 15 46 95.542 (26) 101.227 (17) 1.664 1.747 (18) -2.274
27 Raptors 17 46 98.426 (21) 104.423 (29) 1.722 1.914 (8) -2.36
28 Nets 19 43 95.522 (27) 101.716 (23) 1.75 1.799 (14) -2.645
29 Wizards 16 46 94.707 (29) 102.436 (26) 1.694 2.166 (4) -3.869
30 Cavaliers 12 50 94.757 (28) 105.123 (30) 1.75 2.362 (1) -6.254

Sure, life is good now that the Heat are losing, right? Certainly their miserable week has been expounded on plenty.  But what else has been trending?

  • Curiously, the Nuggets since dealing Carmelo, are your #2 ranked team in the past week.  Most notable has been their defense.  Entering the deadline, they were allowing 101.8 points per pace adjusted game, 21st in the league.  In the small time since the new guys have come in – Denver has dropped to 90.5 points allowed.  Whether this is sustainable or not is anyone’s guess – but with Billups and Melo gone, the team is more athletic – and perhaps the sort of team Karl has been more successful with anyway.
  • The Bobcats, after dealing Nazr Mohammed and Gerald Wallace, basically are without players I have heard of (ok, that’s a lie – but only because I have no life).  One presumes they want to rebuild – and with their dead last performance since the deal, they might have gotten the non-playoffs they are looking for.
  • A team that notably didn’t deal, the Lakers, have not lost since the break.  Since the trade deadline, they are #1 in defense and #1 in margin in general.  Is this a quirk of playing Charlotte in addition to their nationally televised beatdown of San Antonio – or are they actually “rounding into form”.  Seeing Andrew Bynum healthy and rebounding is a scary site to the rest of the West.  The question is if the Lakers have given away too many seeding positions.
  • The Knicks?  They have seen the fruits of adding Melo on the offensive end for sure, jumping from 9th to 6th in that area.  In particular, they have been 2nd in efficiency since the deadline.  The defense is still not a virtue, and the trade has not addressed that.  The Knicks will have to outscore teams – but it seems like they might have some ability to.
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Dare to be Stupid – The Melo Deal

After much anticipation, we have unofficial word of Carmelo Anthony being dealt to the New York Knicks.  Honestly, I was hoping the deal would be made at halftime of the NBA All Star Game so he could switch uniforms at halftime.  Alas, no such luck.  However, the three team deal that made this happen – assuming this is the trade – is very interesting.

The Timberwolves get Eddy Curry and Anthony Randolph from the Knicks.

The Knicks get Corey Brewer from the Timberwolves.  The Knicks get Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter and Renaldo Balkman from the Nuggets.

The Nuggets get Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov, Raymond Felton, a 2014 first round pick and 2012 and 2013 second rounders that belonged to the Warriors.

For the Timberwolves, this deal is pretty basic.  They get Eddy Curry’s salary cap space and Anthony Randolph’s otherworldly but as yet untapped talent in exchange for Corey Brewer – who is a nice player, but not somebody who will be a core player on the next good Timberwolves team.  Actually I like this for the Timberwolves, and if you look carefully David Kahn has done a good job accumulating talent – granted talent without any real fit, but talent.

For the Nuggets, they obviously are a loser.  When you give up the best player in the deal – it’s a loss.  However, if you accept that Carmelo was gone – then Denver did fairly well.  They got four starters from the Knicks, all up-tempo and can fit into the system Denver already runs.  Mozgov is a bit of a wildcard – he has been awful most of the year, but has delivered a couple of encouraging performances.  The starting caliber players do not make up for Anthony and Billups, but it gets them younger and cleans up their payroll.  The draft pick bounty is not as good as what New Jersey offered – that is the surprise about Denver taking this deal.  I guess your grade for Denver is directly related to how seriously you took Melo’s position.  Denver could have called his bluff and moved him to the Nets who seemed to be offering some sort of mini Herschel Walker package.  In making this move, they seemed spooked about Anthony’s willingness to facilitate a move to the better deal.  Whether that is true or not, we’ll never know.

The Knicks pretty clearly got the best players here.  That said, one questions the Knicks dealmaking – giving up so much in this sort of move when you had so much implied leverage, it was as if the Knicks were either A) being run by Isiah Thomas (maybe they ARE) or B) channeling Barack Obama in a room full of Republicans.  The Knicks got two elite starters in Anthony and Billups.  Going with Stoudemire, this is an exciting team.  However, especially with a new labor agreement coming, I do not know if there is cap room for the Knicks to add more.  If Anthony signs, this is their team for the foreseeable future – unless they think they can move Billups for a younger point guard.  This team looks like they will be better, and maybe even a dangerous floater in the East tournament.  However, did this deal make the Knicks a serious near term threat against Boston, Miami, Chicago or Orlando?  Is Carmelo Anthony that kind of player?  He is a good rebounder and great scorer – but is he a franchise changer?  I don’t know.  The Knicks won this deal by getting one of those sorts of players who are just serially hard to find.  However, I don’t know how far this will actually get them in the brutally difficult top heavy East.

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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 16

The Heat continue to lead – but really at this point it is hard to say their lead (less than 2 points) is significant at all.  Really, where the fun is taking place is at the bottom of the playoff races.  As always, the methodology can be found here:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Spurs 46 9 103.857 (2) 95.95 (7) 1.782 1.643 (22) 11.332
2 Heat 39 15 103.568 (3) 95.419 (4) 1.88 1.288 (29) 11.317
3 Celtics 39 14 100.071 (13) 93.243 (2) 1.585 1.78 (16) 10.194
4 Lakers 38 18 103.549 (4) 97.208 (9) 1.813 1.561 (25) 9.714
5 Magic 35 21 100.948 (10) 95.576 (6) 1.75 1.759 (17) 8.881
6 Bulls 36 16 98.522 (17) 92.768 (1) 1.683 1.368 (28) 8.805
7 Mavericks 38 16 101.86 (8) 98.115 (14) 1.685 2.239 (1) 7.669
8 Hornets 33 23 98.389 (18) 95.429 (5) 1.75 2.238 (2) 6.947
9 Thunder 34 19 102.678 (5) 100.679 (18) 1.783 2.132 (4) 5.914
10 Nuggets 31 25 104.646 (1) 102.647 (27) 1.688 1.79 (15) 5.477
11 Sixers 26 28 98.748 (16) 96.888 (8) 1.815 1.668 (21) 5.344
12 Knicks 27 26 102.558 (7) 101.344 (19) 1.783 1.731 (18) 4.728
13 Rockets 26 30 101.834 (9) 101.536 (21) 1.813 2.13 (5) 4.241
14 Hawks 34 20 99.652 (14) 98.068 (13) 1.815 0.666 (30) 4.066
15 Grizzlies 30 26 98.003 (19) 97.6 (10) 1.875 1.569 (24) 3.847
16 Blazers 31 24 99.472 (15) 99.133 (15) 1.909 1.472 (27) 3.721
17 Suns 26 26 102.626 (6) 102.381 (24) 1.683 1.793 (14) 3.72
18 Jazz 31 24 100.302 (12) 100.37 (17) 1.655 1.721 (19) 3.308
19 Pacers 24 28 97.06 (23) 97.755 (11) 1.75 1.674 (20) 2.729
20 Bucks 21 33 93.826 (29) 95.109 (3) 1.88 1.949 (10) 2.545
21 Bobcats 24 31 96.111 (25) 98.017 (12) 1.718 1.642 (23) 1.455
22 Warriors 24 29 100.326 (11) 103.012 (28) 1.585 2.103 (6) 1.001
23 Clippers 20 35 97.758 (21) 101.764 (22) 1.591 2.098 (7) -0.318
24 Pistons 20 36 97.637 (22) 102.465 (26) 1.75 2.036 (8) -1.042
25 Kings 13 38 95.365 (26) 100.022 (16) 1.51 1.501 (26) -1.646
26 Timberwolves 13 42 96.896 (24) 102.407 (25) 1.782 1.903 (12) -1.826
27 Raptors 15 40 97.873 (20) 103.914 (29) 1.782 1.927 (11) -2.332
28 Wizards 15 38 95.307 (27) 101.975 (23) 1.717 2.136 (3) -2.815
29 Nets 17 39 94.858 (28) 101.368 (20) 1.75 1.794 (13) -2.965
30 Cavaliers 9 46 93.778 (30) 104.932 (30) 1.909 2.017 (9) -7.228

What is notable from this week:

  • Obviously the Pacers are surging towards the playoffs.  18-27 two weeks ago, they have suddenly bolted to 24-28.  The coaching change would imply the usual bump that comes with it.  However, look at the numbers and the actual fundamentals underneath have not improved greatly.  The offense has improved from 96.3 to 97 points per game while the defense has gone from 97.4 to 97.8.  Obviously this is a small sample, but the stats have not shifted too dramatically, and mostly on the offensive side.  However, look at the strength of schedule.  In this 2 week span the Pacers have also slipped 8 spots in strength of schedule rating.  Really the coaching change seems to be less explanatory than a sudden shift in schedule quality.
  • The Nuggets-Grizzlies race for the 8th spot (seriously) is down to 1 game.  On paper the Nuggets still seem to have the best case – but that 27th ranked defense is a real problem.  The Grizzlies have been consistent on that side of the ball so far this season – consistent enough that the Nuggets #1 offense has not been enough to get away.
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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 15

It’s Tuesday, so we know what that means?  As always, the methodology is here:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Heat 37 14 103.715 (4) 95.402 (4) 1.853 1.215 (29) 11.382
2 Spurs 42 8 103.918 (3) 96.34 (7) 1.61 2.124 (9) 11.311
3 Celtics 38 13 100.47 (13) 93.339 (2) 1.647 1.425 (25) 10.203
4 Lakers 36 16 104.208 (2) 97.248 (8) 1.683 1.256 (28) 9.9
5 Magic 32 20 101.435 (9) 96.057 (6) 1.817 1.582 (21) 8.777
6 Bulls 34 16 98.613 (17) 92.728 (1) 1.61 1.271 (27) 8.767
7 Mavericks 36 15 101.35 (10) 97.592 (10) 1.578 2.303 (4) 7.639
8 Hornets 32 21 98.567 (18) 95.264 (3) 1.717 2.149 (8) 7.169
9 Thunder 33 17 103.144 (5) 100.931 (18) 1.75 2.321 (2) 6.284
10 Nuggets 30 22 104.404 (1) 101.782 (23) 1.615 1.695 (17) 5.932
11 Knicks 26 24 102.783 (6) 101.299 (20) 1.82 1.787 (15) 5.09
12 Hawks 33 18 100.001 (14) 97.97 (12) 1.853 0.658 (30) 4.541
13 Rockets 25 28 101.583 (8) 101.291 (19) 1.915 2.198 (6) 4.405
14 Sixers 23 27 98.741 (16) 97.993 (13) 1.82 1.401 (26) 3.969
15 Jazz 31 22 100.769 (11) 100.652 (17) 1.717 1.608 (18) 3.441
16 Grizzlies 27 26 97.841 (21) 97.825 (11) 1.915 1.493 (23) 3.423
17 Blazers 28 24 99.039 (15) 99.218 (15) 1.817 1.762 (16) 3.4
18 Suns 24 25 102.638 (7) 103.041 (28) 1.714 1.879 (14) 3.19
19 Bucks 19 30 93.734 (29) 95.657 (5) 1.929 2.314 (3) 2.319
20 Pacers 21 27 96.309 (24) 97.398 (9) 1.75 1.587 (20) 2.248
21 Warriors 22 28 100.496 (12) 102.918 (27) 1.61 2.073 (10) 1.261
22 Bobcats 22 29 95.769 (25) 98.143 (14) 1.716 1.594 (19) 0.935
23 Clippers 19 31 98.01 (20) 101.435 (21) 1.4 2.417 (1) 0.391
24 Pistons 19 32 97.561 (22) 102.08 (25) 1.853 1.976 (11) -0.69
25 Timberwolves 12 39 97.146 (23) 102.299 (26) 1.784 1.94 (12) -1.429
26 Kings 12 36 95.169 (26) 99.997 (16) 1.531 1.45 (24) -1.847
27 Raptors 14 37 98.099 (19) 103.965 (29) 1.853 1.886 (13) -2.127
28 Wizards 13 37 94.852 (28) 102.003 (24) 1.75 2.196 (7) -3.204
29 Nets 15 37 94.972 (27) 101.658 (22) 1.817 1.56 (22) -3.308
30 Cavaliers 8 44 93.334 (30) 104.713 (30) 2.019 2.276 (5) -7.084

A few items of interest:

  • Last week we discussed the West playoff entrants in lieu of the Jazz’ slide.  The team I forgot to mention were the Rockets – who have done an amazing job hanging in – and fundamentally have a profile and a schedule (both road and difficulty heavy) that seem to indicate there is some room to surge ahead.  The Rockets have hung in largely on offense – where they are ranked a respectable 8th – using strong shot generation ability (7th) to bolster above average shooting numbers.  The Rockets are interesting in that their actual FG% is pretty lousy, but they have made up for it with effective foul shooting and effective three point shooting.  They take a lot of high value shots, and add a low turnover rate, and it makes up for their bad defense.
  • The most intriguing story (or perhaps most trite at this point) is the Carmelo Anthony story.  We know that he wants to leave blah blah blah.  What is espcially damning here is that – his team is GOOD, and in a wild West, considering their injuries earlier in the season, could be better.  The Nuggets are the league’s best offense, riding the league’s top TS% (which is driven by the league’s best three point attack and one of the elite foul drawing teams).  Their defense has been worse than normal  – especially a surprising inability to produce turnovers.  But with their injured bigs coming back – it feels like this team could easily rise up a bit if their defense improves just a little.
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2011 NBA Preview: Teams 18-13

Before we get to the meat, a side note:

  • I only managed to catch the final two fights on UFC 121.  I am normally not a huge MMA guy, but when the top needle mover in the sport is going, I am up for it.  Brock Lesnar since coming over from fake sports (I knew him from WWE) has been a force of nature unlike anything MMA has seen before.  However, Cain Velasquez was the first guy he faced who was legitimately faster than him.  Lesnar came out hot but Velasquez was ready for it and after the initial rush Velasquez beat the living crap out of Lesnar.  What a performance!  Lesnar needs to figure out how to defend himself when he gets sent down – this almost killed him against Carwin.  Also, sadly, Jake Shields sucked – gave me no reason to think that John Fitch does not deserve to UFC’s #1 contender for GSP – as horrible as that sounds.
  • Wow is Lesnar’s chin awful or what?

Now, back to basketball.

As we rise up the rankings, we have passed bad teams, interesting but unripe teams, uninteresting but skilled teams … now we start getting into fringy playoff sides.

18. Indiana Pacers (21st overall in 2010, 26th offense, 14th defense)

Really the Charlotte Bobcats forecast in our previous entry and the next two entries might qualify for the least interesting teams in the league for this season.  They aren’t bad in any sort of customary way, they might even make the playoffs to be a punching bag for a really good side – but I don’t see much sizzle here.  Danny Granger is a terrific player, but clearly more of a #2 than a #1.  Darren Collison is an excellent point guard prospect, and unlike TJ Ford seems to know that passing is a good idea.  Still, is he going to be on the Rose-Rondo-Deron-CP3 sort of future short list?  But then: Brandon Rush, Tyler Hansbrough, Dontae Jones, Roy Hibbert, Mike Dunleavy.  There are a lot of decent players here, but decent is it.  To his credit, Larry Bird recognized the stasis and went for some high ceiling low probability guys in Paul George and Lance Stephenson in the draft.  If some of that works, maybe this is a playoff team and attractive to a free agent with the cap room they have.  But I don’t know.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Paul George reaches his ceiling and Darren Collison is a lot better than I think (and I respect him a lot), while Granger remains a high efficiency scorer.  Really, they might have to join the NBDL too.  This is a potential playoff team, but I don’t see what that potential means.

17. New Orleans Hornets (19th overall in 2010, 16th offense, 22nd defense)

Much drama was had regarding Chris Paul’s flailing about and tacit demanding of a trade.  Really it was part of a very eventful offseason.  Jeff Bower, the GM and interim coach left, the Hornets got someone from the Spurs (always a decent idea) and hired Monte Williams as coach, a lauded assistant I know nothing about.  They traded for Trevor Ariza to give some athleticism and drafted Quincy Pondexter for even more.  The team has some talent, but really they are the West’s Washington Wizards, who placed a lot of high value bets on decent players who did not deserve such faith.  One man’s Caron Butler, put simply, is another’s Peja Stojakovic.  Fortunately for the Hornets, they have some cap room next year, but will they fulfill Chris Paul’s wishes to have a chance to win without him making a pinkie swear promise with somebody?

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: NBA teams are only allowed to play one point guard on the floor with no other players.

16. Phoenix Suns (3rd overall in 2010, 1st offense, 19th defense)

So THIS is the fallout from one of the most joyous seasons in Suns history.  Sure they lost a tough series to the Lakers, but the season was such found money that it is hard to argue the season was nothing but a screaming success.  So they celebrated by losing Amare Stoudemire to the Knicks, bungling the situation so they could not get a giant cap exception.  They then signed Hakim Warrick, traded for Josh Childress and traded for Hedo Turkoglu, one of the ghastliest contracts in the NBA.   Louis Amundsen, their energy big man off their remarkable bench left for Golden State.  The end result is Steve Nash is surrounded by a bevy of small forwards, and a couple of VERY soft big men.  Also gone is the shooting prowess of Leandro Barbosa.  Honestly, I am not sure besides Steve Nash, Jason Richardson and Channing Frye, where the firepower is coming from outside.  Can they play the breakneck pace they always do and shoot well?  Sure.  But their defense, not a strength a year ago (and it actually WAS a strength under D’Antoni) could be earth shatteringly bad.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They somehow match last year’s true shooting percentage and offensive efficiency while Robin Lopez turns into Marcus Camby.  They need to defend marginally well and rebound.  They could majorly overachieve again, but I don’t expect any team that scares away a guy like Steve Kerr to be achieving much of anything.

15. New York Knicks

In a fun coincidence, we follow Mike D’Antoni’s old team with his current one.  On the bad side, the Knicks plan to get LeBron James as a colossal failure.  They had no way of knowing about the pinky swear promise, and as such they built up their fans’ hopes for nothing.  Some have called the offseason an unmitigated disaster.  I am inclined to empathize, but given this – their offseason was actually pretty good.  They signed Amare Stoudemire.  Sure he has no partner in crime, but by not splurging otherwise, there is some possibility to get that guy.  They fleeced Golden State trading David Lee’s one dimensional ass for Anthony Randolph who has Shawn Marion sort of ability dripping off of him.  They signed Raymond Felton to one of the smartest deals of the offseason – while that might not be a perfect fit on the court, he was a great value.  There is not the three point gunning in this lineup to satisfy D’Antoni, but there are the athletes to run, run, run.  The Knicks have the talent to get back into the playoffs at least.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: If the 2005 Suns magic strikes again and these guys all DO become great 3 point gunners.  There are a lot of 129-122 results in this team’s future.  There is no real title hope here, but the entertainment value will be there.

14. Atlanta Hawks (8th overall in 2010, 4th offense, 15th defense)

What is interesting about the Hawks offense is that they basically succeeded by not passing.  Their noted isolation heavy attack relied on shooting a lot and rebounding misses.  They led the league in lowest turnover rate because guys just shot it when they had it.  Their 4th ranked offensive rebounding stat shows how they were efficient.  They did a great job at making sure stuff was heading to the basket, such a great job that they had some slack when the ball did not go in.  That said, this team had great health and a great season off the bench for Jamal Crawford, and Josh Smith is one of the covert best players in the NBA.  Really this is the most predictable outfit in the league.  They are good and durable and playoff caliber.  But they just aren’t good enough to beat top teams in the postseason.  This has shown the last two years with their drubbings in the second round – their isolation offense gets exposed and they have no plan B.  If individual talent fails, what to do?  Allegedly new coach Larry Drew is trying to add some motion, but it’s hard to see them changing much.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: The United States east of Atlanta crumbles and falls into the sea.

13. Denver Nuggets (10th overall in 2010, 6th offense, 16th defense)

Denver is in a weird place in their development.  10th a year ago, some of that can be attributed to George Karl’s bout with cancer.  Really, this side is not significantly different from the team that outplayed the Lakers for five games in 2009 – and is the best foul drawing team in recent history.  However, health, status all of that is in flux.  Does Carmelo Anthony want out?  He has been heard making noises about a pinkie swear promise with Chris Paul, or Meg Ryan or Amy Adams, I don’t know.  But there is some evidence of unrest.  Their desperately thin frontcourt is in even more peril as Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen have significant knee issues.  While Al Harrington (a good pickup) gives them some floor spacing, he hurts their already meh defense.  The team can shoot though, especially if JR Smith can stay more consistent than he has been, and Ty Lawson has all the makings of a star just waiting to escape the cage his coaches have put him in.  Denver could win the title – the talent is there, but this is very much like what a football preview writer might have said about the Minnesota Vikings.  This could REALLY go in any direction.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Carmelo Anthony stops making doe eyes at the East Coast and plays the basketball he is capable of, their thin big rotation stays healthy and Ty Lawson and JR Smith give them a true energizer dream backcourt to supplement what the old hand of Chauncey Billups can offer.  Denver could win 55 games, they could win 35 … I am totally flummoxed.

 

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The Final Power Rankings and First Round Picks

Process here. Rankings there:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Magic 59 23 104.631 (2) 96.214 (1) 1.75 3.166 (30) 13.333
2 Cavaliers 61 21 104.39 (3) 97.272 (8) 1.75 3.173 (29) 12.041
3 Suns 54 28 107.908 (1) 102.168 (19) 1.75 3.276 (25) 10.766
4 Spurs 50 32 102.717 (9) 97.59 (9) 1.75 3.532 (17) 10.41
5 Jazz 53 29 103.122 (8) 98.527 (10) 1.75 3.586 (13) 9.93
6 Thunder 50 32 101.459 (11) 97.188 (7) 1.75 3.584 (14) 9.604
7 Lakers 57 25 101.152 (13) 97.091 (5) 1.75 3.658 (10) 9.47
8 Hawks 53 29 104.132 (4) 100.085 (15) 1.75 3.381 (23) 9.178
9 Nuggets 53 29 103.777 (6) 100.105 (16) 1.75 3.63 (12) 9.051
10 Celtics 50 32 101.165 (12) 97.178 (6) 1.75 3.258 (27) 8.995
11 Blazers 50 32 103.569 (7) 99.894 (13) 1.75 3.415 (21) 8.84
12 Mavericks 55 27 102.457 (10) 98.973 (12) 1.75 3.472 (20) 8.706
13 Heat 47 35 100.305 (18) 96.849 (4) 1.75 3.219 (28) 8.426
14 Bobcats 44 38 97.408 (24) 96.389 (2) 1.75 3.411 (22) 6.18
15 Bucks 46 36 97.553 (23) 96.462 (3) 1.75 3.258 (26) 6.098
16 Rockets 42 40 100.13 (19) 100.907 (17) 1.75 3.928 (2) 4.901
17 Raptors 40 42 103.869 (5) 104.906 (30) 1.75 3.499 (18) 4.211
18 Bulls 41 41 96.563 (28) 98.573 (11) 1.75 3.568 (15) 3.308
19 Hornets 37 45 100.59 (16) 102.895 (22) 1.75 3.741 (7) 3.187
20 Grizzlies 40 42 100.398 (17) 102.932 (23) 1.75 3.739 (8) 2.955
21 Pacers 32 50 97.062 (26) 99.996 (14) 1.75 3.473 (19) 2.288
22 Warriors 26 56 100.65 (14) 104.321 (28) 1.75 3.897 (3) 1.977
23 Kings 25 57 98.103 (22) 102.032 (18) 1.75 3.868 (4) 1.689
24 Knicks 29 53 100.646 (15) 104.386 (29) 1.75 3.346 (24) 1.355
25 Sixers 27 55 99.066 (20) 103.097 (24) 1.75 3.546 (16) 1.265
26 Wizards 26 56 97.101 (25) 102.302 (20) 1.75 3.633 (11) 0.183
27 Clippers 29 53 96.693 (27) 102.357 (21) 1.75 3.866 (5) -0.048
28 Pistons 27 55 98.198 (21) 104.067 (26) 1.75 3.68 (9) -0.439
29 Timberwolves 15 67 94.652 (29) 104.233 (27) 1.75 4.111 (1) -3.719
30 Nets 12 70 94.115 (30) 103.745 (25) 1.75 3.786 (6) -4.094

A key caveat: With the last month being tanking/amateur hour and good teams being judicious with managing players – I suspect the Lakers and Cavaliers are undervalued. That said, still revealing as we get to the end:

  • The Magic have been the best team the second half of the year.  Took the season for Vince Carter to get integrated, and their defense was lazy earlier in the season.  However, back at #1, just like last year.  Their #2 offense is hard to say has dropped off at all.
  • The Cavaliers got off slow too, but rolled down the stretch save for preserving LeBron a bit.
  • Lakers really staggered to the finish.  They seemed to be shoo-ins for the best record for a while.  They can still right the ship, but with a scant 9 games separating the #1 and $#8 seed in the West who knows?

Now for some quick picks for the first round (power ranking in parens) …

EAST:

Cavaliers (2) vs Bulls (18): Bulls played hard down the stretch, Rose is a terrific PG.  But Cavs defend the position well, and there is LeBron.  Cavs in 5

Celtics (10) vs Heat (13): Celtics after a 27-5 start, are a 23-27 team.  This is not a good team right now, though they have played in stretches.  Wade the best player on the floor.  Heat playing better D than Boston, but it’s a toss up.  Celtics in 7

Magic (1) vs Bobcats (14): Top 2 defenses in the league.  Alas the Magic have offensive skill.  Magic in 5.

Hawks (8) vs Bucks (15):  Hawks have been metsa metsa since a fast start.  However, their efficient size-based offense has been there all year.  Bucks are scrappy, tough defensively, but without Bogut the size match is too problematic.  Hawks in 6

WEST:

Lakers (7) vs Thunder (6): You read that right.  Thunder have the better body of work in terms of indicators even with 9 less wins.  Durant is a prime time scorer.  They are a good defensive club (7th).  The Lakers were the top defensive team when healthy though, and the wins and home court count for something.  If Kobe is ready and effective, they should advance.  But the Thunder will not be pushovers.  Lakers in 6

Nuggets (9) vs Jazz (5): Another upside down series.  Jazz hurt themselves badly slipping out of the home court position by getting whomped by Phoenix.  They have played better basketball than Denver all season, but Denver is still better against good teams (5th, Utah 11th).  And with home court, and Utah with an iffy Boozer, they get the edge despite their own myriad of issues.  Nuggets in 7

Mavericks (12) vs Spurs (4): Mavericks have been close game kings all season.  The Spurs have outpaced them in fundamentals most of the season.  Does this mean they will win?  Not sure.  Dallas won in 5 last year and the matchups favor them in a lot of places.  That said Manu is healthy, and we have not had that for a while.  Spurs in 6

Suns (3) vs Blazers (11):  Love this series.  Lots of matchups up front (Amare vs Aldridge), at the point (Nash vs Miller), subplots (Suns vs the slowest paced team in the game … will Roy be effective).  Suns have been the big overachievers in the league this season – their last two wins have been special.  They are as good offensively as ever.  Can they defend the paint though.  This could go any direction, but I just don’t think the Blazers have the offense without Roy at 90%.  Suns in 7

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Week 17 NBA Power Rankings

Another week in the NBA, the teams continue to reveal their true selves steadily.  The methodology as always is here.  The results?

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Cavaliers 47 14 105.095 (2) 97.007 (7) 1.779 3.138 (26) 13.005
2 Magic 41 20 102.935 (7) 96.431 (4) 1.836 3.357 (22) 11.698
3 Lakers 45 15 101.333 (11) 95.521 (1) 1.575 3.679 (11) 11.067
4 Thunder 35 23 99.833 (15) 95.551 (2) 1.75 3.67 (12) 9.702
5 Jazz 38 22 102.335 (8) 98.347 (11) 1.633 3.968 (3) 9.59
6 Celtics 36 21 100.487 (13) 95.967 (3) 1.842 3.11 (29) 9.472
7 Nuggets 39 21 103.975 (3) 99.87 (14) 1.75 3.509 (17) 9.364
8 Spurs 34 24 102.244 (9) 98.102 (10) 1.629 3.412 (20) 9.183
9 Suns 38 24 106.583 (1) 102.937 (25) 1.806 3.695 (9) 9.147
10 Hawks 38 21 103.573 (5) 99.854 (13) 1.72 3.589 (15) 9.028
11 Mavericks 40 21 101.611 (10) 98.55 (12) 1.836 4.006 (2) 8.903
12 Blazers 36 27 103.46 (6) 100.336 (17) 1.722 3.527 (16) 8.374
13 Heat 29 31 99.346 (17) 97.511 (8) 1.867 3.82 (6) 7.521
14 Rockets 30 29 99.652 (16) 99.98 (15) 1.72 4.483 (1) 5.876
15 Bobcats 28 30 97.041 (25) 96.967 (5) 1.81 3.661 (13) 5.546
16 Bucks 30 29 97.228 (24) 96.981 (6) 1.898 3.001 (30) 5.146
17 Raptors 31 28 103.869 (4) 104.381 (30) 1.72 3.5 (18) 4.708
18 Hornets 31 30 100.24 (14) 101.714 (20) 1.779 3.632 (14) 3.936
19 Grizzlies 30 30 100.709 (12) 102.947 (26) 1.692 3.79 (7) 3.244
20 Bulls 31 29 95.909 (27) 97.894 (9) 1.808 3.334 (23) 3.156
21 Sixers 22 37 99.037 (20) 101.979 (21) 1.839 3.188 (24) 2.085
22 Kings 20 39 98.692 (21) 102.331 (23) 1.78 3.866 (4) 2.006
23 Warriors 17 41 99.057 (19) 102.541 (24) 1.629 3.847 (5) 1.992
24 Clippers 25 35 97.362 (23) 100.823 (18) 1.75 3.49 (19) 1.778
25 Knicks 20 39 99.265 (18) 102.976 (27) 1.602 3.138 (27) 1.028
26 Wizards 21 36 98.367 (22) 102.169 (22) 1.658 3.161 (25) 1.016
27 Pacers 20 39 95.529 (28) 100.087 (16) 1.78 3.116 (28) 0.338
28 Pistons 21 38 96.461 (26) 101.453 (19) 1.72 3.368 (21) 0.096
29 Timberwolves 14 47 94.393 (29) 103.028 (28) 1.779 3.692 (10) -3.164
30 Nets 6 53 92.435 (30) 103.722 (29) 1.78 3.761 (8) -5.747

Obviously the big story of the week was Shaq’s thumb injury – which jeopardizes Cleveland’s long term chances. Playing opposing post players honestly was a key part of why they got Shaq in the first place. That matchup sore is still exposed. Other developments?

  • The Celtics had a fairly disastrous week with their demoralizing loss to Cleveland their ghastly loss to … I can’t even bring it up.  So after being #1 for much of the first half of the year, all the way down to 6 and slip sliding
  • Denver theoretically was churning momentum, but the 2nd half against the Lakers and last night’s loss in Phoenix has hit a road bump.  There is no compelling evidence separating them from the Jazz, despite the promise of last year’s Western Conference Finals appearance.
  • Dallas has caught fire since the trade deadline, and their 4-0 week shows that.  However, they were sufficiently behind #10 that this has merely made them a candidate to crack the Top 10 soon, possibly this week.