Tag Archives: Oklahoma City

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2010 NBA Draft Preview and Offseason Musings

Before we dive into the NBA Draft, a couple of trades worth commenting on:

Golden State Warriors trade Corey Maggette to the Milwaukee Bucks for Charlie Bell and Dan Gadzuric – THIS is a pretty clear talent win for the Bucks.  Maggette gets a reputation as a loser and many critics point to his contract as being an albatross.  Both of these reputations are stupid.  Maggette has been on a lot of losing teams – he is not a transformative player, is a shaky defender and a less than enthusiastic passer.  However, what he can do is flat out score – and he has always been able to flat out score … and does it so efficiently that he absolutely justifies his salary.  The Bucks who need as much offensive punch (especially off the bench) that they can get need a professional scorer.  And all they had to do was trade two crappy players.  Thank God the Warriors are being run by retards (I’m sorry, that is an insult to the handicapped).

New Jersey Nets trade Chris Douglas-Roberts to the Milwaukee Bucks for a 2012 2nd rounder: Basically, the Nets had a team option on CDR, so they could have cut him.  So instead, they trade him for a bag of basketballs.  For the Bucks, who are trying to improve their wing punch with John Salmons testing out free agency – this is another possibility.  CDR has some potential as a rotation player – and it costs them nothing so why not?

Miami Heat trade the 18th pick in the draft and Daquean Cook to the Oklahoma City Thunder for 32nd pick in the draft: The Heat are clearly setting their cap up for a mega free agent bid to play with Dwayne Wade.  They did not need a guaranteed contract.  The Thunder are still being smart so they collect assets.

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Oh how the worm turns in the NBA.  Just as rigor mortis is setting in on the corpse of the season past, we have next year to look forward to already.  Fortunately, unlike the NFL Draft – we all know more of the players here.  I mean I am not perfect here – but it’s not like there are interior linemen that I have to fake having a reasonable opinion on.  Now – last year’s draft class at the time of the draft seemed pretty horrible.  You had Blake Griffin and a bunch of chub.  But as it turned out, Griffin missed the entire season while Brandon Jennings, Tyreke Evans, and Stephen Curry ended up making this one of the great depth classes of recent vintage.

So how did so many fans miss the boat?  Personally, I blame college basketball – whose ego driven coaches, wildly physical post play and defense that discourages movement, have made  it very hard to project kids.  Never has the fundamental gap between the pro and college games been larger.  I mean the 2010 National Champions contain a grand total of one player who I’d bet more than $1 on being a 10 year starter in the Association (hint: it’s not Singler).  But the college game is slower, with more ways to clog the lane.  It is great for shooters (look at how JJ Redick became a National Player of the Year) but real NBA friendly games can be squashed. (calling Ben Howland)  The NBA has created a speed and rhythm game that just requires a different sort of ath-a-lete.  So while this crop of kids seems meh on the surface – there could be a lot of good pros who are being stepped on by slow Hickory High-style college systems.  This draft looks fairly thin talent-wise after five or six players – but let’s give some time.  As always, this is a combination of should and will – I am not trying to GM 30 teams – but I have no inside info.

1. Wizards – John Wall, PG, Kentucky – the clear best pro prospect this year.  He is big, he is fast, and while he is not a great shooter – his shot is not at a bad place fundamentally.  The court vision is there, and at Kentucky he had a knack for giving the team exactly what it needed.

2. Sixers – Evan Turner, SG, Ohio State – mediocre athlete who can’t shoot – but has a load of basketball skills.  He is the best college basketball player of 2009-2010.  Really Sixers don’t need him – but Doug Collins is a terrible coach with projects.  Evan Turner does not need much teaching.  He has a Brandon Roy ceiling – and that is either a good thing or a bad thing depending on how you view it.

3. Nets – Derrick Favors, PF, Georgia Tech – Favors’ numbers are mediocre at Tech.  His guards and coach were AWFUL.  The talent is clear.  Favors is not ready to dominate now, but neither are the Nets.  But this gives the team a pretty good place to start.

4. Timberwolves – Wesley Johnson, SF, Syracuse – I am not really sure what the Timberwolves will do.  If they move Kevin Love or Al Jefferson – DeMarcus Cousins makes sense here.  That said, Johnson is a safe pick.  Runs the floor, good defender.  He is probably not an all star – but a good starter.

5. Kings – Greg Monroe, PF, Georgetown – The Vlade Divac comparison is apt.  So is the homeless man’s Bill Walton.  Super high basketball IQ.  Not a great athlete, but everything he does well has value on a pro team.

6. Warriors – DeMarcus Cousins, C, Kentucky – The best talent in the draft and the biggest character risk.  The Warriors are crazy too – this is a good match.

7. Pistons – Ed Davis, PF, North Carolina – Pistons want size and toughness.  Ed Davis might be neither, but he is the best guy on the board to possibly do it.  If he played with Ty Lawson he’d be a star – but he didn’t.

8. Clippers – Al Farooq Aminu, SF, Wake Forest – Really he is the best value bet for me in this draft.  That is the odds that he can be a superstar that a bookie might give me could make this a real high expected value.  He has the athleticism and shot blocking that tracks well.  He also does not shoot well and has an iffy motor.  But the Clippers should swing for the fences.

9. Jazz – Luke Babitt, SF, Nevada – Babitt is an elite shooter and scorer.  The Jazz need some wing help, and some scoring off the bench.  Also, he is a no nonsense kid – he and Jerry Sloan seem to just make sense.

10. Pacers – Gordon Hayward, SG, Butler – Hooray marketing!  Really the Pacers want to deal this for some guard help.  None of the bigs here are great values.  And it would move merchandise.

11. Hornets – Paul George, SG, Fresno State – this is a ceiling pick.  The Hornets need wing scoring – and when you play with Paul, the chance to be an explosive player are high.  It’s a gamble but worth taking.

12. Grizzlies – Xavier Henry, SG, Kansas – Rudy Gay is almost certainly gone.  There is an opening and Henry has the most upside.

13. Raptors – Cole Aldrich, C, Kansas – the Raptors need size badly.  Aldrich is not a great athlete, but he has the basic skills to have a pretty good NBA career – or at least one with sustained employment.

14. Rockets – Ekpe Udoh, C, Baylor – Yeah he’s 23.  But he is still learning the game and the Rockets need some size to make up for Carl Landry’s new home.

15. Bucks – Patrick Patterson, PF, Kentucky – Patterson is not special, but he has been productive and is a hard worker.  Skiles will appreciate his coachability.

16. Timberwolves – Jordan Crawford, SG, Xavier – Wolves have a chance to load up on wings this draft – here they go

17. Bulls – Avery Bradley, SG, Texas – can back up both guard spots.  Good defender and can shoot at the NBA level

18. Thunder – Daniel Orton, C, Kentucky – Orton is RAW but the athleticism is there.  Thunder have 3 picks and so can shoot the moon a bit.

19. Celtics – Damion James, SF, Texas – Celtics could move out of the draft and try for a title in 2011 – or they could try to move up using Rasheed Wallace’s contract and pending retirement.  Bledsoe has a bit more ceiling possibly and James is a bit of a tweener.  But his motor, defensive skills and maturity make him a fit here.  He can step right in to a good team and be credible.

20. Spurs  – Solomon Alabi, C, Florida State – Obviously this is not Tim Duncan’s replacement.  But it might be Antonio McDyess’.  Alabi has a good hoops IQ and has good shot blocking skill.

21. Thunder – Kevin Serraphin, PF, France – Somebody they can store overseas given three picks.

22. Blazers – Lance Stephenson, SG, Cincinnati – Blazers have enough size.  What they could use is some wing help – Stephenson had an up and down year at Cincy, but the talent is there possibly.

23. Timberwolves – Tibor Pleiss, C, Germany – three picks available, they will stuff one in Europe

24. Hawks – Craig Brackins, PF, Iowa State – his desire is a question,  but his inside/outside game isn’t.  He could really thrive and the Hawks could use the versatility, especially on offense.

25. Grizzlies – Larry Sanders, PF, VCU – has raw skill and could be a shot blocking force.  Grizzlies have 3 picks, can afford to take a flyer.

26. Thunder – Devin Ebanks, SF, WVU – Ebanks can’t shoot.  But he can defend, is an elite athlete and tracked REALLY well last year as a prospect.  There is something there.  So why the hell not?

27. Nets – Jordan Crawford, SG, Xavier – The Nets need TALENT.  Crawford might have attitude problems – but he can score and provide energy.

28. Grizzlies – Greivis Vasquez, SG, Maryland – Vasquez is slow and can’t defend.  But he is a winner – and has so much versatility on the court.  He is a good attitude player.

29. Magic – Dominique Jones, SG, South Florida – the kid stays home.  He might not be a great shooter, but a streaky one.  Magic like floor spacers.

30. Wizards – Dexter Pittman, C, Texas – this is a heart pick.  Obviously his weight is a huge issue.  He had to cut out of the combine process due to an unfathomable tragedy.  But in the right program – and Leonsis and the Wizards can be this program – his talent is undeniable.  Just watch his good games at Texas for proof.  He could be the biggest home run swing of the night.

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The Final Power Rankings and First Round Picks

Process here. Rankings there:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Magic 59 23 104.631 (2) 96.214 (1) 1.75 3.166 (30) 13.333
2 Cavaliers 61 21 104.39 (3) 97.272 (8) 1.75 3.173 (29) 12.041
3 Suns 54 28 107.908 (1) 102.168 (19) 1.75 3.276 (25) 10.766
4 Spurs 50 32 102.717 (9) 97.59 (9) 1.75 3.532 (17) 10.41
5 Jazz 53 29 103.122 (8) 98.527 (10) 1.75 3.586 (13) 9.93
6 Thunder 50 32 101.459 (11) 97.188 (7) 1.75 3.584 (14) 9.604
7 Lakers 57 25 101.152 (13) 97.091 (5) 1.75 3.658 (10) 9.47
8 Hawks 53 29 104.132 (4) 100.085 (15) 1.75 3.381 (23) 9.178
9 Nuggets 53 29 103.777 (6) 100.105 (16) 1.75 3.63 (12) 9.051
10 Celtics 50 32 101.165 (12) 97.178 (6) 1.75 3.258 (27) 8.995
11 Blazers 50 32 103.569 (7) 99.894 (13) 1.75 3.415 (21) 8.84
12 Mavericks 55 27 102.457 (10) 98.973 (12) 1.75 3.472 (20) 8.706
13 Heat 47 35 100.305 (18) 96.849 (4) 1.75 3.219 (28) 8.426
14 Bobcats 44 38 97.408 (24) 96.389 (2) 1.75 3.411 (22) 6.18
15 Bucks 46 36 97.553 (23) 96.462 (3) 1.75 3.258 (26) 6.098
16 Rockets 42 40 100.13 (19) 100.907 (17) 1.75 3.928 (2) 4.901
17 Raptors 40 42 103.869 (5) 104.906 (30) 1.75 3.499 (18) 4.211
18 Bulls 41 41 96.563 (28) 98.573 (11) 1.75 3.568 (15) 3.308
19 Hornets 37 45 100.59 (16) 102.895 (22) 1.75 3.741 (7) 3.187
20 Grizzlies 40 42 100.398 (17) 102.932 (23) 1.75 3.739 (8) 2.955
21 Pacers 32 50 97.062 (26) 99.996 (14) 1.75 3.473 (19) 2.288
22 Warriors 26 56 100.65 (14) 104.321 (28) 1.75 3.897 (3) 1.977
23 Kings 25 57 98.103 (22) 102.032 (18) 1.75 3.868 (4) 1.689
24 Knicks 29 53 100.646 (15) 104.386 (29) 1.75 3.346 (24) 1.355
25 Sixers 27 55 99.066 (20) 103.097 (24) 1.75 3.546 (16) 1.265
26 Wizards 26 56 97.101 (25) 102.302 (20) 1.75 3.633 (11) 0.183
27 Clippers 29 53 96.693 (27) 102.357 (21) 1.75 3.866 (5) -0.048
28 Pistons 27 55 98.198 (21) 104.067 (26) 1.75 3.68 (9) -0.439
29 Timberwolves 15 67 94.652 (29) 104.233 (27) 1.75 4.111 (1) -3.719
30 Nets 12 70 94.115 (30) 103.745 (25) 1.75 3.786 (6) -4.094

A key caveat: With the last month being tanking/amateur hour and good teams being judicious with managing players – I suspect the Lakers and Cavaliers are undervalued. That said, still revealing as we get to the end:

  • The Magic have been the best team the second half of the year.  Took the season for Vince Carter to get integrated, and their defense was lazy earlier in the season.  However, back at #1, just like last year.  Their #2 offense is hard to say has dropped off at all.
  • The Cavaliers got off slow too, but rolled down the stretch save for preserving LeBron a bit.
  • Lakers really staggered to the finish.  They seemed to be shoo-ins for the best record for a while.  They can still right the ship, but with a scant 9 games separating the #1 and $#8 seed in the West who knows?

Now for some quick picks for the first round (power ranking in parens) …

EAST:

Cavaliers (2) vs Bulls (18): Bulls played hard down the stretch, Rose is a terrific PG.  But Cavs defend the position well, and there is LeBron.  Cavs in 5

Celtics (10) vs Heat (13): Celtics after a 27-5 start, are a 23-27 team.  This is not a good team right now, though they have played in stretches.  Wade the best player on the floor.  Heat playing better D than Boston, but it’s a toss up.  Celtics in 7

Magic (1) vs Bobcats (14): Top 2 defenses in the league.  Alas the Magic have offensive skill.  Magic in 5.

Hawks (8) vs Bucks (15):  Hawks have been metsa metsa since a fast start.  However, their efficient size-based offense has been there all year.  Bucks are scrappy, tough defensively, but without Bogut the size match is too problematic.  Hawks in 6

WEST:

Lakers (7) vs Thunder (6): You read that right.  Thunder have the better body of work in terms of indicators even with 9 less wins.  Durant is a prime time scorer.  They are a good defensive club (7th).  The Lakers were the top defensive team when healthy though, and the wins and home court count for something.  If Kobe is ready and effective, they should advance.  But the Thunder will not be pushovers.  Lakers in 6

Nuggets (9) vs Jazz (5): Another upside down series.  Jazz hurt themselves badly slipping out of the home court position by getting whomped by Phoenix.  They have played better basketball than Denver all season, but Denver is still better against good teams (5th, Utah 11th).  And with home court, and Utah with an iffy Boozer, they get the edge despite their own myriad of issues.  Nuggets in 7

Mavericks (12) vs Spurs (4): Mavericks have been close game kings all season.  The Spurs have outpaced them in fundamentals most of the season.  Does this mean they will win?  Not sure.  Dallas won in 5 last year and the matchups favor them in a lot of places.  That said Manu is healthy, and we have not had that for a while.  Spurs in 6

Suns (3) vs Blazers (11):  Love this series.  Lots of matchups up front (Amare vs Aldridge), at the point (Nash vs Miller), subplots (Suns vs the slowest paced team in the game … will Roy be effective).  Suns have been the big overachievers in the league this season – their last two wins have been special.  They are as good offensively as ever.  Can they defend the paint though.  This could go any direction, but I just don’t think the Blazers have the offense without Roy at 90%.  Suns in 7

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Week 18 NBA Power Rankings

The dog days of March and April are upon us as the teams head towards the finish line and prepare for the playoffs.  For this week’s feature, we will also examine the conference standings … let’s call it our bracketology – as always the methodology is here:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Cavaliers 50 15 104.814 (2) 96.847 (6) 1.777 3.009 (27) 12.753
2 Magic 44 20 103.038 (7) 96.064 (4) 1.805 3.243 (26) 12.022
3 Lakers 46 18 101.213 (11) 95.914 (2) 1.641 3.755 (9) 10.695
4 Jazz 40 22 102.682 (8) 98.33 (10) 1.637 3.966 (4) 9.955
5 Nuggets 42 21 104.31 (3) 99.658 (13) 1.667 3.54 (16) 9.858
6 Celtics 40 21 100.59 (13) 95.627 (1) 1.836 2.927 (30) 9.726
7 Spurs 36 25 102.384 (10) 98.101 (9) 1.664 3.471 (19) 9.417
8 Thunder 38 24 100.022 (15) 96.022 (3) 1.806 3.57 (15) 9.376
9 Suns 40 25 107.069 (1) 103.091 (25) 1.777 3.597 (13) 9.352
10 Hawks 40 23 104.003 (4) 100.176 (15) 1.722 3.459 (20) 9.009
11 Mavericks 44 21 102.427 (9) 99.005 (12) 1.831 3.64 (11) 8.892
12 Blazers 37 28 103.581 (6) 100.367 (16) 1.723 3.539 (17) 8.476
13 Heat 32 31 99.769 (16) 97.791 (8) 1.778 3.92 (5) 7.676
14 Bucks 33 29 97.406 (23) 96.5 (5) 1.863 2.996 (28) 5.765
15 Rockets 31 31 99.58 (18) 99.76 (14) 1.75 4.181 (1) 5.751
16 Bobcats 30 31 96.965 (24) 96.884 (7) 1.779 3.808 (7) 5.667
17 Raptors 32 29 103.876 (5) 104.427 (30) 1.664 3.428 (21) 4.541
18 Hornets 32 32 100.52 (14) 102.256 (22) 1.75 3.623 (12) 3.637
19 Grizzlies 33 31 100.842 (12) 102.65 (24) 1.695 3.587 (14) 3.475
20 Bulls 31 31 96.203 (27) 98.452 (11) 1.75 3.381 (23) 2.882
21 Kings 21 42 98.831 (21) 102.482 (23) 1.833 4.038 (2) 2.221
22 Sixers 23 39 99.031 (20) 102.142 (21) 1.863 3.334 (24) 2.086
23 Warriors 17 46 99.463 (19) 103.537 (28) 1.778 4.032 (3) 1.736
24 Knicks 22 41 99.642 (17) 103.136 (26) 1.556 2.965 (29) 1.028
25 Clippers 25 38 96.914 (25) 101.384 (18) 1.722 3.717 (10) 0.97
26 Wizards 21 39 97.744 (22) 101.984 (20) 1.692 3.288 (25) 0.739
27 Pacers 20 43 95.487 (28) 100.523 (17) 1.889 3.422 (22) 0.275
28 Pistons 22 41 96.805 (26) 101.964 (19) 1.722 3.523 (18) 0.086
29 Timberwolves 14 50 94.615 (29) 103.239 (27) 1.75 3.792 (8) -3.082
30 Nets 7 56 92.795 (30) 103.938 (29) 1.778 3.887 (6) -5.478

Some quick thoughts:

  • After an authoritative loss to Denver, despite the 3-1 week, the Thunder back to 8th.  Really the key are the margins now – virtually no difference between 4 and 10.  Unlike last year the oligarchy is less obvious.
  • Mavericks of course are the hottest team in the league but it has not shown up here as they are still 11th.  Fact is, scoring margins are better leading indicators and they have not really been authoritative against their competition – quite a bit of which is not good.

As far as what leading indicators say about the playoffs if they began today?

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Cavaliers vs (8) Bulls … (#1 power rankings vs #22)  Rose is a good player, but the Bulls 27th ranked offense is no match for Cleveland, Cavs in 4

(4) Hawks vs (5) Bucks … (#10 vs #14) Closer than it looks.  Bucks have turned a corner (#5 defense) – especially with Salmons in the backcourt.  Jennings is learning – and performance has suffered, but Hawks in 6 makes sense

(2) Magic vs (7) Heat … (#2 vs #13) Heat are very average but Dwayne Wade isn’t.  Enough to steal a game at least.  Magic in 5

(3) Celtics vs (6) Raptors … (#6 vs #17) The resistable force (Celtics quaint 13th ranked offense) against the highly movable object (the Raptors 30th ranked defense).  Fun but Celtics in 5.

Cavaliers over Hawks in 5, Magic over Celtics in 6 … Cavaliers over Magic in 7 – if Shaq is healthy to help the matchups out, but it’s a toss up series

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Lakers vs (8) Blazers … (#3 vs #12) … shows you the differences at the bottom of the conference.  Blazers are dead here, but will show some character – Lakers in 6

(4) Jazz vs (5) Suns … (#4 vs #9) … Jazz just a bad matchup with their size.  Jazz in 5

(2) Mavericks vs (7) Spurs … (#11 vs #7) … metrics to be tested here.  Mavs have the wins, Spurs indicators are better.  If Duncan is healthy as is Parker – the Spurs are STILL better – seriously. Spurs in 6

(3) Nuggets vs (6) Thunder … (#5 vs #8) … best series of the first round, Melo v Durant.  Nuggets stomped them this past week.  But for a whole series the storylines are everywhere.  Nuggets in 7

Lakers over Jazz in 5, Nuggets over Spurs in 6 … Lakers over Nuggets in 7

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Week 16 NBA Power Rankings

Well, technically this is Week 17, but since last Tuesday was the first game back from the All Star break and we supplied some all star break rankings then, I will cheat and keep the sequence going.  As always, you can find the methodology here:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Cavaliers 43 14 104.475 (3) 97.085 (7) 1.781 3.178 (27) 12.348
2 Magic 38 19 102.294 (7) 96.261 (4) 1.781 3.424 (21) 11.238
3 Lakers 42 14 101.542 (11) 95.708 (3) 1.563 3.643 (12) 11.041
4 Celtics 35 19 100.485 (13) 95.385 (1) 1.944 3.24 (24) 10.285
5 Thunder 33 21 99.71 (16) 95.461 (2) 1.815 3.688 (11) 9.753
6 Jazz 36 20 101.985 (9) 97.929 (11) 1.625 4.051 (2) 9.732
7 Nuggets 37 19 104.284 (4) 99.731 (14) 1.688 3.485 (16) 9.726
8 Spurs 31 23 102.036 (8) 97.821 (10) 1.62 3.29 (23) 9.125
9 Hawks 35 20 103.565 (5) 100.136 (16) 1.782 3.831 (8) 9.042
10 Suns 34 23 106.384 (1) 103.048 (26) 1.842 3.643 (13) 8.821
11 Mavericks 36 21 101.571 (10) 98.835 (12) 1.842 3.895 (5) 8.473
12 Heat 29 28 100.042 (15) 97.394 (8) 1.904 3.88 (7) 8.431
13 Blazers 32 26 102.841 (6) 100.715 (18) 1.569 3.941 (4) 7.636
14 Rockets 28 27 99.286 (17) 99.346 (13) 1.782 4.225 (1) 5.947
15 Bobcats 27 28 97.223 (23) 96.841 (5) 1.782 3.539 (14) 5.703
16 Raptors 31 24 104.498 (2) 103.936 (30) 1.718 3.186 (26) 5.466
17 Bucks 27 28 96.52 (25) 97.033 (6) 1.845 3.002 (28) 4.334
18 Hornets 30 26 100.164 (14) 101.119 (19) 1.75 3.306 (22) 4.102
19 Bulls 29 27 95.741 (27) 97.47 (9) 1.875 3.429 (20) 3.576
20 Grizzlies 28 27 100.652 (12) 103.053 (27) 1.718 3.766 (10) 3.083
21 Warriors 16 39 99.268 (19) 102.457 (24) 1.718 3.888 (6) 2.417
22 Kings 18 38 98.668 (21) 102.575 (25) 1.875 4.01 (3) 1.978
23 Sixers 21 34 98.923 (20) 101.684 (21) 1.782 2.956 (30) 1.976
24 Clippers 23 33 96.974 (24) 100.438 (17) 1.75 3.487 (15) 1.773
25 Knicks 19 36 99.273 (18) 102.083 (22) 1.527 2.99 (29) 1.707
26 Wizards 20 34 98.288 (22) 102.367 (23) 1.685 3.485 (17) 1.091
27 Pacers 19 37 95.073 (28) 99.921 (15) 1.813 3.234 (25) 0.198
28 Pistons 20 35 96.399 (26) 101.661 (20) 1.591 3.452 (18) -0.219
29 Timberwolves 13 44 94.715 (29) 103.244 (28) 1.719 3.449 (19) -3.361
30 Nets 5 51 92.102 (30) 103.75 (29) 1.813 3.773 (9) -6.063

What has the first week back from the break taught us?

  • Trades take time.  Cleveland made the huge Jamison deal then promptly lost 3 in a row.  Their lead in rating score dipped from 15.9% over 2nd place to 9%.  Does this mean life is over?  Of course not, but there is an adjustment period, and if it is long enough, there might be ramifications in April.
  • The Celtics if they defend like they did against LA and Portland, can beat anybody.  If they defend like they did against Denver, not so much.
  • Denver provides the shock and awe, but in terms of power – they are the 3rd best team in their DIVISION.  Their defense is only middling – while the Thunder look extremely capable.
  • The Warriors are trying to lose given how Nellie coaches that bunch …  but only 21st – they can’t even do that properly.
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Week 12 NBA Power Rankings

The day after the NBA’s salute to Martin Luther King (as Charles Barkley pointed out, for all he meant to American, how many people realized he did not even see his 40th birthday), the rankings.  Here is the formula.  Here are the results:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Cavaliers 31 11 104.054 (4) 96.332 (5) 2.083 3.014 (27) 12.819
2 Celtics 27 12 102.533 (9) 95.392 (3) 1.885 2.632 (29) 11.658
3 Spurs 25 15 103.495 (7) 97.242 (7) 1.488 3.076 (25) 10.816
4 Lakers 32 9 101.118 (12) 94.929 (1) 1.28 3.33 (22) 10.8
5 Magic 26 15 102.233 (10) 97.141 (6) 1.963 3.235 (24) 10.291
6 Hawks 26 14 104.345 (2) 99.929 (17) 1.663 3.557 (16) 9.636
7 Mavericks 27 14 101.462 (11) 98.126 (9) 1.793 4.107 (4) 9.236
8 Nuggets 26 14 104.225 (3) 99.46 (14) 1.663 2.61 (30) 9.038
9 Thunder 23 18 99.401 (19) 96.199 (4) 1.707 4.057 (5) 8.966
10 Suns 24 18 106.478 (1) 103.523 (28) 1.917 3.955 (7) 8.826
11 Blazers 25 17 103.792 (6) 100.308 (18) 1.583 3.387 (20) 8.455
12 Jazz 23 18 100.604 (13) 99.045 (11) 1.622 4.109 (3) 7.29
13 Heat 20 19 100.204 (14) 99.185 (12) 1.615 4.405 (1) 7.038
14 Rockets 23 18 99.611 (18) 99.396 (13) 1.963 4.332 (2) 6.51
15 Bobcats 20 19 96.07 (25) 94.975 (2) 1.615 3.639 (14) 6.348
16 Raptors 21 20 104.014 (5) 104.84 (30) 1.878 3.939 (8) 4.991
17 Grizzlies 22 18 102.641 (8) 103.381 (27) 1.75 3.694 (13) 4.704
18 Clippers 18 22 98.69 (22) 99.83 (16) 1.575 3.513 (18) 3.948
19 Knicks 17 24 99.366 (20) 100.466 (19) 1.707 2.964 (28) 3.572
20 Hornets 21 19 99.642 (17) 101.588 (20) 1.838 3.288 (23) 3.179
21 Bucks 16 23 95.271 (27) 97.657 (8) 1.885 3.443 (19) 2.942
22 Kings 15 25 99.984 (15) 102.686 (23) 1.663 3.575 (15) 2.535
23 Sixers 13 27 99.7 (16) 103.038 (25) 1.838 3.348 (21) 1.848
24 Wizards 14 26 98.42 (23) 101.969 (21) 1.838 3.547 (17) 1.836
25 Warriors 12 27 99.046 (21) 103.211 (26) 1.885 3.749 (11) 1.468
26 Bulls 18 21 94.28 (28) 98.28 (10) 1.615 3.723 (12) 1.338
27 Pacers 14 26 95.284 (26) 99.826 (15) 1.75 3.053 (26) 0.262
28 Pistons 14 26 96.304 (24) 102.286 (22) 1.838 3.908 (9) -0.236
29 Timberwolves 9 33 93.536 (29) 102.973 (24) 1.75 3.752 (10) -3.935
30 Nets 3 37 91.536 (30) 103.842 (29) 1.838 4.001 (6) -6.467

Some insights as the Nets continue their 6 WIN pace:

  • Obviously the Magic’s latest struggled were highlighted with their national TV loss to the Lakers last night.  However, just like last season, the analysis of the Magic was more or less wrong.  Last year, writers talked about Turkoglu and three pointers – but the story was really the top ranked defense in the league on a possession basis.  This year, 6th is still good, but it is a distinct step down – and it has shown.
  • After last years decrepit bottom of the Western Conference, it is kind of amazing that only the Timberwolves and Nets are shaping up as restaurant quality bad.  Yeah the Warriors and Sixers show stinkage, but it feels like 30 win stink, and certainly not the rancid smell coming off the Nets. (BTW: the Nets are not nearly untalented enough to be a 6 win team – that is why the Sixers 9-73 season is so amazing, it is hard to be that unlucky)
  • Thunder’s huge win at Atlanta last night get them to not just 23-18, but one with a good defense, which seems to portend better for postseason success.  Kevin Durant’s crazy natural scoring ability might be just enough offense to be a dangerous 1st round floater if they get in.  Both conferences bottoms are hypercompetitive this year – everyone (including me) thought the West’s Top 9 were an iron lock, but a LOT of teams had a right to dream.
by

Week 7 NBA Power Rankings

Without further ado (methodology here):

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Celtics 20 4 103.741 (5) 93.314 (2) 1.896 2.112 (29) 14.435
2 Hawks 16 5 109.036 (1) 99.356 (15) 1.667 2.624 (27) 13.97
3 Lakers 18 4 100.97 (13) 92.795 (1) 0.795 3.253 (19) 12.224
4 Cavaliers 17 7 102.201 (9) 95.732 (4) 1.896 2.75 (24) 11.114
5 Mavericks 18 7 101.66 (10) 95.761 (5) 1.82 2.749 (25) 10.467
6 Spurs 12 9 103.45 (6) 97.993 (10) 1.167 3.804 (14) 10.428
7 Nuggets 18 7 104.487 (3) 98.253 (13) 1.82 1.605 (30) 9.659
8 Magic 18 7 102.595 (8) 98.202 (11) 1.96 3.018 (21) 9.372
9 Suns 16 8 106.655 (2) 103.462 (26) 2.333 3.284 (18) 8.81
10 Thunder 12 11 98.124 (21) 96.004 (6) 1.674 4.818 (2) 8.612
11 Blazers 14 11 101.449 (12) 97.502 (8) 1.82 2.625 (26) 8.393
12 Rockets 13 10 99.661 (17) 98.364 (14) 2.13 4.75 (3) 8.177
13 Jazz 15 10 101.625 (11) 100.487 (19) 1.4 4.441 (5) 6.979
14 Heat 11 11 100.553 (15) 100.396 (18) 1.432 4.102 (10) 5.691
15 Kings 10 12 102.739 (7) 102.692 (23) 1.591 3.024 (20) 4.661
16 Bobcats 9 13 92.878 (27) 94.014 (3) 1.75 3.979 (12) 4.593
17 Pistons 11 12 98.797 (19) 100.26 (17) 1.674 4.04 (11) 4.251
18 Bucks 11 11 97.128 (24) 97.238 (7) 1.591 2.587 (28) 4.068
19 Raptors 11 15 103.942 (4) 107.348 (30) 1.885 4.336 (6) 2.814
20 Knicks 8 15 100.12 (16) 102.912 (24) 1.674 3.93 (13) 2.812
21 Clippers 10 13 96.232 (25) 97.709 (9) 1.217 2.955 (23) 2.695
22 Wizards 7 15 97.181 (23) 100.754 (20) 1.75 4.115 (9) 2.292
23 Grizzlies 10 14 100.842 (14) 104.377 (29) 1.896 3.645 (16) 2.006
24 Pacers 8 14 95.032 (26) 98.23 (12) 1.75 2.974 (22) 1.527
25 Hornets 10 13 98.542 (20) 103.601 (27) 1.826 4.641 (4) 1.409
26 Sixers 6 18 99.144 (18) 103.749 (28) 1.75 4.153 (7) 1.298
27 Warriors 7 17 97.817 (22) 103.043 (25) 2.188 3.683 (15) 0.644
28 Bulls 8 14 91.701 (28) 100.252 (16) 1.909 4.927 (1) -1.714
29 Timberwolves 4 21 91.416 (29) 102.219 (22) 1.82 4.126 (8) -4.857
30 Nets 2 22 89.323 (30) 101.588 (21) 2.188 3.561 (17) -6.517

Some observatiions:

  • Celtics still at #1.  Yes, the recent schedule is soft, and their overall schedule is not impressive, especially playing in the ghastly Atlantic Division.  However, they are winning road games with a slightly road heavy schedule and only 1 road loss.  Compare this to the Lakers, with their extremely home tilted schedule.  Even with a better schedule, the road parameter offsets things.
  • Timberwolves are playing better lately.  Since their first two wins, the Nets are now firmly in the toilet.
  • The surprise Top 10 team now is no longer the Rockets, but the OKC Thunder, behind the rise of Kevin Durant.  Only 12-11, but against the #2 schedule in the league and a strong defense (#6 overall).