Tag Archives: Philadelphia

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #2

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , ,

Well, since the last time we did this report, the league has crammed in another 116 games.  As we had pointed out then, the effects of the lockout and the accelerated offseason showed in some pretty shoddy basketball.  Well with more data, through 241 games the league PPP is still at 0.998, a far cry from last year’s 1.04.  Put another way, currently only 6 teams are above that number this season compared to 15 a year ago at this time.  Just like last week, we can see other metrics.

  • Turnover Rate: Last Year: 15.3% of possessions, This Year: 16.0%
  • TS%: Last Year: 54%, This Year: 52.1%
  • Shots per possession: Last Year: 0.962, This Year: 0.958.

With even two more weeks, the trends have been getting worse, instead of better.  The turnovers remain up, while the shooting is going down, and so the leaguewide scoring has gone down with it.  Just like we mentioned last time, it is tempting to attribute this to great defense – but given the lack of cohesion on so many rosters and the limited time together, it feels a lot like poor offense is much more to blame.  One place this might be evident is leaguewide foul shooting.  A year ago it was 76.4%, while this year it is down to 74.5%.  There is no reason for this to be the case other than guys just shooting poorly.  The league 3P% (35.6 to 34.0) has dipped as well.  So if you think that there have been a lot of low scoring, high turnover, poor shooting games – it’s not just you.

That said, despite the hide your eyes bad level of offensive play, and the way too aggressive schedule – the league is starting to unfold.  The latest rankings are in a permanent home this year, so hopefully you can skip right to the good stuff without reading all this jibberish.  However, if you are reading this – might as well get some observations out of the way:

  1. The Sixers hold the number one position again.  Granted, their losses to the Knicks and Heat do not give much confidence that this is the team’s true level.  However, they have clobbered the flotsam on their schedule.  120-89 over the Wizards, 112-85 over the Kings, etc etc.  This has led to that very lofty league’s #1 defensive ranking.  The Sixers are still excelling at preventing good looks, as their league best TS% allowed shows.  In particular, they continue to do a sensational job at limiting high value shots – leading the league in fewest three pointers allowed and 3rd in FT rate allowed.  That said, in the blowout loss to Miami, the Sixers allowed 54% shooting, 7 threes made in 89 possessions and 21 FTs, all much higher than their lofty levels, and all actually closer to last in the league than anything.  The Sixers seem to be above their heads, but the empirical case for them is still strong.
  2. This early in the season it is interesting to note teams whose rankings and record do not match.  A glaring case is the Indiana Pacers, whom the writer-sphere seems to think is a team to watch and whatever.  Certainly their depth is a virtue in this short season, and they have a number of good, close wins – last night at the Lakers most prominently.  The defense has been excellent, in particular leading the league in FG defense.  Without any other sensational fundamentals, their 41% FG allowed has carried them to the league’s 5th rated defense.  However, their scoring margin has not been that eye popping, mostly because of a gang which so far has not shot straight.  The 41% FG allowed is great.  The 41.9% FG of their own?  Yikes.  Fortunately, they have shot the three well (4th in the league and could stand to shoot it more) and have been one of the best teams in the league at converting at the foul line.  This has propped them up to 23rd in TS%, still not good, especially with the team being a pedestrian 26th in shots per possession.  The Pacers need to crank up the efficiency on that end of the floor.
  3. The big mover in a good way though has clearly been the Grizzlies – which is particularly surprising given the extended absence of Zach Randolph.  As you recall, last year’s late run sans Rudy Gay was driven by almost a 1976 style of play with very few three pointers and a maniacal attention to getting inside.  What is interesting is that much of their offensive style has not changed – actually they have kind of turned into the 2008-2010 Boston Celtics.  They are still not shooting the three (second from the bottom in threes per possession), they don’t get to the line much – but they shoot the twos very well, 4th in overall FG% and that has kept their TS% in the middle of the pack despite being only average at generating shots (16th – this is better tham the Celtics normally do since the Grizzlies actually crash the boards and limit turnovers).  The drop in shot generation and getting to the line has limited the offensive bonanza that their FG% would portend.  Z-Bo clearly helps in both areas.  Just as clearly, he doesn’t help play defense – and the Grizzlies have continued to be an elite turnover generating team – the Tony Allen Experience indeed – and that has been more than sufficient to offset any defensive rebounding help Z-Bo offered.  The Grizzlies were the best team in the league a season ago at preventing looks at the basket.  Now, that is not the case, but they have managed to stay a respectable 7th.

As far as the rankings through the games of 1/22/12? (Rankings from the first report – 1/8/12  – in parentheses):

  1. (1) Sixers (11-5)
  2. (5) Bulls (15-3)
  3. (3) Heat (11-5)
  4. (6) Hawks (12-5)
  5. (10) Thunder (13-3)
  6. (4) Nuggets (12-5)
  7. (9) Lakers (10-8)
  8. (13) Jazz (10-5) Suns (4-4)
  9. (16) Mavericks (10-7)
  10. (2) Blazers (9-7)
  11. (24) Grizzlies (9-6)
  12. (17) Magic (11-4)
  13. (12) Spurs (10-7)
  14. (7) Clippers (9-6)
  15. (14) Pacers (11-4)
  16. (11) Timberwolves (7-9)
  17. (19) Rockets (9-7)
  18. (8) Suns (6-9)
  19. (20) Celtics (6-9)
  20. (18) Hornets (3-13)
  21. (23) Bucks (6-9)
  22. (22) Warriors (5-10)
  23. (25) Knicks (6-10)
  24. (15) Raptors (4-13)
  25. (21) Cavaliers (6-9)
  26. (29) Nets (5-11)
  27. (28) Kings (6-11)
  28. (27) Pistons (4-13)
  29. (30) Wizards (2-14)
  30. (26) Bobcats (3-14)

Anyway, hopefully the season report will be a semi-regular feature.  Even still, the rankings will be updated at least once a week.

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #1

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , ,

So, let me get this straight.  We are trying to squeeze in 66 games in 4 months, instead of the normal 82 games in 6 – all of this with a two week training camp and offseason?  And the basketball was going to be good?  Ummm … ok.  Yeah, the Christmas games between New York and Boston and the Lakers and the Bulls were false alarms apparently – as we have had some really crappy basketball to start the year.  How crappy?  Well, last year overall we were averaging 1.045 points per possession.  Right now, the number is 0.998.  Put simply, was was 27th a year ago is 15th right now – yeeah.  So if you thought the points have dropped off (with the pace staying the same), you’re right.  Even if we just compare the first 125 games of the league season (how many games have been played to date), last season we had 1.033 points per possession.  1.033 this year would place you at 8th in the league.  Compare some other stats across the last two season’s first 125 games:

  • Turnover Rate: Last Year: 15.9% of possessions, This Year: 15.9%
  • TS%: Last Year: 54%, This Year: 52%
  • Shots per possession: Last Year: 0.98, This Year: 0.96.

Basically the game has slowed, down – teams are shooting less efficiently, and getting fewer looks at the basket.  It is tempting to salute defense, but this early in the season – one thinks that it is more shoddy play than high quality defending.

That said, despite the hide your eyes bad level of offensive play, and the way too aggressive schedule – the league is starting to unfold.  The latest rankings are in a permanent home this year, so hopefully you can skip right to the good stuff without reading all this jibberish.  However, if you are reading this – might as well get some observations out of the way:

  1. Yes, that is right, the Sixers start out at #1.  You get through a five game road trip to start the season with just two losses and have a +15 normalized scoring margin?  You’re doing something right.  As we know, Doug Collins – the Al Dunlap of NBA Coaches – took this merry band of misfits into a playoff team a year ago, and with almost no personnel changes – what is this?  The Sixers have the league’s top offense AND league’s top defense, and the way they have done both is a study in contrasts.  On offense, it has been a possession based strategy – the Sixers turn the ball over less than anybody, and have ended up 2nd in the league in shots per possession.  Take a pretty good 6th in TS%, and you have a team that is scoring at a very high level.  On defense, they have struggled taking the ball away or preventing offensive rebounds.  This could cause a problem down the road, but their top ranked TS% defense has held up its end of the bargain.  They have been very strong in all phases of ball shooting defense – tops in FG defense, tops in fewest FTs allowed, tops in fewest three point looks.
  2. The Heat of course were the favorites entering, and have done nothing to dissuade those bullish about them.  One obvious thing the Heat have changes tactically is getting out and running.  Their pace has risen from 21st to tops in the league – and so have the points, as they are still a good offensive team.   The pace increase has come from obviously their own priorities, but also their league leading turnover forcing defense – lot of chances to get into the open floor.  That said, there are some things to clean up – in particular trouble defending the 3 and fouling too much.  But the Heat are the league’s best TS%, and it is hard to say a whole lot bad about them.  The win at Atlanta with a skeleton crew and no James or Wade was particularly impressive.
  3. On the other end of the spectrum is the local entry, the Washington Wizards.  They are the league’s worst offense – by 4 points over 29th place.  To put it another way, the difference between 29 and 30 is larger than the difference between #29 and #25.  The Wizards badness on offense is a bit of a surprise with one of the league’s best offensive coaches in Flip Saunders and the Point Guard of the Future in John Wall.  However, John Wall has just been a dreadful shooter, and the Wizards in general do not seem to be getting good shots.  They are bad at shooting in general, and shoot two many contested two pointers – consider they are 29th in three point rate and 24th in FT attempts.  The Wizards have a knack for avoiding all high efficiency scoring – and as a result they are 30th in the league with a thud in TS%.

As far as the rankings through the games of 1/8/12?

  1. Sixers (5-2)
  2. Blazers (6-2)
  3. Heat (8-1)
  4. Nuggets (6-3)
  5. Bulls (7-2)
  6. Hawks (6-3)
  7. Clippers (4-2)
  8. Suns (4-4)
  9. Lakers (6-4)
  10. Thunder (8-2)
  11. Timberwolves (3-5)
  12. Spurs (6-3)
  13. Jazz (5-3)
  14. Pacers (6-2)
  15. Raptors (3-5)
  16. Mavericks (4-5)
  17. Magic (6-3)
  18. Hornets (3-6)
  19. Rockets (2-6)
  20. Celtics (4-4)
  21. Cavaliers (4-4)
  22. Warriors (2-6)
  23. Bucks (2-6)
  24. Grizzlies (3-5)
  25. Knicks (4-4)
  26. Bobcats (2-6)
  27. Pistons (2-6)
  28. Kings (3-6)
  29. Nets (2-7)
  30. Wizards (0-8)

Anyway, hopefully the season report will be a semi-regular feature.  Even still, the rankings will be updated at least once a week.

2011 NFL Power Rankings #3

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Another week, another number one bites the dust.  Of course, as the underlying quality of the teams gets revealed, some of the movement in the rankings is explained there.  Also – now with 4 games down, the “good team” criteria kicks in.  So if a team has at least played 1/3 of their schedule (1 game so far) against > .500 RPI teams, the games count in that comparison criteria.  Anyway, at number one is probably the people’s number one:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Packers 4 0 0.802 (1) 19.875 (2) 31
2 Lions 4 0 0.776 (2) 15.104 (5) 30
3 Patriots 3 1 0.696 (5) 17.979 (3) 27
4 Bills 3 1 0.698 (4) 13.521 (6) 27
5 Saints 3 1 0.724 (3) 17.208 (4) 27
6 Titans 3 1 0.651 (6) 12.063 (8) 26
7 Ravens 3 1 0.651 (6) 21.292 (1) 26
8 Texans 3 1 0.63 (9) 12.375 (7) 23
9 Cowboys 2 2 0.573 (13) 12 (9) 23
10 49ers 3 1 0.599 (11) 8.083 (10) 21
11 Redskins 3 1 0.641 (8) 6.833 (13) 20
12 Raiders 2 2 0.542 (15) 7.938 (11) 19
13 Jets 2 2 0.526 (17) 6.938 (12) 18
14 Bucs 3 1 0.554 (14) 3.917 (18) 18
15 Giants 3 1 0.618 (10) 6.625 (15) 17
16 Bengals 2 2 0.516 (19) 6.563 (16) 16
17 Bears 2 2 0.49 (20) 6.792 (14) 16
18 Steelers 2 2 0.526 (17) 4.188 (17) 12
19 Broncos 1 3 0.401 (22) 1.917 (20) 12
20 Chargers 3 1 0.583 (12) -1.229 (23) 9
21 Falcons 2 2 0.536 (16) -2.75 (26) 8
22 Jaguars 1 3 0.354 (25) -6.292 (27) 7
23 Eagles 1 3 0.354 (24) 1.042 (21) 6
24 Browns 2 2 0.406 (21) -6.333 (28) 5
25 Panthers 1 3 0.333 (26) 0.042 (22) 5
26 Cardinals 1 3 0.297 (28) 3.208 (19) 5
27 Seahawks 1 3 0.302 (27) -8.167 (29) 3
28 Dolphins 0 4 0.234 (30) -2.208 (24) 2
29 Vikings 0 4 0.255 (29) -2.396 (25) 2
30 Chiefs 1 3 0.359 (23) -12.063 (32) 1
31 Colts 0 4 0.214 (32) -9.208 (30) 0
32 Rams 0 4 0.229 (31) -10.354 (31) 0

Notes?

  • Detroit leaps to #2 both by staying unbeaten and beating a team who has been well regarded so far.  Dallas, #9 on this list, is only 2-2, but has played four good opponents.  They are just a bit behind Green Bay, though I think it is fair to say GB passes the eye test as well as the numerical one.
  • Baltimore, with the best adjusted scoring margin in the league, seems to have the most upside of any team on the list.  They have shown a propensity to score, though the Sunday game against the Jets was a different deal with all those returns and whatnot.
  • It is impossible to write this without mentioning the Eagles, suddenly 1-3 and 2 games off the pace in the NFC East.  Given the crazy level of turnover they underwent, it stands to reason that they will be a better team in Week 10 than now.  However, the team has to put some games away, or it might be too late.  This is not the NBA or baseball, where you have 50 games to iron things out.

2010 NFL Power Rankings – Final

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Well, one week of the playoffs is already in the can … that said, for posterity’s sake, here are the final numbers:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Patriots 14 2 0 17.09 3.481 2 1
2 Packers 10 6 0 13.324 2.745 6 3
3 Steelers 12 4 0 12.965 2.653 9 4
4 Falcons 13 3 0 10.79 1.353 22 5
5 Chargers 9 7 0 9.833 0.833 24 2
6 Ravens 12 4 0 8.99 1.803 16 7
7 Jets 11 5 0 8.251 2.329 11 8
8 Eagles 10 6 0 7.571 2.164 12 6
9 Saints 11 5 0 6.634 0.29 28 9
10 Colts 10 6 0 6.559 1.872 14 10
11 Bears 11 5 0 6.182 1.666 20 13
12 Raiders 8 8 0 4.792 1.495 21 15
13 Giants 10 6 0 4.647 0.475 25 11
14 Titans 6 10 0 4.588 1.854 15 12
15 Lions 6 10 0 3.851 2.851 5 16
16 Chiefs 10 6 0 3.771 -0.479 30 14
17 Bucs 10 6 0 3.59 0.403 27 21
18 Texans 6 10 0 1.895 2.458 10 19
19 Dolphins 7 9 0 1.302 3.302 3 17
20 Cowboys 6 10 0 1.125 1.797 17 20
21 Browns 5 11 0 0.733 2.671 7 18
22 Bengals 4 12 0 0.317 3.755 1 27
23 Vikings 6 10 0 0.218 2.656 8 24
24 49ers 6 10 0 -0.447 0.459 26 28
25 Redskins 6 10 0 -0.87 1.974 13 26
26 Rams 7 9 0 -1.355 -0.871 31 25
27 Jaguars 8 8 0 -1.423 0.952 23 22
28 Bills 4 12 0 -3.284 3.231 4 23
29 Seahawks 7 9 0 -3.974 0.151 29 29
30 Broncos 4 12 0 -4.008 1.773 18 30
31 Cardinals 5 11 0 -8.242 -0.945 32 31
32 Panthers 2 14 0 -9.675 1.732 19 32

If we used the raw numbers from this thing for the wild card round, we would have had (without adjusting for home field):

Saints by 10.6 over the Seahawks, Jets by 1.8 over the Colts, Ravens by 5.2 over the Chiefs, Packers by 5.7 over the Eagles.  Pat on the back for me, even if my picks did not make the mark!

For the record, incorporating the Week 18 results, the raw numbers for this weekends matchups (the delta in “margin”):

Steelers by 2.8 over the Ravens, Packers by 2.6 over the Falcons, Patriots by 8.7 over the Jets, Bears by 9.3 over the Seahawks … picks to come later in the week

 

2010 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Wow, it HAS been a while, hasn’t it? Anyhoo, Happy New Year to this teeny tiny following here, and I hope that your holidays have been good. Writing from India, obviously great blogging time has been intermittent. (Thus the dearth of power rankings) Of course, there will be posts covering that adventure forthcoming.

However, there is the business at hand, the wild card round and the four matches. With time a wastin before my flight tonight, time to get some wrong picks out there. This way if I am wrong, I have to be accountable – I did not attend Tom Coughlin’s school of blame shifting.

New Orleans Saints (-10.5) at Seattle Seahawks: It is hard for this to not offend my sensibility. The Seahawks of Pete Carroll, by virtue of their location in the truly execrable NFC West, rode a 7-9 record to a home game against the Saints. The Saints are considerable still, though lacking the creds of last year, in particular a decimated running back corps. The defense has been less turnover strong than a year ago. But come on! Even with home field, the Seabags were one of the league’s worst most of the season, and they were debating QBs for the game. The only question is if the Saints cover. Saints 34, Seahawks 17

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5): Rematch of last year’s AFC title game. The Jets are better, the Colts are worse. Now, the Jets have issues running consistently, while Mark Sanchez is beat up at quarterback. The defense is strong though. However the blitz heavy defense is made to order for Peyton Manning if his line can block. And they’ll have to with their injuries at skill positions and their near total inability to run. Peyton can make any prognosticator look bad, but the Jets have to be smarter in their defense this season, especially with a stronger cornerback tandem. Few points but Jets 20, Colts 14

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5): Rematch of week 1, but this might as well not be. That Eagle team thought Kevin Kolb would be starting. Instead we have the force of nature that is Mike Vick back in the playoffs for the first time in 6 seasons. The Eagles are the most dynamic offense in the league with unmatched big play ability from both passing and running avenues. The Packers have a big play defense and their own force of nature in Aaron Rodgers quarterbacking, but a line that gives him little help, and a total inability to run the football. The Eagles defense makes plays but gives points up, while their return and kicking game require no explanation. Anyway, this is clearly the best game of the weekend. The Eagles do just enough. Eagles 31, Packers 28

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs: The playoffs are back in Kansas City, which is neat. And this team is in line with what the 90s Martyball teams would love – running hard, passing smart, strong defense. Baltimore clearly is an elite team, especially when they keep the offense focused around Ray Rice like they did in their win over the Saints in Week 15. The defense gets the ink, but they have given up big ground games to opponents much of the year. In a lot of ways this is an offense driven Raven team between Flacco, Rice and their depth at receiver. Baltimore scares me as a Patriots fan but they have to advance first, and the Chiefs might be the wrong matchup. This is no fun without calling a surprise. Chiefs 23, Ravens 20

2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 7

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , ,

As the rankings continue – we are in the throes of quite the New York Knick streak, as well as the Heat taking advantage of a dip in their schedule.  But at the tippy top, not a ton has changed.  As always, you can find the methodology here.

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Celtics 19 4 102.906 (6) 92.308 (1) 1.826 1.781 (19) 14.206
2 Heat 18 8 104.422 (4) 94.13 (3) 1.615 2.009 (15) 13.917
3 Spurs 20 3 105.569 (1) 96.073 (8) 1.37 0.895 (27) 11.761
4 Mavericks 19 5 102.126 (9) 95.565 (7) 1.313 2.279 (10) 10.153
5 Bulls 15 8 98.111 (16) 93.99 (2) 1.674 2.823 (2) 8.617
6 Lakers 17 7 104.276 (5) 97.074 (11) 1.75 -0.659 (30) 8.293
7 Magic 16 8 100.789 (14) 95.443 (6) 1.75 0.901 (26) 7.997
8 Jazz 18 8 102.177 (8) 98.515 (14) 1.346 2.656 (5) 7.665
9 Hornets 14 10 96.87 (20) 95.131 (5) 1.75 3 (1) 6.49
10 Hawks 16 9 101.628 (11) 98.46 (13) 1.68 1.518 (22) 6.366
11 Nuggets 14 9 102.863 (7) 101.481 (18) 1.826 2.456 (7) 5.665
12 Sixers 8 15 98.665 (15) 96.903 (10) 1.674 1.383 (24) 4.819
13 Thunder 17 8 101.233 (12) 100.655 (17) 1.82 1.853 (18) 4.251
14 Pacers 11 12 96.548 (22) 96.16 (9) 1.826 1.869 (17) 4.082
15 Knicks 16 9 104.499 (3) 102.116 (21) 1.96 -0.583 (29) 3.761
16 Bucks 10 13 93.761 (29) 94.564 (4) 1.674 2.757 (3) 3.629
17 Suns 11 12 104.836 (2) 105.671 (30) 1.826 2.138 (14) 3.129
18 Rockets 9 14 101.729 (10) 102.084 (19) 1.978 1.412 (23) 3.035
19 Blazers 12 13 98.059 (18) 99.023 (15) 2.1 1.78 (20) 2.916
20 Bobcats 8 15 95.96 (25) 98.299 (12) 1.826 2.356 (8) 1.843
21 Raptors 9 15 100.946 (13) 103.483 (25) 1.75 2.194 (13) 1.407
22 Grizzlies 11 14 97.731 (19) 100.007 (16) 1.82 1.763 (21) 1.307
23 Warriors 8 16 98.061 (17) 103.632 (26) 2.042 2.692 (4) -0.837
24 Nets 6 18 96.316 (23) 102.087 (20) 1.896 2.514 (6) -1.361
25 Timberwolves 6 18 96.021 (24) 102.631 (23) 1.896 2.203 (12) -2.511
26 Clippers 5 20 95.57 (27) 103.004 (24) 1.4 2.283 (9) -3.75
27 Pistons 7 18 96.836 (21) 103.711 (27) 1.96 1.058 (25) -3.857
28 Wizards 6 16 95.933 (26) 104.905 (29) 1.909 2.265 (11) -4.798
29 Kings 5 16 94.954 (28) 102.345 (22) 1.333 -0.144 (28) -6.202
30 Cavaliers 7 17 93.481 (30) 104.029 (28) 1.896 1.922 (16) -6.731

For this week’s results, let’s play name that team:  Team A and Team B are the mystery teams:

Team A is 13th in the league in shooting percentage, 10th in FG defense, Team B is 19th and 21st respectively

Team A shoots the three decently (10th) and is even better at defending it (5th), while Team B is bad at both (27th and 30th)

Team A is not good at he foul game, drawing (22nd) or allowing (25th), while Team B is the 2nd best team at getting to the line, and good at not fouling (12th).  As a result of these numbers Team A is 17th in the league in TS% while Team B is 13th.  Defensively Team A is 9th while Team B is 15th.

In terms of shot quantity, Team A places some priority on getting back on defense, with its 22nd ranked offensive rebounding, but defends its own glass nicely (7th).  The defense and offense are cautious with being 11th at turning the ball over and only 22nd in forcing them.  As such, Team A is average (14th and 13th) and getting and preventing scoring chances.

Team B also does not offensively rebound much (20th) and is careful with turnovers (10th).  However the defensive rebounding is 23rd though they force more turnovers than Team A, they are not elite there (14th).  The result is that Team B is 16th at getting scoring chances and 20th at preventing them.

So, Team A is an average shooting team that gets an average amount of shots, but a solidly above average team at shooting defense while being average at preventing looks.  Team B is better offensively, though not by much and is substantially worse defensively in terms of both quality and quantity.

Team A is the Philadelphia 76ers while Team B is the New Orleans Hornets.  The Sixers are 8-15 while the Thunder are 17-9 despite having very similar fundamentals.  In fact, one can argue that the Sixers have played better so far – but somehow the results have not caught up.  This leads to a conclusion that the Thunder have won a lot of close games, stuff that is the sign of a team “knowing how to win”.  Of course this is nonsense, and a function of random occurrence.  As such, the Sixers have reason to hope – and the Thunder still need to be careful.

NFL Power Rankings – Week 10

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , ,

Another week of strange results, none stranger than the Miami Dolphins lining up six guys behind center to beat the Tennessee Titans.  As the season evolves, the movements up and down the table get smaller.  That said, when you hang 59 points up, it gets you noticed.  As always this is a combination of scoring margin and opponents scoring margin against other teams – this week’s story is about the actual data, and not the ordinal data per se:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Titans 5 4 0 11.663 2.969 9 1
2 Packers 6 3 0 11.25 1.583 19 3
3 Jets 7 2 0 10.649 2.26 13 4
4 Steelers 6 3 0 10.521 4.382 2 2
5 Eagles 6 3 0 10.32 3.431 4 9
6 Patriots 7 2 0 9.219 2.524 12 12
7 Falcons 7 2 0 8.552 2.108 17 8
8 Colts 6 3 0 8.336 0.28 24 6
9 Chargers 4 5 0 8.056 1.611 18 7
10 Ravens 6 3 0 7.618 2.229 14 11
11 Giants 6 3 0 5.883 0.078 25 5
12 Lions 2 7 0 5.878 3.045 8 10
13 Raiders 5 4 0 5.809 0.642 23 15
14 Browns 3 6 0 5.313 4.868 1 14
15 Saints 6 3 0 4.809 -1.914 32 16
16 Chiefs 5 4 0 3.938 -0.007 26 13
17 Dolphins 5 4 0 3.681 3.958 3 21
18 Bears 6 3 0 3.347 -1.042 29 19
19 Vikings 3 6 0 1.851 2.795 10 17
20 Bengals 2 7 0 0.854 2.132 16 22
21 Broncos 3 6 0 -0.01 3.156 6 26
22 Rams 4 5 0 -0.198 -1.67 31 23
23 Redskins 4 5 0 -0.303 3.086 7 18
24 Texans 4 5 0 -0.328 2.561 11 20
25 Seahawks 5 4 0 -1.443 -0.054 27 27
26 49ers 3 6 0 -1.455 1.212 20 25
27 Cowboys 2 7 0 -1.963 2.176 15 29
28 Bucs 6 3 0 -1.966 -1.521 30 24
29 Jaguars 5 4 0 -3.368 1.076 21 30
30 Bills 1 8 0 -4.191 3.253 5 31
31 Cardinals 3 6 0 -6.686 0.786 22 28
32 Panthers 1 8 0 -10.748 -0.137 28 32

As I mentioned above, the actual numbers are the story of the NFL right now, much less so than the Titans still measuring up as the #1 team in the league.  Why is this the case?  Well, let’s take a trip down memory lane to last year’s final rankings.

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 Saints 13 3 0 12.538 0.475 25
2 Patriots 10 6 0 12.133 3.227 5
3 Packers 11 5 0 11.944 0.413 27
4 Vikings 12 4 0 11.874 0.64 23
5 Ravens 9 7 0 11.219 2.063 11
6 Cowboys 11 5 0 10.699 2.011 13
7 Chargers 13 3 0 10.188 0.423 26
8 Colts 14 2 0 9.914 1.711 18
9 Jets 9 7 0 9.729 1.901 14
10 Eagles 11 5 0 9.171 1.858 16
11 Falcons 9 7 0 6.74 2.943 6
12 Panthers 8 8 0 5.963 4.01 2
13 Texans 9 7 0 5.575 0.388 29
14 Steelers 9 7 0 5.55 1.05 20
15 49ers 8 8 0 5.202 0.389 28
16 Cardinals 10 6 0 4.446 -0.429 32
17 Bengals 9 7 0 4.286 2.333 8
18 Dolphins 7 9 0 3.912 4.037 1
19 Broncos 8 8 0 3.553 1.85 17
20 Giants 8 8 0 3.203 3.265 4
21 Titans 8 8 0 1.861 2.205 9
22 Bears 7 9 0 0.74 1.881 15
23 Bills 6 10 0 -0.157 2.343 7
24 Redskins 4 12 0 -2.254 0.215 30
25 Jaguars 7 9 0 -2.682 0.896 21
26 Bucs 3 13 0 -4.159 3.747 3
27 Chiefs 5 11 0 -5.081 0.513 24
28 Browns 5 11 0 -5.145 1.23 19
29 Seahawks 5 11 0 -5.289 0.039 31
30 Raiders 5 11 0 -6.96 2.181 10
31 Lions 2 14 0 -10.271 2.057 12
32 Rams 1 15 0 -13.181 0.756 22

As we see even with the flawed sample here, that the top rating of 12.5 points (and remember these are points scored netted by opponents scoring margin) is higher than the current Titans score of 11.7.   And the league worst Panthers rating of -10.7 is significantly better than the Rams’ -13.2 stinkfest.  Put into English, the league is squished together more this season.  Indeed, the median for this year to date is 3.7 versus last year’s 4.3.  Of course last year, we know the Colts and Saints sat people the last couple of weeks.  So let’s cut this off at Week 14:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 Saints 13 1 0 15.493 0.814 25
2 Colts 14 0 0 14.307 2.539 9
3 Ravens 8 6 0 12.084 2.477 10
4 Patriots 9 5 0 11.972 3.544 3
5 Eagles 10 4 0 11.075 1.468 18
6 Vikings 11 3 0 10.768 0.072 28
7 Chargers 11 3 0 9.875 0.946 23
8 Cowboys 9 5 0 8.714 1.964 16
9 Packers 9 5 0 8.408 -0.36 30
10 Giants 8 6 0 7.431 3.163 4
11 Bengals 9 5 0 6.668 2.026 15
12 Jets 7 7 0 6.498 1.123 20
13 Cardinals 9 5 0 6.079 0.151 27
14 Broncos 8 6 0 5.66 2.321 11
15 Texans 7 7 0 5.535 0.856 24
16 49ers 6 8 0 5.438 2.759 8
17 Falcons 7 7 0 5.275 3.9 1
18 Dolphins 7 7 0 4.399 3.613 2
19 Steelers 7 7 0 4.274 0.024 29
20 Titans 7 7 0 3.663 2.806 6
21 Panthers 6 8 0 1.988 2.952 5
22 Jaguars 7 7 0 -0.727 1.433 19
23 Bears 5 9 0 -1.265 1.717 17
24 Bills 5 9 0 -1.654 1.096 21
25 Redskins 4 10 0 -2.122 -0.479 31
26 Seahawks 5 9 0 -4.381 -0.81 32
27 Bucs 2 12 0 -5.989 2.797 7
28 Browns 3 11 0 -6.633 2.082 14
29 Raiders 5 9 0 -6.823 2.302 12
30 Chiefs 3 11 0 -8.12 0.415 26
31 Lions 2 12 0 -10.148 2.191 13
32 Rams 1 13 0 -12.059 1.048 22

The bookends are even MORE pronounced once we removed the garbage time week.  In fact last year by that time, there were four teams that graded higher than any team does this year.  Last year, there was only one team within three points of the Saints (the Colts).  As of now there are 7 teams separated by that margin at the top.  I am not sure if Tennessee is the best, and the wins sure don’t indicate that they are.  But the numbers are so constricted that their case that they could be … is not torn to crap – not yet anyway.

As far as other news goes?  The Bucs are sure low ranked for a 28th rated team.  Deal with it, they need to beat somebody we respect  Finally, I am not sure if the Eagles are the 2nd best team in the NFC, but if Vick is healthy and it clicks like last night – their offense can surely impersonate an unbeatable lot.

 

2011 NBA Preview: Teams 24-19

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This is the third entry in our NBA preview series.  In the prior installment we unearthed our picks for the six worst teams in the NBA.  Now we rise up from badness to mere irrelevance:

24. Sacramento Kings (23rd overall in 2010, 22nd offense, 18th defense)

After much of the walking disasters in the previous section, the teams here seem to either be just unappealing in a boring, non transcendental way, or they are teams like the Sacramento Kings – a team with a lot of raw materials, but without a discernible near term recipe to put the flavors together.  Tyreke Evans, while playing wildly out of position as a lead guard, is one of the most impressive physical forces in the NBA, a pocket version of the LeBron James wing player as-linebacker.  Jason Thompson is an interesting forward, Carl Landry has always been a super productive forward for his pedigree, and Beno Udrih seems like he might be a competent point guard.  DeMarcus Cousins, entering as the #5 pick, is certifiably crazy.  But he is also the single best talent to enter the draft, a big man with soft hands, amazing rebounding instincts and the ability to go for 20-20 any night.  There are going to be some nights where they could crush a team like the Lakers or Celtics on the second night of a back to back.  They will also pile up a lot of losses while trying to put this chemistry experiment together.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Tyreke Evans morphs into the junior Oscar Robertson his talent tracks with.  DeMarcus Cousins IS the best big man rookie since Dwight Howard and Paul Westphal learns how to coach defense.

23. Washington Wizards (26th overall in 2010, 25th offense, 20th defense)

After the colossal disaster of a season ago, the Wizards seemed without hope – sure they had cap space, but who would buy, especially when the three top free agents were making a pinkie swear promise?  Flip Saunders did a decent job defensively – 20th is no great shakes, but at least they gave a shit compared to what Eddie Jordan wheeled out there.  However, his offense predicated on smart reads and cuts was dependent on the basketball acumen of people like Nick Young and Javale McGee.  Oops.  This is not to say these are bad players, but “heady” is not a popular descriptor.  But alas, there is hope with Ted Leonsis owning the team and John Wall landing in their laps as the #1 overall pick.  Wall is the first true facilitator the Wizards have had since Rod Strickland, and if Gilbert Arenas can handle playing shooting guard competently, they could be entertaining pretty quickly.  While the albatross of Kirk Hinrich’s deal is not great, at least he can play basketball and not just run and dunk and shoot wantonly.  Wall, Arenas’ return and the growth of Aundray Blatche could keep things interesting for a couple of months.  Really this is a step in a solid rebuilding process.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Wall is even better than I think he will be (and that’s saying a lot), Gilbert becomes an efficient shooter and Blatche emerges as one of the East’s top power forwards.  The team learns Saunders’ defensive schemes more and become a tough team to score on.

22. Memphis Grizzlies (20th overall in 2010, 17th offense, 23rd defense)

The Grizzlies are the first (ok I forgot the Cavs) 40 win team from a year ago to be on this list.  How they did it though was a bit lucky.  First of all, they were among the healthiest teams in the league.  It is hard to remember any of their core guys, Rudy Gay, OJ Mayo, Zach Randolph missing any significant action.  The Grizzlies were an athletic team that relied on volume to account for relative inaccuracy.  So while their shooting percentage (true shooting) was merely 21st, their league leading offensive rebounding pushed them up in efficiency.  That said, their defense was bad and their bench was worse.  The bench will improve as Hasheem Thabeet might be a bust at the 2nd overall pick, but should be improved as a backup center.  Also the drafting of Xavier Henry gives them some more depth in the wing.  That said, the extension for Rudy Gay was nonsensical, and the odds of human carcinogen Zach Randolph staying engaged again is low.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They played in the NBDL.  Their starting five stays as healthy and focused as they did last year and Xavier Henry plays like the guy who the college basketball experts thought Kansas was getting and not the one dimensional wimp who actually played for them.  But there is just not much ceiling here – considering what a best case scenario last year’s 40-42 was.

21. Los Angeles Clippers (27th overall in 2010, 27th on offense, 21st on defense)

This is one of the first solid upside plays we have in this list.  I could see this team making the playoffs in an everything goes right sort of way.  The key is Blake Griffin.  After missing his entire rookie season, the slam dunk #1 pick of last season shows signs of being that sort of guy this year.  If he is the real thing, then the notoriously unfocused Baron Davis could match it also.  Even as he has gotten older, Davis to me is the best package of pure point guard skills in the game.  When he focuses and stops launching 3s, he dominates games like no other point can.  But he does it so rarely that we are staring a 21st ranked team.  There is a decent amount to like even if they ARE a laughingstock franchise and hiring a crappy coach like Vinny Del Negro.  Griffin and Eric Gordon are building blocks, Al-Farooq Aminu is one of the most talented guys in this draft class (raw but a great homerun swing) and Eric Bledsoe could be a great combination guard.  But it comes down to Baron.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: If Blake Griffin is the type of superstar that can get Baron Davis to be a superstar like he can be too.  This team has the parts of a dangerous playoff team … but bet on any Clippers team at your peril.

20. Philadelphia 76ers (25th overall in 2010, 20th offense, 24th defense)

It is funny what coaching can do.  Under Maurice Cheeks, this team was young, fast and energetic.  Sure they couldn’t shoot, but they could defend and out-athlete more veteran opponents.  But their offense lacked, so the management picks up Eddie Jordan.  But the management forgot Eddie Jordan has no concept of coaching defense.  The accountability was gone and these guys fell like a rock.  Enter Doug Collins.  Collins, ever the ambulance chaser, comes out of his cushy TNT gig to try to rescue the team he played for.  Collins is a great rebuilder, but notoriously bad with young players.  Jrue Holliday is the youngest, and Evan Turner, the 2nd overall pick this year is no grizzled vet either.  Will Collins tear them a new Kwame Brown?  One hopes not, because if their confidence is not shattered (and Evan Turner is a legitimate solid fringe all-star sort as he seems to profile), they have pieces.  Andre Iguodala is a terrific glue guy, Louis Williams is a solid combo guard, Maresse Speights is a terrific post scorer.  The players under Collins will be accountable, and he has always been able to develop underachieving veterans (witness his tour in Detroit).  This team will be better just by having defensive accountability.  That said, I am not sure if they have solved their shooting problems which is years old now.  The Sixers were the 22nd ranked TS% team, and while they might get to the line more now (only 2 teams went less), they still do not have much shooting.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Thaddeus Young or Jrue Holliday make the leap based on their talent, Elton Brand steps in the way back machine and Doug Collins works his Doug Collins miracle while not turning Holliday or Evan Turner into a fetal puddle of goo.  Evan Turner also has to be that point forward/Brandon Roy type and not an overrated non athlete who succeeded due to being in a non athletic Big Ten.  Someone needs to shoot the ball too.  

19. Charlotte Bobcats (14th overall in 2010, 24th offense, 2nd defense)

This is the team I am most confident that I will underestimate.  If Doug Collins in an ambulance chasing miracle worker, Larry Brown positively has healing hands.  Look at that roster.  When Gerald Wallace or Stephen Jackson is your best player, this is not the stuff of a title winner.  There is still a lack of wow on this team, even if they were the first team to really tap into the physical gifts of Tyrus Thomas.  Out is Raymond Felton at the point and in is the oft-injured Shawn Livingston.  Livingston has the talent to be a terrific big point guard, but his lack of shooting ability limits his ceiling.  Besides that, with no first rounder infused into the team, only Thomas’ improvement provides hope offensively – that and cutting down their league worst turnover rate.  Owner Michael Jordan could suit up again and be a net positive with this bunch (it’d better than him as a General Manager).  But somehow Larry Brown persists, and he makes this mishmash competitive by using good position defense that does a good job defending (3rd best forced turnover rate) without fouling.  (lowest FT rate allowed in the league and 2nd at defending 3 pointers). 

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They could let the 2010 Phoenix Suns play offense for them.  This is such a weird mishmash of mediocre talent and unproven upside that Larry Brown getting them 44 wins a year ago is a major league miracle.  He might get 50 wins this year with his skill for all I know.  But this is not the roster with that sort of ceiling, and given Michael Jordan’s work as a GM both here and in Washington, he is not someone you can immediately assume will identify that ceiling. (Adam Morrison, cough cough)


League Championship Series Previews

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Let’s cut to the chase … two potentially great LCS matchups on the table … all four teams have good short series winning ballclubs.

Yankees vs Rangers:

Your ALCS matchup.  The key to the series is the secondary starting pitching, especially now that Texas had to use Cliff Lee to win Game 5 against Tampa.  That said, the Friday ALCS start is of great help as Lee will be ready on full rest for Game 3, setting up a Game 3/7 possibility.  Game 1 becomes a big key with the Yankees running Sabbathia against CJ Wilson presumably for Texas.  The Yankees almost HAVE to claim CC’s starts as he is far and away their most reliable starter to pick off good hitting, which the Rangers are not lacking.  The Yankees are the best baserunner generating team in the league, and can mash any sort of mediocre pitching.  The Rangers back end starters are in trouble here – which makes CJ Wilson’s work all the more important.  Cliff Lee cannot be used more than twice, and the Rangers have to force the second time to occur – this makes it an uphill battle for them.  So in the battle of the team of Nixon vs the team of George Bush Jr, Yankees in 6 is the pick.

Phillies vs Giants

Look at all that starting pitching!  Halladay vs Lincecum, Oswalt vs Cain, Hamels vs Sanchez.  All of these matchups are really restaurant quality – and Halladay is so pitch efficient that the Phillies might be able to bypass their #4 starter, which is not a strength.  Runs will be hard to come by, and so we are left with focusing on offenses.  On that front, there is no comparison.  The Phillies offense lacks the greatness of the last couple of years, but their depth is much better than the Giants, whose best hitter pre-Buster Posey this season was a journeyman fungible corner like Aubrey Huff.  Howard might not have had a great season, but he is a threat.  Utley is terrific, Werth has had a strong season.  It is hard to see how the Giants score enough.  Phillies in 5

MLB Division Series Previews

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After the marathon, now comes the four week sprint to the finish line.  The baseball playoffs are the most compelling of sporting events – tension in every pitch, and really the exact opposite set of skills being tested.  If the regular season is about run scoring and organizational depth, the postseason is about everyday lineup and the ability to prevent baserunners.  So with that, the previews of each of the four Division Series matchups.

Yankees vs Twins

On paper, the Yankees are the best team in the American League.  The lineup is unmatched and the bullpen is very strong.  The defense is not as bad as it has been in year’s past with Brett Gardner representing a huge upgrade over what they were wheeling out in the past.  That said, the rotation has sagged, with AJ Burnett turning from a coach back into a pumpkin, and Andy Pettitte’s effectiveness being not guaranteed.  The Twins were right there for best record until the last weekend, but when we look at the sort of components you need to win short series baseball, there is not a ton there:

  • Lineups: Puh-leeze.  The Yankees smashed other pitchers into oblivion all season, despite Alex Rodriguez fading to merely very good, and Derek Jeter slipping to somewhat above average.  Robinson Cano is a legitimate MVP candidate, and they get power out of so many positions.  The Twins get on base, but without Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer is the only scary hitter they have – although Jim Thome has had a nice wayback machine season. (Edge: Yankees)
  • Bullpen: Both have been good down the stretch, but the Yankees miss more bats.  The less contact at this time of year, the better. (Edge: Yankees)
  • Defense: Both solid here.  Twins always make it a priority, though Yanks might be better in the edges.  If we use Fangraphs runs saved, Twins are 3rd, the Yankees are 10th in the AL.  For UZR, Twins are 2nd, Yanks are 5th.  (Edge: Twins)
  • Rotation:  Yanks have more upside, though both teams only have one reliable starter.  Sabbathia must be a horse for the Yankees to make their dreams come true.  Liriano is an ace, though not sure he has the durability needed here. (Edge: Yankees)
  • Manager: Both are obsessed with smallball, and Girardi managed the Yankees out of basically 3 of their 4 losses in the postseason last year.  Gardenhire is less inclined to screw things up.  (Edge: Twins)

The Twins last year were the worst team ever to make the postseason.  This is a much better squad.  But for short series baseball, they are not the Yankees equal, even with the Yankees being worse than a year ago.  Yankees in 4

Rays vs Rangers

This is a fascinating matchup of youth and upside.  Two great farm systems bearing all their fruit – really this is as wide open an AL playoff as there has been in quite some time.  The Rays made the World Series in 2008, so we know their short series credentials are strong.  The Rangers less so, though this is far more dangerous than the Gonzalez-Pudge-Rick Helling teams they ran out in the mid to late 90s.

  • Lineup: The Rays lack star power.  Longoria is their one true stud, as Zobrist has not been as good as in year’s previous.  But they take excellent at-bats up and down the lineup.  They are a good on base team.  The Rangers are a better on base team, but in a better hitters park.  But Josh Hamilton has been magnificent and Nelson Cruz has shown a lot of power.  (Edge: Rangers, but not by much)
  • Rotation: David Price and Cliff Lee are both Cy Young caliber guys.  But behind them, stuff changes.  CJ Wilson has the stuff of an excellent #2, but the dropoff is solid.  The Rays with James Shields, Matt Garza, Wade Davis have more options, though Cliff Lee could pitch in short rest. (Edge: Rays)
  • Bullpen: Rafael Soriano and Neftali Feliz are great closers.  Both bullpens have lefty and righty options and good setup guys.  The Rays are a little better here .  (Edge: Rays, slightly)
  • Defense: The Rays are a terrific run preventing defense. (5th in Runs Saved, 3rd in UZR)  The Rangers are more middle of the pack (9th and 7th respectively)  The Rays rode their defense to a pennant in 2008 – we know they can do this. (Edge: Rays)
  • Managing: Maddon is solid, respects OBP, and has shown sound tactics all season.  He hurt them in 2008, but seems smarter.  Washington has been with the Rangers for years.  He is certainly not bad.  (Edge: Rays)

A Rangers win is not a surprise here.  They are so talented and young in so many places.  They could rule the West for years.  But the Rays are the best team in baseball.  Does that mean they escape the murderous AL?  I don’t know – because there are tough opponents like this.  Rays in 5

Braves vs Giants

The Braves have stumbled to the finish line under the weight of serious injury problems.  They are a terrific on-base team though it has not translated to runs – though Jason Heyward is going to be a superstar.  The pitching has been solid all year.  Fortunately they are facing another offensively starved team led by a young uberstar (Buster Posey) in the Giants.  Both of these teams should be cannon fodder for the team below, but this is the most fascinating of the first round series.

Offense: Both stink.  The Braves have so many guys hurt, and the Giants have just been anemic all season.  That said, the Giants play in such a pitcher’s park that will explain some of their horror show, and with revived Pat Burrell, Aubrey Huff and Posey, they have a bit more to offer personnel wise than the Braves who are Heyward, Brian McCann and hope.  (Edge: Giants, slightly)

Defense: Both good.  3rd and 4th in runs saved.  That said, the Giants UZR is much better – indicating they get to more balls possibly.  This is somewhat speculative but the Giants show a bit more. (Edge: Giants)

Rotation: Both strong.  Lincecum and Cain are studs and Jonathan Sanchez and Baumgartner are all good for the Giants.  The Braves had to fight to the last day and use Tim Hudson, their ace, to get in.  This means that Derek Lowe needs to be able to give 2 starts to win this series.  For that reaso alone the Giants have the edge.

Bullpen: Both excellent.   Both managers have a lot of weapons at their disposal, the Braves being the bigger surprise with Billy Wagner having a wayback machine season.  (Push)

Manager: Cox is one of the best ever.  Bochy is not.  But he’s not Dusty Baker either.  (Edge: Braves)

Braves got a gift matchup, and they need it given how badly they limped to the finish line.  The Giants have the sort of team that can win a short series with that nasty top 3 in the rotation and solid defense.  The Braves on-base talent though could be enough to squeeze this series out.  This is a serially weird series to call, but I have to pick something.  Giants in 5

Phillies vs Reds

Here we are, your World Series favorite.  The Phillies with Oswalt, have such a short series devastating rotation and a lineup comparable to a good AL team that it’s hard to not see them get to their 3rd world series in a row, and for once a rotation edge on any AL team.  The Reds are young and gifted though, but this is the wrong year to get this matchup.

Lineup: The Phillies have fewer holes than the average NL lineup.  When healthy Chase Utley is the best player in baseball, and Ryan Howard is a good hitting 1B albeit split heavy and overrated.  Werth has had a terrific contract year.  This is not as strong a lineup as they have had in the past but certainly good.  The Reds are younger and Joey Votto is an MVP candidate.  Jay Bruce is a serious upside guy also and Scott Rolen has had a nice wayback season.   Both teams enjoy hitting parks.  (Edge: Reds)

Rotation: The Reds have been better than one’d expect, with Cueto having a strong year.  But the Phillies run out two potential #1 types in Halladay and Hamels with Oswalt being a tick below but damn good.  Really this top 3 might make them the favorites to win it all, period this year. (Edge: Phillies big)

Bullpen: Neither team is especially good.  The difference is the rotations and usage patterns of each manager, which shift the balance here.  In a vacuum, it’s a push, but games are played in TV sets, not in vacuums.  (Edge: Phillies)

Defense:  The Reds have been strong, 4th in the NL is UZR and Runs Saved.  The Phillies are middle of the pack in both.  The outfield defense in particular with Ibanez and Victorino seems meh.  The Reds can field the ball, if the pitchers can keep it in the park.  (Edge: Reds)

Manager: Charlie Manuel is old school while Dusty Baker might have run his staff into the ground.  Somehow, the Reds got in despite it.  Manuel will trust his lineup and not overmanage.  Dusty of course, well … we know.  (Edge: Phillies)

The Phillies are the heavy favorite in the NL and could very well win the whole damn thing with that pitching.  They have short series muscle to the teeth.  The Reds are young and this series has some slugfest potential – some – but the Phils might end up doing most of the slugging with that Reds staff. Phillies in 3