Tag Archives: Philadelphia

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Dare to be Stupid: The Dwight Howard Trade

Let’s start with one thing.  I don’t know what offers the Orlando Magic actually had here.  Were they really poring through various offers of other teams’ trash?  Was this really some Building 19 special we were dealing with?  It all seems terribly weird for the league’s 2nd best player.  Yeah yeah yeah, it is chic to say that Kevin Durant is the league’s best non-LeBron James player, but Dwight Howard’s total impact on both sides of the floor (as well as the general VORP factors associated with centers) is too hard to ignore.  So, lapsing into Hubie Brown’s cadence, you have the 2nd best player in the league – one who could be a free agent after this season, what is he worth?

We know that Houston amassed trade assets by the boatload leading up to this – between some credible draft picks, cap space and players who know how to play basketball and have some upside – yeah not star upside, but rotation level upside.  We know that Atlanta could have offered Al Horford and Jeff Teague – granted their motivation to do so might have been modest considering that they could have tried to sign Howard outright after the season.  It is hard to think that Aaron Affalo, Al Harrington, Nikova Vucevic, Moe Harkless, a bunch of low value draft picks is a fair price for the 2nd best player in the league.  I mean, that is a combined 0 players who are likely to be key players on the next good Orlando team.  Apparently Orlando has a beat on Jabari Parker in 2014 or something – otherwise this is pretty horrible return for a truly great (albeit truly flaky) player.

For the Lakers, this is obviously heist.  After trading a bunch of picks they don’t want for Steve Nash, getting Dwight Howard for Andrew Bynum and a sack of potatoes is pretty amazing.  With Antawn Jamison augmenting their depth, the Lakers are still way thinner than what you’d prefer and relying on some old guys with big egos (Kobe cough cough), and the pieces do not fit precisely.  But they have four of the 25 best players in the game!  Is Dwight Howard healthy and capable of being the next great Lakers center and phase into the leader of the franchise?  Well he won’t have to lead right away.  Lakers have moved up to a solid 3rd in the pecking order behind Miami and OKC.

Denver’s role here is weird.  On one hand you can blame them for midwifing a trade that reduces their chance of winning.  That said, you’d make the Affalo-Harrington for Iguodala deal tomorrow.  And he is perfect for George Karl’s system – athletic, elite defender.  Given Denver’s model, this was a really shrewd trade.  And really, Lakers or Thunder or Spurs – they probably were not going to usurp any of them anyhoo.  They get a solid A- here.

The Sixers you have to wonder – would they have amnestied Elton Brand if they knew that they could have gotten Andrew Bynum.  Doubtlessly that would have been better than Bynum and Spencer Hawes or whatever.  But that said, Andrew Bynum – health risk and all – is the best player legitimately available to acquire outside of Dwight and they landed him.  Bynum is from Jersey and the Sixers will have an edge in money they can offer.  Bynum is no lock to sign, but the Sixers have as good a chance as anybody – maybe better than that. Studs don’t show up every day – so when you can get one – ask questions later.

Overall Grades: Magic D, Lakers A+, Nuggets A-, Sixers A-

 

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2012 MLB Power Rankings #1

Wow, the first baseball post of the year!  Frankly, I have not been following too too much.  With the respendent NBA and NHL playoffs, it has been easy to ignore.  Also, small sample sizes abound anyway.  It’s hard to make any real statement about your team before Memorial Day anyway.  For what it’s worth, we have decided to try a quantitative ranking this season.  The method is detailed boringly here.  But here is the rankings through today:

Rank Team W L Pythag SOS PythRecent SOSRecent RecRank
1 Los Angeles Dodgers 30 14 0.621 (3) 0.516 (6) 0.52 0.574 3
2 Texas Rangers 27 18 0.688 (1) 0.489 (24) 0.466 0.564 12
3 Toronto Blue Jays 24 21 0.588 (4) 0.499 (18) 0.511 0.551 4
4 Saint Louis Cardinals 25 20 0.65 (2) 0.511 (9) 0.507 0.549 18
5 San Francisco Giants 24 21 0.508 (15) 0.525 (2) 0.568 0.539 2
6 Cleveland Indians 26 18 0.503 (16) 0.502 (15) 0.478 0.537 1
7 Washington Nationals 26 18 0.562 (6) 0.513 (8) 0.508 0.528 13
8 Houston Astros 21 23 0.534 (9) 0.497 (21) 0.528 0.526 6
9 Atlanta Braves 26 20 0.576 (5) 0.509 (10) 0.47 0.525 15
10 Philadelphia Phillies 23 23 0.511 (14) 0.527 (1) 0.476 0.524 10
11 Chicago White Sox 23 22 0.529 (11) 0.504 (11) 0.528 0.521 11
12 Boston Red Sox 22 22 0.533 (10) 0.488 (25) 0.414 0.574 9
13 Anaheim Angels 21 25 0.494 (17) 0.518 (3) 0.537 0.574 7
14 Cincinnati Reds 25 19 0.524 (12) 0.492 (23) 0.503 0.574 8
15 Kansas City Royals 17 26 0.44 (22) 0.5 (17) 0.504 0.574 5
16 Tampa Bay Rays 27 18 0.537 (7) 0.475 (29) 0.383 0.574 19
17 Miami Marlins 24 21 0.483 (18) 0.518 (4) 0.505 0.492 21
18 Baltimore Orioles 28 17 0.535 (8) 0.475 (30) 0.447 0.491 23
19 Detroit Tigers 20 24 0.474 (20) 0.502 (16) 0.498 0.488 17
20 Seattle Mariners 21 26 0.478 (19) 0.487 (26) 0.448 0.487 14
21 Milwaukee Brewers 18 26 0.43 (25) 0.514 (7) 0.534 0.478 16
22 New York Yankees 23 21 0.518 (13) 0.494 (22) 0.457 0.47 30
23 Arizona Diamondbacks 20 25 0.464 (21) 0.503 (14) 0.421 0.469 25
24 Colorado Rockies 16 27 0.44 (23) 0.516 (5) 0.515 0.465 26
25 New York Mets 24 21 0.415 (26) 0.503 (13) 0.551 0.452 27
26 Oakland Athletics 22 23 0.439 (24) 0.497 (20) 0.498 0.451 29
27 San Diego Padres 17 29 0.392 (27) 0.498 (19) 0.512 0.45 24
28 Pittsburgh Pirates 20 24 0.383 (28) 0.486 (27) 0.573 0.444 22
29 Minnesota Twins 15 29 0.332 (30) 0.503 (12) 0.488 0.436 20
30 Chicago Cubs 15 29 0.373 (29) 0.483 (28) 0.531 0.426 28

Obviously it is hard – and probably silly – to dive too big into surprises. What I can say is that the ranked teams with good records tend to suffer from the scoring margin associated with a not so good team. Luck in close games is good for the standings – beats having to win the games again – but it is not something you can predict future success with. Also now with 40 games or so in the book, the last 25% of the schedule (the recent stats) are included – so how a team is playing now matters a bit more. In any case, from early evidence we can derive some overrated/underrated:

Overrated: (22) Yankees, (25) Mets.  Two above .500 teams who are playing like a far inferior side.  Somewhat expected with the Mets, but less so with the Yankees, but the pitching has not gotten better.

Underrated: (8) Astros, (10) Phillies.  Phillies makes sense – the pitching and past performance are worth it.  The Astros have played like a better team than their record.  This is particularly funny since on paper, this looked like the worst non-expansion team in many a moon.  Brad Mills obvious 1st quarter Manager of the Year in the NL.

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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #10 – Final Report and Playoff Preview

First as you have probably seen from the last couple of entries, people still have Cystic Fibrosis – blah blah blah – click here to help …

FINALLY.  The best of the playoff seasons is upon us.  Of course this was after a truly execrable last couple of weeks of the season where teams were playing scrubs shamelessly while still charging full prices.  The Tuesday Celtics-Heat game was a particular atrocity.  So the rankings could be skewed a tiny bit.  But whatever, the playoffs are here and looks at the series are coming up … how have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (2) Bulls (50-16)
  2. (4) Spurs (50-16)
  3. (1) Thunder (47-19)
  4. (3) Heat (46-20)
  5. (5) Sixers (35-31)
  6. (10) Nugggets (38-28)
  7. (6) Celtics (39-27)
  8. (8) Hawks (40-26)
  9. (7) Grizzlies (41-25)
  10. (15) Clippers (40-26)
  11. (13) Mavericks (36-30)
  12. (9) Lakers (41-25)
  13. (14) Knicks (36-30)
  14. (16) Pacers (42-24)
  15. (11) Magic (37-29)
  16. (12) Rockets (34-32)
  17. (18) Suns (33-33)
  18. (20) Jazz (36-30)
  19. (19) Bucks (31-35)
  20. (17) Blazers (28-38)
  21. (21) Timberwolves (26-40)
  22. (22) Warriors (23-43)
  23. (24) Hornets (21-45)
  24. (23) Raptors (23-43)
  25. (25) Kings (22-44)
  26. (29) Wizards (20-46)
  27. (27) Pistons (25-42)
  28. (28) Nets (22-44)
  29. (26) Wizards (21-45)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-59)

It’s the playoffs!  So – quick looks at your first round series are in order:

  • (E1) Bulls v (E8) Sixers – This is #1 vs #5.  What a matchup!  However, the Sixers have really stumbled down the stretch, but the metrics have been strong as the Sixers blowouts early still have resonance.  The Bulls with Derrick Rose’s dicey injury situation could be great – but they could be tricky.  Defense will be the order of the day (#2 v #3) and neither team is great from outside.  I can’t imagine the Bulls losing this but the Sixers match up well with them, better than they do with the Heat.  Bulls in 7
  • (E4) Celtics v (E5) Hawks – #7 vs #8.  Interestingly here the lower seed has home court.  The Celtics have been very strong down the stretch.  But so have the Hawks, both in the Top 6 since the trade deadline.  The Celtics have serious issues with rebounding and size, but the Hawks are 26th in offensive rebounding, so it is hard to read that as a huge edge.  The games have all been close in their head to head.  Really more of a coin flip than the experts purport.  Hawks in 7
  • (E2) Heat v (E7) Knicks – #4 vs #13 Fun series with two defensively adept teams.  Anthony and LeBron will be a great matchup and the Novak/Smith bench for the Knicks could explode.  But it is hard to envision the Knicks winning in Miami.  This is a fun series but Heat in 6
  • (E3) Pacers v (E6) Magic – The Pacers have the 5th best record in the league but merely #14 in rankings.  This describes the Pacers in general – a nice team, lot of good players, but is this the juice to win a playoff series?  The Magic will be motivated with no Dwight Howard and “nobody believing in them”. Did the Pacers more competitive than it seemed result vs Chicago last year inform them or will the Magic’s winning experience do it?  Without Glen Davis, the Magic just don’t have enough players now – good or otherwise.  Pacers in 5
  • (W1) Spurs v (W8) Jazz – Spurs can flat out score, but the Jazz can attack with size.  Will the Spurs lose in round 1 again?  Frankly I’d have more faith in the Jazz if their defense was not so mediocre.  Against the buzz saw offense of San Antonio it is tough sledding.  Spurs in 5
  • (W4) Grizzlies v (W5) Clippers – Grizzlies are a sexy pick to upset the apple cart.  However this is not last year’s Zach Randolph.  Meanwhile the Clippers just have more better players and one of the game’s best all around players and leaders.  Look how the Hornets stole 2 games against the Lakers with Chris Paul and nobody – he is just that good.  In the playoffs, the stars play more.  Lob City is not done yet.  Clippers in 6
  • (W2) Thunder v (W7) Mavericks – Hard series to peg.  On paper, Thunder should rip through this.  In actuality, Dallas can throw a lot of junk D at them and make the Thunder really work for it.  But it won’t be enough.  Thunder in 7
  • (W3) Lakers v (W6) Nuggets – Denver has depth.  The Lakers don’t.  Denver has speed, and the Lakers have real issues with that.  But the Lakers have all the really good players here and their size and ability to dictate in the half court.  I hope Denver can make this fun.  I think the Lakers grind it out enough.  Lakers in 6
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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #2

Well, since the last time we did this report, the league has crammed in another 116 games.  As we had pointed out then, the effects of the lockout and the accelerated offseason showed in some pretty shoddy basketball.  Well with more data, through 241 games the league PPP is still at 0.998, a far cry from last year’s 1.04.  Put another way, currently only 6 teams are above that number this season compared to 15 a year ago at this time.  Just like last week, we can see other metrics.

  • Turnover Rate: Last Year: 15.3% of possessions, This Year: 16.0%
  • TS%: Last Year: 54%, This Year: 52.1%
  • Shots per possession: Last Year: 0.962, This Year: 0.958.

With even two more weeks, the trends have been getting worse, instead of better.  The turnovers remain up, while the shooting is going down, and so the leaguewide scoring has gone down with it.  Just like we mentioned last time, it is tempting to attribute this to great defense – but given the lack of cohesion on so many rosters and the limited time together, it feels a lot like poor offense is much more to blame.  One place this might be evident is leaguewide foul shooting.  A year ago it was 76.4%, while this year it is down to 74.5%.  There is no reason for this to be the case other than guys just shooting poorly.  The league 3P% (35.6 to 34.0) has dipped as well.  So if you think that there have been a lot of low scoring, high turnover, poor shooting games – it’s not just you.

That said, despite the hide your eyes bad level of offensive play, and the way too aggressive schedule – the league is starting to unfold.  The latest rankings are in a permanent home this year, so hopefully you can skip right to the good stuff without reading all this jibberish.  However, if you are reading this – might as well get some observations out of the way:

  1. The Sixers hold the number one position again.  Granted, their losses to the Knicks and Heat do not give much confidence that this is the team’s true level.  However, they have clobbered the flotsam on their schedule.  120-89 over the Wizards, 112-85 over the Kings, etc etc.  This has led to that very lofty league’s #1 defensive ranking.  The Sixers are still excelling at preventing good looks, as their league best TS% allowed shows.  In particular, they continue to do a sensational job at limiting high value shots – leading the league in fewest three pointers allowed and 3rd in FT rate allowed.  That said, in the blowout loss to Miami, the Sixers allowed 54% shooting, 7 threes made in 89 possessions and 21 FTs, all much higher than their lofty levels, and all actually closer to last in the league than anything.  The Sixers seem to be above their heads, but the empirical case for them is still strong.
  2. This early in the season it is interesting to note teams whose rankings and record do not match.  A glaring case is the Indiana Pacers, whom the writer-sphere seems to think is a team to watch and whatever.  Certainly their depth is a virtue in this short season, and they have a number of good, close wins – last night at the Lakers most prominently.  The defense has been excellent, in particular leading the league in FG defense.  Without any other sensational fundamentals, their 41% FG allowed has carried them to the league’s 5th rated defense.  However, their scoring margin has not been that eye popping, mostly because of a gang which so far has not shot straight.  The 41% FG allowed is great.  The 41.9% FG of their own?  Yikes.  Fortunately, they have shot the three well (4th in the league and could stand to shoot it more) and have been one of the best teams in the league at converting at the foul line.  This has propped them up to 23rd in TS%, still not good, especially with the team being a pedestrian 26th in shots per possession.  The Pacers need to crank up the efficiency on that end of the floor.
  3. The big mover in a good way though has clearly been the Grizzlies – which is particularly surprising given the extended absence of Zach Randolph.  As you recall, last year’s late run sans Rudy Gay was driven by almost a 1976 style of play with very few three pointers and a maniacal attention to getting inside.  What is interesting is that much of their offensive style has not changed – actually they have kind of turned into the 2008-2010 Boston Celtics.  They are still not shooting the three (second from the bottom in threes per possession), they don’t get to the line much – but they shoot the twos very well, 4th in overall FG% and that has kept their TS% in the middle of the pack despite being only average at generating shots (16th – this is better tham the Celtics normally do since the Grizzlies actually crash the boards and limit turnovers).  The drop in shot generation and getting to the line has limited the offensive bonanza that their FG% would portend.  Z-Bo clearly helps in both areas.  Just as clearly, he doesn’t help play defense – and the Grizzlies have continued to be an elite turnover generating team – the Tony Allen Experience indeed – and that has been more than sufficient to offset any defensive rebounding help Z-Bo offered.  The Grizzlies were the best team in the league a season ago at preventing looks at the basket.  Now, that is not the case, but they have managed to stay a respectable 7th.

As far as the rankings through the games of 1/22/12? (Rankings from the first report – 1/8/12  – in parentheses):

  1. (1) Sixers (11-5)
  2. (5) Bulls (15-3)
  3. (3) Heat (11-5)
  4. (6) Hawks (12-5)
  5. (10) Thunder (13-3)
  6. (4) Nuggets (12-5)
  7. (9) Lakers (10-8)
  8. (13) Jazz (10-5) Suns (4-4)
  9. (16) Mavericks (10-7)
  10. (2) Blazers (9-7)
  11. (24) Grizzlies (9-6)
  12. (17) Magic (11-4)
  13. (12) Spurs (10-7)
  14. (7) Clippers (9-6)
  15. (14) Pacers (11-4)
  16. (11) Timberwolves (7-9)
  17. (19) Rockets (9-7)
  18. (8) Suns (6-9)
  19. (20) Celtics (6-9)
  20. (18) Hornets (3-13)
  21. (23) Bucks (6-9)
  22. (22) Warriors (5-10)
  23. (25) Knicks (6-10)
  24. (15) Raptors (4-13)
  25. (21) Cavaliers (6-9)
  26. (29) Nets (5-11)
  27. (28) Kings (6-11)
  28. (27) Pistons (4-13)
  29. (30) Wizards (2-14)
  30. (26) Bobcats (3-14)

Anyway, hopefully the season report will be a semi-regular feature.  Even still, the rankings will be updated at least once a week.

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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #1

So, let me get this straight.  We are trying to squeeze in 66 games in 4 months, instead of the normal 82 games in 6 – all of this with a two week training camp and offseason?  And the basketball was going to be good?  Ummm … ok.  Yeah, the Christmas games between New York and Boston and the Lakers and the Bulls were false alarms apparently – as we have had some really crappy basketball to start the year.  How crappy?  Well, last year overall we were averaging 1.045 points per possession.  Right now, the number is 0.998.  Put simply, was was 27th a year ago is 15th right now – yeeah.  So if you thought the points have dropped off (with the pace staying the same), you’re right.  Even if we just compare the first 125 games of the league season (how many games have been played to date), last season we had 1.033 points per possession.  1.033 this year would place you at 8th in the league.  Compare some other stats across the last two season’s first 125 games:

  • Turnover Rate: Last Year: 15.9% of possessions, This Year: 15.9%
  • TS%: Last Year: 54%, This Year: 52%
  • Shots per possession: Last Year: 0.98, This Year: 0.96.

Basically the game has slowed, down – teams are shooting less efficiently, and getting fewer looks at the basket.  It is tempting to salute defense, but this early in the season – one thinks that it is more shoddy play than high quality defending.

That said, despite the hide your eyes bad level of offensive play, and the way too aggressive schedule – the league is starting to unfold.  The latest rankings are in a permanent home this year, so hopefully you can skip right to the good stuff without reading all this jibberish.  However, if you are reading this – might as well get some observations out of the way:

  1. Yes, that is right, the Sixers start out at #1.  You get through a five game road trip to start the season with just two losses and have a +15 normalized scoring margin?  You’re doing something right.  As we know, Doug Collins – the Al Dunlap of NBA Coaches – took this merry band of misfits into a playoff team a year ago, and with almost no personnel changes – what is this?  The Sixers have the league’s top offense AND league’s top defense, and the way they have done both is a study in contrasts.  On offense, it has been a possession based strategy – the Sixers turn the ball over less than anybody, and have ended up 2nd in the league in shots per possession.  Take a pretty good 6th in TS%, and you have a team that is scoring at a very high level.  On defense, they have struggled taking the ball away or preventing offensive rebounds.  This could cause a problem down the road, but their top ranked TS% defense has held up its end of the bargain.  They have been very strong in all phases of ball shooting defense – tops in FG defense, tops in fewest FTs allowed, tops in fewest three point looks.
  2. The Heat of course were the favorites entering, and have done nothing to dissuade those bullish about them.  One obvious thing the Heat have changes tactically is getting out and running.  Their pace has risen from 21st to tops in the league – and so have the points, as they are still a good offensive team.   The pace increase has come from obviously their own priorities, but also their league leading turnover forcing defense – lot of chances to get into the open floor.  That said, there are some things to clean up – in particular trouble defending the 3 and fouling too much.  But the Heat are the league’s best TS%, and it is hard to say a whole lot bad about them.  The win at Atlanta with a skeleton crew and no James or Wade was particularly impressive.
  3. On the other end of the spectrum is the local entry, the Washington Wizards.  They are the league’s worst offense – by 4 points over 29th place.  To put it another way, the difference between 29 and 30 is larger than the difference between #29 and #25.  The Wizards badness on offense is a bit of a surprise with one of the league’s best offensive coaches in Flip Saunders and the Point Guard of the Future in John Wall.  However, John Wall has just been a dreadful shooter, and the Wizards in general do not seem to be getting good shots.  They are bad at shooting in general, and shoot two many contested two pointers – consider they are 29th in three point rate and 24th in FT attempts.  The Wizards have a knack for avoiding all high efficiency scoring – and as a result they are 30th in the league with a thud in TS%.

As far as the rankings through the games of 1/8/12?

  1. Sixers (5-2)
  2. Blazers (6-2)
  3. Heat (8-1)
  4. Nuggets (6-3)
  5. Bulls (7-2)
  6. Hawks (6-3)
  7. Clippers (4-2)
  8. Suns (4-4)
  9. Lakers (6-4)
  10. Thunder (8-2)
  11. Timberwolves (3-5)
  12. Spurs (6-3)
  13. Jazz (5-3)
  14. Pacers (6-2)
  15. Raptors (3-5)
  16. Mavericks (4-5)
  17. Magic (6-3)
  18. Hornets (3-6)
  19. Rockets (2-6)
  20. Celtics (4-4)
  21. Cavaliers (4-4)
  22. Warriors (2-6)
  23. Bucks (2-6)
  24. Grizzlies (3-5)
  25. Knicks (4-4)
  26. Bobcats (2-6)
  27. Pistons (2-6)
  28. Kings (3-6)
  29. Nets (2-7)
  30. Wizards (0-8)

Anyway, hopefully the season report will be a semi-regular feature.  Even still, the rankings will be updated at least once a week.

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2011 NFL Power Rankings #3

Another week, another number one bites the dust.  Of course, as the underlying quality of the teams gets revealed, some of the movement in the rankings is explained there.  Also – now with 4 games down, the “good team” criteria kicks in.  So if a team has at least played 1/3 of their schedule (1 game so far) against > .500 RPI teams, the games count in that comparison criteria.  Anyway, at number one is probably the people’s number one:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Packers 4 0 0.802 (1) 19.875 (2) 31
2 Lions 4 0 0.776 (2) 15.104 (5) 30
3 Patriots 3 1 0.696 (5) 17.979 (3) 27
4 Bills 3 1 0.698 (4) 13.521 (6) 27
5 Saints 3 1 0.724 (3) 17.208 (4) 27
6 Titans 3 1 0.651 (6) 12.063 (8) 26
7 Ravens 3 1 0.651 (6) 21.292 (1) 26
8 Texans 3 1 0.63 (9) 12.375 (7) 23
9 Cowboys 2 2 0.573 (13) 12 (9) 23
10 49ers 3 1 0.599 (11) 8.083 (10) 21
11 Redskins 3 1 0.641 (8) 6.833 (13) 20
12 Raiders 2 2 0.542 (15) 7.938 (11) 19
13 Jets 2 2 0.526 (17) 6.938 (12) 18
14 Bucs 3 1 0.554 (14) 3.917 (18) 18
15 Giants 3 1 0.618 (10) 6.625 (15) 17
16 Bengals 2 2 0.516 (19) 6.563 (16) 16
17 Bears 2 2 0.49 (20) 6.792 (14) 16
18 Steelers 2 2 0.526 (17) 4.188 (17) 12
19 Broncos 1 3 0.401 (22) 1.917 (20) 12
20 Chargers 3 1 0.583 (12) -1.229 (23) 9
21 Falcons 2 2 0.536 (16) -2.75 (26) 8
22 Jaguars 1 3 0.354 (25) -6.292 (27) 7
23 Eagles 1 3 0.354 (24) 1.042 (21) 6
24 Browns 2 2 0.406 (21) -6.333 (28) 5
25 Panthers 1 3 0.333 (26) 0.042 (22) 5
26 Cardinals 1 3 0.297 (28) 3.208 (19) 5
27 Seahawks 1 3 0.302 (27) -8.167 (29) 3
28 Dolphins 0 4 0.234 (30) -2.208 (24) 2
29 Vikings 0 4 0.255 (29) -2.396 (25) 2
30 Chiefs 1 3 0.359 (23) -12.063 (32) 1
31 Colts 0 4 0.214 (32) -9.208 (30) 0
32 Rams 0 4 0.229 (31) -10.354 (31) 0

Notes?

  • Detroit leaps to #2 both by staying unbeaten and beating a team who has been well regarded so far.  Dallas, #9 on this list, is only 2-2, but has played four good opponents.  They are just a bit behind Green Bay, though I think it is fair to say GB passes the eye test as well as the numerical one.
  • Baltimore, with the best adjusted scoring margin in the league, seems to have the most upside of any team on the list.  They have shown a propensity to score, though the Sunday game against the Jets was a different deal with all those returns and whatnot.
  • It is impossible to write this without mentioning the Eagles, suddenly 1-3 and 2 games off the pace in the NFC East.  Given the crazy level of turnover they underwent, it stands to reason that they will be a better team in Week 10 than now.  However, the team has to put some games away, or it might be too late.  This is not the NBA or baseball, where you have 50 games to iron things out.
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2010 NFL Power Rankings – Final

Well, one week of the playoffs is already in the can … that said, for posterity’s sake, here are the final numbers:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Patriots 14 2 0 17.09 3.481 2 1
2 Packers 10 6 0 13.324 2.745 6 3
3 Steelers 12 4 0 12.965 2.653 9 4
4 Falcons 13 3 0 10.79 1.353 22 5
5 Chargers 9 7 0 9.833 0.833 24 2
6 Ravens 12 4 0 8.99 1.803 16 7
7 Jets 11 5 0 8.251 2.329 11 8
8 Eagles 10 6 0 7.571 2.164 12 6
9 Saints 11 5 0 6.634 0.29 28 9
10 Colts 10 6 0 6.559 1.872 14 10
11 Bears 11 5 0 6.182 1.666 20 13
12 Raiders 8 8 0 4.792 1.495 21 15
13 Giants 10 6 0 4.647 0.475 25 11
14 Titans 6 10 0 4.588 1.854 15 12
15 Lions 6 10 0 3.851 2.851 5 16
16 Chiefs 10 6 0 3.771 -0.479 30 14
17 Bucs 10 6 0 3.59 0.403 27 21
18 Texans 6 10 0 1.895 2.458 10 19
19 Dolphins 7 9 0 1.302 3.302 3 17
20 Cowboys 6 10 0 1.125 1.797 17 20
21 Browns 5 11 0 0.733 2.671 7 18
22 Bengals 4 12 0 0.317 3.755 1 27
23 Vikings 6 10 0 0.218 2.656 8 24
24 49ers 6 10 0 -0.447 0.459 26 28
25 Redskins 6 10 0 -0.87 1.974 13 26
26 Rams 7 9 0 -1.355 -0.871 31 25
27 Jaguars 8 8 0 -1.423 0.952 23 22
28 Bills 4 12 0 -3.284 3.231 4 23
29 Seahawks 7 9 0 -3.974 0.151 29 29
30 Broncos 4 12 0 -4.008 1.773 18 30
31 Cardinals 5 11 0 -8.242 -0.945 32 31
32 Panthers 2 14 0 -9.675 1.732 19 32

If we used the raw numbers from this thing for the wild card round, we would have had (without adjusting for home field):

Saints by 10.6 over the Seahawks, Jets by 1.8 over the Colts, Ravens by 5.2 over the Chiefs, Packers by 5.7 over the Eagles.  Pat on the back for me, even if my picks did not make the mark!

For the record, incorporating the Week 18 results, the raw numbers for this weekends matchups (the delta in “margin”):

Steelers by 2.8 over the Ravens, Packers by 2.6 over the Falcons, Patriots by 8.7 over the Jets, Bears by 9.3 over the Seahawks … picks to come later in the week

 

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2010 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round

Wow, it HAS been a while, hasn’t it? Anyhoo, Happy New Year to this teeny tiny following here, and I hope that your holidays have been good. Writing from India, obviously great blogging time has been intermittent. (Thus the dearth of power rankings) Of course, there will be posts covering that adventure forthcoming.

However, there is the business at hand, the wild card round and the four matches. With time a wastin before my flight tonight, time to get some wrong picks out there. This way if I am wrong, I have to be accountable – I did not attend Tom Coughlin’s school of blame shifting.

New Orleans Saints (-10.5) at Seattle Seahawks: It is hard for this to not offend my sensibility. The Seahawks of Pete Carroll, by virtue of their location in the truly execrable NFC West, rode a 7-9 record to a home game against the Saints. The Saints are considerable still, though lacking the creds of last year, in particular a decimated running back corps. The defense has been less turnover strong than a year ago. But come on! Even with home field, the Seabags were one of the league’s worst most of the season, and they were debating QBs for the game. The only question is if the Saints cover. Saints 34, Seahawks 17

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5): Rematch of last year’s AFC title game. The Jets are better, the Colts are worse. Now, the Jets have issues running consistently, while Mark Sanchez is beat up at quarterback. The defense is strong though. However the blitz heavy defense is made to order for Peyton Manning if his line can block. And they’ll have to with their injuries at skill positions and their near total inability to run. Peyton can make any prognosticator look bad, but the Jets have to be smarter in their defense this season, especially with a stronger cornerback tandem. Few points but Jets 20, Colts 14

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5): Rematch of week 1, but this might as well not be. That Eagle team thought Kevin Kolb would be starting. Instead we have the force of nature that is Mike Vick back in the playoffs for the first time in 6 seasons. The Eagles are the most dynamic offense in the league with unmatched big play ability from both passing and running avenues. The Packers have a big play defense and their own force of nature in Aaron Rodgers quarterbacking, but a line that gives him little help, and a total inability to run the football. The Eagles defense makes plays but gives points up, while their return and kicking game require no explanation. Anyway, this is clearly the best game of the weekend. The Eagles do just enough. Eagles 31, Packers 28

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs: The playoffs are back in Kansas City, which is neat. And this team is in line with what the 90s Martyball teams would love – running hard, passing smart, strong defense. Baltimore clearly is an elite team, especially when they keep the offense focused around Ray Rice like they did in their win over the Saints in Week 15. The defense gets the ink, but they have given up big ground games to opponents much of the year. In a lot of ways this is an offense driven Raven team between Flacco, Rice and their depth at receiver. Baltimore scares me as a Patriots fan but they have to advance first, and the Chiefs might be the wrong matchup. This is no fun without calling a surprise. Chiefs 23, Ravens 20

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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 7

As the rankings continue – we are in the throes of quite the New York Knick streak, as well as the Heat taking advantage of a dip in their schedule.  But at the tippy top, not a ton has changed.  As always, you can find the methodology here.

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Celtics 19 4 102.906 (6) 92.308 (1) 1.826 1.781 (19) 14.206
2 Heat 18 8 104.422 (4) 94.13 (3) 1.615 2.009 (15) 13.917
3 Spurs 20 3 105.569 (1) 96.073 (8) 1.37 0.895 (27) 11.761
4 Mavericks 19 5 102.126 (9) 95.565 (7) 1.313 2.279 (10) 10.153
5 Bulls 15 8 98.111 (16) 93.99 (2) 1.674 2.823 (2) 8.617
6 Lakers 17 7 104.276 (5) 97.074 (11) 1.75 -0.659 (30) 8.293
7 Magic 16 8 100.789 (14) 95.443 (6) 1.75 0.901 (26) 7.997
8 Jazz 18 8 102.177 (8) 98.515 (14) 1.346 2.656 (5) 7.665
9 Hornets 14 10 96.87 (20) 95.131 (5) 1.75 3 (1) 6.49
10 Hawks 16 9 101.628 (11) 98.46 (13) 1.68 1.518 (22) 6.366
11 Nuggets 14 9 102.863 (7) 101.481 (18) 1.826 2.456 (7) 5.665
12 Sixers 8 15 98.665 (15) 96.903 (10) 1.674 1.383 (24) 4.819
13 Thunder 17 8 101.233 (12) 100.655 (17) 1.82 1.853 (18) 4.251
14 Pacers 11 12 96.548 (22) 96.16 (9) 1.826 1.869 (17) 4.082
15 Knicks 16 9 104.499 (3) 102.116 (21) 1.96 -0.583 (29) 3.761
16 Bucks 10 13 93.761 (29) 94.564 (4) 1.674 2.757 (3) 3.629
17 Suns 11 12 104.836 (2) 105.671 (30) 1.826 2.138 (14) 3.129
18 Rockets 9 14 101.729 (10) 102.084 (19) 1.978 1.412 (23) 3.035
19 Blazers 12 13 98.059 (18) 99.023 (15) 2.1 1.78 (20) 2.916
20 Bobcats 8 15 95.96 (25) 98.299 (12) 1.826 2.356 (8) 1.843
21 Raptors 9 15 100.946 (13) 103.483 (25) 1.75 2.194 (13) 1.407
22 Grizzlies 11 14 97.731 (19) 100.007 (16) 1.82 1.763 (21) 1.307
23 Warriors 8 16 98.061 (17) 103.632 (26) 2.042 2.692 (4) -0.837
24 Nets 6 18 96.316 (23) 102.087 (20) 1.896 2.514 (6) -1.361
25 Timberwolves 6 18 96.021 (24) 102.631 (23) 1.896 2.203 (12) -2.511
26 Clippers 5 20 95.57 (27) 103.004 (24) 1.4 2.283 (9) -3.75
27 Pistons 7 18 96.836 (21) 103.711 (27) 1.96 1.058 (25) -3.857
28 Wizards 6 16 95.933 (26) 104.905 (29) 1.909 2.265 (11) -4.798
29 Kings 5 16 94.954 (28) 102.345 (22) 1.333 -0.144 (28) -6.202
30 Cavaliers 7 17 93.481 (30) 104.029 (28) 1.896 1.922 (16) -6.731

For this week’s results, let’s play name that team:  Team A and Team B are the mystery teams:

Team A is 13th in the league in shooting percentage, 10th in FG defense, Team B is 19th and 21st respectively

Team A shoots the three decently (10th) and is even better at defending it (5th), while Team B is bad at both (27th and 30th)

Team A is not good at he foul game, drawing (22nd) or allowing (25th), while Team B is the 2nd best team at getting to the line, and good at not fouling (12th).  As a result of these numbers Team A is 17th in the league in TS% while Team B is 13th.  Defensively Team A is 9th while Team B is 15th.

In terms of shot quantity, Team A places some priority on getting back on defense, with its 22nd ranked offensive rebounding, but defends its own glass nicely (7th).  The defense and offense are cautious with being 11th at turning the ball over and only 22nd in forcing them.  As such, Team A is average (14th and 13th) and getting and preventing scoring chances.

Team B also does not offensively rebound much (20th) and is careful with turnovers (10th).  However the defensive rebounding is 23rd though they force more turnovers than Team A, they are not elite there (14th).  The result is that Team B is 16th at getting scoring chances and 20th at preventing them.

So, Team A is an average shooting team that gets an average amount of shots, but a solidly above average team at shooting defense while being average at preventing looks.  Team B is better offensively, though not by much and is substantially worse defensively in terms of both quality and quantity.

Team A is the Philadelphia 76ers while Team B is the New Orleans Hornets.  The Sixers are 8-15 while the Thunder are 17-9 despite having very similar fundamentals.  In fact, one can argue that the Sixers have played better so far – but somehow the results have not caught up.  This leads to a conclusion that the Thunder have won a lot of close games, stuff that is the sign of a team “knowing how to win”.  Of course this is nonsense, and a function of random occurrence.  As such, the Sixers have reason to hope – and the Thunder still need to be careful.

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NFL Power Rankings – Week 10

Another week of strange results, none stranger than the Miami Dolphins lining up six guys behind center to beat the Tennessee Titans.  As the season evolves, the movements up and down the table get smaller.  That said, when you hang 59 points up, it gets you noticed.  As always this is a combination of scoring margin and opponents scoring margin against other teams – this week’s story is about the actual data, and not the ordinal data per se:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Titans 5 4 0 11.663 2.969 9 1
2 Packers 6 3 0 11.25 1.583 19 3
3 Jets 7 2 0 10.649 2.26 13 4
4 Steelers 6 3 0 10.521 4.382 2 2
5 Eagles 6 3 0 10.32 3.431 4 9
6 Patriots 7 2 0 9.219 2.524 12 12
7 Falcons 7 2 0 8.552 2.108 17 8
8 Colts 6 3 0 8.336 0.28 24 6
9 Chargers 4 5 0 8.056 1.611 18 7
10 Ravens 6 3 0 7.618 2.229 14 11
11 Giants 6 3 0 5.883 0.078 25 5
12 Lions 2 7 0 5.878 3.045 8 10
13 Raiders 5 4 0 5.809 0.642 23 15
14 Browns 3 6 0 5.313 4.868 1 14
15 Saints 6 3 0 4.809 -1.914 32 16
16 Chiefs 5 4 0 3.938 -0.007 26 13
17 Dolphins 5 4 0 3.681 3.958 3 21
18 Bears 6 3 0 3.347 -1.042 29 19
19 Vikings 3 6 0 1.851 2.795 10 17
20 Bengals 2 7 0 0.854 2.132 16 22
21 Broncos 3 6 0 -0.01 3.156 6 26
22 Rams 4 5 0 -0.198 -1.67 31 23
23 Redskins 4 5 0 -0.303 3.086 7 18
24 Texans 4 5 0 -0.328 2.561 11 20
25 Seahawks 5 4 0 -1.443 -0.054 27 27
26 49ers 3 6 0 -1.455 1.212 20 25
27 Cowboys 2 7 0 -1.963 2.176 15 29
28 Bucs 6 3 0 -1.966 -1.521 30 24
29 Jaguars 5 4 0 -3.368 1.076 21 30
30 Bills 1 8 0 -4.191 3.253 5 31
31 Cardinals 3 6 0 -6.686 0.786 22 28
32 Panthers 1 8 0 -10.748 -0.137 28 32

As I mentioned above, the actual numbers are the story of the NFL right now, much less so than the Titans still measuring up as the #1 team in the league.  Why is this the case?  Well, let’s take a trip down memory lane to last year’s final rankings.

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 Saints 13 3 0 12.538 0.475 25
2 Patriots 10 6 0 12.133 3.227 5
3 Packers 11 5 0 11.944 0.413 27
4 Vikings 12 4 0 11.874 0.64 23
5 Ravens 9 7 0 11.219 2.063 11
6 Cowboys 11 5 0 10.699 2.011 13
7 Chargers 13 3 0 10.188 0.423 26
8 Colts 14 2 0 9.914 1.711 18
9 Jets 9 7 0 9.729 1.901 14
10 Eagles 11 5 0 9.171 1.858 16
11 Falcons 9 7 0 6.74 2.943 6
12 Panthers 8 8 0 5.963 4.01 2
13 Texans 9 7 0 5.575 0.388 29
14 Steelers 9 7 0 5.55 1.05 20
15 49ers 8 8 0 5.202 0.389 28
16 Cardinals 10 6 0 4.446 -0.429 32
17 Bengals 9 7 0 4.286 2.333 8
18 Dolphins 7 9 0 3.912 4.037 1
19 Broncos 8 8 0 3.553 1.85 17
20 Giants 8 8 0 3.203 3.265 4
21 Titans 8 8 0 1.861 2.205 9
22 Bears 7 9 0 0.74 1.881 15
23 Bills 6 10 0 -0.157 2.343 7
24 Redskins 4 12 0 -2.254 0.215 30
25 Jaguars 7 9 0 -2.682 0.896 21
26 Bucs 3 13 0 -4.159 3.747 3
27 Chiefs 5 11 0 -5.081 0.513 24
28 Browns 5 11 0 -5.145 1.23 19
29 Seahawks 5 11 0 -5.289 0.039 31
30 Raiders 5 11 0 -6.96 2.181 10
31 Lions 2 14 0 -10.271 2.057 12
32 Rams 1 15 0 -13.181 0.756 22

As we see even with the flawed sample here, that the top rating of 12.5 points (and remember these are points scored netted by opponents scoring margin) is higher than the current Titans score of 11.7.   And the league worst Panthers rating of -10.7 is significantly better than the Rams’ -13.2 stinkfest.  Put into English, the league is squished together more this season.  Indeed, the median for this year to date is 3.7 versus last year’s 4.3.  Of course last year, we know the Colts and Saints sat people the last couple of weeks.  So let’s cut this off at Week 14:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 Saints 13 1 0 15.493 0.814 25
2 Colts 14 0 0 14.307 2.539 9
3 Ravens 8 6 0 12.084 2.477 10
4 Patriots 9 5 0 11.972 3.544 3
5 Eagles 10 4 0 11.075 1.468 18
6 Vikings 11 3 0 10.768 0.072 28
7 Chargers 11 3 0 9.875 0.946 23
8 Cowboys 9 5 0 8.714 1.964 16
9 Packers 9 5 0 8.408 -0.36 30
10 Giants 8 6 0 7.431 3.163 4
11 Bengals 9 5 0 6.668 2.026 15
12 Jets 7 7 0 6.498 1.123 20
13 Cardinals 9 5 0 6.079 0.151 27
14 Broncos 8 6 0 5.66 2.321 11
15 Texans 7 7 0 5.535 0.856 24
16 49ers 6 8 0 5.438 2.759 8
17 Falcons 7 7 0 5.275 3.9 1
18 Dolphins 7 7 0 4.399 3.613 2
19 Steelers 7 7 0 4.274 0.024 29
20 Titans 7 7 0 3.663 2.806 6
21 Panthers 6 8 0 1.988 2.952 5
22 Jaguars 7 7 0 -0.727 1.433 19
23 Bears 5 9 0 -1.265 1.717 17
24 Bills 5 9 0 -1.654 1.096 21
25 Redskins 4 10 0 -2.122 -0.479 31
26 Seahawks 5 9 0 -4.381 -0.81 32
27 Bucs 2 12 0 -5.989 2.797 7
28 Browns 3 11 0 -6.633 2.082 14
29 Raiders 5 9 0 -6.823 2.302 12
30 Chiefs 3 11 0 -8.12 0.415 26
31 Lions 2 12 0 -10.148 2.191 13
32 Rams 1 13 0 -12.059 1.048 22

The bookends are even MORE pronounced once we removed the garbage time week.  In fact last year by that time, there were four teams that graded higher than any team does this year.  Last year, there was only one team within three points of the Saints (the Colts).  As of now there are 7 teams separated by that margin at the top.  I am not sure if Tennessee is the best, and the wins sure don’t indicate that they are.  But the numbers are so constricted that their case that they could be … is not torn to crap – not yet anyway.

As far as other news goes?  The Bucs are sure low ranked for a 28th rated team.  Deal with it, they need to beat somebody we respect  Finally, I am not sure if the Eagles are the 2nd best team in the NFC, but if Vick is healthy and it clicks like last night – their offense can surely impersonate an unbeatable lot.