Tag Archives: Portland

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #8

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , ,

Can you believe it?  We are already down to the last third of the season.  The Bulls even have less than 20 games to go.  It feels so abrupt that playoffs and playoff form need to be discussed.  Of course we have the trade deadline, and some early after effects.  We covered the deals of course here.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (1) Heat (34-11)
  2. (2) Bulls (38-10)
  3. (3) Thunder (34-12)
  4. (4) Sixers (26-20)
  5. (5) Spurs (29-14)
  6. (10) Hawks (26-20)
  7. (6) Lakers (28-18)
  8. (11) Magic (29-18)
  9. (8) Nuggets (25-21)
  10. (7) Mavericks (27-20)
  11. (14) Pacers (26-18)
  12. (12) Grizzlies (25-19)
  13. (13) Clippers (27-19)
  14. (15) Rockets (25-22)
  15. (20) Knicks (22-24)
  16. (16) Celtics (24-21)
  17. (9) Blazers (21-25)
  18. (17) Timberwolves (22-24)
  19. (22) Bucks (21-24)
  20. (19) Warriors (18-25)
  21. (18) Jazz (24-22)
  22. (21) Suns (23-23)
  23. (23) Hornets (11-34)
  24. (25) Cavaliers (17-26)
  25. (24) Raptors (15-31)
  26. (26) Kings (17-29)
  27. (28) Pistons (16-29)
  28. (27) Nets (15-32)
  29. (29) Wizards (10-34)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-37)

Some notes:

  • Wowee.  Some plunge the Blazers have taken.  It’s not the losses, but the sheer lack of competitiveness.  I personally was surprised they didn’t stop after firing Nate McMillan (who is a terrific coach, but clearly had wore out his welcome).  But since the deadline the Blazers have been the worst team in the league.  They obviously shook up a lot and pulled a heist trading Gerald Wallace to the Nets.  That said, still – a lot of guys have mailed this season in.
  • Granted the post deadline stats reveal little considering the sample sizes, but the Bucks have clearly benefited from their move.  In particular they have been the top offense since the deadline with a staggering 117 points per game (pace adjusted), 8 points better than the Knicks (who have been inspired since their coaching change).  But the Bucks are also defending much better, which feels less sustainable given the personnel changes.  But the Bucks needed offense, and they needed guys who weren’t injured.  The trade has accomplished both from early evidence.
  • The Bobcats are still awful, and I know nothing about the West aside from the Thunder and Spurs being atop it.  The Lakers are 3rd yes, but still a mere 4 games ahead of 9th place.  It is very unlikely they miss the playoffs, but not impossible.

 

Dare to be Stupid – Two Teams, Two Big Moves, One Broken Heart

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Kendrick Perkins has his limitations.  If you are throwing the ball down to him possession after possession, your offense probably needs a lot of help.  He can’t hit a 20 footer.  But he is a hellacious defender, knew what he was, and a great screen setter.  His scowl was one of the iconic images of this current generation of Celtics.  So his trade hits home a bit.  You hate losing people who have won titles for you.  But you don’t want to overvalue your own guys either.  Perk was not over or underrated, but properly valued by this team.  But he was a player who had trade value.

Celtics get Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic and a protected 2012 first round pick (originally Clippers)

Thunder get Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson

The Celtics are shifting to be a smaller team.  Jeff Green gives their roster some positional flexibility they did not have previously – he can swing between the 3 and 4, and they can deploy lineups like they did in 2008 with James Posey.  However, their ability to defend the post has been substantially weakened.  However, can their strong defensive concept allow then to manage using Glen Davis, an acquired buyout.  The draft pick is useful, whenever it gets cashed in – and the Celtics are in excellent position after this 2 year run is over.  However, for the immediate term, this is a risk.  (The Celtics also freed up some roster spots by dealing Marquis Daniels, Luke Harangody and Semih Erden – but really I have nothing to say)

For the Thunder, this gives them the size underneath they lacked against the Lakers.  Perkins is not a 35 minute a game stalwart, but he is sure as hell a 25-30 minute one when healthy.  He is tough and rugged and able to match up with the bottomless array of West bigs.  Robinson – well he is fun, but I am not sure how he fits in their plans, although he does some of the same things Russell Westbrook does – so their 2nd unit might have use.

However, this is not the end of either team’s moves:

Thunder get Nazr Mohammed

Bobcats get DJ White and Morris Peterson

The Thunder get a useful big man to tag team with Perkins for two players I forgot existed?  Sign Sam Presti up!  Obviously the Peterson deal is a classic salary cap corpse – he might not play a day for the cheapskate Bobcats.  DJ White I remember from the Hoosier days.  He has some ability and potential I suppose – I mean they had to acquire him for some reason, right?

**************************************************************************

The Bobcats also moved their one all-star:

Blazers get Gerald Wallace

Bobcats get Joel Pryzbilla, Sean Marks, Dante Cunningham a 2011 first round pick and a 2013 protected pick

This feels like the Bobcats got a haul.  Really they got Cunningham, two picks and a couple of expiring deals.  I’m sure that will make their fans feel better.  The Blazers get a good small forward with some power forward skills.  Considering their push to make the playoffs – and how soft the Western Conference bottom is at this point, why the hell not.

2011 NBA Preview – The Dirty Dozen

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Six hours and 10 minutes to go before the store opens for the 2011 season.  12 teams left to countdown.  At this point, we are left with all teams that have a more than theoretical chance to win it all, although certainly a lot has to go right for some of the entries.  The flotsam, is passed:

12. Houston Rockets (16th overall in 2010, 19th offense, 17th defense)

Yao is back, albeit in a highly controlled role.  Kevin Martin, almost as brittle, gives them the best shooting guard they’ve had since Tracy McGrady was still alive.  Last year Rick Adelman used smoke and mirrors to keep them in the playoffs.  Luis Scola is a very good complimentary player – they have a very deep lineup.  Really, this is a team that could make a huge run, if Yao can hold up and if he can become a serious contributor late in the season.  Big ifs, so I will leave them here out of respect for Adelman and the talent Darryl Morey has assembled.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Yao and Kevin Martin give them the dynamic duo – and a healthy dynamic duo at that.

11. Milwaukee Bucks (15th overall in 2010, 23rd offense, 3rd defense)

They won last year with Brandon Jennings youth, Andrew Bogut making a mini-Leap, and the 3rd best defense in the league.  In particular, they forced turnovers at a high rate while being the best team in the league at not committing fouls.  This elevated them from their good but not awesome first shot defense into elite territory.  But their 23rd ranked offense needs to improve.  Enter Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette, offensively gifted forwards.  Chris Douglas-Roberts gives some wing options to that end.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Brandon Jennings is as good as his first season hinted, Andrew Bogut is healthy, their defense stays strong while Maggette, one of the game’s most efficient scorers, can bring their offense up.

10. Chicago Bulls (18th overall in 2010, 28th offense, 11th defense)

He will not be healthy to start the season, but Carlos Boozer portends to give the Bulls the low post scorer they have yearned for.  With him and Joakim Noah, they now have a frontcourt to compete with the East’s best.  Derrick Rose is growing, and his work for Team USA portended well.  This was a bad offensive team, particularly deficient at just shooting the ball.  Carlos Boozer will help this along – even if the Bulls were aiming for a bigger prize.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Their defense is as solid as it was by the end of last year, Derrick Rose makes the leap and Carlos Boozer provides that post presence they need to win playoff games.

9. Dallas Mavericks (12th overall in 2010, 10th offense, 12th defense)

It feels like we could write the same blurb about this team for the last 5 years.  Dirk is a GREAT player, and his cast is solid but old.  They are coached well largely, though it has not always manifested in the playoffs.  It feels like this lineup has a finite amount of time together.  All of these sentences applied in 2007, 2008 and apply today.  Rodrique Beaubois could be a terrific spark as a combo guard, and Tyson Chandler is a terrific pickup as a defensive big and usable contract.  But really where is the upside here?

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Dirk is 2006-2007 Dirk, Caron Butler is 2008 Caron Butler and Jason Kidd in 2003 Jason Kidd.  Honestly this seems like a stuck outfit.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder (6th overall in 2010, 11th offense, 7th defense)

What???  America’s sweethearts are all the way down here?  Let’s be real.  They were abnormally healthy a year ago.  They play in a brutal division.  The question is whether they make the elite leap now or next year.  Honestly, this is guessing.  Durant is going to be an MVP favorite as he should be, and Russell Westbrook is fringe all-NBA.  That is real.  They will be better than they were last year, but it might not reflect in the standings.  This is a fascinating division.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Durant and the kiddies are all growns up!

7.  Portland TrailBlazers (11th overall in 2010, 7th offense, 13th defense)

This is a very interesting team.  The Thunder burst into our consciousness last season.  The Blazers, with a similar assemblage of talent and growth curve, suffered a comically rash level of injury yet won 50 games.  They have the sheer amount of size to give the Lakers trouble – the length the Jazz lacked.  However, is the health just a glitch or a real problem?  They spent too much money on Wesley Matthews, although he is a fit for what they want to do.  This might be the season for them to make The Leap.  Andre Miller is a good trade asset, as he and Roy are a poor basketball fit.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Greg Oden gets healthy and develops.  Brandon Roy stays healthy.  The young talent just grows up.

6. Utah Jazz (5th overall in 2010, 8th offense, 10th defense)

The Jazz cannot beat the Lakers.  They were not long enough last year.  They aren’t long enough now.  They lost Boozer, but fleeced Minnesota for Al Jefferson who is a more than capable replacement.  They lost Wesley Matthews and Kyle Korver, but Gordon Hayward might be better than either by the end of the season.  Deron Williams is a great PG and Jerry Sloan is a great coach.  This team cannot beat the Lakers but they can beat anybody else.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: The Lakers suffer a fatal incommunicable illness.

5. San Antonio Spurs (4th overall in 2010, 9th offense, 9th defense)

The Spurs are on the downside.  But Manu Ginobli had a career year of sorts, and Tony Parker is playing for a contract.  Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair give them a real chance to keep Duncan’s minutes even more controlled.  The pieces are there for another big run – though it will take some help.  After all, they finished 4th last year!  The problem though is that their defense has slipped from the elite levels of their title years, and their offense is a little less efficient than it used to be.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Duncan, Ginobli and Parker go in the wayback machine a little bit … and their defense gets back towards the 2007 standard.

4. Miami Heat (13th overall in 2010, 18th offense, 4th defense)

Obviously they will be better – I don’t think we need to go over why.  In fact on the wing they will be magical, and Chris Bosh is an elite big, although not a great strength big.  They have a lot of bigs – but very little quality outside of Bosh, though Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony are good team sorts.  They will have trouble defending elite size, and teams that have that can beat them in a short series.  They might win the regular season derby – but teams that can pound them inside could very well beat them.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They can defend real size.

3. Orlando Magic (1st overall in 2010, 2nd offense, 1st defense)

HERE is real size.  The Magic are a great defensive team.  Their depth is spectacular with a second five (Duhon, Anderson, Bass, Gortat, Williams) that could win 20 game in the NBA.  Their size on the wings can at least present some resistance against the Heat’s wing elegance.  If a team cannot handle Dwight Howard with single coverage, that opens up their 3 point attack and they become very very hard to stop.  But if Howard is defended 1 on 1, look out.  They will be active looking for an impact guy via trade.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Dwight Howard becomes seriously unguardable.

2. Boston Celtics (9th overall in 2010, 12th offense, 6th defense)

The Celtics can guard Howard 1 on 1.  That has driven the Magic crazy matchup-wise.  The Celtics rank was low in 2010, but they took care to avoid injury and sacrified playoff positions.  But their defense is elite, and with Garnett being healthier, and all the size they signed in the offseason the Celtics have the chance to be much more rugged than they were last year.  Rondo made The Leap last year, this team just has to manage minutes and be strong.  They might not beat the Heat or Magic, but there is no reason to start with that assumption.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They win one more game.

Los Angeles Lakers (7th overall in 2010, 13th offense, 5th defense)

The Lakers won the title last year, with so much wrong.  Andrew Bynum was hurt so much (as usual), Derek Fisher was HORRIBLE at the point and Kobe Bryant was ailing.  Like the Celtics, the Lakers bet on health over wins in the second half of the year and it worked.  The West has a lot of good teams, but none remotely as good.  This breaks my heart to type, I cannot emphasize enough.  No team can match up with so many styles, and the length they have up front makes them an elite team.  They are a rugged strength team and it is hard to envision a team overpowering them.  Witness the Celtics’ moves in the offseason – it was clearly with this in mind.



 

2010 NBA Draft: Trades and More

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Well, so much for the wisdom of my mock draft notions.  However, the trades continue – and almost all of them were driven by money.  We saw Chicago and Miami seriously clear the deck to possibly add one of the monster free agents.   We also saw a smaller, leaner team like Oklahoma City take advantage of the financial aid.  So let’s go through the trades and where we end up.  We discussed some of them previously, but now for draft night itself.

Chicago Bulls send Kirk Hinrich and the 17th pick (Kevin Serraphin) to the Washington Wizards for a future 2nd round pick: In other words, the Bulls drove Kirk Hinrich to O’Hare in order to get themselves a chance to get 2 of the big kahuna free agents.  Obviously if this nets Lebron and Chris Bosh, this is a major win.  That said, the Wizards did pretty well.  One can quibble on the cash, but the Wizards got a young raw body in Serraphin they could try to develop or stuff overseas – and Hinrich is a very useful 3rd guard to go with Arenas and Wall.  The Wizards might suck next year, but there will be hope and interest.

New Orleans Hornets trade the 11th pick (Cole Aldrich) and Morris Peterson to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 21st pick (Craig Brackins) and the 26th pick (Quincy Pondexter): The Hornets were up against the luxury tax – and these problems endangered the ability to keep the team together, and perhaps made a previously unfathomable Chris Paul trade even theoretically possible.  Fortunately for real NBA fans this might have been averted.  Of course count on the Oklahoma City Thunder and Sam Presti to pounce on the chance to play the draft game.  The Thunder need more bench scoring and more size – Peterson can supply the former.  Cole Aldrich is not a star – but he is one of the surest things in the draft.  He is a rotation player.  The Hornets with Pondexter get an elite athlete and defender, and Craig Brackins has the inside-outside potential to be a good stretch-4 in the league.  Considering they did this deal for financial reasons – they got a solid talent haul.

Oklahoma City Thunder send the 18th pick (Eric Bledsoe) to the Los Angeles Clippers for a lottery protected future #1: Bill Belichick would have wept with joy at this trade.  The Thunder, seeing limited possibilities in this draft, end up spinning Bledsoe to the Clippers for a protected pick.  This keeps them with future draft assets, and if the Clippers make the playoffs it will be as a low seed so what the hell.  For the Clippers, they do get a talented guy who can possibly spell Baron Davis.

Dallas Mavericks trade cash to the Memphis Grizzlies for the 25th pick (Dominique Jones): The Grizzlies had a bunch of picks – they did not want to pay them all, so this made sense – though an international stash might have been better in a stronger international year.  Why the Mavericks moved up to get a guy who replicates what Jason Terry and Rodrique Beaubois do?  Hey, it’s Cuban’s money.

Dallas Mavericks trade the 50th pick (Solomon Alabi) to the Toronto Raptors for a future 2nd round pick and cash: Another roster spot the Mavs did not want to pay.  For the Raptors, who are so size deprived, this was a no brainer.  It’s a shot in the dark – but unlike a first rounder there is no onerous contract to worry about.

Atlanta Hawks trade the 24th pick (Damion James) to the New Jersey Nets for the 27th pick (Jordan Crawford) and the 31st pick (Tibor Pleiss) -  the Hawks spin the 31st pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder for cash: Damion James is a nice player – one of the most NBA ready guys, though his upside is limited.  What is hard to understand is why the Nets dealt a valuable pick (#31) to move up 3 spots in the draft.  The marginal value of the move up is nil.  Jordan Crawford has much more upside than James does.  The Hawks wanted cash more than another player, so of course the Thunder swoop in to clean up the mess and collect another asset to stash overseas.

Minnesota Timberwolves trade the 16th pick (Luke Babbitt) and Ryan Gomes to the Portland TrailBlazers for Martell Webster: This is another curious deal.  Gomes is a useful and only partially guaranteed deal.  Luke Babbitt has as much upside as any wing in the draft.  Martell Webster is a promising young player – but has not really shown that wow.  How this is a fair match I don’t know.  Given that Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard was doing this after being told he would be canned – this is a much better deal than his employers deserve.

Minnesota Timberwolves trade the 23rd pick (Trevor Booker) and the 56th pick (Hamadi Ndiaye) to the Washington Wizards for the 30th pick (Lazar Hayward) and 35th pick (Nemanja Bjeilca): I have no opinion on this.  Booker can play – but I was surprised the Wizards agreed so much.

Indiana Pacers trade the 57th pick (Ryan Reid) and cash to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 51st pick (Magnum Rolle): Rolle is 24, but athletic and tall.  Pacers need that.  I have no idea who Reid is.  

********************************************************************************************

Overall, the Blazers, Thunder and Celtics (who got Avery Bradley – a Monta Ellis talent – with more defense – and Luke Harangody who profiles as the type of player NBA types undervalue) managed the exercise nicely.  The Timberwolves were full of sound and fury – but not sure where it took them.  And then there are the pants (h/t Esquire):

The Final Power Rankings and First Round Picks

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Process here. Rankings there:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Magic 59 23 104.631 (2) 96.214 (1) 1.75 3.166 (30) 13.333
2 Cavaliers 61 21 104.39 (3) 97.272 (8) 1.75 3.173 (29) 12.041
3 Suns 54 28 107.908 (1) 102.168 (19) 1.75 3.276 (25) 10.766
4 Spurs 50 32 102.717 (9) 97.59 (9) 1.75 3.532 (17) 10.41
5 Jazz 53 29 103.122 (8) 98.527 (10) 1.75 3.586 (13) 9.93
6 Thunder 50 32 101.459 (11) 97.188 (7) 1.75 3.584 (14) 9.604
7 Lakers 57 25 101.152 (13) 97.091 (5) 1.75 3.658 (10) 9.47
8 Hawks 53 29 104.132 (4) 100.085 (15) 1.75 3.381 (23) 9.178
9 Nuggets 53 29 103.777 (6) 100.105 (16) 1.75 3.63 (12) 9.051
10 Celtics 50 32 101.165 (12) 97.178 (6) 1.75 3.258 (27) 8.995
11 Blazers 50 32 103.569 (7) 99.894 (13) 1.75 3.415 (21) 8.84
12 Mavericks 55 27 102.457 (10) 98.973 (12) 1.75 3.472 (20) 8.706
13 Heat 47 35 100.305 (18) 96.849 (4) 1.75 3.219 (28) 8.426
14 Bobcats 44 38 97.408 (24) 96.389 (2) 1.75 3.411 (22) 6.18
15 Bucks 46 36 97.553 (23) 96.462 (3) 1.75 3.258 (26) 6.098
16 Rockets 42 40 100.13 (19) 100.907 (17) 1.75 3.928 (2) 4.901
17 Raptors 40 42 103.869 (5) 104.906 (30) 1.75 3.499 (18) 4.211
18 Bulls 41 41 96.563 (28) 98.573 (11) 1.75 3.568 (15) 3.308
19 Hornets 37 45 100.59 (16) 102.895 (22) 1.75 3.741 (7) 3.187
20 Grizzlies 40 42 100.398 (17) 102.932 (23) 1.75 3.739 (8) 2.955
21 Pacers 32 50 97.062 (26) 99.996 (14) 1.75 3.473 (19) 2.288
22 Warriors 26 56 100.65 (14) 104.321 (28) 1.75 3.897 (3) 1.977
23 Kings 25 57 98.103 (22) 102.032 (18) 1.75 3.868 (4) 1.689
24 Knicks 29 53 100.646 (15) 104.386 (29) 1.75 3.346 (24) 1.355
25 Sixers 27 55 99.066 (20) 103.097 (24) 1.75 3.546 (16) 1.265
26 Wizards 26 56 97.101 (25) 102.302 (20) 1.75 3.633 (11) 0.183
27 Clippers 29 53 96.693 (27) 102.357 (21) 1.75 3.866 (5) -0.048
28 Pistons 27 55 98.198 (21) 104.067 (26) 1.75 3.68 (9) -0.439
29 Timberwolves 15 67 94.652 (29) 104.233 (27) 1.75 4.111 (1) -3.719
30 Nets 12 70 94.115 (30) 103.745 (25) 1.75 3.786 (6) -4.094

A key caveat: With the last month being tanking/amateur hour and good teams being judicious with managing players – I suspect the Lakers and Cavaliers are undervalued. That said, still revealing as we get to the end:

  • The Magic have been the best team the second half of the year.  Took the season for Vince Carter to get integrated, and their defense was lazy earlier in the season.  However, back at #1, just like last year.  Their #2 offense is hard to say has dropped off at all.
  • The Cavaliers got off slow too, but rolled down the stretch save for preserving LeBron a bit.
  • Lakers really staggered to the finish.  They seemed to be shoo-ins for the best record for a while.  They can still right the ship, but with a scant 9 games separating the #1 and $#8 seed in the West who knows?

Now for some quick picks for the first round (power ranking in parens) …

EAST:

Cavaliers (2) vs Bulls (18): Bulls played hard down the stretch, Rose is a terrific PG.  But Cavs defend the position well, and there is LeBron.  Cavs in 5

Celtics (10) vs Heat (13): Celtics after a 27-5 start, are a 23-27 team.  This is not a good team right now, though they have played in stretches.  Wade the best player on the floor.  Heat playing better D than Boston, but it’s a toss up.  Celtics in 7

Magic (1) vs Bobcats (14): Top 2 defenses in the league.  Alas the Magic have offensive skill.  Magic in 5.

Hawks (8) vs Bucks (15):  Hawks have been metsa metsa since a fast start.  However, their efficient size-based offense has been there all year.  Bucks are scrappy, tough defensively, but without Bogut the size match is too problematic.  Hawks in 6

WEST:

Lakers (7) vs Thunder (6): You read that right.  Thunder have the better body of work in terms of indicators even with 9 less wins.  Durant is a prime time scorer.  They are a good defensive club (7th).  The Lakers were the top defensive team when healthy though, and the wins and home court count for something.  If Kobe is ready and effective, they should advance.  But the Thunder will not be pushovers.  Lakers in 6

Nuggets (9) vs Jazz (5): Another upside down series.  Jazz hurt themselves badly slipping out of the home court position by getting whomped by Phoenix.  They have played better basketball than Denver all season, but Denver is still better against good teams (5th, Utah 11th).  And with home court, and Utah with an iffy Boozer, they get the edge despite their own myriad of issues.  Nuggets in 7

Mavericks (12) vs Spurs (4): Mavericks have been close game kings all season.  The Spurs have outpaced them in fundamentals most of the season.  Does this mean they will win?  Not sure.  Dallas won in 5 last year and the matchups favor them in a lot of places.  That said Manu is healthy, and we have not had that for a while.  Spurs in 6

Suns (3) vs Blazers (11):  Love this series.  Lots of matchups up front (Amare vs Aldridge), at the point (Nash vs Miller), subplots (Suns vs the slowest paced team in the game … will Roy be effective).  Suns have been the big overachievers in the league this season – their last two wins have been special.  They are as good offensively as ever.  Can they defend the paint though.  This could go any direction, but I just don’t think the Blazers have the offense without Roy at 90%.  Suns in 7

The NBA Trade Deadline – Two So Far

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With the NBA Trade Deadline coming up at 3 PM tomorrow, the league is at an uncertain point.  Allegedly, a lot of teams are floundering financially and are willing to sell players off.  Contenders of course need more talent, and are trying to use expiring deals and cash to make it happen.  Of course, how many deals actually go down will be interesting – contenders seem to be trying to go for the fleecing deals where a smaller talent margin might help more.  So far two deals:

  • Wizards get: Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, Quinton Ross and James Singleton … Mavericks get Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, DeShawn Stevenson

The Wizards begin their sell-off.  Haywood was the Wizards best player this year, but he is ultimately a good but low impact center.  Butler has been awful this season, sporting a poor 13.63 PER and shooting a dicey 41.8%.  He is also a bad defender and part of the selfishness that caused a Wizards team to be 22nd in the league in offense despite having Gil Arenas, Mike Miller and Antawn Jamison on the floor.  The Wizards get expiring contracts in Gooden, Ross, Singleton and Howard (whose 2011 is not guaranteed).   That said, the deal clears a lot off their cap, but they are still over the luxury tax number by 3 million, and still not below the cap (thus able to participate in the free agent market fully).  They still have work to do, but the deal accomplishes what was intended.

For Dallas, the deal seems like a lateral move to me.  Haywood is an improvement on Dampier to a degree, but given that Dirk should be a smallball center at times, it seems like overkill.  Not sure if it helps much.  Caron Butler has been awful – and really aside from health is not an improvement over Josh Howard at least so far this season.  DeShawn Stevenson’s corpse is there to match salaries.  Ultimately the job is to close the gap on Denver and LA, and this deal does not do that.

  • Blazers get Marcus Camby … Clippers get Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw and $$

This deal is a good match for both teams.  Camby is a free agent, and not getting younger.  He probably does not want to retire a Clipper.  So the Clippers converted him into value.  Steve Blake is a useful backup PG, and Travis Outlaw is a high ceiling player and the Clippers get his Bird rights (basically the ability to give a giant raise).  At least Outlaw is a trade asset, and maybe more.  The Blazers of course had such horrible luck with the Oden and Pryzbilla injuries.  They might not be contenders as snakebitten as they have been, but they have a winning record and should make the playoffs.  They owe their fans a chance to go for it – and so they got a center on a short hitch basically for free – or certainly not for assets they would miss.  It is not a conference tilting trade, but the Blazers improved at a low cost.

Week 9 NBA Power Rankings

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Here it is, the Week 9 Power Rankings.  The formula is here, as always.

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Celtics 23 7 102.672 (7) 93.207 (1) 1.867 1.915 (30) 13.247
2 Cavaliers 24 8 103.43 (6) 95.178 (4) 1.969 2.909 (27) 13.13
3 Hawks 21 8 106.107 (2) 99.034 (15) 1.81 2.532 (28) 11.415
4 Mavericks 22 9 101.633 (10) 96.045 (5) 1.694 3.552 (16) 10.833
5 Magic 22 8 102.34 (8) 96.903 (6) 1.75 3.453 (19) 10.64
6 Lakers 24 6 99.826 (15) 93.454 (2) 1.283 2.918 (26) 10.573
7 Spurs 17 11 104.206 (3) 98.452 (10) 1.375 3.33 (21) 10.459
8 Suns 20 12 107.396 (1) 103.112 (26) 1.969 3.871 (10) 10.124
9 Nuggets 20 12 103.965 (4) 99.231 (16) 1.859 2.345 (29) 8.939
10 Blazers 20 13 102.126 (9) 98.458 (11) 1.803 3.299 (22) 8.77
11 Thunder 16 14 99.621 (16) 97.265 (8) 1.75 4.443 (3) 8.549
12 Heat 16 12 101.163 (13) 98.258 (9) 1.25 4.045 (6) 8.199
13 Rockets 18 13 99.443 (17) 99.009 (14) 2.145 4.694 (1) 7.274
14 Jazz 17 13 100.448 (14) 99.683 (18) 1.633 3.986 (7) 6.385
15 Bobcats 12 17 93.11 (27) 94.042 (3) 1.69 3.466 (17) 4.224
16 Raptors 15 17 103.946 (5) 105.845 (30) 1.859 3.758 (13) 3.719
17 Kings 14 16 101.248 (12) 102.556 (24) 1.633 3.159 (24) 3.485
18 Grizzlies 14 16 101.555 (11) 103.729 (28) 1.75 3.758 (12) 3.334
19 Bucks 12 17 95.386 (25) 96.942 (7) 1.569 3.069 (25) 3.082
20 Clippers 13 17 97.371 (23) 99.279 (17) 1.633 3.223 (23) 2.948
21 Knicks 11 19 98.501 (19) 100.654 (20) 1.517 3.454 (18) 2.818
22 Wizards 10 19 97.588 (22) 100.63 (19) 2.052 3.408 (20) 2.418
23 Hornets 13 15 98.124 (20) 102.274 (23) 1.75 3.926 (8) 1.526
24 Pistons 11 19 96.761 (24) 101.324 (21) 1.867 4.12 (5) 1.423
25 Sixers 8 22 99.187 (18) 104.226 (29) 1.867 4.207 (4) 1.035
26 Warriors 9 21 98.055 (21) 102.932 (25) 1.983 3.868 (11) 0.974
27 Pacers 9 20 93.989 (26) 98.678 (12) 1.81 3.733 (14) 0.854
28 Bulls 11 17 92.041 (29) 98.709 (13) 1.625 4.461 (2) -0.581
29 Timberwolves 7 24 92.238 (28) 102.086 (22) 1.694 3.912 (9) -4.243
30 Nets 2 29 90.65 (30) 103.304 (27) 1.919 3.732 (15) -7.003

Some movement from Week 8!

  • The Cavaliers leap based on wins over Sacramento, the Lakers and the Suns on the road – decisively.
  • The Celtics big win on Christmas Day do not sufficiently make up for the losses to the Clippers and Warriors.  Schedule still 30th.
  • I am not sure where 2-29 is on the history of bad starts but it has to be down there.  With their 30th and 27th rankings in offense and defense respectively, the Nets are continuing to flounder in all sorts of ways.
  • The Blazers being 20-13 with this and this happening to them is a credit to Nate McMillan

The Breaks of the Game

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

My favorite baseball book ever was Peter Gammons’ Beyond the Sixth Game, which starts with a team that was the finest young team in baseball, the 1975 Boston Red Sox.  One of the things that time has forgotten a little bit is that when these Sox lost to the Cincinnati Reds, the perception was that this would not be the last big result for this bunch.  Fred Lynn had won the Rookie of the Year and the MVP (and unlike Ichiro, was actually a first time major leaguer).  Carlton Fisk would go on to the Hall of Fame as would Jim Rice – Dwight Evans would be a Gold Glove winner.  The future was so rosy – but then free agency became codified in the sport at the same time.  Gammons explores how the sport fundamentally changed – how market prices started to take over as players had evolved from the reserve-clause indentured servants of yore  to free agents actively pursuing to be paid according to their marginal revenue.  Gammons looks at the league from the inside and out, how it changed locker rooms, how it changed management’s view of players and how different teams coped with the gameboard suddenly changing.

What Gammons captured in Beyond the Sixth Game, David Halberstam captures with remarkable reportage in his The Breaks of the Game. The team is the 1980 Portland Trailblazers.  The team of course, won the title in 1977 – with some perfect chemistry it seemed, Bill Walton at the height of his powers, and Maurice Lucas providing some key help, and a starting lineup of guys age 26 and under.  Like the 1975 Red Sox, the future seemed limitless.  Like the MLB of that time, money was changing thing, and the ABA/NBA merger caused uncertainty.  Halberstam, as he does in all of his books, narrates the season almost as a novel.  There is reporting, but it all flows very naturally.  Every player gets some background, the coach Jack Ramsay is profiled in segments.  But what Halberstam does is bring the individuals to the narrative.

For instance, consider Kermit Washington, the Blazers Power Forward.  Halberstam unobtrusively describes how he became part of compensation (part of the settlement of the merger was that teams who lost free agents were entitled compensation as determined by the commissioner).  But he also discusses a man with a self confidence problem, who learned how to believe himself – who seeked out coaching – who had a home in San Diego he was settling in when he suddenly got traded to Portland.  Bobby Gross, Lenny Wilkens, Bill Walton, Moses Malone (imagine if the Blazers kept him!) all get some dedicated pages in the same vein.  Halberstam’s writing is full of these nuggets.  However, he also talks about television, how the NBA over expanded, how it mismanaged their television dealings – and how CBS had to deal with trying to sell a black game to a white corporate audience.  The book’s narrative is clean – there are not individual chapters dedicated to these individual threads, Halberstam works in and out – while following the Blazers around, trying to handle contract disputes, individual agendas and trying to hang on to the last vestiges of the 1977 glory.

Halberstam was a great reporter and writer, and for basketball books The Breaks of the Game reads so naturally and covers so much.  It is a great read.

Week 5 NBA Power Rankings

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , , ,

And suddenly, some of the men separate from the boys this week – as usual, here is how we calculate this stuff, and here are the results:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Celtics 13 4 102.629 (8) 93.366 (3) 1.441 1.889 (28) 12.593
2 Hawks 12 4 104.922 (2) 98.098 (13) 1.969 3.648 (14) 12.442
3 Lakers 13 3 99.679 (14) 91.982 (1) 0.875 3.763 (12) 12.335
4 Suns 14 3 109.263 (1) 101.532 (22) 2.265 1.899 (27) 11.895
5 Mavericks 13 5 102.647 (7) 96.356 (6) 1.944 3.221 (18) 11.456
6 Spurs 9 6 103.366 (5) 98.136 (14) 1.167 4.178 (10) 10.574
7 Thunder 9 8 97.863 (22) 94.655 (4) 1.853 5.114 (3) 10.174
8 Blazers 12 7 102.238 (10) 95.893 (5) 1.658 2.106 (26) 10.108
9 Cavaliers 12 5 102.18 (11) 96.742 (9) 1.853 2.118 (25) 9.408
10 Magic 14 5 100.666 (12) 96.48 (8) 1.842 2.981 (22) 9.009
11 Jazz 10 7 102.82 (6) 100.336 (19) 1.441 4.449 (8) 8.374
12 Nuggets 12 5 104.625 (4) 98.763 (15) 1.853 0.646 (30) 8.36
13 Rockets 9 8 100.04 (13) 99.59 (18) 1.853 6.012 (1) 8.314
14 Kings 8 8 102.289 (9) 100.794 (20) 1.531 3.493 (17) 6.52
15 Heat 9 7 98.831 (18) 97.192 (10) 1.094 3.181 (19) 5.913
16 Clippers 8 10 98.028 (20) 97.592 (11) 1.556 2.588 (24) 4.58
17 Bobcats 7 9 91.703 (28) 92.071 (2) 1.75 3.124 (20) 4.505
18 Bucks 9 7 97.538 (23) 96.457 (7) 1.531 1.709 (29) 4.321
19 Raptors 7 11 104.752 (3) 108.399 (30) 1.944 5.11 (4) 3.407
20 Pistons 6 11 97.951 (21) 101.627 (23) 1.853 5.095 (5) 3.272
21 Hornets 7 10 99.182 (17) 104.172 (28) 1.853 5.852 (2) 2.715
22 Bulls 6 9 93.38 (27) 98.943 (16) 2.333 5.053 (6) 1.823
23 Pacers 6 9 95.31 (26) 97.755 (12) 1.4 2.686 (23) 1.64
24 Warriors 6 10 99.637 (16) 103.985 (27) 1.969 3.921 (11) 1.542
25 Wizards 5 10 95.522 (25) 101.274 (21) 1.867 4.448 (9) 0.562
26 Sixers 5 13 98.336 (19) 103.909 (26) 1.944 3.552 (15) -0.077
27 Grizzlies 6 12 99.645 (15) 106.304 (29) 2.139 3.496 (16) -1.024
28 Knicks 3 14 96.373 (24) 103.349 (25) 1.647 3.69 (13) -1.639
29 Timberwolves 2 15 89.215 (29) 102.324 (24) 1.647 4.732 (7) -6.729
30 Nets 0 17 86.603 (30) 99.315 (17) 2.265 3.067 (21) -7.38

With this week of sudden change, some observations:

  • Well, that was quick, wasn’t it?  After a one week dash to #1, the Blazers with a 1-2 week highlighted by a disastrous loss at home to Memphis plunge to #8.  To be fair, this is probably closer to the true reality of this team’s talent.  Elite is not far away for them, but the rotation is still in flux.
  • By contrast, the Lakers have suddenly vaulted in the #1 defensive spot, and are slowly charging up the list.  On the other hand, with the league’s most home tilted schedule so far, their margin of victory is a LITTLE compromised.
  • The big positive move of the week was Phoenix.  They have had a hellacious road tilted schedule but suddenly this week they got their shooting shoes on, and have not just moved up to #1 in the league in offense, but #1 by 4.3 points over 2nd place.  To put it in perspective, 4.3 points less than the #2 team is the 12th rated offense.  It is hard to get the wipeout by LA out of one’s mind – but the team’s offense is playing very very confidently.  The 22nd rank defense needs to perk up in the long run (contrary to popular thought, D’Antoni’s teams were not bad defensively) – maybe not #1 but certainly upper half – but no reason that this team can’t stay in some sort of hunt for the regular season.
  • Seeing the Raptors last Friday against the Celtics on the TV – I can attest, their defense and effort is every bit worthy of their 30th ranking.  Wow.

Week 4 NBA Power Rankings

Posted by Sriram in Uncategorized and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

If you want to know, how I do this, check here.  Otherwise, cut to the chase:

Some observations:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Blazers 11 5 102.334 (6) 93.088 (2) 1.75 2.779 (21) 13.774
2 Hawks 11 3 105.086 (3) 98.108 (15) 1.75 4.742 (8) 13.47
3 Celtics 10 4 100.925 (10) 91.466 (1) 1.5 1.383 (28) 12.341
4 Nuggets 9 4 104.52 (4) 98.334 (16) 2.154 3.427 (15) 11.767
5 Lakers 10 3 98.444 (18) 93.356 (3) 0.808 5.614 (3) 11.51
6 Rockets 8 6 101.272 (8) 97.809 (13) 2 5.05 (4) 10.513
7 Mavericks 10 3 100.29 (14) 94.603 (5) 1.885 2.931 (18) 10.502
8 Suns 11 3 107.45 (1) 102.923 (26) 2.25 2.884 (19) 9.661
9 Magic 11 3 101.004 (9) 95.636 (8) 1.75 2.123 (25) 9.24
10 Cavaliers 10 4 101.303 (7) 96.016 (10) 1.75 1.35 (29) 8.388
11 Spurs 6 6 103.34 (5) 100.678 (19) 1.167 4.384 (12) 8.213
12 Thunder 7 7 96.295 (23) 95.121 (6) 2 5.021 (5) 8.196
13 Heat 8 5 100.051 (15) 95.769 (9) 1.077 2.826 (20) 8.184
14 Raptors 6 8 106.949 (2) 108.37 (30) 2 4.844 (7) 5.422
15 Jazz 7 6 100.553 (13) 101.558 (20) 1.885 4.429 (11) 5.309
16 Bucks 8 4 98.182 (19) 95.173 (7) 1.458 0.374 (30) 4.841
17 Kings 5 8 100.801 (12) 102.83 (25) 1.885 4.655 (10) 4.511
18 Pistons 5 9 97.757 (22) 100.2 (18) 2.25 4.34 (13) 4.147
19 Bulls 6 7 92.821 (27) 96.911 (12) 2.154 5.637 (2) 3.7
20 Clippers 6 9 98.073 (20) 98.483 (17) 1.4 2.645 (22) 3.635
21 Pacers 5 6 95.87 (24) 96.602 (11) 1.273 2.421 (24) 2.963
22 Hornets 6 9 99.999 (16) 105.027 (29) 1.867 6.055 (1) 2.894
23 Warriors 4 8 100.84 (11) 104.779 (28) 2.042 3.022 (16) 1.125
24 Bobcats 4 9 89.232 (28) 94.207 (4) 1.885 3.675 (14) 0.585
25 Wizards 3 9 95.236 (25) 102.245 (23) 2.042 4.911 (6) -0.056
26 Grizzlies 5 9 99.087 (17) 104.196 (27) 1.75 3.019 (17) -0.341
27 Sixers 5 8 97.832 (21) 102.567 (24) 1.615 1.545 (27) -1.574
28 Knicks 3 10 95.121 (26) 101.56 (21) 1.346 2.609 (23) -2.485
29 Nets 0 13 86.528 (30) 97.956 (14) 1.885 2.047 (26) -7.497
30 Timberwolves 1 13 87.692 (29) 101.699 (22) 1.75 4.725 (9) -7.532

Some of this week’s takeaways:

  • Given that the Celtics last year started out 27-3, that there is not one 2 loss team left this early in the season is kind of striking. The teams we expected to suck out loud (Grizzlies, Griffin-less Clippers, I’m looking at you) are actually just ordinarily mediocre.
  • A new #1 emerges in Portland.  The Celtics slip to #3 on the strength (weakness) of a ghastly shooting night against the Magic and a very mediocre effort against the Knicks (and frankly, a fairly desultory one against the Warriors).  As a fan, I was getting used to my Lester Hudson sightings.
  • Blazers winning on the strength of an efficient 6th ranked offense, which might not be highlighted by announcers because of their very slow tempo (2nd to last in the league).  Their 2nd ranked defense has been a revelation too – Greg Oden is quietly having an outstanding season – and if he knew how to play without fouling, Bill Simmons’ homoerotic Kevin Durant love would be kind of unfounded.
  • Wow the Timberwolves are bad.  With a good PG in Sessions and an interesting rookie in Flynn and a very capable post player, how they are so constipated offensively is hard to fathom.  At least the Nets have been ravaged by injuries. (btw: how can Lawrence Frank be on the chopping block when his entire starting five and only all star has been hurt most of the season?)
  • Rockets are #6 still – and still, I am stunned.