College Football Rankings Experiment 2013 – Standings #8

(As always, we lay out the process here)

Happy Thursday indeed – well not yesterday for Georgia Tech, but never mind.  But with Stanford beating Oregon in a true good vs evil sort of standoff, that with Alabama’s beat down of LSU starts to make things a bit clearer.  That said, until Baylor starts losing – and they began their hell stretch with a great performance over Oklahoma – there is probably not room for a 1-loss team at the top for the near future.  Where do we stand (this week’s games not included):

  1. (1) Baylor
  2. (2) Florida State
  3. (4) Ohio State
  4. (5) Alabama
  5. (3) Oregon
  6. (8) Stanford
  7. (6) Fresno State
  8. (7) Northern Illinois
  9. (9) Oklahoma State
  10. (10) Auburn
  11. (14) Missouri
  12. (12) Michigan State
  13. (13) South Carolina
  14. (15) Ball State
  15. (19) Arizona State
  16. (16) Clemson
  17. (20) LA-Lafayette
  18. (24) UCF
  19. (–) UCLA
  20. (–) Wisconsin
  21. (23) Louisville
  22. (18) Houston
  23. (–) Texas A&M
  24. (22) BYU
  25. Minnesota

Stanford’s dominant win over Oregon grabbed the headlines, as well it should.  Even if our standings put Oregon as the highest rated Pac-12 team by a smidge (after all Stanford still a better loss than Utah), Stanford is in the Pac-12 drivers seat now, and if they win out – you probably do not have to worry about them not being recognized.  What has happened in that program has been miraculous.  How is the bowl lineup affected?

  1. Baylor v Florida State – the National Title Game
  2. Stanford, Alabama, UCF and Ohio State round out the BCS league champs.  All automatic.
  3. Any non-AQ champ in the Top 12 would go here.  Fresno rings the bell.
  4. Notre Dame not in Final 8 – no worries about them
  5. No other automatic at-larges
  6. This leaves 7 of the 10 spots filled – so 3 at-larges left.  This week they go to Oregon, Oklahoma State, Auburn.  Northern Illinois is tempting, but from a BCS perspective (especially considering last year’s bowl result) the other two schools win out.

So projecting bowls with this lot?

  • BCS Title Game: Baylor v Florida State
  • Rose Bowl:  Stanford v Ohio State
  • Orange Bowl: Auburn v Oregon
  • Sugar Bowl: Alabama v Central Florida
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State v Fresno State

But next year, there won’t be a BCS to kick around, so what would we do then?  Using next year’s alignment – I use a combination of ranking, geographic preference and what would be good on TV:

  • Sugar Bowl (National Semifinal 1): Baylor v Alabama
  • Rose Bowl (National Semifinal 2): Florida State v Ohio State
  • Orange Bowl: Auburn v Michigan State
  • Cotton Bowl: Oregon v Missouri
  • Fiesta Bowl: Stanford v Fresno State
  • Chik-Fil-A Bowl:  Oklahoma State v South Carolina

One final bit of component rankings – for those interested in some of the details of the experiment.  Offense/Defense is based on yards/pts/turnovers and related to the opponent.  So a team which gets 300 yards against a great defense (or great against others) gets more credit than one that gets 300 yards against an opponent who usually engages in track meets. Top 20 offenses

  1. Baylor
  2. Fresno State
  3. Texas A&M
  4. Oregon
  5. Ohio State
  6. Indiana
  7. Arizona State
  8. Alabama
  9. Clemson
  10. Missouri
  11. Houston
  12. LSU
  13. Marshall
  14. East Carolina
  15. Miami-FL
  16. Oklahoma State
  17. UCF
  18. Wisconsin
  19. Northern Illinois
  20. Louisville

Top 20 defenses

  1. Alabama
  2. Stanford
  3. Virginia Tech
  4. Florida State
  5. Michigan State
  6. Florida
  7. Louisville
  8. Wisconsin
  9. USC
  10. BYU
  11. Washington
  12. Missouri
  13. Oregon
  14. Iowa
  15. North Texas
  16. Baylor
  17. Utah State
  18. Ohio State
  19. Kent State
  20. Houston

Top 20 Toughest Schedules

  1. Purdue
  2. Stanford
  3. Virginia Tech
  4. Tennessee
  5. Utah
  6. Pittsburgh
  7. Georgia
  8. Virginia
  9. Arizona State
  10. Ole Miss
  11. Mississippi State
  12. BYU
  13. North Carolina
  14. Kansas
  15. Indiana
  16. Arkansas
  17. California
  18. Oklahoma
  19. South Carolina
  20. Florida

Conferences Ratings

  1. Pac 12 (9.53)
  2. SEC (9.42)
  3. Big 12 (8.97)
  4. Big Ten (8.90)
  5. ACC (8.79)
  6. Sun Belt (7.49)
  7. American (7.05)
  8. Independent (6.77)
  9. MAC (6.63)
  10. Mountain West (6.45)
  11. Conference USA (6.39)

College Football Rankings Experiment 2013 – Standings #7

(As always, we lay out the process here) Well, we don’t have to worry about Miami now, do we?  So we are down to 7, with a couple of fascinating Thursday night games involving two of them – #1 Baylor faces down #17 Oklahoma,  who has already played dream shatterer to Texas Tech, while Oregon tries to avenge its loss to #8 Stanford from a year ago.  Similarly Alabama has their “should not be a big deal on paper” game against #21 LSU.  But we also know LSU has the chops to pull off the upset.  I’d also note #12 Michigan State’s trip to Lincoln as another big game for the shape of the non-Buckeye Big Ten.  The rankings???

  1. (1) Baylor
  2. (2) Florida State
  3. (3) Oregon
  4. (4) Ohio State
  5. (5) Alabama
  6. (7) Fresno State
  7. (9) Northern Illinois
  8. (8) Stanford
  9. (10) Oklahoma State
  10. (11) Auburn
  11. (6) Miami-FL
  12. (15) Michigan State
  13. (16) South Carolina
  14. (17) Missouri
  15. (14) Ball State
  16. (23) Clemson
  17. (19) Oklahoma
  18. (20) Houston
  19. (–) Arizona State
  20. (21) LA-Lafayette
  21. (18) LSU
  22. (22) BYU
  23. (24) Louisville
  24. (25) Central Florida
  25. (–) Arizona

Stanford continues their move up with a solid win on the road against a good Oregon State side – they remain first in line for now among the 1-lossers.  How does this impact the BCS projections?  With the top 3 staying the same, not that much.

  1. Baylor v Florida State – the National Title Game
  2. Oregon, Alabama, Houston and Ohio State round out the BCS league champs.  All automatic.
  3. Any non-AQ champ in the Top 12 would go here.  Fresno rings the bell.
  4. Notre Dame not in Final 8 – no worries about them
  5. No other automatic at-larges
  6. This leaves 7 of the 10 spots filled – so 3 at-larges left.  This week they go to Stanford, Oklahoma State, Auburn

So projecting bowls with this lot?

  • BCS Title Game: Baylor v Florida State
  • Rose Bowl:  Oregon v Ohio State
  • Orange Bowl:  Auburn v Oklahoma State
  • Sugar Bowl: Alabama v Houston
  • Fiesta Bowl: Stanford v Fresno State

But next year, there won’t be a BCS to kick around, so what would we do then?  Using next year’s alignment – I use a combination of ranking, geographic preference and what would be good on TV:

  • Sugar Bowl (National Semifinal 1): Baylor v Ohio State
  • Rose Bowl (National Semifinal 2): Florida State v Oregon
  • Orange Bowl: Miami-FL v Michigan State
  • Cotton Bowl: Alabama v Oklahoma State
  • Fiesta Bowl: Stanford v Fresno State
  • Chik-Fil-A Bowl:  South Carolina v  Auburn

One final bit of component rankings – for those interested in some of the details of the experiment.  Offense/Defense is based on yards/pts/turnovers and related to the opponent.  So a team which gets 300 yards against a great defense (or great against others) gets more credit than one that gets 300 yards against an opponent who usually engages in track meets. Top 20 offenses

  1. Baylor
  2. Florida State
  3. Oregon
  4. Arizona State
  5. Texas A&M
  6. Ohio State
  7. Indiana
  8. Alabama
  9. Clemson
  10. Missouri
  11. Houston
  12. LSU
  13. UCF
  14. Louisville
  15. Miami-FL
  16. Wisconsin
  17. Oklahoma State
  18. Georgia
  19. Northern Illinois
  20. Marshall

Top 20 defenses

  1. Alabama
  2. Virginia Tech
  3. Florida
  4. Florida State
  5. Stanford
  6. Michigan
  7. USC
  8. Louisville
  9. Wisconsin
  10. BYU
  11. Iowa
  12. Oregon
  13. Washington
  14. Missouri
  15. UCLA
  16. North Texas
  17. Utah State
  18. Ohio State
  19. Memphis
  20. TCU

Top 20 Toughest Schedules

  1. Georgia
  2. Purdue
  3. Virginia
  4. Utah
  5. Stanford
  6. North Carolina
  7. Tennessee
  8. Ole Miss
  9. Arizona State
  10. Indiana
  11. Florida
  12. Virginia Tech
  13. BYU
  14. Washington
  15. Mississippi State
  16. California
  17. Memphis
  18. Florida State
  19. Pittsburgh
  20. Arkansas

Conferences Ratings

  1. Pac 12 (9.82)
  2. SEC (9.49)
  3. Big 12 (8.95)
  4. Big Ten (8.90)
  5. ACC (8,79)
  6. Sun Belt (7.38)
  7. American (6.98)
  8. Independent (6.86)
  9. MAC (6.53)
  10. Mountain West (6.44)
  11. Conference USA (6.25)

2013 NFL Rankings Experiment: Through Week 7

Needless to say, the Saints-Patriots game defined the week in my heart – but Saints have little reason to weep.  They are good.  As to the rest?  Here we go – same logic as the college one, but with NFL teams … the college methodology is here:

  1. (1) Denver Broncos (6-1)
  2. (2) Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)
  3. (4) Seattle Seahawks (6-1)
  4. (3) New Orleans Saints (5-1)
  5. (6) San Francisco 49ers (5-2)
  6. (7) Green Bay Packers (4-2)
  7. (8) Indianapolis Colts (5-2)
  8. (5) New England Patriots (5-2)
  9. (11) Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
  10. (16) Dallas Cowboys (4-3)
  11. (9) Detroit Lions (4-3)
  12. (10) Chicago Bears (4-3)
  13. (18) San Diego Chargers (4-3)
  14. (12) Miami Dolphins (3-3)
  15. (13) Tennessee Titans (3-4)
  16. (22) New York Jets (4-3)
  17. (14) Arizona Cardinals (3-4)
  18. (24) Carolina Panthers (3-3)
  19. (23) Buffalo Bills (3-4)
  20. (15) Baltimore Ravens (3-4)
  21. (19) Cleveland Browns (3-4)
  22. (17) Philadelphia Eagles (3-4)
  23. (20) Saint Louis Rams (3-4)
  24. (21) Houston Texans (2-5)
  25. (27) Washington Redskins (2-4)
  26. (25) Oakland Raiders (2-4)
  27. (28) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4)
  28. (26) Atlanta Falcons (2-4)
  29. (29) Minnesota Vikings (1-5)
  30. (32) New York Giants (1-6)
  31. (30) Tampa Bay Bucs (0-6)
  32. (31) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-7)

Top 10 Offenses

  1. Broncos
  2. Packers
  3. Bears
  4. Colts
  5. Seahawks
  6. Saints
  7. Falcons
  8. 49ers
  9. Cowboys
  10. Lions

(bottom 5: Raiders, Steelers, Giants, Bucs, Jaguars)

Top 10 Defenses

  1. Chiefs
  2. Panthers
  3. Seahawks
  4. Saints
  5. Colts
  6. Bengals
  7. 49ers
  8. Cowboys
  9. Raiders
  10. Patriots

(bottom 5: Rams, Vikings, Jaguars, Falcons, Broncos)

2013 NFL Rankings Experiment: Through Week 6

Needless to say, the Saints-Patriots game defined the week in my heart – but Saints have little reason to weep.  They are good.  As to the rest?  Here we go – same logic as the college one, but with NFL teams … the college methodology is here:

  1. (1) Denver Broncos (6-0)
  2. (3) Kansas City Chiefs (6-0)
  3. (2) New Orleans Saints (5-1)
  4. (4) Seattle Seahawks (5-1)
  5. (6) New England Patriots (5-1)
  6. (9) San Francisco 49ers (4-2)
  7. (16) Green Bay Packers (3-2)
  8. (5) Indianapolis Colts (4-2)
  9. (12) Detroit Lions (4-2)
  10. (10) Chicago Bears (4-2)
  11. (14) Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)
  12. (7) Miami Dolphins (3-2)
  13. (13) Tennessee Titans (3-3)
  14. (15) Arizona Cardinals (3-3)
  15. (8) Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
  16. (21) Dallas Cowboys (3-3)
  17. (20) Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)
  18. (22) San Diego Chargers (3-3)
  19. (11) Cleveland Browns (3-3)
  20. (24) Saint Louis Rams (3-3)
  21. (18) Houston Texans (2-4)
  22. (17) New York Jets (3-3)
  23. (19) Buffalo Bills (2-4)
  24. (28) Carolina Panthers (2-3)
  25. (23) Oakland Raiders (2-4)
  26. (25) Atlanta Falcons (1-4)
  27. (26) Washington Redskins (1-4)
  28. (32) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)
  29. (27) Minnesota Vikings (1-4)
  30. (29) Tampa Bay Bucs (0-5)
  31. (30) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6)
  32. (31) New York Giants (0-6)

Top 10 Offenses

  1. Broncos
  2. Saints
  3. Packers
  4. Cowboys
  5. Eagles
  6. Seahawks
  7. Colts
  8. Falcons
  9. Bills
  10. Bears

(the bottom 5: Steelers, Jets, Giants, Jaguars, Bucs)

Top 10 Defenses

  1. Chiefs
  2. Panthers
  3. Seahawks
  4. Patriots
  5. Bengals
  6. Saints
  7. Colts
  8. 49ers
  9. Ravens
  10. Cardinals

(bottom 5: Giants, Jaguars, Broncos, Falcons, Eagles)

2013 NFL Rankings Experiment: Through Week 5

Cut to the chase – same logic as the college one, but with NFL teams … the college methodology is here:

  1. Denver Broncos (5-0)
  2. New Orleans Saints (5-0)
  3. Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)
  4. Seattle Seahawks (4-1)
  5. Indianapolis Colts (4-1)
  6. New England Patriots (4-1)
  7. Miami Dolphins (3-2)
  8. Baltimore Ravens (3-2)
  9. San Francisco 49ers (3-2)
  10. Chicago Bears (3-2)
  11. Cleveland Browns (3-2)
  12. Detroit Lions (3-2)
  13. Tennessee Titans (3-2)
  14. Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)
  15. Arizona Cardinals (3-2)
  16. Green Bay Packers (2-2)
  17. New York Jets (3-2)
  18. Houston Texans (2-3)
  19. Buffalo Bills (2-3)
  20. Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)
  21. Dallas Cowboys (2-3)
  22. San Diego Chargers (2-3)
  23. Oakland Raiders (2-3)
  24. Saint Louis Rams (2-3)
  25. Atlanta Falcons (1-4)
  26. Washington Redskins (1-3)
  27. Minnesota Vikings (1-3)
  28. Carolina Panthers (1-3)
  29. Tampa Bay Bucs (0-4)
  30. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5)
  31. New York Giants (0-5)
  32. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4)

Top 10 Offenses

  1. Broncos
  2. Packers
  3. Colts
  4. Saints
  5. Seahawks
  6. Bears
  7. Falcons
  8. Cowboys
  9. Bears
  10. Vikings

(the bottom 5: Panthers, Steelers, Bucs, Jaguars, Giants)

Top 10 Defenses

  1. Chiefs
  2. Saints
  3. Seahawks
  4. Panthers
  5. 49ers
  6. Bengals
  7. Patriots
  8. Colts
  9. Raiders
  10. Browns

(bottom 5: Broncos, Giants, Falcons, Rams, Jaguars)

2013 College Basketball – 3/16/2013

You know the drill by now … automatic berths piling up, let’s see how this goes.  Lots of automatic bids now.  For what it’s worth – I cannot imagine New Mexico as the #1 overall seed in real life, but they have had the best numbers all season.  And if you think the Mountain West has had a great year then you gotta live it.

NCAA FIELD

ARLINGTON, TX

  • Austin: (1) New Mexico v (16) Southern/North Carolina A&T, (8) Minnesota v (9) NC State
  • San Jose: (4) Syracuse v (13) Bucknell, (5) VCU v (12) Southern Miss
  • Dayton: (2) Indiana v (15) Northwestern State, (7) UNLV v Ole Miss
  • Philadelphia: (3) Georgetown v (14) Pacific, (6) North Carolina v (11) Oklahoma

WASHINGTON, DC

  • Philadelphia: (1) Duke v (16) Long Island/Liberty, (8) Saint Mary’s v (9) Notre Dame
  • Salt Lake City: (4) Saint Louis v (13) New Mexico State, (5) Colorado State v (12) Iowa State
  • Kansas City: (2) Kansas v (15) Montana, (7) Wisconsin v (10) Pittsburgh
  • Kansas City: (3) Memphis v (14) South Dakota State, (6) UCLA v (11) Temple

INDIANAPOLIS, IN

  • Lexington: (1) Louisville v (16) James Madison, (8) Butler v (9) Missouri
  • Salt Lake City: (4) Creighton v (13) Valparaiso, (5) Arizona v (12) Illinois/Boise State
  • Austin: (2) Florida v (15) FL Gulf Coast, (7) MTSU v (10) Colorado
  • Dayton: (3) Ohio State v (14) Harvard, (6) Oklahoma State v (11) Akron

LOS ANGELES, CA

  • San Jose: (1) Gonzaga v (16) Western Kentucky, (8) Wichita State v (9) Oregon
  • Auburn Hills: (4) Michigan v (13) Davidson, (5) Marquette v (12) Virginia
  • Lexington: (2) Miami-FL v (15) Albany, (7) Belmont v (10) San Diego State
  • Auburn Hills: (3) Michigan State v (14) Iona, (6) Kansas State v (11) Cincinnati/LaSalle

THE LITTLE DANCE (YOUR NIT FIELD – AUTO BIDS IN CAPS)

  • (1) California v (32) CHARLESTON SOUTHERN
  • (16) Stanford v (17) Baylor
  • (8) Denver v (25) Arkansas
  • (9) Maryland v (24) Eastern Kentucky
  • (4) Massachusetts v (29) NORTHEASTERN
  • (13) Ohio v (20) Xavier
  • (5) Kentucky v (28) LONG BEACH STATE
  • (12) LSU v (21) Charlotte
  • (2) Villanova v (31) NORFOLK STATE
  • (15) Providence v (18) STEPHEN F AUSTIN
  • (7) Alabama v (26) ROBERT MORRIS
  • (10) STONY BROOK v (23) North Dakota State
  • (3) LOUISIANA TECH v (30) MERCER
  • (14) BYU v (19) Detroit
  • (6) Tennessee v (27) NIAGARA
  • (11) Iowa v (22) Saint Joseph’s

 

2013 College Basketball – 3/15/2013

You know the drill by now … automatic berths piling up, let’s see how this goes.  No new berths yesterday, but with Long Beach State going down, we get another team on the NIT pile.  Also, Duke lost – although they are not hurt too much … Kentucky on the other hand, let’s move on.

NCAA FIELD

WASHINGTON, DC

  • Philadelphia: (1) Duke v (16) James Madison, (8) Minnesota v (9) Wichita State
  • Salt Lake City: (4) Creighton v (13) Bucknell, (5) Saint Louis v (12) Akron
  • Austin: (2) Florida v (15) Pacific, (7) Colorado State v (10) Oklahoma
  • Dayton: (3) Ohio State v (14) Harvard, (6) Butler v (11) Oregon

LOS ANGELES, CA

  • San Jose: (1) Gonzaga v (16) Long Island/Liberty, (8) NC State v (9) Colorado
  • Kansas City: (4) Memphis v (13) Stephen F Austin, (5) Marquette v (12) Illinois/Boise State
  • Dayton: (2) Indiana v (15) Montana, (7) Belmont v (10) Southern Miss
  • Auburn Hills: (3) Georgetown v (14) South Dakota State, (6) UNLV v (11) Iowa State

ARLINGTON, TX

  • Austin: (1) New Mexico v (16) Western Kentucky, (8) Wisconsin v (9) Pittsburgh
  • San Jose: (4) UCLA v (13) Valparaiso, (5) Kansas State v (12) LaSalle/Cincinnati
  • Lexington: (2) Miami-FL v (15) Vermont, (7) VCU v (10) Notre Dame
  • Auburn Hills: (3) Michigan State v (14) Iona, (6) Oklahoma State v (11) Ole Miss

INDIANAPOLIS, IN

  • Lexington: (1) Louisville v (16) Southern/North Carolina A&T, (8) Saint Mary’s v (9) Missouri
  • Salt Lake City: (4) Michigan v (13) Davidson, (5) Arizona v (12) Virginia
  • Kansas City: (2) Kansas v (15) FL Gulf Coast, (7) North Carolina v (10) San Diego State
  • Philadelphia: (3) Syracuse v (14) New Mexico State, (6) Middle Tennessee v (11) Temple

THE LITTLE DANCE (YOUR NIT FIELD – AUTO BIDS IN CAPS)

  • (1) California v (32) CHARLESTON SOUTHERN
  • (16) Baylor v (17) Providence
  • (8) Alabama v (25) Arizona State
  • (9) Denver v (24) Arkansas
  • (4) Louisiana Tech v (29) NORTHEASTERN
  • (13) LSU v (20) Saint Joseph’s
  • (5) Villanova v (28) LONG BEACH STATE
  • (12) Ohio v (21) North Dakota State
  • (2) Massachusetts v (31) NORFOLK STATE
  • (15) Stanford v (18) Detroit
  • (7) Maryland v (26) ROBERT MORRIS
  • (10) Iowa v (23) Eastern Kentucky
  • (3) Kentucky v (30) MERCER
  • (14) BYU v (19) Xavier
  • (6) Tennessee v (27) NIAGARA
  • (11) Stony Brook v (22) Charlotte