2014 College Football – Week 8 – Cannibalism

It is very possible that the four best teams in the country reside in the two states west of Georgia.  Certainly Alabama’s evisceration of Texas A&M (yes, I know – they aren’t that good) improved their quality measures a lot.  In terms offense and defense, Alabama has been very strong.  That said, they are behind in the conference race, and that has to take some precedent.  Now, the selection committee’s criteria is super-fuzzy, but I have to think that conference supremacy matters.  As such, the Mississippi schools still lead the charge here.

Of course, this is obvious stuff.  What is interesting though is that, while the SEC West and the Big XII have taken turns beating themselves up, (the Pac-12 too) the ACC and Big Ten suddenly have some opportunities to sneak into one of the Final Four spots.  In fact, once Florida State dispatched Notre Dame in the clear Game of the Year to date, the Big Ten suddenly had something to brag about.

As far as the one-man playoff selection committee?

  • The final 4: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Michigan State and Florida State.  The two SEC teams are obvious here.  As for why the #5 and #10 teams on the list get the nod?  The committee is expected to weigh conference supremacy some, so I will too.  That is certainly part of it.  But it is also worth looking at the ranking scores, not just the ordinal ranks.  Once we get out of the top 4, you basically have 10 teams separate by 5 percent.  This is not a large gap, and with the limited datasets you have to make some leaps.  I take Michigan State as the Big Ten leader and highest rated non SEC team, and Florida State by virtue of leading its conference, still being unbeaten and a head to head result over #9.  If you wanted to choose TCU or Baylor or even Ohio State, you would not be crazy.
  • Other automatic qualifiers:  TCU from the Big 12, USC from the Pac 12, Marshall from “everybody else”.  With Florida State in the national semifinals, the Orange Bowl by fiat takes Clemson, the next highest ranked ACC team.  The opponent is the highest rated SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame opponent so hooray for Alabama.
  • This leaves just three more spots.  Here Auburns get in with monstrous strength ratings.  Baylor and Georgia get the other two slots.  This leaves us with a Cotton Bowl which might take 5 hours to play.
  • BOWL PROJECTIONS.
    • Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss v Florida State
    • Rose Bowl: Mississippi State v Michigan State
    • Orange Bowl: Clemson v Alabama
    • Cotton Bowl: Baylor v Auburn  
    • Peach Bowl: Georgia v Marshall
    • Fiesta Bowl: TCU v USC

Weekly Power Rankings

Rank Team W L RPI Scale DSR Scale TotalRank
1 Alabama 6 1 0.883 (5) 1 (1) 0.941
2 Ole Miss 7 0 0.984 (2) 0.89 (3) 0.937
3 Mississippi State 6 0 1 (1) 0.832 (4) 0.916
4 Auburn 5 1 0.923 (3) 0.891 (2) 0.907
5 Michigan State 6 1 0.769 (12) 0.79 (8) 0.779
6 TCU 5 1 0.776 (11) 0.776 (10) 0.776
7 Georgia 6 1 0.815 (7) 0.736 (13) 0.776
8 Baylor 6 1 0.732 (17) 0.819 (5) 0.775
9 Notre Dame 6 1 0.843 (6) 0.687 (16) 0.765
10 Florida State 7 0 0.916 (4) 0.585 (34) 0.75
11 LSU 6 2 0.695 (25) 0.79 (7) 0.743
12 Ohio State 5 1 0.685 (29) 0.799 (6) 0.742
13 Clemson 5 2 0.736 (16) 0.742 (11) 0.739
14 Marshall 7 0 0.777 (9) 0.683 (18) 0.73
15 Nebraska 6 1 0.768 (13) 0.685 (17) 0.726
16 West Virginia 5 2 0.643 (31) 0.784 (9) 0.714
17 Louisville 6 2 0.692 (28) 0.726 (14) 0.709
18 Oregon 6 1 0.776 (10) 0.631 (27) 0.704
19 Oklahoma 5 2 0.696 (24) 0.661 (21) 0.679
20 USC 5 2 0.694 (26) 0.655 (22) 0.674
21 Boise State 5 2 0.693 (27) 0.654 (23) 0.674
22 Arizona State 5 1 0.716 (18) 0.591 (31) 0.653
23 UCLA 5 2 0.713 (20) 0.589 (32) 0.651
24 Kansas State 5 1 0.716 (19) 0.581 (35) 0.648
25 Arizona 5 1 0.749 (15) 0.533 (44) 0.641
26 Colorado State 6 1 0.757 (14) 0.521 (46) 0.639
27 Texas A&M 5 3 0.678 (30) 0.586 (33) 0.632
28 Minnesota 6 1 0.79 (8) 0.434 (65) 0.612
29 Duke 6 1 0.7 (23) 0.505 (49) 0.603
30 East Carolina 5 1 0.7 (22) 0.503 (52) 0.602
31 Virginia Tech 4 3 0.511 (52) 0.669 (19) 0.59
32 Wisconsin 4 2 0.514 (51) 0.664 (20) 0.589
33 Arkansas 3 4 0.439 (68) 0.738 (12) 0.589
34 Pittsburgh 4 3 0.462 (63) 0.71 (15) 0.586
35 Penn State 4 2 0.566 (40) 0.606 (29) 0.586
36 Miami-FL 4 3 0.539 (46) 0.626 (28) 0.583
37 Florida 3 3 0.51 (54) 0.653 (24) 0.582
38 Iowa 5 2 0.555 (43) 0.6 (30) 0.578
39 Stanford 4 3 0.501 (56) 0.639 (25) 0.57
40 Georgia Tech 5 2 0.617 (34) 0.512 (47) 0.565
41 Arkansas State 4 2 0.563 (41) 0.546 (40) 0.554
42 Boston College 4 3 0.465 (62) 0.634 (26) 0.549
43 Maryland 5 2 0.605 (36) 0.482 (57) 0.543
44 Utah 5 1 0.704 (21) 0.377 (87) 0.54
45 Kentucky 5 2 0.625 (32) 0.456 (61) 0.54
46 Memphis 3 3 0.51 (55) 0.569 (36) 0.539
47 Rutgers 5 2 0.591 (37) 0.457 (60) 0.524
48 Georgia Southern 5 2 0.542 (45) 0.504 (50) 0.523
49 Virginia 4 3 0.461 (64) 0.557 (38) 0.509
50 Missouri 5 2 0.624 (33) 0.389 (80) 0.507
51 South Carolina 4 3 0.499 (57) 0.511 (48) 0.505
52 BYU 4 3 0.472 (61) 0.53 (45) 0.501
53 Oklahoma State 5 2 0.611 (35) 0.389 (81) 0.5
54 Oregon State 4 2 0.536 (47) 0.461 (59) 0.498
55 Air Force 5 2 0.581 (38) 0.406 (73) 0.494
56 Nevada 4 3 0.534 (48) 0.449 (62) 0.492
57 MTSU 5 3 0.574 (39) 0.408 (72) 0.491
58 Tennessee 3 4 0.437 (69) 0.54 (43) 0.489
59 UCF 4 2 0.557 (42) 0.412 (71) 0.485
60 UAB 4 3 0.417 (76) 0.544 (42) 0.48
61 NC State 4 4 0.446 (65) 0.501 (53) 0.473
62 Houston 4 3 0.379 (82) 0.559 (37) 0.469
63 California 4 3 0.516 (50) 0.421 (67) 0.468
64 Louisiana Tech 4 3 0.511 (53) 0.42 (68) 0.465
65 Washington 5 2 0.553 (44) 0.376 (88) 0.465
66 South Alabama 4 2 0.476 (59) 0.446 (63) 0.461
67 Northwestern 3 4 0.371 (84) 0.549 (39) 0.46
68 San Jose State 3 3 0.474 (60) 0.437 (64) 0.456
69 Utah State 4 3 0.52 (49) 0.391 (77) 0.456
70 North Carolina 3 4 0.402 (78) 0.493 (54) 0.448
71 Michigan 3 4 0.348 (91) 0.546 (41) 0.447
72 Northern Illinois 5 2 0.478 (58) 0.401 (76) 0.439
73 Akron 4 3 0.426 (72) 0.432 (66) 0.429
74 Texas 3 4 0.353 (90) 0.504 (51) 0.429
75 Rice 3 3 0.443 (67) 0.402 (75) 0.423
76 LA-Lafayette 3 3 0.422 (74) 0.417 (69) 0.42
77 Western Michigan 4 3 0.443 (66) 0.39 (79) 0.417
78 Temple 4 2 0.425 (73) 0.404 (74) 0.414
79 Syracuse 3 4 0.406 (77) 0.416 (70) 0.411
80 Navy 3 4 0.329 (94) 0.492 (55) 0.411
81 Cincinnati 3 3 0.421 (75) 0.391 (78) 0.406
82 Washington State 2 5 0.303 (97) 0.491 (56) 0.397
83 San Diego State 4 3 0.429 (70) 0.343 (92) 0.386
84 Colorado 2 5 0.271 (101) 0.477 (58) 0.374
85 Texas Tech 3 4 0.366 (86) 0.379 (86) 0.373
86 Central Michigan 4 4 0.336 (92) 0.388 (82) 0.362
87 Toledo 4 3 0.388 (80) 0.334 (94) 0.361
88 Indiana 3 4 0.353 (89) 0.352 (91) 0.353
89 Fresno State 3 5 0.361 (88) 0.34 (93) 0.351
90 Bowling Green 5 3 0.429 (71) 0.272 (107) 0.35
91 LA-Monroe 3 3 0.379 (81) 0.315 (99) 0.347
92 Western Kentucky 2 4 0.301 (98) 0.382 (85) 0.341
93 Iowa State 2 5 0.272 (100) 0.384 (84) 0.328
94 Illinois 3 4 0.296 (99) 0.358 (90) 0.327
95 Purdue 3 5 0.317 (96) 0.331 (95) 0.324
96 Ohio 4 4 0.371 (83) 0.248 (111) 0.31
97 FIU 3 5 0.228 (105) 0.386 (83) 0.307
98 Southern Miss 3 4 0.39 (79) 0.218 (117) 0.304
99 UTEP 3 3 0.369 (85) 0.238 (113) 0.303
100 Old Dominion 3 4 0.33 (93) 0.276 (105) 0.303
101 Florida Atlantic 3 4 0.362 (87) 0.234 (115) 0.298
102 Texas State 3 3 0.247 (104) 0.326 (96) 0.287
103 UTSA 2 5 0.26 (103) 0.306 (101) 0.283
104 Wyoming 3 4 0.328 (95) 0.2 (120) 0.264
105 South Florida 3 4 0.262 (102) 0.235 (114) 0.249
106 Appalachian State 2 5 0.153 (114) 0.315 (98) 0.234
107 Tulane 2 5 0.168 (111) 0.297 (102) 0.232
108 Buffalo 3 4 0.153 (113) 0.307 (100) 0.23
109 New Mexico 2 5 0.195 (108) 0.255 (108) 0.225
110 Kansas 2 5 0.193 (109) 0.239 (112) 0.216
111 Hawaii 2 5 0.141 (115) 0.278 (104) 0.209
112 Ball State 2 5 0.115 (117) 0.273 (106) 0.194
113 Massachusetts 2 6 0.125 (116) 0.252 (110) 0.188
114 Idaho 1 6 0 (129) 0.373 (89) 0.187
115 UNLV 2 5 0.182 (110) 0.165 (121) 0.174
116 Tulsa 1 6 0.041 (122) 0.29 (103) 0.165
117 Miami-OH 1 7 0.014 (127) 0.316 (97) 0.165
118 New Mexico State 2 6 0.103 (120) 0.222 (116) 0.163
119 Wake Forest 2 5 0.205 (107) 0.111 (125) 0.158
120 Vanderbilt 2 5 0.206 (106) 0.094 (126) 0.15
121 Georgia State 1 6 0.014 (126) 0.252 (109) 0.133
122 North Texas 2 5 0.107 (119) 0.153 (123) 0.13
123 Kent State 1 6 0.036 (124) 0.212 (118) 0.124
124 Connecticut 1 5 0.03 (125) 0.206 (119) 0.118
125 Army 2 5 0.072 (121) 0.154 (122) 0.113
126 Eastern Michigan 2 5 0.168 (112) 0.01 (128) 0.089
127 Troy 1 6 0.005 (128) 0.125 (124) 0.065
128 Non FBS 8 92 0.108 (118) 0.013 (127) 0.06
129 SMU 0 6 0.04 (123) 0 (129) 0.02

Top 5 offenses by Net DSR:
1. Oregon
2. Georgia Tech
3. Auburn
4. Ohio State
5. Alabama

Top 5 defenses by Net DSR
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Louisville
4. Virginia Tech
5. Stanford

2014 College Football – Week 7 – The Number of Teams is Not the Only Thing Messy About the Big XII

Another fun week passes with the Mississippi teams flexing their muscles in this SEC West gauntlet.  But much was talked about there – let’s look at the 2nd best conference in the country, the ten team Big XII.  After their big win against Oklahoma, one figured TCU – who was in our Final Four last week – would have an interesting time against Baylor in the back to back.  Indeed, it was interesting, as TCU allowed 28 points in the 4th to let it slip away.  Baylor, who had been strong against a soft slate gets one of the more significant bumps of the week.  This week more mayhem in the conference is on slate, with Kansas State-Oklahoma and TCU-Oklahoma State serving as de facto conference elimination games while Baylor goes to West Virginia for a very dangerous roadie (West Virginia is 4-2, but has played a lot better than that).

As far as the one-man playoff selection committee?

  • The final 4: Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Baylor and Notre Dame.  Last week we noted why more than 2 teams from a conference seems unlikely.  Given that, Baylor is a natural for the 3rd team.  The final spot comes down to Notre Dame v Michigan State v Florida State. Notre Dame has solidly the best resume of the three, although their game at Florida State this week will settle much.
  • Other automatic qualifiers:  Florida State from the ACC, Michigan State from the Big Ten, USC from the Pac 12 (highest ranked of seven one-loss teams), Marshall represents everybody else. This provides eight of the 12 spots.  The other four?  Going down the list, Alabama, Auburn, TCU, Georgia take the other slots.  I suspect a team like Oregon will rise higher as the season goes on, but we’re not there yet.
  • BOWL PROJECTIONS.
    • Sugar Bowl: Mississippi State v Notre Dame
    • Rose Bowl: Ole Miss v Baylor
    • Orange Bowl: Florida State v Auburn 
    • Cotton Bowl: Alabama v TCU 
    • Peach Bowl: Georgia v Marshall
    • Fiesta Bowl: Michigan State v USC

Weekly Power Rankings

Rank Team W L RPI Scale DSR Scale TotalRank
1 Mississippi State 6 0 1 (1) 0.937 (5) 0.969
2 Ole Miss 6 0 0.981 (2) 0.956 (4) 0.969
3 Auburn 5 1 0.917 (4) 1 (1) 0.959
4 Alabama 5 1 0.882 (6) 0.981 (3) 0.932
5 Baylor 6 0 0.85 (7) 0.981 (2) 0.915
6 Notre Dame 6 0 0.937 (3) 0.77 (18) 0.854
7 Georgia 5 1 0.825 (9) 0.864 (6) 0.844
8 TCU 4 1 0.797 (10) 0.818 (11) 0.808
9 Michigan State 5 1 0.79 (14) 0.794 (14) 0.792
10 Florida State 6 0 0.91 (5) 0.664 (34) 0.787
11 Marshall 6 0 0.797 (11) 0.771 (17) 0.784
12 LSU 5 2 0.721 (25) 0.84 (7) 0.78
13 Oklahoma 5 1 0.85 (8) 0.71 (27) 0.78
14 Louisville 5 2 0.695 (29) 0.837 (8) 0.766
15 Texas A&M 5 2 0.763 (18) 0.759 (21) 0.761
16 Clemson 4 2 0.691 (30) 0.826 (10) 0.759
17 USC 4 2 0.74 (21) 0.768 (19) 0.754
18 Nebraska 5 1 0.764 (17) 0.736 (23) 0.75
19 Ohio State 4 1 0.665 (36) 0.83 (9) 0.748
20 Oregon 5 1 0.795 (12) 0.648 (35) 0.722
21 West Virginia 4 2 0.629 (41) 0.788 (15) 0.708
22 Stanford 4 2 0.626 (42) 0.775 (16) 0.701
23 Florida 3 2 0.674 (35) 0.723 (25) 0.698
24 Boise State 4 2 0.695 (28) 0.676 (30) 0.686
25 Arizona 5 1 0.785 (15) 0.581 (48) 0.683
26 Iowa 5 1 0.651 (37) 0.711 (26) 0.681
27 UCLA 4 2 0.69 (31) 0.667 (32) 0.678
28 Virginia Tech 4 2 0.587 (52) 0.767 (20) 0.677
29 Arkansas 3 3 0.543 (60) 0.81 (13) 0.676
30 Kansas State 4 1 0.678 (34) 0.669 (31) 0.674
31 Georgia Tech 5 1 0.733 (24) 0.608 (42) 0.67
32 Arizona State 4 1 0.733 (23) 0.598 (45) 0.666
33 Colorado State 5 1 0.766 (16) 0.56 (50) 0.663
34 Penn State 4 2 0.625 (43) 0.685 (29) 0.655
35 Boston College 4 2 0.568 (56) 0.741 (22) 0.655
36 Duke 5 1 0.744 (20) 0.554 (51) 0.649
37 Wisconsin 4 2 0.572 (55) 0.725 (24) 0.649
38 Miami-FL 4 3 0.602 (48) 0.693 (28) 0.647
39 Pittsburgh 3 3 0.469 (74) 0.812 (12) 0.641
40 East Carolina 5 1 0.749 (19) 0.528 (57) 0.639
41 Minnesota 5 1 0.791 (13) 0.482 (66) 0.637
42 Kentucky 5 1 0.735 (22) 0.529 (56) 0.632
43 Oregon State 4 1 0.721 (26) 0.516 (60) 0.618
44 Arkansas State 4 2 0.62 (45) 0.614 (40) 0.617
45 Rutgers 5 1 0.681 (33) 0.53 (55) 0.605
46 BYU 4 2 0.603 (47) 0.608 (43) 0.605
47 Oklahoma State 5 1 0.714 (27) 0.475 (72) 0.595
48 South Carolina 3 3 0.554 (57) 0.633 (36) 0.593
49 Tennessee 3 3 0.52 (66) 0.666 (33) 0.593
50 UAB 4 2 0.53 (64) 0.618 (38) 0.574
51 Virginia 4 2 0.54 (61) 0.603 (44) 0.571
52 California 4 2 0.644 (39) 0.495 (63) 0.57
53 Georgia Southern 5 2 0.585 (53) 0.548 (52) 0.566
54 Memphis 3 3 0.538 (62) 0.592 (46) 0.565
55 Washington 5 1 0.65 (38) 0.465 (73) 0.558
56 Northwestern 3 3 0.483 (72) 0.614 (39) 0.549
57 Utah State 4 2 0.644 (40) 0.451 (78) 0.548
58 Missouri 4 2 0.604 (46) 0.481 (69) 0.543
59 Temple 4 1 0.554 (59) 0.527 (58) 0.54
60 Utah 4 1 0.685 (32) 0.393 (88) 0.539
61 Maryland 4 2 0.592 (50) 0.481 (68) 0.537
62 Akron 4 2 0.554 (58) 0.514 (61) 0.534
63 UCF 3 2 0.584 (54) 0.458 (75) 0.521
64 NC State 4 3 0.519 (67) 0.517 (59) 0.518
65 Air Force 4 2 0.624 (44) 0.409 (86) 0.516
66 Texas 2 4 0.404 (86) 0.623 (37) 0.514
67 Michigan 3 4 0.398 (88) 0.609 (41) 0.504
68 MTSU 4 3 0.588 (51) 0.418 (83) 0.503
69 Navy 3 4 0.41 (83) 0.586 (47) 0.498
70 Louisiana Tech 3 3 0.531 (63) 0.454 (77) 0.492
71 Rice 3 3 0.524 (65) 0.457 (76) 0.49
72 South Alabama 3 2 0.478 (73) 0.483 (65) 0.481
73 Nevada 3 3 0.488 (71) 0.461 (74) 0.475
74 Northern Illinois 4 2 0.514 (68) 0.43 (80) 0.472
75 Washington State 2 5 0.371 (98) 0.569 (49) 0.47
76 Indiana 3 3 0.454 (77) 0.482 (67) 0.468
77 Western Kentucky 2 3 0.455 (75) 0.477 (70) 0.466
78 North Carolina 2 4 0.379 (95) 0.533 (54) 0.456
79 Central Michigan 4 3 0.496 (69) 0.415 (84) 0.455
80 Houston 3 3 0.392 (91) 0.507 (62) 0.449
81 Syracuse 2 4 0.399 (87) 0.493 (64) 0.446
82 Bowling Green 5 2 0.592 (49) 0.294 (106) 0.443
83 Colorado 2 4 0.342 (104) 0.54 (53) 0.441
84 Iowa State 2 4 0.384 (93) 0.476 (71) 0.43
85 Texas State 3 2 0.411 (82) 0.44 (79) 0.426
86 Fresno State 3 4 0.423 (81) 0.388 (90) 0.405
87 San Jose State 2 3 0.386 (92) 0.422 (82) 0.404
88 Illinois 3 4 0.392 (90) 0.413 (85) 0.403
89 Texas Tech 2 4 0.375 (96) 0.428 (81) 0.402
90 Western Michigan 3 3 0.405 (85) 0.385 (91) 0.395
91 LA-Monroe 3 3 0.454 (76) 0.331 (98) 0.393
92 Toledo 4 3 0.437 (79) 0.335 (97) 0.386
93 Cincinnati 2 3 0.356 (101) 0.403 (87) 0.38
94 San Diego State 3 3 0.444 (78) 0.309 (100) 0.376
95 Purdue 3 4 0.395 (89) 0.344 (95) 0.37
96 Old Dominion 3 4 0.407 (84) 0.305 (101) 0.356
97 FIU 3 4 0.315 (106) 0.392 (89) 0.353
98 Wyoming 3 3 0.494 (70) 0.211 (115) 0.352
99 UTEP 3 3 0.423 (80) 0.266 (110) 0.345
100 LA-Lafayette 2 3 0.38 (94) 0.302 (102) 0.341
101 UTSA 2 4 0.342 (105) 0.3 (104) 0.321
102 Hawaii 2 4 0.285 (110) 0.353 (94) 0.319
103 Buffalo 3 4 0.26 (113) 0.356 (93) 0.308
104 Tulane 2 4 0.291 (109) 0.318 (99) 0.304
105 Kansas 2 4 0.309 (107) 0.296 (105) 0.302
106 Ohio 3 4 0.368 (99) 0.218 (113) 0.293
107 New Mexico 2 4 0.279 (111) 0.284 (108) 0.282
108 Florida Atlantic 2 4 0.373 (97) 0.187 (120) 0.28
109 Tulsa 1 5 0.173 (119) 0.382 (92) 0.278
110 Southern Miss 2 4 0.361 (100) 0.145 (123) 0.253
111 New Mexico State 2 5 0.226 (116) 0.271 (109) 0.249
112 North Texas 2 4 0.26 (112) 0.204 (118) 0.232
113 Wake Forest 2 4 0.349 (103) 0.106 (126) 0.228
114 South Florida 2 4 0.238 (114) 0.202 (119) 0.22
115 Army 2 4 0.222 (117) 0.208 (116) 0.215
116 Miami-OH 1 6 0.122 (124) 0.301 (103) 0.212
117 Vanderbilt 2 5 0.292 (108) 0.108 (125) 0.2
118 Appalachian State 1 5 0.103 (126) 0.291 (107) 0.197
119 UNLV 2 5 0.233 (115) 0.141 (124) 0.187
120 Massachusetts 1 6 0.161 (122) 0.207 (117) 0.184
121 Eastern Michigan 2 4 0.354 (102) 0.008 (128) 0.181
122 Connecticut 1 5 0.133 (123) 0.211 (114) 0.172
123 Idaho 0 6 0 (129) 0.343 (96) 0.171
124 Georgia State 1 5 0.109 (125) 0.221 (112) 0.165
125 Troy 1 5 0.167 (120) 0.152 (121) 0.16
126 Ball State 1 5 0.053 (127) 0.265 (111) 0.159
127 SMU 0 5 0.167 (121) 0.07 (127) 0.119
128 Non FBS 8 91 0.191 (118) 0 (129) 0.096
129 Kent State 0 6 0.031 (128) 0.148 (122) 0.089

2014 College Football – Week 6 – Letting #50 Glow in being #1

Okay, this was a fun week.  Many unbeaten teams fell, and the projections have been flipped upside down clearly.  However, before we dive into that, wow has Mississippi drawn the short stick in America for so long.  Some of it is well deserved, and some of it is just a result of horrific poverty and desperately bankrupt governance.  It is a long list of things which Mississippi is, if not outright #50, way down there.  (such as this, this and this)  While it is befitting of our noxious jock culture to celebrate the state’s two gigantic football wins as a salve for the other horrors that constitute the actual Mississippi experience – it would be dishonest to not report that I felt good.  Mississippi needed a reason to feel proud, however fleetingly.  College Gameday was in Oxford (even though Desmond Howard’s presence in the same Southern Dandy getup as the others was a notable error in “vintage authenticity”) and even Katy Perry made an appearance despite little knowledge of college or football (which gives her a lot in common with many of the TV commentators, but never mind).  The Lazy Magnolia deserved a shout.

As far as the one-man playoff selection committee?

  • The final 4: Auburn, Ole Miss, Notre Dame and TCU.  Mississippi State is higher than the other two, by a solid margin in fact.  However, it is hard to imagine all three of these teams getting to the final four – especially with Ole Miss and Mississippi State settling its differences in the future.  In any case, while the committee will have some freedom to select teams, I actually think selecting more than 2 teams from a conference (especially with qualified unbeatens out there) seems like a stretch.
  • Other automatic qualifiers:  Florida State from the ACC, Michigan State from the Big Ten, Arizona from the Pac 12, Marshall represents everybody else. This provides eight of the 12 spots.  The other four?  Going down the list, Alabama, Mississippi State, Oklahoma and Baylor provide some solid balance here.  Yeah the SEC and Big 12 are hogging the spots – but that’s what happens when every top Pac-12 team bit the dust last week.
  • BOWL PROJECTIONS.  Note we get a particularly juicy Cotton Bowl.  Nebraska in this projection goes to the Fiesta Bowl with its longtime Big XII old affiliation.  One expects Notre Dame to be able to carry the Atlanta game more.
    • Sugar Bowl: Auburn v TCU
    • Rose Bowl: Ole Miss v Notre Dame
    • Orange Bowl: Florida State v Alabama 
    • Cotton Bowl: Mississippi State v Oklahoma 
    • Peach Bowl: Michigan State v Marshall
    • Fiesta Bowl: Arizona v Baylor

Weekly Power Rankings

Rank Team W L RPI Scale DSR Scale TotalRank
1 Auburn 5 0 0.999 (2) 0.964 (2) 0.981
2 Ole Miss 5 0 1 (1) 0.92 (3) 0.96
3 Alabama 4 1 0.862 (10) 1 (1) 0.931
4 Mississippi State 5 0 0.941 (3) 0.866 (4) 0.904
5 Notre Dame 5 0 0.933 (4) 0.797 (9) 0.865
6 TCU 4 0 0.925 (6) 0.755 (12) 0.84
7 Oklahoma 4 1 0.855 (11) 0.813 (6) 0.834
8 Baylor 5 0 0.818 (15) 0.847 (5) 0.833
9 Texas A&M 5 1 0.872 (9) 0.691 (24) 0.782
10 Louisville 5 1 0.783 (17) 0.78 (10) 0.782
11 Florida State 5 0 0.915 (7) 0.64 (32) 0.777
12 Michigan State 4 1 0.765 (21) 0.759 (11) 0.762
13 Florida 3 1 0.827 (13) 0.693 (23) 0.76
14 UCLA 4 1 0.847 (12) 0.65 (29) 0.749
15 Marshall 5 0 0.782 (18) 0.706 (20) 0.744
16 Ohio State 4 1 0.728 (28) 0.753 (13) 0.741
17 Arizona 5 0 0.929 (5) 0.552 (49) 0.741
18 Nebraska 5 1 0.789 (16) 0.689 (26) 0.739
19 Georgia Tech 5 0 0.901 (8) 0.569 (45) 0.735
20 LSU 4 2 0.651 (42) 0.807 (7) 0.729
21 Georgia 4 1 0.746 (24) 0.703 (22) 0.725
22 Arkansas 3 2 0.665 (38) 0.75 (15) 0.707
23 Oregon 4 1 0.769 (20) 0.635 (33) 0.702
24 West Virginia 3 2 0.592 (54) 0.805 (8) 0.698
25 Boise State 4 2 0.731 (27) 0.659 (27) 0.695
26 Clemson 3 2 0.631 (47) 0.752 (14) 0.691
27 USC 3 2 0.633 (46) 0.737 (18) 0.685
28 Memphis 3 2 0.751 (22) 0.607 (40) 0.679
29 Arizona State 4 1 0.746 (25) 0.594 (41) 0.67
30 Stanford 3 2 0.59 (56) 0.744 (16) 0.667
31 Minnesota 4 1 0.772 (19) 0.558 (47) 0.665
32 California 4 1 0.826 (14) 0.496 (64) 0.661
33 Penn State 4 1 0.689 (35) 0.626 (34) 0.658
34 Virginia Tech 4 2 0.592 (55) 0.718 (19) 0.655
35 Kansas State 4 1 0.684 (36) 0.621 (36) 0.652
36 East Carolina 4 1 0.751 (23) 0.549 (51) 0.65
37 BYU 4 1 0.664 (40) 0.625 (35) 0.644
38 Colorado State 4 1 0.719 (31) 0.547 (52) 0.633
39 Missouri 4 1 0.715 (32) 0.55 (50) 0.633
40 Miami-FL 3 3 0.57 (59) 0.689 (25) 0.63
41 Iowa 4 1 0.602 (52) 0.644 (31) 0.623
42 Wisconsin 3 2 0.538 (66) 0.703 (21) 0.621
43 Pittsburgh 3 3 0.485 (75) 0.742 (17) 0.613
44 Kentucky 4 1 0.719 (30) 0.508 (60) 0.613
45 Rutgers 5 1 0.701 (34) 0.513 (58) 0.607
46 Virginia 4 2 0.6 (53) 0.593 (42) 0.596
47 NC State 4 2 0.637 (44) 0.546 (53) 0.592
48 Oregon State 4 1 0.677 (37) 0.497 (62) 0.587
49 Northern Illinois 4 1 0.709 (33) 0.463 (76) 0.586
50 Northwestern 3 2 0.558 (63) 0.609 (39) 0.584
51 Air Force 4 1 0.745 (26) 0.42 (86) 0.583
52 South Carolina 3 3 0.549 (64) 0.614 (38) 0.581
53 Georgia Southern 4 2 0.637 (45) 0.525 (55) 0.581
54 Oklahoma State 4 1 0.663 (41) 0.494 (66) 0.579
55 Utah 4 1 0.724 (29) 0.418 (87) 0.571
56 Tennessee 2 3 0.492 (74) 0.65 (30) 0.571
57 Duke 4 1 0.643 (43) 0.482 (69) 0.563
58 Maryland 4 2 0.615 (51) 0.491 (68) 0.553
59 Boston College 3 2 0.451 (82) 0.651 (28) 0.551
60 Arkansas State 3 2 0.573 (57) 0.525 (56) 0.549
61 UAB 3 2 0.528 (67) 0.568 (46) 0.548
62 Akron 3 2 0.571 (58) 0.521 (57) 0.546
63 MTSU 4 2 0.665 (39) 0.421 (85) 0.543
64 Nevada 3 2 0.623 (50) 0.462 (77) 0.542
65 Louisiana Tech 3 3 0.567 (60) 0.477 (70) 0.522
66 Temple 3 1 0.547 (65) 0.495 (65) 0.521
67 Utah State 3 2 0.627 (48) 0.407 (89) 0.517
68 Washington 4 1 0.563 (62) 0.471 (74) 0.517
69 Indiana 3 2 0.524 (69) 0.506 (61) 0.515
70 Texas 2 3 0.455 (81) 0.574 (44) 0.514
71 South Alabama 3 2 0.525 (68) 0.497 (63) 0.511
72 Navy 2 4 0.429 (88) 0.581 (43) 0.505
73 Washington State 2 4 0.431 (86) 0.552 (48) 0.491
74 Syracuse 2 3 0.439 (85) 0.526 (54) 0.482
75 UCF 2 2 0.522 (70) 0.441 (80) 0.481
76 Michigan 2 4 0.337 (104) 0.618 (37) 0.478
77 Rice 2 3 0.478 (76) 0.469 (75) 0.474
78 Western Kentucky 2 3 0.472 (77) 0.471 (73) 0.472
79 Fresno State 3 3 0.501 (72) 0.422 (84) 0.462
80 Wyoming 3 2 0.626 (49) 0.283 (110) 0.455
81 Toledo 4 2 0.509 (71) 0.399 (91) 0.454
82 Bowling Green 4 2 0.564 (61) 0.343 (102) 0.453
83 Cincinnati 2 2 0.44 (84) 0.428 (83) 0.434
84 Texas State 3 2 0.429 (87) 0.439 (82) 0.434
85 San Jose State 2 3 0.416 (91) 0.448 (79) 0.432
86 North Carolina 2 3 0.369 (100) 0.493 (67) 0.431
87 Texas Tech 2 3 0.462 (80) 0.395 (92) 0.428
88 Colorado 2 4 0.341 (103) 0.512 (59) 0.427
89 LA-Monroe 3 2 0.495 (73) 0.334 (103) 0.415
90 Old Dominion 3 3 0.467 (79) 0.349 (99) 0.408
91 Iowa State 1 4 0.336 (106) 0.475 (71) 0.405
92 Illinois 3 3 0.425 (90) 0.382 (94) 0.403
93 Central Michigan 3 3 0.441 (83) 0.361 (97) 0.401
94 Western Michigan 2 3 0.383 (95) 0.406 (90) 0.395
95 FIU 3 3 0.374 (97) 0.409 (88) 0.392
96 LA-Lafayette 2 3 0.409 (93) 0.362 (96) 0.386
97 Purdue 3 3 0.426 (89) 0.334 (104) 0.38
98 Buffalo 3 3 0.305 (112) 0.449 (78) 0.377
99 Houston 2 3 0.243 (114) 0.473 (72) 0.358
100 Ohio 3 3 0.472 (78) 0.232 (118) 0.352
101 New Mexico 2 3 0.373 (99) 0.304 (106) 0.338
102 UTEP 2 3 0.407 (94) 0.269 (113) 0.338
103 Florida Atlantic 2 4 0.413 (92) 0.244 (116) 0.329
104 New Mexico State 2 4 0.307 (111) 0.344 (101) 0.325
105 UTSA 1 4 0.315 (109) 0.333 (105) 0.324
106 Appalachian State 1 4 0.185 (120) 0.441 (81) 0.313
107 San Diego State 2 3 0.326 (107) 0.297 (109) 0.312
108 Kansas 2 3 0.341 (102) 0.27 (112) 0.305
109 Southern Miss 2 4 0.38 (96) 0.225 (119) 0.303
110 Tulsa 1 4 0.215 (117) 0.378 (95) 0.296
111 Army 2 3 0.336 (105) 0.256 (114) 0.296
112 Tulane 1 4 0.229 (115) 0.351 (98) 0.29
113 North Texas 2 3 0.343 (101) 0.219 (121) 0.281
114 Wake Forest 2 4 0.373 (98) 0.177 (126) 0.275
115 South Florida 2 3 0.312 (110) 0.22 (120) 0.266
116 Hawaii 1 4 0.181 (121) 0.345 (100) 0.263
117 Vanderbilt 1 5 0.245 (113) 0.211 (123) 0.228
118 Connecticut 1 4 0.199 (118) 0.255 (115) 0.227
119 Georgia State 1 4 0.147 (125) 0.302 (107) 0.224
120 Miami-OH 1 5 0.147 (123) 0.301 (108) 0.224
121 Ball State 1 4 0.135 (126) 0.277 (111) 0.206
122 SMU 0 5 0.196 (119) 0.21 (124) 0.203
123 Idaho 0 5 0 (129) 0.387 (93) 0.193
124 Kent State 0 5 0.147 (124) 0.237 (117) 0.192
125 UNLV 1 5 0.172 (122) 0.187 (125) 0.179
126 Eastern Michigan 1 4 0.316 (108) 0 (129) 0.158
127 Non FBS 7 88 0.221 (116) 0.08 (128) 0.15
128 Massachusetts 0 6 0.067 (128) 0.215 (122) 0.141
129 Troy 0 5 0.07 (127) 0.149 (127) 0.109

2014 College Football – Week 5 – Starting to Catch Up

One of the maxims I have maintained about this exercise is that each week’s rankings are not a future indicator – but a summary of what we know about the season up to now.  Florida State’s schedule, for instance – had a combined one win against FBS opposition.  However, with a true road win at NC State combined with Clemson, Oklahoma State and even Yale defeating Army, Florida State’s profile made a quantum leap.  Nebraska’s win over Miami-FL looks better now, and the sheer destruction wrought by Michigan State combined with the Oregon loss not being at all bad, and their standing is enhanced.  West Virginia, a 2-2 team has actually played really well – and these rankings reflect that.  After all, speculation about which teams have “tough roads” ahead are well informed perhaps, but not backed by results.  Each week we learn more about the teams – as well as about what their resumes are really.

Anyway, with 5 weeks in the hopper, and our 2nd week of true standings, some of the big boys are starting to catch up.  And this week looks to be particularly massive at the top of the table

  1. THURSDAY: (23) Arizona at (11) Oregon
  2. (31) Miami-FL at (27) Georgia Tech
  3. (13) Texas A&M at (4) Mississippi State
  4. (18) Florida at (37) Tennessee
  5. (1) Alabama at (3) Ole Miss
  6. (5) Oklahoma at (16) TCU
  7. (26) Stanford at (7) Notre Dame
  8. (8) LSU at (2) Auburn
  9. (46) Arizona State at (12) USC
  10. (14) Nebraska at (21) Michigan State
  11. (68) Utah at (6) UCLA

As far as the one-man playoff selection?

  • The final 4: Alabama, Auburn, Oklahoma and UCLA still get the top 4 spots.  While UCLA is slightly behind the other two SEC teams, its conference kingpin status elevates them into the Top 4.  This gives you an Alabama-UCLA Sugar Bowl and Auburn-Oklahoma Rose Bowl.
  • The other Big 5 champs (we use losses in conference as first tiebreaker, and rating as the second) are Florida State for the ACC and Nebraska for the Big Ten.  East Carolina is the current “best of the rest” at #25.
  • This speaks for seven of the 12 spots.  That leaves Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Baylor and BYU as the reamining bids.  LSU is ranked above BYU, but it is a small margin – small enough that the undefeated record would probably seduce a selection committee for now.  Based on the Orange Bowl contract, Florida State plays the highest ranked of SEC/Big Ten/ND, so that puts Ole Miss in play.
  • BOWL PROJECTIONS.  Note we get a particularly juicy Cotton Bowl.  Nebraska in this projection goes to the Fiesta Bowl with its longtime Big XII old affiliation.  One expects Notre Dame to be able to carry the Atlanta game more.
    • Sugar Bowl: Alabama v UCLA
    • Rose Bowl: Auburn v Oklahoma
    • Orange Bowl: Florida State v Ole Miss
    • Cotton Bowl: Mississippi State v Baylor
    • Peach Bowl: Notre Dame v East Carolina
    • Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska v BYU

Weekly Power Rankings

Rank Team W L RPI Scale DSR Scale TotalRank
1 Alabama 4 0 0.96 (2) 1 (1) 0.98
2 Auburn 4 0 0.926 (3) 0.848 (7) 0.887
3 Ole Miss 4 0 0.843 (13) 0.921 (3) 0.882
4 Mississippi State 4 0 0.856 (10) 0.866 (6) 0.861
5 Oklahoma 4 0 0.895 (4) 0.79 (11) 0.842
6 UCLA 4 0 1 (1) 0.659 (31) 0.829
7 Notre Dame 4 0 0.851 (11) 0.767 (16) 0.809
8 LSU 4 1 0.641 (33) 0.963 (2) 0.802
9 Baylor 4 0 0.725 (17) 0.874 (5) 0.8
10 BYU 4 0 0.863 (9) 0.736 (22) 0.799
11 Oregon 4 0 0.873 (6) 0.699 (24) 0.786
12 USC 3 1 0.758 (16) 0.81 (8) 0.784
13 Texas A&M 5 0 0.872 (7) 0.694 (26) 0.783
14 Nebraska 5 0 0.849 (12) 0.66 (29) 0.754
15 Florida State 4 0 0.893 (5) 0.6 (43) 0.747
16 TCU 3 0 0.791 (15) 0.695 (25) 0.743
17 Louisville 4 1 0.678 (25) 0.798 (10) 0.738
18 Florida 2 1 0.686 (24) 0.776 (15) 0.731
19 Georgia 3 1 0.708 (22) 0.74 (21) 0.724
20 West Virginia 2 2 0.567 (52) 0.88 (4) 0.724
21 Michigan State 3 1 0.659 (28) 0.777 (14) 0.718
22 Arkansas 3 2 0.622 (36) 0.788 (12) 0.705
23 Arizona 4 0 0.871 (8) 0.528 (58) 0.7
24 Wisconsin 3 1 0.571 (50) 0.806 (9) 0.689
25 East Carolina 3 1 0.718 (18) 0.652 (34) 0.685
26 Stanford 3 1 0.582 (48) 0.783 (13) 0.682
27 Georgia Tech 4 0 0.799 (14) 0.559 (52) 0.679
28 Marshall 4 0 0.714 (20) 0.637 (35) 0.676
29 Ohio State 3 1 0.593 (45) 0.747 (18) 0.67
30 NC State 4 1 0.655 (30) 0.657 (33) 0.656
31 Miami-FL 3 2 0.563 (54) 0.741 (20) 0.652
32 Minnesota 4 1 0.693 (23) 0.583 (45) 0.638
33 Boise State 3 2 0.578 (49) 0.69 (27) 0.634
34 Northern Illinois 3 1 0.674 (26) 0.571 (46) 0.623
35 Virginia Tech 3 2 0.483 (71) 0.762 (17) 0.623
36 Penn State 4 1 0.617 (37) 0.616 (39) 0.616
37 Tennessee 2 2 0.521 (63) 0.703 (23) 0.612
38 Kansas State 3 1 0.609 (39) 0.612 (41) 0.611
39 Iowa 4 1 0.548 (59) 0.661 (28) 0.604
40 Missouri 4 1 0.648 (32) 0.556 (54) 0.602
41 Pittsburgh 3 2 0.459 (74) 0.742 (19) 0.601
42 Colorado State 3 1 0.657 (29) 0.539 (55) 0.598
43 Memphis 2 2 0.589 (47) 0.603 (42) 0.596
44 California 3 1 0.712 (21) 0.478 (73) 0.595
45 South Carolina 3 2 0.568 (51) 0.62 (38) 0.594
46 Arizona State 3 1 0.608 (40) 0.566 (48) 0.587
47 Nevada 3 1 0.717 (19) 0.449 (80) 0.583
48 Maryland 4 1 0.666 (27) 0.496 (66) 0.581
49 Kentucky 3 1 0.601 (44) 0.561 (50) 0.581
50 Georgia Southern 3 2 0.561 (55) 0.599 (44) 0.58
51 Rutgers 4 1 0.628 (34) 0.524 (59) 0.576
52 Oregon State 3 1 0.627 (35) 0.52 (60) 0.574
53 Clemson 2 2 0.511 (65) 0.623 (37) 0.567
54 Texas 2 2 0.566 (53) 0.561 (51) 0.563
55 Duke 4 1 0.603 (42) 0.507 (63) 0.555
56 Oklahoma State 3 1 0.61 (38) 0.499 (65) 0.555
57 Virginia 3 2 0.536 (60) 0.565 (49) 0.55
58 Boston College 3 2 0.438 (79) 0.659 (30) 0.549
59 MTSU 3 2 0.602 (43) 0.491 (68) 0.547
60 Washington 4 1 0.56 (56) 0.503 (64) 0.532
61 Air Force 3 1 0.653 (31) 0.409 (90) 0.531
62 Akron 2 2 0.493 (69) 0.559 (53) 0.526
63 Navy 2 3 0.422 (86) 0.628 (36) 0.525
64 Washington State 2 3 0.434 (82) 0.614 (40) 0.524
65 Western Kentucky 2 2 0.59 (46) 0.447 (82) 0.519
66 Cincinnati 2 1 0.534 (61) 0.475 (74) 0.504
67 Temple 3 1 0.504 (67) 0.496 (67) 0.5
68 Utah 3 1 0.531 (62) 0.453 (78) 0.492
69 Illinois 3 2 0.551 (58) 0.423 (86) 0.487
70 Northwestern 2 2 0.437 (81) 0.534 (56) 0.485
71 LA-Monroe 3 1 0.558 (57) 0.407 (91) 0.482
72 Syracuse 2 2 0.429 (84) 0.519 (61) 0.474
73 Indiana 2 2 0.454 (75) 0.491 (69) 0.472
74 Michigan 2 3 0.283 (108) 0.658 (32) 0.471
75 Arkansas State 2 2 0.451 (76) 0.48 (72) 0.465
76 Wyoming 3 2 0.605 (41) 0.317 (107) 0.461
77 Rice 1 3 0.429 (85) 0.488 (70) 0.459
78 Texas Tech 2 2 0.481 (72) 0.429 (85) 0.455
79 UAB 2 2 0.327 (101) 0.568 (47) 0.447
80 Texas State 2 2 0.408 (88) 0.485 (71) 0.446
81 Louisiana Tech 2 3 0.487 (70) 0.394 (92) 0.441
82 North Carolina 2 2 0.416 (87) 0.465 (76) 0.44
83 Old Dominion 3 2 0.496 (68) 0.382 (93) 0.439
84 Colorado 2 3 0.36 (94) 0.517 (62) 0.439
85 South Alabama 2 2 0.445 (77) 0.431 (84) 0.438
86 Fresno State 2 3 0.437 (80) 0.421 (89) 0.429
87 Iowa State 1 3 0.314 (104) 0.534 (57) 0.424
88 Bowling Green 3 2 0.513 (64) 0.335 (100) 0.424
89 Western Michigan 2 2 0.433 (83) 0.376 (95) 0.404
90 Florida Atlantic 2 3 0.51 (66) 0.296 (111) 0.403
91 Houston 2 2 0.342 (97) 0.458 (77) 0.4
92 UTSA 1 3 0.444 (78) 0.354 (99) 0.399
93 UCF 1 2 0.316 (103) 0.453 (79) 0.385
94 UTEP 2 2 0.4 (89) 0.368 (97) 0.384
95 Ohio 3 2 0.469 (73) 0.293 (113) 0.381
96 San Jose State 1 3 0.334 (99) 0.422 (87) 0.378
97 Toledo 3 2 0.371 (92) 0.378 (94) 0.375
98 Buffalo 3 2 0.285 (107) 0.448 (81) 0.367
99 Utah State 2 2 0.385 (90) 0.328 (103) 0.357
100 FIU 2 3 0.272 (110) 0.422 (88) 0.347
101 Appalachian State 1 3 0.21 (116) 0.472 (75) 0.341
102 New Mexico State 2 3 0.332 (100) 0.324 (104) 0.328
103 San Diego State 2 2 0.358 (95) 0.295 (112) 0.327
104 Tulsa 1 3 0.219 (113) 0.434 (83) 0.326
105 Kansas 2 2 0.341 (98) 0.282 (115) 0.311
106 LA-Lafayette 1 3 0.28 (109) 0.335 (101) 0.308
107 Central Michigan 2 3 0.344 (96) 0.268 (117) 0.306
108 South Florida 2 3 0.318 (102) 0.286 (114) 0.302
109 Southern Miss 2 3 0.385 (91) 0.195 (124) 0.29
110 Purdue 2 3 0.237 (112) 0.323 (105) 0.28
111 Tulane 1 4 0.197 (118) 0.36 (98) 0.278
112 Hawaii 1 3 0.179 (121) 0.375 (96) 0.277
113 New Mexico 1 3 0.239 (111) 0.296 (110) 0.268
114 North Texas 2 2 0.362 (93) 0.144 (126) 0.253
115 Wake Forest 2 3 0.301 (106) 0.198 (123) 0.249
116 Connecticut 1 4 0.201 (117) 0.281 (116) 0.241
117 Ball State 1 3 0.146 (124) 0.32 (106) 0.233
118 Georgia State 1 3 0.149 (123) 0.315 (108) 0.232
119 Army 1 3 0.214 (115) 0.231 (119) 0.222
120 Vanderbilt 1 4 0.217 (114) 0.211 (121) 0.214
121 UNLV 1 4 0.189 (120) 0.219 (120) 0.204
122 SMU 0 4 0.153 (122) 0.247 (118) 0.2
123 Miami-OH 0 5 0.07 (127) 0.307 (109) 0.189
124 Idaho 0 4 0 (129) 0.328 (102) 0.164
125 Eastern Michigan 1 3 0.301 (105) 0 (129) 0.15
126 Massachusetts 0 5 0.075 (126) 0.21 (122) 0.143
127 Non FBS 7 88 0.191 (119) 0.09 (128) 0.141
128 Kent State 0 4 0.114 (125) 0.132 (127) 0.123
129 Troy 0 5 0.056 (128) 0.169 (125) 0.112

2014 College Football – Week 4 – Fully Official

As a preamble, the recent business in the NFL creates a lot of questions about exactly what people ask from football – and the role football plays in creating many of these circumstances.  Obviously there is some nature vs nurture – football does not spawn wife beaters per se, although given the head injuries and the need, the demand from fans for this nth degree level of machismo and ferocity, that the programming spills over into real life is not a surprise.  We see it with soldiers returning home, and fans after upsets.  Louisa Thomas in particular covers this well.  I could note other things on how the football culture fosters much of what is not so savory about culture generally, but that’s another show.  I still like the games, but I am also sick.

For my heart, the most satisfying of the matches was Georgia Tech’s unlikely victory over Virginia Tech.  Now, (putting on my college football fan hat here) Paul Johnson has been more or less totally unjustly maligned over his 6+ seasons at the helm – and with a new AD, calling his position “embattled” seems fair.  I know fans who certainly are ready to move on – although their reasons seem specious, and the nostalgia for previous eras of football a bit misplaced.  Calvin Johnson, hero of Georgia Tech football and my own fantasy league, was great at Georgia Tech, but also played in a deadly boring offense – the equivalent of a using McDonald’s fried for your moules frites.  The program is immeasurably better now – and as a football fan it is fun to watch the flexbone offense.  What the first four games this season has shown is how important a good quarterback is (duh).  Last year’s quarterback Vad Lee had more throwing talent (though from his numbers you would not notice it) but he was a raised pocket passer who could not run the option.  What Justin Thomas had brought to the table is the best skillset since Josh Nesbitt.  I am not predicting a 10 win season, but there is no reason not to be happy.  Now the game itself was a comedy of errors – but Thomas pounced on the opportunities and helmed a stirring comeback, not the usual terrain for an option team.

With Cincinnati getting its second win, now all of the teams have 2 games played, so a real SoS metric can be derived. As such, the rankings are clean. Obviously, results now have huge marginal impacts – that is how the #2 team last week can drop to #20.  Not only did Florida lose at Alabama, but Eastern Michigan got demolished by Michigan State which punctured the Gators’ schedule ratings.  At the same time. last week’s #5 (LSU) only dropped to #9 by losing to a good team and their best win (Wisconsin) looking better and better.  So how does this show in the bowl projections?

  • The final 4: Alabama, Auburn, Oklahoma and UCLA get the top 4 spots.  While UCLA is slightly behind the other two SEC teams, its conference kingpin status elevates them into the Top 4.  This gives you an Alabama-UCLA Sugar Bowl and Auburn-Oklahoma Rose Bowl.
  • The other Big 5 champs (we use losses in conference as first tiebreaker, and rating as the second) are NC State for the ACC and Penn State for the Big Ten.  East Carolina is the current “best of the rest” at #21.
  • This speaks for seven of the 12 spots.  That leaves Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Baylor and BYU as the reamining bids.  LSU is ranked above BYU, but it is a small margin – small enough that the undefeated record would probably seduce a selection committee for now.  Based on the Orange Bowl contract, NC State plays the highest ranked of SEC/Big Ten/ND, so that puts Mississippi State in play.
  • BOWL PROJECTIONS.  Note we get a particularly juicy Cotton Bowl, and if you are into things like Crusades and Jihads, it is quite the Fiesta Bowl.
    • Sugar Bowl: Alabama v UCLA
    • Rose Bowl: Auburn v Oklahoma
    • Orange Bowl: NC State v Mississippi State
    • Cotton Bowl: Ole Miss v Baylor
    • Peach Bowl: Penn State v East Carolina
    • Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame v BYU

Weekly Power Rankings

Rank Team W L RPI Scale DSR Scale TotalRank
1 Alabama 4 0 0.978 (2) 1 (1) 0.989
2 Auburn 3 0 0.971 (3) 0.932 (4) 0.951
3 Oklahoma 4 0 0.923 (4) 0.881 (9) 0.902
4 Mississippi State 4 0 0.912 (5) 0.873 (11) 0.893
5 Ole Miss 3 0 0.831 (9) 0.913 (5) 0.872
6 UCLA 3 0 1 (1) 0.736 (32) 0.868
7 Notre Dame 3 0 0.864 (7) 0.805 (17) 0.835
8 Baylor 3 0 0.66 (32) 0.992 (2) 0.826
9 LSU 3 1 0.649 (36) 0.984 (3) 0.817
10 BYU 4 0 0.859 (8) 0.747 (29) 0.803
11 TCU 2 0 0.775 (16) 0.823 (15) 0.799
12 NC State 4 0 0.795 (14) 0.8 (18) 0.797
13 Arkansas 3 1 0.797 (13) 0.794 (19) 0.796
14 Oregon 4 0 0.812 (10) 0.762 (23) 0.787
15 USC 2 1 0.682 (27) 0.876 (10) 0.779
16 Penn State 4 0 0.806 (12) 0.752 (27) 0.779
17 Texas A&M 4 0 0.811 (11) 0.728 (34) 0.769
18 West Virginia 2 2 0.589 (47) 0.91 (6) 0.749
19 Arizona 4 0 0.881 (6) 0.591 (54) 0.736
20 Florida 2 1 0.676 (29) 0.794 (20) 0.735
21 East Carolina 3 1 0.749 (20) 0.697 (37) 0.723
22 Louisville 3 1 0.618 (40) 0.817 (16) 0.718
23 Georgia 2 1 0.591 (45) 0.841 (14) 0.716
24 Pittsburgh 3 1 0.529 (62) 0.9 (7) 0.714
25 Tennessee 2 1 0.672 (30) 0.753 (25) 0.713
26 Boise State 3 1 0.669 (31) 0.733 (33) 0.701
27 South Carolina 3 1 0.65 (34) 0.75 (28) 0.7
28 Georgia Tech 4 0 0.778 (15) 0.598 (52) 0.688
29 Marshall 4 0 0.701 (25) 0.673 (39) 0.687
30 Nebraska 4 0 0.774 (17) 0.595 (53) 0.684
31 Florida State 3 0 0.768 (18) 0.599 (51) 0.683
32 Arizona State 3 0 0.751 (19) 0.61 (46) 0.681
33 Memphis 2 1 0.612 (42) 0.743 (31) 0.677
34 Oregon State 3 0 0.694 (26) 0.636 (42) 0.665
35 Wisconsin 2 1 0.486 (67) 0.844 (13) 0.665
36 Duke 4 0 0.709 (24) 0.601 (50) 0.655
37 Boston College 3 1 0.538 (59) 0.761 (24) 0.649
38 Michigan State 2 1 0.542 (56) 0.743 (30) 0.643
39 Cincinnati 2 0 0.73 (23) 0.552 (60) 0.641
40 Utah 3 0 0.746 (21) 0.532 (67) 0.639
41 Michigan 2 2 0.374 (92) 0.882 (8) 0.628
42 Washington 4 0 0.74 (22) 0.514 (75) 0.627
43 Stanford 2 1 0.389 (87) 0.849 (12) 0.619
44 Navy 2 2 0.47 (71) 0.763 (22) 0.616
45 Northern Illinois 3 1 0.653 (33) 0.577 (57) 0.615
46 Minnesota 3 1 0.633 (38) 0.578 (56) 0.605
47 Virginia Tech 2 2 0.452 (74) 0.752 (26) 0.602
48 Georgia Southern 2 2 0.588 (48) 0.614 (44) 0.601
49 Ohio State 2 1 0.434 (80) 0.768 (21) 0.601
50 California 2 1 0.65 (35) 0.523 (71) 0.586
51 Kansas State 2 1 0.578 (50) 0.586 (55) 0.582
52 Rutgers 3 1 0.616 (41) 0.533 (66) 0.575
53 Miami-FL 2 2 0.43 (81) 0.716 (35) 0.573
54 Missouri 3 1 0.52 (64) 0.621 (43) 0.57
55 Maryland 3 1 0.62 (39) 0.52 (72) 0.57
56 Virginia 2 2 0.493 (66) 0.646 (40) 0.569
57 Indiana 2 1 0.568 (52) 0.567 (59) 0.567
58 Oklahoma State 2 1 0.526 (63) 0.602 (49) 0.564
59 Iowa 3 1 0.449 (75) 0.677 (38) 0.563
60 Illinois 3 1 0.586 (49) 0.527 (69) 0.556
61 LA-Monroe 2 1 0.552 (54) 0.547 (63) 0.549
62 Colorado State 2 1 0.601 (43) 0.495 (80) 0.548
63 Nevada 2 1 0.589 (46) 0.502 (78) 0.546
64 Kentucky 2 1 0.544 (55) 0.545 (65) 0.545
65 Syracuse 2 1 0.475 (70) 0.608 (48) 0.541
66 UAB 2 1 0.552 (53) 0.526 (70) 0.539
67 Old Dominion 3 1 0.647 (37) 0.414 (101) 0.531
68 Clemson 1 2 0.339 (97) 0.698 (36) 0.518
69 Wyoming 3 1 0.68 (28) 0.356 (111) 0.518
70 Air Force 2 1 0.574 (51) 0.458 (88) 0.516
71 UTSA 1 2 0.517 (65) 0.512 (76) 0.514
72 Texas Tech 2 1 0.594 (44) 0.432 (95) 0.513
73 UTEP 2 1 0.538 (58) 0.48 (84) 0.509
74 Texas 1 2 0.403 (86) 0.611 (45) 0.507
75 MTSU 2 2 0.454 (73) 0.546 (64) 0.5
76 North Carolina 2 1 0.538 (60) 0.46 (87) 0.499
77 Temple 2 1 0.437 (78) 0.55 (61) 0.494
78 Western Michigan 2 1 0.478 (69) 0.495 (81) 0.487
79 Arkansas State 2 2 0.449 (76) 0.514 (74) 0.481
80 Colorado 2 2 0.411 (82) 0.519 (73) 0.465
81 Louisiana Tech 2 2 0.484 (68) 0.443 (91) 0.464
82 Kansas 2 1 0.537 (61) 0.375 (109) 0.456
83 Rice 0 3 0.227 (117) 0.645 (41) 0.436
84 Texas State 1 2 0.259 (112) 0.609 (47) 0.434
85 Akron 1 2 0.317 (100) 0.55 (62) 0.434
86 New Mexico 1 2 0.388 (88) 0.479 (85) 0.434
87 UCF 1 2 0.325 (99) 0.53 (68) 0.427
88 Washington State 1 3 0.271 (110) 0.574 (58) 0.423
89 Western Kentucky 1 2 0.351 (94) 0.483 (83) 0.417
90 San Jose State 1 2 0.458 (72) 0.376 (108) 0.417
91 Houston 2 2 0.35 (95) 0.476 (86) 0.413
92 Appalachian State 1 2 0.299 (105) 0.506 (77) 0.402
93 New Mexico State 2 2 0.379 (90) 0.424 (97) 0.402
94 Utah State 2 2 0.411 (83) 0.386 (104) 0.398
95 South Alabama 1 2 0.381 (89) 0.406 (103) 0.393
96 Bowling Green 2 2 0.406 (85) 0.38 (106) 0.393
97 Southern Miss 2 2 0.539 (57) 0.242 (122) 0.391
98 Central Michigan 2 2 0.446 (77) 0.318 (114) 0.382
99 Iowa State 1 2 0.329 (98) 0.429 (96) 0.379
100 Purdue 2 2 0.308 (102) 0.438 (92) 0.373
101 Toledo 2 2 0.306 (103) 0.438 (93) 0.372
102 Ohio 2 2 0.41 (84) 0.315 (116) 0.362
103 Buffalo 2 2 0.233 (115) 0.485 (82) 0.359
104 Fresno State 1 3 0.297 (107) 0.421 (98) 0.359
105 Florida Atlantic 1 3 0.437 (79) 0.274 (118) 0.355
106 Tulsa 1 2 0.374 (91) 0.327 (112) 0.351
107 Hawaii 1 3 0.229 (116) 0.458 (89) 0.343
108 San Diego State 1 2 0.298 (106) 0.377 (107) 0.338
109 Tulane 1 3 0.225 (118) 0.45 (90) 0.337
110 LA-Lafayette 1 3 0.301 (104) 0.369 (110) 0.335
111 South Florida 2 2 0.348 (96) 0.317 (115) 0.332
112 Army 1 2 0.257 (114) 0.382 (105) 0.32
113 FIU 1 3 0.135 (125) 0.5 (79) 0.317
114 Northwestern 1 2 0.193 (120) 0.437 (94) 0.315
115 Georgia State 1 3 0.152 (122) 0.415 (99) 0.283
116 Miami-OH 0 4 0.154 (121) 0.41 (102) 0.282
117 Wake Forest 2 2 0.366 (93) 0.18 (124) 0.273
118 Connecticut 1 3 0.276 (109) 0.261 (119) 0.268
119 Vanderbilt 1 3 0.267 (111) 0.249 (121) 0.258
120 UNLV 1 3 0.258 (113) 0.214 (123) 0.236
121 Ball State 1 3 0.14 (124) 0.322 (113) 0.231
122 North Texas 2 2 0.31 (101) 0.138 (126) 0.224
123 Idaho 0 3 0.027 (128) 0.414 (100) 0.22
124 Massachusetts 0 4 0.149 (123) 0.251 (120) 0.2
125 SMU 0 3 0.092 (127) 0.303 (117) 0.198
126 Non FBS 6 87 0.202 (119) 0.114 (127) 0.158
127 Eastern Michigan 1 3 0.288 (108) 0 (129) 0.144
128 Troy 0 4 0.094 (126) 0.14 (125) 0.117
129 Kent State 0 3 0 (129) 0.034 (128) 0.017

2014 College Football – Week 3: Almost Clean Data

OK, we are almost there – with Cincinnati opening its schedule, we are one Bearcat game away from all teams having 2 games under their belt. This will allow the Strength of Schedule metrics (how a team does against “everybody else”) to kick in credibly (since of course each team will have an “everybody else”).  As one can imagine, the SEC dominates the rankings early.  Indeed, 7 of the top 10 positions are SEC Teams – although data is limited and I personally don’t think Eastern Michigan and Kentucky are great wins in the context of football, but who knows?  Auburn has been the most versatile team so far (6th on offense, 3rd on defense) while Florida has carried the mantle on defense so far (with LSU 2nd).  BYU, as longtime observers probably might expect, is tops offensively – although doing it as a running team certainly not a normal MO.  But anyway, the rankings are acceptable enough – how does this fit into the new college football playoff?  If we take it literally:

  • Six automatic qualifiers: The big five champs – using loss column standings and rankings, that would be Auburn, Oklahoma, UCLA, NC State and Penn State.  The best of the non-power conference teams is Boise State at #26.  So we populate the rest of the field:
  • The top 4.  Auburn, Oklahoma, Florida and UCLA … clearly we can go very deep into the SEC this year.  However, the committee is charged with providing some preference to conference champs.  UCLA more than fits the bill in this limited framework.  So, Auburn-UCLA is your Sugar Bowl and Oklahoma-Florida is the Rose Bowl.
  • What of the rest?  We have the Orange, Cotton, Peach and Fiesta Bowls.  The Orange Bowl gets the ACC champion against the highest ranked SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame opponent.  This clearly leads to NC State vs Alabama.  Good luck there, Wolfpack.
  • The rest of the bowls involve the displaced automatic qualifiers: Penn State and Boise State for the sake of argument.  We also get to four other teams for the sake of geography, competition and what have you.  This is all boogedy-boogedy right now, but I’ll take a stab.  Given the rankings – LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Notre Dame are your big 4.  Now I expect the SEC will diffuse itself as the season evolves and they start playing each other, but whatever for now.  So, controlling for geography and matchup:
    • Cotton Bowl: LSU v Notre Dame
    • Peach Bowl: Ole Miss v Penn State
    • Fiesta Bowl: Mississippi State v Boise State
  • Obviously this will change a lot – and I don’t like projections, so much as trying to systematically do the committee’s job if the season were to end.  Complete rankings below.

Weekly Power Rankings

Rank Team W L RPI Scale DSR Scale TotalRank
1 Auburn 2 0 1 (1) 1 (1) 1
2 Oklahoma 3 0 0.971 (3) 0.805 (11) 0.888
3 Florida 2 0 0.863 (10) 0.907 (2) 0.885
4 Alabama 3 0 0.949 (4) 0.816 (10) 0.882
5 LSU 3 0 0.822 (14) 0.9 (4) 0.861
6 UCLA 3 0 0.98 (2) 0.722 (20) 0.851
7 Ole Miss 3 0 0.855 (12) 0.818 (9) 0.837
8 Mississippi State 3 0 0.889 (7) 0.749 (17) 0.819
9 NC State 3 0 0.863 (10) 0.763 (14) 0.813
10 Notre Dame 3 0 0.941 (5) 0.678 (28) 0.81
11 Pittsburgh 3 0 0.762 (19) 0.855 (8) 0.808
12 Penn State 3 0 0.921 (6) 0.69 (26) 0.805
13 BYU 3 0 0.799 (16) 0.771 (13) 0.785
14 Oregon 3 0 0.855 (13) 0.674 (29) 0.764
15 TCU 2 0 0.804 (15) 0.714 (22) 0.759
16 West Virginia 2 1 0.64 (42) 0.872 (6) 0.756
17 Michigan 2 1 0.606 (51) 0.905 (3) 0.756
18 Navy 2 1 0.704 (34) 0.794 (12) 0.749
19 Baylor 3 0 0.611 (48) 0.887 (5) 0.749
20 Texas A&M 3 0 0.876 (9) 0.607 (36) 0.741
21 Arkansas 2 1 0.793 (18) 0.66 (32) 0.727
22 Georgia 1 1 0.591 (53) 0.856 (7) 0.723
23 Tennessee 2 1 0.71 (30) 0.722 (21) 0.716
24 Arizona 3 0 0.889 (7) 0.534 (58) 0.711
25 USC 2 1 0.739 (26) 0.669 (31) 0.704
26 Boise State 2 1 0.71 (30) 0.656 (33) 0.683
27 North Carolina 2 0 0.762 (20) 0.604 (38) 0.683
28 South Carolina 2 1 0.658 (40) 0.696 (24) 0.677
29 Syracuse 2 0 0.759 (22) 0.591 (41) 0.675
30 Northern Illinois 3 0 0.76 (21) 0.583 (44) 0.672
31 Louisville 2 1 0.584 (55) 0.741 (18) 0.662
32 East Carolina 2 1 0.733 (27) 0.567 (49) 0.65
33 Duke 3 0 0.705 (33) 0.593 (40) 0.649
34 Kentucky 2 1 0.622 (44) 0.67 (30) 0.646
35 Boston College 2 1 0.54 (67) 0.739 (19) 0.639
36 Georgia Tech 3 0 0.704 (35) 0.567 (48) 0.636
37 Cincinnati 1 0 0.683 (37) 0.587 (43) 0.635
38 Washington 3 0 0.794 (17) 0.47 (79) 0.632
39 Florida State 2 0 0.759 (22) 0.484 (74) 0.622
40 Arizona State 3 0 0.682 (38) 0.558 (53) 0.62
41 Nebraska 3 0 0.756 (24) 0.472 (77) 0.614
42 Virginia Tech 2 1 0.534 (71) 0.69 (25) 0.612
43 Wisconsin 1 1 0.457 (85) 0.757 (15) 0.607
44 Memphis 1 1 0.574 (59) 0.639 (35) 0.606
45 Missouri 3 0 0.7 (36) 0.511 (65) 0.606
46 Ohio State 2 1 0.506 (77) 0.702 (23) 0.604
47 Stanford 2 1 0.451 (86) 0.754 (16) 0.603
48 Louisiana Tech 2 1 0.74 (25) 0.462 (81) 0.601
49 Kansas State 2 0 0.713 (29) 0.484 (72) 0.599
50 Marshall 3 0 0.64 (43) 0.553 (56) 0.596
51 Minnesota 2 1 0.616 (46) 0.554 (55) 0.585
52 California 2 0 0.709 (32) 0.452 (84) 0.58
53 Oregon State 2 0 0.714 (28) 0.432 (90) 0.573
54 UAB 2 1 0.58 (58) 0.563 (52) 0.572
55 Miami-FL 2 1 0.495 (79) 0.64 (34) 0.567
56 Michigan State 1 1 0.535 (70) 0.577 (47) 0.556
57 Virginia 2 1 0.574 (60) 0.529 (61) 0.551
58 Old Dominion 2 1 0.611 (48) 0.489 (70) 0.55
59 Oklahoma State 2 1 0.536 (69) 0.563 (51) 0.549
60 San Diego State 1 1 0.493 (81) 0.605 (37) 0.549
61 LA-Monroe 2 1 0.545 (66) 0.538 (57) 0.541
62 Nevada 2 1 0.581 (56) 0.495 (68) 0.538
63 MTSU 2 1 0.581 (57) 0.494 (69) 0.537
64 Wyoming 2 1 0.644 (41) 0.413 (96) 0.529
65 San Jose State 1 1 0.619 (45) 0.435 (88) 0.527
66 Utah 2 0 0.664 (39) 0.385 (105) 0.524
67 Georgia Southern 1 2 0.461 (82) 0.581 (45) 0.521
68 Colorado State 2 1 0.615 (47) 0.427 (93) 0.521
69 Appalachian State 1 1 0.44 (90) 0.589 (42) 0.514
70 Air Force 2 1 0.588 (54) 0.437 (86) 0.512
71 Illinois 2 1 0.611 (48) 0.408 (99) 0.509
72 Bowling Green 2 1 0.508 (75) 0.506 (67) 0.507
73 Rutgers 2 1 0.534 (71) 0.473 (76) 0.503
74 Akron 1 1 0.529 (73) 0.476 (75) 0.503
75 UTEP 2 1 0.558 (62) 0.436 (87) 0.497
76 UTSA 1 2 0.517 (74) 0.47 (78) 0.494
77 New Mexico State 2 1 0.554 (63) 0.429 (91) 0.492
78 Texas Tech 2 1 0.564 (61) 0.411 (98) 0.487
79 Texas 1 2 0.442 (89) 0.532 (60) 0.487
80 Texas State 1 1 0.364 (101) 0.599 (39) 0.481
81 Western Kentucky 1 2 0.414 (93) 0.534 (59) 0.474
82 Maryland 2 1 0.508 (76) 0.427 (92) 0.467
83 Central Michigan 2 1 0.596 (52) 0.334 (116) 0.465
84 Rice 0 2 0.364 (98) 0.563 (50) 0.464
85 Clemson 1 1 0.372 (95) 0.554 (54) 0.463
86 Utah State 2 1 0.551 (64) 0.362 (111) 0.456
87 Temple 1 1 0.538 (68) 0.365 (110) 0.451
88 South Alabama 1 1 0.493 (80) 0.406 (100) 0.449
89 Iowa 2 1 0.31 (108) 0.578 (46) 0.444
90 UCF 0 2 0.364 (98) 0.513 (64) 0.438
91 Indiana 1 1 0.356 (104) 0.521 (62) 0.438
92 Northwestern 0 2 0.193 (121) 0.682 (27) 0.438
93 Iowa State 1 2 0.361 (102) 0.508 (66) 0.434
94 Arkansas State 1 2 0.371 (96) 0.485 (71) 0.428
95 Western Michigan 1 1 0.457 (84) 0.388 (104) 0.422
96 Army 1 1 0.459 (83) 0.367 (109) 0.413
97 Connecticut 1 2 0.364 (100) 0.445 (85) 0.405
98 Florida Atlantic 1 2 0.497 (78) 0.308 (118) 0.403
99 LA-Lafayette 1 2 0.394 (94) 0.406 (101) 0.4
100 Kansas 1 1 0.445 (88) 0.348 (113) 0.397
101 Tulsa 1 2 0.434 (91) 0.349 (112) 0.391
102 Colorado 1 2 0.282 (112) 0.484 (73) 0.383
103 Hawaii 1 2 0.328 (105) 0.435 (89) 0.382
104 Houston 1 2 0.305 (110) 0.456 (83) 0.38
105 Purdue 1 2 0.356 (103) 0.404 (102) 0.38
106 Southern Miss 1 2 0.547 (65) 0.211 (123) 0.379
107 FIU 1 2 0.24 (115) 0.514 (63) 0.377
108 Washington State 1 2 0.282 (111) 0.46 (82) 0.371
109 Ohio 1 2 0.418 (92) 0.303 (119) 0.36
110 UNLV 1 2 0.368 (97) 0.341 (115) 0.355
111 New Mexico 0 2 0.23 (116) 0.463 (80) 0.346
112 Eastern Michigan 1 2 0.446 (87) 0.212 (122) 0.329
113 Toledo 1 2 0.219 (118) 0.423 (95) 0.321
114 Tulane 1 2 0.249 (113) 0.37 (108) 0.309
115 Georgia State 1 2 0.192 (122) 0.425 (94) 0.308
116 Fresno State 0 3 0.203 (120) 0.412 (97) 0.308
117 Buffalo 1 2 0.219 (118) 0.383 (106) 0.301
118 Miami-OH 0 3 0.191 (123) 0.376 (107) 0.283
119 Ball State 1 2 0.15 (125) 0.346 (114) 0.248
120 South Florida 1 2 0.308 (109) 0.185 (125) 0.247
121 Wake Forest 1 2 0.312 (106) 0.176 (126) 0.244
122 Troy 0 3 0.165 (124) 0.31 (117) 0.237
123 Vanderbilt 1 2 0.22 (117) 0.217 (121) 0.219
124 Non FBS 5 77 0.24 (114) 0.17 (127) 0.205
125 Idaho 0 2 0 (129) 0.391 (103) 0.195
126 North Texas 1 2 0.31 (107) 0 (129) 0.155
127 Massachusetts 0 3 0.105 (127) 0.19 (124) 0.147
128 SMU 0 2 0.05 (128) 0.231 (120) 0.141
129 Kent State 0 3 0.105 (126) 0.08 (128) 0.092

2014 College Football – A Datapoint!

I know nothing. And neither does the model. The first real results won’t come in until Week 4 (with Cincinnati not even starting yet), but with a week of football marked by the revelation that Ray Rice is well versed in stuff that his fans are all too familiar with, a chance to enjoy the football I didn’t sleep through seemed like a useful respite.  Now, how does the magic happen?  It involves spreadsheets but is largely fairly straightforward:

  • The RPI Scale is a SOS adjusted winning percentage.  This is 50% record (with a road bonus), 33% opponents record (in games not involving you), 17% opponents opponents record.  The team with the highest RPI gets 1.000 and the worst gets 0,
  • The DSR scale is more complicated.  This is a schedule adjusted DSR, the drive success rate on offense compared to the opponents DSR against everybody else. This is done for both offense and defense and then subtracted.  This means, for example – if a team was 5% more successful in drives than their opponents normally allow, and a team allows 2% fewer successful drives then their opponents usually get, that is a total DSR of (5% – (-2%) = 7%).  This also gets scaled to a 0 – 1.000 rank.
  • The final rank is the average of the two.
  • To simplify calculations, all FCS teams are treated as one.  The road bonus is based on season long home win/loss percentages.
  • Potential sources of inaccuracy
    • Drive calcs – I used drive stats on ESPN.com, and then other sites as needed.  I try to take out drives which don’t count (like kneel downs) although the application is inexact.
    • Asymmetric schedules.  A number of teams do not have enough SoS data for the strength of schedules to reveal much.  Indeed, teams who have played two FBS opponents have a huge edge.
  • In any case, teams who have played two legitimate opponents have an edge – the rankings below are exactly reflective of the first two weeks we have sat through (or neglected), no more no less.  As more information comes in, the results will show.
  • I’d have more intelligent to say – but it’s Week 2!  Virginia Tech was very impressive – but let’s be honest, we know nothing about whether Ohio State is any good.  I can say the same about BYU’s win over Texas, although that is enough to keep them at the top rather justly.

Weekly Power Rankings

Rank Team W L RPI Scale DSR Scale TotalRank
1 BYU 2 0 1 (1) 0.754 (4) 0.877
2 Georgia 1 0 0.695 (42) 1 (1) 0.848
3 Auburn 2 0 0.901 (5) 0.787 (3) 0.844
4 Oklahoma 2 0 0.996 (3) 0.619 (22) 0.807
5 Mississippi State 2 0 0.897 (9) 0.696 (8) 0.796
6 Tennessee 2 0 0.901 (5) 0.687 (10) 0.794
7 UCLA 2 0 0.901 (5) 0.686 (11) 0.794
8 NC State 2 0 0.901 (5) 0.647 (16) 0.774
9 Alabama 2 0 0.863 (10) 0.671 (14) 0.767
10 Florida 1 0 0.695 (42) 0.838 (2) 0.766
11 Notre Dame 2 0 0.961 (4) 0.55 (32) 0.756
12 Arizona 2 0 1 (1) 0.503 (45) 0.751
13 USC 2 0 0.863 (10) 0.636 (20) 0.749
14 Pittsburgh 2 0 0.746 (30) 0.74 (5) 0.743
15 LA-Monroe 2 0 0.863 (10) 0.619 (21) 0.741
16 Penn State 2 0 0.863 (10) 0.582 (28) 0.722
17 Louisville 2 0 0.75 (19) 0.693 (9) 0.722
18 Ole Miss 2 0 0.858 (14) 0.576 (29) 0.717
19 Texas A&M 2 0 0.849 (15) 0.549 (33) 0.699
20 LSU 2 0 0.75 (19) 0.615 (23) 0.682
21 Iowa 2 0 0.75 (19) 0.586 (27) 0.668
22 UTSA 1 1 0.691 (45) 0.638 (19) 0.664
23 Louisiana Tech 1 1 0.796 (18) 0.515 (42) 0.656
24 Virginia Tech 2 0 0.849 (15) 0.458 (61) 0.654
25 Illinois 2 0 0.849 (15) 0.441 (63) 0.645
26 Oregon 2 0 0.75 (19) 0.532 (37) 0.641
27 Baylor 2 0 0.609 (61) 0.673 (13) 0.641
28 Michigan 1 1 0.588 (72) 0.685 (12) 0.636
29 Northern Illinois 2 0 0.712 (34) 0.53 (38) 0.621
30 Minnesota 2 0 0.75 (19) 0.487 (49) 0.619
31 North Carolina 2 0 0.75 (19) 0.485 (53) 0.618
32 Missouri 2 0 0.75 (19) 0.482 (55) 0.616
33 Boise State 1 1 0.616 (58) 0.604 (25) 0.61
34 Kentucky 2 0 0.746 (30) 0.462 (59) 0.604
35 South Carolina 1 1 0.487 (94) 0.706 (7) 0.596
36 UAB 1 1 0.652 (46) 0.533 (36) 0.593
37 Army 1 0 0.695 (42) 0.485 (54) 0.59
38 New Mexico State 2 0 0.75 (19) 0.424 (69) 0.587
39 Texas State 1 0 0.599 (65) 0.574 (30) 0.586
40 Marshall 2 0 0.611 (59) 0.561 (31) 0.586
41 Ohio State 1 1 0.649 (47) 0.517 (41) 0.583
42 Boston College 1 1 0.451 (101) 0.715 (6) 0.583
43 Maryland 2 0 0.75 (19) 0.413 (73) 0.581
44 Central Michigan 2 0 0.746 (30) 0.403 (79) 0.574
45 Arkansas 1 1 0.643 (48) 0.505 (43) 0.574
46 Arkansas State 1 1 0.643 (48) 0.503 (44) 0.573
47 TCU 1 0 0.599 (65) 0.538 (35) 0.569
48 Memphis 1 1 0.643 (48) 0.486 (50) 0.565
49 Wyoming 2 0 0.75 (19) 0.379 (88) 0.565
50 Idaho 0 1 0.481 (95) 0.645 (18) 0.563
51 Florida State 2 0 0.75 (19) 0.37 (92) 0.56
52 West Virginia 1 1 0.469 (100) 0.646 (17) 0.558
53 Texas 1 1 0.582 (73) 0.528 (39) 0.555
54 Arizona State 2 0 0.609 (61) 0.496 (46) 0.552
55 California 2 0 0.712 (34) 0.386 (85) 0.549
56 Oregon State 2 0 0.712 (34) 0.382 (86) 0.547
57 Western Kentucky 1 1 0.592 (70) 0.496 (47) 0.544
58 Texas Tech 2 0 0.746 (30) 0.333 (103) 0.54
59 Georgia Southern 1 1 0.643 (48) 0.434 (64) 0.538
60 Indiana 1 0 0.599 (65) 0.477 (56) 0.538
61 Nevada 2 0 0.712 (34) 0.359 (98) 0.535
62 Miami-FL 1 1 0.544 (77) 0.525 (40) 0.535
63 Wisconsin 1 1 0.474 (98) 0.588 (26) 0.531
64 Rutgers 2 0 0.712 (34) 0.345 (101) 0.528
65 Clemson 1 1 0.506 (88) 0.546 (34) 0.526
66 Stanford 1 1 0.435 (105) 0.61 (24) 0.522
67 Utah 2 0 0.712 (34) 0.326 (106) 0.519
68 Old Dominion 1 1 0.643 (48) 0.393 (83) 0.518
69 Nebraska 2 0 0.712 (34) 0.32 (108) 0.516
70 San Diego State 1 1 0.544 (77) 0.486 (51) 0.515
71 Michigan State 1 1 0.544 (77) 0.485 (52) 0.515
72 Navy 1 1 0.591 (71) 0.432 (66) 0.512
73 San Jose State 1 1 0.643 (48) 0.375 (90) 0.509
74 MTSU 1 1 0.544 (77) 0.464 (58) 0.504
75 Kansas State 2 0 0.611 (59) 0.391 (84) 0.501
76 Washington 2 0 0.712 (34) 0.279 (115) 0.495
77 Colorado State 1 1 0.62 (57) 0.369 (94) 0.495
78 Georgia Tech 2 0 0.609 (61) 0.379 (89) 0.494
79 Duke 2 0 0.609 (61) 0.368 (95) 0.488
80 Air Force 1 1 0.544 (77) 0.41 (74) 0.477
81 Connecticut 1 1 0.538 (85) 0.415 (71) 0.476
82 Tulsa 1 1 0.547 (76) 0.405 (76) 0.476
83 Ball State 1 1 0.544 (77) 0.405 (77) 0.474
84 Northwestern 0 2 0.283 (116) 0.663 (15) 0.473
85 Virginia 1 1 0.538 (85) 0.406 (75) 0.472
86 Akron 1 1 0.54 (83) 0.401 (80) 0.471
87 UCF 0 1 0.481 (95) 0.459 (60) 0.47
88 East Carolina 1 1 0.506 (88) 0.42 (70) 0.463
89 Utah State 1 1 0.643 (48) 0.27 (116) 0.457
90 Rice 0 1 0.481 (95) 0.425 (68) 0.453
91 Ohio 1 1 0.556 (74) 0.346 (100) 0.451
92 Appalachian State 1 1 0.506 (88) 0.381 (87) 0.443
93 UTEP 1 1 0.554 (75) 0.33 (105) 0.442
94 Southern Miss 1 1 0.643 (48) 0.236 (121) 0.44
95 Buffalo 1 1 0.506 (88) 0.355 (99) 0.431
96 Kansas 1 0 0.599 (65) 0.261 (118) 0.43
97 South Alabama 1 0 0.412 (106) 0.444 (62) 0.428
98 Oklahoma State 1 1 0.474 (98) 0.37 (93) 0.422
99 UNLV 1 1 0.643 (48) 0.196 (125) 0.419
100 Eastern Michigan 1 1 0.506 (88) 0.332 (104) 0.419