Tag Archives: Saints

2012 NFL Update #3

Posted on by

The problem with having something giant magically pop up in your life is that the old things slip – like putting an NFL update together in time.  Alas, my neglect of this – especially with the league going to Thursday games.  Obviously with Arizona’s execrable offensive line performance, the lofty perch the Cardinals hold in the pre-Week 4 power rankings will change.  At the same time, there is more of the league to observe, so here is a quick update with the rankings prior to Thursday.  Note that if we added Thursday to the soup the Rams would be #7 and the Cardinals would be #4.

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Texans 4 0 0.627 (4) 21.083 (1) 29
2 Falcons 4 0 0.67 (3) 18.875 (3) 29
3 Cardinals 4 0 0.75 (1) 16.542 (5) 29
4 Ravens 3 1 0.625 (5) 16.25 (6) 27
5 Bears 3 1 0.604 (8) 13.063 (8) 25
6 Patriots 2 2 0.609 (7) 17.625 (4) 24
7 Eagles 3 1 0.677 (2) 3.938 (15) 24
8 Vikings 3 1 0.578 (10) 6.854 (11) 23
9 49ers 3 1 0.623 (6) 15.542 (7) 22
10 Broncos 2 2 0.563 (11) 19.375 (2) 21
11 Bengals 3 1 0.56 (12) 3.875 (16) 19
12 Rams 2 2 0.503 (15) 4.125 (14) 19
13 Seahawks 2 2 0.594 (9) 8 (10) 19
14 Packers 2 2 0.466 (21) 10.646 (9) 18
15 Chargers 3 1 0.554 (13) 3.667 (17) 15
16 Dolphins 1 3 0.499 (16) 4.458 (13) 14
17 Cowboys 2 2 0.498 (17) 2.646 (19) 13
18 Colts 1 2 0.479 (18) -3.333 (26) 12
19 Giants 2 2 0.448 (22) 6.458 (12) 10
20 Jaguars 1 3 0.552 (14) -1.917 (23) 9
21 Lions 1 3 0.429 (23) -2.188 (24) 9
22 Steelers 1 2 0.379 (28) 0 (20) 6
23 Redskins 2 2 0.401 (26) 2.708 (18) 6
24 Jets 2 2 0.467 (20) -2.208 (25) 5
25 Bills 2 2 0.388 (27) -5.042 (28) 3
26 Titans 1 3 0.469 (19) -7.792 (29) 3
27 Browns 0 4 0.411 (25) -3.375 (27) 3
28 Chiefs 1 3 0.417 (24) -7.917 (30) 2
29 Bucs 1 3 0.313 (30) -0.271 (21) 2
30 Panthers 1 3 0.307 (31) -1.188 (22) 1
31 Raiders 1 3 0.368 (29) -9.75 (32) 0
32 Saints 0 4 0.188 (32) -8.042 (31) 0

Some of the usual observations:

  • Despite the intro – the Cardinals 4-0(1) start is still pretty remarkable.  What is particular fascinating is that the entire NFC West is .500 or better – just think that two seasons ago this was the sickest joke in playoff football history.  Season is long, so there is time for this to change, but still.
  • Patriots sagging at 1-2 hung up a 45 point second half over the poor Buffalo Bills.  2-2 is not “fixed” by any means, but the 4th rated scoring margin portends to bigger things ahead.
  • We have talked about the NFC East as a surprise, but clearly the NFL’s biggest shock so far is the 3-1 start enjoyed by the Minnesota Vikings – who were largely expected to stink.  Adrian Peterson’s return has helped a ton, but really it is the development of Christian Ponder into an adequate NFL quarterback and a defense which has largely been good enough.  They have not piled up any of the Bears/Vikings games yet, but a win over Detroit at least for now seems like a nice feather.
  • The disappointment?  Well – it has to be the Saints, though last week represented progress.  Frankly, in prime time with Drew Brees ready to set a record, it would be hard to envision them losing to San Diego – although their defense is horrific enough to allow that possibility.  Can the Saints go 10-2 the rest of the way?  I wouldn’t put it past them, but clearly they are up against it now in the playoff chase.

2012 NFL Update #2

Posted on by

Well, that was something, wasn’t it?  What I can say about the ghastly prime time games involving the Patriots, Ravens, Packers and Seahawks is that, well – it’s unpredictable.  Cris Collinsworth, while the best football analyst on television is also the spearhead of the most visible broadcast, was at his wits end trying not to blurt out that this is pretty ridiculous.  What is fascinating about the scab refs is not that they have screwed up pass interference calls or 100 mph sort of snap judgments – but that they have been so reliably bad at the easy stuff.  We see balls mis-spotted, we see fumble calls being egregiously blown.  The refs are screwing up way worse than you’d expect.  It obviously is reflecting in a product, which has become much more compelling, but in a rather creepy dangerous sort of “what’s gonna happen next” sort of way.

That said, there has been 3 weeks of football in the can, and thus more trends and such.  As the season goes on, the fluctuations in the rankings will shrink – but right now the schedule strength causes a lot of flopping about.  So what of Week 3?

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Falcons 3 0 0.75 (3) 25.667 (1) 30
2 Texans 3 0 0.681 (5) 25.667 (1) 29
3 Cardinals 3 0 0.847 (1) 21 (3) 29
4 Seahawks 2 1 0.764 (2) 16.917 (6) 28
5 Ravens 2 1 0.639 (7) 17 (5) 25
6 Broncos 1 2 0.599 (8) 20.917 (4) 24
7 Jets 2 1 0.553 (14) 10.917 (10) 23
8 Cowboys 2 1 0.678 (6) 8.625 (13) 23
9 Patriots 1 2 0.589 (10) 16 (7) 22
10 Eagles 2 1 0.692 (4) 2.167 (20) 22
11 49ers 2 1 0.567 (11) 9.5 (12) 20
12 Vikings 2 1 0.556 (13) 4.333 (16) 19
13 Packers 1 2 0.53 (15) 13.417 (8) 17
14 Chargers 2 1 0.592 (9) 5.583 (15) 16
15 Giants 2 1 0.508 (16) 11.292 (9) 16
16 Dolphins 1 2 0.502 (17) 8.333 (14) 14
17 Steelers 1 2 0.389 (24) 3.333 (17) 13
18 Bills 2 1 0.484 (18) 3.25 (18) 12
19 Jaguars 1 2 0.561 (12) 2.667 (19) 12
20 Bears 2 1 0.458 (20) 9.917 (11) 12
21 Bucs 1 2 0.444 (21) 1.208 (21) 10
22 Bengals 2 1 0.47 (19) -1.083 (23) 9
23 Chiefs 1 2 0.436 (22) -3.25 (24) 8
24 Colts 1 2 0.433 (23) -4.083 (26) 6
25 Raiders 1 2 0.363 (25) -7.25 (28) 4
26 Lions 1 2 0.347 (28) -6.917 (27) 4
27 Titans 1 2 0.363 (25) -14.5 (31) 3
28 Rams 1 2 0.319 (29) -0.083 (22) 3
29 Browns 0 3 0.361 (27) -8.417 (29) 2
30 Redskins 1 2 0.242 (30) -3.583 (25) 2
31 Panthers 1 2 0.224 (31) -9.042 (30) 1
32 Saints 0 3 0.069 (32) -14.75 (32) 0

Some of the quick thoughts from the week past:

  • You will hear all sorts of doomsday stats about the Saints 0-3 start and how so few teams have made the playoffs after an 0-3 beginning.  Of course these stats are nonsense as far proving that a bad start is fatal – it is more that 0-3 is a harbinger that your team sucks, and THAT is why the 0-3 start is problematic.  It is a sign of league balance that there are only two winless sides at this point.  The Saints start has been particularly troubling as the Redskins, Panthers and Chiefs are by no means a murderer’s row of opposition.  The Browns – well, we knew this all along.
  • The Cardinals as of today certainly earned their lofty ranking.  The dominant victory over the Eagles showed another game where they allowed fewer than 20 points.  The defense – with studs like Patrick Peterson and Darnell Dockett – has been championship timber so far even with the offense being relatively uninspiring.  If this sounds like a familiar formula to win the NFC West, well …
  • On the other hand, the Falcons and Texans are passing the eye test much easier.  The Falcons – football’s boring, stable boyfriend – have shown some duende and force in the early going not yet seen.  Do they have the horsepower to not just be a quality team but a truly fear inducing one?  The Texans, they are just so balanced across the board – although that division might end up inflating their record slightly.  But you can’t quibble with the results so far.

2012 NFL Update #1

Posted on by

Ahoy mateys! Finally, with Week 2 in the books and all 32 teams having 2 games in the bag – we have enough schedule data to start putting some power rankings together. The methodology and consistent updates are here per usual, but what does the first snapshot of the season look like?

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 49ers 2 0 1 (1) 21.75 (5) 30
2 Cardinals 2 0 0.938 (2) 30.5 (2) 30
3 Seahawks 1 1 0.813 (3) 21.25 (6) 28
4 Packers 1 1 0.763 (5) 20 (7) 27
5 Broncos 1 1 0.75 (6) 26.5 (3) 26
6 Eagles 2 0 0.688 (7) 19.25 (8) 26
7 Falcons 2 0 0.688 (7) 15 (10) 24
8 Texans 2 0 0.625 (10) 36.5 (1) 22
9 Ravens 1 1 0.688 (7) 24.5 (4) 22
10 Steelers 1 1 0.563 (12) 16.5 (9) 20
11 Lions 1 1 0.813 (3) 10.5 (13) 19
12 Dolphins 1 1 0.5 (15) 14 (11) 17
13 Bears 1 1 0.563 (12) 6.25 (16) 15
14 Rams 1 1 0.5 (15) 8.25 (14) 15
15 Jets 1 1 0.438 (18) 11.5 (12) 14
16 Patriots 1 1 0.563 (12) 4.5 (18) 13
17 Cowboys 1 1 0.613 (11) 3.75 (20) 13
18 Bucs 1 1 0.438 (18) 5.25 (17) 12
19 Giants 1 1 0.45 (17) -1.75 (23) 11
20 Jaguars 0 2 0.313 (22) 4 (19) 9
21 Chargers 2 0 0.375 (21) 3.5 (21) 9
22 Colts 1 1 0.438 (18) -6.5 (26) 7
23 Raiders 0 2 0.313 (22) -4 (25) 6
24 Bengals 1 1 0.313 (22) -6.75 (27) 5
25 Browns 0 2 0.313 (22) -12 (29) 3
26 Bills 1 1 0.25 (28) -10.5 (28) 2
27 Redskins 1 1 0.238 (30) 7 (15) 2
28 Titans 0 2 0.313 (22) -14.5 (31) 1
29 Panthers 1 1 0.188 (31) 0.5 (22) 1
30 Chiefs 0 2 0.313 (22) -17 (32) 0
31 Vikings 1 1 0.25 (28) -13 (30) 0
32 Saints 0 2 0 (32) -3.75 (24) 0

Obviously – as one could surmise – there is not a lot of data here, just two weeks of quality to evaluate, but that doesn’t mean that there are not things to discuss.

  • Ahoy NFC West!  The 49ers we knew should be good.  But the authoritative wins over Green Bay and Detroit were eye openers.  The combined 2-0 record of opponents obviously overstates the schedule, but not that much.  Seattle and Arizona also have 2-0 schedules.  Arizona’s win at New England ties the Saints loss to the Redskins as the season’s biggest surprise to date.
  • The Saints at #32 are obviously the big surprise in the other direction.  The losses, and truly hideous defensive performances, have taken a lot of the bloom off of the Super Bowl contending rose.  Obviously the coaching staff shakeup has caused some strife – but still, these were not particularly distinguished teams they have lost to.
  • Both Andrew Luck and RG3 look like the real things.  RG3′s results are better so far yes, but his team is more talented, and it is easier I think for a dual threat quarterback to have an early impact.  Griffin’s cool and decision making have been excellent, but Luck has had a lot more put on his shoulders.  The Colts are further behind in development, and he has been given more of the finished NFL offense (somehow I suspect Griffin running option out of the pistol will not last if Shanahan had his druthers).

2010 NFL Power Rankings – Final

Posted on by

Well, one week of the playoffs is already in the can … that said, for posterity’s sake, here are the final numbers:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Patriots 14 2 0 17.09 3.481 2 1
2 Packers 10 6 0 13.324 2.745 6 3
3 Steelers 12 4 0 12.965 2.653 9 4
4 Falcons 13 3 0 10.79 1.353 22 5
5 Chargers 9 7 0 9.833 0.833 24 2
6 Ravens 12 4 0 8.99 1.803 16 7
7 Jets 11 5 0 8.251 2.329 11 8
8 Eagles 10 6 0 7.571 2.164 12 6
9 Saints 11 5 0 6.634 0.29 28 9
10 Colts 10 6 0 6.559 1.872 14 10
11 Bears 11 5 0 6.182 1.666 20 13
12 Raiders 8 8 0 4.792 1.495 21 15
13 Giants 10 6 0 4.647 0.475 25 11
14 Titans 6 10 0 4.588 1.854 15 12
15 Lions 6 10 0 3.851 2.851 5 16
16 Chiefs 10 6 0 3.771 -0.479 30 14
17 Bucs 10 6 0 3.59 0.403 27 21
18 Texans 6 10 0 1.895 2.458 10 19
19 Dolphins 7 9 0 1.302 3.302 3 17
20 Cowboys 6 10 0 1.125 1.797 17 20
21 Browns 5 11 0 0.733 2.671 7 18
22 Bengals 4 12 0 0.317 3.755 1 27
23 Vikings 6 10 0 0.218 2.656 8 24
24 49ers 6 10 0 -0.447 0.459 26 28
25 Redskins 6 10 0 -0.87 1.974 13 26
26 Rams 7 9 0 -1.355 -0.871 31 25
27 Jaguars 8 8 0 -1.423 0.952 23 22
28 Bills 4 12 0 -3.284 3.231 4 23
29 Seahawks 7 9 0 -3.974 0.151 29 29
30 Broncos 4 12 0 -4.008 1.773 18 30
31 Cardinals 5 11 0 -8.242 -0.945 32 31
32 Panthers 2 14 0 -9.675 1.732 19 32

If we used the raw numbers from this thing for the wild card round, we would have had (without adjusting for home field):

Saints by 10.6 over the Seahawks, Jets by 1.8 over the Colts, Ravens by 5.2 over the Chiefs, Packers by 5.7 over the Eagles.  Pat on the back for me, even if my picks did not make the mark!

For the record, incorporating the Week 18 results, the raw numbers for this weekends matchups (the delta in “margin”):

Steelers by 2.8 over the Ravens, Packers by 2.6 over the Falcons, Patriots by 8.7 over the Jets, Bears by 9.3 over the Seahawks … picks to come later in the week

 

2010 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round

Posted on by

Wow, it HAS been a while, hasn’t it? Anyhoo, Happy New Year to this teeny tiny following here, and I hope that your holidays have been good. Writing from India, obviously great blogging time has been intermittent. (Thus the dearth of power rankings) Of course, there will be posts covering that adventure forthcoming.

However, there is the business at hand, the wild card round and the four matches. With time a wastin before my flight tonight, time to get some wrong picks out there. This way if I am wrong, I have to be accountable – I did not attend Tom Coughlin’s school of blame shifting.

New Orleans Saints (-10.5) at Seattle Seahawks: It is hard for this to not offend my sensibility. The Seahawks of Pete Carroll, by virtue of their location in the truly execrable NFC West, rode a 7-9 record to a home game against the Saints. The Saints are considerable still, though lacking the creds of last year, in particular a decimated running back corps. The defense has been less turnover strong than a year ago. But come on! Even with home field, the Seabags were one of the league’s worst most of the season, and they were debating QBs for the game. The only question is if the Saints cover. Saints 34, Seahawks 17

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5): Rematch of last year’s AFC title game. The Jets are better, the Colts are worse. Now, the Jets have issues running consistently, while Mark Sanchez is beat up at quarterback. The defense is strong though. However the blitz heavy defense is made to order for Peyton Manning if his line can block. And they’ll have to with their injuries at skill positions and their near total inability to run. Peyton can make any prognosticator look bad, but the Jets have to be smarter in their defense this season, especially with a stronger cornerback tandem. Few points but Jets 20, Colts 14

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5): Rematch of week 1, but this might as well not be. That Eagle team thought Kevin Kolb would be starting. Instead we have the force of nature that is Mike Vick back in the playoffs for the first time in 6 seasons. The Eagles are the most dynamic offense in the league with unmatched big play ability from both passing and running avenues. The Packers have a big play defense and their own force of nature in Aaron Rodgers quarterbacking, but a line that gives him little help, and a total inability to run the football. The Eagles defense makes plays but gives points up, while their return and kicking game require no explanation. Anyway, this is clearly the best game of the weekend. The Eagles do just enough. Eagles 31, Packers 28

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs: The playoffs are back in Kansas City, which is neat. And this team is in line with what the 90s Martyball teams would love – running hard, passing smart, strong defense. Baltimore clearly is an elite team, especially when they keep the offense focused around Ray Rice like they did in their win over the Saints in Week 15. The defense gets the ink, but they have given up big ground games to opponents much of the year. In a lot of ways this is an offense driven Raven team between Flacco, Rice and their depth at receiver. Baltimore scares me as a Patriots fan but they have to advance first, and the Chiefs might be the wrong matchup. This is no fun without calling a surprise. Chiefs 23, Ravens 20

NFL Power Rankings – Week 11

Posted on by

Three teams share the lead with an 8-2 record.  None of them are #1.  As always, a combination of scoring margin and opponents’ scoring margin:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Packers 7 3 0 13.456 1.781 15 2
2 Steelers 7 3 0 13.025 4.5 2 4
3 Eagles 7 3 0 10.894 3.694 5 5
4 Falcons 8 2 0 10.161 2.311 12 7
5 Titans 5 5 0 9.703 2.178 13 1
6 Patriots 8 2 0 9.581 3.256 8 6
7 Jets 8 2 0 9.542 1.692 17 3
8 Ravens 7 3 0 8.592 0.992 19 10
9 Chargers 5 5 0 8.331 0.431 26 9
10 Colts 6 4 0 8.067 0.767 23 8
11 Saints 7 3 0 5.429 -2.121 32 15
12 Giants 6 4 0 5.406 0.831 21 11
13 Browns 3 7 0 5.061 4.711 1 14
14 Bears 7 3 0 5.033 -0.867 28 18
15 Chiefs 6 4 0 4.469 -0.881 29 16
16 Lions 2 8 0 3.844 2.544 11 12
17 Dolphins 5 5 0 2.467 4.317 3 17
18 Raiders 5 5 0 2.453 0.628 24 13
19 Redskins 5 5 0 1.583 3.983 4 23
20 Texans 4 6 0 0.665 3.215 9 24
21 Bucs 7 3 0 0.056 -1.994 31 28
22 Cowboys 3 7 0 0.04 2.165 14 27
23 Vikings 3 7 0 -0.111 3.539 6 19
24 Bills 2 8 0 -0.403 3.322 7 30
25 Broncos 3 7 0 -1.55 3.05 10 21
26 Rams 4 6 0 -1.731 -1.356 30 22
27 Jaguars 6 4 0 -1.858 1.742 16 29
28 Bengals 2 8 0 -2.261 1.689 18 20
29 Seahawks 5 5 0 -2.67 -0.27 27 25
30 49ers 3 7 0 -3.961 0.539 25 26
31 Cardinals 3 7 0 -7.335 0.84 20 31
32 Panthers 1 9 0 -11.119 0.831 22 32

The simple takeaway from this week – the Saints are starting to round into form it seems. That and the Bucs 21-0 win over the 49ers – their best result of the year – did not go unnoticed by the model.

What is also interesting is that while the AFC continues to dominate the Top 10, the NFC is starting to rise to the top, with three of the four top rated teams being NFC entries.  In a year without a dominant outfit, it might very well be that the NFC has the best teams – but the AFC just has many many more good ones.  I mean even the bad AFC teams – like Buffalo, clearly are playing good football now, marked by their shocking comeback over the possibly dead Bengals.

NFL Power Rankings – Week 5

Posted on by

In a strange week of upsets and strange blowouts, we get strange impacts.  The formula is pretty simple, a team’s rating is:

50% their scoring margin (with blowout margins getting less credit)

50% opponents scoring margin against other teams (i.e. factoring out the results against that team)

The Steelers have been #1 all season with the combination of schedule strength and results.  With this being their bye week, not much changed.  There were some shakeups though:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Steelers 3 1 0 20.917 10.229 1 1
2 Jets 4 1 0 14.6 2.4 12 2
3 Titans 3 2 0 12.842 4.042 6 7
4 Ravens 4 1 0 12.45 6.35 2 4
5 Colts 3 2 0 11.383 2.283 13 9
6 Patriots 3 1 0 11.073 0.885 18 6
7 Falcons 4 1 0 10.1 0 26 10
8 Packers 3 2 0 9.963 1.863 16 8
9 Chiefs 3 1 0 9.625 2.875 8 3
10 Lions 1 4 0 8.829 4.929 3 21
11 Chargers 2 3 0 7.988 -0.613 27 5
12 Bears 4 1 0 7.633 1.933 15 18
13 Eagles 3 2 0 6.325 0.475 22 11
14 Giants 3 2 0 5.675 2.675 10 24
15 Broncos 2 3 0 4.158 4.458 5 13
16 Vikings 1 3 0 3.604 2.854 9 23
17 Cowboys 1 3 0 3.531 3.281 7 14
18 Redskins 3 2 0 3.033 2.233 14 12
19 Browns 1 4 0 2.325 4.725 4 19
20 Bengals 2 3 0 2.067 0.367 24 16
21 Seahawks 2 2 0 0.391 -0.859 29 17
22 Bucs 3 1 0 -0.979 -1.229 30 25
23 Texans 3 2 0 -1.425 0.775 20 15
24 Rams 2 3 0 -2.454 -1.904 31 20
25 Raiders 2 3 0 -3.125 0.075 25 28
26 Saints 3 2 0 -3.763 -4.563 32 22
27 Dolphins 2 2 0 -3.99 0.76 21 26
28 Jaguars 3 2 0 -4.15 0.45 23 27
29 49ers 0 5 0 -6.196 2.504 11 29
30 Cardinals 3 2 0 -6.338 1.313 17 30
31 Panthers 0 5 0 -11.033 -0.833 28 32
32 Bills 0 5 0 -12.525 0.875 19 31

The noteworthy items?

  • The Lions are almost certainly not a Top 10 team, but a 44-6 result will do that for you.  Mix some close results against decent teams in … the long run ought to solve this – but we have not reached the long run yet.
  • Chiefs fall to 9, but they do look like a Top 10 defense at least against the Colts.  Matt Cassel though does not smell like a QB for this caliber of team though.
  • Three 3-2 teams in the bottom 8.  When you don’t beat anybody who is demonstrably good, this will happen.  Saints are better than this – I am not sure the Cardinals and Jags are though.

NFL Power Rankings – Week 3

Posted on by

As has been explained before, the rankings are 50% a team’s margin of victory – 50% the other team’s scoring margin against everybody else.  After 28 points, additional points are only counted half up to 42.  Thus, the best a team can do for a given game is 38.5 points (a 6 touchdown win on the road).  So theoretically the best possible score is 77 (win all your games by 42 points against teams who beat their other opponents on the road by 42).  With that sort of scale in mind, the week 3 rundown:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Steelers 3 0 0 32.667 17.417 1 1
2 Falcons 2 1 0 21.625 9.958 2 2
3 Packers 2 1 0 19.458 6.792 4 4
4 Titans 2 1 0 18.375 5.208 6 9
5 Jets 2 1 0 15.417 7.25 3 8
6 Bears 3 0 0 12.667 6.5 5 13
7 Colts 2 1 0 11.667 0 21 6
8 Chiefs 3 0 0 10.167 -1 27 5
9 Eagles 2 1 0 9.417 0.167 20 9
10 Chargers 1 2 0 9.333 3.333 11 7
11 Ravens 2 1 0 8.333 5 7 17
12 Texans 2 1 0 5.417 4.583 9 3
13 Cowboys 1 2 0 4.5 1.833 13 22
14 Patriots 2 1 0 4.417 0.583 16 16
15 Seahawks 2 1 0 3.417 -2.75 30 19
16 Vikings 1 2 0 2.75 -0.083 23 14
17 Saints 2 1 0 2.75 -0.083 23 26
18 Dolphins 2 1 0 2.25 -0.417 25 23
19 Browns 0 3 0 2.083 3.75 10 11
20 Bengals 2 1 0 1.417 -2.25 29 25
21 Broncos 1 2 0 0.333 0.5 17 12
22 Lions 0 3 0 -0.125 4.875 8 20
23 Redskins 1 2 0 -1.833 0.667 15 18
24 Rams 1 2 0 -3.542 -7.375 31 32
25 Bucs 2 1 0 -3.583 -1.75 28 15
26 Raiders 1 2 0 -5.208 0.458 18 29
27 Cardinals 2 1 0 -6.917 0 21 27
28 Giants 1 2 0 -8.5 0.333 19 28
29 Bills 0 3 0 -8.667 2.333 12 24
30 49ers 0 3 0 -12.667 1.333 14 30
31 Jaguars 1 2 0 -13.917 -0.75 26 20
32 Panthers 0 3 0 -23 -11.167 32 31

Some observations for the week?

  • The Steelers stay at the top with their win over TB.  Their three opponents have not lost to anyone else.  Right now the defense has carried them – I don’t think Tampa will be a good team for much longer, but the model does not know that.
  • The big leaps of the week go to Dallas and New Orleans.  The latter might be a surprise, but the Falcons become the best team they’ve played, by far – and that combined with the close result lifted the ship quite a bit.
  • On the negative side, the Jaguars 11 spot drop is the worst of the week – a decisive loss combined with losses by previous opponents cause the double whammy.  Bucs felt it also.
  • The Panthers and 49ers remain lousy – though now the Jaguars join them.

The Super Bowl XLIV Fallout and a Way to Help Some Future Spoiled Brats

Posted on by

Some notes from the most surreal, and curiously best played Super Bowls of all time.  Saints 31, Colts 17

  • Cystic Fibrosis is bad.  Curing it is good.  One of my friends is walking for a cure.  You can support her here.  On top of the whole curing cystic fibrosis, she’s a nice person too.  Better supporting her than a more obnoxious spokesmodel, right? (I keed, I keed)
  • This was one of the best super bowls of all time from a cold blooded execution perspective.  A wildly dramatic game this might not make, but really both teams did a good job executing game plans with a couple of notable exceptions.  Both teams were committed to not allowing big plays, so there were almost none of them offensively.  Until late in the game Manning did not get to 10 yards per completion and Drew Brees never did (32-39, but for only 288 yards).  It was a lot of bend but don’t break – a game that demanded patience from both teams, and that’s why the game zipped along.  Lots of accuracy, few penalties and the clock kept moving.
  • Gregg Easterbrook would be proud, as karma rewarded the daring – well daring from a football announcer perspective.  The Saints were thwarted on 4th and goal from the 1-yard line.  But of course the success rate on 4th and 1 is very high – it was the percentage play (much higher expected value than kicking 3 in such a situation) but most coaches are too gutless to do it, especially down 10 in a game where the Colts had all the momentum.  The onsides kick to start the second half which was a game-changer, was also a high percentage play (as long as you do it as a surprise).
  • Peyton Manning was excellent – the pick six that sealed the game was him getting fooled a bit on a zone that was well disguised, but Reggie Wayne forgot to compete for the ball.  He let the defender get over him and killed them.  Manning was blocked illegally on the return, but it’s also a call nobody makes.
  • The Saints were a great story.  I will not rehash it.  Indeed, it was an upset and a good story for the city.  Between the two cities participating in the Super Bowl, clearly the more fun, liveable city won.  (ok, unless your last name is Unser or Mears or Foyt)
  • Super Bowl ads were ok.  The most memorable to me was the Late Show with David Letterman ad with Jay Leno and the Coca-Cola ad with the Simpsons.  Imagine that, primary properties of rival networks getting on the broadcast.  Tres weird.  The Boost mobile shuffle was kind of brilliant, and of course, anything involving Bud Light is a safe bet.  Of course, this is without mentioning MiniKiss (or is it TinyKiss).
  • I missed the Who’s halftime performance.  My friend reports Roger Daltrey cannot sing anymore.  I have no reason to think otherwise.

Super Bowl XLIV

Posted on by

After two weeks of hype, and a large pretend football game in the middle, we arrive at the Super Bowl.  I withheld my pick initially, mainly because of the length of time, but finally, a last minute breakdown:

  • Neither team is especially good at defense from a yards stifling perspective.  Both defenses are excellent at front running, fast, get some good pressure and do a good job preventing points.  The Colts might be a bit more versatile.  The Vikings pushed around the Saints for large parts of the NFC title game.  The Jets top ranked running game was stifled almost entirely.
  • Both teams are excellent offensively but with completely different MOs.  The Saints use all sorts of formation and personnel variety – lots of zany formations and weird looks.  They will supply the Colts looks that they have not used yet this season.  The Colts are the most vanilla offense in the league.  Base personnel, just trips all day long.  Very little motion, the route combinations are so predictable, but they win with execution and Manning’s sight adjustments.  Great chess match.
  • The Colts seem to be able to adjust to anything thrown at them, and that is a credit to Manning.  The Jets stifled the Colts for 1.5 quarters, but the Colts suddenly figured it out and became unstoppable.  The Saints we are less sure.  The Saints run the ball better, but the Colts seem to get yards when they must.

I am rooting hard for the Saints, but I cannot construct a win scenario in my mind.  Colts has to be the brain prediction: Colts 34, Saints 24