Tag Archives: San Antonio

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2012 NBA Playoffs: Conference Finals Preview

And then there were four.  After the Boston Celtics’ glorious though kind of unwatchable Game 7 win, we are left with 4 of the league’s 7 best teams and three of the top four.  Of course this is no surprise given the NBA playoffs spectacular ability to identify the best team – you end up with precious few true surprises.  So with a fairly chalky Final Four, how will this shake out?

Eastern Conference Finals: Miami Heat (4th overall, 6th offense, 4th defense) vs Boston Celtics (7th overall, 24th offense, 1st defense)

Wow, Avery Bradley’s loss is huge.  Given how incompetent he looked for a year and half of his career, this is kind of incredible.  Indeed, as John Hollinger pointed out, even with a rough shooting postseason, Bradley led the Celtics in +/-.  If you remember his sensational block on Dwayne Wade in their regular season encounters – then you can see how Bradley’s loss coupled with Wade’s amazing last couple games in the Indiana series portend to something scary for Boston.  Considering how horrible their offense has been, the Celtics need to lean on their defense and without Bradley that will be hard.  Sure, Chris Bosh’s injury is a slow healer and a high risk one – he won’t be 100% – but LeBron and Wade are clicking so easily now that it is hard to envision the shorthanded Celtics being more than a bug on a windshield.  Heat in 5

Western Conference Finals: San Antonio Spurs (2nd overall, 1st offense, 10th defense) vs Oklahoma City Thunder (3rd overall, 2nd offense, 8th defense)

The Spurs, with Parker and when not punting games to rest their old guys have won 43 of their last 47 games.  This is obviously phenomenal.  They have had blowouts down the stretch against all of their peers, including Oklahoma City.  However, the Thunder’s body of work is a little better than the Spurs with a slightly better defense.  However, San Antonio’s defense has hunkered down in the postseason – and you’d like to think that Duncan and Splitter mean a tougher interior D than Ibaka – who can block shots but not so much at position defense.  Can the Thunder stop the Spurs’ pick and roll?  It is hard to envision, given how the Spurs can spread you out so completely.  In contrast, the Thunder’s offensive prowess is built into individual ability more than a passing and motion attack.  Harden vs Ginobli, Parker vs Westbrook.  The Thunder thrive on winning 1-on-1 battles, but can they win enough here to hang with the Spurs?  Despite Durant’s brilliance – I just don’t see it.  It is going to be a hell of a series though.  Spurs in 6

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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #10 – Final Report and Playoff Preview

First as you have probably seen from the last couple of entries, people still have Cystic Fibrosis – blah blah blah – click here to help …

FINALLY.  The best of the playoff seasons is upon us.  Of course this was after a truly execrable last couple of weeks of the season where teams were playing scrubs shamelessly while still charging full prices.  The Tuesday Celtics-Heat game was a particular atrocity.  So the rankings could be skewed a tiny bit.  But whatever, the playoffs are here and looks at the series are coming up … how have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (2) Bulls (50-16)
  2. (4) Spurs (50-16)
  3. (1) Thunder (47-19)
  4. (3) Heat (46-20)
  5. (5) Sixers (35-31)
  6. (10) Nugggets (38-28)
  7. (6) Celtics (39-27)
  8. (8) Hawks (40-26)
  9. (7) Grizzlies (41-25)
  10. (15) Clippers (40-26)
  11. (13) Mavericks (36-30)
  12. (9) Lakers (41-25)
  13. (14) Knicks (36-30)
  14. (16) Pacers (42-24)
  15. (11) Magic (37-29)
  16. (12) Rockets (34-32)
  17. (18) Suns (33-33)
  18. (20) Jazz (36-30)
  19. (19) Bucks (31-35)
  20. (17) Blazers (28-38)
  21. (21) Timberwolves (26-40)
  22. (22) Warriors (23-43)
  23. (24) Hornets (21-45)
  24. (23) Raptors (23-43)
  25. (25) Kings (22-44)
  26. (29) Wizards (20-46)
  27. (27) Pistons (25-42)
  28. (28) Nets (22-44)
  29. (26) Wizards (21-45)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-59)

It’s the playoffs!  So – quick looks at your first round series are in order:

  • (E1) Bulls v (E8) Sixers – This is #1 vs #5.  What a matchup!  However, the Sixers have really stumbled down the stretch, but the metrics have been strong as the Sixers blowouts early still have resonance.  The Bulls with Derrick Rose’s dicey injury situation could be great – but they could be tricky.  Defense will be the order of the day (#2 v #3) and neither team is great from outside.  I can’t imagine the Bulls losing this but the Sixers match up well with them, better than they do with the Heat.  Bulls in 7
  • (E4) Celtics v (E5) Hawks – #7 vs #8.  Interestingly here the lower seed has home court.  The Celtics have been very strong down the stretch.  But so have the Hawks, both in the Top 6 since the trade deadline.  The Celtics have serious issues with rebounding and size, but the Hawks are 26th in offensive rebounding, so it is hard to read that as a huge edge.  The games have all been close in their head to head.  Really more of a coin flip than the experts purport.  Hawks in 7
  • (E2) Heat v (E7) Knicks – #4 vs #13 Fun series with two defensively adept teams.  Anthony and LeBron will be a great matchup and the Novak/Smith bench for the Knicks could explode.  But it is hard to envision the Knicks winning in Miami.  This is a fun series but Heat in 6
  • (E3) Pacers v (E6) Magic – The Pacers have the 5th best record in the league but merely #14 in rankings.  This describes the Pacers in general – a nice team, lot of good players, but is this the juice to win a playoff series?  The Magic will be motivated with no Dwight Howard and “nobody believing in them”. Did the Pacers more competitive than it seemed result vs Chicago last year inform them or will the Magic’s winning experience do it?  Without Glen Davis, the Magic just don’t have enough players now – good or otherwise.  Pacers in 5
  • (W1) Spurs v (W8) Jazz – Spurs can flat out score, but the Jazz can attack with size.  Will the Spurs lose in round 1 again?  Frankly I’d have more faith in the Jazz if their defense was not so mediocre.  Against the buzz saw offense of San Antonio it is tough sledding.  Spurs in 5
  • (W4) Grizzlies v (W5) Clippers – Grizzlies are a sexy pick to upset the apple cart.  However this is not last year’s Zach Randolph.  Meanwhile the Clippers just have more better players and one of the game’s best all around players and leaders.  Look how the Hornets stole 2 games against the Lakers with Chris Paul and nobody – he is just that good.  In the playoffs, the stars play more.  Lob City is not done yet.  Clippers in 6
  • (W2) Thunder v (W7) Mavericks – Hard series to peg.  On paper, Thunder should rip through this.  In actuality, Dallas can throw a lot of junk D at them and make the Thunder really work for it.  But it won’t be enough.  Thunder in 7
  • (W3) Lakers v (W6) Nuggets – Denver has depth.  The Lakers don’t.  Denver has speed, and the Lakers have real issues with that.  But the Lakers have all the really good players here and their size and ability to dictate in the half court.  I hope Denver can make this fun.  I think the Lakers grind it out enough.  Lakers in 6
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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #6

With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (2) Heat (25-7)
  2. (4) Thunder (25-7)
  3. (1) Bulls (26-8)
  4. (3) Sixers (20-12)
  5. (5) Spurs (23-9)
  6. (9) Mavericks (20-12)
  7. (6) Hawks (19-13)
  8. (8) Nuggets (18-15)
  9. (7) Blazers (17-16)
  10. (10) Lakers (19-13)
  11. (15) Magic (21-12)
  12. (11) Clippers (19-11)
  13. (13) Rockets (19-14)
  14. (16) Grizzlies (18-15)
  15. (14) Pacers (19-12)
  16. (12) Celtics (15-16)
  17. (17) Timberwolves (16-17)
  18. (19) Warriors (12-17)
  19. (18) Jazz (15-16)
  20. (20) Bucks (13-20)
  21. (22) Suns (14-19)
  22. (21) Knicks (16-17)
  23. (24) Hornets (7-24)
  24. (23) Cavaliers (12-17)
  25. (25) Raptors (9-23)
  26. (26) Kings (10-21)
  27. (28) Nets (10-24)
  28. (29) Pistons (11-22)
  29. (27) Wizards (7-25)
  30. (30) Bobcats (4-27)

Some notes:

  1. Who is that masked man at #4.  As Jim Ross might say, MY GAWD!!!  IT’S THE SAN ANTONIO SPURS!!  Somehow or another, they are a factor again – rising all the way up to the lofty #5 position.  Of course this should not be surprising us anymore – the Spurs decade long run of contendorhood is pretty amazing.  What is more interesting though is how stereotypes tend to work.  If you dismiss the Spurs – or just don’t think of them – you might lean on what you remember from 2003 and 2007 as to who they are – withering defense and Tim Duncan.  However, this team – assembling so many wins against a good schedule – is actually not a good defensive team.  It is weird to say that the Spurs are an offensive team – and certainly their below average pace hides the explosiveness – but this is a team that wins by scoring (6th on offense).  In particular, they win because they can shoot – 4th in total FG%, 3rd best three point percentage while making the 5th most (per possession) – it carries them to the 5th best true shooting team in the league.  The shot generation is average – they don’t recover many of their few misses, but they hardly turn it over so they are getting a solid number of looks.  On defense, they actually resemble the 2007 Suns more than the 2007 Spurs, where their real strength is not fouling (tops in the league), allowing the 8th fewest makes from 3 and 2nd in the league in defensive rebounding.  They force a lot of 2 point shots and recover misses – which allows their defense to be meh (instead of bad).
  2. And while we get a view of the top with the Spurs, let’s go down low and appreciate the awesome level of badness that is the Charlotte Bobcats.  At 4-27, the record is pristine to be sure.  They are on pace to win more than the 9-73 rate the 1973 Sixers team did.  Indeed, I expect some winning to pick up as Gerald Henderson returns and the other teams start to care less and focus on playoff positioning.  This is all crap we know.  In the same vein, the Bobcats are currently rating a staggering -10.7 points.  Let’s put it this way, the Wizards – also terrible at 7-25, would be nearly 5 point favorites – it’s really that bad.  The Bobcats lack of talent is obvious – seriously if Kemba Walker is your beacon of hope (Walker is a nice prospect – but a Vinnie Johnson upside) what can you say?  Obviously the Bobcats are the worst offense in the league, alternating poor shooting with poor offensive rebounding.  They are the worst at making shots they get, and 23rd in getting shots of any kind.  What is a surprise to a degree though is defensively they are also pretty terrible, allowing the 28th best FG% overall and being 2nd from the bottom in forcing turnovers along with a desultory 24th in rebounding.  Really the team is just bad in an admirably consistent way.  Even the Timberwolves of last year for instance, estimably awful, but capable at recovering misses.  Charlotte can’t even do that right.
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2011 NBA Preview – The Dirty Dozen

Six hours and 10 minutes to go before the store opens for the 2011 season.  12 teams left to countdown.  At this point, we are left with all teams that have a more than theoretical chance to win it all, although certainly a lot has to go right for some of the entries.  The flotsam, is passed:

12. Houston Rockets (16th overall in 2010, 19th offense, 17th defense)

Yao is back, albeit in a highly controlled role.  Kevin Martin, almost as brittle, gives them the best shooting guard they’ve had since Tracy McGrady was still alive.  Last year Rick Adelman used smoke and mirrors to keep them in the playoffs.  Luis Scola is a very good complimentary player – they have a very deep lineup.  Really, this is a team that could make a huge run, if Yao can hold up and if he can become a serious contributor late in the season.  Big ifs, so I will leave them here out of respect for Adelman and the talent Darryl Morey has assembled.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Yao and Kevin Martin give them the dynamic duo – and a healthy dynamic duo at that.

11. Milwaukee Bucks (15th overall in 2010, 23rd offense, 3rd defense)

They won last year with Brandon Jennings youth, Andrew Bogut making a mini-Leap, and the 3rd best defense in the league.  In particular, they forced turnovers at a high rate while being the best team in the league at not committing fouls.  This elevated them from their good but not awesome first shot defense into elite territory.  But their 23rd ranked offense needs to improve.  Enter Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette, offensively gifted forwards.  Chris Douglas-Roberts gives some wing options to that end.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Brandon Jennings is as good as his first season hinted, Andrew Bogut is healthy, their defense stays strong while Maggette, one of the game’s most efficient scorers, can bring their offense up.

10. Chicago Bulls (18th overall in 2010, 28th offense, 11th defense)

He will not be healthy to start the season, but Carlos Boozer portends to give the Bulls the low post scorer they have yearned for.  With him and Joakim Noah, they now have a frontcourt to compete with the East’s best.  Derrick Rose is growing, and his work for Team USA portended well.  This was a bad offensive team, particularly deficient at just shooting the ball.  Carlos Boozer will help this along – even if the Bulls were aiming for a bigger prize.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Their defense is as solid as it was by the end of last year, Derrick Rose makes the leap and Carlos Boozer provides that post presence they need to win playoff games.

9. Dallas Mavericks (12th overall in 2010, 10th offense, 12th defense)

It feels like we could write the same blurb about this team for the last 5 years.  Dirk is a GREAT player, and his cast is solid but old.  They are coached well largely, though it has not always manifested in the playoffs.  It feels like this lineup has a finite amount of time together.  All of these sentences applied in 2007, 2008 and apply today.  Rodrique Beaubois could be a terrific spark as a combo guard, and Tyson Chandler is a terrific pickup as a defensive big and usable contract.  But really where is the upside here?

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Dirk is 2006-2007 Dirk, Caron Butler is 2008 Caron Butler and Jason Kidd in 2003 Jason Kidd.  Honestly this seems like a stuck outfit.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder (6th overall in 2010, 11th offense, 7th defense)

What???  America’s sweethearts are all the way down here?  Let’s be real.  They were abnormally healthy a year ago.  They play in a brutal division.  The question is whether they make the elite leap now or next year.  Honestly, this is guessing.  Durant is going to be an MVP favorite as he should be, and Russell Westbrook is fringe all-NBA.  That is real.  They will be better than they were last year, but it might not reflect in the standings.  This is a fascinating division.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Durant and the kiddies are all growns up!

7.  Portland TrailBlazers (11th overall in 2010, 7th offense, 13th defense)

This is a very interesting team.  The Thunder burst into our consciousness last season.  The Blazers, with a similar assemblage of talent and growth curve, suffered a comically rash level of injury yet won 50 games.  They have the sheer amount of size to give the Lakers trouble – the length the Jazz lacked.  However, is the health just a glitch or a real problem?  They spent too much money on Wesley Matthews, although he is a fit for what they want to do.  This might be the season for them to make The Leap.  Andre Miller is a good trade asset, as he and Roy are a poor basketball fit.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Greg Oden gets healthy and develops.  Brandon Roy stays healthy.  The young talent just grows up.

6. Utah Jazz (5th overall in 2010, 8th offense, 10th defense)

The Jazz cannot beat the Lakers.  They were not long enough last year.  They aren’t long enough now.  They lost Boozer, but fleeced Minnesota for Al Jefferson who is a more than capable replacement.  They lost Wesley Matthews and Kyle Korver, but Gordon Hayward might be better than either by the end of the season.  Deron Williams is a great PG and Jerry Sloan is a great coach.  This team cannot beat the Lakers but they can beat anybody else.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: The Lakers suffer a fatal incommunicable illness.

5. San Antonio Spurs (4th overall in 2010, 9th offense, 9th defense)

The Spurs are on the downside.  But Manu Ginobli had a career year of sorts, and Tony Parker is playing for a contract.  Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair give them a real chance to keep Duncan’s minutes even more controlled.  The pieces are there for another big run – though it will take some help.  After all, they finished 4th last year!  The problem though is that their defense has slipped from the elite levels of their title years, and their offense is a little less efficient than it used to be.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Duncan, Ginobli and Parker go in the wayback machine a little bit … and their defense gets back towards the 2007 standard.

4. Miami Heat (13th overall in 2010, 18th offense, 4th defense)

Obviously they will be better – I don’t think we need to go over why.  In fact on the wing they will be magical, and Chris Bosh is an elite big, although not a great strength big.  They have a lot of bigs – but very little quality outside of Bosh, though Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony are good team sorts.  They will have trouble defending elite size, and teams that have that can beat them in a short series.  They might win the regular season derby – but teams that can pound them inside could very well beat them.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They can defend real size.

3. Orlando Magic (1st overall in 2010, 2nd offense, 1st defense)

HERE is real size.  The Magic are a great defensive team.  Their depth is spectacular with a second five (Duhon, Anderson, Bass, Gortat, Williams) that could win 20 game in the NBA.  Their size on the wings can at least present some resistance against the Heat’s wing elegance.  If a team cannot handle Dwight Howard with single coverage, that opens up their 3 point attack and they become very very hard to stop.  But if Howard is defended 1 on 1, look out.  They will be active looking for an impact guy via trade.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Dwight Howard becomes seriously unguardable.

2. Boston Celtics (9th overall in 2010, 12th offense, 6th defense)

The Celtics can guard Howard 1 on 1.  That has driven the Magic crazy matchup-wise.  The Celtics rank was low in 2010, but they took care to avoid injury and sacrified playoff positions.  But their defense is elite, and with Garnett being healthier, and all the size they signed in the offseason the Celtics have the chance to be much more rugged than they were last year.  Rondo made The Leap last year, this team just has to manage minutes and be strong.  They might not beat the Heat or Magic, but there is no reason to start with that assumption.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They win one more game.

Los Angeles Lakers (7th overall in 2010, 13th offense, 5th defense)

The Lakers won the title last year, with so much wrong.  Andrew Bynum was hurt so much (as usual), Derek Fisher was HORRIBLE at the point and Kobe Bryant was ailing.  Like the Celtics, the Lakers bet on health over wins in the second half of the year and it worked.  The West has a lot of good teams, but none remotely as good.  This breaks my heart to type, I cannot emphasize enough.  No team can match up with so many styles, and the length they have up front makes them an elite team.  They are a rugged strength team and it is hard to envision a team overpowering them.  Witness the Celtics’ moves in the offseason – it was clearly with this in mind.



 

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NBA Playoffs Round 2 Picks

Well, this is hardly revelation. Indeed, two of the series are already underway with the Lakers and the Cavaliers each taking 1-0 leads. Fortunately I was not picking the Celtics or the Jazz to sweep, so no biggie. So the series (rankings based on final rankings):

Cavaliers (2) vs Celtics (10):  To their credit, the Celtics will not be scared.  Of course this is a rematch of a 2nd round series from 2007-2008 when the Celtics beat the Cavs in a series where nobody won on the road.  This time, the Celtics NEED to win in Cleveland.  Alas, they have blown leads all season and their defense, 6th in the league, has wavered at times when they’ve needed big results.  Cavs athleticism is a real problem.  Celts must stop the Cavs 3 – and Rondo has to dominate.  Cavs in 5

Magic (1) vs Hawks (8): In Round 1, Magic played the Bobcats – 2 stout defenses with only one good offensive team – hence a Magic sweep.  Now, two of the league’s best offenses but this time the Magic have the far superior defense.  The Hawks have struggled in head to head matchups, and the Magic depth and quality is hard to top.  Both teams are very efficient on offense without being great assist teams – Magic take high level shots, Hawks offensively rebound.  Really I don’t see how the Hawks win.  Magic in 5

Lakers (7) vs Jazz (5):  Kirilenko has to play.  The Jazz showed to be a lousy defense in round 1 against Denver.  However, Denver was lousier and the Jazz scored at will.  The Lakers size and length are a tough matchup for the Jazz’ bigs.  Without Kirilenko the Jazz must win this on offense, which they are solid at.  However, the Lakers defense, with Bynum is outstanding.  There is a reason the Jazz have had trouble winning.  However, the Lakers did not look great against the Thunder.  They really are vulnerable.  The offense has been pedestrian, or streaky at the very least.  This could be a good series.  Lakers in 7

Suns (3) vs Spurs (4):  What a history these teams have.  Granted, the Spurs have had the better of it, but such a style matchup.  The Spurs are much more offensive minded now than back in the day.  I mean then the offense was efficient, but now their offense is more important, as their defense is not “great” anymore at a mere 9th.  The Suns are wonderful offensively, and they did very well in head to head this season.  They came off of a good series against a feisty Portland team, giving them 3 of their 4 worst losses of the season.  If Suns can manage the size, they should finally break through this time.  Suns in 6

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The Final Power Rankings and First Round Picks

Process here. Rankings there:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Magic 59 23 104.631 (2) 96.214 (1) 1.75 3.166 (30) 13.333
2 Cavaliers 61 21 104.39 (3) 97.272 (8) 1.75 3.173 (29) 12.041
3 Suns 54 28 107.908 (1) 102.168 (19) 1.75 3.276 (25) 10.766
4 Spurs 50 32 102.717 (9) 97.59 (9) 1.75 3.532 (17) 10.41
5 Jazz 53 29 103.122 (8) 98.527 (10) 1.75 3.586 (13) 9.93
6 Thunder 50 32 101.459 (11) 97.188 (7) 1.75 3.584 (14) 9.604
7 Lakers 57 25 101.152 (13) 97.091 (5) 1.75 3.658 (10) 9.47
8 Hawks 53 29 104.132 (4) 100.085 (15) 1.75 3.381 (23) 9.178
9 Nuggets 53 29 103.777 (6) 100.105 (16) 1.75 3.63 (12) 9.051
10 Celtics 50 32 101.165 (12) 97.178 (6) 1.75 3.258 (27) 8.995
11 Blazers 50 32 103.569 (7) 99.894 (13) 1.75 3.415 (21) 8.84
12 Mavericks 55 27 102.457 (10) 98.973 (12) 1.75 3.472 (20) 8.706
13 Heat 47 35 100.305 (18) 96.849 (4) 1.75 3.219 (28) 8.426
14 Bobcats 44 38 97.408 (24) 96.389 (2) 1.75 3.411 (22) 6.18
15 Bucks 46 36 97.553 (23) 96.462 (3) 1.75 3.258 (26) 6.098
16 Rockets 42 40 100.13 (19) 100.907 (17) 1.75 3.928 (2) 4.901
17 Raptors 40 42 103.869 (5) 104.906 (30) 1.75 3.499 (18) 4.211
18 Bulls 41 41 96.563 (28) 98.573 (11) 1.75 3.568 (15) 3.308
19 Hornets 37 45 100.59 (16) 102.895 (22) 1.75 3.741 (7) 3.187
20 Grizzlies 40 42 100.398 (17) 102.932 (23) 1.75 3.739 (8) 2.955
21 Pacers 32 50 97.062 (26) 99.996 (14) 1.75 3.473 (19) 2.288
22 Warriors 26 56 100.65 (14) 104.321 (28) 1.75 3.897 (3) 1.977
23 Kings 25 57 98.103 (22) 102.032 (18) 1.75 3.868 (4) 1.689
24 Knicks 29 53 100.646 (15) 104.386 (29) 1.75 3.346 (24) 1.355
25 Sixers 27 55 99.066 (20) 103.097 (24) 1.75 3.546 (16) 1.265
26 Wizards 26 56 97.101 (25) 102.302 (20) 1.75 3.633 (11) 0.183
27 Clippers 29 53 96.693 (27) 102.357 (21) 1.75 3.866 (5) -0.048
28 Pistons 27 55 98.198 (21) 104.067 (26) 1.75 3.68 (9) -0.439
29 Timberwolves 15 67 94.652 (29) 104.233 (27) 1.75 4.111 (1) -3.719
30 Nets 12 70 94.115 (30) 103.745 (25) 1.75 3.786 (6) -4.094

A key caveat: With the last month being tanking/amateur hour and good teams being judicious with managing players – I suspect the Lakers and Cavaliers are undervalued. That said, still revealing as we get to the end:

  • The Magic have been the best team the second half of the year.  Took the season for Vince Carter to get integrated, and their defense was lazy earlier in the season.  However, back at #1, just like last year.  Their #2 offense is hard to say has dropped off at all.
  • The Cavaliers got off slow too, but rolled down the stretch save for preserving LeBron a bit.
  • Lakers really staggered to the finish.  They seemed to be shoo-ins for the best record for a while.  They can still right the ship, but with a scant 9 games separating the #1 and $#8 seed in the West who knows?

Now for some quick picks for the first round (power ranking in parens) …

EAST:

Cavaliers (2) vs Bulls (18): Bulls played hard down the stretch, Rose is a terrific PG.  But Cavs defend the position well, and there is LeBron.  Cavs in 5

Celtics (10) vs Heat (13): Celtics after a 27-5 start, are a 23-27 team.  This is not a good team right now, though they have played in stretches.  Wade the best player on the floor.  Heat playing better D than Boston, but it’s a toss up.  Celtics in 7

Magic (1) vs Bobcats (14): Top 2 defenses in the league.  Alas the Magic have offensive skill.  Magic in 5.

Hawks (8) vs Bucks (15):  Hawks have been metsa metsa since a fast start.  However, their efficient size-based offense has been there all year.  Bucks are scrappy, tough defensively, but without Bogut the size match is too problematic.  Hawks in 6

WEST:

Lakers (7) vs Thunder (6): You read that right.  Thunder have the better body of work in terms of indicators even with 9 less wins.  Durant is a prime time scorer.  They are a good defensive club (7th).  The Lakers were the top defensive team when healthy though, and the wins and home court count for something.  If Kobe is ready and effective, they should advance.  But the Thunder will not be pushovers.  Lakers in 6

Nuggets (9) vs Jazz (5): Another upside down series.  Jazz hurt themselves badly slipping out of the home court position by getting whomped by Phoenix.  They have played better basketball than Denver all season, but Denver is still better against good teams (5th, Utah 11th).  And with home court, and Utah with an iffy Boozer, they get the edge despite their own myriad of issues.  Nuggets in 7

Mavericks (12) vs Spurs (4): Mavericks have been close game kings all season.  The Spurs have outpaced them in fundamentals most of the season.  Does this mean they will win?  Not sure.  Dallas won in 5 last year and the matchups favor them in a lot of places.  That said Manu is healthy, and we have not had that for a while.  Spurs in 6

Suns (3) vs Blazers (11):  Love this series.  Lots of matchups up front (Amare vs Aldridge), at the point (Nash vs Miller), subplots (Suns vs the slowest paced team in the game … will Roy be effective).  Suns have been the big overachievers in the league this season – their last two wins have been special.  They are as good offensively as ever.  Can they defend the paint though.  This could go any direction, but I just don’t think the Blazers have the offense without Roy at 90%.  Suns in 7

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NBA Trade Deadline – The Final Rush

Well, after much speculation about whether it would be quiet or not – we got a real hoppin trade deadline after all!  So, as a follow up to two other posts on the topic, the final deals:

  • Bucks get Royal Ivey, Primoz Brezec and a 2010 2nd Rounder, Sixers get Jodie Meeks and Francisco Elson

Elson is a classic buyout candidate.  Useful big, solid defender, few other recognizable basketball skills.  Jodie Meeks has not shot lights out yet at the pro level, but for anyone who saw him score 54 against Tennessee, we know the kid can stroke it.  Sixers have been a lousy shooting team for years – they could use all the help they get.  The Bucks get a solid backup PG whom they are familiar with and a second round pick – which should be in the mid 30s, this year.  In other words, a deal that made sense for everyone, even if it is low profile.

  • Grizzlies get Ronnie Brewer, Jazz get protected 1st Rounder in 2011.

Jazz do not NEED Ronnie Brewer.  That said Brewer is an excellent defender and good efficient player even if he is not a good shooter.  He was good enough to start for a title contender.  The Jazz probably did not hurt themselves that much, but making a money dump when they are a legit Top 4 team in the West is a letdown.  The Grizzlies get themselves a legit rotation player and capable 6th man for what could be an outside the lottery 2011 draft pick.  Hard to get revved up about the Jazz philosophy here.

  • Kings get Dominc McGuire, Wizards get $$ and a conditional 2nd Rounder

Not much to say here.  Wizards get below the luxury tax line – and thus could keep Ilgauskas the rest of the year, and the Kings get to see a good defensive specialist sort for the rest of the season, no strings attached.  Let’s move on.

  • Bobcats get Theo Ratliff, Spurs get conditional 2nd Rounder

Another straight dump.  Ratliff could make the Bobcats rotation, maybe.  Not sure why I even listed this.

  • Bobcats get Tyrus Thomas, Bulls get Flip Murray, Acie Law and future 1st Rounder

Bulls get something for the perpetually intriguing Tyrus Thomas.  Law could be a useful backup PG, though with Derrick Rose there, it is bit of a Maytag repairman job.  Flip Murray is one dimensional – but a dimension who can catch fire (a poor man’s Eddie House).  The 1st Rounder from what I read could take a while to materialize – no earlier than 2012.  For the Bobcats, Thomas’ talent is undeniable – though he has been a knucklehead and shown the talent only in flashes.  He can walk after the season – for a playoff push, it’s a good free look for Charlotte.

  • Rockets get Jordan Hill, Jared Jeffries, Kevin Martin, Hilton Armstrong, The Knicks 1st Rounder in 2012 (Top 5 protected) and the option to switch picks with the Knicks in 2011 as long as it’s not #1.  The Knicks get Tracy McGrady and Sergio Rodriguez.  The Kings get Carl Landry, Larry Hughes and Joey Dorsey.

A lot to unpack here.  First, the Rockets did exceptionally well.  Kevin Martin is the perimeter guy they needed, and add him to Yao next season, it’s a great place to start.  Jordan Hill did not play in NY, but that does not mean he can’t be a fit in Houston.  Hilton Armstrong sucks, but hey, a big body is a big body.  Depending on what the Knicks do in free agency, the draft picks could have significant value also.

The Knicks did very well, getting Sergio Rodriguez, who has shown tons of ability in Spain, but it has not translated in the NBA.  One’d think he’d be a good fit with Mike D’Antoni.  They also cleared the salary, so suddenly they are in a position to be huge players in free agency next season.  Can they get two max guys?  Probably not, but they will be a lot better quickly.  It came at a cost, but this trade makes sense.

The Kings also did very well.  Kevin Martin is a very good player but not in their long term plans.  So they turned him into cap space and a young starting caliber big in Carl Landry.  Good all around.

  • Celtics get Nate Robinson and Marcus Landry.  Knicks get Eddie House, JR Giddens and Bill Walker

Celtics got a guy who can be an explosive 6th man for a guy who has been an explosive 6th man and 2 guys who don’t play.  Robinson has more skills than House and House has been meh this season.  Knicks get to move more salary and get a guy D’Antoni is fond of.  Overall a small sensible deal for the Celtics, who need to change their team energy.

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Week 15 NBA Power Rankings: All Star Break, Here We Come

Fifteen weeks in the books.  We started with a dominant Celtics team which has been fading ever since, and a Cleveland Cavalier team of disparate parts which has jelled into something potentially very very special.  As always, the methodology is here:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Cavaliers 41 11 104.229 (3) 95.839 (2) 1.817 2.983 (27) 13.19
2 Lakers 40 13 101.999 (11) 96.132 (4) 1.585 3.546 (16) 10.999
3 Magic 35 17 102.04 (10) 96.185 (5) 1.817 3.176 (24) 10.848
4 Celtics 32 17 101.334 (12) 95.465 (1) 1.786 2.912 (29) 10.567
5 Jazz 31 18 102.502 (7) 98.505 (10) 1.5 4.077 (4) 9.573
6 Nuggets 34 17 103.885 (4) 99.291 (14) 1.716 3.173 (25) 9.483
7 Spurs 29 21 102.409 (9) 97.915 (9) 1.47 3.445 (20) 9.409
8 Hawks 32 17 103.765 (5) 99.792 (16) 1.643 3.771 (11) 9.387
9 Thunder 29 21 99.49 (18) 95.916 (3) 1.75 3.795 (9) 9.119
10 Suns 31 21 106.833 (1) 103.476 (28) 1.885 3.576 (15) 8.818
11 Mavericks 32 19 102.411 (8) 99.123 (12) 1.853 3.64 (14) 8.781
12 Blazers 30 23 103.467 (6) 101.042 (18) 1.651 3.781 (10) 7.856
13 Heat 24 27 100.033 (15) 99.002 (11) 1.784 4.081 (3) 6.896
14 Rockets 27 23 99.776 (17) 99.222 (13) 1.75 4.304 (1) 6.608
15 Bobcats 24 25 96.962 (23) 96.354 (6) 1.786 3.94 (5) 6.334
16 Raptors 28 23 104.353 (2) 104.459 (30) 1.784 3.496 (18) 5.175
17 Bucks 23 26 96.934 (24) 97.461 (7) 1.857 3.299 (22) 4.629
18 Hornets 27 25 100.704 (14) 101.93 (21) 1.885 3.194 (23) 3.853
19 Grizzlies 26 24 101.218 (13) 103.3 (27) 1.75 3.858 (7) 3.526
20 Knicks 19 31 99.916 (16) 101.712 (20) 1.61 2.91 (30) 2.724
21 Clippers 21 29 96.889 (25) 99.452 (15) 1.82 3.378 (21) 2.635
22 Bulls 24 25 94.549 (29) 97.774 (8) 1.857 3.871 (6) 2.504
23 Sixers 19 31 99.081 (19) 101.545 (19) 1.82 2.967 (28) 2.323
24 Kings 16 34 99.069 (20) 102.859 (24) 1.75 4.116 (2) 2.077
25 Warriors 13 37 98.797 (21) 103.07 (26) 1.82 3.81 (8) 1.357
26 Wizards 17 32 97.601 (22) 102.301 (23) 1.714 3.532 (17) 0.547
27 Pacers 18 33 95.288 (27) 100.318 (17) 1.784 3.076 (26) -0.17
28 Pistons 17 32 95.924 (26) 102.056 (22) 1.643 3.482 (19) -1.007
29 Timberwolves 13 38 94.656 (28) 102.906 (25) 1.716 3.73 (12) -2.805
30 Nets 4 46 91.7 (30) 103.696 (29) 1.89 3.686 (13) -6.42

Impressions:

  • Only two 40 win teams at this juncture, the two teams we probably expected.  The Lakers were very impressive the last two nights out with Kobe-less wins over the Blazers and Spurs.  I am not sure they have quite rounded into form.  Their #4 defense had that ghastly oopsie against Denver on Friday, although 15-22 from 3 point land might be just incredible bad luck.  One thing worth noting is the raw score.  Despite the record being close to Cleveland, they are honestly closer in rating to 10th place than 1st.
  • Not sure if Cleveland will keep this up and live to its promise of greatness, but it’s getting closer.
  • Spurs are 7th and have the fundamentals of a very good team numerically.  However, their 1.47 Home/Away number is the  lowest in the league, thus the most home-tilted schedule to date.  This portends to possibly slippage – their fortune in close games might hurt their seed, chances to cash in that they whiffed on.
  • Jazz have been the best team in the league since the new year, and the rise to 5th shows.  Really the success has lay in the defense, which is a vast improvement on a year ago, and good enough for an estimable 10th this year.  Add in the tough schedule, albeit a bit home kinked, and presto.
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Week 11 NBA Power Rankings

You can see how the numbers are calculated here.  Last week chronicled the rise to the top of the Cleveland Cavaliers, back to the perch of last year.  The hold has not subsided:

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Cavaliers 30 10 104.122 (4) 95.902 (4) 2.013 2.869 (26) 13.102
2 Celtics 26 10 102.82 (8) 95.11 (2) 1.944 2.756 (29) 12.411
3 Spurs 22 13 104.361 (3) 97.399 (8) 1.3 2.803 (28) 11.065
4 Lakers 29 8 100.689 (14) 94.361 (1) 1.23 3.139 (25) 10.696
5 Magic 25 12 102.486 (9) 96.671 (6) 1.797 2.842 (27) 10.454
6 Suns 24 14 106.937 (1) 102.958 (24) 1.75 4.048 (4) 9.777
7 Hawks 24 13 104.555 (2) 100.028 (18) 1.797 3.4 (20) 9.724
8 Mavericks 25 12 101.457 (11) 97.682 (9) 1.797 3.768 (11) 9.341
9 Thunder 21 16 99.429 (19) 96.125 (5) 1.703 3.745 (12) 8.752
10 Nuggets 24 14 103.855 (5) 99.479 (15) 1.75 2.388 (30) 8.515
11 Blazers 23 16 103.215 (7) 99.975 (17) 1.615 3.438 (19) 8.293
12 Rockets 21 16 99.557 (17) 99.228 (14) 2.081 4.724 (1) 7.133
13 Jazz 21 17 100.707 (13) 99.106 (13) 1.658 3.855 (8) 7.114
14 Heat 18 18 99.672 (16) 98.811 (12) 1.458 4.396 (2) 6.716
15 Clippers 17 18 98.21 (22) 98.474 (11) 1.5 3.5 (18) 4.736
16 Bobcats 16 19 94.549 (26) 95.153 (3) 1.8 3.394 (21) 4.59
17 Raptors 19 20 103.556 (6) 105.173 (30) 1.885 3.838 (9) 4.105
18 Grizzlies 18 18 101.725 (10) 103.453 (28) 1.944 3.795 (10) 4.011
19 Knicks 15 22 99.513 (18) 100.481 (19) 1.703 3.172 (24) 3.906
20 Kings 15 21 101.056 (12) 102.46 (22) 1.556 3.618 (17) 3.769
21 Bucks 15 20 94.818 (25) 96.693 (7) 1.7 3.233 (23) 3.058
22 Hornets 19 17 99.347 (20) 101.799 (20) 1.847 3.62 (16) 3.015
23 Sixers 12 25 99.808 (15) 103.675 (29) 1.892 3.643 (14) 1.668
24 Warriors 11 25 98.855 (21) 103.334 (27) 2.042 4.013 (5) 1.575
25 Bulls 16 20 94.012 (28) 97.827 (10) 1.556 3.663 (13) 1.403
26 Wizards 12 23 97.963 (23) 102.225 (21) 1.9 3.641 (15) 1.279
27 Pacers 12 25 94.49 (27) 99.785 (16) 1.797 3.254 (22) -0.244
28 Pistons 11 25 95.984 (24) 103.015 (25) 1.847 4.052 (3) -1.132
29 Timberwolves 8 31 93.195 (29) 102.599 (23) 1.705 3.934 (7) -3.765
30 Nets 3 34 91.11 (30) 103.172 (26) 1.892 3.981 (6) -6.19

As for what jumps out …

  • Suddenly, the Top 5 is the Top 5 everyone guessed coming into the season.  That said, the records are striking.  The Cavaliers went 65-17 last year.  They are 30-10 now.  Given their 26th ranked schedule, there is still work to do, so is a 35-7 finish realistic?  A 60 win team might not emerge.  The middle of the league has grown a lot.
  • The Pistons as of 2008 made 6 straight conference finals.  Now at 11-25, soft, spending their cap room on two rotation players (but certainly not game changers) … if the Wizards need to blow everything up, what’s the deal here?
  • The Spurs at #3 are a surprise.  They are surging, but they have done it against a pretty soft schedule lately.  This might turn around especially with the road trip from hell coming up in February (the annual rodeo thing).
  • The Grizzlies would be a 5 seed in the East.  Yuck.
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Week 10 NBA Power Rankings

As always, you can find the methodology here.  With the Celtics injury troubles, the hold on #1 started to feel tenuous, and indeed … well, let’s look

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Cavaliers 27 9 103.27 (6) 95.246 (4) 1.944 2.89 (28) 12.858
2 Celtics 24 8 102.606 (8) 93.993 (1) 1.859 2.226 (30) 12.699
3 Spurs 20 12 103.879 (3) 97.09 (8) 1.422 2.917 (27) 11.128
4 Lakers 27 6 101.395 (11) 94.397 (2) 1.167 2.932 (26) 11.096
5 Magic 24 9 102.677 (7) 96.64 (6) 1.803 2.932 (25) 10.773
6 Hawks 21 12 104.747 (2) 99.831 (18) 1.803 3.193 (22) 9.911
7 Mavericks 23 11 101.003 (13) 96.687 (7) 1.853 3.726 (14) 9.894
8 Suns 21 13 107.392 (1) 103.568 (27) 1.853 4.145 (3) 9.822
9 Nuggets 21 13 103.877 (4) 99.215 (15) 1.853 2.366 (29) 8.88
10 Thunder 19 15 99.241 (19) 96.423 (5) 1.853 4.029 (9) 8.701
11 Blazers 22 14 102.336 (10) 98.728 (12) 1.75 3.076 (23) 8.435
12 Heat 17 15 100.367 (14) 98.21 (11) 1.313 4.126 (5) 7.595
13 Rockets 20 14 99.667 (16) 99.05 (13) 2.059 4.529 (1) 7.205
14 Jazz 18 16 99.457 (18) 99.738 (16) 1.647 3.872 (12) 5.238
15 Bobcats 14 18 94.324 (27) 94.944 (3) 1.859 3.665 (15) 4.904
16 Grizzlies 16 16 102.557 (9) 103.622 (28) 1.859 3.555 (17) 4.35
17 Knicks 14 20 99.834 (15) 100.26 (19) 1.647 2.989 (24) 4.21
18 Raptors 17 18 103.641 (5) 105.305 (30) 1.8 3.934 (11) 4.07
19 Clippers 15 18 98.14 (21) 99.128 (14) 1.591 3.317 (20) 3.92
20 Kings 14 19 101.041 (12) 102.702 (23) 1.591 3.449 (19) 3.379
21 Bucks 13 18 95.129 (25) 97.378 (9) 1.581 3.462 (18) 2.793
22 Hornets 16 16 98.408 (20) 101.811 (22) 1.75 4.1 (6) 2.447
23 Wizards 10 21 97.255 (23) 101.074 (20) 1.919 3.564 (16) 1.664
24 Sixers 10 23 99.525 (17) 104.275 (29) 2.015 4.066 (7) 1.331
25 Warriors 9 23 98.009 (22) 103.287 (26) 2.078 4.136 (4) 0.937
26 Pistons 11 21 96.362 (24) 101.564 (21) 1.75 3.97 (10) 0.518
27 Bulls 14 18 92.631 (29) 97.969 (10) 1.531 4.301 (2) 0.494
28 Pacers 10 23 94.398 (26) 99.797 (17) 1.803 3.263 (21) -0.333
29 Timberwolves 7 28 92.848 (28) 102.811 (25) 1.7 4.058 (8) -4.206
30 Nets 3 30 91.001 (30) 102.763 (24) 1.803 3.858 (13) -6.101

Some reactions:

  • With the holiday murder spree the Cavaliers went on, that they would eventually pass the Celtics started to seem inevitable.  Most notably the defense, which had been an okay I guess 10th in Week 4 has surged all the way to 4th.  With that the point differential has gone with it as the offense has been solid the whole way – mostly due to the league’s 2nd best three point %
  • The Celtics have been hit with the injury bug.  Heck look at the lineup they fielded to beat Toronto!  They will have a hard time reclaiming #1 in the short run.
  • The Nets, 3-30 … 9-73 still seems safe because the sheer amount of bad luck required – but hoo boy.
  • The Grizzlies are 16-16!  Let that sink in.  They are not doing it with defense clearly – but their offense is quite good, augmented by a combination of good shooting (5th in FG%) and the ability to recover misses (#1 in offensive rebounding).
  • The Spurs are #3.  Somehow, insidiously, they rise.