Tag Archives: Sixers

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Dare to be Stupid: The Dwight Howard Trade

Let’s start with one thing.  I don’t know what offers the Orlando Magic actually had here.  Were they really poring through various offers of other teams’ trash?  Was this really some Building 19 special we were dealing with?  It all seems terribly weird for the league’s 2nd best player.  Yeah yeah yeah, it is chic to say that Kevin Durant is the league’s best non-LeBron James player, but Dwight Howard’s total impact on both sides of the floor (as well as the general VORP factors associated with centers) is too hard to ignore.  So, lapsing into Hubie Brown’s cadence, you have the 2nd best player in the league – one who could be a free agent after this season, what is he worth?

We know that Houston amassed trade assets by the boatload leading up to this – between some credible draft picks, cap space and players who know how to play basketball and have some upside – yeah not star upside, but rotation level upside.  We know that Atlanta could have offered Al Horford and Jeff Teague – granted their motivation to do so might have been modest considering that they could have tried to sign Howard outright after the season.  It is hard to think that Aaron Affalo, Al Harrington, Nikova Vucevic, Moe Harkless, a bunch of low value draft picks is a fair price for the 2nd best player in the league.  I mean, that is a combined 0 players who are likely to be key players on the next good Orlando team.  Apparently Orlando has a beat on Jabari Parker in 2014 or something – otherwise this is pretty horrible return for a truly great (albeit truly flaky) player.

For the Lakers, this is obviously heist.  After trading a bunch of picks they don’t want for Steve Nash, getting Dwight Howard for Andrew Bynum and a sack of potatoes is pretty amazing.  With Antawn Jamison augmenting their depth, the Lakers are still way thinner than what you’d prefer and relying on some old guys with big egos (Kobe cough cough), and the pieces do not fit precisely.  But they have four of the 25 best players in the game!  Is Dwight Howard healthy and capable of being the next great Lakers center and phase into the leader of the franchise?  Well he won’t have to lead right away.  Lakers have moved up to a solid 3rd in the pecking order behind Miami and OKC.

Denver’s role here is weird.  On one hand you can blame them for midwifing a trade that reduces their chance of winning.  That said, you’d make the Affalo-Harrington for Iguodala deal tomorrow.  And he is perfect for George Karl’s system – athletic, elite defender.  Given Denver’s model, this was a really shrewd trade.  And really, Lakers or Thunder or Spurs – they probably were not going to usurp any of them anyhoo.  They get a solid A- here.

The Sixers you have to wonder – would they have amnestied Elton Brand if they knew that they could have gotten Andrew Bynum.  Doubtlessly that would have been better than Bynum and Spencer Hawes or whatever.  But that said, Andrew Bynum – health risk and all – is the best player legitimately available to acquire outside of Dwight and they landed him.  Bynum is from Jersey and the Sixers will have an edge in money they can offer.  Bynum is no lock to sign, but the Sixers have as good a chance as anybody – maybe better than that. Studs don’t show up every day – so when you can get one – ask questions later.

Overall Grades: Magic D, Lakers A+, Nuggets A-, Sixers A-

 

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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #10 – Final Report and Playoff Preview

First as you have probably seen from the last couple of entries, people still have Cystic Fibrosis – blah blah blah – click here to help …

FINALLY.  The best of the playoff seasons is upon us.  Of course this was after a truly execrable last couple of weeks of the season where teams were playing scrubs shamelessly while still charging full prices.  The Tuesday Celtics-Heat game was a particular atrocity.  So the rankings could be skewed a tiny bit.  But whatever, the playoffs are here and looks at the series are coming up … how have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (2) Bulls (50-16)
  2. (4) Spurs (50-16)
  3. (1) Thunder (47-19)
  4. (3) Heat (46-20)
  5. (5) Sixers (35-31)
  6. (10) Nugggets (38-28)
  7. (6) Celtics (39-27)
  8. (8) Hawks (40-26)
  9. (7) Grizzlies (41-25)
  10. (15) Clippers (40-26)
  11. (13) Mavericks (36-30)
  12. (9) Lakers (41-25)
  13. (14) Knicks (36-30)
  14. (16) Pacers (42-24)
  15. (11) Magic (37-29)
  16. (12) Rockets (34-32)
  17. (18) Suns (33-33)
  18. (20) Jazz (36-30)
  19. (19) Bucks (31-35)
  20. (17) Blazers (28-38)
  21. (21) Timberwolves (26-40)
  22. (22) Warriors (23-43)
  23. (24) Hornets (21-45)
  24. (23) Raptors (23-43)
  25. (25) Kings (22-44)
  26. (29) Wizards (20-46)
  27. (27) Pistons (25-42)
  28. (28) Nets (22-44)
  29. (26) Wizards (21-45)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-59)

It’s the playoffs!  So – quick looks at your first round series are in order:

  • (E1) Bulls v (E8) Sixers – This is #1 vs #5.  What a matchup!  However, the Sixers have really stumbled down the stretch, but the metrics have been strong as the Sixers blowouts early still have resonance.  The Bulls with Derrick Rose’s dicey injury situation could be great – but they could be tricky.  Defense will be the order of the day (#2 v #3) and neither team is great from outside.  I can’t imagine the Bulls losing this but the Sixers match up well with them, better than they do with the Heat.  Bulls in 7
  • (E4) Celtics v (E5) Hawks – #7 vs #8.  Interestingly here the lower seed has home court.  The Celtics have been very strong down the stretch.  But so have the Hawks, both in the Top 6 since the trade deadline.  The Celtics have serious issues with rebounding and size, but the Hawks are 26th in offensive rebounding, so it is hard to read that as a huge edge.  The games have all been close in their head to head.  Really more of a coin flip than the experts purport.  Hawks in 7
  • (E2) Heat v (E7) Knicks – #4 vs #13 Fun series with two defensively adept teams.  Anthony and LeBron will be a great matchup and the Novak/Smith bench for the Knicks could explode.  But it is hard to envision the Knicks winning in Miami.  This is a fun series but Heat in 6
  • (E3) Pacers v (E6) Magic – The Pacers have the 5th best record in the league but merely #14 in rankings.  This describes the Pacers in general – a nice team, lot of good players, but is this the juice to win a playoff series?  The Magic will be motivated with no Dwight Howard and “nobody believing in them”. Did the Pacers more competitive than it seemed result vs Chicago last year inform them or will the Magic’s winning experience do it?  Without Glen Davis, the Magic just don’t have enough players now – good or otherwise.  Pacers in 5
  • (W1) Spurs v (W8) Jazz – Spurs can flat out score, but the Jazz can attack with size.  Will the Spurs lose in round 1 again?  Frankly I’d have more faith in the Jazz if their defense was not so mediocre.  Against the buzz saw offense of San Antonio it is tough sledding.  Spurs in 5
  • (W4) Grizzlies v (W5) Clippers – Grizzlies are a sexy pick to upset the apple cart.  However this is not last year’s Zach Randolph.  Meanwhile the Clippers just have more better players and one of the game’s best all around players and leaders.  Look how the Hornets stole 2 games against the Lakers with Chris Paul and nobody – he is just that good.  In the playoffs, the stars play more.  Lob City is not done yet.  Clippers in 6
  • (W2) Thunder v (W7) Mavericks – Hard series to peg.  On paper, Thunder should rip through this.  In actuality, Dallas can throw a lot of junk D at them and make the Thunder really work for it.  But it won’t be enough.  Thunder in 7
  • (W3) Lakers v (W6) Nuggets – Denver has depth.  The Lakers don’t.  Denver has speed, and the Lakers have real issues with that.  But the Lakers have all the really good players here and their size and ability to dictate in the half court.  I hope Denver can make this fun.  I think the Lakers grind it out enough.  Lakers in 6
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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #2

Well, since the last time we did this report, the league has crammed in another 116 games.  As we had pointed out then, the effects of the lockout and the accelerated offseason showed in some pretty shoddy basketball.  Well with more data, through 241 games the league PPP is still at 0.998, a far cry from last year’s 1.04.  Put another way, currently only 6 teams are above that number this season compared to 15 a year ago at this time.  Just like last week, we can see other metrics.

  • Turnover Rate: Last Year: 15.3% of possessions, This Year: 16.0%
  • TS%: Last Year: 54%, This Year: 52.1%
  • Shots per possession: Last Year: 0.962, This Year: 0.958.

With even two more weeks, the trends have been getting worse, instead of better.  The turnovers remain up, while the shooting is going down, and so the leaguewide scoring has gone down with it.  Just like we mentioned last time, it is tempting to attribute this to great defense – but given the lack of cohesion on so many rosters and the limited time together, it feels a lot like poor offense is much more to blame.  One place this might be evident is leaguewide foul shooting.  A year ago it was 76.4%, while this year it is down to 74.5%.  There is no reason for this to be the case other than guys just shooting poorly.  The league 3P% (35.6 to 34.0) has dipped as well.  So if you think that there have been a lot of low scoring, high turnover, poor shooting games – it’s not just you.

That said, despite the hide your eyes bad level of offensive play, and the way too aggressive schedule – the league is starting to unfold.  The latest rankings are in a permanent home this year, so hopefully you can skip right to the good stuff without reading all this jibberish.  However, if you are reading this – might as well get some observations out of the way:

  1. The Sixers hold the number one position again.  Granted, their losses to the Knicks and Heat do not give much confidence that this is the team’s true level.  However, they have clobbered the flotsam on their schedule.  120-89 over the Wizards, 112-85 over the Kings, etc etc.  This has led to that very lofty league’s #1 defensive ranking.  The Sixers are still excelling at preventing good looks, as their league best TS% allowed shows.  In particular, they continue to do a sensational job at limiting high value shots – leading the league in fewest three pointers allowed and 3rd in FT rate allowed.  That said, in the blowout loss to Miami, the Sixers allowed 54% shooting, 7 threes made in 89 possessions and 21 FTs, all much higher than their lofty levels, and all actually closer to last in the league than anything.  The Sixers seem to be above their heads, but the empirical case for them is still strong.
  2. This early in the season it is interesting to note teams whose rankings and record do not match.  A glaring case is the Indiana Pacers, whom the writer-sphere seems to think is a team to watch and whatever.  Certainly their depth is a virtue in this short season, and they have a number of good, close wins – last night at the Lakers most prominently.  The defense has been excellent, in particular leading the league in FG defense.  Without any other sensational fundamentals, their 41% FG allowed has carried them to the league’s 5th rated defense.  However, their scoring margin has not been that eye popping, mostly because of a gang which so far has not shot straight.  The 41% FG allowed is great.  The 41.9% FG of their own?  Yikes.  Fortunately, they have shot the three well (4th in the league and could stand to shoot it more) and have been one of the best teams in the league at converting at the foul line.  This has propped them up to 23rd in TS%, still not good, especially with the team being a pedestrian 26th in shots per possession.  The Pacers need to crank up the efficiency on that end of the floor.
  3. The big mover in a good way though has clearly been the Grizzlies – which is particularly surprising given the extended absence of Zach Randolph.  As you recall, last year’s late run sans Rudy Gay was driven by almost a 1976 style of play with very few three pointers and a maniacal attention to getting inside.  What is interesting is that much of their offensive style has not changed – actually they have kind of turned into the 2008-2010 Boston Celtics.  They are still not shooting the three (second from the bottom in threes per possession), they don’t get to the line much – but they shoot the twos very well, 4th in overall FG% and that has kept their TS% in the middle of the pack despite being only average at generating shots (16th – this is better tham the Celtics normally do since the Grizzlies actually crash the boards and limit turnovers).  The drop in shot generation and getting to the line has limited the offensive bonanza that their FG% would portend.  Z-Bo clearly helps in both areas.  Just as clearly, he doesn’t help play defense – and the Grizzlies have continued to be an elite turnover generating team – the Tony Allen Experience indeed – and that has been more than sufficient to offset any defensive rebounding help Z-Bo offered.  The Grizzlies were the best team in the league a season ago at preventing looks at the basket.  Now, that is not the case, but they have managed to stay a respectable 7th.

As far as the rankings through the games of 1/22/12? (Rankings from the first report – 1/8/12  – in parentheses):

  1. (1) Sixers (11-5)
  2. (5) Bulls (15-3)
  3. (3) Heat (11-5)
  4. (6) Hawks (12-5)
  5. (10) Thunder (13-3)
  6. (4) Nuggets (12-5)
  7. (9) Lakers (10-8)
  8. (13) Jazz (10-5) Suns (4-4)
  9. (16) Mavericks (10-7)
  10. (2) Blazers (9-7)
  11. (24) Grizzlies (9-6)
  12. (17) Magic (11-4)
  13. (12) Spurs (10-7)
  14. (7) Clippers (9-6)
  15. (14) Pacers (11-4)
  16. (11) Timberwolves (7-9)
  17. (19) Rockets (9-7)
  18. (8) Suns (6-9)
  19. (20) Celtics (6-9)
  20. (18) Hornets (3-13)
  21. (23) Bucks (6-9)
  22. (22) Warriors (5-10)
  23. (25) Knicks (6-10)
  24. (15) Raptors (4-13)
  25. (21) Cavaliers (6-9)
  26. (29) Nets (5-11)
  27. (28) Kings (6-11)
  28. (27) Pistons (4-13)
  29. (30) Wizards (2-14)
  30. (26) Bobcats (3-14)

Anyway, hopefully the season report will be a semi-regular feature.  Even still, the rankings will be updated at least once a week.

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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #1

So, let me get this straight.  We are trying to squeeze in 66 games in 4 months, instead of the normal 82 games in 6 – all of this with a two week training camp and offseason?  And the basketball was going to be good?  Ummm … ok.  Yeah, the Christmas games between New York and Boston and the Lakers and the Bulls were false alarms apparently – as we have had some really crappy basketball to start the year.  How crappy?  Well, last year overall we were averaging 1.045 points per possession.  Right now, the number is 0.998.  Put simply, was was 27th a year ago is 15th right now – yeeah.  So if you thought the points have dropped off (with the pace staying the same), you’re right.  Even if we just compare the first 125 games of the league season (how many games have been played to date), last season we had 1.033 points per possession.  1.033 this year would place you at 8th in the league.  Compare some other stats across the last two season’s first 125 games:

  • Turnover Rate: Last Year: 15.9% of possessions, This Year: 15.9%
  • TS%: Last Year: 54%, This Year: 52%
  • Shots per possession: Last Year: 0.98, This Year: 0.96.

Basically the game has slowed, down – teams are shooting less efficiently, and getting fewer looks at the basket.  It is tempting to salute defense, but this early in the season – one thinks that it is more shoddy play than high quality defending.

That said, despite the hide your eyes bad level of offensive play, and the way too aggressive schedule – the league is starting to unfold.  The latest rankings are in a permanent home this year, so hopefully you can skip right to the good stuff without reading all this jibberish.  However, if you are reading this – might as well get some observations out of the way:

  1. Yes, that is right, the Sixers start out at #1.  You get through a five game road trip to start the season with just two losses and have a +15 normalized scoring margin?  You’re doing something right.  As we know, Doug Collins – the Al Dunlap of NBA Coaches – took this merry band of misfits into a playoff team a year ago, and with almost no personnel changes – what is this?  The Sixers have the league’s top offense AND league’s top defense, and the way they have done both is a study in contrasts.  On offense, it has been a possession based strategy – the Sixers turn the ball over less than anybody, and have ended up 2nd in the league in shots per possession.  Take a pretty good 6th in TS%, and you have a team that is scoring at a very high level.  On defense, they have struggled taking the ball away or preventing offensive rebounds.  This could cause a problem down the road, but their top ranked TS% defense has held up its end of the bargain.  They have been very strong in all phases of ball shooting defense – tops in FG defense, tops in fewest FTs allowed, tops in fewest three point looks.
  2. The Heat of course were the favorites entering, and have done nothing to dissuade those bullish about them.  One obvious thing the Heat have changes tactically is getting out and running.  Their pace has risen from 21st to tops in the league – and so have the points, as they are still a good offensive team.   The pace increase has come from obviously their own priorities, but also their league leading turnover forcing defense – lot of chances to get into the open floor.  That said, there are some things to clean up – in particular trouble defending the 3 and fouling too much.  But the Heat are the league’s best TS%, and it is hard to say a whole lot bad about them.  The win at Atlanta with a skeleton crew and no James or Wade was particularly impressive.
  3. On the other end of the spectrum is the local entry, the Washington Wizards.  They are the league’s worst offense – by 4 points over 29th place.  To put it another way, the difference between 29 and 30 is larger than the difference between #29 and #25.  The Wizards badness on offense is a bit of a surprise with one of the league’s best offensive coaches in Flip Saunders and the Point Guard of the Future in John Wall.  However, John Wall has just been a dreadful shooter, and the Wizards in general do not seem to be getting good shots.  They are bad at shooting in general, and shoot two many contested two pointers – consider they are 29th in three point rate and 24th in FT attempts.  The Wizards have a knack for avoiding all high efficiency scoring – and as a result they are 30th in the league with a thud in TS%.

As far as the rankings through the games of 1/8/12?

  1. Sixers (5-2)
  2. Blazers (6-2)
  3. Heat (8-1)
  4. Nuggets (6-3)
  5. Bulls (7-2)
  6. Hawks (6-3)
  7. Clippers (4-2)
  8. Suns (4-4)
  9. Lakers (6-4)
  10. Thunder (8-2)
  11. Timberwolves (3-5)
  12. Spurs (6-3)
  13. Jazz (5-3)
  14. Pacers (6-2)
  15. Raptors (3-5)
  16. Mavericks (4-5)
  17. Magic (6-3)
  18. Hornets (3-6)
  19. Rockets (2-6)
  20. Celtics (4-4)
  21. Cavaliers (4-4)
  22. Warriors (2-6)
  23. Bucks (2-6)
  24. Grizzlies (3-5)
  25. Knicks (4-4)
  26. Bobcats (2-6)
  27. Pistons (2-6)
  28. Kings (3-6)
  29. Nets (2-7)
  30. Wizards (0-8)

Anyway, hopefully the season report will be a semi-regular feature.  Even still, the rankings will be updated at least once a week.

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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 7

As the rankings continue – we are in the throes of quite the New York Knick streak, as well as the Heat taking advantage of a dip in their schedule.  But at the tippy top, not a ton has changed.  As always, you can find the methodology here.

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Celtics 19 4 102.906 (6) 92.308 (1) 1.826 1.781 (19) 14.206
2 Heat 18 8 104.422 (4) 94.13 (3) 1.615 2.009 (15) 13.917
3 Spurs 20 3 105.569 (1) 96.073 (8) 1.37 0.895 (27) 11.761
4 Mavericks 19 5 102.126 (9) 95.565 (7) 1.313 2.279 (10) 10.153
5 Bulls 15 8 98.111 (16) 93.99 (2) 1.674 2.823 (2) 8.617
6 Lakers 17 7 104.276 (5) 97.074 (11) 1.75 -0.659 (30) 8.293
7 Magic 16 8 100.789 (14) 95.443 (6) 1.75 0.901 (26) 7.997
8 Jazz 18 8 102.177 (8) 98.515 (14) 1.346 2.656 (5) 7.665
9 Hornets 14 10 96.87 (20) 95.131 (5) 1.75 3 (1) 6.49
10 Hawks 16 9 101.628 (11) 98.46 (13) 1.68 1.518 (22) 6.366
11 Nuggets 14 9 102.863 (7) 101.481 (18) 1.826 2.456 (7) 5.665
12 Sixers 8 15 98.665 (15) 96.903 (10) 1.674 1.383 (24) 4.819
13 Thunder 17 8 101.233 (12) 100.655 (17) 1.82 1.853 (18) 4.251
14 Pacers 11 12 96.548 (22) 96.16 (9) 1.826 1.869 (17) 4.082
15 Knicks 16 9 104.499 (3) 102.116 (21) 1.96 -0.583 (29) 3.761
16 Bucks 10 13 93.761 (29) 94.564 (4) 1.674 2.757 (3) 3.629
17 Suns 11 12 104.836 (2) 105.671 (30) 1.826 2.138 (14) 3.129
18 Rockets 9 14 101.729 (10) 102.084 (19) 1.978 1.412 (23) 3.035
19 Blazers 12 13 98.059 (18) 99.023 (15) 2.1 1.78 (20) 2.916
20 Bobcats 8 15 95.96 (25) 98.299 (12) 1.826 2.356 (8) 1.843
21 Raptors 9 15 100.946 (13) 103.483 (25) 1.75 2.194 (13) 1.407
22 Grizzlies 11 14 97.731 (19) 100.007 (16) 1.82 1.763 (21) 1.307
23 Warriors 8 16 98.061 (17) 103.632 (26) 2.042 2.692 (4) -0.837
24 Nets 6 18 96.316 (23) 102.087 (20) 1.896 2.514 (6) -1.361
25 Timberwolves 6 18 96.021 (24) 102.631 (23) 1.896 2.203 (12) -2.511
26 Clippers 5 20 95.57 (27) 103.004 (24) 1.4 2.283 (9) -3.75
27 Pistons 7 18 96.836 (21) 103.711 (27) 1.96 1.058 (25) -3.857
28 Wizards 6 16 95.933 (26) 104.905 (29) 1.909 2.265 (11) -4.798
29 Kings 5 16 94.954 (28) 102.345 (22) 1.333 -0.144 (28) -6.202
30 Cavaliers 7 17 93.481 (30) 104.029 (28) 1.896 1.922 (16) -6.731

For this week’s results, let’s play name that team:  Team A and Team B are the mystery teams:

Team A is 13th in the league in shooting percentage, 10th in FG defense, Team B is 19th and 21st respectively

Team A shoots the three decently (10th) and is even better at defending it (5th), while Team B is bad at both (27th and 30th)

Team A is not good at he foul game, drawing (22nd) or allowing (25th), while Team B is the 2nd best team at getting to the line, and good at not fouling (12th).  As a result of these numbers Team A is 17th in the league in TS% while Team B is 13th.  Defensively Team A is 9th while Team B is 15th.

In terms of shot quantity, Team A places some priority on getting back on defense, with its 22nd ranked offensive rebounding, but defends its own glass nicely (7th).  The defense and offense are cautious with being 11th at turning the ball over and only 22nd in forcing them.  As such, Team A is average (14th and 13th) and getting and preventing scoring chances.

Team B also does not offensively rebound much (20th) and is careful with turnovers (10th).  However the defensive rebounding is 23rd though they force more turnovers than Team A, they are not elite there (14th).  The result is that Team B is 16th at getting scoring chances and 20th at preventing them.

So, Team A is an average shooting team that gets an average amount of shots, but a solidly above average team at shooting defense while being average at preventing looks.  Team B is better offensively, though not by much and is substantially worse defensively in terms of both quality and quantity.

Team A is the Philadelphia 76ers while Team B is the New Orleans Hornets.  The Sixers are 8-15 while the Thunder are 17-9 despite having very similar fundamentals.  In fact, one can argue that the Sixers have played better so far – but somehow the results have not caught up.  This leads to a conclusion that the Thunder have won a lot of close games, stuff that is the sign of a team “knowing how to win”.  Of course this is nonsense, and a function of random occurrence.  As such, the Sixers have reason to hope – and the Thunder still need to be careful.

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2011 NBA Preview: Teams 24-19

This is the third entry in our NBA preview series.  In the prior installment we unearthed our picks for the six worst teams in the NBA.  Now we rise up from badness to mere irrelevance:

24. Sacramento Kings (23rd overall in 2010, 22nd offense, 18th defense)

After much of the walking disasters in the previous section, the teams here seem to either be just unappealing in a boring, non transcendental way, or they are teams like the Sacramento Kings – a team with a lot of raw materials, but without a discernible near term recipe to put the flavors together.  Tyreke Evans, while playing wildly out of position as a lead guard, is one of the most impressive physical forces in the NBA, a pocket version of the LeBron James wing player as-linebacker.  Jason Thompson is an interesting forward, Carl Landry has always been a super productive forward for his pedigree, and Beno Udrih seems like he might be a competent point guard.  DeMarcus Cousins, entering as the #5 pick, is certifiably crazy.  But he is also the single best talent to enter the draft, a big man with soft hands, amazing rebounding instincts and the ability to go for 20-20 any night.  There are going to be some nights where they could crush a team like the Lakers or Celtics on the second night of a back to back.  They will also pile up a lot of losses while trying to put this chemistry experiment together.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Tyreke Evans morphs into the junior Oscar Robertson his talent tracks with.  DeMarcus Cousins IS the best big man rookie since Dwight Howard and Paul Westphal learns how to coach defense.

23. Washington Wizards (26th overall in 2010, 25th offense, 20th defense)

After the colossal disaster of a season ago, the Wizards seemed without hope – sure they had cap space, but who would buy, especially when the three top free agents were making a pinkie swear promise?  Flip Saunders did a decent job defensively – 20th is no great shakes, but at least they gave a shit compared to what Eddie Jordan wheeled out there.  However, his offense predicated on smart reads and cuts was dependent on the basketball acumen of people like Nick Young and Javale McGee.  Oops.  This is not to say these are bad players, but “heady” is not a popular descriptor.  But alas, there is hope with Ted Leonsis owning the team and John Wall landing in their laps as the #1 overall pick.  Wall is the first true facilitator the Wizards have had since Rod Strickland, and if Gilbert Arenas can handle playing shooting guard competently, they could be entertaining pretty quickly.  While the albatross of Kirk Hinrich’s deal is not great, at least he can play basketball and not just run and dunk and shoot wantonly.  Wall, Arenas’ return and the growth of Aundray Blatche could keep things interesting for a couple of months.  Really this is a step in a solid rebuilding process.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Wall is even better than I think he will be (and that’s saying a lot), Gilbert becomes an efficient shooter and Blatche emerges as one of the East’s top power forwards.  The team learns Saunders’ defensive schemes more and become a tough team to score on.

22. Memphis Grizzlies (20th overall in 2010, 17th offense, 23rd defense)

The Grizzlies are the first (ok I forgot the Cavs) 40 win team from a year ago to be on this list.  How they did it though was a bit lucky.  First of all, they were among the healthiest teams in the league.  It is hard to remember any of their core guys, Rudy Gay, OJ Mayo, Zach Randolph missing any significant action.  The Grizzlies were an athletic team that relied on volume to account for relative inaccuracy.  So while their shooting percentage (true shooting) was merely 21st, their league leading offensive rebounding pushed them up in efficiency.  That said, their defense was bad and their bench was worse.  The bench will improve as Hasheem Thabeet might be a bust at the 2nd overall pick, but should be improved as a backup center.  Also the drafting of Xavier Henry gives them some more depth in the wing.  That said, the extension for Rudy Gay was nonsensical, and the odds of human carcinogen Zach Randolph staying engaged again is low.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They played in the NBDL.  Their starting five stays as healthy and focused as they did last year and Xavier Henry plays like the guy who the college basketball experts thought Kansas was getting and not the one dimensional wimp who actually played for them.  But there is just not much ceiling here – considering what a best case scenario last year’s 40-42 was.

21. Los Angeles Clippers (27th overall in 2010, 27th on offense, 21st on defense)

This is one of the first solid upside plays we have in this list.  I could see this team making the playoffs in an everything goes right sort of way.  The key is Blake Griffin.  After missing his entire rookie season, the slam dunk #1 pick of last season shows signs of being that sort of guy this year.  If he is the real thing, then the notoriously unfocused Baron Davis could match it also.  Even as he has gotten older, Davis to me is the best package of pure point guard skills in the game.  When he focuses and stops launching 3s, he dominates games like no other point can.  But he does it so rarely that we are staring a 21st ranked team.  There is a decent amount to like even if they ARE a laughingstock franchise and hiring a crappy coach like Vinny Del Negro.  Griffin and Eric Gordon are building blocks, Al-Farooq Aminu is one of the most talented guys in this draft class (raw but a great homerun swing) and Eric Bledsoe could be a great combination guard.  But it comes down to Baron.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: If Blake Griffin is the type of superstar that can get Baron Davis to be a superstar like he can be too.  This team has the parts of a dangerous playoff team … but bet on any Clippers team at your peril.

20. Philadelphia 76ers (25th overall in 2010, 20th offense, 24th defense)

It is funny what coaching can do.  Under Maurice Cheeks, this team was young, fast and energetic.  Sure they couldn’t shoot, but they could defend and out-athlete more veteran opponents.  But their offense lacked, so the management picks up Eddie Jordan.  But the management forgot Eddie Jordan has no concept of coaching defense.  The accountability was gone and these guys fell like a rock.  Enter Doug Collins.  Collins, ever the ambulance chaser, comes out of his cushy TNT gig to try to rescue the team he played for.  Collins is a great rebuilder, but notoriously bad with young players.  Jrue Holliday is the youngest, and Evan Turner, the 2nd overall pick this year is no grizzled vet either.  Will Collins tear them a new Kwame Brown?  One hopes not, because if their confidence is not shattered (and Evan Turner is a legitimate solid fringe all-star sort as he seems to profile), they have pieces.  Andre Iguodala is a terrific glue guy, Louis Williams is a solid combo guard, Maresse Speights is a terrific post scorer.  The players under Collins will be accountable, and he has always been able to develop underachieving veterans (witness his tour in Detroit).  This team will be better just by having defensive accountability.  That said, I am not sure if they have solved their shooting problems which is years old now.  The Sixers were the 22nd ranked TS% team, and while they might get to the line more now (only 2 teams went less), they still do not have much shooting.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Thaddeus Young or Jrue Holliday make the leap based on their talent, Elton Brand steps in the way back machine and Doug Collins works his Doug Collins miracle while not turning Holliday or Evan Turner into a fetal puddle of goo.  Evan Turner also has to be that point forward/Brandon Roy type and not an overrated non athlete who succeeded due to being in a non athletic Big Ten.  Someone needs to shoot the ball too.  

19. Charlotte Bobcats (14th overall in 2010, 24th offense, 2nd defense)

This is the team I am most confident that I will underestimate.  If Doug Collins in an ambulance chasing miracle worker, Larry Brown positively has healing hands.  Look at that roster.  When Gerald Wallace or Stephen Jackson is your best player, this is not the stuff of a title winner.  There is still a lack of wow on this team, even if they were the first team to really tap into the physical gifts of Tyrus Thomas.  Out is Raymond Felton at the point and in is the oft-injured Shawn Livingston.  Livingston has the talent to be a terrific big point guard, but his lack of shooting ability limits his ceiling.  Besides that, with no first rounder infused into the team, only Thomas’ improvement provides hope offensively – that and cutting down their league worst turnover rate.  Owner Michael Jordan could suit up again and be a net positive with this bunch (it’d better than him as a General Manager).  But somehow Larry Brown persists, and he makes this mishmash competitive by using good position defense that does a good job defending (3rd best forced turnover rate) without fouling.  (lowest FT rate allowed in the league and 2nd at defending 3 pointers). 

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They could let the 2010 Phoenix Suns play offense for them.  This is such a weird mishmash of mediocre talent and unproven upside that Larry Brown getting them 44 wins a year ago is a major league miracle.  He might get 50 wins this year with his skill for all I know.  But this is not the roster with that sort of ceiling, and given Michael Jordan’s work as a GM both here and in Washington, he is not someone you can immediately assume will identify that ceiling. (Adam Morrison, cough cough)


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NBA Trade Deadline – The Final Rush

Well, after much speculation about whether it would be quiet or not – we got a real hoppin trade deadline after all!  So, as a follow up to two other posts on the topic, the final deals:

  • Bucks get Royal Ivey, Primoz Brezec and a 2010 2nd Rounder, Sixers get Jodie Meeks and Francisco Elson

Elson is a classic buyout candidate.  Useful big, solid defender, few other recognizable basketball skills.  Jodie Meeks has not shot lights out yet at the pro level, but for anyone who saw him score 54 against Tennessee, we know the kid can stroke it.  Sixers have been a lousy shooting team for years – they could use all the help they get.  The Bucks get a solid backup PG whom they are familiar with and a second round pick – which should be in the mid 30s, this year.  In other words, a deal that made sense for everyone, even if it is low profile.

  • Grizzlies get Ronnie Brewer, Jazz get protected 1st Rounder in 2011.

Jazz do not NEED Ronnie Brewer.  That said Brewer is an excellent defender and good efficient player even if he is not a good shooter.  He was good enough to start for a title contender.  The Jazz probably did not hurt themselves that much, but making a money dump when they are a legit Top 4 team in the West is a letdown.  The Grizzlies get themselves a legit rotation player and capable 6th man for what could be an outside the lottery 2011 draft pick.  Hard to get revved up about the Jazz philosophy here.

  • Kings get Dominc McGuire, Wizards get $$ and a conditional 2nd Rounder

Not much to say here.  Wizards get below the luxury tax line – and thus could keep Ilgauskas the rest of the year, and the Kings get to see a good defensive specialist sort for the rest of the season, no strings attached.  Let’s move on.

  • Bobcats get Theo Ratliff, Spurs get conditional 2nd Rounder

Another straight dump.  Ratliff could make the Bobcats rotation, maybe.  Not sure why I even listed this.

  • Bobcats get Tyrus Thomas, Bulls get Flip Murray, Acie Law and future 1st Rounder

Bulls get something for the perpetually intriguing Tyrus Thomas.  Law could be a useful backup PG, though with Derrick Rose there, it is bit of a Maytag repairman job.  Flip Murray is one dimensional – but a dimension who can catch fire (a poor man’s Eddie House).  The 1st Rounder from what I read could take a while to materialize – no earlier than 2012.  For the Bobcats, Thomas’ talent is undeniable – though he has been a knucklehead and shown the talent only in flashes.  He can walk after the season – for a playoff push, it’s a good free look for Charlotte.

  • Rockets get Jordan Hill, Jared Jeffries, Kevin Martin, Hilton Armstrong, The Knicks 1st Rounder in 2012 (Top 5 protected) and the option to switch picks with the Knicks in 2011 as long as it’s not #1.  The Knicks get Tracy McGrady and Sergio Rodriguez.  The Kings get Carl Landry, Larry Hughes and Joey Dorsey.

A lot to unpack here.  First, the Rockets did exceptionally well.  Kevin Martin is the perimeter guy they needed, and add him to Yao next season, it’s a great place to start.  Jordan Hill did not play in NY, but that does not mean he can’t be a fit in Houston.  Hilton Armstrong sucks, but hey, a big body is a big body.  Depending on what the Knicks do in free agency, the draft picks could have significant value also.

The Knicks did very well, getting Sergio Rodriguez, who has shown tons of ability in Spain, but it has not translated in the NBA.  One’d think he’d be a good fit with Mike D’Antoni.  They also cleared the salary, so suddenly they are in a position to be huge players in free agency next season.  Can they get two max guys?  Probably not, but they will be a lot better quickly.  It came at a cost, but this trade makes sense.

The Kings also did very well.  Kevin Martin is a very good player but not in their long term plans.  So they turned him into cap space and a young starting caliber big in Carl Landry.  Good all around.

  • Celtics get Nate Robinson and Marcus Landry.  Knicks get Eddie House, JR Giddens and Bill Walker

Celtics got a guy who can be an explosive 6th man for a guy who has been an explosive 6th man and 2 guys who don’t play.  Robinson has more skills than House and House has been meh this season.  Knicks get to move more salary and get a guy D’Antoni is fond of.  Overall a small sensible deal for the Celtics, who need to change their team energy.