Tag Archives: Steelers

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2011 NFL Power Rankings #4

For the first time in these rankings, none of the top teams lost. On the other hand, that did not prevent a 4th team from ascending to #1 in four different go-rounds of this thing. You know the drill by this point, here are the results:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Lions 5 0 0.787 (1) 14.433 (5) 31
2 Patriots 4 1 0.729 (3) 16.738 (3) 29
3 Packers 5 0 0.77 (2) 17.225 (2) 29
4 49ers 4 1 0.642 (7) 14.946 (4) 28
5 Bills 4 1 0.71 (4) 13.925 (6) 27
6 Ravens 3 1 0.642 (8) 19.323 (1) 26
7 Saints 4 1 0.698 (5) 12.9 (7) 25
8 Raiders 3 2 0.61 (9) 9.363 (11) 23
9 Cowboys 2 2 0.573 (13) 12.448 (8) 23
10 Bengals 3 2 0.574 (11) 7.329 (12) 21
11 Texans 3 2 0.52 (16) 9.983 (9) 20
12 Steelers 3 2 0.573 (12) 9.933 (10) 20
13 Titans 3 2 0.571 (14) 6.658 (14) 19
14 Jets 2 3 0.486 (18) 7.125 (13) 18
15 Redskins 3 1 0.609 (10) 3.896 (16) 15
16 Chargers 4 1 0.665 (6) 2.188 (19) 14
17 Broncos 1 4 0.362 (25) 0.6 (20) 13
18 Bears 2 3 0.459 (21) 6.05 (15) 12
19 Giants 3 2 0.488 (17) -0.142 (22) 11
20 Bucs 3 2 0.534 (15) -1.763 (24) 11
21 Falcons 2 3 0.476 (20) -2.563 (26) 8
22 Seahawks 2 3 0.447 (22) -0.925 (23) 8
23 Eagles 1 4 0.365 (24) 2.379 (18) 7
24 Vikings 1 4 0.316 (26) 2.85 (17) 6
25 Jaguars 1 4 0.304 (27) -7.875 (29) 4
26 Chiefs 2 3 0.478 (19) -7.95 (30) 4
27 Panthers 1 4 0.304 (28) -0.075 (21) 4
28 Browns 2 2 0.399 (23) -6.781 (28) 3
29 Cardinals 1 4 0.265 (29) -1.783 (25) 3
30 Dolphins 0 4 0.255 (30) -2.896 (27) 2
31 Colts 0 5 0.216 (31) -12.392 (32) 0
32 Rams 0 4 0.206 (32) -11.385 (31) 0

So, what are some of the takeaways from this week’s results?

  • Green Bay is no longer #1.  However, it’s win over Atlanta after such a treacherous start is a great harbinger for the future.  Besides, Detroit certainly deserves to be considered a #1.
  • Big moves of the week were for the Steelers – beating up on a former Top Ten entry in Tennessee and the Patriots for winning their archrival game.  The Tampa Buccaneers took over the big disappointment after their non-effort against the 49ers.
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NFL Power Rankings – Week 4

Four weeks in the books, and this past week got some real key results – the Steelers no longer being unbeaten and the Bears being undressed in New York in maybe the worst football game of the season so far.  Add in the Patriots well rounded demolition of Miami, and we get a lot of change. As always, 50% of the rating is average margin of victory with adjustments for home field and diminishing marginal returns (so running up the score has less value) and the other half is the average margin of victory of a team’s opponents in all the other games those opponents play. (i.e. a team’s 3 opponent rating is 50% based on the team’s effort, and 50% on the average margin of the 3 opponents in their other games against the other teams on their schedule to date)

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Steelers 3 1 0 20.708 10.021 1 1
2 Jets 3 1 0 14.604 1.604 16 5
3 Chiefs 3 0 0 14.278 3.111 9 8
4 Ravens 3 1 0 13.021 8.896 2 11
5 Chargers 2 2 0 12.042 0.167 22 10
6 Patriots 3 1 0 11.479 1.292 20 14
7 Titans 2 2 0 11.271 2.896 11 4
8 Packers 3 1 0 8.854 -1.146 28 3
9 Colts 2 2 0 8.417 -0.458 24 7
10 Falcons 3 1 0 8.354 -0.896 25 2
11 Eagles 2 2 0 5.688 0 23 9
12 Redskins 2 2 0 5.625 5.375 4 23
13 Broncos 2 2 0 4.958 2.708 12 21
14 Cowboys 1 2 0 4.833 2.167 14 13
15 Texans 3 1 0 4.479 1.229 21 12
16 Bengals 2 2 0 4.438 1.563 17 20
17 Seahawks 2 2 0 4.208 2.958 10 15
18 Bears 3 1 0 3.958 1.958 15 6
19 Browns 1 3 0 3.646 4.146 5 19
20 Rams 2 2 0 2.813 -4.313 31 24
21 Lions 0 4 0 0.708 4.083 6 22
22 Saints 3 1 0 0.333 -2.292 29 16
23 Vikings 1 2 0 0.167 -2.667 30 16
24 Giants 2 2 0 -1.75 1.375 19 28
25 Bucs 2 1 0 -2.833 -1 27 25
26 Dolphins 2 2 0 -3.188 1.563 17 18
27 Jaguars 2 2 0 -3.75 5.375 3 31
28 Raiders 1 3 0 -6.938 -0.938 26 26
29 49ers 0 4 0 -6.979 3.146 8 30
30 Cardinals 2 2 0 -9.563 2.5 13 27
31 Bills 0 4 0 -10.688 3.563 7 29
32 Panthers 0 4 0 -13.083 -4.583 32 32

Some observations:

  • The Chiefs are the last unbeaten – amazing.  They bubble up to #3 based on positive results by teams they’ve beaten, the Chargers and Browns specifically.
  • The Redskins probably are not this good.  But their win at Philadelphia paired with the Rams and Texans victories elevated them the most this week.  The Patriots did not have that sort of schedule jump, but their battering of Miami was big.
  • The plunge of the week thusly goes to Chicago after that disgrace in New York.  Add meh performances by Green Bay get you spiraling downward.
  • Despite the close loss to the Ravens, the Steelers hold the top for another week.  No team has played better against a better slate – for now.
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NFL Power Rankings – Week 3

As has been explained before, the rankings are 50% a team’s margin of victory – 50% the other team’s scoring margin against everybody else.  After 28 points, additional points are only counted half up to 42.  Thus, the best a team can do for a given game is 38.5 points (a 6 touchdown win on the road).  So theoretically the best possible score is 77 (win all your games by 42 points against teams who beat their other opponents on the road by 42).  With that sort of scale in mind, the week 3 rundown:

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Steelers 3 0 0 32.667 17.417 1 1
2 Falcons 2 1 0 21.625 9.958 2 2
3 Packers 2 1 0 19.458 6.792 4 4
4 Titans 2 1 0 18.375 5.208 6 9
5 Jets 2 1 0 15.417 7.25 3 8
6 Bears 3 0 0 12.667 6.5 5 13
7 Colts 2 1 0 11.667 0 21 6
8 Chiefs 3 0 0 10.167 -1 27 5
9 Eagles 2 1 0 9.417 0.167 20 9
10 Chargers 1 2 0 9.333 3.333 11 7
11 Ravens 2 1 0 8.333 5 7 17
12 Texans 2 1 0 5.417 4.583 9 3
13 Cowboys 1 2 0 4.5 1.833 13 22
14 Patriots 2 1 0 4.417 0.583 16 16
15 Seahawks 2 1 0 3.417 -2.75 30 19
16 Vikings 1 2 0 2.75 -0.083 23 14
17 Saints 2 1 0 2.75 -0.083 23 26
18 Dolphins 2 1 0 2.25 -0.417 25 23
19 Browns 0 3 0 2.083 3.75 10 11
20 Bengals 2 1 0 1.417 -2.25 29 25
21 Broncos 1 2 0 0.333 0.5 17 12
22 Lions 0 3 0 -0.125 4.875 8 20
23 Redskins 1 2 0 -1.833 0.667 15 18
24 Rams 1 2 0 -3.542 -7.375 31 32
25 Bucs 2 1 0 -3.583 -1.75 28 15
26 Raiders 1 2 0 -5.208 0.458 18 29
27 Cardinals 2 1 0 -6.917 0 21 27
28 Giants 1 2 0 -8.5 0.333 19 28
29 Bills 0 3 0 -8.667 2.333 12 24
30 49ers 0 3 0 -12.667 1.333 14 30
31 Jaguars 1 2 0 -13.917 -0.75 26 20
32 Panthers 0 3 0 -23 -11.167 32 31

Some observations for the week?

  • The Steelers stay at the top with their win over TB.  Their three opponents have not lost to anyone else.  Right now the defense has carried them – I don’t think Tampa will be a good team for much longer, but the model does not know that.
  • The big leaps of the week go to Dallas and New Orleans.  The latter might be a surprise, but the Falcons become the best team they’ve played, by far – and that combined with the close result lifted the ship quite a bit.
  • On the negative side, the Jaguars 11 spot drop is the worst of the week – a decisive loss combined with losses by previous opponents cause the double whammy.  Bucs felt it also.
  • The Panthers and 49ers remain lousy – though now the Jaguars join them.
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NFL Power Rankings – Week 2

(unrelated note: two more mobile feasts added to the food truck page)

Well, if we can come up with a model to rank college football teams, might as well do the same with the NFL.  The nice thing with the NFL is 1) two games in the books for everyone so strength of schedule numbers are cleaner and 2) no neutral site games to worry about aside from the Halloween 49ers-Broncos game in London.  With 2 weeks of datapoints in the books, where do we shake down?

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 Steelers 2 0 0 36.75 28 1
2 Falcons 1 1 0 23.75 9.5 7
3 Texans 2 0 0 23.25 15 2
4 Packers 2 0 0 19.5 0.75 20
5 Chiefs 2 0 0 19 12.75 3
6 Colts 1 1 0 18.5 9.75 6
7 Chargers 1 1 0 17 6.25 11
8 Jets 1 1 0 12.75 6.25 11
9 Titans 1 1 0 12.5 4 13
10 Eagles 1 1 0 12.5 12.75 3
11 Browns 0 2 0 11 11.75 5
12 Broncos 1 1 0 8.5 1.75 15
13 Bears 2 0 0 5 -2.75 22
14 Vikings 0 2 0 4.75 7.5 9
15 Bucs 2 0 0 4 -5.75 26
16 Patriots 1 1 0 3.75 2 14
17 Ravens 1 1 0 3.25 1.75 15
18 Redskins 1 1 0 3 1.5 18
19 Seahawks 1 1 0 2.5 -3.25 24
20 Jaguars 1 1 0 -0.5 6.75 10
21 Lions 0 2 0 -0.5 1.75 15
22 Cowboys 0 2 0 -3.75 1 19
23 Dolphins 2 0 0 -4.5 -12.5 30
24 Bills 0 2 0 -5.25 9 8
25 Bengals 1 1 0 -5.75 -3 23
26 Saints 2 0 0 -7 -12.75 31
27 Cardinals 1 1 0 -11.375 -0.5 21
28 Giants 1 1 0 -13.5 -9.75 29
29 Raiders 1 1 0 -15.75 -6 27
30 49ers 0 2 0 -16.5 -4.25 25
31 Panthers 0 2 0 -20 -8.75 28
32 Rams 0 2 0 -26.625 -25.375 32

A few thoughts:

  • The methodology is the same as for college football.  As such, the Steelers being at the top is not a surprise.  Two solid wins over teams that kicked the tar out of its other opponent.  The Rams being the worst is a mild surprise given how pathetic the Bills have actually played compared to the Rams decent results.  But the Rams have played a couple of lousy teams and have little to show for it.
  • The two 0-2 teams with positive rankings are the Vikings and Browns.  The Browns seem a bit unsustainable, only because I am not sure the results of Kansas City and Tampa in the future will buoy the Browns so.  The Vikings however did play two good teams New Orleans and Miami (who I sense might be punching above their 23rd rank weight).
  • The Packers schedule is light like the Dolphins I suppose, but the Packers have crushed it so far – the Dolphins have been very impressive defensively, but it is hard to keep winning 15-10 games.