Tag Archives: Thunder

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2012 NBA Playoffs: Conference Finals Preview

And then there were four.  After the Boston Celtics’ glorious though kind of unwatchable Game 7 win, we are left with 4 of the league’s 7 best teams and three of the top four.  Of course this is no surprise given the NBA playoffs spectacular ability to identify the best team – you end up with precious few true surprises.  So with a fairly chalky Final Four, how will this shake out?

Eastern Conference Finals: Miami Heat (4th overall, 6th offense, 4th defense) vs Boston Celtics (7th overall, 24th offense, 1st defense)

Wow, Avery Bradley’s loss is huge.  Given how incompetent he looked for a year and half of his career, this is kind of incredible.  Indeed, as John Hollinger pointed out, even with a rough shooting postseason, Bradley led the Celtics in +/-.  If you remember his sensational block on Dwayne Wade in their regular season encounters – then you can see how Bradley’s loss coupled with Wade’s amazing last couple games in the Indiana series portend to something scary for Boston.  Considering how horrible their offense has been, the Celtics need to lean on their defense and without Bradley that will be hard.  Sure, Chris Bosh’s injury is a slow healer and a high risk one – he won’t be 100% – but LeBron and Wade are clicking so easily now that it is hard to envision the shorthanded Celtics being more than a bug on a windshield.  Heat in 5

Western Conference Finals: San Antonio Spurs (2nd overall, 1st offense, 10th defense) vs Oklahoma City Thunder (3rd overall, 2nd offense, 8th defense)

The Spurs, with Parker and when not punting games to rest their old guys have won 43 of their last 47 games.  This is obviously phenomenal.  They have had blowouts down the stretch against all of their peers, including Oklahoma City.  However, the Thunder’s body of work is a little better than the Spurs with a slightly better defense.  However, San Antonio’s defense has hunkered down in the postseason – and you’d like to think that Duncan and Splitter mean a tougher interior D than Ibaka – who can block shots but not so much at position defense.  Can the Thunder stop the Spurs’ pick and roll?  It is hard to envision, given how the Spurs can spread you out so completely.  In contrast, the Thunder’s offensive prowess is built into individual ability more than a passing and motion attack.  Harden vs Ginobli, Parker vs Westbrook.  The Thunder thrive on winning 1-on-1 battles, but can they win enough here to hang with the Spurs?  Despite Durant’s brilliance – I just don’t see it.  It is going to be a hell of a series though.  Spurs in 6

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Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #10 – Final Report and Playoff Preview

First as you have probably seen from the last couple of entries, people still have Cystic Fibrosis – blah blah blah – click here to help …

FINALLY.  The best of the playoff seasons is upon us.  Of course this was after a truly execrable last couple of weeks of the season where teams were playing scrubs shamelessly while still charging full prices.  The Tuesday Celtics-Heat game was a particular atrocity.  So the rankings could be skewed a tiny bit.  But whatever, the playoffs are here and looks at the series are coming up … how have the rankings changed since we last did this?

  1. (2) Bulls (50-16)
  2. (4) Spurs (50-16)
  3. (1) Thunder (47-19)
  4. (3) Heat (46-20)
  5. (5) Sixers (35-31)
  6. (10) Nugggets (38-28)
  7. (6) Celtics (39-27)
  8. (8) Hawks (40-26)
  9. (7) Grizzlies (41-25)
  10. (15) Clippers (40-26)
  11. (13) Mavericks (36-30)
  12. (9) Lakers (41-25)
  13. (14) Knicks (36-30)
  14. (16) Pacers (42-24)
  15. (11) Magic (37-29)
  16. (12) Rockets (34-32)
  17. (18) Suns (33-33)
  18. (20) Jazz (36-30)
  19. (19) Bucks (31-35)
  20. (17) Blazers (28-38)
  21. (21) Timberwolves (26-40)
  22. (22) Warriors (23-43)
  23. (24) Hornets (21-45)
  24. (23) Raptors (23-43)
  25. (25) Kings (22-44)
  26. (29) Wizards (20-46)
  27. (27) Pistons (25-42)
  28. (28) Nets (22-44)
  29. (26) Wizards (21-45)
  30. (30) Bobcats (7-59)

It’s the playoffs!  So – quick looks at your first round series are in order:

  • (E1) Bulls v (E8) Sixers – This is #1 vs #5.  What a matchup!  However, the Sixers have really stumbled down the stretch, but the metrics have been strong as the Sixers blowouts early still have resonance.  The Bulls with Derrick Rose’s dicey injury situation could be great – but they could be tricky.  Defense will be the order of the day (#2 v #3) and neither team is great from outside.  I can’t imagine the Bulls losing this but the Sixers match up well with them, better than they do with the Heat.  Bulls in 7
  • (E4) Celtics v (E5) Hawks – #7 vs #8.  Interestingly here the lower seed has home court.  The Celtics have been very strong down the stretch.  But so have the Hawks, both in the Top 6 since the trade deadline.  The Celtics have serious issues with rebounding and size, but the Hawks are 26th in offensive rebounding, so it is hard to read that as a huge edge.  The games have all been close in their head to head.  Really more of a coin flip than the experts purport.  Hawks in 7
  • (E2) Heat v (E7) Knicks – #4 vs #13 Fun series with two defensively adept teams.  Anthony and LeBron will be a great matchup and the Novak/Smith bench for the Knicks could explode.  But it is hard to envision the Knicks winning in Miami.  This is a fun series but Heat in 6
  • (E3) Pacers v (E6) Magic – The Pacers have the 5th best record in the league but merely #14 in rankings.  This describes the Pacers in general – a nice team, lot of good players, but is this the juice to win a playoff series?  The Magic will be motivated with no Dwight Howard and “nobody believing in them”. Did the Pacers more competitive than it seemed result vs Chicago last year inform them or will the Magic’s winning experience do it?  Without Glen Davis, the Magic just don’t have enough players now – good or otherwise.  Pacers in 5
  • (W1) Spurs v (W8) Jazz – Spurs can flat out score, but the Jazz can attack with size.  Will the Spurs lose in round 1 again?  Frankly I’d have more faith in the Jazz if their defense was not so mediocre.  Against the buzz saw offense of San Antonio it is tough sledding.  Spurs in 5
  • (W4) Grizzlies v (W5) Clippers – Grizzlies are a sexy pick to upset the apple cart.  However this is not last year’s Zach Randolph.  Meanwhile the Clippers just have more better players and one of the game’s best all around players and leaders.  Look how the Hornets stole 2 games against the Lakers with Chris Paul and nobody – he is just that good.  In the playoffs, the stars play more.  Lob City is not done yet.  Clippers in 6
  • (W2) Thunder v (W7) Mavericks – Hard series to peg.  On paper, Thunder should rip through this.  In actuality, Dallas can throw a lot of junk D at them and make the Thunder really work for it.  But it won’t be enough.  Thunder in 7
  • (W3) Lakers v (W6) Nuggets – Denver has depth.  The Lakers don’t.  Denver has speed, and the Lakers have real issues with that.  But the Lakers have all the really good players here and their size and ability to dictate in the half court.  I hope Denver can make this fun.  I think the Lakers grind it out enough.  Lakers in 6
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On Dirk Nowitzki (Game 1, 2011 West Finals)

Well, this came out of nowhere.  Two teams that engaged in solid defense down the stretch met, and the result was a wild 121-112 back to the 80s shootout.  The numbers coming out of this were incredible.  Kevin Durant scored 40 points on 18 shots, had a TS% for the game of 75.9% and was not even the sickest performance on the court.  That of course was Dirk Nowitzki’s historic 93.9% TS day scoring 48 points on 15 shots.  (24-24 from the line)  There have been a lot of ways to put the game in perspective.  Indeed, the TS% is one way.  Another one I liked was the idea of points per miss.  However, in the history of brutal individual efficiency, what if we add in turnovers to Dirk’s performance.  What this means is that Dirk, could have (theoretically) scored 58 points between the turnovers, and shot attempts.  He got 48 of them, for an 82.8%.  For some perspective Kevin Durant with his 18-19 FT, 18 FGA, and 3 turnovers scored 40 out of 61 points, or 65.6%.  Indeed, below are the percentage of possible points scored for the top 10 scorers in the league this season, and a few other interesting names sprinkled in.

  1. Kevin Durant: 2161 points, 1538 FGA, 675 FTA, 218 TO = 4187 possible points = 51.6%
  2. LeBron James: 2111 out of 4201 = 50.2%
  3. Carmelo Anthony: 1940 of 4023 = 49.0%
  4. Dwayne Wade: 1941 of 3894 = 49.8%
  5. Kobe Bryant: 2078 of 4347 = 47.8%
  6. Amare Stoudemire: 1971 of 4061 = 48.5%
  7. Derrick Rose: 2026 of 4305 = 47.1%
  8. Monta Ellis: 1929 of 4157 = 46.4%
  9. Kevin Martin: 1876 of 3571 = 52.5%
  10. Dirk Nowitzki: 1681 of 3075 = 54.7%

Really Nowtizki is well clear of the field in the ability to not waste chances to score.  Indeed scoping random names in the Top 20 you see Paul Pierce at 53.3% and see just how rare an air he is.  Dirk does not create for his teammates by passing them the ball per se, but he does it by not hogging scoring chances.  It is a talent that exists in negative space, so it’s not fun or sexy – the ability to not do something.  But it is considerable and last night it was on display for the nation.

But, as for the game in total – is there anything of consequence which can be gleaned?  Unlike Game 1 in the East, a lot here did not go to script.  Neither defense will be very proud of its performance.  Both of these teams have shown offensive chops, but in a reasonably paced game (only 93 possessions, around league regular season average), both teams had sterling PPPs. (to put it another way, no team this season average 1.1 points per possession, both teams flew past 1.2 last night).  Oklahoma City gets to the line more than anybody, and sure enough they got 43 free throw attempts in the 93 possessions, which obliterates their season average, while Dallas got to the line a ton 36 times compared to their more piddly .241 per possession (basically they got to the line 14 more times than normal in this game).  Both teams shot well and made their threes – really neither Oklahoma City’s physicality nor Dallas’ zones made any real impression on the other’s offense.

Will this continue?  Oklahoma City we know will keep drawing fouls at this rate, but can Dallas keep it up?  Obviously, officials have something to do with it, but the Thunder’s inability to keep Dallas off the line was huge.  Of course nobody expects Dirk to shoot like this, but the Mavericks are a jump shooting team – it is the non-jump shots that the Thunder need to be worried about.  Dallas got the win, but it is hard to envision them creating contact at yesterday’s rate – even if Dirk can make those midrange jumpers til the cows come home.

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2011 NBA Western Conference Finals Preview

Earlier we broke down the Eastern Conference Finals, so now, the West.  This matchup is obviously a very stark case of old vs young, the Thunder with no starters over 26 against the Mavericks with no starter younger than 28.  A young athletic team which fundamentally changed after the deadline vs an old, wily zone playing team which has been relatively stable all year.  So, what do we think of it?  As always, cited rankings are from our power rankings.

Western Conference Finals: Dallas Mavericks (7th overall, 6th since March 1) vs Oklahoma City Thunder (9th overall, 3rd since March 1)

As mentioned previously, of the final four teams, Oklahoma City is the team who fundamentally changed the most from before to after Match 1.  This is because of the trade which brought in valuable big man depth in Kendrick Perkins and Nazr Mohammed.  Moreover the trade moved Jeff Green and allowed Serge Ibaka to play more and gave James Harden an increased role, which as can be gleaned from his late season split stats, he has seriously responded to.  For OKC, the present does not resemble the resent past.

Mavericks offense vs Thunder defense: Earlier in the year, this would have been a bit of a mismatch.  Before the deadline, the Thunder were 16st in defense, showing both mediocrity in defending shots (16th in TS% defense) and preventing chances (18th).  However, with the increased roles for Harden, Ibaka as well as the new guys, the defense has really stepped up to 5th overall since March 1.  Almost all of the improvement lies in improving shot defense with the TS% leaping up from 16th to 5th.  This is just a matter of defending two pointers better and three pointers better.  Prior to the trade which changed so much, the Thunder were allowing teams to shoot 47% from the floor, 21st in the league.  Since the deal, that is down to a stingy 43.8%.  Similarly, a team which allowed teams to shoot nearly 37% from three point land clamped down on that end as well.  They already were a good team at preventing three point attempts, so this further drove things down.  The Thunder with this added emphasis on defense has also fouled more as part of the physicality.  The ballhawking has improved, but the defensive rebounding is 18th and has not been improved by the trade.

Dallas has Dirk Nowitzki, and we know what a metronome of consistency he is.  The Mavericks have been consistent most of the season, their 8th place finish in offense is pretty indicative of the club they are.  Sure they lost Caron Butler early in the season, but aside from a blip when Dirk was out, they have been the team they always are.  The Mavericks, above all, are a jump shooting team.  Dirk is one of the great jump shooters who ever lived, and Jason Terry is an adept jump shooter.  They take a lot of 3s, (5th in the league in frequency) and shoot it reasonably well (indeed, it’s the only shot Jason Kidd takes these days).  They are a jump shooting team, so they do not get to the line much at all (27th).  Thus their TS% lies in their ability to shoot – if you leave them open as the Lakers did again and again, they will make them.  The nice thing for Oklahoma is that they are old, and old teams want to get back on defense, so the Mavericks are 24th in offensive rebounding.  Combine that with pedestrian turnover numbers and Dallas is very poor at generating looks.  The current version of the Thunder is no great shakes at shot prevention, but it might not matter the way Dallas plays.

Guarding Nowitzki is going to be a chore for the Thunder – Ibaka seems like the best athletic match, but he might be too young for Nowitzki’s moves.  However, the Thunder with their athleticism outside could give the Mavericks a lot of trouble with ball pressure.  If they can control the glass, they could make some hay.  What will be tricky for Oklahoma City is going from Memphis, a team who takes fewer 3s than anyone to the comparative “let if fly” mentality of the Mavericks.  The Thunder should be able to get a lot of turnovers off this team, and it might offset Dirk’s brilliance.  Edge: Thunder

Thunder offense vs Mavericks defense:  The Thunder took off offensively as the season progressed finishing 2nd in offense after March 1.  They were 2nd in TS% combining a fairly sound shooting percentage with an amazing ability to draw fouls.  The Thunder down the stretch were the 2nd most frequent FT takers in the league and they were the most frequent FT takers overall.  Russell Westbrook with his speed and willingness to throw his body into the pile and Kevin Durant with his rip move augment their skill with getting to the line a lot.  The Thunder seem punchless offensively, but as James Harden has grown as a floor spacer, the three point shooting is decent and their foul drawing ability helps minimize empty trips down the floor.  Befitting a younger team, they also led the league in recovering misses, so they generate extra chances when they do miss.  In a way the Thunder employ a Sherman tank collision oriented approach.  With the Mavericks little guards, the Thunder will have a lot of chances to attack.

The Mavericks use wile more than physicality.  Dallas will try to cover for its guards by playing a ton of zone, more zone than any team in the league, and it could frustrate a young team.  The zones keep the game outside.  Dallas did a good job forcing tough 2 point shots.  Their zone covered the 3 point line well, allowing the 6th fewest 3PA per attempt in the league, while also being 4th in fewest FTs against.  The Mavericks are a low contact outfit that funnels stuff towards Tyson Chandler and his tremendous shot erasing ability at the back.  Like a wily older zone team, the Mavericks do not force a ton of turnovers with this conservative approach, and they rebound misses solidly – though I imagine their zones make it hard sometimes hence the 12th place rank.  Their shot prevention is not great (18th) but their TS% defense is a solid 8th.

Can the Thunder get inside Mavericks zones and let their athleticism take over.  It could be a free throw contest or volleyball game at the net if the Mavericks are not careful.  On the other hand the Mavericks are so experienced and their zones so unlike what the Thunder have encountered over two rounds, it might take a while for the kids to adjust.  For the short term at least, the edge goes to the Mavericks but just slightly.

Two Keys to the Series

  1. For the Mavericks, can the zone keep the athletes of the Thunder from getting in?  The Thunder draw a ton of fouls, but the Mavs don’t commit many.  The Thunder go to the rack a lot and crash the boards, the Mavericks zone and junk defenses keep teams puzzled about how to enter.  Over seven games, can a young team crack the puzzle?  Dallas will have to limit the damage on the offensive boards in order to make the Thunder an outside team, something they do less effectively.
  2. For the Thunder, can they cover the threes and all the jump shooters.  In a way Dallas is frustrating in that they lean on the shots that a defense likes to give up.  Memphis pounded it inside, Dallas resolutely will not.  Can the Thunder make this switch effectively while not getting lazy about affairs around their basket?

Like the Eastern finals, this is a razor close series – all the cliches are there.  Youth, experience, guile, physical skill.  Is it Oklahoma City’s time?  I’m going to say yes.  Thunder in 6

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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 18

It’s Tuesday, so it must mean new rankings are here – and this represents a break of sorts with the trade deadline occurring last Thursday.  As usual, the methodology is here.

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Heat 44 17 103.619 (4) 95.452 (4) 1.836 1.195 (29) 11.198
2 Spurs 49 10 103.89 (2) 96.184 (7) 1.72 1.703 (18) 11.129
3 Celtics 43 15 99.955 (13) 93.129 (2) 1.69 1.595 (23) 10.11
4 Lakers 42 19 103.701 (3) 97.135 (9) 1.836 1.403 (27) 9.804
5 Bulls 41 17 99.317 (16) 92.857 (1) 1.69 1.445 (26) 9.594
6 Magic 37 22 101.053 (10) 95.469 (5) 1.661 1.502 (25) 8.747
7 Mavericks 43 16 102.568 (7) 98.254 (13) 1.72 1.9 (12) 7.935
8 Hornets 35 26 98.711 (18) 95.736 (6) 1.779 1.947 (11) 6.701
9 Nuggets 35 26 104.295 (1) 101.81 (21) 1.664 1.981 (10) 6.131
10 Thunder 36 22 102.701 (5) 100.767 (16) 1.75 2.353 (2) 6.037
11 Sixers 30 29 99.496 (15) 97.106 (8) 1.839 1.28 (28) 5.509
12 Knicks 30 27 102.414 (9) 101.167 (19) 1.781 1.631 (22) 4.659
13 Grizzlies 33 28 98.472 (20) 97.662 (10) 1.893 1.646 (19) 4.35
14 Rockets 30 31 102.551 (8) 102.018 (23) 1.836 1.838 (13) 4.207
15 Suns 31 27 102.652 (6) 102.028 (24) 1.69 1.639 (21) 3.952
16 Blazers 33 26 99.629 (14) 99.293 (15) 1.78 1.716 (16) 3.832
17 Hawks 36 24 99.07 (17) 98.221 (12) 1.983 0.868 (30) 3.7
18 Jazz 32 29 100.36 (12) 100.961 (18) 1.721 1.744 (15) 2.864
19 Pacers 26 32 97.267 (22) 98.03 (11) 1.69 1.547 (24) 2.474
20 Bucks 22 36 93.83 (30) 95.273 (3) 1.81 1.995 (9) 2.363
21 Bobcats 26 33 96.627 (25) 98.485 (14) 1.72 1.645 (20) 1.507
22 Warriors 26 32 100.396 (11) 103.067 (28) 1.569 2.178 (6) 1.076
23 Clippers 21 40 97.247 (23) 101.845 (22) 1.721 2.196 (4) -0.68
24 Pistons 22 39 98.534 (19) 103.013 (27) 1.721 2.045 (8) -0.712
25 Kings 15 43 95.451 (26) 100.954 (17) 1.69 1.704 (17) -2.11
26 Timberwolves 14 46 96.697 (24) 102.305 (25) 1.692 1.744 (14) -2.172
27 Raptors 16 44 98.065 (21) 104.281 (29) 1.692 2.178 (5) -2.346
28 Nets 17 43 94.859 (27) 101.574 (20) 1.808 2.08 (7) -2.827
29 Wizards 15 44 94.599 (28) 102.513 (26) 1.72 2.507 (1) -3.687
30 Cavaliers 11 48 94.45 (29) 104.904 (30) 1.78 2.228 (3) -6.446

This week’s observations revolve around the context of some of the big deals and what to look at going forward. In particular:

  • The Celtics moving Perkins would seem to reduce their effectiveness defending the inside.  Meanwhile Green gives them some different skills, and Troy Murphy gives them some offensive firepower.  Will their 13th ranked offense compensate for the perceived defensive dropoff?
  • The Thunder by adding Perk and Mohammed, got bigger and tougher inside.  Also moving Serge Ibaka into the starting lineup should improve their defense.  Will their mediocre 16th ranked defense improve significantly?
  • The Hawks added Kirk Hinrich because they did not want a human traffic cone to be their point guard.  Will their 12th ranked defense improve enough to really make them more than just a no-man’s land team in the East?
  • The Knicks made the highest profile moves of anybody.  The Knicks have been 9th in offense, 19th in defense.  One suspects Melo will add little value to the latter – but can the team’s offense rise up to REALLY make them interesting?
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Dare to be Stupid – Two Teams, Two Big Moves, One Broken Heart

Kendrick Perkins has his limitations.  If you are throwing the ball down to him possession after possession, your offense probably needs a lot of help.  He can’t hit a 20 footer.  But he is a hellacious defender, knew what he was, and a great screen setter.  His scowl was one of the iconic images of this current generation of Celtics.  So his trade hits home a bit.  You hate losing people who have won titles for you.  But you don’t want to overvalue your own guys either.  Perk was not over or underrated, but properly valued by this team.  But he was a player who had trade value.

Celtics get Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic and a protected 2012 first round pick (originally Clippers)

Thunder get Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson

The Celtics are shifting to be a smaller team.  Jeff Green gives their roster some positional flexibility they did not have previously – he can swing between the 3 and 4, and they can deploy lineups like they did in 2008 with James Posey.  However, their ability to defend the post has been substantially weakened.  However, can their strong defensive concept allow then to manage using Glen Davis, an acquired buyout.  The draft pick is useful, whenever it gets cashed in – and the Celtics are in excellent position after this 2 year run is over.  However, for the immediate term, this is a risk.  (The Celtics also freed up some roster spots by dealing Marquis Daniels, Luke Harangody and Semih Erden – but really I have nothing to say)

For the Thunder, this gives them the size underneath they lacked against the Lakers.  Perkins is not a 35 minute a game stalwart, but he is sure as hell a 25-30 minute one when healthy.  He is tough and rugged and able to match up with the bottomless array of West bigs.  Robinson – well he is fun, but I am not sure how he fits in their plans, although he does some of the same things Russell Westbrook does – so their 2nd unit might have use.

However, this is not the end of either team’s moves:

Thunder get Nazr Mohammed

Bobcats get DJ White and Morris Peterson

The Thunder get a useful big man to tag team with Perkins for two players I forgot existed?  Sign Sam Presti up!  Obviously the Peterson deal is a classic salary cap corpse – he might not play a day for the cheapskate Bobcats.  DJ White I remember from the Hoosier days.  He has some ability and potential I suppose – I mean they had to acquire him for some reason, right?

**************************************************************************

The Bobcats also moved their one all-star:

Blazers get Gerald Wallace

Bobcats get Joel Pryzbilla, Sean Marks, Dante Cunningham a 2011 first round pick and a 2013 protected pick

This feels like the Bobcats got a haul.  Really they got Cunningham, two picks and a couple of expiring deals.  I’m sure that will make their fans feel better.  The Blazers get a good small forward with some power forward skills.  Considering their push to make the playoffs – and how soft the Western Conference bottom is at this point, why the hell not.

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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 7

As the rankings continue – we are in the throes of quite the New York Knick streak, as well as the Heat taking advantage of a dip in their schedule.  But at the tippy top, not a ton has changed.  As always, you can find the methodology here.

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Celtics 19 4 102.906 (6) 92.308 (1) 1.826 1.781 (19) 14.206
2 Heat 18 8 104.422 (4) 94.13 (3) 1.615 2.009 (15) 13.917
3 Spurs 20 3 105.569 (1) 96.073 (8) 1.37 0.895 (27) 11.761
4 Mavericks 19 5 102.126 (9) 95.565 (7) 1.313 2.279 (10) 10.153
5 Bulls 15 8 98.111 (16) 93.99 (2) 1.674 2.823 (2) 8.617
6 Lakers 17 7 104.276 (5) 97.074 (11) 1.75 -0.659 (30) 8.293
7 Magic 16 8 100.789 (14) 95.443 (6) 1.75 0.901 (26) 7.997
8 Jazz 18 8 102.177 (8) 98.515 (14) 1.346 2.656 (5) 7.665
9 Hornets 14 10 96.87 (20) 95.131 (5) 1.75 3 (1) 6.49
10 Hawks 16 9 101.628 (11) 98.46 (13) 1.68 1.518 (22) 6.366
11 Nuggets 14 9 102.863 (7) 101.481 (18) 1.826 2.456 (7) 5.665
12 Sixers 8 15 98.665 (15) 96.903 (10) 1.674 1.383 (24) 4.819
13 Thunder 17 8 101.233 (12) 100.655 (17) 1.82 1.853 (18) 4.251
14 Pacers 11 12 96.548 (22) 96.16 (9) 1.826 1.869 (17) 4.082
15 Knicks 16 9 104.499 (3) 102.116 (21) 1.96 -0.583 (29) 3.761
16 Bucks 10 13 93.761 (29) 94.564 (4) 1.674 2.757 (3) 3.629
17 Suns 11 12 104.836 (2) 105.671 (30) 1.826 2.138 (14) 3.129
18 Rockets 9 14 101.729 (10) 102.084 (19) 1.978 1.412 (23) 3.035
19 Blazers 12 13 98.059 (18) 99.023 (15) 2.1 1.78 (20) 2.916
20 Bobcats 8 15 95.96 (25) 98.299 (12) 1.826 2.356 (8) 1.843
21 Raptors 9 15 100.946 (13) 103.483 (25) 1.75 2.194 (13) 1.407
22 Grizzlies 11 14 97.731 (19) 100.007 (16) 1.82 1.763 (21) 1.307
23 Warriors 8 16 98.061 (17) 103.632 (26) 2.042 2.692 (4) -0.837
24 Nets 6 18 96.316 (23) 102.087 (20) 1.896 2.514 (6) -1.361
25 Timberwolves 6 18 96.021 (24) 102.631 (23) 1.896 2.203 (12) -2.511
26 Clippers 5 20 95.57 (27) 103.004 (24) 1.4 2.283 (9) -3.75
27 Pistons 7 18 96.836 (21) 103.711 (27) 1.96 1.058 (25) -3.857
28 Wizards 6 16 95.933 (26) 104.905 (29) 1.909 2.265 (11) -4.798
29 Kings 5 16 94.954 (28) 102.345 (22) 1.333 -0.144 (28) -6.202
30 Cavaliers 7 17 93.481 (30) 104.029 (28) 1.896 1.922 (16) -6.731

For this week’s results, let’s play name that team:  Team A and Team B are the mystery teams:

Team A is 13th in the league in shooting percentage, 10th in FG defense, Team B is 19th and 21st respectively

Team A shoots the three decently (10th) and is even better at defending it (5th), while Team B is bad at both (27th and 30th)

Team A is not good at he foul game, drawing (22nd) or allowing (25th), while Team B is the 2nd best team at getting to the line, and good at not fouling (12th).  As a result of these numbers Team A is 17th in the league in TS% while Team B is 13th.  Defensively Team A is 9th while Team B is 15th.

In terms of shot quantity, Team A places some priority on getting back on defense, with its 22nd ranked offensive rebounding, but defends its own glass nicely (7th).  The defense and offense are cautious with being 11th at turning the ball over and only 22nd in forcing them.  As such, Team A is average (14th and 13th) and getting and preventing scoring chances.

Team B also does not offensively rebound much (20th) and is careful with turnovers (10th).  However the defensive rebounding is 23rd though they force more turnovers than Team A, they are not elite there (14th).  The result is that Team B is 16th at getting scoring chances and 20th at preventing them.

So, Team A is an average shooting team that gets an average amount of shots, but a solidly above average team at shooting defense while being average at preventing looks.  Team B is better offensively, though not by much and is substantially worse defensively in terms of both quality and quantity.

Team A is the Philadelphia 76ers while Team B is the New Orleans Hornets.  The Sixers are 8-15 while the Thunder are 17-9 despite having very similar fundamentals.  In fact, one can argue that the Sixers have played better so far – but somehow the results have not caught up.  This leads to a conclusion that the Thunder have won a lot of close games, stuff that is the sign of a team “knowing how to win”.  Of course this is nonsense, and a function of random occurrence.  As such, the Sixers have reason to hope – and the Thunder still need to be careful.

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2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 5

Another week, and the league gets a little more defined.  The methodology is here.  The Hornets are still upsetting the apple cart, though it seems they have pleateaued a touch.  But the Southwest Division HAS produced some legitimate surprising excitement.  I’d mention the Heat, but then I’d have to kill myself.

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Celtics 13 4 102.799 (7) 93.746 (1) 1.853 1.672 (18) 12.577
2 Mavericks 13 4 102.324 (9) 95.986 (7) 1.441 3.548 (1) 11.326
3 Spurs 15 2 105.108 (3) 97.091 (9) 1.647 1.587 (20) 11.251
4 Heat 10 8 102.791 (8) 96.793 (8) 1.361 3.483 (2) 10.842
5 Magic 13 4 101.937 (11) 94.575 (2) 1.235 1.192 (25) 9.79
6 Lakers 13 5 106.273 (1) 98.599 (12) 1.556 -0.182 (28) 9.048
7 Hornets 12 5 99.525 (15) 94.748 (4) 1.853 2.274 (11) 8.904
8 Bulls 9 6 99.304 (16) 95.941 (6) 2.1 2.658 (7) 8.121
9 Jazz 14 5 101.96 (10) 97.748 (10) 1.658 1.769 (16) 7.638
10 Nuggets 10 6 103.251 (4) 100.875 (17) 1.75 2.97 (4) 7.097
11 Pacers 9 7 98.362 (21) 95.567 (5) 1.531 1.807 (15) 6.133
12 Hawks 11 7 103.018 (5) 99.396 (13) 1.75 0.261 (27) 5.634
13 Thunder 12 6 101.824 (12) 101.596 (19) 1.556 2.78 (6) 4.563
14 Bobcats 6 11 99.989 (14) 99.436 (14) 1.853 1.606 (19) 4.012
15 Bucks 6 11 93.501 (30) 94.581 (3) 1.853 2.58 (8) 3.353
16 Suns 8 9 105.405 (2) 107.865 (30) 2.059 3.417 (3) 3.015
17 Sixers 5 13 97.257 (24) 97.829 (11) 1.944 1.193 (24) 2.566
18 Knicks 10 9 103.01 (6) 102.346 (21) 2.026 -0.342 (29) 2.348
19 Blazers 8 9 99.268 (17) 100.494 (16) 2.059 1.49 (22) 2.324
20 Grizzlies 8 10 97.785 (22) 99.994 (15) 1.556 1.92 (14) 1.267
21 Raptors 6 11 98.481 (20) 101.912 (20) 1.853 2.786 (5) 1.208
22 Rockets 5 12 100.26 (13) 103.367 (26) 2.059 1.969 (13) 0.92
23 Nets 6 12 98.832 (19) 103.026 (24) 1.944 1.578 (21) -0.671
24 Warriors 8 10 99.155 (18) 103.123 (25) 1.944 0.783 (26) -1.241
25 Pistons 6 12 97.648 (23) 102.61 (23) 1.944 1.363 (23) -1.654
26 Cavaliers 7 10 94.791 (28) 101.166 (18) 1.647 2.404 (10) -2.323
27 Wizards 5 11 96.102 (26) 103.395 (27) 1.75 2.567 (9) -2.976
28 Timberwolves 4 13 94.653 (29) 103.452 (28) 1.853 1.691 (17) -5.255
29 Kings 4 12 95.775 (27) 102.42 (22) 1.313 -0.803 (30) -6.136
30 Clippers 3 15 96.854 (25) 106.808 (29) 1.556 2.047 (12) -6.35

What to make of this?

  • The Mavericks surge to #2, mostly due to the strength of schedule.  As we have said before, this is fairly unsustainable.  Indeed if you look at the final 2009 numbers, the Rockets had the toughest schedule at 2.144 points, while the Knicks brought up the rear at 1.420.  A 0.7 point spread is microscopic.  This makes sense given that all the teams have 58 of their 82 games in common.  That said, Tyson Chandler’s inclusion in the lineup has been a godsend to their defense, boosting it from 12th a year ago to 7th now.  The improvement in defense is almost entirely attributable to a rise from 10th to 2nd in True Shooting defense – a product of a great defensive center being healthy again.
  • The interesting dropoff team so far has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Despite a strong 12-7 record, they are 13th here, down from last year’s 6th.  The offense, despite Kevin Durant, has never been a strength – 11th a year ago, 12th now.  But what has slipped is the defense, down to a paltry 19th from last year’s very strong 7th.  What has gone wrong?  Well, a year ago, the Thunder were 6th in true shooting defense and 7th in forcing turnovers.  The true shooting defense was both because of good field goal defense and being one of the best teams in the league at not sending their opponents to the line.  This year, the defense has been a disaster across the board.  22nd in FG%, 3rd worst at committing fouls, 21st in forcing turnovers.  All of that has contributed.  Considering how little personnel turnover there has been – this has to be laid at the feet of the players.  Scott Brooks’ schemes have not changed, but the attention to detail has.  The players might be thinking they are being clutch (with their wins) but they have done well in close games (6-1 with margins less than 5 pts), so well as to be unsustainable.  They have to fix the leaks in their defense, or else the “it boy” dreams of the preseason mags will just be a case of prognosticators getting it wrong again.
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2011 NBA Preview – The Dirty Dozen

Six hours and 10 minutes to go before the store opens for the 2011 season.  12 teams left to countdown.  At this point, we are left with all teams that have a more than theoretical chance to win it all, although certainly a lot has to go right for some of the entries.  The flotsam, is passed:

12. Houston Rockets (16th overall in 2010, 19th offense, 17th defense)

Yao is back, albeit in a highly controlled role.  Kevin Martin, almost as brittle, gives them the best shooting guard they’ve had since Tracy McGrady was still alive.  Last year Rick Adelman used smoke and mirrors to keep them in the playoffs.  Luis Scola is a very good complimentary player – they have a very deep lineup.  Really, this is a team that could make a huge run, if Yao can hold up and if he can become a serious contributor late in the season.  Big ifs, so I will leave them here out of respect for Adelman and the talent Darryl Morey has assembled.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Yao and Kevin Martin give them the dynamic duo – and a healthy dynamic duo at that.

11. Milwaukee Bucks (15th overall in 2010, 23rd offense, 3rd defense)

They won last year with Brandon Jennings youth, Andrew Bogut making a mini-Leap, and the 3rd best defense in the league.  In particular, they forced turnovers at a high rate while being the best team in the league at not committing fouls.  This elevated them from their good but not awesome first shot defense into elite territory.  But their 23rd ranked offense needs to improve.  Enter Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette, offensively gifted forwards.  Chris Douglas-Roberts gives some wing options to that end.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Brandon Jennings is as good as his first season hinted, Andrew Bogut is healthy, their defense stays strong while Maggette, one of the game’s most efficient scorers, can bring their offense up.

10. Chicago Bulls (18th overall in 2010, 28th offense, 11th defense)

He will not be healthy to start the season, but Carlos Boozer portends to give the Bulls the low post scorer they have yearned for.  With him and Joakim Noah, they now have a frontcourt to compete with the East’s best.  Derrick Rose is growing, and his work for Team USA portended well.  This was a bad offensive team, particularly deficient at just shooting the ball.  Carlos Boozer will help this along – even if the Bulls were aiming for a bigger prize.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Their defense is as solid as it was by the end of last year, Derrick Rose makes the leap and Carlos Boozer provides that post presence they need to win playoff games.

9. Dallas Mavericks (12th overall in 2010, 10th offense, 12th defense)

It feels like we could write the same blurb about this team for the last 5 years.  Dirk is a GREAT player, and his cast is solid but old.  They are coached well largely, though it has not always manifested in the playoffs.  It feels like this lineup has a finite amount of time together.  All of these sentences applied in 2007, 2008 and apply today.  Rodrique Beaubois could be a terrific spark as a combo guard, and Tyson Chandler is a terrific pickup as a defensive big and usable contract.  But really where is the upside here?

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Dirk is 2006-2007 Dirk, Caron Butler is 2008 Caron Butler and Jason Kidd in 2003 Jason Kidd.  Honestly this seems like a stuck outfit.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder (6th overall in 2010, 11th offense, 7th defense)

What???  America’s sweethearts are all the way down here?  Let’s be real.  They were abnormally healthy a year ago.  They play in a brutal division.  The question is whether they make the elite leap now or next year.  Honestly, this is guessing.  Durant is going to be an MVP favorite as he should be, and Russell Westbrook is fringe all-NBA.  That is real.  They will be better than they were last year, but it might not reflect in the standings.  This is a fascinating division.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Durant and the kiddies are all growns up!

7.  Portland TrailBlazers (11th overall in 2010, 7th offense, 13th defense)

This is a very interesting team.  The Thunder burst into our consciousness last season.  The Blazers, with a similar assemblage of talent and growth curve, suffered a comically rash level of injury yet won 50 games.  They have the sheer amount of size to give the Lakers trouble – the length the Jazz lacked.  However, is the health just a glitch or a real problem?  They spent too much money on Wesley Matthews, although he is a fit for what they want to do.  This might be the season for them to make The Leap.  Andre Miller is a good trade asset, as he and Roy are a poor basketball fit.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Greg Oden gets healthy and develops.  Brandon Roy stays healthy.  The young talent just grows up.

6. Utah Jazz (5th overall in 2010, 8th offense, 10th defense)

The Jazz cannot beat the Lakers.  They were not long enough last year.  They aren’t long enough now.  They lost Boozer, but fleeced Minnesota for Al Jefferson who is a more than capable replacement.  They lost Wesley Matthews and Kyle Korver, but Gordon Hayward might be better than either by the end of the season.  Deron Williams is a great PG and Jerry Sloan is a great coach.  This team cannot beat the Lakers but they can beat anybody else.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: The Lakers suffer a fatal incommunicable illness.

5. San Antonio Spurs (4th overall in 2010, 9th offense, 9th defense)

The Spurs are on the downside.  But Manu Ginobli had a career year of sorts, and Tony Parker is playing for a contract.  Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair give them a real chance to keep Duncan’s minutes even more controlled.  The pieces are there for another big run – though it will take some help.  After all, they finished 4th last year!  The problem though is that their defense has slipped from the elite levels of their title years, and their offense is a little less efficient than it used to be.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Duncan, Ginobli and Parker go in the wayback machine a little bit … and their defense gets back towards the 2007 standard.

4. Miami Heat (13th overall in 2010, 18th offense, 4th defense)

Obviously they will be better – I don’t think we need to go over why.  In fact on the wing they will be magical, and Chris Bosh is an elite big, although not a great strength big.  They have a lot of bigs – but very little quality outside of Bosh, though Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony are good team sorts.  They will have trouble defending elite size, and teams that have that can beat them in a short series.  They might win the regular season derby – but teams that can pound them inside could very well beat them.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They can defend real size.

3. Orlando Magic (1st overall in 2010, 2nd offense, 1st defense)

HERE is real size.  The Magic are a great defensive team.  Their depth is spectacular with a second five (Duhon, Anderson, Bass, Gortat, Williams) that could win 20 game in the NBA.  Their size on the wings can at least present some resistance against the Heat’s wing elegance.  If a team cannot handle Dwight Howard with single coverage, that opens up their 3 point attack and they become very very hard to stop.  But if Howard is defended 1 on 1, look out.  They will be active looking for an impact guy via trade.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Dwight Howard becomes seriously unguardable.

2. Boston Celtics (9th overall in 2010, 12th offense, 6th defense)

The Celtics can guard Howard 1 on 1.  That has driven the Magic crazy matchup-wise.  The Celtics rank was low in 2010, but they took care to avoid injury and sacrified playoff positions.  But their defense is elite, and with Garnett being healthier, and all the size they signed in the offseason the Celtics have the chance to be much more rugged than they were last year.  Rondo made The Leap last year, this team just has to manage minutes and be strong.  They might not beat the Heat or Magic, but there is no reason to start with that assumption.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They win one more game.

Los Angeles Lakers (7th overall in 2010, 13th offense, 5th defense)

The Lakers won the title last year, with so much wrong.  Andrew Bynum was hurt so much (as usual), Derek Fisher was HORRIBLE at the point and Kobe Bryant was ailing.  Like the Celtics, the Lakers bet on health over wins in the second half of the year and it worked.  The West has a lot of good teams, but none remotely as good.  This breaks my heart to type, I cannot emphasize enough.  No team can match up with so many styles, and the length they have up front makes them an elite team.  They are a rugged strength team and it is hard to envision a team overpowering them.  Witness the Celtics’ moves in the offseason – it was clearly with this in mind.



 

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2010 NBA Draft: Trades and More

Well, so much for the wisdom of my mock draft notions.  However, the trades continue – and almost all of them were driven by money.  We saw Chicago and Miami seriously clear the deck to possibly add one of the monster free agents.   We also saw a smaller, leaner team like Oklahoma City take advantage of the financial aid.  So let’s go through the trades and where we end up.  We discussed some of them previously, but now for draft night itself.

Chicago Bulls send Kirk Hinrich and the 17th pick (Kevin Serraphin) to the Washington Wizards for a future 2nd round pick: In other words, the Bulls drove Kirk Hinrich to O’Hare in order to get themselves a chance to get 2 of the big kahuna free agents.  Obviously if this nets Lebron and Chris Bosh, this is a major win.  That said, the Wizards did pretty well.  One can quibble on the cash, but the Wizards got a young raw body in Serraphin they could try to develop or stuff overseas – and Hinrich is a very useful 3rd guard to go with Arenas and Wall.  The Wizards might suck next year, but there will be hope and interest.

New Orleans Hornets trade the 11th pick (Cole Aldrich) and Morris Peterson to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 21st pick (Craig Brackins) and the 26th pick (Quincy Pondexter): The Hornets were up against the luxury tax – and these problems endangered the ability to keep the team together, and perhaps made a previously unfathomable Chris Paul trade even theoretically possible.  Fortunately for real NBA fans this might have been averted.  Of course count on the Oklahoma City Thunder and Sam Presti to pounce on the chance to play the draft game.  The Thunder need more bench scoring and more size – Peterson can supply the former.  Cole Aldrich is not a star – but he is one of the surest things in the draft.  He is a rotation player.  The Hornets with Pondexter get an elite athlete and defender, and Craig Brackins has the inside-outside potential to be a good stretch-4 in the league.  Considering they did this deal for financial reasons – they got a solid talent haul.

Oklahoma City Thunder send the 18th pick (Eric Bledsoe) to the Los Angeles Clippers for a lottery protected future #1: Bill Belichick would have wept with joy at this trade.  The Thunder, seeing limited possibilities in this draft, end up spinning Bledsoe to the Clippers for a protected pick.  This keeps them with future draft assets, and if the Clippers make the playoffs it will be as a low seed so what the hell.  For the Clippers, they do get a talented guy who can possibly spell Baron Davis.

Dallas Mavericks trade cash to the Memphis Grizzlies for the 25th pick (Dominique Jones): The Grizzlies had a bunch of picks – they did not want to pay them all, so this made sense – though an international stash might have been better in a stronger international year.  Why the Mavericks moved up to get a guy who replicates what Jason Terry and Rodrique Beaubois do?  Hey, it’s Cuban’s money.

Dallas Mavericks trade the 50th pick (Solomon Alabi) to the Toronto Raptors for a future 2nd round pick and cash: Another roster spot the Mavs did not want to pay.  For the Raptors, who are so size deprived, this was a no brainer.  It’s a shot in the dark – but unlike a first rounder there is no onerous contract to worry about.

Atlanta Hawks trade the 24th pick (Damion James) to the New Jersey Nets for the 27th pick (Jordan Crawford) and the 31st pick (Tibor Pleiss) -  the Hawks spin the 31st pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder for cash: Damion James is a nice player – one of the most NBA ready guys, though his upside is limited.  What is hard to understand is why the Nets dealt a valuable pick (#31) to move up 3 spots in the draft.  The marginal value of the move up is nil.  Jordan Crawford has much more upside than James does.  The Hawks wanted cash more than another player, so of course the Thunder swoop in to clean up the mess and collect another asset to stash overseas.

Minnesota Timberwolves trade the 16th pick (Luke Babbitt) and Ryan Gomes to the Portland TrailBlazers for Martell Webster: This is another curious deal.  Gomes is a useful and only partially guaranteed deal.  Luke Babbitt has as much upside as any wing in the draft.  Martell Webster is a promising young player – but has not really shown that wow.  How this is a fair match I don’t know.  Given that Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard was doing this after being told he would be canned – this is a much better deal than his employers deserve.

Minnesota Timberwolves trade the 23rd pick (Trevor Booker) and the 56th pick (Hamadi Ndiaye) to the Washington Wizards for the 30th pick (Lazar Hayward) and 35th pick (Nemanja Bjeilca): I have no opinion on this.  Booker can play – but I was surprised the Wizards agreed so much.

Indiana Pacers trade the 57th pick (Ryan Reid) and cash to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 51st pick (Magnum Rolle): Rolle is 24, but athletic and tall.  Pacers need that.  I have no idea who Reid is.  

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Overall, the Blazers, Thunder and Celtics (who got Avery Bradley – a Monta Ellis talent – with more defense – and Luke Harangody who profiles as the type of player NBA types undervalue) managed the exercise nicely.  The Timberwolves were full of sound and fury – but not sure where it took them.  And then there are the pants (h/t Esquire):