Tag Archives: Vikings

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2012 NFL Update #3

The problem with having something giant magically pop up in your life is that the old things slip – like putting an NFL update together in time.  Alas, my neglect of this – especially with the league going to Thursday games.  Obviously with Arizona’s execrable offensive line performance, the lofty perch the Cardinals hold in the pre-Week 4 power rankings will change.  At the same time, there is more of the league to observe, so here is a quick update with the rankings prior to Thursday.  Note that if we added Thursday to the soup the Rams would be #7 and the Cardinals would be #4.

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Texans 4 0 0.627 (4) 21.083 (1) 29
2 Falcons 4 0 0.67 (3) 18.875 (3) 29
3 Cardinals 4 0 0.75 (1) 16.542 (5) 29
4 Ravens 3 1 0.625 (5) 16.25 (6) 27
5 Bears 3 1 0.604 (8) 13.063 (8) 25
6 Patriots 2 2 0.609 (7) 17.625 (4) 24
7 Eagles 3 1 0.677 (2) 3.938 (15) 24
8 Vikings 3 1 0.578 (10) 6.854 (11) 23
9 49ers 3 1 0.623 (6) 15.542 (7) 22
10 Broncos 2 2 0.563 (11) 19.375 (2) 21
11 Bengals 3 1 0.56 (12) 3.875 (16) 19
12 Rams 2 2 0.503 (15) 4.125 (14) 19
13 Seahawks 2 2 0.594 (9) 8 (10) 19
14 Packers 2 2 0.466 (21) 10.646 (9) 18
15 Chargers 3 1 0.554 (13) 3.667 (17) 15
16 Dolphins 1 3 0.499 (16) 4.458 (13) 14
17 Cowboys 2 2 0.498 (17) 2.646 (19) 13
18 Colts 1 2 0.479 (18) -3.333 (26) 12
19 Giants 2 2 0.448 (22) 6.458 (12) 10
20 Jaguars 1 3 0.552 (14) -1.917 (23) 9
21 Lions 1 3 0.429 (23) -2.188 (24) 9
22 Steelers 1 2 0.379 (28) 0 (20) 6
23 Redskins 2 2 0.401 (26) 2.708 (18) 6
24 Jets 2 2 0.467 (20) -2.208 (25) 5
25 Bills 2 2 0.388 (27) -5.042 (28) 3
26 Titans 1 3 0.469 (19) -7.792 (29) 3
27 Browns 0 4 0.411 (25) -3.375 (27) 3
28 Chiefs 1 3 0.417 (24) -7.917 (30) 2
29 Bucs 1 3 0.313 (30) -0.271 (21) 2
30 Panthers 1 3 0.307 (31) -1.188 (22) 1
31 Raiders 1 3 0.368 (29) -9.75 (32) 0
32 Saints 0 4 0.188 (32) -8.042 (31) 0

Some of the usual observations:

  • Despite the intro – the Cardinals 4-0(1) start is still pretty remarkable.  What is particular fascinating is that the entire NFC West is .500 or better – just think that two seasons ago this was the sickest joke in playoff football history.  Season is long, so there is time for this to change, but still.
  • Patriots sagging at 1-2 hung up a 45 point second half over the poor Buffalo Bills.  2-2 is not “fixed” by any means, but the 4th rated scoring margin portends to bigger things ahead.
  • We have talked about the NFC East as a surprise, but clearly the NFL’s biggest shock so far is the 3-1 start enjoyed by the Minnesota Vikings – who were largely expected to stink.  Adrian Peterson’s return has helped a ton, but really it is the development of Christian Ponder into an adequate NFL quarterback and a defense which has largely been good enough.  They have not piled up any of the Bears/Vikings games yet, but a win over Detroit at least for now seems like a nice feather.
  • The disappointment?  Well – it has to be the Saints, though last week represented progress.  Frankly, in prime time with Drew Brees ready to set a record, it would be hard to envision them losing to San Diego – although their defense is horrific enough to allow that possibility.  Can the Saints go 10-2 the rest of the way?  I wouldn’t put it past them, but clearly they are up against it now in the playoff chase.
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NFL Power Rankings – Week 2

(unrelated note: two more mobile feasts added to the food truck page)

Well, if we can come up with a model to rank college football teams, might as well do the same with the NFL.  The nice thing with the NFL is 1) two games in the books for everyone so strength of schedule numbers are cleaner and 2) no neutral site games to worry about aside from the Halloween 49ers-Broncos game in London.  With 2 weeks of datapoints in the books, where do we shake down?

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 Steelers 2 0 0 36.75 28 1
2 Falcons 1 1 0 23.75 9.5 7
3 Texans 2 0 0 23.25 15 2
4 Packers 2 0 0 19.5 0.75 20
5 Chiefs 2 0 0 19 12.75 3
6 Colts 1 1 0 18.5 9.75 6
7 Chargers 1 1 0 17 6.25 11
8 Jets 1 1 0 12.75 6.25 11
9 Titans 1 1 0 12.5 4 13
10 Eagles 1 1 0 12.5 12.75 3
11 Browns 0 2 0 11 11.75 5
12 Broncos 1 1 0 8.5 1.75 15
13 Bears 2 0 0 5 -2.75 22
14 Vikings 0 2 0 4.75 7.5 9
15 Bucs 2 0 0 4 -5.75 26
16 Patriots 1 1 0 3.75 2 14
17 Ravens 1 1 0 3.25 1.75 15
18 Redskins 1 1 0 3 1.5 18
19 Seahawks 1 1 0 2.5 -3.25 24
20 Jaguars 1 1 0 -0.5 6.75 10
21 Lions 0 2 0 -0.5 1.75 15
22 Cowboys 0 2 0 -3.75 1 19
23 Dolphins 2 0 0 -4.5 -12.5 30
24 Bills 0 2 0 -5.25 9 8
25 Bengals 1 1 0 -5.75 -3 23
26 Saints 2 0 0 -7 -12.75 31
27 Cardinals 1 1 0 -11.375 -0.5 21
28 Giants 1 1 0 -13.5 -9.75 29
29 Raiders 1 1 0 -15.75 -6 27
30 49ers 0 2 0 -16.5 -4.25 25
31 Panthers 0 2 0 -20 -8.75 28
32 Rams 0 2 0 -26.625 -25.375 32

A few thoughts:

  • The methodology is the same as for college football.  As such, the Steelers being at the top is not a surprise.  Two solid wins over teams that kicked the tar out of its other opponent.  The Rams being the worst is a mild surprise given how pathetic the Bills have actually played compared to the Rams decent results.  But the Rams have played a couple of lousy teams and have little to show for it.
  • The two 0-2 teams with positive rankings are the Vikings and Browns.  The Browns seem a bit unsustainable, only because I am not sure the results of Kansas City and Tampa in the future will buoy the Browns so.  The Vikings however did play two good teams New Orleans and Miami (who I sense might be punching above their 23rd rank weight).
  • The Packers schedule is light like the Dolphins I suppose, but the Packers have crushed it so far – the Dolphins have been very impressive defensively, but it is hard to keep winning 15-10 games.
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AFC/NFC Title Games

First of all, while I might not have any clue what the hell Casi Cielo is, my friend tsblogger does … and he needs site visits to start blogging at a respectable pace, so go leave him a comment or five.

And now, the regularly scheduled programming.  Well, the Super Bowl is set – the secular holiday that is February 7 now has a matchup.  First, some words on the title games.

Colts 30, Jets 17 - The ride had to end sometime.  I predicted this to be 24-10 Colts, so I got the score wrong, but the factors that did play into my decision actually bore out.  Given my 12th place finish in fantasy football season, this is a pretty big surprise.  The Revis factor was less of an issue in this game than in the previous Jets victories – most notably because the Colts offensively could win a 10 on 10 game with the Jets.  Sure Revis Island, as the pregame show called it, was a problem, but they could work away from Reggie Wayne.  So while Wayne had the predictably pedestrian game a Revis opponent has (3 catches, 55 yards), Manning still threw for 377 by taking advantage of the other side of the field and the middle game.  I thought Dallas Clark would play a bigger role, but the #2/#3 receivers, taking turns on the Jets other corner and in the slot, combined for a shocking 18 catches for 274 yards.  Offensively the Jets were hurt by two Jay Feely nontrivial field goal misses – but really their blitz heavy defense ultimately failed them.  Good QBs like the blitz in that it provides one on one matchups and ready targets for passes – the key is for the QB to have protection – and Manning consistently had some.  The blitzing plus the ability to shred the Jets middle – and throw in injuries to Jets safeties over the game, and the vaunted defense was left whimpering.  The Jets inability to run the football in a big game added to the worn down defense left too much for them to overcome, even when Mark Sanchez actually played pretty well. (257 yards, 17-30)  Sanchez has the intangibles clearly to succeed – and it is a hat tip to him that in three postseason games, he was never the problem and often part of the solution.

Saints 31, Vikings 28 (OT) – A Greek tragedy in four parts, this game had it all – and like all tragedies it featured a hero brought down by his flaws.  Of course, we’re talking about Brett Favre, who rode a truly amazing season to be the X-factor for the Vikings as they got to the title game against the Saints – but then when his team was ridiculously close to a game winning field goal, he threw a pick in the worst way possible.  He rolled right on a perfectly called 3rd down play, had 10 yards to run to set up a 40 yard FG (not trivial but plenty short for Ryan Longwell, the Vikes kicker) and instead inexplicably threw across his body (increased distance hard to see defenders – read up on geometry) and got picked off.  That said, the interception was not crucial – that is, not throwing a pick did not portend a chip shot field goal – the Vikings made many many many other mistakes, more than enough to squander a 475-257 yardage advantage.  The 5-1 turnover advantage for the Saints saved them on a day where honestly the Vikings did more than enough to win.  The Saints defense needs to be sharper – but they did a good job hanging in there – and given that they were one of the best ball hawking defenses in the league all season – perhaps the many turnovers were part of design.  But it’s hard not to think the Vikings let one get away – a truly compelling, great NFC title game – if not wholly well executed.

Two weeks to ruminate about the Super Bowl – so no pick needed today …

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Divisionals and The Conference Finals

I do not have the notes in front of me (nor the time to research) if this has been the least competitive playoff tournament in NFL history.  That said, it’s pretty darn uncompetitive.  Eight games in two weekends – only two true crackers, although certainly compelling.  One thing that we discover again though from the divisionals was the power of the bye.  It is easy to rally behind good looking wildcard winners – but bye winners get them for a reason.  Some quick thoughts:

Saints 45, Cardinals 14 – I tuned out at halftime.  This was a royal butt kicking, a demonstration of the Saints ridiculous speed, and the Cardinals pathetic defense.  80 points in 3 playoff halves does not a Super Bowl Champion make.  While Reggie Bush is a poor man’s Joshua Cribbs with a better agent, he had a humongous impact.  Really this was a good team that depends on speed, letting it loose on turf.  The Saints defense while not great, is excellent at front running.

Colts 20, Ravens 3 – The Ravens successfully threw the ball downfield on their first drive then stopped trying the rest of the way.  Their offense looked constipated and hopelessly dependent on Ray Rice, and had none of the nasty up front they showed against the Patriots.  Flacco was not especially good, but the game plan was really really mediocre.  I’m not sure John Harbaugh was even awake.  On the other side, the Colts speedy defense is built to eat this sort of vanilla crap up.  The Colts were so untested defensively that the offense did not have to be great, aside from a key drive at the end of the half.  Really a perfect result – a win where they held back tactically – really have to consider this great fortune.

Vikings 34, Cowboys 3 - Karma can be a bitch, and the Vikings blatantly running up the score in the 4th might come back to haunt them.  However, this does not discount what a tremendous game they played.  Favre of course was excellent – his first TD pass was beautiful and his little move to avoid the sack for the 2nd TD was savvy also.  The defense was dominant, stopping anything the Cowboys tried inside and giving Tony Romo so little time, I can’t even blame him for his performance.  The Cowboys did not go downfield – but I don’t know how much time they had to make any sort of 15-25 yard route develop!  The end runs by Felix Jones were the only plays they hit consistently, but that was not nearly enough.

Jets 17, Chargers 14 – The downside of being a defensively oriented, possession minimizing team is that it is hard to blow an opponent away.  The upside of course, is that it is hard to be blown out.  This game had a classic arc, akin to the Patriots highway robbery of the Chargers in 2006.  The Chargers executed quite the ass whoopin in the first half yardage wise.  They were moving the ball without a ton of difficulty while the Jets looked completely overmatched offensively.  However, with Nate Kaeding’s gakked 36 yarder, the Chargers could only take a 7-0 lead with them into halftime.  Sure the lead LOOKED huge because of the Jets incompetence on offense, and inability on paper to scheme their way from behind.  But it is still a 1 possession game – all you need is a play and some luck.  The break came from the Rivers pick on his side of the field, and suddenly the Jets had the short field which they cashed into the go-ahead TD.  Adding Shonn Greene’s run to make it 17-7, the Jets then had some luck when they managed to hang on to a perfect onsides kick.  Just like that, AFC title game bound.  Also, much should be said about Mark Sanchez – the rookie is a clear role player in this offense, but has made a lot of third down plays to keep drives going – and that is a hat tip in his general direction.

So what about the two games Sunday?

Colts 24, Jets 10 – Cinderella stops right here.  The Jets strength defensively is getting pressure on Manning and sealing off the outside with Revis.  Manning, as a terrific veteran QB, is adept at breaking the blitz down and finding the open receivers – heck, Rivers made the big mistakes last week, but still put up numbers showing that the Jets can be sliced apart if the line can keep the QB upright.  However, Dallas Clark is the key here.  The Colts can slice the middle of the field better than the Chargers (and definitely the Bengals) with their TE/Slot game – and that takes Darrelle Revis out of the equation.  The Jets will have to be judicious with their overloading and blitzing and their up the middle guys need to be able to match up.  Good luck with that.  The Colts defense will not be tested in the same manner – though the Jets physicality against their speed is an interesting matchup.  If the Jets had a reliable downfield game, this could be interesting – alas.

Saints 31, Vikings 28 – Should I be cynical and assume that Brett Favre will make one backbreaking interception at some point in the proceedings?  He has not done that virtually all year – so maybe the balanced offense will help here.  Adrian Peterson has been excellent this season if your standard is not skewed by Chris Johnson.  However the shock and awe has not been there.  Will that be a problem against the Saints – I don’t know.  The Saints speed in the backfield and aggressive pass rush make for a good team with a lead.  They will allow points.  So that leaves the Vikings stout D against the Saints wildly imaginative offense.  The Saints in the dome are hard to deal with, and the down hill inside running that the Vikings are so good at stopping is not essential to the Saint attack.  Can the Vikings stop their speed?  They will give it a go, but not quite.

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Wild Card Weekend and The Divisionals

Full disclosure – I had a previous commitment which precluded me from watching the best (and perhaps, only good) one of the four wildcard matchups – the hellacious Arizona 51-45 win over Green Bay – aside from highlight form.  I expect it will be NFL Network’s game of the week – so some more complete thoughts are warranted then.  Obviously sounded like a great game – if not a great defensive performance until the end – and full marks to Arizona for stemming the tide when the Packers seemed to have turned things around.  As for the rest of it:

Jets 24, Bengals 14 – The Jets continued their physical, mauling defense and stifled the Bengals passing game.  Darrelle Revis is the best cover CB in the league obviously, and the Jets front seven is good enough to not make him defend more than he (or any defensive back) can.  But the offensive side of the ball was where the Jets triumphed.  The Jets have been ultra careful not to expose Sanchez – and they did a great job keeping him from being stuck in “pass when we have to pass” situations.  They remained unpredictable with their running game and used it to give Sanchez some easy throws which he made.  And hey he showed poise.

Cowboys 34, Eagles 14 – The Eagles are an outstanding football team.  They hung 45 up on the Giants very recently, they beat some good opponents, their offense is young and gifted in so many places.  The Cowboys just match up very well with them, especially in the trenches where so many games are won.  The Cowboys just flogged the Eagles up front and the rest took care of itself.  The way the Cowboys have played since shocking New Orleans a few weeks back, they are going to be a very tough out.

Ravens 33, Patriots 14 – A complete wipeout.  The Ravens and Patriots have been different teams all season – the Patriots have been so beaten up by injury and attrition, their lack of depth at receiver was exposed.  Their defense has been below average much of the season.  The Ravens suffered from a lot of bad luck and lot of close losses.  But their upside is so much greater than the Patriots and they played near the top of their form.  This was a physical beat down – and the shocking beginning upset any game plan the Patriots might have had.  Just a sad day in Mudville.  The Patriots Era is not over – not by any stretch – but Belichick (one of his poorer coaching seasons) has some work to do.

So now the iron enters the fray.  The Wild Card memories reek with the bias of recency – and we tend to forget that the reason the teams with byes got them was because they deserved them largely.  Does this mean we will see four servings to the firing squad?

Cardinals at Saints – The Cardinals defense got lit up by a very talented Green Bay team.  The Saints indoors might be even more gifted.  Kurt Warner has proven how good he is when is protected.  Facing a very aggressive Gregg Williams defense, the challenge will be to rob Warner of time.  Can it happen?  Sure – especially with Anquan Boldin hurt (though he might be available, who knows – either way not 100%).  The Saints ended the season on a 3 game losing streak, including a varsity-free Week 17.  However, the bye, being at home, and their ability to generate speed all bode well.  I admire the Cardinals toughness – this is a better team than the one that stumbled into the Super Bowl last season – but the Saints have too much firepower under the dome.  Saints 34, Cardinals 24

Ravens at Colts – This is not your father’s Colts team.  I am not sure how much I have seen them really light it up.  It is a testament to Peyton’s brilliance that they have not dropped off offensively.  That said, the Ravens defense is good – maybe not as good as they looked against the fossilized Patriots attack, but good.  The Colts though have had trouble exploding at times – though augmented by better defense than normal.  Their first meeting was a 17-15 tight game where the Ravens had 5 FGs, and against a good team you need more TDs.  Colts inside though should have a little better luck.  Colts 24 , Ravens 17

Cowboys at Vikings – Vikings stumbled down the stretch.  Cowboys are surging and riding a nasty physical defense and an explosive balanced offense.  The Vikings, aside from pasting a character-free Giants team, have shown vulnerability.  The size on the inside of their defensive front bodes well against the Cowboys, but the outside defense, I am less certain.  Also Favre has been good at serving up key turnovers against good teams.  There are so many pro Cowboys signs that I should veer the other way and pick a Vikings rout, but the Cowboys have looked so strong.  I will hate myself for this: Cowboys 27, Vikings 24

Jets at Chargers – The Jets defense and blitzing will cut into what the Chargers like doing – throwing the ball deep.  The Chargers will have to be patient, and might have to win a rock fight.  The Jets running game also plays well against a very suspect Chargers defensive front.  And as last week showed, Sanchez can make a play or two if the situations are handled smartly.  That said, the firepower for th Jets is limited with Braylon Edwards being more likely to drop a big play than make one.  The Chargers will struggle, but not enough.  Chargers 20, Jets 10