Super Bowl XLIV

After two weeks of hype, and a large pretend football game in the middle, we arrive at the Super Bowl.  I withheld my pick initially, mainly because of the length of time, but finally, a last minute breakdown:

  • Neither team is especially good at defense from a yards stifling perspective.  Both defenses are excellent at front running, fast, get some good pressure and do a good job preventing points.  The Colts might be a bit more versatile.  The Vikings pushed around the Saints for large parts of the NFC title game.  The Jets top ranked running game was stifled almost entirely.
  • Both teams are excellent offensively but with completely different MOs.  The Saints use all sorts of formation and personnel variety – lots of zany formations and weird looks.  They will supply the Colts looks that they have not used yet this season.  The Colts are the most vanilla offense in the league.  Base personnel, just trips all day long.  Very little motion, the route combinations are so predictable, but they win with execution and Manning’s sight adjustments.  Great chess match.
  • The Colts seem to be able to adjust to anything thrown at them, and that is a credit to Manning.  The Jets stifled the Colts for 1.5 quarters, but the Colts suddenly figured it out and became unstoppable.  The Saints we are less sure.  The Saints run the ball better, but the Colts seem to get yards when they must.

I am rooting hard for the Saints, but I cannot construct a win scenario in my mind.  Colts has to be the brain prediction: Colts 34, Saints 24

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