NCAA Power Rankings – Week 2

After the horrendous bloodletting the ACC suffered – and a number of juicy matchups that just did not seem to come together, the rankings get quite the facelift.  As we know, the shocks get lower as the season continues.  I noticed in the first week rankings, I left out the basic methodology, so here goes:

There is a 3.5 point home field advantage built-in, so a road team gets 3.5 points of credit.  There are some neutral sites that are a little weird (like Arkansas in Little Rock) but I am willing to roll with them if they want to call it neutral.  It comes out in the wash a little bit.  Anyway, with that caveat out of the way.

Scoring margin up to 28 points is fully considered.  Additional margin of victory is given half credit up to 42 points.  Any margin over 42 earns nothing.  So the best score you can get is a blowout on the road, 35 + 3.5 = 38.5 points – that is, the best result for any single game.  The Margin column is this calculation.

The Strength of Schedule is the scoring margin of a team’s opponents when that opponent is not playing you.  In other words it is your opponents’ performance against everyone else.  This is an evolution of previous years, and cleans up for that self-cannibalizing that any victory can do – that poll oddity where a team devalues it’s win by giving it’s opponent a loss, the sort of “you lose 20% driving it off the lot” favtor.  Add the two figures, your margin, and your opponents’ margin, and you get the total rating.  The other columns, Schedule Rank and W/L ought to explain themselves.  Also, for the purposes of simplicity, all non-FCS teams are considered as one lump, hence the FCS below.  So, how did the number crunching go THIS time?

Rank Team W L Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 South Carolina 2 0 50.5 31 4
2 Oklahoma 2 0 46 28 8
3 Fresno State 1 0 44.5 30.5 5
4 Florida 2 0 44 21 14
5 Ohio State 2 0 38.5 16 22
6 Michigan State 2 0 38.25 18 17
7 Alabama 2 0 37.75 9.75 30
8 Michigan 2 0 36.75 23 12
9 Oregon 2 0 35.88 1.75 61
10 California 2 0 34.99 -0.01 68
11 Baylor 2 0 32.93 4.18 50
12 Auburn 2 0 32 15.75 23
13 Houston 2 0 31.47 -0.03 69
14 Georgia 1 1 31.25 17.5 18
15 Texas 2 0 30 6.25 41
16 Nebraska 2 0 29.88 2.63 59
17 Arizona 2 0 29.74 -5.26 83
18 Texas A&M 2 0 28.72 -3.53 78
19 Missouri 2 0 26.99 4.49 48
20 NC State 2 0 26.72 4.22 49
21 Iowa 2 0 26.42 -2.08 75
22 Oregon State 0 1 26 35 1
23 FIU 0 1 24.5 29.5 6
24 SMU 1 1 24.38 16.13 21
25 USC 2 0 23.5 13.75 26
26 BYU 1 1 22.25 28 8
27 North Carolina 0 1 21.5 27.5 11
28 Oklahoma State 2 0 21 2 60
29 Air Force 2 0 20.49 -7.51 89
30 Mississippi State 1 1 19.75 3.75 55
31 Boston College 2 0 19.58 4.08 52
32 Miami-FL 1 1 19.24 5.99 43
33 Stanford 2 0 19.08 -13.3 108
34 San Diego State 2 0 18.74 -10.51 95
35 Arkansas 2 0 18.72 -10.53 97
36 Tulsa 1 1 18.5 11.25 28
37 Notre Dame 1 1 18.5 15 25
38 UCF 1 1 17.93 6.68 37
39 Clemson 2 0 17.71 -11.04 103
40 Toledo 1 1 17.5 29 7
41 Illinois 1 1 16.94 6.94 34
42 Utah 2 0 16.5 1 62
43 Wake Forest 2 0 16.47 -3.53 79
44 LSU 2 0 15.75 -1 72
45 New Mexico State 0 1 15 35 1
46 Idaho 1 1 14.99 6.24 42
47 Washington 1 1 14.88 5.63 44
48 Pittsburgh 1 1 14.61 3.36 56
49 Troy 1 1 14.5 12.75 27
50 Iowa State 1 1 13.75 17.5 18
51 Texas Tech 2 0 13.63 -7 85
52 Penn State 1 1 12.67 6.92 35
53 Utah State 1 1 12.6 3.85 54
54 Duke 1 1 12.05 6.3 40
55 Maryland 2 0 11.49 -7.51 88
56 TCU 2 0 11.49 -10.51 95
57 LA-Monroe 0 1 10.5 34.5 3
58 Kentucky 2 0 10.13 -10.88 102
59 Indiana 1 0 9.89 -21.11 113
60 Temple 2 0 9.49 4.49 47
61 UCLA 0 2 9.25 27.75 10
62 Nevada 2 0 8.88 -21.12 114
63 Tennessee 1 1 8.74 6.99 33
64 Central Michigan 1 1 8.44 -7.06 87
65 Rutgers 2 0 8.43 -10.57 99
66 Kent State 1 1 8.43 -1.57 73
67 Virginia 1 1 8.35 -2.4 77
68 Navy 1 1 8.23 6.73 36
69 South Florida 1 1 7.74 0.49 65
70 Arizona State 2 0 6.92 -21.08 112
71 Buffalo 1 1 6.68 4.18 50
72 Louisville 1 1 6.52 5.02 46
73 Minnesota 1 1 4.41 0.66 64
74 Miami-OH 1 1 4.25 10 29
75 Vanderbilt 0 2 4 17 20
76 Kansas 1 1 3.91 3.91 53
77 Syracuse 1 1 3.88 -1.75 74
78 Marshall 0 2 3.63 20.75 15
79 UTEP 1 1 3.6 6.35 39
80 Western Michigan 1 1 3.2 -2.3 76
81 Georgia Tech 1 1 2.93 -12.07 105
82 Connecticut 1 1 2.49 -6.76 84
83 Hawaii 1 1 2 5.25 45
84 East Carolina 2 0 1.88 -10.13 94
85 Ole Miss 1 1 0.43 -7.82 90
86 San Jose State 0 2 0.13 22.25 13
87 Louisiana Tech 1 1 -0.55 6.58 38
88 Cincinnati 1 1 -0.56 -10.56 98
89 Florida Atlantic 1 1 -1 3.25 57
90 Boise State 1 0 -2 -5 81
91 Florida State 1 1 -2.76 -7.01 86
92 Rice 1 1 -3.5 2.75 58
93 Bowling Green 0 2 -3.5 1 62
94 North Texas 0 2 -3.5 7.75 32
95 Southern Miss 1 1 -3.85 -5.1 82
96 MTSU 1 1 -4.13 -12.13 106
97 Northwestern 2 0 -5.84 -22.59 116
98 Army 1 1 -6 -8.25 91
99 Colorado 1 1 -6.88 0 67
100 West Virginia 2 0 -8.19 -26.19 118
101 Wyoming 1 1 -8.25 -0.5 70
102 Kansas State 2 0 -9.87 -26.37 119
103 Wisconsin 2 0 -11.38 -29.63 121
104 Purdue 1 1 -11.48 -12.73 107
105 New Mexico 0 2 -12.63 20.63 16
106 UNLV 0 2 -14.25 8 31
107 Eastern Michigan 0 2 -14.5 -10.75 100
108 Virginia Tech 0 2 -14.85 -10.85 101
109 Western Kentucky 0 2 -15 15.75 23
110 Tulane 1 1 -15.27 -11.27 104
111 Ball State 1 1 -15.32 -21.82 115
112 UAB 0 2 -18 -8.75 92
113 Ohio 1 1 -19.38 -27.38 120
114 FCS 6 58 -21.05 0.18 66
115 Washington State 1 1 -26.31 -9.31 93
116 Memphis 0 2 -26.38 -0.5 70
117 Northern Illinois 1 1 -26.77 -23.02 117
118 Arkansas State 0 2 -27.25 -14.25 109
119 LA-Lafayette 1 1 -29 -15 110
120 Colorado State 0 2 -32.88 -4.88 80
121 Akron 0 2 -33.07 -19.57 111

South Carolina leaps to the head of the class based on their win over Georgia and coupled with Georgia of course having beaten the tar out of a low level FBS team last week.  As you can see, in most cases, we only have one true strength of schedule data point – so the caveats associated with conclusions from said behaviors apply – but South Carolina’s start has been outstanding.  Given the rotten week the ACC had, that NC State at #20 is the top entry is entirely appropriate.

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