NCAA Power Rankings and BCS Do-Over – Week 3

Week 3 in the books – not a ton of compelling matchups, but a lot of interesting upset alerts with one team in particular (Iowa) coming home crestfallen.  Also, with their trouncing of Duke (can’t the ACC at least PRETEND), Alabama leaps back to #1 – South Carolina’s narrower than usual win against Furman combined with Georgia’s loss to Arkansas knocked them down a few pegs. The rankings of course changed a ton – as more strength of schedule datapoints show up, the changes will get smaller and smaller.  But until then (methodology is here) …

Rank Team W L Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 Alabama 3 0 40.33 10 20
2 Florida 3 0 38.08 16.92 8
3 Ohio State 3 0 37.42 11.75 15
4 Stanford 3 0 35.12 1.87 56
5 Nebraska 3 0 34.21 4.96 45
6 Oklahoma 3 0 32.83 19.83 6
7 Arizona 3 0 32.81 7.15 32
8 TCU 3 0 30.23 5.06 44
9 Fresno State 2 0 27.38 10.13 19
10 California 2 1 27.15 9.65 22
11 Georgia 1 2 26.75 19.92 4
12 FIU 0 2 26.63 30.88 1
13 Auburn 3 0 25.92 14.08 12
14 Nevada 3 0 25.33 -1.67 74
15 Oklahoma State 3 0 25.25 1.75 57
16 Missouri 3 0 24.89 8.89 25
17 LSU 3 0 24.42 5.92 38
18 Iowa 2 1 24.27 6.44 35
19 South Carolina 3 0 24.05 4.72 47
20 NC State 3 0 22.97 4.3 48
21 Texas 3 0 20.63 0.29 68
22 UCLA 1 2 20.42 26.75 2
23 Michigan State 3 0 20.25 5.75 40
24 Oregon 3 0 19.98 -14.44 117
25 Penn State 2 1 19.94 8.11 28
26 Boise State 2 0 19.38 0.38 67
27 Miami-FL 1 1 19.22 5.97 37
28 USC 3 0 18.25 6.92 34
29 Central Michigan 2 1 17.28 -4.63 88
30 Arkansas 3 0 17.22 -5.78 93
31 Notre Dame 1 2 16.92 14.42 11
32 Pittsburgh 1 1 16.6 5.35 42
33 Oregon State 1 1 16.38 17.38 7
34 Air Force 2 1 15.56 -3.27 85
35 Texas A&M 3 0 15.3 -8.53 100
36 Temple 3 0 14.95 6.95 33
37 UCF 2 1 14.86 1.53 59
38 Clemson 2 1 14.29 -5.04 89
39 North Carolina 0 2 13.88 19.88 5
40 Kentucky 3 0 13.29 -11.54 112
41 Virginia Tech 1 2 13.27 8.6 26
42 Mississippi State 1 2 13 8.5 27
43 Vanderbilt 1 2 12.67 15.5 10
44 Texas Tech 2 1 12.5 2.08 55
45 Baylor 2 1 12.28 3.03 51
46 Maryland 2 1 12.23 3.06 49
47 Arizona State 2 1 11.84 -7.66 97
48 Utah 3 0 11.67 -10.33 108
49 Houston 2 1 11.63 -4.53 87
50 Cincinnati 1 2 11.62 7.45 31
51 Troy 1 2 11.25 9.25 23
52 San Diego State 2 1 10.9 -8.77 103
53 Idaho 2 1 10.35 -3.15 83
54 Michigan 3 0 9.82 -1.02 73
55 Wisconsin 3 0 9.54 -2.96 81
56 Tennessee 1 2 8.98 12.48 14
57 West Virginia 3 0 8.82 -7.85 98
58 SMU 2 1 8.38 -1.79 75
59 Virginia 1 1 8.09 -2.66 80
60 Northwestern 3 0 7.93 -10.07 106
61 Boston College 2 0 7.32 -8.18 99
62 Washington 1 2 7.21 11.54 17
63 Rutgers 2 0 6.92 -12.08 113
64 Illinois 2 1 6.86 -1.8 76
65 South Florida 1 1 6.84 -0.41 71
66 Iowa State 1 2 5.5 10.33 18
67 Toledo 2 1 5.46 7.63 29
68 Tulsa 1 2 4.25 9.67 21
69 Southern Miss 2 1 3.92 -1.91 77
70 Florida State 2 1 3.73 -7.1 95
71 Utah State 1 2 3.23 3.06 50
72 Kansas State 3 0 2.91 -10.42 110
73 Wake Forest 2 1 2.34 0.43 66
74 Georgia Tech 2 1 1.86 -11.31 111
75 Navy 2 1 1.53 -5.3 90
76 Kent State 1 2 0.86 1.03 61
77 Louisville 1 2 0.51 0.67 63
78 Western Kentucky 0 3 0.38 26.54 3
79 Indiana 2 0 0.05 -25.7 121
80 Connecticut 1 2 -0.44 -3.1 82
81 Purdue 2 1 -0.91 -5.41 91
82 Hawaii 1 2 -1.13 5.88 39
83 Florida Atlantic 1 1 -1.63 2.63 53
84 Minnesota 1 2 -1.72 -0.56 72
85 UTEP 2 1 -2.19 -10.36 109
86 Marshall 0 3 -2.5 13.08 13
87 Kansas 1 2 -3.97 -0.14 69
88 Eastern Michigan 0 3 -4.42 9.08 24
89 Rice 1 2 -4.5 5.33 43
90 Army 2 1 -4.92 -14.42 116
91 BYU 1 2 -5.08 5.58 41
92 Miami-OH 2 1 -5.42 -8.58 101
93 Colorado 2 1 -5.5 -6.92 94
94 Duke 1 2 -5.51 2.32 54
95 Syracuse 2 1 -6.13 -17.88 118
96 Buffalo 1 2 -6.18 -3.18 84
97 San Jose State 1 2 -6.68 6.4 36
98 East Carolina 2 1 -6.83 -8.67 102
99 Ohio 1 2 -7.01 -2.26 79
100 Bowling Green 1 2 -7.75 -10.08 107
101 UAB 1 2 -8 -2.17 78
102 Western Michigan 1 2 -8.13 -7.46 96
103 Ole Miss 1 2 -8.55 -9.38 105
104 Louisiana Tech 1 2 -8.96 0.46 65
105 UNLV 0 3 -9.75 11.58 16
106 Ball State 1 2 -11.95 -13.78 114
107 Northern Illinois 1 2 -12.26 -8.93 104
108 LA-Monroe 0 2 -12.5 4.75 46
109 Washington State 1 2 -13.2 1.63 58
110 MTSU 1 2 -13.72 -17.89 119
111 North Texas 0 3 -13.75 0.58 64
112 New Mexico State 0 2 -16.63 7.5 30
113 Wyoming 1 2 -17.17 -0.34 70
114 New Mexico 0 3 -17.63 16.21 9
115 Akron 0 3 -18.21 1.04 60
116 Tulane 1 1 -18.27 -14.27 115
117 Memphis 1 2 -18.58 -3.67 86
118 LA-Lafayette 1 1 -19.75 -5.75 92
119 FCS 6 63 -19.88 0.89 62
120 Colorado State 0 3 -21.54 2.96 52
121 Arkansas State 1 2 -22.08 -18.08 120

How would this manifest itself in BCS positioning?

  1. Top 2 teams are in the BCS title game.  Given that Alabama and Florida are in the same conference, this result would be unlikely so we make a tiny change and swap #3 in.  Alabama vs Ohio State
  2. ACC, SEC, Pac 10, Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East champs: NC State, Alabama, Stanford, Ohio State, Nebraska and Pittsburgh.
  3. The highest ranked non-BCS team if in the Top 12 is TCU at #8.
  4. Notre Dame is not in the Top 8, so we can skip them.
  5. If the #3 team is an at-large and an at-large is not in the title game, they get in automatically.  So this adds Florida to the mix.

This leaves two at-large positions.  The Top 14 must be considered and we try to find two non-SEC teams that qualify (since the SEC already has 2 teams in).  The choices are Oklahoma (6), Arizona (7), Fresno State (9), California (10), Auburn (13), Nevada (14).  Using this decision set, Oklahoma and Arizona are the selections.

As for slotting, with the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl losing its anchor spots.  The Rose Bowl in the first year in this case would get a non-BCS automatic qualifier.  So this ships TCU to the Rose Bowl.  The Sugar Bowl would have its choice of Oklahoma, Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Florida.  Florida is the selection in this case.  Sugar, Orange, Fiesta get their bowls filled up with the remaining picks in that order.  The result:

  • BCS Title Game: Alabama vs Ohio State
  • Sugar Bowl: Florida vs Oklahoma
  • Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs Arizona
  • Orange Bowl: NC State vs Pittsburgh
  • Rose Bowl: Stanford vs TCU
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