NCAA Power Rankings and BCS Do-Over: Week 6

Wow!  Chalk has been violated – I guess the season has started after all.  Anyway, since you probably do not live under a rock if you are checking this out – suffice to say there is a new number one.  As always, 50% of the rating is the average scoring margin with higher margin of victories counting less and less, 50% the average scoring margin of the opponents when they play other teams, using the same normalization.  The identity of number one is no shock – though Nebraska’s leap to #2 is, but that’s what pounding the crap out of a previous unbeaten can do.  Without further delay – the table:

Rank Team W L Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 Ohio State 6 0 30.54 4.79 32
2 Nebraska 5 0 26.9 -0.1 79
3 Oregon 6 0 25.42 -3.29 95
4 Alabama 5 1 25.36 6.53 18
5 Stanford 5 1 24.59 6.14 23
6 TCU 6 0 24.07 -2.64 90
7 Oklahoma State 5 0 23.88 3.43 40
8 Missouri 5 0 23.82 2.42 49
9 Oklahoma 5 0 23.33 12.83 2
10 California 3 2 22.83 6.23 22
11 Iowa 4 1 22.65 0.75 66
12 Boise State 5 0 22.42 -1.78 88
13 Auburn 6 0 22.28 8.11 15
14 LSU 6 0 22.14 10.31 6
15 South Carolina 4 1 22.11 8.61 13
16 NC State 5 1 21.18 5.77 27
17 Michigan State 6 0 20.62 2.79 45
18 Florida State 5 1 20.5 1.29 57
19 Arizona 4 1 20.46 5.26 29
20 Florida 4 2 20.24 8.74 12
21 Oregon State 3 2 19.37 19.97 1
22 Utah 5 0 19.34 -7.87 116
23 Virginia Tech 4 2 18.89 6.39 21
24 Miami-FL 3 2 18.34 10.19 7
25 Arkansas 4 1 17.94 3.54 39
26 Illinois 3 2 17.3 9.6 8
27 Mississippi State 4 2 16.33 2.58 47
28 Texas A&M 3 2 15.52 2.52 48
29 Nevada 6 0 15.11 -8.56 117
30 USC 4 2 14.28 3.08 43
31 North Carolina 3 2 13.85 8.75 11
32 Michigan 5 1 13.59 3.43 41
33 Baylor 4 2 13.15 0.45 68
34 San Diego State 3 2 12.75 -5.35 110
35 UCF 3 2 12.43 -1.77 86
36 West Virginia 4 1 12.3 -3.91 101
37 Georgia 2 4 11.62 4.87 31
38 Notre Dame 3 3 11.16 9.16 10
39 Troy 3 2 10.48 1.83 55
40 Clemson 2 3 10.3 0.8 65
41 Cincinnati 2 3 10.26 1.16 58
42 Hawaii 4 2 10.25 0.34 70
43 Wisconsin 5 1 9.48 -4.52 104
44 Houston 3 2 8.99 0.09 74
45 Idaho 3 2 8.84 -4.26 103
46 Arizona State 3 3 8.82 0.23 72
47 Air Force 5 1 8.61 -7.39 114
48 Kentucky 3 3 8.31 1.86 54
49 Connecticut 3 3 8.22 -0.36 81
50 Washington 2 3 7.81 11.51 3
51 Penn State 3 3 7.1 5.93 25
52 Kansas State 4 1 7.04 4.54 33
53 Georgia Tech 4 2 7.04 0.04 75
54 Iowa State 3 3 6.84 8.18 14
55 Maryland 4 1 6.6 -2.7 91
56 Pittsburgh 2 3 6.5 2.7 46
57 South Florida 3 2 6.43 -3.67 98
58 Army 4 2 6.37 -3.72 99
59 Temple 4 2 6.1 3.01 44
60 UCLA 3 3 5.84 6.5 19
61 SMU 4 2 5.67 0.5 67
62 Texas Tech 3 2 5.65 0.1 73
63 Northwestern 5 1 4.75 -5.33 109
64 Virginia 2 3 4.71 -0.79 82
65 Texas 3 2 4.48 -1.72 85
66 Syracuse 4 1 4.06 -10.79 118
67 Fresno State 3 2 4.04 0.04 76
68 Navy 3 2 4.03 -0.07 77
69 Colorado 3 2 3.88 7.13 17
70 Tulsa 3 3 3.56 -4.15 102
71 Northern Illinois 4 2 3.52 -5.19 108
72 Louisville 3 2 2.63 -6.98 113
73 Vanderbilt 2 3 2.53 3.73 37
74 Indiana 3 2 2.4 -4.6 105
75 BYU 2 4 2.25 11.33 4
76 Ole Miss 3 2 2.24 -3.06 94
77 Southern Miss 4 2 2.03 -5.64 111
78 Rutgers 3 2 2.02 -4.78 107
79 Central Michigan 2 4 1.33 -3.62 97
80 Western Michigan 2 3 0.59 -1.06 83
81 Toledo 3 3 0.04 5.16 30
82 East Carolina 3 2 -0.3 2.01 52
83 Minnesota 1 5 -0.82 4.18 35
84 Tennessee 2 4 -1.21 3.71 38
85 Wake Forest 2 4 -2.2 2.25 50
86 Ohio 3 3 -2.77 -7.56 115
87 Purdue 3 2 -2.92 -4.72 106
88 UNLV 1 5 -3.36 10.35 5
89 Louisiana Tech 2 4 -4.26 0.36 69
90 UTEP 5 1 -4.51 -16.01 121
91 Arkansas State 2 4 -4.61 -1.78 87
92 Boston College 2 3 -4.84 1.06 60
93 Buffalo 2 3 -5.13 -0.33 80
94 Marshall 1 4 -5.61 7.85 16
95 Tulane 2 3 -6.05 0.95 62
96 FIU 1 4 -6.05 1.05 61
97 Duke 1 4 -6.36 1.44 56
98 Utah State 2 4 -6.77 -2.06 89
99 Wyoming 2 4 -7.33 6.47 20
100 Kansas 2 3 -7.82 -3.72 100
101 Rice 1 5 -7.87 4.46 34
102 Bowling Green 1 5 -7.99 0.3 71
103 UAB 1 4 -8.29 1.06 59
104 Miami-OH 3 3 -9.28 -1.11 84
105 Ball State 2 4 -10.19 -3.49 96
106 Florida Atlantic 1 4 -10.23 -2.93 93
107 Colorado State 1 5 -10.32 9.18 9
108 MTSU 2 3 -10.92 -12.42 119
109 Kent State 2 3 -11.58 -13.18 120
110 Western Kentucky 0 5 -12.21 5.89 26
111 Washington State 1 5 -12.29 5.38 28
112 San Jose State 1 5 -12.44 6.02 24
113 North Texas 1 5 -12.67 -5.75 112
114 LA-Lafayette 2 3 -12.97 0.94 63
115 Eastern Michigan 0 6 -14.04 3.13 42
116 Memphis 1 5 -15.2 3.76 36
117 LA-Monroe 2 3 -15.99 -2.89 92
118 Akron 0 6 -18.2 -0.07 78
119 FCS 7 74 -18.68 2.01 51
120 New Mexico State 1 4 -19.84 0.92 64
121 New Mexico 0 6 -22.69 1.94 53

The big changes from last week?

  • Well, Alabama slipped to #4.  South Carolina, the first number one in these ratings this season and the current #15, is a damn good team.
  • The Buckeyes are the natural #1.  Indiana is not horrible, but Ohio State drilled them.  Though with the last 2 weeks, Michigan might have been exposed a tad.
  • Florida, slipping to #3, slipped a bit further with their second loss combined with a lot of good positioning above them.

So what does this mean to our BCS rubric?

  1. #1 vs #2 this week – a new conference set.  Ohio State vs Nebraska
  2. Big East, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, Pac 10 champions.  Without enough data to call winners yet, West Virginia, NC State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon.
  3. The highest ranked non-BCS as long as in the Top 12.  TCU gets the honor.
  4. No Notre Dame
  5. No non-winners at #3 and #4 to promote.

So this time, we have three at-large slots to fill.  Once again, no twosies from a conference.  Looking at the Top 14, this leaves Stanford (5), Oklahoma State (7), Missouri (8), Oklahoma (9),  California (10), Iowa (11), Boise State (12) and Auburn (13) as potential candidates.  Using this candidate list and the laws of bowl economics, and the one school per conference criteria, we get Oklahoma State, Stanford and Iowa though Iowa and Oklahoma have solid cases, as does Missouri.  But the three choices have good economic cases and Stanford would make everyone happy since their kids go to class.

Slotting?  Noting the Rose Bowl will take the highest ranked non-BCS this year in a case they lose a team … and Sugar-Orange-Fiesta pick in order … and that the Rose and Fiesta Bowl get fill-ins first because of the national title game …

  • BCS Title Game: Ohio State vs Nebraska
  • Rose Bowl: Oregon vs TCU
  • Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs Iowa
  • Orange Bowl: NC State vs West Virginia
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs Stanford
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