NCAA Power Rankings and BCS Do-Over: Week 7

Well, another week, another shocker at the top …  of course you would think this would make #2 Nebraska a natural to slide into the number one slot and keep our rankings fairly clean.  You’d be wrong.  The polls, as they do, will reveal a new number one.  Our system reveals a slight difference.  As always, the rankings are 50% a teams’s scoring margin and 50% the scoring margin of the team’s opponents when facing other opponents:

Rank Team W L Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 Ohio State 6 1 26.33 5.61 25
2 Oregon 6 0 25.43 -3.28 98
3 Stanford 5 1 24.76 6.3 21
4 Missouri 6 0 24.61 2.69 50
5 Auburn 7 0 24.24 8.95 10
6 Oklahoma 6 0 23.92 9.34 7
7 TCU 7 0 23.59 -3.3 99
8 Oklahoma State 6 0 23.4 2.94 49
9 Nebraska 5 1 22.33 0.99 66
10 Iowa 5 1 21.81 1.31 62
11 Boise State 6 0 21.72 -4.28 104
12 Alabama 6 1 21.54 3.54 45
13 Michigan State 7 0 20.63 2.49 52
14 South Carolina 4 2 20.47 9.13 8
15 Virginia Tech 5 2 19.12 4.19 38
16 North Carolina 4 2 19.06 9.35 6
17 NC State 5 2 18.37 5.51 26
18 Florida 4 3 18.33 8.9 11
19 LSU 7 0 17.84 4.56 34
20 USC 5 2 17.82 3.78 43
21 Utah 6 0 17.14 -10.11 119
22 Mississippi State 5 2 17 4.29 36
23 Miami-FL 4 2 16.66 6.78 17
24 Florida State 6 1 16.01 -1.16 86
25 Arizona 5 1 15.89 -0.2 76
26 Oregon State 3 3 15.48 15.56 1
27 Pittsburgh 3 3 15.08 6.71 19
28 Clemson 3 3 15.04 3.13 46
29 California 3 3 14.99 6.03 22
30 Illinois 3 3 14.12 10.46 3
31 Arkansas 4 2 14.04 5.12 28
32 Hawaii 5 2 14.03 4.67 32
33 Michigan 5 2 13.81 6.52 20
34 Notre Dame 4 3 13.7 8.55 13
35 Cincinnati 3 3 13.42 3.92 41
36 Georgia 3 4 13.35 2.57 51
37 San Diego State 4 2 13.26 -2.15 91
38 Texas A&M 3 3 13.25 5.91 23
39 Wisconsin 6 1 12.84 -1.02 85
40 West Virginia 5 1 12.68 -3.16 96
41 UCF 4 2 12.59 -3.33 100
42 Nevada 6 1 12.41 -7.52 114
43 Air Force 5 2 11.43 -2.5 93
44 Baylor 5 2 10.04 -2.21 92
45 Texas 4 2 9.96 3.05 47
46 Kansas State 5 1 9.2 1.28 64
47 Arizona State 3 3 8.96 0.38 72
48 Kentucky 4 3 8.43 2.46 53
49 Georgia Tech 5 2 8.04 -1.96 90
50 Troy 4 2 7.68 -0.69 81
51 Tulsa 4 3 6.3 -4.31 106
52 East Carolina 4 2 5.83 6.75 18
53 SMU 4 3 5.83 1.9 57
54 Army 4 3 5.7 -3.01 94
55 Rutgers 4 2 5.51 -0.66 80
56 Connecticut 3 3 5.47 -3.11 95
57 Penn State 3 3 5.33 4.16 39
58 UCLA 3 3 5.03 5.7 24
59 Colorado 3 3 5.01 8.72 12
60 South Florida 3 3 4.96 -1.71 88
61 Northern Illinois 5 2 4.71 -6.97 113
62 Maryland 4 2 4.55 0.22 73
63 Texas Tech 3 3 4.14 2.35 54
64 Temple 5 2 4.09 1.31 63
65 Northwestern 5 1 4 -6.09 112
66 Idaho 3 3 3.97 -5.36 108
67 Houston 3 3 3.89 -3.61 102
68 Washington 3 3 3.88 6.8 16
69 Navy 4 2 3.71 -0.87 84
70 Fresno State 4 2 3.24 -3.92 103
71 Iowa State 3 4 2.83 8.97 9
72 Toledo 4 3 2.59 5.12 29
73 Louisville 3 3 2.38 -4.29 105
74 Ole Miss 3 3 2.19 -0.64 79
75 Southern Miss 5 2 1.92 -8.29 115
76 Indiana 4 2 0.64 -5.52 109
77 BYU 2 5 0.51 11.8 2
78 Tennessee 2 4 0.45 5.36 27
79 Virginia 2 4 0.36 0.94 68
80 Central Michigan 2 5 0.08 -3.17 97
81 Purdue 4 2 -0.05 -3.39 101
82 Louisiana Tech 3 4 -0.23 1.88 59
83 Ohio 4 3 -0.59 -8.7 117
84 Boston College 2 4 -0.73 4.44 35
85 Minnesota 1 6 -1.31 4.05 40
86 Syracuse 4 2 -1.56 -9.02 118
87 Vanderbilt 2 4 -2.01 4.62 33
88 FIU 2 4 -2.19 -0.86 83
89 UAB 2 4 -2.26 3.03 48
90 Arkansas State 2 5 -2.35 -0.13 75
91 Western Michigan 2 4 -2.55 -0.51 78
92 Wake Forest 2 5 -3.9 3.85 42
93 Miami-OH 4 3 -4.13 1.37 61
94 Wyoming 2 5 -5.03 10.22 4
95 Marshall 1 5 -5.24 9.47 5
96 Utah State 2 4 -5.46 -0.75 82
97 Rice 2 5 -5.91 4.23 37
98 Bowling Green 1 6 -6.13 0.62 71
99 UTEP 5 2 -6.59 -14.8 121
100 Buffalo 2 4 -6.7 1.88 58
101 Colorado State 2 5 -7.34 5.02 30
102 Duke 1 5 -8.35 0.65 70
103 Tulane 2 4 -8.83 1.08 65
104 Florida Atlantic 1 4 -9.2 -1.9 89
105 LA-Lafayette 2 4 -9.94 2.23 56
106 Washington State 1 6 -10.27 7.3 15
107 Kansas 2 4 -10.78 -1.53 87
108 UNLV 1 6 -10.88 4.97 31
109 Kent State 2 4 -11.3 -11.05 120
110 MTSU 2 4 -11.51 -8.68 116
111 Ball State 2 5 -12.23 -6.05 111
112 San Jose State 1 6 -12.85 7.97 14
113 Eastern Michigan 1 6 -12.91 0.87 69
114 Western Kentucky 0 6 -13.68 2.23 55
115 North Texas 1 6 -13.91 -4.55 107
116 LA-Monroe 3 3 -15.39 -5.89 110
117 Memphis 1 6 -15.81 3.58 44
118 Akron 0 7 -19.26 -0.22 77
119 FCS 7 75 -19.26 1.41 60
120 New Mexico State 1 5 -20.47 0.07 74
121 New Mexico 0 6 -23.65 0.98 67

What is interesting is that last week Ohio State’s margin over 2nd place was pretty huge.  The 3.64 point edge between them and 2nd place was the margin between 2nd and 9th place.  This week the margin shrinks to a tiny 0.9.  That 3.64 margin of last week separates 1st from 8th.  Put simply, if you think the field is wide open, you’d be right.

Of course the power rankings will need to be finessed a bit to fit into a fair BCS framework.  Fortunately we have conference standings starting to take shape, so we will use that and the table above to break ties.  For the sake of this exercise, we will ignore non-first place teams as long as possible when thinking about the championship game.

  1. The number one vs number two: Ohio State is the #1, but with them losing their perch at the top of the Big Ten, we will not consider them.  This leaves Oregon and Missouri.
  2. As far as the other BCS conferences?  Iowa represents the Big Ten, Auburn represents the SEC, Virginia Tech for the ACC and Pittsburgh for the Big East (highest rated of the four 1-0 teams – hey someone has to, right?)
  3. TCU is still the non-BCS winner of consequence.  They are ahead of Boise State by basically the margin of being a Mountain West team and not a WAC one.
  4. Ohio State with a Top 3 grade but not an automatic qualifier – gets an automatic spot.  Stanford is the 4th place team but not automatic – so they get a bid.

Only one at-large team are left given the Ohio State inclusion.  Looking at the Top 14, and realizing no other Big Ten or Pac 10 teams can be considered, we are looking at Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Boise State, Alabama, South Carolina.  Of these, we take Oklahoma.

With the Pac 10 and Big 12 losing teams to the national title game, that means the Rose and Fiesta get the first two slotting choices.  Then the Sugar, Orange, Fiesta get priority.  Also for the next 4 Rose Bowls, if the Rose Bowl loses a team, the first time it happens the non-BCS school goes.  The result?

  • BCS Title Game: Oregon vs Missouri
  • Rose Bowl: Iowa vs TCU
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs Stanford
  • Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs Ohio State
  • Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh

Using these rankings for a pretend 24 team tournament?

Automatic Bids:

  1. Pac 10: Oregon (1)
  2. Big 12: Missouri (2)
  3. SEC: Auburn (5)
  4. Mountain West: TCU (7)
  5. Big Ten: Iowa (10)
  6. WAC: Boise State (11)
  7. ACC: Virginia Tech (15)
  8. Big East: Pittsburgh (27)
  9. Conference USA: Central Florida (41)
  10. Sun Belt: Troy (50)
  11. MAC: Northern Illinois (61)

Thirteen at-larges.  We use the above table, with a 3 team limit, 4 team limit for the 12 team conferences.

  • Big Ten (2): Ohio State, Michigan State
  • Pac 10 (1): Stanford
  • Big 12 (3): Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Nebraska
  • SEC (3): Alabama, South Carolina, LSU
  • ACC (3): North Carolina, NC State, Florida State
  • Mountain West (1): Utah

The S-Curve Top 24 seeds, finessing for the Top 2 (and Ohio State not leading the Big Ten)

Oregon, Missouri, Stanford, Ohio State, Auburn, Oklahoma, TCU, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Iowa, Boise State, Alabama, Michigan State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, NC State, LSU, Utah, Florida State, Pittsburgh, Central Florida, Troy, Northern Illinois

 

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