NFL Power Rankings – Week 7

After six weeks, the Steelers fall from the #1 perch.  Their controversial escape from Miami motivates this to a degree, but really a team which has been covertly piling up good result after good result is now at the top.  As always, 50% a team’s scoring margin, 50% the opponents margin against other teams … and so, a very AFC heavy Top 10 …

Rank Team W L T Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank Last Wk
1 Titans 5 2 0 15.577 2.542 13 2
2 Steelers 5 1 0 15.546 4.671 1 1
3 Jets 5 1 0 12.014 0.597 23 3
4 Patriots 5 1 0 11.231 2.856 11 5
5 Colts 4 2 0 8.975 0.308 24 6
6 Chiefs 4 2 0 8.242 0.158 26 11
7 Falcons 5 2 0 8.162 1.448 19 7
8 Giants 5 2 0 7.851 3.208 9 9
9 Ravens 5 2 0 7.36 2.502 14 4
10 Chargers 2 5 0 7.173 1.387 20 13
11 Eagles 4 3 0 6.651 2.544 12 8
12 Packers 4 3 0 6.108 0.18 25 12
13 Lions 1 5 0 6.043 3.543 7 10
14 Bears 4 3 0 4.798 1.583 18 14
15 Vikings 2 4 0 4.321 3.404 8 15
16 Redskins 4 3 0 4.048 2.976 10 17
17 Cowboys 1 5 0 2.824 3.574 6 18
18 Browns 2 5 0 2.744 4.173 3 25
19 Texans 4 2 0 2.711 3.878 5 21
20 Seahawks 4 2 0 2.204 -1.713 31 19
21 Dolphins 3 3 0 1.878 4.128 4 24
22 Raiders 3 4 0 1.731 -0.34 29 27
23 Bengals 2 4 0 1.628 0.794 22 22
24 Rams 3 4 0 0.379 -0.014 27 23
25 Saints 4 3 0 -0.457 -3.207 32 20
26 Broncos 2 5 0 -1.494 4.292 2 16
27 49ers 1 6 0 -3.357 1.643 16 26
28 Bucs 4 2 0 -4.035 -0.201 28 28
29 Cardinals 3 3 0 -5.422 2.369 15 29
30 Jaguars 3 4 0 -8.195 1.59 17 30
31 Panthers 1 5 0 -9.61 -1.61 30 31
32 Bills 0 6 0 -10.056 1.028 21 32

Some observations from this week’s madness?

  • One of my friends on Facebook complained about the Eagles being rated lower than the Falcons despite a head to head victory.  My standard response is that the model does not know how good the teams are.  Each week’s results reveal that – so an early victory gets better or worse with age.  This obviously is unfair to injury cases, but you have to take that as it is.  Also games like Detroit’s 44-6 win over the Rams and this weeks Raiders pasting of Denver skew a bit.
  • The plunge of the week was Denver sliding to 26.  I don’t think much needs to be said.
  • Big mover is Cleveland, with as stunning a result as Oakland’s.  And, to be fair, they have competed fairly well – and Peyton Hillis has been a covert fantasy hero.  At the top of the charts, the mover is Kansas City – who week after week is proving that they might really be a good team.  Certainly nobody else in the AFC West is.
  • Chargers and Cowboys are the poster boys for punching below their weight.  The Chargers in particular have the fundamentals (#1 offense, #1 defense) of an elite team, but the wins have not followed.  Their #10 ranking is fair (the model sees what it sees) but obviously they have the losses to prove any sort of anecdotal “they suck” case.
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