NCAA Power Rankings and BCS Do-Over – Week 9

With the beatdowns suffered by Missouri and Michigan State, the top of the table starts to clear up a bit.  As we have noted before, the strength of schedule tends to reveal itself as we go on, victories change in value, etc.  So the week to week results in and of themselves absolutely should NOT move the needle.  It is defining the body of work.  Anyway, as always, 50% of a team’s scoring margin, 50% is the scoring margin of its opponents against other teams.

Rank Team W L Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 Oregon 8 0 27.01 -1.96 96
2 Ohio State 8 1 26.67 2.78 51
3 TCU 9 0 25.46 -2.63 100
4 Boise State 7 0 24.94 -1.42 87
5 Iowa 6 2 24.11 5.18 27
6 Auburn 9 0 23.45 8.17 4
7 Missouri 7 1 23.44 7.19 11
8 Nebraska 7 1 22.61 3.18 48
9 Alabama 7 1 22.03 2.37 55
10 Oklahoma State 7 1 20.51 4.73 32
11 Utah 8 0 19.62 -6.26 113
12 Oklahoma 7 1 19.5 5.44 23
13 Virginia Tech 6 2 18.88 1.75 63
14 Stanford 7 1 18.19 -1.28 85
15 NC State 6 2 18.07 6.32 16
16 Hawaii 7 2 17.86 3.22 47
17 Oregon State 4 3 17.61 13.68 1
18 Michigan State 8 1 17.6 5.27 25
19 Illinois 5 3 17.57 7.32 10
20 Pittsburgh 5 3 17.14 6.24 18
21 Miami-FL 5 3 16.45 6.35 15
22 Florida 5 3 16.33 7.7 7
23 South Carolina 6 2 16.16 3.72 40
24 Arkansas 6 2 15.86 3.48 45
25 Arizona 7 1 15.82 -1.31 86
26 Florida State 6 2 15.82 0.85 71
27 USC 5 3 15.76 6.11 19
28 Mississippi State 7 2 14.25 3.02 49
29 LSU 7 1 14.04 2.86 50
30 Clemson 4 4 13.79 3.41 46
31 Texas A&M 5 3 13.78 1.88 60
32 Wisconsin 7 1 13.27 0.58 73
33 UCF 6 2 12.66 -4.4 106
34 Nevada 7 1 12.36 -6.83 114
35 Air Force 5 4 12.02 4.8 29
36 Georgia 4 5 11.96 2.07 58
37 California 4 4 11.35 3.88 39
38 West Virginia 5 3 10.85 -0.47 77
39 North Carolina 5 3 9.84 4.5 35
40 Penn State 5 3 9.67 5.6 22
41 Baylor 7 2 9.12 -2.24 99
42 Northern Illinois 7 2 9.07 -4.07 105
43 Notre Dame 4 5 8.85 6.96 13
44 Michigan 5 3 8.24 2.68 52
45 Kansas State 5 3 8.08 3.58 44
46 Houston 5 3 7.89 -5.64 111
47 Cincinnati 3 5 7.67 4.54 34
48 South Florida 4 3 7.03 -0.33 76
49 Army 5 3 6.8 -3.57 103
50 San Diego State 6 2 6.68 -8.25 119
51 Temple 7 2 6.59 -2.69 101
52 Kentucky 4 5 6.49 3.69 41
53 Georgia Tech 5 3 6.43 -1.01 81
54 Maryland 6 2 6.23 -2.21 98
55 East Carolina 5 3 6.12 4.74 31
56 Tulsa 5 3 5.78 -4.07 104
57 Arizona State 4 4 5.43 -1.78 94
58 Syracuse 6 2 5.34 -4.75 108
59 Texas 4 4 5.08 1.77 62
60 Louisville 4 4 5 -1.57 91
61 Toledo 6 3 4.76 2.26 57
62 SMU 5 4 4.09 1.87 61
63 UCLA 3 5 3.8 9.67 2
64 Troy 4 3 3.77 -1.91 95
65 Iowa State 5 4 3.03 5.31 24
66 Connecticut 4 4 2.83 -1.17 83
67 Rutgers 4 3 2.81 -0.12 75
68 Boston College 3 5 2.75 6.25 17
69 Navy 5 3 2.13 -3.18 102
70 Virginia 4 4 2.03 -1.53 90
71 Texas Tech 4 4 1.86 1.52 65
72 Fresno State 5 2 1.7 -7.09 115
73 Ohio 6 3 1.65 -8.15 118
74 Northwestern 6 2 1.5 -5.87 112
75 Idaho 4 4 1.3 -4.85 109
76 Ole Miss 3 5 0.99 2.67 53
77 Colorado 3 5 0.85 7.6 9
78 Southern Miss 5 3 0.7 -8.12 117
79 UAB 3 5 0.47 4.06 36
80 Louisiana Tech 3 5 0.22 5.25 26
81 Western Michigan 3 5 -0.1 -2.07 97
82 Arkansas State 3 5 -0.22 -0.9 79
83 Indiana 4 4 -0.29 -1.22 84
84 Washington 3 5 -0.51 9.3 3
85 Tennessee 2 6 -0.97 7.72 6
86 FIU 2 5 -1.26 1.1 68
87 Central Michigan 2 7 -2.01 -1.71 92
88 Kent State 4 4 -2.42 -8.05 116
89 BYU 3 5 -3.52 5.73 21
90 Minnesota 1 8 -4.84 4.55 33
91 Purdue 4 4 -5.11 0.42 74
92 Wyoming 2 7 -5.21 7.93 5
93 Utah State 2 6 -5.35 3.61 43
94 Miami-OH 5 4 -5.6 -0.71 78
95 Tulane 3 5 -5.61 1.89 59
96 Marshall 2 6 -5.78 7.69 8
97 Duke 2 6 -5.79 3.99 37
98 Rice 2 6 -5.98 5.83 20
99 Bowling Green 2 7 -6.16 1.03 69
100 Vanderbilt 2 6 -6.76 3.68 42
101 Florida Atlantic 2 5 -7.16 -1.16 82
102 Wake Forest 2 6 -7.17 3.99 38
103 UTEP 5 4 -7.69 -12.91 121
104 Colorado State 3 6 -8.22 2.61 54
105 MTSU 3 4 -8.42 -9.99 120
106 North Texas 2 6 -9.09 -4.56 107
107 LA-Monroe 4 4 -9.95 -1.51 88
108 UNLV 1 7 -11.07 7.18 12
109 Buffalo 2 6 -11.19 1.12 67
110 Washington State 1 8 -11.28 6.8 14
111 LA-Lafayette 2 6 -11.76 1.62 64
112 Ball State 2 7 -12.21 -5.3 110
113 Kansas 2 6 -12.93 -0.99 80
114 San Jose State 1 8 -12.93 4.76 30
115 Western Kentucky 1 7 -12.99 -1.71 93
116 Eastern Michigan 1 8 -15.93 0.91 70
117 Memphis 1 7 -16.13 5.03 28
118 FCS 7 77 -18.12 2.29 56
119 New Mexico State 2 6 -19.12 -1.53 89
120 Akron 0 9 -20.33 1.31 66
121 New Mexico 0 8 -21.57 0.71 72

Obviously, Oregon is starting to rise up, as their schedule is starting to improve – the chub of their nonconference slate is giving way to the very strong Pac 10. That offense is breathtaking, though it is hard to envision them getting through the minefield of that league unscathed still – USC’s defense is not a great test.

Anyway, how would this figure into a perfect BCS?

  1. National Title Game: Oregon vs TCU
  2. Other BCS qualifiers: ACC = Virginia Tech, Big East = Pittsburgh, SEC = Auburn, Big Ten = Ohio State (with the whole Big Ten being one-loss now), Big 12 = Nebraska.  With TCU in the national title game, the non-AQ criteria is no longer needed.
  3. Boise State as the #4 automatically gets in (the number 4 if not an automatic qualifier gets the bid)
  4. At large teams – we need two.  Of the Top 14, Iowa, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Utah, Oklahoma, Stanford.  With this, Iowa and Alabama get in.  Given that Alabama will play Auburn, this could change.

Slotting the teams using the BCS rules:

  • BCS Title Game: Oregon vs TCU
  • Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs Boise State
  • Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs Iowa
  • Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Alabama
  • Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs Pittsburgh

If we use the 24-team playoff paradigm – the 11 automatic bids:

  • Pac 10: Oregon
  • Big Ten: Ohio State
  • Mountain West: TCU
  • WAC: Boise State
  • SEC: Auburn
  • Big 12: Nebraska
  • ACC: Virginia Tech
  • Big East: Pittsburgh
  • Conference USA: Central Florida
  • MAC: Northern Illinois
  • Sun Belt: Troy

13 at-large teams, no more than 3 per conference if less than 12 teams, no less than 4 otherwise

  • Big Ten (2): Iowa, Michigan State
  • Big 12 (3): Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
  • SEC (3): Alabama, South Carolina, LSU
  • Mountain West (1): Utah
  • Pac 10 (2): Stanford, Arizona
  • ACC (1): NC State
  • WAC (1): Hawaii

The teams, in order: Oregon, TCU, Ohio State, Boise State, Iowa, Auburn, Nebraska, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Utah, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Stanford, NC State, Hawaii, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, Arizona, LSU, Central Florida, Northern Illinois, Troy

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