2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 1

Here we are, the first rankings of the year, after 1 week of action.  The method has tweaked a little this year, so here is what you need to know.

Offense: (Points per possession x League Average Possessions per game) = the points the team scores in an average speed game

Defense: the points a team allows in an average speed game adjusted to account for free throws, since a team defense should not receive credit for the ability of their opponents to shoot freebies.

Road: 3.5 points is the assumed home court advantage, so over an 82 game season this number should be 1.75 (half the games played on the road).  This measures on a 0-3.5 scale how “road heavy” a team’s schedule is.

SOS: The possession-normalized scoring margin of a team’s opponents when not playing that team.

Rating: Offense – Defense + Road + SOS

So, with that out of the way, how did Week 1 go?

Rank Team W L Off Def Road SOS Rating
1 Heat 3 1 100.764 (13) 87.714 (2) 2.625 7.105 (6) 22.78
2 Nuggets 2 1 102.524 (8) 93.83 (4) 2.333 4.432 (12) 15.459
3 Lakers 3 0 105.416 (5) 96.359 (11) 1.167 5.161 (9) 15.384
4 Hornets 3 0 101.312 (10) 96.014 (10) 1.167 8.579 (4) 15.044
5 Grizzlies 2 1 96.563 (22) 95.151 (7) 1.167 11.273 (1) 13.851
6 Magic 1 1 92.526 (27) 90.833 (3) 1.75 9.253 (3) 12.697
7 Mavericks 2 1 100.504 (14) 86.984 (1) 1.167 -4.57 (28) 10.117
8 Bulls 2 1 101.293 (11) 96.43 (12) 1.167 2.616 (14) 8.646
9 Knicks 1 2 97.334 (20) 97.829 (13) 2.333 6.521 (8) 8.359
10 Suns 1 2 104.33 (6) 106.081 (27) 2.333 6.537 (7) 7.119
11 Rockets 0 3 103.533 (7) 106.733 (29) 2.333 7.908 (5) 7.041
12 Celtics 2 1 95.031 (23) 94.564 (5) 1.167 4.846 (11) 6.48
13 Blazers 3 1 105.819 (4) 103.264 (23) 2.625 0.211 (17) 5.391
14 Sixers 0 3 93.242 (26) 100.078 (17) 1.167 9.36 (2) 3.691
15 Raptors 1 2 99.01 (17) 95.331 (8) 1.167 -1.549 (20) 3.297
16 Warriors 2 1 106.8 (2) 102.871 (21) 1.167 -1.967 (21) 3.128
17 Hawks 3 0 107.66 (1) 99.232 (15) 2.333 -9.148 (30) 1.614
18 Jazz 1 2 97.444 (19) 100.548 (18) 2.333 1.16 (15) 0.389
19 Spurs 2 1 101.155 (12) 98.696 (14) 1.167 -3.395 (26) 0.231
20 Nets 2 1 99.754 (15) 105.933 (26) 0 4.883 (10) -1.296
21 Bucks 1 2 94.3 (24) 95.777 (9) 2.333 -2.242 (22) -1.386
22 Timberwolves 1 2 92.15 (28) 94.884 (6) 1.167 0.113 (18) -1.454
23 Kings 3 1 106.536 (3) 107.93 (30) 2.625 -4.406 (27) -3.174
24 Pistons 0 3 97.991 (18) 101.619 (19) 2.333 -2.35 (23) -3.645
25 Pacers 2 1 102.068 (9) 103.077 (22) 2.333 -5.317 (29) -3.992
26 Thunder 2 1 99.695 (16) 102.654 (20) 1.167 -2.545 (24) -4.337
27 Bobcats 0 3 97.306 (21) 106.555 (28) 2.333 1.141 (16) -5.775
28 Cavaliers 1 2 93.644 (25) 100.011 (16) 1.167 -0.634 (19) -5.835
29 Clippers 0 4 88.302 (30) 104.543 (25) 0.875 3.475 (13) -11.892
30 Wizards 0 2 88.455 (29) 104.519 (24) 3.5 -3.312 (25) -15.877

Some observations from Week 1:

  • The Heat’s defense has been sensational.  Considering that they have not allowed 90 points yet, and three of those opponents (Nets, Celtics, Magic) have the size down low to expose an alleged vulnerability, this is a bad bad sign for the rest of the league.  If the offense gets figured out, this could be as good as they had dreamed.
  • Note the very skewed strength of schedules.  This will obviously compress as the season goes on.
  • The Suns are a paltry 20th in the league in pace so far, and the Rockets are 2nd?  This is early season for you.
  • A new feature we’ll have here, now that the Clippers are off to such a horrible start is the Baron Davis watch.  I wondered if having a star talent like Blake Griffin would get Baron Davis to play like the guy who is such a nightmare of skills.  Alas, through 3 games (missing one with a sore knee) Davis is 1-9 from three point land.  Hooray self sabotage!
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