College Football Power Rankings and BCS Do-Over: Week 10

Another crazy week in football, although this week the top teams managed to avoid the major upset bug – although it looks like Alabama is off the major radar now.  Where does that leave our teams? As usual, the rankings are a combination of scoring margin with the scoring margin of opponents in their other games:

Rank Team W L Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 TCU 10 0 29.03 0.26 79
2 Boise State 8 0 27.73 0.73 70
3 Oregon 9 0 27.18 -2.18 100
4 Ohio State 8 1 26.43 2.54 54
5 Oklahoma State 8 1 22.89 5.87 10
6 Auburn 10 0 22.56 5.51 14
7 Iowa 7 2 22.23 4.45 31
8 Alabama 7 2 22.06 4.53 30
9 Stanford 8 1 20.49 0.41 75
10 Missouri 7 2 19.49 5.44 16
11 Nebraska 8 1 19.12 1.34 63
12 Arkansas 7 2 18.35 4.63 29
13 Virginia Tech 7 2 18.14 2.14 58
14 Florida 6 3 17.8 6.25 9
15 Utah 8 1 17.24 -1.98 99
16 Oklahoma 7 2 16.9 5.57 13
17 Michigan State 9 1 16.74 3.34 45
18 NC State 6 3 16.41 5.69 12
19 Oregon State 4 3 16.13 11.7 1
20 Illinois 5 4 15.91 6.64 5
21 Miami-FL 6 3 15.89 6.25 8
22 Pittsburgh 5 3 15.79 4.89 24
23 Texas A&M 6 3 15.73 3.59 39
24 LSU 8 1 15.72 5.44 15
25 Nevada 8 1 15.62 -5.33 112
26 Hawaii 7 3 14.93 4.73 26
27 Mississippi State 7 2 14.59 3.37 44
28 Florida State 6 3 14.39 1.31 65
29 South Carolina 6 3 14.15 5.42 17
30 Air Force 6 4 14.14 5.29 19
31 USC 6 3 13.93 5.23 20
32 Clemson 5 4 13.58 4.25 37
33 Arizona 7 2 13.52 0.68 71
34 UCF 7 2 13.43 -2.9 104
35 Wisconsin 8 1 13.37 -0.63 86
36 Georgia 5 5 12.61 0.21 80
37 West Virginia 5 3 10.21 -1.1 89
38 Penn State 6 3 9.98 4.81 25
39 Kansas State 6 3 9.92 3.14 48
40 North Carolina 6 3 9.71 4.35 34
41 Notre Dame 4 5 9.67 7.78 4
42 Northern Illinois 7 2 9.07 -4.07 110
43 California 5 4 8.7 0.9 68
44 Michigan 6 3 8.69 3.52 40
45 Temple 8 2 8.52 -1.98 98
46 Kentucky 5 5 7.61 2.29 56
47 Baylor 7 3 7.45 -0.42 84
48 Houston 5 4 7.43 -3.82 109
49 Louisville 5 4 7.38 0.27 78
50 Maryland 6 3 7.3 0.08 82
51 South Florida 5 3 7.06 0.49 73
52 Cincinnati 3 5 6.8 3.68 38
53 San Diego State 7 2 6.71 -7.13 116
54 Tulsa 6 3 6.62 -5.74 114
55 Georgia Tech 5 4 6.59 0.37 76
56 Arizona State 4 5 6.26 -0.44 85
57 Navy 6 3 6.13 -2.48 102
58 Syracuse 6 3 4.37 -3.71 108
59 Army 5 4 4.29 -2.71 103
60 Toledo 6 3 4.16 1.66 61
61 Texas Tech 5 4 3.92 2.84 51
62 Troy 5 3 3.85 -2.31 101
63 UCLA 3 5 3.7 9.58 3
64 Iowa State 5 5 3.66 5.81 11
65 Arkansas State 4 5 3.43 -0.18 83
66 SMU 5 5 3.35 2.4 55
67 Rutgers 4 4 3.22 0.34 77
68 Connecticut 4 4 2.63 -1.37 91
69 East Carolina 5 4 2.56 5.17 21
70 Ohio 7 3 2.49 -8.04 118
71 Fresno State 6 2 2.26 -6.61 115
72 Ole Miss 4 5 1.77 0.82 69
73 Indiana 4 5 1.62 1.34 64
74 Texas 4 5 1.57 1.02 67
75 Boston College 4 5 1.51 3.12 49
76 Southern Miss 6 3 1.4 -8.6 119
77 Louisiana Tech 3 6 0.27 5.4 18
78 Tennessee 3 6 0.14 4.28 36
79 Northwestern 6 3 -0.22 -5.61 113
80 Western Michigan 3 6 -0.27 -1.96 96
81 Virginia 4 5 -0.93 -3.05 106
82 BYU 4 5 -0.95 3.39 43
83 Washington 3 6 -1.03 11.11 2
84 FIU 3 5 -1.05 0.13 81
85 Central Michigan 3 7 -1.27 -1.4 92
86 Idaho 4 5 -1.33 -2.91 105
87 UAB 3 6 -1.78 2.97 50
88 Colorado 3 6 -1.95 4.44 32
89 Kent State 4 5 -2.31 -5.31 111
90 Marshall 3 6 -3.76 6.27 7
91 Duke 3 6 -3.85 3.4 41
92 UTEP 6 4 -5.15 -11.25 121
93 Bowling Green 2 7 -5.32 1.88 59
94 Miami-OH 5 4 -5.55 -0.66 87
95 Minnesota 1 9 -5.67 4.73 27
96 Purdue 4 5 -5.81 1.44 62
97 Tulane 3 6 -5.85 2.59 53
98 Utah State 3 6 -6.06 1.14 66
99 Florida Atlantic 3 5 -6.45 -1.76 94
100 Colorado State 3 7 -6.62 3.28 46
101 Wyoming 2 8 -7.1 4.68 28
102 Wake Forest 2 7 -7.63 3.39 42
103 North Texas 2 7 -7.99 -3.29 107
104 LA-Monroe 4 5 -8.67 -0.78 88
105 Vanderbilt 2 7 -8.81 4.3 35
106 Rice 2 7 -8.99 4.92 23
107 MTSU 3 5 -10.49 -8.93 120
108 Washington State 1 9 -10.56 6.42 6
109 Buffalo 2 7 -10.7 1.74 60
110 Kansas 3 6 -11.26 -1.43 93
111 LA-Lafayette 2 7 -11.78 2.16 57
112 Western Kentucky 1 8 -12.07 -1.93 95
113 Ball State 3 7 -13.01 -7.49 117
114 San Jose State 1 8 -13.29 4.41 33
115 UNLV 1 8 -15.1 5.01 22
116 Eastern Michigan 1 8 -16.38 0.45 74
117 New Mexico State 2 7 -18 -1.98 97
118 FCS 7 80 -18.13 2.61 52
119 Memphis 1 8 -19.02 3.17 47
120 Akron 0 10 -19.28 0.54 72
121 New Mexico 1 8 -20.63 -1.16 90

As we hurtle towards the end of the season, slotting the BCS teams is becoming easier and easier. Looking at the standings in the BCS conferences:

  • ACC: Virginia Tech has a near commanding two game lead in the Coastal Division while Florida State, Maryland and NC State all have two losses in the Atlantic Division.  Looking at the candidates and rankings, 13th ranked Virginia Tech is the projection.
  • Big East: Pittsburgh has a two game lead in the loss column, and are also the highest ranked Big East team (22nd)
  • Big 12: Nebraska in the North leads, Oklahoma State in the South lead both with only one conference loss.  In this case, we have the evidence of a head to head meeting, so while Oklahoma is higher ranked, we go with Nebraska in projection.
  • SEC: Auburn has a 1 game lead in the West over LSU, which is extended by Auburn’s win in the head to head.  Florida and South Carolina play for the de-facto East title this weekend, both 4-3 heading in.  Auburn is the clear projection.
  • Pac-10: Oregon, period.
  • Big Ten: Four teams with one loss.  We go to the rankings for our answer and it comes up Ohio State

TCU and Boise State are #1 and #2 this week.  That said, with the way the BCS works, there is almost no chance both will enter the BCS and be the top 2 teams.  As such, a little finessing is still in order, and TCU and Oregon get the top 2 slots.

  • BCS Championship Game: TCU vs Oregon

The Rose Bowl loses a team.  The Rose Bowl has its choice of Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Iowa, Alabama, Stanford and Arkansas.  The guess here is the Rose Bowl sticks with the tradition as much as possible.

  • Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs Stanford

The other bowls choose in the order of Sugar, Orange, Fiesta with the team list above.  Slotting this, a sensible arrangement?

  • Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs Oklahoma State
  • Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Alabama
  • Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs Pittsburgh
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