College Football Power Rankings and BCS Do-Over: Week 12

This week had a noticeable lack of marquee games, although Ohio State’s win over Iowa makes the Big Ten title chase ever more muddled.  Not a whole lot new in the rankings, let’s see where this shakes out in our perfect bowl lineup.  The rankings, as always is a combination of scoring margin and opponents scoring margin (with some adjustments for home field, diminishing value of blowouts and cleaning up double counting):

Rank Team W L Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 Boise State 10 0 30.5 1.92 54
2 TCU 11 0 27.89 1.27 65
3 Ohio State 10 1 26.49 4.18 25
4 Oregon 10 0 25.56 -1.41 98
5 Auburn 11 0 22.65 5.52 11
6 Alabama 9 2 22.38 3.04 36
7 Oklahoma State 10 1 21.39 2.62 44
8 Stanford 10 1 21.35 1.26 66
9 Oklahoma 9 2 20.66 5.64 8
10 Arkansas 9 2 19.78 4.64 19
11 Virginia Tech 9 2 19.3 2.85 39
12 South Carolina 8 3 19.15 6.51 4
13 Iowa 7 4 19.05 4.82 17
14 Missouri 9 2 18.78 4.78 18
15 Texas A&M 8 3 17.59 5.98 7
16 Nebraska 9 2 17.21 1.07 69
17 Wisconsin 10 1 16.46 -0.31 85
18 NC State 8 3 15.79 3.47 30
19 Florida State 8 3 15.74 3.17 33
20 LSU 10 1 15.71 3.49 29
21 Nevada 10 1 15.39 -5.34 117
22 Miami-FL 7 4 15.33 6.15 5
23 Michigan State 10 1 14.89 2.34 49
24 Florida 7 4 14.8 4.35 23
25 Notre Dame 6 5 14.74 8.74 2
26 Hawaii 8 3 14.32 2.23 50
27 Pittsburgh 6 4 14.27 4.34 24
28 Utah 9 2 14.03 -0.43 87
29 UCF 8 3 13.8 -1.84 105
30 Northern Illinois 9 2 13.76 -3.02 112
31 West Virginia 7 3 13.63 0.83 73
32 Illinois 6 5 13.22 4.08 26
33 Clemson 6 5 12.94 3.12 34
34 Mississippi State 7 4 12.6 5.55 10
35 Georgia 5 6 12.49 2.54 46
36 Air Force 8 4 12.01 1.01 72
37 Arizona 7 3 11.79 0.54 78
38 Oregon State 5 4 11.73 7.01 3
39 USC 7 4 10.82 5.43 12
40 San Diego State 7 4 9.36 -1.46 100
41 Penn State 7 4 8.52 4.61 20
42 California 5 6 8.49 5.1 14
43 Maryland 7 4 8.46 1.77 58
44 Tulsa 8 3 8.41 -2.57 109
45 North Carolina 6 5 7.87 5.3 13
46 Temple 8 3 7.84 -0.98 95
47 Navy 8 3 7.49 -1.1 96
48 Southern Miss 8 3 7.44 -3.61 115
49 Arizona State 4 6 7.18 1.55 59
50 Kansas State 6 5 6.98 2.43 48
51 Cincinnati 4 6 6.87 3.77 27
52 Kentucky 5 5 6.86 1.54 61
53 Michigan 7 4 6.74 3.01 37
54 South Florida 6 4 6.45 1.25 67
55 Louisville 5 6 6.44 1.53 62
56 Houston 5 6 6.12 -1.49 101
57 Connecticut 6 4 5.41 -0.04 82
58 Baylor 7 5 5.24 2.05 52
59 Ohio 8 3 4.88 -5.73 118
60 Tennessee 5 6 4.04 2.83 40
61 Texas 5 6 3.87 2.14 51
62 Toledo 7 4 3.83 2.76 42
63 Army 6 5 3.78 -1.63 102
64 Western Michigan 5 6 3.57 -2.04 106
65 SMU 6 5 3.38 1.25 68
66 Georgia Tech 6 5 3.25 -0.48 90
67 Fresno State 6 4 3.12 -0.38 86
68 BYU 6 5 3.02 0.62 76
69 Syracuse 7 4 2.91 -2.75 111
70 Texas Tech 6 5 2.77 1.54 60
71 FIU 5 5 2.12 -1.43 99
72 Boston College 6 5 1.69 1.87 55
73 Central Michigan 3 8 0.81 0.47 79
74 Idaho 5 6 0.8 0.19 81
75 Iowa State 5 7 0.65 4.98 16
76 Louisiana Tech 4 6 0.61 2.79 41
77 East Carolina 6 5 0.49 3.08 35
78 Northwestern 7 4 0.41 -2.45 108
79 Colorado 5 6 0.08 2.76 43
80 Arkansas State 4 7 0.03 -1.7 103
81 Rutgers 4 6 -0.12 0.63 75
82 Washington 4 6 -0.37 8.86 1
83 Troy 5 5 -0.69 -0.44 89
84 UCLA 3 6 -0.73 5.99 6
85 Ole Miss 4 7 -1.06 1.33 63
86 Indiana 4 7 -2.57 1.93 53
87 Virginia 4 7 -2.77 -2.73 110
88 Minnesota 2 9 -3.72 5.05 15
89 Purdue 4 7 -3.98 3 38
90 UAB 4 7 -4.03 -0.5 91
91 UTEP 6 6 -4.31 -6.87 120
92 Duke 3 8 -4.45 2.53 47
93 Kent State 5 7 -4.59 -4.44 116
94 Marshall 4 7 -4.6 3.2 31
95 Miami-OH 7 4 -6.04 -3.4 113
96 North Texas 3 8 -7.16 -3.41 114
97 Bowling Green 2 9 -7.37 0.2 80
98 Wyoming 3 9 -7.47 1.3 64
99 Rice 3 8 -7.51 1.83 56
100 Utah State 4 7 -7.64 -0.43 88
101 Washington State 2 9 -8.01 5.56 9
102 Tulane 4 7 -8.6 1.03 71
103 LA-Monroe 5 6 -8.63 -0.08 84
104 Florida Atlantic 4 6 -8.91 -2.34 107
105 Wake Forest 2 9 -9.03 4.51 21
106 Vanderbilt 2 9 -9.61 3.71 28
107 Western Kentucky 2 9 -9.71 -1.73 104
108 MTSU 4 6 -10.52 -9.12 121
109 UNLV 2 9 -11.01 4.45 22
110 Kansas 3 8 -11.03 1.06 70
111 Ball State 4 8 -11.4 -5.76 119
112 Colorado State 3 9 -12.09 1.81 57
113 LA-Lafayette 2 9 -12.53 0.56 77
114 Buffalo 2 9 -12.69 -0.59 93
115 San Jose State 1 10 -14.3 3.2 32
116 Eastern Michigan 2 9 -14.67 -0.54 92
117 Akron 0 11 -18.53 -0.05 83
118 FCS 7 83 -18.61 2.56 45
119 New Mexico State 2 9 -19.59 -1.39 97
120 Memphis 1 10 -19.61 0.73 74
121 New Mexico 1 10 -21.42 -0.92 94

At this point, Boise State staying number one is not a surprise. Their schedule, at least the WAC part of it, is backloaded. Nevada comes next weekend, and with it another big chance to score some points.

So what do we know about the BCS champions:

  • SEC:  It’s Auburn vs South Carolina.  Let’s pick Auburn
  • Big Ten: It’s all muddled up.  The BCS says Wisconsin, I say Ohio State
  • ACC: Virginia Tech vs somebody.  Doesn’t matter who.  Virginia Tech
  • Big East: Nobody preferably, but gotta choose Pittsburgh
  • Pac 10: Oregon
  • Big 12: Oklahoma or Okie State in one division, who knows what in the other.  Oklahoma State gets the nod

The BCS Title Game is still the terribly neat (though highly unlikely in real life) Boise State vs TCU

Using this logic and these champions that leaves two slots for at-large teams.  Of the Top 14, this leaves: Alabama, Stanford, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri.  Considering that my scenario above assumes Alabama and Oklahoma lose next week, we add two more teams to consideration, Texas A&M and Wisconsin.  So using this, Stanford and Wisconsin get the nod.  The BCS thusly becomes:

  • Title Game: Boise State vs TCU
  • Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs Oregon
  • Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs Wisconsin
  • Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs Stanford
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