NCAA Power Rankings and Playoff Stuff – Week 13

Boise State’s shocking loss to Nevada takes them out of the real world BCS equation.  However, the computer recognizes that Nevada is actually really really good.

Rank Team W L Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 Boise State 10 1 29.52 3.5 31
2 Ohio State 11 1 26.71 3.83 27
3 TCU 12 0 26.34 -0.98 96
4 Oregon 11 0 25.91 -0.34 85
5 Stanford 11 1 22.6 1.44 62
6 Auburn 12 0 22.18 6.1 5
7 Alabama 9 3 21.48 3.83 26
8 Oklahoma 10 2 21.09 6.53 4
9 Oklahoma State 10 2 20.52 3.81 28
10 Virginia Tech 10 2 19.8 2.3 46
11 South Carolina 9 3 19.74 6.03 6
12 Arkansas 10 2 19.53 4.99 13
13 Missouri 10 2 18.8 3.64 30
14 Wisconsin 11 1 18.15 -0.14 84
15 Nebraska 10 2 17.65 0.52 77
16 Texas A&M 9 3 17.08 5.56 8
17 Florida State 9 3 16.95 3.43 32
18 Nevada 11 1 16.64 -2.61 112
19 Iowa 7 5 16.12 3.04 36
20 West Virginia 8 3 15.76 1.56 60
21 LSU 10 2 14.94 4.1 20
22 NC State 8 4 14.81 3.81 29
23 Northern Illinois 10 2 14.64 -3.65 117
24 Michigan State 11 1 14.44 2.15 50
25 Notre Dame 7 5 14.26 8.13 1
26 Hawaii 9 3 13.9 0.04 82
27 Miami-FL 7 5 13.64 5.48 9
28 Illinois 6 5 13.01 3.87 25
29 Utah 10 2 12.91 -0.42 88
30 UCF 9 3 12.83 -3.47 116
31 Florida 7 5 12.74 4.87 15
32 Georgia 6 6 11.98 2.19 49
33 Air Force 8 4 11.84 0.84 71
34 Pittsburgh 6 5 11.59 4.84 16
35 Mississippi State 8 4 11.33 3.92 23
36 Arizona 7 4 11.32 2.5 43
37 Clemson 6 6 11.13 3.97 22
38 USC 7 5 9.78 5.18 11
39 San Diego State 8 4 9.71 -2.79 113
40 Maryland 8 4 9.44 2.73 39
41 Oregon State 5 5 9.15 8.02 2
42 Tulsa 9 3 8.72 -1.84 104
43 Navy 8 3 7.83 -0.77 92
44 Penn State 7 5 7.72 4.63 18
45 Arizona State 5 6 7.65 0.63 75
46 Southern Miss 8 4 7.64 -2.28 109
47 Louisville 6 6 7.47 0.54 76
48 Kansas State 7 5 6.63 1.5 61
49 North Carolina 7 5 6.37 3.31 33
50 South Florida 7 4 6.35 1.03 68
51 Connecticut 7 4 6.31 -0.56 89
52 Kentucky 5 6 5.85 1.6 59
53 California 5 7 5.85 2.99 37
54 Michigan 7 5 5.8 4.6 19
55 Western Michigan 6 6 5.73 -2.15 107
56 Temple 8 4 5.7 -1.01 98
57 Cincinnati 4 7 5.13 3.9 24
58 Baylor 7 5 5.02 1.83 55
59 Houston 5 7 4.78 -1.24 102
60 Tennessee 6 6 4.4 2.46 44
61 BYU 6 6 4.26 1.84 54
62 SMU 7 5 4.02 1.19 65
63 Texas Tech 7 5 4.01 1.64 58
64 Toledo 8 4 3.96 2.06 51
65 Texas 5 7 3.84 2.84 38
66 Army 6 5 3.47 -1.94 105
67 Georgia Tech 6 6 3.32 0.27 80
68 Ohio 8 4 3.24 -4.95 118
69 Boston College 7 5 3.17 2.29 47
70 Fresno State 7 4 2.8 -0.65 90
71 FIU 6 5 2.33 -1.53 103
72 Syracuse 7 5 2.01 -2.42 110
73 Idaho 5 7 1.08 0.48 78
74 Arkansas State 4 8 0.57 -0.72 91
75 Iowa State 5 7 0.56 4.89 14
76 East Carolina 6 6 0.28 3.24 34
77 Troy 6 5 0.06 -0.99 97
78 Central Michigan 3 9 0.02 0.33 79
79 Washington 5 6 -0.05 7.75 3
80 Louisiana Tech 5 6 -0.39 0.64 74
81 Colorado 5 7 -0.4 4.1 21
82 Northwestern 7 5 -1.13 -0.84 94
83 Kent State 6 7 -1.44 -3 115
84 Ole Miss 4 8 -1.45 1.41 63
85 Minnesota 3 9 -1.82 5.97 7
86 Rutgers 4 7 -2.48 0.65 73
87 UCLA 3 7 -2.54 5.26 10
88 Indiana 5 7 -2.73 0.85 70
89 Virginia 4 8 -3.47 -1.22 101
90 Miami-OH 8 4 -3.56 -2.81 114
91 Marshall 5 7 -3.92 1.98 52
92 Duke 3 9 -4.26 2.56 41
93 UAB 4 8 -4.26 -0.91 95
94 UTEP 6 6 -4.35 -6.91 120
95 Purdue 4 8 -4.42 2.23 48
96 North Texas 3 9 -6.54 -2.44 111
97 Rice 4 8 -7.2 0.95 69
98 Wake Forest 3 9 -7.28 3.1 35
99 Utah State 4 7 -7.31 -0.1 83
100 MTSU 5 6 -7.6 -8.51 121
101 Wyoming 3 9 -7.7 1.07 66
102 Washington State 2 9 -8.74 4.83 17
103 Bowling Green 2 10 -8.78 0.74 72
104 LA-Monroe 5 7 -9.13 -1.22 100
105 Western Kentucky 2 10 -9.37 -1.18 99
106 Tulane 4 8 -9.73 0.06 81
107 Florida Atlantic 4 7 -9.93 -2.09 106
108 Ball State 4 8 -10.77 -5.13 119
109 UNLV 2 10 -11.56 5.04 12
110 Kansas 3 9 -11.71 1.7 56
111 LA-Lafayette 3 9 -12.01 -0.38 86
112 Vanderbilt 2 10 -12.06 1.9 53
113 Colorado State 3 9 -12.24 1.66 57
114 Buffalo 2 10 -13.71 -2.25 108
115 San Jose State 1 11 -14.23 2.39 45
116 Eastern Michigan 2 10 -14.82 1.06 67
117 Akron 1 11 -17.06 -0.78 93
118 Memphis 1 11 -17.81 2.51 42
119 FCS 7 83 -18.52 2.64 40
120 New Mexico State 2 10 -19.7 -0.39 87
121 New Mexico 1 11 -20.33 1.38 64

Using the basic BCS logic, where does this take us relative to a proper BCS slotting?

Conference Champs:

  • Oregon clinches the Pac 10
  • Virginia Tech vs Florida State for the ACC title … pick = Virginia Tech
  • Ohio State, Michigan State or Wisconsin for the Big Ten … pick = Ohio State, ironically due to what Wisconsin did for the quality of the Buckeyes’ lone loss.
  • Connecticut, West Virginia or Pittsburgh for the Big East … UConn has the fewest strings.
  • South Carolina vs Auburn for the SEC title … pick = Auburn
  • Oklahoma vs Nebraska for the Big 12 title … pick = Oklahoma
  • With their unbeatedness, Auburn vs Oregon is the sensible 1 vs 2, although the computer argues Boise State vs Ohio State, and Oregon vs TCU makes sense.  We’ll stick with the records now I suppose – some art here.
  • Other eligible teams in my BCS rankings (we need 3 more) – Boise State, Stanford, Alabama, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Arkansas, Missouri, Wisconsin.  The picks using this are Wisconsin, Arkansas and Stanford.

Slotting this, the result is:

  • BCS Title Game: Oregon vs Auburn
  • Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs TCU
  • Sugar Bowl: Wisconsin vs Arkansas
  • Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Connecticut
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs Stanford

One thing that interested me though was – what if we used our rankings as a component for reprising the original BCS formula, something meant as an objective criteria we could use to figure out who should be playing for the national title?  If we used that, the components were:

  1. Average of the Coaches and AP Polls
  2. Computer Ratings (hey, I have one of those)
  3. Strength of Schedule (hey, I have that too)
  4. Number of losses

The calculation turns out …

Poll Avg CPU SoS Losses Total
Auburn 1.5 6 0.2 0 7.700
Oregon 1.5 4 3.44 0 8.940
TCU 3 3 3.84 0 9.840
Ohio State 6 2 1.08 1 10.080
Stanford 4.5 5 2.48 1 12.980
Boise State 10 1 1.24 1 13.240
Oklahoma 9.5 8 0.16 2 19.660
Arkansas 7.5 12 0.52 2 22.020
Wisconsin 4.5 14 3.36 1 22.860
Oklahoma State 15 9 1.12 2 27.120
Virginia Tech 13.5 10 1.84 2 27.340
Alabama 16.5 7 1.04 3 27.540
Missouri 13.5 13 1.2 2 29.700
Nebraska 13 15 3.08 2 33.080
South Carolina 19.5 11 0.24 3 33.740
LSU 10.5 21 0.8 2 34.300
Michigan State 7.5 24 2 1 34.500
Texas A&M 18.5 16 0.32 3 37.820
Nevada 15.5 18 4.48 1 38.980
Florida State 20.5 17 1.28 3 41.780
West Virginia 24.5 20 2.4 3 49.900
Northern Illinois 24.5 23 4.68 2 54.180
Utah 20.5 29 3.52 2 55.020
Hawaii 25.5 26 3.28 3 57.780
Arizona 24.5 36 1.72 4 66.220

 

Which might actually not be that far off from the eye test …

Poll Avg CPU SoS Losses Total
Auburn 1.5 6 0.2 0 7.700
Oregon 1.5 4 3.44 0 8.940
TCU 3 3 3.84 0 9.840
Stanford 4.5 5 2.48 1 12.980
Wisconsin 4.5 14 3.36 1 22.860
Ohio State 6 2 1.08 1 10.080
Arkansas 7.5 12 0.52 2 22.020
Michigan State 7.5 24 2 1 34.500
Oklahoma 9.5 8 0.16 2 19.660
LSU 10.5 21 0.8 2 34.300
Boise State 10 1 1.24 1 13.240
Missouri 13.5 13 1.2 2 29.700
Nebraska 13 15 3.08 2 33.080
Oklahoma State 15 9 1.12 2 27.120
Virginia Tech 13.5 10 1.84 2 27.340
Alabama 16.5 7 1.04 3 27.540
Nevada 15.5 18 4.48 1 38.980
Texas A&M 18.5 16 0.32 3 37.820
Utah 20.5 29 3.52 2 55.020
South Carolina 19.5 11 0.24 3 33.740
Florida State 20.5 17 1.28 3 41.780
Arizona 24.5 36 1.72 4 66.220
West Virginia 24.5 20 2.4 3 49.900
Northern Illinois 24.5 23 4.68 2 54.180
Hawaii 25.5 26 3.28 3 57.780
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