NCAA Power Rankings and Playoff Nonsense: Week 14

Well, Oregon and Auburn finish unbeaten, TCU is left on the outside looking in – and the BCS … come on, who cares about this stuff?  Instead, let’s start with the Final power rankings.  Sure there is Army-Navy next week, but seriously, the needle should not move much anymore.

Rank Team W L Margin Sched Rtg SOS Rank
1 Boise State 11 1 28.94 2.42 43
2 Ohio State 11 1 26.63 3.76 25
3 TCU 12 0 25.99 -1.33 100
4 Oregon 12 0 25.58 -0.19 85
5 Auburn 13 0 24.23 6.81 5
6 Stanford 11 1 22.44 1.27 68
7 Alabama 9 3 21.37 3.73 26
8 Oklahoma State 10 2 20.58 3.87 24
9 Oklahoma 11 2 20.54 6.87 4
10 Virginia Tech 11 2 20.19 3.19 32
11 Arkansas 10 2 19.31 4.76 12
12 Missouri 10 2 18.52 3.35 31
13 Wisconsin 11 1 18.15 -0.14 83
14 Nebraska 10 3 17.3 1.72 57
15 South Carolina 9 4 17.14 7.07 3
16 Nevada 12 1 16.91 -2.51 112
17 Texas A&M 9 3 16.64 5.12 11
18 Florida State 9 4 16.08 4.44 16
19 Iowa 7 5 16.05 2.96 35
20 West Virginia 9 3 15.67 0.9 74
21 LSU 10 2 15.09 4.26 19
22 Notre Dame 7 5 14.45 8.32 2
23 NC State 8 4 14.37 3.37 30
24 Michigan State 11 1 14.17 1.88 55
25 Hawaii 10 3 13.99 -1.34 102
26 Miami-FL 7 5 13.46 5.3 9
27 Utah 10 2 13.02 -0.31 88
28 Northern Illinois 10 3 13.01 -3.49 117
29 UCF 10 3 12.83 -2.98 115
30 Pittsburgh 7 5 12.32 4.35 17
31 Florida 7 5 12.2 4.33 18
32 Illinois 6 6 12.16 3.66 27
33 Georgia 6 6 11.77 1.98 52
34 Air Force 8 4 11.65 0.65 77
35 Mississippi State 8 4 11.45 4.03 21
36 Arizona 7 5 10.89 2.89 38
37 Clemson 6 6 10.75 3.58 28
38 USC 8 5 9.8 4.2 20
39 San Diego State 8 4 9.41 -3.09 116
40 Oregon State 5 6 9.35 9.87 1
41 Maryland 8 4 9.28 2.57 39
42 Tulsa 9 3 8.65 -1.91 106
43 Arizona State 6 6 8.13 1.31 66
44 Penn State 7 5 7.67 4.59 13
45 Navy 8 3 7.6 -0.99 93
46 Louisville 6 6 7.14 0.21 79
47 Southern Miss 8 4 7.13 -2.79 113
48 Connecticut 8 4 6.65 -0.18 84
49 Kansas State 7 5 6.39 1.27 69
50 North Carolina 7 5 6.04 2.98 34
51 South Florida 7 5 5.85 1.22 70
52 California 5 7 5.8 2.94 36
53 Michigan 7 5 5.72 4.51 14
54 Kentucky 5 6 5.61 1.36 65
55 Western Michigan 6 6 5.59 -2.28 108
56 Temple 8 4 5.57 -1.14 95
57 Baylor 7 5 4.95 1.76 56
58 Houston 5 7 4.63 -1.39 103
59 SMU 7 6 4.51 2.4 44
60 Tennessee 6 6 4.03 2.09 50
61 BYU 6 6 3.98 1.56 62
62 Texas Tech 7 5 3.88 1.5 64
63 Toledo 8 4 3.8 1.9 54
64 Cincinnati 4 8 3.58 3.95 23
65 Army 6 5 3.49 -1.92 107
66 Texas 5 7 3.37 2.37 45
67 Fresno State 8 4 3.36 0.03 81
68 Georgia Tech 6 6 3.27 0.23 78
69 Ohio 8 4 3.27 -4.92 118
70 Boston College 7 5 2.95 2.07 51
71 FIU 6 6 2.22 -1.23 97
72 Syracuse 7 5 2 -2.43 111
73 Troy 7 5 1.92 -1.89 105
74 Arkansas State 4 8 0.74 -0.55 89
75 Iowa State 5 7 0.16 4.5 15
76 East Carolina 6 6 0.13 3.09 33
77 Louisiana Tech 5 7 -0.12 2.32 46
78 Central Michigan 3 9 -0.14 0.18 80
79 Idaho 6 7 -0.36 -1.14 96
80 Colorado 5 7 -0.49 4.01 22
81 Washington 6 6 -0.66 5.61 8
82 Northwestern 7 5 -1.18 -0.89 91
83 Ole Miss 4 8 -1.34 1.51 63
84 Kent State 6 7 -1.4 -2.95 114
85 Miami-OH 9 4 -1.6 -1.3 99
86 Minnesota 3 9 -1.94 5.85 6
87 Rutgers 4 8 -2.67 1.66 58
88 Indiana 5 7 -2.77 0.81 76
89 UCLA 3 8 -3.22 5.14 10
90 Virginia 4 8 -3.58 -1.33 101
91 Marshall 5 7 -3.97 1.93 53
92 UAB 4 8 -4.27 -0.92 92
93 Duke 3 9 -4.29 2.52 41
94 UTEP 6 6 -4.42 -6.98 120
95 Purdue 4 8 -4.46 2.19 49
96 MTSU 6 6 -6.19 -7.4 121
97 North Texas 3 9 -6.46 -2.36 109
98 Utah State 4 8 -6.93 2.19 47
99 Rice 4 8 -7.29 0.86 75
100 Wake Forest 3 9 -7.48 2.9 37
101 Wyoming 3 9 -7.72 1.05 71
102 Bowling Green 2 10 -8.48 1.04 72
103 LA-Monroe 5 7 -8.93 -1.01 94
104 Western Kentucky 2 10 -9.47 -1.29 98
105 Washington State 2 10 -9.5 3.52 29
106 Tulane 4 8 -9.93 -0.14 82
107 Ball State 4 8 -10.92 -5.28 119
108 Florida Atlantic 4 8 -11.77 -1.87 104
109 Kansas 3 9 -11.85 1.56 61
110 UNLV 2 11 -11.91 5.82 7
111 LA-Lafayette 3 9 -11.91 -0.28 87
112 Colorado State 3 9 -12.25 1.64 59
113 Vanderbilt 2 10 -12.38 1.58 60
114 San Jose State 1 12 -13.12 2.19 48
115 Buffalo 2 10 -13.84 -2.38 110
116 Eastern Michigan 2 10 -14.92 0.95 73
117 Akron 1 11 -17.16 -0.89 90
118 Memphis 1 11 -17.82 2.49 42
119 FCS 7 83 -18.6 2.57 40
120 New Mexico State 2 10 -19.58 -0.27 86
121 New Mexico 1 11 -20.43 1.27 67

So let’s suppose this is our RPI. What if we did want to a 24 team tournament as suggested by Adam?  Let’s do the 11 automatic bids and 13 at-large selections for 24 teams overall?  Now, we have final standings:

  • ACC: Virginia Tech
  • Big 12: Oklahoma
  • Big East: West Virginia: UConn won, but WVU is higher in our standings, these are my rules
  • Big Ten: Ohio State (see above)
  • Conference USA: Central Florida
  • MAC: Miami-OH
  • Mountain West: TCU
  • Pac-10: Oregon
  • SEC: Auburn
  • Sun Belt: Florida International
  • WAC: Boise State (3-way tie, go to power rankings)

So this leaves us 13 teams left to select.  We will go to an 8 win minimum to be considered for an at-large.  Why 8 wins?  With a 12 game schedule for almost every team, 8 is more than just being a little above .500.  Who is eligible for an at-large?  I will use basic criteria.  8-win minimum, and no more than 3 teams per conference (4 teams in 12-team leagues):

  • Pac 10: Stanford
  • SEC: Alabama, Arkansas, South Carolina
  • Big 12: Oklahoma State, Missouri, Nebraska
  • Big Ten: Wisconsin, Michigan State
  • WAC: Nevada, Hawaii
  • ACC: Florida State, NC State

Traditionally the S-Curve get you the four regions:

  • 1-8-9-16-17-24
  • 2-7-10-15-18-23
  • 3-6-11-14-19-22
  • 4-5-12-13-20-21

Filling these in with the teams we identified?  Acknowledging the human polls and standings, the top seeds are a little different than the rankings – however it is not a huge change.

  1. TCU-Oklahoma-Oklahoma State-Nevada-Florida State-MiamiOH
  2. Oregon-Alabama-Virginia Tech-South Carolina-West Virginia-FIU
  3. Auburn-Stanford-Arkansas-Nebraska-NC State-UCF
  4. Boise State-Ohio State-Missouri-Wisconsin-Michigan State-Hawaii

Knowing we get byes, we shift seeds around to avoid conference matchups, Michigan State and NC State get swapped around.  Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech are swapped to avoid a late regular season rematch.  The end result?

Region A:

First Round:  Virginia Tech vs Miami-OH; Nevada vs Florida State (Byes: TCU, Oklahoma)

Region B:

First Round: Oklahoma State vs Florida International; South Carolina vs West Virginia (Byes: Oregon, Alabama)

Region C:

First Round: Arkansas vs Central Florida; Nebraska vs Michigan State (Byes: Auburn, Stanford)

Region D:

First Round: Missouri vs Hawaii; Wisconsin vs NC State (byes Boise State, Ohio State)

I know – tilting at windmills, but fun to speculate on anyhoo.

 

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