A New College Football Power Ranking for 2011

While tinkering with the power ranking formula to do something more interesting for 2011, I wanted to do something that remained objective, but did not slavishly lean on scoring margin without accounting for “knowing how to win” (whatever that means).  It is hard to try to do something scientific – but the points based rating of the past was not good enough.  So that methodology becomes a component of a college-hockey inspired pairwise ratings formula.  (I showed how this would work with college basketball before)  However instead, I used a 5 point ratings paradigm.

  • RPI using the NCAA formula for RPI
  • Scoring margin rating (see above)
  • Winning percentage against good (RPI > .500) teams (minimum 4 such games)
  • Head to head (a point per win)
  • Winning percentage vs common opponents

Using that, the pre-bowl formula looked like this:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Auburn 13 0 0.783 (1) 24.551 (5) 118
2 Oregon 12 0 0.748 (2) 24.984 (4) 118
3 TCU 12 0 0.743 (3) 26.074 (3) 118
4 Ohio State 11 1 0.734 (5) 26.614 (2) 117
5 Boise State 11 1 0.731 (7) 29.15 (1) 115
6 Michigan State 11 1 0.731 (6) 14.161 (25) 115
7 Oklahoma 11 2 0.741 (4) 20.735 (9) 114
8 Stanford 11 1 0.731 (8) 22.65 (6) 114
9 Wisconsin 11 1 0.722 (9) 18.567 (13) 111
10 Missouri 10 2 0.716 (10) 18.718 (12) 109
11 Oklahoma State 10 2 0.665 (14) 20.827 (8) 109
12 Nevada 12 1 0.71 (12) 17.217 (16) 108
13 LSU 10 2 0.715 (11) 15.462 (21) 107
14 Arkansas 10 2 0.692 (13) 19.346 (11) 106
15 Virginia Tech 11 2 0.66 (16) 20.388 (10) 105
16 Alabama 9 3 0.653 (17) 21.632 (7) 104
17 Utah 10 2 0.663 (15) 13.344 (27) 103
18 Nebraska 10 3 0.645 (19) 17.512 (15) 102
19 South Carolina 9 4 0.626 (22) 17.636 (14) 101
20 Texas A&M 9 3 0.649 (18) 16.82 (17) 101
21 Florida State 9 4 0.615 (25) 16.34 (18) 100
22 West Virginia 9 3 0.624 (23) 15.924 (20) 98
23 NC State 8 4 0.611 (26) 14.627 (22) 97
24 Hawaii 10 3 0.631 (21) 14.175 (24) 96
25 Northern Illinois 10 3 0.623 (24) 13.059 (28) 96
26 Maryland 8 4 0.593 (32) 9.527 (40) 91
27 UCF 10 3 0.599 (28) 13.054 (29) 90
28 Connecticut 8 4 0.598 (29) 7.091 (48) 88
29 Iowa 7 5 0.544 (46) 16.282 (19) 88
30 Navy 9 3 0.61 (27) 8.735 (43) 88
31 Air Force 8 4 0.597 (30) 11.798 (34) 87
32 Miami-FL 7 5 0.555 (42) 13.695 (26) 87
33 Notre Dame 7 5 0.541 (48) 14.61 (23) 87
34 USC 8 5 0.577 (35) 10.205 (38) 87
35 Tulsa 9 3 0.641 (20) 8.865 (42) 85
36 Arizona 7 5 0.537 (53) 11.211 (36) 81
37 Texas Tech 7 5 0.557 (41) 4.099 (62) 81
38 Mississippi State 8 4 0.588 (33) 11.765 (35) 80
39 Pittsburgh 7 5 0.551 (43) 12.571 (31) 78
40 Ohio 8 4 0.562 (40) 3.226 (68) 76
41 Florida 7 5 0.538 (52) 12.665 (30) 75
42 San Diego State 8 4 0.583 (34) 9.656 (39) 75
43 Illinois 6 6 0.504 (63) 12.369 (32) 74
44 Miami-OH 9 4 0.595 (31) -1.588 (84) 74
45 Penn State 7 5 0.54 (51) 7.795 (45) 73
46 Arizona State 6 6 0.505 (62) 9.224 (41) 72
47 Michigan 7 5 0.549 (45) 5.953 (53) 72
48 North Carolina 7 5 0.541 (49) 6.271 (50) 69
49 Southern Miss 8 4 0.566 (37) 7.38 (47) 69
50 Louisville 6 6 0.465 (74) 7.467 (46) 67
51 Oregon State 5 7 0.473 (71) 8.661 (44) 66
52 SMU 7 6 0.53 (55) 4.863 (59) 66
53 Temple 8 4 0.568 (36) 5.566 (55) 65
54 Kansas State 7 5 0.544 (47) 6.687 (49) 64
55 Toledo 8 4 0.563 (38) 3.806 (64) 64
56 Clemson 6 6 0.497 (65) 11.015 (37) 63
57 Baylor 7 5 0.55 (44) 5.133 (57) 62
58 BYU 6 6 0.51 (61) 4.224 (61) 61
59 East Carolina 6 6 0.513 (58) 0.471 (75) 61
60 Fresno State 8 4 0.563 (39) 3.722 (66) 60
61 Syracuse 7 5 0.513 (59) 2.22 (72) 59
62 South Florida 7 5 0.511 (60) 6.119 (51) 57
63 Boston College 7 5 0.529 (56) 3.101 (69) 55
64 Georgia 6 6 0.5 (64) 12.216 (33) 55
65 Kentucky 6 6 0.467 (73) 5.894 (54) 54
66 Texas 5 7 0.464 (75) 3.77 (65) 54
67 Georgia Tech 6 6 0.486 (68) 3.533 (67) 52
68 Northwestern 7 5 0.54 (50) -0.546 (82) 52
69 FIU 6 6 0.486 (66) 2.542 (71) 51
70 Washington 6 6 0.523 (57) -0.34 (81) 51
71 California 5 7 0.447 (80) 6.076 (52) 48
72 Houston 5 7 0.439 (83) 4.965 (58) 46
73 Colorado 5 7 0.462 (77) -0.238 (80) 45
74 Tennessee 6 6 0.484 (69) 4.56 (60) 45
75 Iowa State 5 7 0.453 (79) 0.439 (76) 44
76 Army 6 6 0.486 (67) 2.975 (70) 43
77 Troy 7 5 0.531 (54) 2.187 (73) 43
78 Western Michigan 6 6 0.468 (72) 5.508 (56) 43
79 Cincinnati 4 8 0.407 (90) 3.823 (63) 38
80 Idaho 6 7 0.476 (70) -0.026 (79) 38
81 Kent State 5 7 0.422 (86) -1.706 (86) 37
82 Louisiana Tech 5 7 0.459 (78) 0.295 (77) 36
83 Marshall 5 7 0.445 (81) -3.688 (91) 35
84 LA-Monroe 5 7 0.437 (84) -8.757 (103) 33
85 Ole Miss 4 8 0.405 (91) -0.833 (83) 33
86 Minnesota 3 9 0.397 (93) -1.684 (85) 32
87 UAB 4 8 0.391 (94) -3.971 (92) 32
88 Indiana 5 7 0.44 (82) -2.525 (88) 31
89 Rutgers 4 8 0.382 (97) -2.543 (89) 30
90 UCLA 4 8 0.418 (87) -2.42 (87) 30
91 Purdue 4 8 0.408 (89) -3.984 (93) 29
92 Virginia 4 8 0.366 (101) -3.03 (90) 28
93 Utah State 4 8 0.411 (88) -6.754 (98) 27
94 UTEP 6 6 0.462 (76) -4.206 (94) 27
95 Arkansas State 4 8 0.388 (95) 1.1 (74) 25
96 Rice 4 8 0.381 (98) -6.966 (99) 24
97 Duke 3 9 0.361 (103) -4.638 (95) 23
98 MTSU 6 6 0.437 (85) -5.943 (96) 23
99 Wyoming 3 9 0.366 (100) -7.521 (101) 21
100 Wake Forest 3 9 0.375 (99) -7.129 (100) 18
101 Central Michigan 3 9 0.36 (104) 0.02 (78) 17
102 Tulane 4 8 0.385 (96) -9.793 (106) 15
103 North Texas 3 9 0.352 (107) -6.261 (97) 14
104 Ball State 4 8 0.363 (102) -11.008 (108) 13
105 Florida Atlantic 4 8 0.399 (92) -11.504 (109) 13
106 Vanderbilt 2 10 0.336 (111) -9.905 (107) 11
107 Washington State 2 10 0.35 (108) -9.211 (105) 11
108 LA-Lafayette 3 9 0.358 (105) -11.636 (111) 10
109 Bowling Green 2 10 0.328 (113) -8.342 (102) 9
110 Colorado State 3 9 0.354 (106) -12.057 (114) 9
111 Kansas 3 9 0.348 (109) -11.754 (113) 8
112 Eastern Michigan 2 10 0.336 (110) -16.463 (116) 6
113 Western Kentucky 2 10 0.322 (115) -9.081 (104) 6
114 Non FBS 7 83 0.334 (112) -18.604 (119) 6
115 UNLV 2 11 0.325 (114) -11.703 (112) 5
116 Buffalo 2 10 0.303 (116) -13.768 (115) 4
117 San Jose State 1 12 0.28 (118) -11.624 (110) 3
118 New Mexico State 2 10 0.297 (117) -19.073 (120) 2
119 Akron 1 11 0.243 (121) -16.962 (117) 0
120 Memphis 1 11 0.267 (120) -17.721 (118) 0
121 New Mexico 1 11 0.276 (119) -20.296 (121) 0

How would this have translated into the BCS in a perfect world (where revenue was less of an issue)?

  • BCS Title Game:  Auburn vs Oregon
  • Rose Bowl: TCU vs Ohio State
  • Sugar Bowl: Michigan State vs Arkansas
  • Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Stanford
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs West Virginia

And the rest of them?

  • Capital One Bowl (Orlando, FL) – Big Ten #2 vs SEC #2 – Wisconsin vs LSU
  • Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, FL) – SEC #6 vs Big Ten #4 – Florida vs Illinois
  • Cotton Bowl (Arlington, TX) – Big 12 #2 vs SEC #3/#4/#5 – Oklahoma State vs Alabama
  • Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, TX) – Big 12 #3 vs Pac-10 #2 – Missouri vs Arizona
  • Outback Bowl (Tampa, FL) – Big Ten #3 vs SEC #3/#4/#5 – Iowa vs Mississippi State
  • Chik-fil-A Bowl (Atlanta, GA) –  ACC #2 vs SEC #3/#4/#5 – Florida State vs South Carolina
  • Sun Bowl (El Paso, TX) – Pac-10 #3 vs ACC #4/Big East #2/ND – Arizona State vs Maryland
  • Holiday Bowl (San Diego, CA) – Big 12 #5 vs Pac-10 #4 – Nebraska vs Washington
  • Champs Sports Bowl (Orlando, FL) – ACC #3 vs Big East #2/ NDMiami-FL vs Notre Dame
  • Liberty Bowl (Memphis, TN) – Conference USA #1 vs SEC #8/#9 – Central Florida vs Kentucky
  • Belk Bowl (Charlotte, NC) – ACC #5 vs Big East #3 – NC State vs Connecticut
  • Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA) – ACC #7 vs Mountain West #3 – Clemson vs Air Force
  • Music City Bowl (Nashville, TN) – ACC #6 vs SEC #7/#8/#9 – North Carolina vs Georgia
  • Pinstripe Bowl (New York, NY) – Big East #4 vs Big 12 #7 – Pittsburgh vs Kansas State
  • Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (San Francisco, CA) – Pac 10 #6 vs WAC #1 – Georgia Tech vs Boise State
  • Texas Bowl (Houston, TX) – Big 12 #6 vs Big Ten #6 – Texas Tech vs Michigan
  • Humanitarian Bowl (Boise, ID) – MAC #3 vs WAC #2 – Ohio vs Nevada
  • Ticket City Bowl (Dallas, TX) – Big Ten #7 vs Big 12 #8 – Northwestern vs Baylor
  • Insight Bowl (Phoenix, AZ) – Big 12 #4 vs Big Ten #5 – Texas A&M vs Penn State
  • Little Caesars Bowl (Detroit, MI) – Big Ten #8 vs MAC #1 – Middle Tennessee vs Miami-OH
  • Hawaii Bowl (Honolulu, HI) – Conference USA #2 vs WAC #3/Hawaii – Tulsa vs Hawaii
  • Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth, TX) – Mountain West #4/Army vs Conference USA #3/ArmyArmy vs Southern Miss
  • Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas, NV) – Mountain West #1 vs Pac-10 #5 – Utah vs Fresno State
  • GoDaddy.com Bowl (Mobile, AL) – Sun Belt #2 vs MAC #2 – Troy vs Northern Illinois
  • Pointsettia Bowl (San Diego, CA) – Mountain West #2 vs Navy – San Diego State vs Navy
  • New Orleans Bowl (New Orleans, LA) – Conference USA #1 vs Sun Belt #1 – SMU vs Florida International
  • Compass Bowl (Birmingham, AL) – Big East #5 vs SEC #8/#9 – Louisville vs Tennessee
  • New Mexico Bowl (Albuquerque, NM) – Mountain West #3/#4 vs Pac-10 #7 – Brigham Young vs Temple
  • Beef O’Brady’s Bowl (Saint Petersburg, FL) – Big East #6 vs Conference USA #5 – Syracuse vs East Carolina
  •  Military Bowl (Washington, DC) – ACC #8 vs Conference USA #6 – Boston College vs Toledo

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s